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Escobar .291/.368/.403, 27 years old
Gonzalez .248/.294/.402, 33 years old
AA seems like an ok GM so far.
This appears to be more about the secondary players received. It's not a terrible deal for the Braves if you see that they gave up Jo-Jo Reyes (who is 25 and having a lousy year in AAA) and got Pastornicky (who is 20 in A+ and doing pretty well there as a SS) and Collins (putting up the cliche'd video-game numbers in AA at 20).
Also mitigating the offense different between Escobar and Gonzalez is that Gonzalez is a much better fielder (this year's UZR so far notwithstanding).
But if all you're concerned about is this year (which is really what the Braves should be concerned about right now anyway), this is an ugly deal for them.
He's only willing to give up talent for crappy shortstops.
I use too many parentheses.
Gonzalez will sit at the bottom of the order and hit some HRs here and there. And he hopefully won't take plays off.
I've never seen him play much, how's Gonzalez' defense? And, can anyone share anything about Tyler Pastornicky?
Fangraphs shows career UZR/150 for Escobar of +4.1 and for Gonzalez of +7.5. That doesn't strike me as a big enough difference to get too excited about (certainly nowhere near enough to make up for the difference in their career numbers on offense).
This really does look like a case of the Braves over-reacting to a bad first half by Escobar and a surprsingly strong first half by Gonzalez. That said, the Braves are a pretty well-run team, so I'm willing to grant that they might have a better feel for how "real" Escobar's first-half numbers are than stat-reading spreadsheet jockeys.
Really? Everything I have been reading says that Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. Gonzalez is good, but not THAT good.
Maybe. You seem to completely discount the fact that Alex Gonzalez has been good this year, and that Yunel Escobar has been horrible. Whether either of those is likely to continue, I don't know. I'm reserving judgment on this right now. I was caught off guard by this, but I'm not shocked that the Braves sent Escobar packing.
The headline portion of the trade is awful, but I know nothing about the minor leaguers involved. Anyone care to elaborate?
Yes--but over the last 3 1/2 years (including 2010) Gonzalez has 25.5 total UZR, while Escobar has 8.5. Gonzalez's career UZR/150 is hurt by an incredibly lousy 1999 (-12.0 UZR), which is a huge outlier in his career.
I agree with Mike A--the Braves were removing a clubhouse problem.
Getting Escobar hopefully means that the Jays have solved the SS hole for more than a single season.
I'll certainly continue to follow Tim Collins' career, that guy is 18 kinds of fun.
Could you please elaborate. Links?
Yeah because the chemistry has been terrible this year, and it's not like the manager is leaving at the end of the year.
Jo-Jo Reyes sucks. If he's your 9th starter, that's okay. Otherwise, trouble. I don't know anything about the guys the Braves got except what's in the excerpt.
He has never been in my kitchen.
Given the recent injury record of Blue Jay pitchers, a 9th starter is a useful thing.
I can only hope that computerized Steve Phillips and John Kruk didn't know what they were talking about.
Escobar's defense is outstanding by Dewan or Totalzone. Both systems like Gonzalez for 2010, but he was closer to average the last few years. Looking at UZR, they both look to be about +5 defenders.
Gonzalez has a very team friendly 2.5 million option after the season, if he can keep this up. Hard to say, he's capable of hitting like Joe Crede/Jose Lopez, or hitting like Adam Everett depending on what year you get him. Escobar will be arbitration eligible for the first time and probably gets about what Sea Bass gets next year. Braves give up any possible surplus value from him for 2012-13.
I don't know enough about the prospects exchanged, or what the story is behind Yunel's complete loss of power this year. I seriously doubt I make this trade though.
--Slump through May 25 (32 games) - 175/271/219
--Hot streak from May 26 to June 23 (27 games) - 352/459/407
--Slump again from June 23 to July 11 (16 games) - 179/246/214
16 games might not be so much to react to, but he's been such a flake that I could see them concluding that they just can't count on him at all, especially as they look at his swing; heck, even during his hot streak it was all BA that was the difference, no power stroke at all.
Tyler Pastornicky, kind of looks like he'll be a utility infielder with strong control of the zone
Tim Collins, who knows? He certainly is exciting
Jojo Reyes - I'm not expecting to see him much
It's half a season. Would you bet on both of them continuing their career years? Regression to the mean is coming.
Exactly. Yeah, based on projections, you'd rather have Escobar. However, a) Escobar plays only when he wants and that seems to change between each pitch, b) he's sucked this year and c) no one seems to be able to stand him. As a guy who watches from afar, I might rather have hung onto him but 27 year olds don't often change their attitudes. Hopefully, for Escobar, he wakes up a little with the change and, hopefully for Braves fans like me, AGon can repeat his first half performance in the second half.
EDIT: IOW, you guys that rate Escobar very high should watch him play. The guy sucks and looks horrible out there. The attitude may not affect us, but if I'm going to play with a shitty SS, I'd rather he be a decent bloke.
I'm sure the Jays can survive on JP Arencibia and Jose Molina for the rest of the year. Everyone can always use a catcher!
The Glaus throw was clearly the last straw, though I can almost guarantee if Benedict Furcal had signed with the Braves that Escobar would have been traded a while back.
I guess this is the great debate....does clubhouse chemistry matter?
Collins is LISTED at 5'7 and from what I've heard is not that tall. He is LH, but it's not 1913.
This and the fact that one is 27 and one is 32. And if that isn't enough, one is paid 2.5M and one is paid less than half a million!
He's pocket-sized. However, at least so far, batters can't make contact against him at all - 128 hits, 294 K, and only 10 HR in 194.2 IP (including 73 K in 43 IP at AA this year). From what I've heard, he also somehow manages to get his fastball in the low 90s, so it's not like he's trick-balling his way through the minors.
Well, I think it would be fair to say that Escobar is more physically talented than Gonzalez anyway.
I know what a careful, rational analysis would say, but I'm very happy with the trade anyway.
Not if Escobar really does have headcase problems that will keep him from being the player he ought to be. One gets no benefit from wasted talent.
Can you read? I followed up what you quoted with, "Whether either of those is likely to continue, I don't know." Thanks for the good question.
EDIT: That was pretty ill-tempered of me. I don't expect Gonzalez to continue to hit for as much power. I would not be surprised if Escobar continues to suck.
Yes--but do we assume, after three productive years, that Escobar has suddenly ceased being the player that he already was?
A Giambi-Mabry gambit then.
Rational analysis says that for this season, it's not even close: Gonzalez has been MUCH better than Escobar.
I can't imagine why any Braves fan would be upset by this trade. They clearly believe that they're in the running to win a possible championship this season, and they're going for it.
But I'm not entirely sure about Yunel. He's hit for NO power the entire season. Still is controlling the strike zone well and a has a nice LD%, so we'll see. My naked eyes tells me that he wasn't pulling anything with authority. Moreover, his calling card used to be hitting oppo-field lasers and those seemed to have tailed off, as well.
You underestimate the awesomeness of Tim Collins.
A possibly astute comparison. The numbers line up for "the Braves screwed the pooch here." But John Mabry outplayed Jeremy Giambi after that trade. I have no idea how this plays out.
It's possible there's something else there....the drop in power is pretty alarming. I think Escobar will improve the 2nd half, but will he get back to 2009 levels...I don't know.
I can guarantee you that the outs AGonz will eat Frenchy-style will matter.
His dropoff in power is so extreme that I don't think it can be explained by luck. There's either an injury there, or a change in approach. Whether he can get over it/get back to what he was doing is an open question.
Under contract through 2012, with a team option for 2013.
Though that will be counteracted by the pop. The Braves were missing some power, particularly at the bottom of the order.
Not to say Gonzalez is Babe Ruth, but at least he's hit some HRs in his past 400 ABs.
I know nothing of the two TOR prospects. I know Escobar, Gonzalez and Jo-Jo Reyes.
FWIW Escobar's BABIP is about 40 points lower than usual. Which could suggest a low liner rate.
Here are his minor league stats. The key points: he's allegedly 5'7", he can allegedly throw in the low 90s, and he strikes out everyone.
I'd guess Escobar is better over the next 2.5 seasons than Gonzalez. That is mostly based on age. But I don't think Escobar will be again as good as he was in 2009. That is based on watching him play this season. If it comes out he's injured, then I'd amend that view.
Whether he ever makes a major league impact or not, I'm pretty sure you'll fall in love with Collins. It's impossible not to!
I'm not saying this is accurate or not (I think I've only seen one Braves game this year, so for me to have any opinion on Escobar would be crazy), but this sounds almost exactly like what a great deal of Jays fans were saying about Rios 10 months ago.
"wat?"
On further consideration this has not changed.
He's like Billy Wagner, only tinier? Cool.
So as it stands now, the Braves don't know what 3/5ths of their infield will be next year. Play with fire...
Slightly taller than a trash can
I know this is the second time in a week I've linked that picture, but it makes me smile.
Edit: Coke to Greg K.
True. And two thirds of their outfield is up for grabs. I guess if you figure you need to re-sign/replace four positions already, what's one more? I'm sure they'll work something out. Freeman may be ready next year. Gonzalez has a team option. They can continue to cobble together left field and center field with what they have.
The remaining 2/5s are All-Stars. Throw in an extra 13M from Chipper's retirement, Freddy Freeman handling AAA at age-20, with AGon's cheap option; Wren should be able to patch something together.
I don't love the trade, since I also think that Collins could be a very interesting pitcher to watch, but I'm pleased with it. After all, it means the Jays have been able to turn a one-year rental into a starting SS with a very good history. As to Pastornicky, if the Jays are viewing him more as a util guy, then it's a tolerable loss to the organization.
Pastornicky could hurt in the long run. I think I may have exaggerated a little bit earlier when I said I saw him as a utility infielder with good control of the zone.
But I think AA saw Pastornicky, Hechavarria, Justin Jackson and the addition of Escobar and figured he could stand to lose Tyler. I can see Pastornicky making it one day, but I think it was a measured, and reasonable risk for AA to take in upgrading SS at the major league level for the next 3 years.
And, surprisingly, Madeleine Albright wasn't involved.
Why do they get to use 5 IF?
It does sound familiar.
Escobar:
2007-2009: 1546 PAs @ .301/.375/.426
2010: 301 PAs @ .238/.334/.284
I cant get past that. Not to mention over the last ~1.5 month, Escobar is .286/.382/.333. Sure the power drop is concerning but w/out looking into it at all, it could just as easily be a fluke.
This deal has got to be about something off the field. Collins isnt that good a prospect to make up the difference. I'm not sure any relief prospect is no matter if 6'7, 5'7 or whatever.
Which is what lets you play with fire, because you know that even if you have to get a warm body or two, you've still got two real good hitters. Plus there's Heyward.
They've certainly got some options and I don't mean to make it sound like they have no direction. Just pointing out that the top team in the NL has most their infield as a giant question mark for next year. And it's not going to clear up any time soon by re-signing a guy, because Chipper's status either way sets a whole bunch of things in motion.
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Martin Prado
SS - TBD
3B - Chipper Jones or Omar Infante, All-Star
Well I guess they could try going to 4 OFs and stock the pitching staff with fly ball pitchers, but something tells me that isn't going to work out too well.
Picture it…
It’s Sunday, September 18, 2010. The Mets enter their final game of the year with the Braves, trailing by 1 game.
Nursing a 4-2 lead in the 9th, with 2 out & 2 on, Francisco Rodriguez gives up a homer into the Mo Zone.
Take a wild guess who hits it?
Mets lose, 5-4 and go 6-6 in their final 12 games. The Braves also go .500 in their last 12 games.
Alex Gonzales win the division for the Braves!
After going 0-7 with 4 first pitch popups and 3 strikeouts, Jimmy Rollins hits a 16th inning game winning home run giving the Phils a 10-2 close to the season, zooming past both the Braves and Mets, setting all right with the world.
I think you're way over-reacting to Escobar's first half. Hell, his OBP is better than A-Gon's right now. The Jays did not give away one of their best pitching prospects for nothing. They traded their second best RELIEF prospects, along with others, for a massive upgrade at SS for 2011-13.
I remember David Hollins going to Seattle for David Ortiz. What were some other good ones along those lines?
Speaking of video game stats, the Braves have quite a stockpile of lefhanded nastiness with Wags, Venters, Dunn and Collins.
No other team in baseball can come close to matching the Braves' left handed relief talent.
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