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Friday, September 08, 2017

MLB MVPs: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and ... Tommy Pham? Smart money says these are the candidates | SI.com

Jay Jaffe embraces the best way to pay for WAR.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 08, 2017 at 02:06 PM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mvp

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: September 08, 2017 at 09:17 PM (#5528940)
I always enjoy MVP debates, I know some on here don't like them or all star debates or hof debates, but generally I find them fun.

I also like some people making arguments of the mvp with focus on "value"(pay) argument, again it's a fun exercise...

(channelling plaschke)

I've made jokes about Pham for MVP, obviously he's not really a true mvp candidate, but a potential down ballot vote, a guy with 5 war(which is where he'll probably finish the season at) on a contending team might get him some 8th place votes here or there... Not bad for a guy who I last year basically said "he's not a legitimate prospect."

   2. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 08, 2017 at 09:54 PM (#5528952)
Is Judge even the favorite to win RoY at this point? Even if he deserves it, narrative is going to really hurt him.

AL MVP right now is very clearly Altuve. I don't see how it's close. Sale was probably the only one who could have challenged him, but he took himself out of it with a couple of bad starts.
   3. bfan Posted: September 09, 2017 at 07:21 AM (#5528990)
AL MVP right now is very clearly Altuve.


agreed; so the smart money must be pretty dumb. I am sure either Mookie Betts or Devers or Sale will get some consideration because, you know, Boston and all.
   4. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 09, 2017 at 07:41 AM (#5528992)
I am sure either Mookie Betts or Devers or Sale will get some consideration because, you know, Boston and all.

Devers? I love it.

Well, maybe if Joe Kennedy's slush fund still has a few million bucks left over from 1960 to distribute among the writers, a rookie with fewer than 60 games and about 1.2 WAR might sneak past Altuve....
   5. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 09, 2017 at 08:13 AM (#5528995)
I am sure either Mookie Betts or Devers or Sale will get some consideration because, you know, Boston and all.

There is no chance the Betts gets any serious consideration. While still having a good year, too much of his value is in his defence. And this is not from a premium defensive spot like shortstop, center, or catcher. He also is having a down year at the bat, sharply down from last year (133 OPS+ to 102).
   6. Bote Man Posted: September 09, 2017 at 09:30 AM (#5528998)
It seems to me that a player can have an MVP season even with a slump stuck is there somewhere. Voters should look at the preponderance of evidence to decide.

But I generally don't like these discussions so have at it ;-)
   7. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: September 09, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5529002)
No love for Simmons or Trout? I don't think anyone figured the Angels would be in the thick of the WC race, and both have had great seasons.
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: September 09, 2017 at 11:05 AM (#5529005)
It seems to me that a player can have an MVP season even with a slump stuck is there somewhere. Voters should look at the preponderance of evidence to decide.


I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that, it's just that slump has turned him from being the runaway favorite to win MVP, to no longer the favorite. Right now if the vote happened and Altuve didn't win it unanimously, there is something wrong. Judge, Trout, Simmons, Kluber, Sale, Jose Ramirez, Betts, Upton all make up the second tier of candidates.

Is Judge even the favorite to win RoY at this point? Even if he deserves it, narrative is going to really hurt him.


Who else is even in consideration? As a quick and dirty way of looking at it, Judge has 6.0 war, 4.0 waa(.276/.412/.574/.986--and by rField, he's a +10 defender), there isn't another AL rookie with over 2.8(that would be Matt Chapman and his .232/.305/.464/.770 line.... Trey Mancini has 23 hr and a .839 line(2.1 war) and there isn't a rookie pitcher worth a crap in the AL this year. Jordan Montgomery is probably the best of a mediocre batch.
   9. TomH Posted: September 09, 2017 at 11:13 AM (#5529009)
Trout could do Trout things over 3 weeks, leading Trout's team to an unlikely playoff berth, giving Trout the MVP. Trout is already even with Altuve in batting runs above avg, despite 163 fewer PA.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: September 09, 2017 at 11:35 AM (#5529011)
Trout could do Trout things over 3 weeks, leading Trout's team to an unlikely playoff berth, giving Trout the MVP. Trout is already even with Altuve in batting runs above avg, despite 163 fewer PA


I don't see a guy with about 120 games played winning the MVP, no matter how good he was. Bonds won with 130 games (Pujols had 3 first place votes that year) with a line of .341/.529/.749/1.278 45 hr, 111 runs and 90 rbi... He beat out Pujols in War with a 9.2 to 8.6.. He managed to get the counting numbers, combined with making the post season, while his biggest rival was playing for a team that didn't make the post season(even though they had FIVE players with 4 or more war)

I just do not see anyway that Trout is going to better Altuve over the next 25 or so games, to the point that he is going to be able to knock off a guy with(currently) a line of .352/.412/.563/.975 with a league leading 31 stolen bases and 185 hits and 97 runs scored and 5.5/7.4 waa/war. Trout has a nice line of .323/.461/.650/1.111 80 runs, 64 rbi and currently 4.7/6.0 waa/war, but even assuming a Bondsian type of month and just a normal Altuve month, there is no way he can make up the ground that he is behind, barring something truly weird like 4 walk off hits during prime time combined with a Judge level collapse by Altuve.
   11. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 09, 2017 at 01:07 PM (#5529017)
George Brett won it in 117 games, and deserved to.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: September 09, 2017 at 08:01 PM (#5529111)
George Brett won it in 117 games, and deserved to.


I could see a reason to give it to Rickey Henderson that year, but good enough example, the thing is that Brett had 117 rbi, .390 average for a first place team. Trout will be lucky to have 90 rbi, and probably closer to 80, and will be below a .330 average, and those things matter in these votes. As it stands right now Altuve is clearly ahead of him, and even with a push to close the gap, it still looks like Altuve is going to be more deserving.
   13. TomH Posted: September 09, 2017 at 08:25 PM (#5529113)
Fangraphs WAR has Trout only 0.3 behind Altuve, not 1.4. Bbref seems to like Altuve's baserunning and defense more than fangraphs.

I agree that ALtuve's counting ##s would be hard to beat, but a September story could sway voters (see Stargell, 79, for story over counting stats)
   14. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: September 09, 2017 at 08:28 PM (#5529116)
but a September story could sway voters (see Stargell, 79, for story over counting stats)


Those days may be gone. There's a huge difference between a late season surge to propel your team to the LCS vs a late season surge to propel your team to a play in game to get to the round of 8.
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: September 09, 2017 at 08:42 PM (#5529119)
And of course, voters look for reasons to not vote for a repeat winner, which I think could ultimately be a big factor between Trout winning and not winning.
   16. Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™ Posted: September 10, 2017 at 10:46 AM (#5529254)
Counterpoint: Trout himself was jobbed out of what should've been his first MVP by Cabrera's winning it for a second straight year.
   17. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2017 at 11:14 AM (#5529258)
I don't see a guy with about 120 games played winning the MVP, no matter how good he was

Aside from Brett, Mickey Mantle won in 1962 with 123 games played (also out of 162).

he had a 195 OPS+. Norm Siebern was second at 140.

WAR was
SP Camilo Pascual 6.2
SP-RP Hank Aguirre 6.1
OF Frank Robinson 6.1
OF Mickey Mantle 5.9
SP Jim Kaat 5.8
   18. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 10, 2017 at 11:18 AM (#5529260)
He's not likely to catch Stanton, but Charlie Blackmon's year keeps getting better and better: He's up to .340/.405/.621, leading the league in BA, runs, hits, total bases and triples.
   19. Sweatpants Posted: September 10, 2017 at 11:37 AM (#5529264)
WAR was
SP Camilo Pascual 6.2
SP-RP Hank Aguirre 6.1
OF Frank Robinson 6.1
OF Mickey Mantle 5.9
SP Jim Kaat 5.8
That was Brooks and not Frank. In 1962 Frank was the defending NL MVP and having an even better season than the year before. If he'd had his 1962 in the AL he'd have won the MVP award running away.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2017 at 11:45 AM (#5529269)
Counterpoint: Trout himself was jobbed out of what should've been his first MVP by Cabrera's winning it for a second straight year.


There were a lot of factors in that vote though, if you reverse the teams record, then Cabrera's triple crown becomes Ted Williams ('41/'47) to Mike Trout as Joe(Gordon/Dimaggio), add in that on a raw offensive level Cabrera beat Trout in counting stats(more hr, rbi, total bases) along with rate(avg, obp, slg and of course ops)... that Trout had a noticeably poorer year defensively than the year before and it's not that big of a stretch to see the reason why Cabrera won the vote. Add in that Detroit stadium, a traditionally neutral ballpark had it's largest offensive park factor in it's history, and that Angel stadium moved from being traditionally neutral to one of the best pitchers park in the game just a few seasons before, and you have people not intuitively making park adjustments. (another thing that helped Trout in war, was more pa, but when you are looking at only a 9 game difference in games played, people aren't generally going to hold it that much against a player) Voters are only going to base so much of their vote on just the numbers.
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 10, 2017 at 12:36 PM (#5529283)
He's not likely to catch Stanton, but Charlie Blackmon's year keeps getting better and better: He's up to .340/.405/.621, leading the league in BA, runs, hits, total bases and triples.

Remember when there was talk of the Cubs acquiring Blackmon in the offseason? Don't get me wrong, John Jay has had a nice season, but Blackmon would have made a real difference in the lineup.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5529296)

Remember when there was talk of the Cubs acquiring Blackmon in the offseason? Don't get me wrong, John Jay has had a nice season, but Blackmon would have made a real difference in the lineup.


Same thing for the Cardinals this off season and at the trade deadline deal last year, I think the Cardinals balked at making a trade because they didn't want to give up Grichuk.
   23. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 10, 2017 at 01:38 PM (#5529297)
I wouldn't have been opposed to the Rockies trading Blackmon over the winter - he was 30 years old, coming off his best season, looked like his value would never be higher. Instead, he's already set career highs in runs, hits, triples, homers, RBI, walks and total bases, and he has his career highs in all three slash stats.
   24. rconn23 Posted: September 10, 2017 at 06:54 PM (#5529422)
"Is Judge even the favorite to win RoY at this point? Even if he deserves it, narrative is going to really hurt him."

I mean, seriously? There isn't even a close second to Judge. He leads the AL in .OPS, HRs, walks and runs scored even with the second half slump.
   25. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: September 10, 2017 at 08:18 PM (#5529447)
4 HR in the last 7 games. Seems like an opportune time for him to get hot again.
   26. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 11, 2017 at 12:05 AM (#5529486)
Speaking of Miguel Cabrera and "consideration," this will be the first season in his 15-year career where he gets no MVP votes. His previous worst showing was in his 87-game rookie season, where he got 3 points (I believe that came from one 8th-place vote).

He has 7 Top 5 finishes, and 12 Top 15 finishes.
   27. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 11, 2017 at 12:33 AM (#5529488)
Is Judge even the favorite to win RoY at this point?

AL ROY fWAR:

Judge 5.8
Benintendi 2.2
Chapman 2.1
Haniger 1.7
Zimmer 1.5
Olson 1.4
Gamel 1.4
Mancini 1.3

* Generated using the fangraphs "rookies" checkbox, who knows how accurate that is
   28. Walt Davis Posted: September 11, 2017 at 01:03 AM (#5529493)
Trout's 2012 would seem the more relevant example here as he started the year in the minors and got into only 139 games, 559 PA. Trout half-lapped Cabrera on WAR and many voters cited the fact that the Angels missed the playoffs (despite one more win than Detroit) as their reason. One suspects Cabrera's triple crown would have carried the day anyway but it could have been even closer. If the Angels make the playoffs with a big Trout surge, I'd expect a pretty close vote (maybe especially if the Astros fade behind the Inidans); if the Angels don't make the playoffs, it's Altuve's for sure.

By WAR, the NL is a mess. Scherzer and Gio lead followed closely by Stanton ... but Votto, Goldschmidt and Arenado just behind Stanton. Stanton's HRs will win the actual vote fairly easily. CYA is presumably Scherzer's to lose ... which I suppose he could if Gio wins another 3-4 and Scherzer pitches poorly.
   29. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 11, 2017 at 01:42 AM (#5529495)
Judge 5.8
Benintendi 2.2


OK, so who's going to be more valuable over the next 7 years?

   30. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 11, 2017 at 04:19 AM (#5529498)
Speaking of Miguel Cabrera and "consideration," this will be the first season in his 15-year career where he gets no MVP votes.

I just did some research on my own comment to see if this is "unprecedented" or just rare -- receiving MVP votes in each of your first 14 seasons, that is. The MVP voting system has changed a few times, so this can't really be an apples-to-apples comparison, but here's how some perennial MVP types did.

First, some guys who put together streaks, but not from the very beginning of their careers (Note: this is not intended to be a comprehensive list):

Mike Schmidt: 6 in a row was his longest streak, starting in his 7th season.
Jimmie Foxx: 6 in a row was his longest streak, starting in his 5th/7th season (2 brief call-ups).
Frank Thomas: 7 in a row, but not in his rookie season.
George Brett: 8 in a row, but not in his rookie season
Eddie Murray: 8 in a row, but not in his rookie season (even though he was Rookie of the Year).
Lou Gehrig: 8 in a row is his longest streak, starting in his 9th season. I think they didn't allow repeat winners when the MVP award started, so he was ineligible after his first win until they changed the rules. Otherwise he would've certainly had 14 in a row, starting from his rookie (but not debut) season.
Pete Rose: 9 in a row, but none in his first 2 seasons.
Mickey Mantle: 11 in a row, but not in his rookie season.
Alex Rodriguez: 13 in a row is his longest streak, starting in his 4th/5th season (he had one brief call-up; also, his "rookie" year was only 48 games).
Willie Mays: 13 in a row, but none in his first 2 seasons.
Barry Bonds: 15 in a row, but none in his first 4 seasons.
Hank Aaron: 19 in a row, but not in his rookie season.

And then the guys who did it right from the start (again, this list is not comprehensive and there may be some guys missing between Robinson and Pujols, but I think this is probably everyone with 12 seasons or more):

Frank Robinson: First 7 seasons.
Chipper Jones: First 9 seasons, not including 8-game call-up and one season missed due to injury.
Albert Pujols: First 12 seasons.
Joe DiMaggio: First 12 seasons, three missed due to WWII.
Miguel Cabrera: First 14 seasons.
Yogi Berra: First 15 seasons, not counting 7-game call-up in 1946.
Stan Musial: First 16 seasons, one missed due to WWII and also not counting 12-game call-up in 1941.
Ted Williams: First 18 seasons, three missed due to WWII, and not counting 1952 when he only played in 6 games due to further military service. In 1953, he finished 26th in the voting (getting a single vote) despite only playing 37 games!

I guess depending on how strictly you frame the question, Cabrera's achievement could be considered unprecedented: It looks like he is the only player to receive MVP votes in 14 straight calendar years, starting from his debut season.

Mike Trout will run his streak to 6 this year, starting from his rookie year, but his first year was really 2011, when he hit .220 and got no MVP votes. Technically that was a "pre-rookie" season, but only because rookie-dom is defined by AB instead of PA. He played in 40 games and had 135 PA -- more than Williams had in 1953.
   31. TomH Posted: September 11, 2017 at 09:09 AM (#5529520)
as of AM 11Sep
.... (AB-H+CS). (H+W)
player/ outs/ times on base/ total bases/ SB
MTROUT . 234 .... 192 .......... 231 ... 20
ALTUVE .. 355 .... 239 .......... 304 ... 31

diff ........ 121 .... 047 .......... 063 ... 11
mlb avg
for 121 outs ....... 057 .......... 070 ... 3

Who has been a better hitter vs lg avg? Trout. vs replacement player, not sure.
   32. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 11, 2017 at 10:59 AM (#5529573)
In case it wasn't obvious, I was being overly glib about the RoY comment. Mostly to reinforce the point, that MVP talk is nuts.

But if he finishes the second half hitting .200/.300/.400 or whatever he is hitting, then I do think voters would not treat him like a "6 WAR player". I agree there is nobody close enough to challenge him, but if there was somebody sitting at 4-5 WAR right now, I think they would probably be favorites.
   33. BDC Posted: September 11, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5529586)
Fascinating stuff in #30, Cooper. It got me thinking who would be the greatest player (from the era covered) not to make those lists. Probably a catcher – both Roy Campanella and Johnny Bench won MVP awards before and after a year in which they didn't make the ballot.

Carl Yastrzemski got votes in 12 years over a 14-year span but disappeared from consideration in the middle (1971-72. Actually he got votes in 13 of 16 years, counting 1963; he missed in 1964.)
   34. jmurph Posted: September 11, 2017 at 12:26 PM (#5529666)
Speaking of Miguel Cabrera and "consideration," this will be the first season in his 15-year career where he gets no MVP votes.

Holy #### he's owed a lot of money. Huh.
   35. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: September 11, 2017 at 12:39 PM (#5529675)
Really depends on the voters as it's a more diverse bunch than it used to be. I have the NL Cy this year and I guarantee I'm going to consider Kershaw much more seriously, despite his lack of total playing time, than some of the other voters will.

Just from talking with other writers, I think there are enough that Judge will still win the ROY fairly easily. Though I could be wrong.
   36. Cooper Nielson Posted: September 11, 2017 at 01:49 PM (#5529748)
Fascinating stuff in #30, Cooper. It got me thinking who would be the greatest player (from the era covered) not to make those lists. Probably a catcher – both Roy Campanella and Johnny Bench won MVP awards before and after a year in which they didn't make the ballot.

Thanks, BDC. My methodology was a bit "blunt" -- I just checked everyone on BB-Ref's MVP shares leaderboard down to about #30, and spot-checked some others who had consistent careers with good starts. I'm sure I missed a few.

Some others worthy of note:

Tony Oliva: First 8 seasons, not counting two brief call-ups.
Jackie Robinson: First 7 seasons.
Ralph Kiner: First 7 seasons.
Ernie Banks: First 7 seasons, not counting 10-game call-up.

Vladimir Guerrero: 11 in a row, but not in his rookie season (or brief call-up).
Lou Boudreau: 10 in a row, but not in his rookie season (or brief call-up).
Al Kaline: 6 in a row starting in his rookie year, missed one, then 7 more in a row.
Ichiro: 4 seasons to start his career, missed one, then 5 in a row.
   37. PreservedFish Posted: September 11, 2017 at 01:55 PM (#5529754)
I have the NL Cy this year


So cool! Congrats.
   38. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: September 11, 2017 at 02:04 PM (#5529760)
So cool! Congrats.

I'm glad there's at least thinking for first place. I had NL ROY last year and while I agonized over 2/3 until the final day (I went with Trea Turner and Aledmys Diaz), first place was super-easy.
   39. rconn23 Posted: September 11, 2017 at 03:48 PM (#5529841)
"Mostly to reinforce the point, that MVP talk is nuts."

He should finish no worse than third, so saying naming him MVP is nuts is a little strong. Altuve has passed him, though. There is no one close in the ROY race to Judge. Benintendi, I guess, is second, and it's a distant second.
   40. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 11, 2017 at 06:28 PM (#5529894)
In case it wasn't obvious, I was being overly glib about the RoY comment. Mostly to reinforce the point, that MVP talk is nuts. But if he finishes the second half hitting .200/.300/.400 or whatever he is hitting, then I do think voters would not treat him like a "6 WAR player". I agree there is nobody close enough to challenge him, but if there was somebody sitting at 4-5 WAR right now, I think they would probably be favorites.

Judge's post All-Star OPS is is .757, only 9 points lower than the supposedly non-slumping Andrew Benintendi's .766. For the entire year, Judge leads .994 to .788 a gap of 206 points. No matter how one twists oneself into a pretzel, Judge will be the Rookie of the Year, and receive considerable TOP 3 MVP support. Since he's hit 4 HRs in the last 7 games, Judge might even have time to add a bit to his case.
   41. Booey Posted: September 11, 2017 at 07:11 PM (#5529907)
Judge has just the second 40 HR rookie season in history (interestingly, Bellinger might soon provide the 3rd), and could still lead the league in HR, walks, and runs. 2nd half slump or not, it's nuts to think anyone else has a chance at AL ROY.
   42. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 11, 2017 at 07:39 PM (#5529918)
My god. 3 people in a row. Even after I explicitly stated that I was not being serious. It's like people here are completely foreign to the concept of hyperbole. Or don't actually read what people write.

On second thought, I will just go with all Yankees fans are morons.
   43. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 11, 2017 at 09:32 PM (#5529964)
"He should finish no worse than third,"

He'll finish behind Trout and Altuve. Voters might be looking for someone from the Indians, and Kluber has a strong case, not to mention Ramirez. If the Angels make the playoffs Simmons will get some votes. The slump narrative could hurt judge's MVP tally a lot.

If he doesn't win the RoY, though, I'll eat my hat.

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