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Tuesday, January 02, 2018

MLB Buzz: Trade talk, deals and rumors

Is this Boras just priming the pump?

J.D. Martinez, regarded as the best hitter available on the free-agent market, has a five-year offer on the table from the Red Sox, according to USA TODAY Sports.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 02, 2018 at 04:58 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents, j.d. martinez, red sox

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   1. Khrushin it bro Posted: January 02, 2018 at 06:28 PM (#5599838)
7 year deal for Hosmer? Sounds like a bad idea.
   2. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: January 02, 2018 at 06:57 PM (#5599853)
7 year deal for Hosmer? Sounds like a bad idea.


Given his every-other-year-itis -- and 2018 meaning it starts with a down year -- I agree. Better to go 6 or 8.
   3. A triple short of the cycle Posted: January 02, 2018 at 07:28 PM (#5599859)
with 87 assists and just six errors behind the plate

First time I've ever seen catcher assists cited. Wow 87 assists! ... Is that a lot?
   4. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: January 02, 2018 at 07:55 PM (#5599864)
Wow 87 assists! ... Is that a lot?


87 will lead the NL about as often than not. It would have been a league leading total in 5 of the last 10 years. More often in the sillyball era when there was less stealing, less often in the 70's and 80's when there was more.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:35 PM (#5599902)
As I said in the other thread, Hosmer doesn't make sense for the Padres ... they have Wil Myers under control for 5 more years ($78) plus an option ($20). Myers could move back to the OF but he was never particularly good out there -- basically he and Hosmer are the same player and Myers is a year younger, so what's the point? I don't know why anybody would be too interested in Hosmer but he makes more sense on the Cards than the Padres. And if I'm in the market for a 1B and Hosmer does sign with the Padres, then I call them and see how much of Myers' salary they are willing to eat to move him.

With Moreland around, a JDM signing would mean the end of Hanley in Boston or maybe a trade of JBjr (not recommended unless getting a nice return). (Yes, Hanley could be the short end of a 1B platoon and back-up DH and soak up 250-300 PA with no defensive contribution if you're going to pay him anyway, but really might as well release him at that point. I suppose if you ate all but a few million, you could trade him for a bag of balls.)

   6. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5600076)
It’s being reported that the Royals have offered Hosmer 7 years and $147MM, topping San Diego’s offer.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: January 03, 2018 at 03:44 PM (#5600306)
I've got detail in the other thread but that's not an outrageously stupid offer for Hosmer. Depends what you really think about his defense and what you think $/WAR is right now and where it will be over the next 7 years ... but I roughly project a solid defensive Hosmer for about 18 WAR over the next 7 years so call that about $8/WAR to maybe $9/WAR. We thought it was about $8/WAR a couple of years ago which means it should be closing in on $9 and we might expect it to average about $10 over the 7 years. (Bad defense Hosmer projects to about 12 WAR and definitely isn't worth signing for more than 3-4 years.) 7-year contracts for average-ish players are best to be avoided but intangibles and stuff -- I couldn't call it an obvious disaster, it's just the most meh FA contract imaginable.

Comps in the other thread but basically they were in a range of 9-24 WAR and all were at least still in the majors at ages 33-34 when this contract would run out. The better defensive players by Rfield (and Konerko) were in the top half of that distribution; the worst defensive players were in the bottom half. To put that in other terms, the oWAR distribution was a little tighter, roughly 12-21 oWAR ... so call my Hosmer projection 15 oWAR +/- 30 Rfield ... not that it's actually anywhere near so precise as that but it sounds good.
   8. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5600405)
I'll take the under on 18 WAR for Hosmer over the next 7 years. Way under.
   9. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5600414)
I'll take the under on 18 WAR for Hosmer over the next 7 years. Way under.


Maybe not way under, but I figure (2) 3 WAR seasons, (3) 2 WAR seasons and a (2) 1 WAR specials for around 14 WAR in total...yeah I suppose that's way under by nearly 23%. I think your position is correct. I know Walt has Hosmer comped to guys like Grace, but holy smokes Grace was consistently better with both the stick and leather. Hosmer is like Grace's 25th percentile projection. To put it another way, if Grace gave you a typical Hosmer year, you'd be really disappointed. Someone comped Hosmer to Dan Driessen, that seemed a better fit. A few nearly 3 WAR seasons interspersed with some 1 WAR seasons, that looks like Hosmer thus far. Also Driessen was done by 31, so the last 2-3 years on that Hosmer offer could be painful.
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:38 PM (#5600419)
Let me just add that I am NOT a fan of Hosmer and am definitely letting it cloud my judgement. Jose and I went back and forth on Hosmer with respect to the Red Sox as I did not want DD anywhere near this guy. I'd be curious as to what they have offered JD?
   11. BDC Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5600424)
Ideally I guess Hosmer would be attractive, even if overpaid, to a team with some money to spend that might be able to get to a couple of the next three postseasons if only they had a plausible first baseman. This might have been Seattle before they traded for Ryon Healy, or Boston before Moreland cast another spell on them, or the pre-Yonder-Alonso-era Indians. Or Baltimore if they weren't already spending a bajillion dollars on Chris Davis, or Colorado if they weren't paying Ian Desmond, or Detroit if they were preparing to win anytime soon.

Which leaves … Kansas City, actually, given that I agree San Diego has no need for Hosmer on several counts. Unfortunately for Hosmer, perhaps, he doesn't represent an upgrade on a lot of teams' first basemen. But fortunately teams are bidding on him. I just don't know why San Diego would start the bidding at 7/140.
   12. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5600426)
FWIW, I'd project Hosmer at something like
- age 28: 2.5
- age 29: 2.5
- age 30: 2.5
- age 31: 2.0
- age 32: 1.5
- age 33: 1.0
- age 34: 0.5

That's 12.5 WAR. And that's also assuming he stays healthy for the duration of the contract. He's just not someone that I would want to commit to for many years past the age of 30.
   13. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:02 PM (#5600443)
That seems harsh for a 27 year old who has 3.6 WAR and 4.0 WAR seasons in his last 3 years.

28: 3
29: 3
30: 3
31: 2.5
32: 2
33: 1.5
34: 1

That's 16 WAR and I've seen projections from 12.5 to 18 on this thread. 7 years, $125M seems like a fair contract. He has a problem that the teams that value him highly (Padres, Royals) aren't contenders and are unlikely to become contenders partly thanks to the large Hosmer contract.
   14. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:08 PM (#5600447)
That seems harsh for a 27 year old who has 3.6 WAR and 4.0 WAR seasons in his last 3 years.

Selective end points.

I don't really care about the Padres or Royals, so they're welcome to pay him whatever. But I'm pretty certain that it will be a terrible contract that will prevent that team from contending for the better part of a decade.
   15. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:25 PM (#5600456)
Hosmer is the walking definition of mediocre. He could be good, he could be poor. But chances are he is averagish. You don't give mediocre players 7 years. It's ridiculously stupid. Long contracts are the price you pay superstars to get them to sign, not mediocrities. If you can't get a mediocrity to sign for 3 years or so, just go find a different mediocrity. Way too much risk, and no reasonable chance for getting something great.

I have to disagree with Walt. 7/147 is an outrageously stupid offer.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 03, 2018 at 06:57 PM (#5600480)
Hosmer is the walking definition of mediocre. He could be good, he could be poor. But chances are he is averagish. You don't give mediocre players 7 years. It's ridiculously stupid. Long contracts are the price you pay superstars to get them to sign, not mediocrities. If you can't get a mediocrity to sign for 3 years or so, just go find a different mediocrity. Way too much risk, and no reasonable chance for getting something great.

I have to disagree with Walt. 7/147 is an outrageously stupid offer.


Co-sign.

Why would you give Hosmer $140M when you could have had Carlos Santana for $65M? Santana is a better player.
   17. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:08 PM (#5600547)
I also agree. Why would anyone want to lock up Hosmer for 7 years? 4 years seems plenty for any player, let alone Hosmer.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2018 at 08:53 PM (#5601123)
#8-#9 and others ... sorry, you've got to show your work. Mainly the KEY QUESTION -- WHAT ARE YOU ASSUMING IS HOSMER'S DEFENSIVE VALUE?

If Hosmer is remotely deserving of 4 GG than his career bWAR is vastly under-stated. Over the last 3 years, he has 10 oWAR. Add in +20 on defense and you've got a 4-WAR player. Over the last 5 years, it's 13 oWAR, add in +20-30 on defense and he's a 3-WAR player. In both cases, he's a player in his prime and every indicator we have is that he is not at risk of an early decline. That player is still in MLB at 33-34 and is the player projected to about 18 WAR over 7 years.

If Hosmer is sub-par defensively then you have bWAR and that is a player who is projected to about 12 WAR over the next 7 years although still a good chance to be playing at 33-34.

Is he really a +5 defensive 1B or really a -5 defensive 1B. I have no idea and I doubt there are many here who do.

As to the comps ... there were Driessen types in my comp list of Hosmer. About 1/3 of the comps ended up between 9-12 WAR, Driessen fits right in. About 1/3 ended up about 13-16 WAR. About 1/3 ended up 17-22 WAR. (All for ages 28-34, all corner players.) As it turned out, except for Konerko, the guys at the top were the average or better defenders (per Rfield); the guys at the bottom (except for Casey) were the below-average defenders. Leading to: IF HOSMER IS A SOLID DEFENDER, HE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF ENDING UP IN THAT TOP GROUP; IF HE IS BELOW-AVERAGE, HE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF ENDING UP IN THAT BOTTOM GROUP.

Which of those do you want to sign onto? If you are assuming Hosmer is (will be) a solid defender at 1B and taking the "way under" on 18, you need to explain how you came to that conclusion. If you are assuming bRef has him pegged right then I agree that he does not project to 18 WAR, I'm saying that guy probably projects to about 12. Or do you want to say it's 50/50 and go for the middle-ish 14 WAR projection?

As to Grace (or any other comp) -- I don't recall what the criteria were and P-I doesn't save that info. Based on the saved table (bbref.com/pi/shareit/IFFSN), it looks like ages 23-27, negative dWAR (best is -1.7), OPS+ of 110-124 and probably limited to 1B/LF/DH and maybe RF.

Grace didn't even make the majors until age 24. For 24-27, he averaged a 116 OPS+, totalling 10.1 oWAR and 10.6 WAR, he'd be a bit better but Rfield gives him a -11 in his rookie year. From 24-27, Hosmer averaged a 115 OPS+ with 10.4 oWAR and 9.4 WAR. I can't imagine how I could possibly consider them similar players. Grace did have the advantage of a much better OBP and he is 2 WAA ahead ... but about 1.5 of that WAA is Rfield. Note also that Hosmer is credited with a 3-WAR season at age 23 while Grace was in the minors so that season is not being counted in this paragraph.

But he doesn't play a big role in the projections, I generally downplayed him.

Grace 26 WAR
D Lee 23
Konerko 19

... so "good defense" Hosmer only projects to #4 on the list.

Joyner 16 (on just 3600 PA)
Chambliss 15
Morneau 14 (on just 3200 PA)

... so the range from Morneau to Lee (no Grace) is 14 to 23 with good Hosmer smack in the middle. Morneau represents the health downside of this top group. Give him one more pre-concussion season and he's at 17-18 WAR; give him two and he's in Konerko-Lee territory. Given Joyner one more healthy season and he's at 18-19 WAR.

Moroever, by Rfield/TZ, Grace became a very good defensive 1B. The gap between him and Lee and him and Konerko is all defense. But Morneau, Chambliss, Joyner and Lee were all credited with 18-22 Rfield -- nothing dramatic, an average of about +3 per full season.

You can focus just on oWAR if you want. In that original list, Hosmer is 3rd in oWAR for ages 23-27 but also first in PA. So he was clearly not as good offensively as Baylor or Matthews, probably not as good as Morneau; roughly equal to Joyner, Lee, Sexson and Grace; better than Chambliss, Burrell, Konerko and Casey. So, right in the middle.

From ages 28-34, the three guys better than him put up 20, 14 and 12 oWAR. Morneau was the 12 so a healthy Morneau probably would have put up 16-20.

The four guys equal to him put up 21, 21, 14, and 12. I don't recall how much of Sexson's fall was injury vs. sudden crapitude but all 12 oWAR came in the first 2100 PA.

The guys who were worse than him put up 21, 13, 12 and 8 owAR.

Other than Sean Casey (a good Hosmer comp in "intangible" ways too), there's no real difference in oWAR outcomes among those three groups. There was no real middle ground either -- you put up 20 or you put up 12-14. So it often goes with small comp sets. Still, if we had to put a number on it, we'd have to stick Hosmer right in the middle somewhere, call it 16 oWAR ... or 14-18 if you want a range ... or 12-21.

So I slice it and slice it and slice it and can't see any good reasons not to put Hosmer's WAR projection right about the middle of this group's outcomes. And since we're particularly uncertain about this guy's defense, we add/subtract another couple of wins for defense. And if he is the bad defensive version (or the offense slumps), then he probably loses playing time and therefore WAR at ages 33-34.

So 16 oWAR +/- 20 Rfield and (-20 Rrep conditional on performance 28-32) leads me to about 12 for bad Hosmer and 18 for good Hosmer.

Season with injury risk to taste (note, some injury/collapse risk is already cooked into those comps). "Worst-"case scenario is Sean Casey. Best case is some mix of Grace, Lee, Konerko, healthy Morneau.

As to Driessen, he probably missed this comp list due to a PA cutoff as he was a full-time in only 3 of these 5 seasons, 2326 PA overall. He had a 113 OPS+, -6 Rfield, -4 dWAR, mostly 1B with a bit of LF. He did indeed fall apart relatively early but was still in the majors at 35. He totaled only 3000 PA from 28-34, some lost to the 81 strike, the rest lost to some combo of injury, platooning and mediocrity. He ended up with 11 oWAR, -16 Rfield, 10 WAR -- roughly Sean Casey.

But the PT thing kinda kills him as a Hosmer comp. He had just 7 WAR, 7 oWAR from ages 23-27. His best season early in his career was 2.3 WAR, career-best was 2.6 while Hosmer already has seasons of 3.5, 3.6 and 4.0. A lot of that difference might have to do with coming up into a very good team where it was hard to find playing time, plus the larger position player rosters and more frequent platooning -- i.e. maybe Driessen would have put up Hosmer WAR numbers if he'd gotten the PT -- but it's a bit of a leap to call him a good comp. In Driessen's defense, adjusting for PT, he was much more consistent than Hosmer ... but who isn't?

As I've said several times, I wouldn't sign him for 7 years. I'd be reluctant to even go 5 years -- I might regret having him around for the next couple of seasons but I expect him to be an average 1B soon enough. But if I believed he was a plus defensive 1B, had a hole at 1B, didn't have an obvious prospect nearly ready, I'd go for 5/$100 give or take. But he's not a good enough player under any circumstances for me to go out of the way to add.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 04, 2018 at 09:38 PM (#5601151)
#8-#9 and others ... sorry, you've got to show your work. Mainly the KEY QUESTION -- WHAT ARE YOU ASSUMING IS HOSMER'S DEFENSIVE VALUE?

If Hosmer is remotely deserving of 4 GG than his career bWAR is vastly under-stated.


Why would we give any credence to the gold gloves? Didn't Jeter permanently disprove their value? Not to mention Palmeiro.

Both DRS and UZR agree that he's been a bad 1B over his career (-3 and -4 per season respectively). He's not terrible,but there's no real evidence that he's good.

He doesn't make errors (+11.5 ErrR for his career) so he looks smooth, and gets GG votes. But his range stinks (-39 RangeR career).

Range seems like the thing the defensive stats are most likely to get right, especially for a 1B. You either get to the balls or you don't. There's not a lot of unorthodox positioning going on at 1B.

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