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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, June 06, 2009
This might be worthy of a roundtable discussion.
Introducing Eddie Bane, walking cautionary tale.
“I never thought about it much like that,” said Bane, taking a break from preparing for his sixth Draft as scouting director for the Los Angeles Angels. “I don’t mind at all if that’s what it is.”
Bane was as dominant a college hurler as there was. His name dots the NCAA record books. He had a 0.99 ERA as a sophomore and went 15-1 as a junior. He was 1973’s version of Mark Prior, Jered Weaver or, dare it be said, Stephen Strasburg. He went straight from the College World Series and into the Twins rotation.
“I went from striking out Dave Winfield at Minnesota at a College World Series game—that played pretty well in Minnesota—threw a few bullpens in Minneapolis and they told me I was starting July 4. Quite honestly, if every team made as much money off their first round pick as the Twins did off me, they’d be doing very well. It was the biggest crowd they ever had at [Metropolitan Stadium].”
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1. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: June 06, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3208752)EDIT: a coke for Tripon.
you say that as if it's a bad thing.
Looking back on Jim Abbott's collegiate career, it was far from dominating. Why was he rushed to the big leagues. Its not like the Angels were hurting for pitching in those days. It turned out okay, but it seems curious in retrospect. Was it because he did so well in the Olympics?
I can't answer definitively, but I do think the Olympics and the marketting had something to do with it. Abbott was a folk hero at the time and everyone wanted to see him succeed.
Ordinarily, teams are not required to place a player on their 40-man roster until either four or five years after he is signed, then they have three more years in which the player can be optioned to the minors. When a team signs a player to a major-league contract, however, he goes on the 40-man roster immediately. The benefit for the player is that he's under team control for a shorter period of time. The team would do it only when they think the player will get through the minors in three or fewer years.
-- MWE
THE DA beat me to it.
I would debate you on this, but I have to watch season 2.5 of Battlestar Galactica again.
There is a fourth option year for players with five (?) or fewer years of professional experience.
In basketball and football, there are always guys who you KNOW will be good players right away, that even if they don't dominate, they obviously can hold their own. I'm thinking of guys like Shaq and Christian Laettner; Shaq was raw but his physical skills were unprecedented and he got by on that while learning the game, whereas Laettner was a polished player who never did reach superstar status, but was capable of contributing right away. In football, quarterbacks take a long time to get ready to play in the NFL, but you have running backs who aren't even that heralded, 3rd/4th-round picks who can come in right away and play; offensive linemen who dominate from the get-go.
It seems to me that the caliber of play in college must be higher than it was 25 years ago, but fewer guys make the jump straight to the majors. You had Winfield, Bob Horner, Pete Incaviglia... John Olerud played right away.
Frank Thomas -- isn't it obvious, in retrospect, that he must have been among the best hitters in the world before he signed a contract?
I know there is an adjustment with the aluminum bats, and I'm sure that the arbitration clock has a lot to do with it.
I think that the teams should be willing to take a chance. The Cardinals have Brett Wallace who they drafted last year and it seems as if he probably could have gone straight to the majors(at least offensively) and then to watch him struggle in triple A, which will be used by people as an argument that they just aren't ready even out of college.
It's possible that the competition level of the majors is that big of a gap that college ball just doesn't prepare you for it. I guess I think it would be easier for a pitcher to immediately contribute than a hitter.
I'm trying to get my Dr Who fix right now, but I'm still wrestling over the moral/ethical implications of watching shows on todou.com/google video (low quality slow speed and japanese subtitles but I'm getting caught up :) ) for now I guess I'll trade my morals ethics, with the knowledge that I plan on buying every season sometime during the summer.
I think maybe if colleges used wood bats, you might see it more, but it seems the transition from aluminum to wood is one that takes some time for a lot of guys.
I think you will start to see college relievers go straight to the big leagues though.
I don't know, I think players can get alot further on pure athleticism in football and basketball than baseball. Not that skill isn't important in those sports as well, more like athleticism is less important in baseball.
FWIW, if you subscribe to netflix you can stream Dr. Who legally. I watched a couple episodes not knowing anything about it, and it was alright.
I can't wait for next month for BSG to be out on blu-ray.
EDIT: I'm assuming you mean the newer version of Dr. Who.
I don't know, I think the skill level in both those sports is really high, and in football the complexity of offenses and defenses is pretty amazing these days. Of course, perhaps college (football at least) is a lot closer to the pros in that regard than it was 20 years ago.
Most of the hitters who have gone straight to the majors have been very successful immediately. Bob Horner won Rookie of the Year. Incaviglia hit 30 homers as a rookie. Olerud went 3-for-8 in a cup of coffee and then had a 117 OPS+ as a rookie the next year. Winfield didn't hit for a lot of power, but had a 106 OPS+.
The skill/athleticism ratio in baseball dwarfs that of football and basketball. Baseball is 80% skill/20% raw talent. Football is maybe 40%/60%. Basketball is 10%/80%. I'm including size/strength in athleticism.
There's a reason that they know who the basketball greats will be at age 14 or 15. You can dominate with raw athleticism.
Football requires more skill, basically b/c of the playbook, but that mostly applies to QBs and OL. RB/WR/LB/CB you can get by mostly on athletic talent.
Other than for QBs, there is no equivalent hurdle to learning to hit MLB breaking pitches for Football or Basketball.
I think you have this about half right. Offensive linemen have an easier adjustment from college to the pros than any position other than kicker. Among high picks, OL have the best return on investment in the sense that they are the safest to project. WRs have an incredibly high bust percentage, because the pro passing game is infinitely more complicated than college.
There are actually more starters in the NFL gleaned from the 6th-7th round and undrafted ranks than in the second round, so there's clearly a lot more than just dominating with athleticism.
As I noted, the success rate for college hitters who skip the minors seems to be unusually high albeit in a ridiculously small sample.
What's the remaining 10 percent? Tattoos?
Kyle Gibson (Mizzou RHP) out 6 weeks with a stress fracture in his forearm. This may be a good thing, as there was talk he might need TJS.
He might have put up numbers comparable to Strasburg in college, but that doesn't mean he was anything close to as good a prospect. He was listed at 5'9, 160 and never struck many out in the majors or minors, so I doubt he was any kind of a power pitcher. No surprise if a finesse pitcher, even one good enough to go 15-1 in college, had trouble adjusting to the pros.
As I suspected, the Neyer/James guide to pitchers says "he didn't throw hard enough to brake a pane of glass".
Anyone know what Bane threw?
Well after Bane broke Batman's back, he threw him into the garbage.
So...players aren't able to learn those things in instructional league?
And...um...maybe nobody told Showalter about the injury Taylor suffered in a fistfight which ended his career.
Showalter must have just thought one day in 1994 when he was managing the Yankees, "Hm. Wasn't that Taylor kid supposed to be banging on the door to the majors by now? Oh well, I guess he was just too raw. What a shame." And then not thought about him again until tonight? But then, how could he remember all these examples of stuff he noticed Taylor screwing up in spring training?
Just inexplicable.
Fun fact: Pete Broberg is the all-time leader in major league innings pitched with an ERA+ of less than 80: 963 IP.
EDIT: With a 41-71 record, too, fourth-worst (since 1920) among pitchers with 110+ decisions (Jesse Jefferson, Hugh "Losing Pitcher" Mulcahy and Jason Johnson are the top three)...
Reservoir Dogs FTW!
I think you have to think about finances. A team as non-competitive as the Nats... unless they're getting an attendance and ratings boost from Strasburg (which they may well) - they're still gonna suck with him on the major league roster, or with him in the minors. And him being in the majors means that he's that much closer to his 6 years and free agency.
But I assume he won't sign until the August 15 deadline, then you don't pitch him this year, and next year keep him in the minors for at least a few days to get another year out of him in 2017, when the Nats may be relevant - I think that's pretty wise.
Player GamesBryan Bullington 13
Matt Anderson 257
Kris Benson 202
Paul Wilson 170
Brien Taylor
Ben McDonald 211
Andy Benes 403
Tim Belcher 394
Mike Moore 450
Floyd Bannister 431
David Clyde 84
(Hochevar, Price)
That just blows me away. I mean there are some good careers here, no doubt, but we are talking about first overall picks. This eleven pitchers combined for 3 all star game appearances.
I don't have a point at all, I just thought it was amazing.
Sample size. I mean, there have been 8,236 pitchers (more or less) in MLB history, and maybe one percent of them could be called "superstars". The fact that superstardom didn't happen to any of the eleven men above (even tho they're #1 picks) is not exactly a shock.
Pitching is hard. Guys get hurt, or they play for bad teams, or they suffer bad luck, or they're merely in the 95th percentile instead of the 99th. Tough standard.
Not to turn this into a discussion of semantics, but I don't think "Hall of Fame pitcher" is synonymous with "superstar". At any rate, no pitcher on that list would be in the top 15 pitchers playing the game today, which is surprising.
Fun fact: Pete Broberg is the all-time leader in major league innings pitched with an ERA+ of less than 80: 963 IP.
and this guy, who went directly to the Indians from Stanford the year before, ain't much better
(in fact his winning %age is ever worser than Broberg's)
I can't find college stats for either guy, so I dunno what the brass saw in either of them
I distinctly remember that the Indians front office was hyping Dunning to no end
Obviously. But a sample of number one overall picks is not the same thing as some random sample out of every pitcher ever.
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