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Saturday, June 06, 2009

MLB: Nats hope Strasburg isn’t this year’s Bane

This might be worthy of a roundtable discussion.

Introducing Eddie Bane, walking cautionary tale.

“I never thought about it much like that,” said Bane, taking a break from preparing for his sixth Draft as scouting director for the Los Angeles Angels. “I don’t mind at all if that’s what it is.”

Bane was as dominant a college hurler as there was. His name dots the NCAA record books. He had a 0.99 ERA as a sophomore and went 15-1 as a junior. He was 1973’s version of Mark Prior, Jered Weaver or, dare it be said, Stephen Strasburg. He went straight from the College World Series and into the Twins rotation.

“I went from striking out Dave Winfield at Minnesota at a College World Series game—that played pretty well in Minnesota—threw a few bullpens in Minneapolis and they told me I was starting July 4. Quite honestly, if every team made as much money off their first round pick as the Twins did off me, they’d be doing very well. It was the biggest crowd they ever had at [Metropolitan Stadium].”

 

Repoz Posted: June 06, 2009 at 05:54 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, nationals, prospect reports, scouting, twins

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   1. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3208752)
I don't know. How many teams can say they drafted the guy who killed Batman?
   2. Tripon Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:05 PM (#3208756)
Bane didn't kill Batman. He 'Broke the Batman's back."
   3. Blackadder Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:07 PM (#3208758)
Dude, he was just paralyzed.

EDIT: a coke for Tripon.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:08 PM (#3208759)
Nady shouldn't really be on that list. He had one at-bat in the big leagues, then spent the next three years in the minors. Why did the Padres do that? Was it in his contract he had to be in the big leagues?
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:11 PM (#3208761)
I came on here to do a Batman joke and found three others already. (for the record, I don't know which was the least developed villain, Bane or Doomsday---Bane eventually became something on par with late 90's Venom)
   6. Tripon Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3208763)
Yeah, but both Bane and Venom's background today are really developed compared to their introduction in the 90s.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3208766)
Looking back on Jim Abbott's collegiate career, it was far from dominating. Why was he rushed to the big leagues. Its not like the Angels were hurting for pitching in those days. It turned out okay, but it seems curious in retrospect. Was it because he did so well in the Olympics?
   8. baudib Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3208767)
GEEKS
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:22 PM (#3208774)
GEEKS

you say that as if it's a bad thing.

Looking back on Jim Abbott's collegiate career, it was far from dominating. Why was he rushed to the big leagues. Its not like the Angels were hurting for pitching in those days. It turned out okay, but it seems curious in retrospect. Was it because he did so well in the Olympics?

I can't answer definitively, but I do think the Olympics and the marketting had something to do with it. Abbott was a folk hero at the time and everyone wanted to see him succeed.
   10. puck Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:23 PM (#3208775)
Kind of unrelated, but I'm not sure where else to ask: what's a major league contract? What's the benefit for the player (in the context of a recently drafted minor-league player), what are the requirements of the team?
   11. Mike Emeigh Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:29 PM (#3208780)
what's a major league contract? What's the benefit for the player (in the context of a recently drafted minor-league player), what are the requirements of the team?


Ordinarily, teams are not required to place a player on their 40-man roster until either four or five years after he is signed, then they have three more years in which the player can be optioned to the minors. When a team signs a player to a major-league contract, however, he goes on the 40-man roster immediately. The benefit for the player is that he's under team control for a shorter period of time. The team would do it only when they think the player will get through the minors in three or fewer years.

-- MWE
   12. meatwad Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:36 PM (#3208785)
puck im pretty sure it means they are on the 40 man roster right away, and make mlb pay in the minors
   13. puck Posted: June 06, 2009 at 07:00 PM (#3208795)
Thanks, guys. I assume they still need to meet ML service time requirements for arb and "regular" FA eligibility.
   14. The District Attorney Posted: June 06, 2009 at 07:04 PM (#3208797)
Nats hope Strasburg isn’t this year’s Bane
He better not be, since we have testing now...
   15. Gamingboy Posted: June 06, 2009 at 07:21 PM (#3208805)
Bane would get suspended for 'roids, so I think it would be wiser to draft somebody else.

THE DA beat me to it.
   16. baudib Posted: June 06, 2009 at 07:35 PM (#3208810)
GEEKS

you say that as if it's a bad thing.


I would debate you on this, but I have to watch season 2.5 of Battlestar Galactica again.
   17. greenback Posted: June 06, 2009 at 07:40 PM (#3208815)
The team would do it only when they think the player will get through the minors in three or fewer years.

There is a fourth option year for players with five (?) or fewer years of professional experience.
   18. baudib Posted: June 06, 2009 at 07:47 PM (#3208818)
Does anyone believe there should be more college players who go directly to the majors?

In basketball and football, there are always guys who you KNOW will be good players right away, that even if they don't dominate, they obviously can hold their own. I'm thinking of guys like Shaq and Christian Laettner; Shaq was raw but his physical skills were unprecedented and he got by on that while learning the game, whereas Laettner was a polished player who never did reach superstar status, but was capable of contributing right away. In football, quarterbacks take a long time to get ready to play in the NFL, but you have running backs who aren't even that heralded, 3rd/4th-round picks who can come in right away and play; offensive linemen who dominate from the get-go.

It seems to me that the caliber of play in college must be higher than it was 25 years ago, but fewer guys make the jump straight to the majors. You had Winfield, Bob Horner, Pete Incaviglia... John Olerud played right away.

Frank Thomas -- isn't it obvious, in retrospect, that he must have been among the best hitters in the world before he signed a contract?

I know there is an adjustment with the aluminum bats, and I'm sure that the arbitration clock has a lot to do with it.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: June 06, 2009 at 08:18 PM (#3208831)
Does anyone believe there should be more college players who go directly to the majors?

I think that the teams should be willing to take a chance. The Cardinals have Brett Wallace who they drafted last year and it seems as if he probably could have gone straight to the majors(at least offensively) and then to watch him struggle in triple A, which will be used by people as an argument that they just aren't ready even out of college.

It's possible that the competition level of the majors is that big of a gap that college ball just doesn't prepare you for it. I guess I think it would be easier for a pitcher to immediately contribute than a hitter.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: June 06, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3208833)
I would debate you on this, but I have to watch season 2.5 of Battlestar Galactica again.
I'm trying to get my Dr Who fix right now, but I'm still wrestling over the moral/ethical implications of watching shows on todou.com/google video (low quality slow speed and japanese subtitles but I'm getting caught up :) ) for now I guess I'll trade my morals ethics, with the knowledge that I plan on buying every season sometime during the summer.
   21. TerpNats Posted: June 06, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3208836)
Washington fans simply don't want Strasburg to be another Pete Broberg. (Of course, even if Broberg had panned out, his best days would have come in Arlington, Texas. Curse you, Bob Short.)
   22. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: June 06, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3208840)
Just to get it out of the way, Eddie was a pretty nice guy when I met him.
   23. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 06, 2009 at 10:01 PM (#3208867)
Does anyone believe there should be more college players who go directly to the majors?

I think maybe if colleges used wood bats, you might see it more, but it seems the transition from aluminum to wood is one that takes some time for a lot of guys.

I think you will start to see college relievers go straight to the big leagues though.
   24. Bhaakon Posted: June 06, 2009 at 10:12 PM (#3208871)
Does anyone believe there should be more college players who go directly to the majors?

In basketball and football, there are always guys who you KNOW will be good players right away, that even if they don't dominate, they obviously can hold their own. I'm thinking of guys like Shaq and Christian Laettner; Shaq was raw but his physical skills were unprecedented and he got by on that while learning the game, whereas Laettner was a polished player who never did reach superstar status, but was capable of contributing right away. In football, quarterbacks take a long time to get ready to play in the NFL, but you have running backs who aren't even that heralded, 3rd/4th-round picks who can come in right away and play; offensive linemen who dominate from the get-go.


I don't know, I think players can get alot further on pure athleticism in football and basketball than baseball. Not that skill isn't important in those sports as well, more like athleticism is less important in baseball.
   25. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 06, 2009 at 10:32 PM (#3208883)
I'm trying to get my Dr Who fix right now, but I'm still wrestling over the moral/ethical implications of watching shows on todou.com/google video (low quality slow speed and japanese subtitles but I'm getting caught up :) ) for now I guess I'll trade my morals ethics, with the knowledge that I plan on buying every season sometime during the summer.


FWIW, if you subscribe to netflix you can stream Dr. Who legally. I watched a couple episodes not knowing anything about it, and it was alright.

I can't wait for next month for BSG to be out on blu-ray.

EDIT: I'm assuming you mean the newer version of Dr. Who.
   26. baudib Posted: June 06, 2009 at 10:47 PM (#3208895)
I don't know, I think players can get alot further on pure athleticism in football and basketball than baseball. Not that skill isn't important in those sports as well, more like athleticism is less important in baseball.


I don't know, I think the skill level in both those sports is really high, and in football the complexity of offenses and defenses is pretty amazing these days. Of course, perhaps college (football at least) is a lot closer to the pros in that regard than it was 20 years ago.

Most of the hitters who have gone straight to the majors have been very successful immediately. Bob Horner won Rookie of the Year. Incaviglia hit 30 homers as a rookie. Olerud went 3-for-8 in a cup of coffee and then had a 117 OPS+ as a rookie the next year. Winfield didn't hit for a lot of power, but had a 106 OPS+.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 06, 2009 at 11:34 PM (#3208950)
I don't know, I think the skill level in both those sports is really high, and in football the complexity of offenses and defenses is pretty amazing these days. Of course, perhaps college (football at least) is a lot closer to the pros in that regard than it was 20 years ago.

The skill/athleticism ratio in baseball dwarfs that of football and basketball. Baseball is 80% skill/20% raw talent. Football is maybe 40%/60%. Basketball is 10%/80%. I'm including size/strength in athleticism.

There's a reason that they know who the basketball greats will be at age 14 or 15. You can dominate with raw athleticism.

Football requires more skill, basically b/c of the playbook, but that mostly applies to QBs and OL. RB/WR/LB/CB you can get by mostly on athletic talent.

Other than for QBs, there is no equivalent hurdle to learning to hit MLB breaking pitches for Football or Basketball.
   28. gef the talking mongoose Posted: June 06, 2009 at 11:58 PM (#3208992)
Never met him, but Eddie was in at least one of the history classes whose bluebook tests & occasional essays I used to grade while I was a TA at Arizona State in the early '80s. My prof (who knew I was a baseball fan) told me he'd come back to school for ... some sort of degree, obviously, though I can't recall what it was. Seemed like a solid student (as opposed to future NBAer Byron Scott, whose tests read like he must've had some sort of learning disability).
   29. baudib Posted: June 07, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3208995)
Football requires more skill, basically b/c of the playbook, but that mostly applies to QBs and OL. RB/WR/LB/CB you can get by mostly on athletic talent.


I think you have this about half right. Offensive linemen have an easier adjustment from college to the pros than any position other than kicker. Among high picks, OL have the best return on investment in the sense that they are the safest to project. WRs have an incredibly high bust percentage, because the pro passing game is infinitely more complicated than college.

There are actually more starters in the NFL gleaned from the 6th-7th round and undrafted ranks than in the second round, so there's clearly a lot more than just dominating with athleticism.

As I noted, the success rate for college hitters who skip the minors seems to be unusually high albeit in a ridiculously small sample.
   30. gef the talking mongoose Posted: June 07, 2009 at 12:17 AM (#3209020)
Basketball is 10%/80%.


What's the remaining 10 percent? Tattoos?
   31. AROM Posted: June 07, 2009 at 01:11 AM (#3209117)
Half of it is mental.
   32. Der_K is feeling better now. Posted: June 07, 2009 at 02:10 AM (#3209157)
Since I'm not aware of an all-purpose draft thread...

Kyle Gibson (Mizzou RHP) out 6 weeks with a stress fracture in his forearm. This may be a good thing, as there was talk he might need TJS.
   33. AROM Posted: June 07, 2009 at 02:36 AM (#3209168)
Anyone know what Bane threw?

He might have put up numbers comparable to Strasburg in college, but that doesn't mean he was anything close to as good a prospect. He was listed at 5'9, 160 and never struck many out in the majors or minors, so I doubt he was any kind of a power pitcher. No surprise if a finesse pitcher, even one good enough to go 15-1 in college, had trouble adjusting to the pros.

As I suspected, the Neyer/James guide to pitchers says "he didn't throw hard enough to brake a pane of glass".
   34. Tripon Posted: June 07, 2009 at 02:37 AM (#3209169)

Anyone know what Bane threw?


Well after Bane broke Batman's back, he threw him into the garbage.
   35. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: June 07, 2009 at 03:06 AM (#3209180)
I asked my dad, a St. Paul native who was 20 when Bane debuted, if he remembered:

Not only do I remember him but I was at his debut...the old Met was packed and rocking. It was about as exciting as a non-playoff game could be at the time.
   36. Crispix Attacks Posted: June 07, 2009 at 04:47 AM (#3209202)
Hey guys, check this out. On Baseball Tonight just now, Buck Showalter spent about five minutes talking about all these things Brien Taylor wasn't able to do that prevented him from succeeding after being the Yankees' #1 pick during the Buck Showalter era. Apparently he didn't know how to hold runners at second base, he didn't know how to receive signs, and he didn't know how to back up home plate.

So...players aren't able to learn those things in instructional league?

And...um...maybe nobody told Showalter about the injury Taylor suffered in a fistfight which ended his career.

Showalter must have just thought one day in 1994 when he was managing the Yankees, "Hm. Wasn't that Taylor kid supposed to be banging on the door to the majors by now? Oh well, I guess he was just too raw. What a shame." And then not thought about him again until tonight? But then, how could he remember all these examples of stuff he noticed Taylor screwing up in spring training?

Just inexplicable.
   37. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: June 07, 2009 at 05:28 AM (#3209216)
Washington fans simply don't want Strasburg to be another Pete Broberg.

Fun fact: Pete Broberg is the all-time leader in major league innings pitched with an ERA+ of less than 80: 963 IP.

EDIT: With a 41-71 record, too, fourth-worst (since 1920) among pitchers with 110+ decisions (Jesse Jefferson, Hugh "Losing Pitcher" Mulcahy and Jason Johnson are the top three)...
   38. PanRains Posted: June 07, 2009 at 06:06 AM (#3209226)
Eddie was a pretty nice guy when I met him.


Reservoir Dogs FTW!

Does anyone believe there should be more college players who go directly to the majors?


I think you have to think about finances. A team as non-competitive as the Nats... unless they're getting an attendance and ratings boost from Strasburg (which they may well) - they're still gonna suck with him on the major league roster, or with him in the minors. And him being in the majors means that he's that much closer to his 6 years and free agency.

But I assume he won't sign until the August 15 deadline, then you don't pitch him this year, and next year keep him in the minors for at least a few days to get another year out of him in 2017, when the Nats may be relevant - I think that's pretty wise.
   39. Shock Posted: June 07, 2009 at 06:43 AM (#3209234)
Poz mentioned this on his blog, but literally no pitcher taken 1st overall has ever really been a superstar. Check it out:

Player              Games
Bryan Bullington       13
Matt Anderson         257
Kris Benson           202
Paul Wilson           170
Brien Taylor    
Ben McDonald          211
Andy Benes            403
Tim Belcher           394
Mike Moore            450
Floyd Bannister       431
David Clyde            84
(HochevarPrice


That just blows me away. I mean there are some good careers here, no doubt, but we are talking about first overall picks. This eleven pitchers combined for 3 all star game appearances.

I don't have a point at all, I just thought it was amazing.
   40. baudib Posted: June 07, 2009 at 07:37 AM (#3209238)
I'd like to go back in time and try to learn what the four teams who passed on Dwight Gooden were thinking.
   41. Chipper Jonestown Massacre Posted: June 07, 2009 at 07:42 AM (#3209239)
Probably the same thing that Billy Beane thinks, drafting HS pitchers is stoopid...
   42. Shalimar Posted: June 07, 2009 at 11:22 AM (#3209249)
You mean the Billy Beane who drafted half a dozen HS pitchers in the first 10 rounds a few years ago after years of convincing everyone else to follow his lead and ignore them? Yeah, he must think drafting them is stoopid.
   43. baudib Posted: June 07, 2009 at 11:58 AM (#3209257)
HS pitchers have become much better investments over the past 10-15 years.
   44. CFiJ Posted: June 07, 2009 at 01:08 PM (#3209273)
for the record, I don't know which was the least developed villain, Bane or Doomsday
Doomsday, and it's not even close. Bane had his own graphic novel detailing his birth, childhood, and rise to power before "Knightfall" even began. "Knightfall" was then full of him planning and plotting before he personally confronted Batman. Doomsday was literally dropped into the story as a mute, non-communicative killing machine, and his initial appearance was simply one super-powered battle after another.
   45. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: June 07, 2009 at 01:26 PM (#3209278)
Poz mentioned this on his blog, but literally no pitcher taken 1st overall has ever really been a superstar.

Sample size. I mean, there have been 8,236 pitchers (more or less) in MLB history, and maybe one percent of them could be called "superstars". The fact that superstardom didn't happen to any of the eleven men above (even tho they're #1 picks) is not exactly a shock.

Pitching is hard. Guys get hurt, or they play for bad teams, or they suffer bad luck, or they're merely in the 95th percentile instead of the 99th. Tough standard.
   46. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: June 07, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3209292)

Sample size. I mean, there have been 8,236 pitchers (more or less) in MLB history, and maybe one percent of them could be called "superstars".


Not to turn this into a discussion of semantics, but I don't think "Hall of Fame pitcher" is synonymous with "superstar". At any rate, no pitcher on that list would be in the top 15 pitchers playing the game today, which is surprising.
   47. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 07, 2009 at 02:26 PM (#3209298)
Washington fans simply don't want Strasburg to be another Pete Broberg.

Fun fact: Pete Broberg is the all-time leader in major league innings pitched with an ERA+ of less than 80: 963 IP.


and this guy, who went directly to the Indians from Stanford the year before, ain't much better

(in fact his winning %age is ever worser than Broberg's)

I can't find college stats for either guy, so I dunno what the brass saw in either of them

I distinctly remember that the Indians front office was hyping Dunning to no end
   48. Shock Posted: June 07, 2009 at 05:38 PM (#3209366)
Sample size.


Obviously. But a sample of number one overall picks is not the same thing as some random sample out of every pitcher ever.

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