Can pitchers have a noticeable impact on their BABIP (batting average on balls in play)?
For those with an interest in statistics, a pitcher’s BABIP, or the percentage of balls in play (not including home runs) that result in hits, are largely out of a pitcher’s control when averaged over the course of several years. A favorable batted-ball mix (the ratio of line drives/fly balls/ground balls/popups) can help lower a pitcher’s BABIP over the course of a season, but in general, it will migrate towards .300 over time. As pitchers, we can only control our strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed and groundball/flyball ratios (the latter based on adjusting our pitches and arm angles).
A good way to get a rough idea of what a pitcher is doing to improve his long-term sustainable ERA, independent of luck, is to look up his FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, on a site such as www.fangraphs.com. For example, Paul Splittorff’s career FIP was 3.72, and his career ERA ended up at 3.81, while Bret Saberhagen’s career FIP was 3.26, and his career ERA ended up at 3.34.
...The reason that a pitcher’s ERA does not always match his FIP is that the timing of his hits can vary from year to year. The luck of those hits/homers are much more detrimental with runners on base, which is recorded as percentage of runners left on base, or LOB%. A common LOB% percentage is in the 70-80% range, with anything above that range representing good luck and below that bad luck.
Therefore, you can now see how your favorite pitchers, such as Zack Greinke, are improving from year-to-year. Zack is currently posting a career-best 3.56 FIP, and has the 2.88 ERA to match because of some great pitching with runners on base and an increased ground-ball rate, which has resulted in less home runs allowed.
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1. bibigon Posted: June 04, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2805789)Assuming #1 is serious, I don't think that Bannister is claiming that FIP has predictive value (he says that they are largely out of the pitcher's control). Rather that giving up fewer HR and walks while increasing K are good things, but ultimately the results can be influenced by random chance (i.e., luck) and that ERA is sometimes not indicative of how effective a pitcher has been. That may not seem like revolutionary ideas to someone who has been closely following Voros and others for the past decade or so, but it may be novel to a non-statistically inclined fan.
I was making a crack at the contingent of people who think Voros taught us nothing useful about anything.
Of course anyone who's sporting a 93 ERA+ is gonna blame that on bad luck. :-)
Well, he did read the article from a laptop in his mom's basement.
My question has to do with the necklaces a lot of the Royals seems to be wearing. They all seem to be of the same style. Is there any significance to that? Do they symbolize something?
My question has to do with the necklaces a lot of the Royals seems to be wearing. They all seem to be of the same style. Is there any significance to that? Do they symbolize something?
Ha. I saw that. The funny thing, its the exact same question from Dick Kaegel's last mailbag.
That show would rock.
"Hi, I'm Brian Bannister. Tonight on In Focus my guests are Kenny Williams, Tim Conway, and from the upcoming movie Confessions of a Shopaholic, Krysten Ritter. Plus we'll have a special musical performance via satellite by Trace Adkins. But first, let's go to correspondent Jose Guillen in Davos, where he's speaking to World Bank president Robert Zoellick about new microfinance initiatives in southeast Asia."
That is the first time I ever heard Backlasher referred to as a contingent.
My appearance fee is $10,000.
What's your disappearance fee?
;-)
-- Matt H.
Matt, the necklaces you are referring to are worn by players all over Major League Baseball and other sports, as well. They are made by Phiten, Co. (www.phitenusa.com), and contain a unique form of charged, water-soluble titanium. Athletes wear them to enhance circulation, promote relaxation and help relieve stress. We are given customized necklaces with team logos and colors on them in order to match our uniforms. Many players notice a difference when wearing them, or continue to wear them for superstitious reasons/good luck.
D'oh! There's such a thing as having an open mind, and then there's having a mind so open that your brain falls out.
Gaelan is even worse. Backlasher at least would tell you it's a truism that it's good to have pitchers that get strikeouts while avoiding walks and home runs. Gaelan would tell you that it's morally wrong to focus on those components.
The entire Japanese team wore them during the World Baseball Classic. Which they won.
Thanks. You guys have me reading some of Gaelan's stuff on other threads. Some don't like him, but I find him thought-provoking.
They also all wore pants. From this, we learn that pants lead to winning.
Think about it - every World Series winning team has worn pants.
$20,000.
Think about it - every World Series winning team has worn pants.
I think you just declared yourself the mortal enemy of Smitty*
Gaelan and I go back forever. When I tease him like I did, it's lighthearted and affectionate. If his declarations of evil disappeared from BTF, we would all be the poorer for it.
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