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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
437 career infield hits? As my old Babe Ruth League manager, Mickey McPielsburp used to say…“A walks as good as an infield hit!”
To become eligible for enshrinement, a player must play at least 10 years in the Major Leagues, be retired for five years, and make it through a screening committee composed of members of the Baseball Writers Association of America.
Let the debate begin.
Molitor, inducted into the Hall in 2004, was the Mariners’ hitting coach when Ichiro broke Sisler’s single-season hit record that same season. He was non-committal about Ichiro being a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer.
“He’s going to be an interesting one,” Molitor said. “There never has been a crossover player, someone coming to America after playing in another country for several years. [The Hall of Fame] is not all about hits, but the impact a player has on American baseball and that is something the baseball writers will have to decide.
“Ichiro has done things most people can’t put their arms around, like having four 50-hit months [in 2004],” Molitor added. “Most players are lucky to have one 50-hit month a year. He has had an incredible run so far and opened doors to a lot of [position] players from Japan.”
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Well, if you want to compare in terms of games played, Ichiro is on pace to pass Walker some time in the middle of the 2012 season, which would be the middle of Ichiro's 12th year in the league. At that point, he's likely to have accumulated comparable offensive rate value (as captured in something like EQA), and still likely to have at least a couple seasons of regular playing time left in him. That density of performance has a lot more value to a team than a similar quantity of performance spread unevenly over 5 extra seasons.
as soon as i looked at the threads, i realized that it's pointless. add that to the fact that one of the thread covers the translations and there's no need to rehash it here. i will say, though, that if as davenport found, an EQA in japan is worth about .946 of an EQA in MLB, then throwing out any of his japan numbers is insane. it increases my appreciation for what he's done.
Well, it makes sense in a way. Like the belief that we should be careful to totally ignore postseason performance when considering Hall of Fame qualifications, because not all players had the same opportunity to perform in the postseason, which was the subject of this other thread (the only Google hit for the phrase "No one is arguing that except Ray"). That makes sense, but accepting that it makes sense leads most people to figure that the whole idea of determining HOF eligibility by a totally objective assessment is impossible.
What's most annoying about Ray's commentary is his absolute refusal to acknowledge the circumstances of Ichiro's life before coming to the US. This "1364 games" nonsense is beyond tiresome. There are reasons and explanations and mitigating factors that show the scope of Ichiro's accomplishments to far exceed what Ray's crediting him with, and it's only willful intransigence that prevents Ray from admitting it. When I'm not annoyed by it, it's actually fascinating to conjecture why he's really wearing those blinders.
He's miles past a cinch on the HOF monitor and hasn't picked a lot of career milestone points. Doesn't do nearly as well on the standards, which is where we came in more or less. A big batting average still matters a lot.
Most of the voters will believe he's a better offensive player than Tim Raines.
Well, "he grew up in Japan" is not exactly Satchel Paige territory. Ichiro could have played in MLB, if he had wanted to. It was not impossible.
It was impossible for Paige.
I don't care if he had hit 1.000 in Japan. It's irrelevant to the HOF. It's a very elementary (some might say self-evident) position.
I think the bizarre notion here is that people *would* consider his NPB time relevant, not that someone wouldn't. (I note that, FWIW, Sean doesn't list Ichiro's NPB stats on Ichiro's b-r page.)
That depends on whether Ray thinks he "could have played in MLB", by demanding a trade from the Mariners to some other team, or if "it was impossible", because by doing that he would have torpedoed his career or maybe delayed it even more.
So far:
8 straight seasons of 200+ hits
8 straight seasons of 100+ runs scored
8 straight seasons of 30+ SB
8 straight seasons of .300+ BA
8 straight Gold Glove awards
8 straight seasons of MVP recognition + 1 MVP award
2 Silver Slugger awards
2 Batting Titles
ROY award
Black Ink score of 35 vs. an HOF average of 27
Grey Ink score of 116 vs. an HOF average of 144
HOF Standard score of 33 vs. an HOF average of 50
Plus defender in terms of both range and arm
Plus base runner in terms of both SB and taking the extra base
Granted, many, if not most, of the above numbers and achievements are not what many/some of the BBTF crowd thinks are worthy of enshrinement; however, they are indisputably what the HOF voting crowd thinks are.
This is amusing. I actually agree with this point. However it is a pretty rich example of parsing minutia coming from someone whose entire argument is lets ignore fielding and baserunning because if a player needs extra credit to get in the hall of famer then he isn't a hall of famer.
And to make things personal this is typical Diperna sophistry. He isn't interested in conversation he's interested in claiming some imaginary internet debating crown by scoring points with slight of hand and word games. It's dishonest and disengeneous. There is no reason to take anything he says seriously. His arguments are a mishmash of inconsistent claims and disjointed logical claims parsed together in favour of whatever position he decided was right 20 years ago when he received the tablets of all that is good from the baseball gods of Ayn Rand. Look at any thread. This is how he argues about politics, this is how he argues about baseball and this is how he argues about the hall of fame. And yes there is no way he will be swayed because he has never, ever, changed his mind about anything.
They don't want to elect Sadaharu Oh, or give Hideki Matsui credit for his Japan time.
Just Ichiro.
I'm not pro or anti Ichiro or Gar. Asking a legitimate question.
wrong. Oh should be in. the problem with matsui is that even with his japanese stats he's probably not a hall of famer.
sorry, but the competitive difference between AAA and NPB is almost exactly the difference b/w AAA and MLB. add to that the fact that he only played 3 years at AAA, and played in the PCL (greater disparity of competition b/w AAA and MLB), and I don't think you're adding as much career value as you think you are.
I'll admit this. I think it is preposterous that Martinez would get credit for his time in the minor leagues. I also think it is preposterous to not give Ichiro credit for Japan. These are completely consistent positions.
Quite the broad brush there. That statement doesn't even hold up to scrutiny of the previous threads linked to earlier in this one. A good many are willing to credit Martinez for his minor league stats, objections to Oh are purely on eligibility, and some pro-Ichiro folks have been willing to credit Matsui and even Roberto Frickin' Petagine with partial or even whole credit for their time in Japan.
I agree that I don't care to give Martinez much credit, but it's a total red-herring attack unless Ray can single out anybody in particular who has stated both those positions. I haven't seen it.
It's a total red herring because AAA and Japan have nothing to do with each other. It's just a cheap debating trick designed to confuse people.
Why do you assume I'm using other people's programs? This is 100% false. Main reason is nobody has ever published a program to calculate arm ratings, so I had to do it myself. In any case, whether you agree with the ratings or not that is one freakin weird comment considering you don't know (and couldn't possibly know unless you hack into my computer) anything about how it's done.
And yes, every base Ichiro stops somebody from taking comes out of some other player's baserunning runs. And every extra base taken hurts some outfielder just as much as it helps the baserunner.
Everyone who watches Ichiro knows the guys is really fast, covers a ton of ground, and can throw. So when the numbers confirm these things it's not like some random number is being credited to some big oaf like Pat Burrell.
Who cares? Give Roberto full credit and he's a poor man's Jason Giambi. At best Matsui would be Jim Rice, nowhere close to HOF value.
I'm not trying to "confuse" anything. For the 5th time, I'm not debating either side; I was legitimately curious what people's positions were vis-a-vis Martinez.
Nope. At least not with the voters.
Gavvy Cravath is probably the clearest evidence of that. Clearly a HOF level talent when he was finally able to play in the majors. Never came particularly close to making it.
There is of course an awful lot of air to let out of Martinez's stats. I get his AA stats as not good enough to play -- hell you don't need to run an MLE on them. He played in good places to hit and never slugged .400. Raw OBP was good but you know that'll come way down. And I get his AAA stats at .283/.340/.382 (using a quick and dirty calc with park factors from a few years after he was there -- it should be close). I don't care how long that's maintained for it adds zip to a HOF case.
Yeah, still better than Jim Presley but the decision to keep him down in the hopes that he'd eventually learn to drive the ball doesn't seem nutty to me now that I look at it.
And because he, you know, stays healthy.
Even without the intangibles or any credit for his Japan years, he already has a HOF monitor of 185, which is higher than Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan and many other greats. No eligible player above him on that list is not in the Hall. With the exception of Mark McGwire, you have to go down the list to Don Mattingly with 133 to find an eligible player who isn't in, although the steroids era and Coors Field may screw that up.
(2) I think the only ways Ichiro doesn't make the HOF is if he is found to have taken steroids, gets caught running a dogfighting ring, or has a long, painful decline phase that makes people forget how good he was. In the latter case, he still may get in eventually if the writers
(3) It seems silly to have a big argument over his HOF case now, when he's only 35 and shows little sign of slowing down. He could still reach 3,000 hits in the U.S. alone, and his combined U.S.-Japan total could top Pete Rose.
Would he even be eligible? You need 10 years, yes?
No it's not.
Yes. However, they did let Addie Joss in with 9. He died of meningitis right before his 10th season would have begun. Satchel Paige (6), Monte Irvin (8), and Willard Brown (1) are also in with less than 10 seasons. Paige and Brown obviously got in mostly due to their accomplishments in the Negro Leagues. Among those 3, Irvin is probably the most comparable to Ichiro in that he started playing in MLB in his prime and was (pretty much) immediately a major star. Irvin was a little older than Ichiro when he first got to play, but he finished 3rd in the MVP voting in his 2nd full season. I'm not comparing NPB to the Negro Leagues, I'm just listing guys who made the HOF with less than 10 seasons.
Except for those 4, the rest of the guys in the Hall of Fame who played in MLB but for less than 10 seasons are in either as managers, pioneers/executives, or umpires.
Ichiro's EQA is already 9 points shy of Walker's with no decline phase yet. Ichiro is 145 BRAA behind Walker and needs about another 5 seasons at his typical rate (without decline or missed time) to catch up. EQA doesn't include non-SB baserunning or defense of course. Walker was no slouch in either department though.
Did BPro change their defensive stats? I'd swear that Walker used to a 100ish WARP player, now he's at 63. Hmmm... they've definitely done something, McGwire is now down to 77 and he used to be in the low 100s. Did they finally "fix" their replacement level?
I'm a little curious as to why H Matsui isn't a good HoF candidate if Japan stats count. 304/413/582 in Japan in nearly 1300 games. Between MLB and Japan, he's played in over 2100 games, has 459 HR, 1405 runs, 1438 RBI, 435 doubles, 1235 BB. He's 8 months younger than Ichiro and is still carrying a 130 OPS+ (though let's wait to see what those end of year PFs look like). If Japan stats count, he's Fred McGriff at least.
If someone ever invented a set of improved similarity scores that work with shorter career slices, they might choose Ichiro as a test case.
From the article, the top 10 comparable seasons to Ichiro's 2001 are
First Last Year BB 1B 2B 3B HR SB Outs BA OBP SLG LWRuns SSDistIchiro Suzuki 2001 30 192 34 8 8 56 450 .350 .377 .457 46.4 0.0
Juan Pierre 2004 45 184 22 12 3 45 457 .326 .368 .407 30.5 14.4
Ichiro Suzuki 2006 49 186 20 9 9 45 471 .322 .367 .416 32.6 14.5
Ralph Garr 1971 30 180 24 6 9 30 420 .343 .372 .441 32.2 14.9
Willie Wilson 1980 28 184 28 15 3 79 475 .326 .352 .421 38.3 15.3
Richie Ashburn 1951 50 181 31 5 4 29 422 .344 .391 .426 35.8 15.4
Steve Sax 1989 52 171 26 3 5 43 446 .315 .366 .387 25.0 15.9
Sam Rice 1920 39 170 29 9 3 63 413 .338 .377 .428 40.9 16.7
Matty Alou 1969 42 183 41 6 1 22 467 .331 .369 .411 25.0 17.0
Sam Rice 1925 37 182 31 13 1 26 422 .350 .385 .442 35.6 17.1
Frankie Frisch 1923 46 169 32 10 12 29 418 .348 .392 .485 47.3 17.8
Sorry. I was going by the numbers that Ray quoted (0.298 for Ichiro, and 0.303 for Walker). I should have checked to make sure they were right.
I know they changed it to raise replacement level, to something closer to the value used by Tango and AROM. I believe it was done late in the last offseason, and would explain a big part of the drop in WARP that you've observed. From what I remember, it's still lower than that used by most others (and I have no idea how it compares to Dan R's replacement level).
For Ichiro, it's +35 avoiding DPs, +4 reaching on error, +75 defensive range, +34 defensive arm
For Walker, it's +13 avoiding DPs, -9 reaching on error, +41 defensive range, +55 defensive arm
So, that gives Ichiro about fifty runs. If we use BRAA for the rest, Ichiro needs about three seasons at his typical rate to catch up.
Are you talking about a 1:1 comparison or an MLE of Japanese stats? A rule of thumb is that while singles, doubles, and triples stay about the same, homeruns need to be cut in half in the transfer. Try that for both Matsuis, Johjima, Ichiro, Iguchi, and Fukudome, and you can create a statline that appears a bit more seamless - it wouldn't be obvious at first glance what year he moved over.
I am glad to hear that your arm ratings reconcile with baserunning runs. I have never seen that question posited or rebutted.
I don't mean to discount the work you have done. It is tremendous. I think it misses defensively, but that doesn't mean it isn't terrific work.
As for Gaelan, I have never invented or developed any kind of offensive stat, and use them all the time. You could be more wrong, but I am not sure how.
"I think the ARM ratings are terrible. Couldn't be wronger."
Which is way over the top. I can make up an arm rating that "couldn't be wronger" which would be to show Roberto Clemente as the noodlest arm ever, and Juan Pierre as the supreme gun of today, with people comparing his mighty cannon to that of the legendary Bernie Williams.
Since I'm not doing that, and I generally have the guys who can throw rated well and those who can't rated poorly, I think we're just disagreeing on run impact. If I get a chance one of these days I'll take a season, maybe Ichiro's best throwing year, and break it down by specific situation and show how he compares to league average and how many runs I'm giving him. That should either answer the critics or force me to redo the run weights.
Richie Sexson, come on down!
Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SH SF HBP AVG OBP SLG----------------------------------------------------------------
1992 98 95 24 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 .253 .276 .305
1993 66 64 12 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 .188 .212 .266
1994 597 546 210 41 5 6 51 0 0 0 .385 .437 .511
1995 592 524 179 23 4 12 68 0 0 0 .342 .417 .469
1996 598 542 193 24 4 8 56 0 0 0 .356 .416 .459
1997 598 536 185 31 4 8 62 0 0 0 .345 .413 .463
1998 549 506 181 36 3 6 43 0 0 0 .358 .408 .476
1999 456 411 141 27 2 10 45 0 0 0 .343 .408 .491
2000 453 395 153 22 1 6 54 0 0 4 .387 .466 .494
2001 738 692 242 34 8 8 30 4 4 8 .350 .381 .457
2002 728 647 208 27 8 8 68 3 5 5 .321 .388 .425
2003 725 679 212 29 8 13 36 3 1 6 .312 .352 .436
2004 762 704 262 24 5 8 49 2 3 4 .372 .414 .455
2005 739 679 206 21 12 15 48 2 6 4 .303 .350 .436
2006 752 695 224 20 9 9 49 1 2 5 .322 .370 .416
2007 736 678 238 22 7 6 49 4 2 3 .351 .396 .431
2008 749 686 213 20 7 6 51 3 4 5 .310 .361 .386
2009 393 369 134 19 3 6 19 2 1 2 .363 .396 .480
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tot. 10329 9448 3217 427 90 136 783 24 28 46 .340 .393 .448
Actually you know what...damn, I just removed the HRs instead of, say, changing them to doubles. They're just singles now. Ugh.
Alright, here's what it looks like if you change the missing homers to doubles:
Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SH SF HBP AVG OBP SLG----------------------------------------------------------------
1992 98 95 24 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 .253 .276 .305
1993 66 64 12 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 .188 .212 .266
1994 597 546 210 48 5 6 51 0 0 0 .385 .437 .524
1995 592 524 179 36 4 12 68 0 0 0 .342 .417 .494
1996 598 542 193 32 4 8 56 0 0 0 .356 .416 .474
1997 598 536 185 40 4 8 62 0 0 0 .345 .413 .479
1998 549 506 181 43 3 6 43 0 0 0 .358 .408 .490
1999 456 411 141 38 2 10 45 0 0 0 .343 .408 .518
2000 453 395 153 28 1 6 54 0 0 4 .387 .466 .509
2001 738 692 242 34 8 8 30 4 4 8 .350 .381 .457
2002 728 647 208 27 8 8 68 3 5 5 .321 .388 .425
2003 725 679 212 29 8 13 36 3 1 6 .312 .352 .436
2004 762 704 262 24 5 8 49 2 3 4 .372 .414 .455
2005 739 679 206 21 12 15 48 2 6 4 .303 .350 .436
2006 752 695 224 20 9 9 49 1 2 5 .322 .370 .416
2007 736 678 238 22 7 6 49 4 2 3 .351 .396 .431
2008 749 686 213 20 7 6 51 3 4 5 .310 .361 .386
2009 393 369 134 19 3 6 19 2 1 2 .363 .396 .480
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tot. 10329 9448 3217 488 90 136 783 24 28 46 .340 .393 .454
Wait, I should be using 2B/AB, or 2B/XBH, or...ah screw this.
Ichiro has rate stats like marginal Hall of Famers and playing time issues if you only include his time in MLB. However he's also got terrific defense and durability in his favor. Ichiro has had an uncanny ability to make adjustments. I'm of the opinion that when he can no longer get infield hits he'll no longer try to get them and play at a slightly lesser but still valuable level with a line drive swing. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended his career as a take and rake slugger as good as Matt Stairs.
There's another hitter with a 118 OPS+ who played forever that seems really similar. Ichiro has been a much better baserunner than that guy known for his hustle. Hopefully Ichiro can avoid the bookies.
Speaking as a HoM voter, we've pretty much given everyone credit for any time they showed they were playing at a major league level. Ichiro is certain to get the same treatment and is already a lock. Based on the early discussion Larry Walker has a chance in the HoM voting.
Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SH SF HBP AVG OBP SLG----------------------------------------------------------------
1992 98 95 24 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 .253 .276 .305
1993 66 64 12 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 .188 .212 .266
1994 597 546 203 41 5 6 51 0 0 0 .372 .425 .498
1995 592 524 166 23 4 12 68 0 0 0 .317 .395 .445
1996 598 542 185 24 4 8 56 0 0 0 .341 .403 .445
1997 598 536 176 31 4 8 62 0 0 0 .328 .398 .446
1998 549 506 174 36 3 6 43 0 0 0 .344 .395 .462
1999 456 411 130 27 2 10 45 0 0 0 .316 .384 .465
2000 453 395 147 22 1 6 54 0 0 4 .372 .453 .478
2001 738 692 242 34 8 8 30 4 4 8 .350 .381 .457
2002 728 647 208 27 8 8 68 3 5 5 .321 .388 .425
2003 725 679 212 29 8 13 36 3 1 6 .312 .352 .436
2004 762 704 262 24 5 8 49 2 3 4 .372 .414 .455
2005 739 679 206 21 12 15 48 2 6 4 .303 .350 .436
2006 752 695 224 20 9 9 49 1 2 5 .322 .370 .416
2007 736 678 238 22 7 6 49 4 2 3 .351 .396 .431
2008 749 686 213 20 7 6 51 3 4 5 .310 .361 .386
2009 393 369 134 19 3 6 19 2 1 2 .363 .396 .480
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tot. 10329 9448 3156 427 90 136 783 24 28 46 .334 .387 .441
Yeah, I figured on that, but I'm really only interested in the rates here personally. Also, lazy.
Does it remind you of this thread?
By the way, whether one thinks Ichiro deserves credit for his Japan time or not, even setting that issue aside there are people arguing that Ichiro is at least close to deserving *now*, on merit/value, based solely on his US performance.
That's what I'm objecting to, and is why I keep pointing to the 1364 (now 1365) games, which is a ridiculously low total for a serious candidate who is a corner OF with a .298 EqA. Under normal circumstances people would have no trouble recognizing that, but the pro-Ichiro crowd has basically become a cult.
Got it. If people disagree with you, it's because they're either deluded or haven't really thought about the issue. Any other psychological insights about people you've never met that you'd like to share?
In order to help in the discussion, could you provide a brief description of the sort of Hall voter you would be? Are you a small hall, big hall, current hall size guy? Are you more interested in peak, prime, or career? Are you interested in adjusting hall voting to try and even out inductions by position, or do you just want the best, no matter what that does to the weighting between positions? And do you have preferred metrics for evaluating these things?
It seems to me that the ones currently pushing for Ichiro are doing so based on two things - either they're big peak voters, in which case Ichiro could already have a case, depending on the preferred metric, or they're doing an internal best-guess extrapolation over the rest of his career, and judging his total value and worth based on that.
Who? I guess none of us arguing with you are "pro-Ichiro" then, cause I don't think this fits anyone.
Why not talk to your conversation partners instead of your imaginary friends?
You mean, kind of like Gaelan's rant about me in #110? :-)
I'm small hall, and I think that players at like positions should be compared to players at like positions. I think that peak, career, and hybrid peak/career arguments are valid. (E.g., Mussina, for hybrid peak/career.)
But just because a peak argument is valid doesn't mean that a player doesn't need bulk outside of his peak. He still needs some length to his career, unless his peak is insanely high, like Albert Pujols (and even with Pujols, I'm uncomfortable about his 1350 games). I don't think going first to third quite gets Ichiro there.
Now that we agree on that, we can move to the next step, which is to characterize others' arguments accurately and to make the scope of one's own arguments clear.
I'm very excited that we'll be moving forward together in this process; I'm sure it'll be great.
How small? 2/3 of the current Hall, half of the current Hall, or smaller? If it's much smaller than the current one, then that's almost certainly the source of the disagreement - I don't think anyone is touting Ichiro as some inner-circle candidate based on his likely body of work in MLB, but that he's likely to be (extrapolating from his current performance) a very credible bottom third candidate.
Which is a bid source of the problem too, since Ichiro has a very unconventional case for a RF. Outside of Ichiro, I can't think of too many RF who carried such a high percentage of their value in non-offensive stats - speed and defense types tend to end up in CF or LF.
You've obviously missed some of the extreme peak cases elected by the Hall of Merit (which I also tend to disagree with, since I generally like some bulk to the candidates as well). Greatness can take multiple forms, whether through the ability to sustain a slightly above average performance over an incredibly long time, or through a massive peak, or through a well above average (but not monstrous) performance over a middle range of time - Ichiro is looking like someone who is going to achieve the latter, and put up (if he hasn't already) a prime which compares well to that of a lot of Hall of Famers (but not necessarily to the Hall of Famers who would be in a small hall).
Of course, that prime also heavily depends on the accuracy of the evaluations of Ichiro's defense and baserunning. If the true value provided by these are close to AROM's numbers, then he's almost certainly qualified. If the true value is closer to Chris' numbers, then he almost certainly isn't.
But then there are people who don't see Don Sutton as a HOFer.
But then there are people who don't see Don Sutton as a HOFer.
If Don Sutton had won 20 games for 8 or 9 years in a row, I doubt if it would've taken him so long to reach the Hall. But then I guess I should realize that some people see the HoF as nothing more than the Hall of Sabermetric Statistics, and there's not much hope of convincing them that any OFer without gaudy power stats could ever be Hallworthy, no matter what else he might have done. But I think I knew that already.
When he gets to ~2,000 career games, I'm willing to listen. Again, I think quantity is important.
I was probably the last guy who agreed that Mariano Rivera was Hall worthy. A few years ago I was horrified that people were putting him in based on 700 (!) innings. Now he's got 1050, which still is not a whole lot, but as I said above you can't ignore insanely great performances like that, and he's clearly qualified based on the standards for relievers that have been set.
I'm not engaged in a vendetta against Ichiro. I've been consistent in applying my standards to all players. With Ichiro for me it's mainly a quantity thing and a lack of insanely great performances to make up for that. Arm and non-SB baserunning don't come close to making up for the scores of home runs and walks that are missing from his game which would make him an insanely great player.
Nor do his shiny hits totals move me in the slightest. Those are style, not substance. Is that something special I'm doing to Ichiro? No. A couple months ago I questioned whether Sosa's shiny home runs didn't have people overrating his Hall case. (See the thread here, my comment #29 specifically.) I try to apply consistent standards to all players across the board. It's Ichiro's supporters who have created about a half a dozen new criteria that apply just to him (short career excused; treat him as a CF; focus on his non-SB baserunning; count his time from Japan; etc.).
Tim Raines!
Guys, I think we need to accept that there is no such thing as a sabermetric orthodoxy. There might have been once, but those days are dust in the win. Look at the Dunn v. Nyger Morgan thread as an example. It's getting as stale as the white people are like this and black people are like that kind of observation. My thinking about the value of players in the last few years has been that I value defense a lot more than I used to. It's a process. Anyone who thinks they have any of this nailed down is full of ####.
I'm generally fine with the size of the Hall, but I'd get rid of the mistakes like Catfish Hunter if I could. I'm ok with having a bottom tier -- but I don't support candidates who are bottom tier.
Once again completely false.
I'd bet that if he was on the ballot right now he'd get 98% of the vote, minimum. But what are you citing irrelevancies for? I never disagreed that he's going to sail in, waving at more deserving RF candidates like Dwight Evans as he sails on through.
You're right; it's probably more like a dozen.
Andy, I don't think that there's anyone here arguing that Ichiro won't get in with some massive percentage of the vote - even those here who don't support his candidacy are willing to acknowledge that the writers will quite happily stuff him in at the first chance they get. Rather, the argument is whether he should get in. If you put him before the writers today (and waived the 10 year minimum) he'd get in easily.
Does R. Kelly post here?
And Alex, can you give us a translation table of Ichiro's stats if he wanted to hit homers? :-)
Is other guy Walsh, MGL, or somebody else? I don't know who else does arm ratings. I doubt there are huge differences. Outfielder throwing ratings seem to be as straight-forward as baseball analysis gets. You field a ball. A runner can either advance, stay put, or be thrown out. Compare the totals to your league average, figure the run value of each event, and you get a rating. I don't think a reasonably intelligent analyst with sufficient technical skill can screw up arm ratings that bad. It's a lot easier than range, which I think can be screwed up by smart people with sound methods, and they don't even know they've screwed it up. For all I know I may have completely screwed up range statistics.
Walsh uses retrosheet like myself. MGL uses detailed, non-public, play by play so he can add more into it than we can.
For Ichiro since 2002, I get:
1,8,11,-2,4,6,4 for a total of +32
MGL gets (on Fangraphs)
-2,9,5,1,6,8,6 for a total of +33
The season numbers don't match but they move in the same direction, with both of us identifying the same years as Ichiro's good and bad seasons. And in the end, the 7 year total is the same either way, which reinforces something I've said earlier on: I don't trust single year fielding stats, but I stand by the career totals. Large sample size is my friend.
Walsh (from THT since 2004):
8,-3,2,5,5 (+17) Mine since 2004 only: +23, MGL +26
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330
OTOH, "that bad" is also not right. Some of the arm ratings at the time seemed very,very high (25 runs?), which I strongly disbelieve.
ok. well at least explain why it's not. i love how you and walt say it's not but don't explain why.
He's Gaelan. He would find a way.
I just hope he busts out the "Kansas City in August" line.
I hope he tops it.
Well sure. It's just a manager's decision after all.
Bill James once did a squib on this.
If you are fast, and you have an arm, you end up in CF.
If you have no arm, you normally end up in left, whether fast or slow, unless there is nobody else on the team with speed and an arm, in which case if you are fast but with a lousy arm, you are the default center fielder.
If you have an arm, but are not fast, you end up in right.
Ichiro has the general tools for a center fielder. Give him less ground to cover, in right, and he should come off well above average.
I should realize that some people see the HoF as nothing more than the Hall of Sabermetric Statistics
Hey, that's my shtick. Get your own, or take it to a steroids thread.
I'm fine with Sutton. Not much of a peak, but there's tons of career value there.
And there's nothing wrong with a .298 EqA for a HOF corner OF -- if the quantity is there.
I do give ichiro a shred of credit from the NPB.
The only good thing that came out of the last Ichiro HOF thread is that I added Ray to my ignore list.
There is a Japan MLE. That means it is a lesser league.
Has there been any era in which the Japanese leagues have been equal in quality to the contemporary major leagues?
People are allowed to have differing opinions and to value things differently but come independently to the same conclusion with varying degrees of intensity. The pro-Ichiro for the HOF camp doesn't get together weekly and keep minutes and vote on binding resolutions.
I would too if I saw a rating that high. I don't think Walsh or MGL ever published something like that but I don't know. The best I ever got for Clemente is a +8. Barfield had a +11. The worst for Bernie was -6, and -8 for Pierre. I think it's possible to be +25 in outfield throwing, but to do it you'd have to have about 40 assists, and nobody these days gets more than 15-20.
As far as you know.
Our first binding resolution was over "No Shootys."
But one Shooty is ok, right?
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