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Congrats to Rickey and the other guy.
Bert is eligible thru the January 2013 election, right? He'll get in during one of the upcoming down years.
I am pleased that Smitty leapfrogged a dropping Morris.
Tommy John's fate now lies with the VC, 5 long years from now...
Raines' 22.6% is pretty shameful. Hopefully clearing two other LFers off the ballot will help him get in before the 2013 crunch hits...
Trammell's odds look bleak, considering he has less time and a better SS coming on next year.
Big Mac doesn't seem to have any momentum at all. He may have a long wait too.
Coney dropping off was depressingly predictable.
Congrats Jimbo!
Tim McCarver: "You know, 'Gant', in French means 'Glove...'"
You can bet none of these guys worked for a New York paper...
http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/columnists/jimbaumbach/blog/2008/05/the_rookies_on_the_2010_baseba.html
Make room for Robbie! If he gets in, will he be a Jay? I sure hope so.
Henderson was a no-brainer, though the fact that 5% of the voters didn't vote for him suggests that there are several voters lacking brains.
Rice they got wrong. Blyleven they got wrong. Raines they got wrong. Trammell they got wrong. And McGwire they got wrong.
Oh well.
There was barely any movement for Smith, Morris, Raines, and Trammell.
What on earth was the rationale for the Orosco vote? Did anyone own up to that?
I have a hard time getting worked up about this. The Hall of Fame doesn't admit to gradation - either a player is in or he's not.
That said, I am a little happy that Baines managed to hang in there for one more year.
Yes, those are two contradictory statements.
Page 1 of 1 pages
Hearing Yanks offering $40mm/2 years
'Tis to weep.
The only comfort I draw from this ballot is the fact that Mark McGwire still has no momentum. I'll be very depressed if he ever makes it in.
Also, I guess I'm pleased that Rice was only 7 votes away from being consigned to Veteran's Committee limbo.
Rice gets in with 7 votes to spare. Maybe CHB's lobbying effort was enough.
EDIT: D'oh, Esoteric got me with the other half of the glass.
The Alan Trammell vote is a complete travesty.
It's really perplexing to me trying to understand the difference in the votes for Rice, Dawson, and Murphy.
Probably largely due to the fact that Jim Rice was beloved by sportswriters while Dale Murphy was by all accounts, a total douchenozzle.
Errr, wait.
Probably, probably, definitly, unclear, unclear.
How can you be so definite?
I have to say, there are a lot of things worse with those results than Bert getting 60%+.
Most likely a pro-Mets vote. I've noticed in the past that every Met gets that token one or two votes.
Mr. 300!
An apt misspelling.
Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Dave Burba, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Robin Ventura, Fernando Vina, and Todd Zeile
this is exactly why it bothers me (although not as much as many). i can't think of any possible reason not to vote for someone you think should be in. don't refuse to vote for a guy on the first ballot because you don't think he's "inner circle" seeing how there is no inner circle. i also don't like voting for guys you don't think should be in just as a "shout out" or to keep them on the ballot. either he's in or not. so i can think of no justifiable reason to vote no unless you really don't think he belongs - and who doesn't think rickey belongs?
again, it's fun to get worked up about, and i wouldn't really care if these people, whose methods i completely disagree with, weren't the gatekeepers for something i actually consider important.
edit - as to the misspelling referenced in 28: although i'm in general a complete moron, in this case, believe it or not, it was intentional.
Rice +4.2%
Dawson +1.1%
Blyleven +0.8%
Lee Smith +1.2%
Morris +1.1%
John +2.6%
Raines -1.7%
McGwire -1.7%
Trammell -0.8%
Parker -0.1%
Mattingly -3.9%
Dale Murphy - 2.3%
Baines +0.7%
Not much movement at all. Heck, Rice moved the most and I thought he'd move even more. I bet there were a lot of ballots where the writer removed someone who got little support last year and replaced him with Rickey.
As I said in another thread, no one has ever received 100% of the vote and as long as old curmudgeons are still given ballots no one ever will.
Dude, it's a Hall of Fame vote. Either you vote "yes" or you vote "no." There isn't a "maybe" category.
By the established standards of most players in and out of the HOF, Rice doesn't deserve to be in, and Blyleven, Raines, Trammell, and McGwire do.
so, which of those is everyone going to get worked up about this time next year? Edgar, I guess.
Henderson: _________
The complete list of LF and RF in baseball history who were better than
Rickey Henderson:
Ted Williams
Barry Bonds
Stan Musial
Babe Ruth
Hank Aaron
Frank Robinson
Mel Ott
(and there are those who will argue that Robinson and Ott weren't more
valuable than Rickey)
An incomplete list of LF and RF since 1960 who were better than Jim Rice
and aren't in the Hall of Fame:
Tim Raines
(large gap)
Dwight Evans
Jack Clark
Frank Howard
Rusty Staub
Reggie Smith
Bobby Bonds
Rocky Colavito
Dave Parker
And I can make cases for:
Ken Singleton
Jose Cruz, Sr.
Jose Canseco
Albert Belle
Daryl Strawberry
Hm. No slam-dunks. Alomar and Larkin have good chances. Martinez is about 50-50, and McGriff has a very slight chance. I'd be surprised if more than a couple of the others survived the first ballot.
2008 vote:
Lee Smith, 235 votes, 43.3%
Jack Morris, 233 votes, 42.9%
no leap-frogging, and only one vote change this year (Smith beat Morris by 3 instead of 2)
Jack Morris
2008 vote, 233 votes, 42.9%
2009 vote, 237 votes, 44.0%
no dropping, though certainly also a lack of upward momentum
ten fewer votes
(sorry, pet peeve)
Isn't this McGwire's third year on the ballot, or am I confused?
They compared him to Rickey and found him wanting (too bad they didn't compare him to Rice).
For thousands of years, the "hall of fame" meant "greatness," not "celebrity." Of course, that has changed in less than a hundred years.
Personally, I'll always think of him as a Diamondback.
My prediction - Dawson gets in. Blyleven barely misses out, and nobody from the new group gets in.
Blyleven's gonna have to come out of retirement and get those last 13 wins at age 58, isn't he?
He would be a solid #2 on the Orioles or Nats.
Don't be sorry. It irritates the hell out of me when people get that one wrong.
I'd love to hear the two who voted for Jay Bell explain their behavior. I mean, what in the world is his HoF case? "Solid glove at two key defensive positions, pretty good pop and plate discipline. Spectacular bunter. Two All-Star games. Cool wire-rimmed glasses."
Larkin
Alomar
Edgar
McGriff
doesn't seem like it clears an easy path for Dawson and Bert.
2011:
Bagwell
Palmeiro
Juan Gone
L Walker
Olerud
Kevin Brown
John Franco
Isn't this McGwire's third year on the ballot, or am I confused?
2007, 2008, 2009. Three years and counting. I was referring to the numerous wishful thoughts that were expressed here in 2007, which apparently thought that the writers didn't really mean it the first time.
Alomar: won't get 75%, but possibly >50%
Appier: won't get 5%
Ashby: won't get 5%
Burks: won't get 5%
Burba: won't get 5%
Galarraga: might get >5%, will never be elected
Hentgen: won't get 5%
Jackson: won't get 5%
Karros: won't get 5%
Lankford: won't get 5%
Larkin: won't get 75%, but possibly >50%
Martinez: will get somewhere between 20-50%
McGriff: will get somewhere between 10-30%
McLemore: won't get 5%
Reynolds: won't get 5%
Segui: won't get 5%
Ventura: might get >5%, will never be elected
Vina: won't get 5%
Zeile: won't get 5%
FWIW, my preliminary ballot for next year:
-Blyleven
-Raines
-Trammell
-Alomar
-Larkin
-Martinez
-McGriff
I'm most on the fence about Alomar and Martinez, leaning toward their inclusion, partly because I don't believe that I've ever supported as many as 7 players in any one year before and I have the most questions about those two.
And Lee Smith.
I was expecting just about all of the "Repoz-calculated" percentages, from voters who made their ballot public, to be higher than the actual percentages. But this wasn't quite true.
So, to see how the actual numbers compare with the numbers among those who made their ballots public, among those with >10% of the vote:
(Actual percentage)/(Repoz percentage)
2.443 Dave Parker (15.0%/6.1%)
2.262 Don Mattingly (11.9%/5.3%)
1.723 Tommy John (31.7%/18.4%)
1.209 Lee Smith (44.5%/36.8%)
1.192 Dale Murphy (11.5%/9.6%)
.961 Mark McGwire (21.9%/22.8%)
.956 Rickey Henderson (94.8%/99.1%)
.954 Andre Dawson (67.0%/70.2%)
.946 Jack Morris (44.0%/46.5%)
.926 Jim Rice (76.4%/82.5%)
.871 Bert Blyleven (62.7%/70.2%)
.834 Tim Raines (22.6%/27.1%)
.795 Alan Trammell (17.4%/21.9%)
What do we learn?
- Writers with minority tastes (Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, also David Cone, Mark Grace) tend to not make their votes public. Why not? Unless these are token votes, they should be trying to make the case for their candidates.
- Lee Smith and Tommy John supporters are also severely underrepresented among writers who explain their votes. Why? Clearly their voters are jaded old guys who hate life.
- Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines and Alan Trammell are severely overrepresented among writers who explain their votes. Which we should expect, as their voters are vigorous young go-getters who are internet-savvy.
- For the other serious contenders, the percentage calculated by Repoz was an overestimate by a few percent.
- Harold Baines was the only candidate in the 5-10% range for whom the Repoz percentage was not an extreme underestimate. I guess this was because lots of Chicago writers made their votes public.
With a prominent newcomer on the ballot, everybody else held roughly steady (Dawson, Blyleven, Smith and Morris).
Raines took a small step back in his second year but that's not unusual, he still has plenty of time to work his way up.
Dawson will get in next year.
The 12.3% jump might be a little too much to expect for Blyleven. But a jump into the 70's would give him enough momentum that he'd get in in '10 or '11 (as we just saw with Rice).
There was barely any movemeent PERIOD.
Biggest gains:
Rice 4.2%
John 2.6%
Smith 1.2%
Biggest drops:
Mattingley -3.9%
Murphy 2.3%
Raines & McGwire 1.7% each
The entire vote total went from 5.35 last year (the lowest vote total in history) to 5.38 this year.
I'm not really going to argue but McGwire almost certainly is a case unto himself right now, as we have no idea what the established standards are for him.
I would probably vote for all 3 of the others and wouldn't have voted for Rice. Yet, there are reasonable cases against all of them.
You're not that much smarter than the rest of the population that you can judge from on high, who is right and who is wrong. So while I agree with who you would have voted for, I'm not going to say anyone who doesn't is wrong. For exmaple, the poster whose opinion I respect the most on this site's (I respect yours quite a bit as well) ballot would look a lot different than yours.
Ventura deserves support.
yeah, but I've learned that people can get pretty miffed when you correct someone's grammer on teh internets. Actually, people get angry when you correct their grammer in real life, too.
I see he's been applying the clear and the cream to his brain.
I couldn't care fewer
We'll elect three. My guess is that we'll take both Alomar and Larkin very easily, with Larkin topping the ballot. Our yet to be debated unresolved issues: Martinez versus McGriff; Martinez and McGriff versus the backlog; and whether Ventura gets a place in the backlog somewhere.
What about spelling?
Yeah, anyone could have put up those numbers with the juice. Fortunately for us only three or four people ever used the stuff.
Oh, geez, Matt, lighten up. It's a Hall of Fame vote; we aren't discussing world hunger. Votes in agreement with one's own can fairly be described as "right," and those in disagreement can fairly be described as "wrong."
He won't get elected (and probably shouldn't) but he is a lot higher up on the list of all-time third basemen than most people realise. He was pretty terrific defensively, too.
I would vote Edgar Martinez for anything, including President of the United States and surrogate father, so I'm probably not the most reliable indicator as far as he goes.
Dollars to donuts these are two guys Bell would have a beer with on the road or maybe Bell went and spoke to their kid's little league team or something. They threw him a bone so he could tell his grandkids that he got some HOF votes. At least I hope that's what happened.
(To be clear, I'm trying to make the HOF case for David Justice here.)
No induction speech at all next year would be ridiculous. There will be more than 10 players worth considering and 6 with a BBTF consensus of electing immediately:
Blyleven, Larkin, Raines, Trammell, Alomar, McGwire
Lee Smith, Edgar Martinez, Ventura, Appier, Dawson, McGriff
All these guys are better than Jack Morris.
Tommy John never should have operated on himself!"
People are wondering why I am laughing at work. Thank you.
G-d, I miss "Fire Joe Morgan".
I feel sort of bad for Ron Gant that he got no votes at all. Ah well, it's an honor just to <strike>be nominated</strike> play full-time for ten years.
This guy Heyman gets so much airtime on various baseball shows, but he seems to be less than sharp. That's pretty polite I must say.
The inactive BBWAA members who still vote, almost by definition, wouldn't explain their vote. Perhaps they are far removed from the more recent guys on the list (and/or more recent ways of evaluating players) and are clinging to the guys they covered or admired? Granted, that wouldn't explain Cone or Grace necessarily, but it could explain Mattingly, Murphy, or Parker.
Which is exactly what concerns me about this ballot.
There are people on the edge of the ballot - but they have ZERO forward momentum, and with what looks to be a stronger newbie crop on the horizon next year.
I agree he won't get elected. I have him as borderline (possibly over the line, I haven't looked too hard at him yet), around Bell, Nettles, and Collins.
January 2012. This was his 12th ballot.
Actually 2 short years from now. The VC considers you after you've been retired for 21 years. In their recently held election, players retired in 1987 were eligible.
I guess today the 10-year-old kid inside me is smiling while the 40-year-old SDCN says "meh."
You're right there weren't exactly 10. There were 11.
people get angry when you correct their grammer in real life, too.
What about spelling?
Brilliantly played!
1995 - (Schmidt, 96.5) Niekro 62.2%, Sutton 57.4%, Perez 56.3%
1996 - Niekro 68.3%, Perez 65.7%, Sutton 63.8%
1997 - Niekro 80.3%, Sutton 73.2%, Perez 66.0%
1998 - Sutton 81.6%, Perez 67.9%
Perez was elected in 2000 after the 1999 rush (Ryan, Brett, Yount) got out of the way.
He actually went down this year. He's never getting in.
Rickey Henderson: Should get 90% plus of the vote. CHECK - 94.8%
Tim Raines Will be lucky to get 25% of the vote. CHECK - 22.6%
Bert Blyleven will near 70% of the vote. WRONGO - 62.7%
Allan Trammel Will be lucky to get 20% of the vote. CHECKO - 17.4%
Tommy John Will be lucky to get 30% of the vote. WRONGO - 31.7%
Dale Murphy: Probably won’t get 15% of the vote. CHECKO - 11.5%
Lee Smith: Should get about 45% of the vote.CHECKO - 44.5%
What is most disturbing though is the lack of forward progress by most of the electorate, that indicates to me that voters are digging in their heels.
He's not an idiot, he just doesn't know a damn thing about baseball.
Oh, he's definitely going to get in eventually. He may be dead by then, but he'll get in.
actually, I think the anti-Rice voices will go the way to pimping for actual deserving candidates now that the standard has been dramatically lowered. Andre Dawson probably gets in easily next year, when the most recent standard for outfield is a clearly lesser player like Rice. Murphys vote total goes up, heck Parkers vote goes up. McGriff relative to Rice is a slam dunk, Edgar Martinez is another slam dunk, it's a domino effect. meanwhile Raines still doesn't garner support.
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