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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, January 11, 2010MLB: Pirates closing in on deal with ChurchIntelligent design? Church of the Pastafarianism rulz.
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1. Frisco Cali Posted: January 11, 2010 at 03:12 PM (#3433843)-- MWE
He's on my "I thought he was going to be better" team of the aughts. Austin Kearns is the captain.
He's out of options, according to WTM (who is very good about tracking those things).
-- MWE
Oh I knew about Newton, I just didn't know that Talk Like a Pirate Day had gone international, ARGH.
Tampa is one of the only teams I can think of lately who have busted through this vicious cycle, by doing all three of the things you have to do well if you can't buy lots of talent:
1) Draft really well (Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Price, Shields, etc.)
2) Identify free agents and non-tenders who are low-risk, high-reward, and take a shot (Carlos Pena was somebody with many of the marks of a potentially successful, low-average, high-walk, high-K, high-HR guy. Ryan Church has #### for upside. What does he give the Pirates that Moss doesn't give them, really?)
3) You've got to get lucky with a couple of really stupid trade partners (I'm looking at you, Mets. Zambrano-for-Kazmir. The Twins trade of Garza and Bartlett for Delmon Young was big, too.)
A player like Moss only becomes a useful option if:
a) He starts hitting more in the minors (or majors).
b) If he can play center field.
Both Boston and Pittsburgh have ruled b) out and an .816 lifetime OPS in the minors (with a lot of strikeouts and a not great number of homers) and a .700 OPS in the majors in 700+ PAs doesn't satisfy a). Maybe Church isn't quite the correct direction to look in, but it's tough to fault them for looking in another direction. They had showed some interest in Ankiel earlier and that maybe was a more interesting idea as despite his age you could argue Ankiel might still have some upside.
As SBPT mentions, it isn't easy when you don't have many options and a lot of them are not good ones. The Pirates seem to be doing better than the Royals at avoiding the bad ideas at least even if they aren't dazzling anybody with great ones.
I would think the Pirates would much prefer to see if Garrett Jones is for real or run through younger flotsam on the offchance one of them over-performs than waste any money or ABs on a known mediocrity the wrong side of 30.
Well they certainly can play in the amateur FA market. The price tags are not big (<$5M for elit talents like Inoa) and these guys seem to have no hesitation of taking the highest bid, even from small-market teams.
In practice, it's harmless. I'd be complaining about this signifying the Pirates' intent to bury Milledge, except that even if they want to bury Milledge, signing Church won't do it; Church will likely as not be on the 60 day DL by Memorial Day.
But the underlying process (or lack thereof) behind making such a decision is disturbing.
The Pirates signed 31 international free agents in 2009. Is that a lot? They also took a long, hard, serious look at Muguel Sano.
Didn't this guy look absolutely awesome in his first pro season? And haven't Molina brothers been some of the better catchers in baseball?
If Sanchez turns into Yadier or even Bengi that will be an awesome draft pick.
Mike Leake. He got about the same bonus Sanchez did.
I do think there are reasons for some optimism in Pittsburgh. It's currently the easiest division in baseball and they have acquired some guys like Milledge and the other LaRoche who did enough in the minors to solidify themselves as good prospects and are still young enough to blossom. They have more well thought of prospects coming through the pipeline to go with McCutcheon, so it's not entirely hopeless.
If there's one area I think the current front office has the ability to improve on is doing a better job of getting their pound of flesh from other teams when their better players start to become expensive. I realize that's often easier said than done, but it's not impossible.
1. I don't think you have to worry about Jones not getting enough PT. Between 1B/LF/RF there will be plenty of PA for all concerned. 1/3 of Jones' starts last year came at 1B. (Or have I forgotten a Pitt 1B signing?)
2. While Jones is on the right side of 30, he's 29.
3. His AAA OPS from ages 26-28 are 807, 821, 850 ... of course he's not "for real". ZiPS likes him well enough as an average hitter for a corner. That's pretty much what Church has been his ML career. I agree you prefer Jones' greater uncertainty over Church, especially given Church's recent health history and possible decline, but it's unlikely to matter in the great scheme of things. Or to put it in classic saber-ese, neither of these guys is going to be part of the next good Pirates teams ... and neither is ever going to bring a good return in trade.
4. Of course I don't see a money figure here. If they're paying Church much more than Podsednik money, this seems a real waste of resources.
Yeah, .976 OPS. That's not gangbusters for a 21 year old at low-A; more like 'so far, so good'.
In the abstract, yes, since most #4 picks are total busts. But the problem is that the guy's ceiling is Yadier Molina. Picking that high, you have to pick a guy who at least has some small chance of one day being the best player on a championship-quality team. Picking guys with low ceilings but high chances of making the majors quickly is exactly what the Pirates did wrong for years.
Yep... pretty much. :)
Seriously, I didn't like the Alvarez pick, but he raked the daylights out of the Eastern League, and I appear to have been wrong. And they did lay out the money.
And I'm hardly the only guy that ever observed that the Pirates picked a guy at #4 that was a late first/sandwich round talent, because he'd be cheap and projected to make the majors quickly (albeit probably as a backup on good team/starter on bad team type). Who would I rather have, non-pitcher division? Grant Green comes to mind. That's besides my simply disagreeing with you about the pitchers.
Ideally they'd park Jeff Clement there for a year and see what he does, but that doesn't appear likely at this point. Pedro Alvarez will be their first baseman in 2011.
I thought they had targeted Jeff Clement for the 1B job, though - I hear they're also willing to move Doumit, so perhaps I've missed some developments in Pittsburgh.
The other points Jones are quite true - though, he exceeded all expectations in his half-season last year. Chances are certainly heavily weighted towards a crash back to earth, but we don't know for sure.
Don't get me wrong - I don't think this is Royals/Pods level dumb... I just think, if I'm the Pirates, I would prefer to use 1B and whatever corner Milledge doesn't play to weed through a whole host of probably nots... Clement, Jones, Moss, Young, maybe even Pearce or Neil Walker.
My Pirate 2010 would basically be an extended spring training and I don't have much use for 31 yo OFers in it.
Still, I suppose, being left-handed and probably making peanuts -- Ryan Church might fetch some sort of raw young arm at the trading deadline.
But they did this to save money to go over-slot elsewhere, correct?
I'll roast them until the end of time for picking Tony Sanchez at #4, even while crediting them for spending money on the rest of their draft. Good for them. If I may go back to my original point here... Ryan Church's addition to the 2010 (and possibly 2011) Pirates has zero impact on anything, now or ever. But it will cost the Pirates a seven-digit number of dollars. The Pirates presumably have a finite amount of money to spend. Why isn't this money being spent on acquiring talent, either in the draft or internationally, or on hiring people to help develop talent?
That's somewhat discomforting. It seems likely either the Pirates' front office hasn't thought its plan all the way through, or it has the wrong plan, or it doesn't have a plan. They should be carefully planning the best long-term method of spending every single cent at their disposal. Spending a dime on Ryan Church is a waste.
I hated, hated, hated the Sanchez pick, but that's not a fair summation of the situation. The Pirates invested very heavily in their late-round picks, and spent $8.9M (the sixth-highest total bonus outlay). And they managed to spend that much despite signing only 23 picks, the lowest total of any team in the draft, so they weren't just racking up the senior signs.
[Personally, I would've taken Shelby Miller, and dropped $1M worth of other signings to make room.]
Or just spent the $1 million in June and forego signing Ryan Church in January. That's the aggravating thing I've been describing.
What's wrong with paying a million bucks for Ryan Church? He's a pretty good player.
The point is that instead of finding low-priced and underrated free agents, the Pirates are wasting money by signing underrated free agents like Ryan Church to low-priced deals.
He was an acceptable player at one time. What he is now is a 31-YO player who looks like he's declining and whose skill set(*) duplicates one the team already has.
(*) I am fully aware that Church's performance record is better than Brandon Moss's. My point here is that Moss is five years younger with the same base of skills and with virtually the same minor league profile as Church when you account for differences in level, environment, and age - e.g. they're much more similar than they are different.
-- MWE
I agree with those that think Church is a slightly better version of Moss - in fact, he's probably a bit more than $1M (of value) better. But the true cost difference would, presumably, exceed that, if Moss were kept around for more than a year. [Granted, the cost of keeping Church over Moss isn't 1M in year one - as Moss would be paid to be on the roster + would likely return something via trade.]
Yes, he's a pretty good player who makes no impact on the Pirates, now or ever, unless you think his positive, white boy hustling influence in the clubhouse is worth a million bucks.
The Pirates don't have that many millions of bucks. Every single one needs to be put toward building the 2013 Pirates. The 2010 Pirates may safely be ignored, or at least, treated as a farm team of the 2013 Pirates.
If Ryan Church has the best year of his life, that transforms the 2010 Pirates from a 62-100 team into a 68-94 team. ...and there was much rejoicing? I guess?
(Actually, the upside here is if Ryan Church has the best year of his life, the Pirates might be able to swipe a real prospect for him at the deadline.)
In the abstract, it's a nice gamble on a player who's pretty good when he's on the field. To the Pirates, he's worthless. That $1 million (or whatever Church gets) is better spent in the international market or on next year's draft, where, lest we forget, the Pirates pick second. Not just in the first round, but in all the rounds.
Now, if the Nationals could swap Elijah Dukes for Moss and McCutcheon then the Bucs and Nats could start the other teams 2009 outfield in 2010
...then I'd have beatings to hand out.
Also, it's McCutchen. No "O".
No relation to Daniel McCutchen of the same counter-intuitive spelling, also on the Pirates.
Not sure what evidence you are using for your minor league lumber argument.
Using BBRef,
Moss at age 22 ops'ed .796 in AA, while Church ops'ed .892 in the Sally
At age 23, Moss was in AAA hitting .834 and Church was .830 in AA
Age 24 Moss was .874 in AAA, Church was .754 in the Eastern League.
Maybe you saw them play?
Take Jeremy Hermida. He was available for nothing, because he's eligible for arbitration. Now, I'm not suggesting that Hermida is some superstar or something, but he's going to be 26 years old in 2010, and he'll probably get a raise from the $2.25 million he made in 2009. If the Pirates traded for him and offered him a two-year deal for, say, $6m, I bet he takes it.
Because of his age, and because of flashes of ability he has shown (and he hasn't been horrible, in general), there is a chance that he would be a very good ballplayer. He has upside. He can hit righties well. He was a very good player as a 23-year-old. I know it's more than $1 million, but it's for two years, and he could probably get traded in 2011 if you're going nowehre and need salary relief.
I just think trading for players on the wrong side of 30 who have zilcho upside are a waste for teams like Pittsburgh.
They didn't trade for him.
Pirates management are not idiots. If this was any other sport, fans would be saying that they brought in a credible veteran at a bargain-basement price to provide "competition" for their underperforming youngsters who would otherwise expect guaranteed playing time. But this is the quantifiable sport, so an idea like that induces confusion. What scientific evidence do we have that Brandon Moss will perform better with so-called "motivation" and so-called "competition"? How do we know the concept of "trying harder" and "concentrating" exist? Why on earth would a team like the Pirates not have 25 players all making the minimum and guaranteed to lose 130 games? Would they somehow fail to be "motivated"? All of these ideas are ridiculously illogical.
The congregation will pray for wins in exchange for Andrew McCutchen. Gammons predicts the pastor will be the NL MVP this year.
But Moss is .287/.356/.460 lifetime in the minors in 2500 ABs, .241/.307/.393 in 650 MLB ABs. Church hit .290/.374/.503 in the minors in 2200 ABs and .272/.345/.441 in MLB in 1700 ABs.
Dan projects Moss to hit .259/.321/412 with a 90 OPS+ next year in Pittsburgh next year, and projected a .271/.345/.415 with a 103 OPS+ for Church in Atlanta.
Moss had one big year in 2004, and has followed it up with five straight mediocre ones. Church was the better hitter all five of those years including the most recent one which was Church's worst.
So yeah, I think Church is a significantly better hitter. Being younger only goes so far.
I don't think Church was a great move, but I don't think Brandon Moss is the reason why. A better move would have neither one of them being an everyday outfielder. He'll be 26 next year, and has done nothing to suggest he's a starting caliber player in one of the corners now or in the near future. Considering the near future is his peak...
I've been asking that for years. :)
I know you're making fun of me, and that's OK. If you're going to find an upside to signing someone like Church, you just laid it out: Motivation and/or veteran example-setting. That has value, but I don't think that's worth $1 million that could be spent on talent, especially not to a team that projects to lose 95+ games anyway.
Actually... Church rates as positively awesome in either outfield corner by plus/minus (and a plus center fielder, actually). Last year he only played 86 games in right field, and rated a whopping +17, third in baseball (Ichiro!, +21; Ryan Sweeney, +20).
If he's really that awesome in the outfield, I like this signing a lot more, because if he can play at least the first half of the year, that'll go a long way toward making Duke and Maholm look better than they are. Then the Pirates have a shot at trading one or both of them for more than they're worth.
While that's a longshot as well, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. There are very few teams in my lifetime where I went into the season thinking they had _zero_ shot of clearing .500. I'm not sure that makes it a goal worth considering, but I wonder what others' thoughts are (I realize I probably put greater error bars on expected records for teams like the Pirates than most people do).
But let's be realistic. The 2010 Pirates are terrible, even if you're optimistic about McCutchen, et. al. 82-80 is pretty much the best case scenario, in the same sense that 119-43 is the Yankees' best case scenario. I can't see how that should factor into a decision to sign Ryan Church. More likely it had to do with
(a) Veteran Presence™ and challenging the youngsters*; and
(b) Saying 'look, we're doing something!' to the local press.
* Note: Aside from McCutchen the Pirates actually don't have any youngsters in the outfield with upside
He's pretty good. He reminds me of old Larry Walker - medium speed but well above average at everything else.
After his concussion in NY, though, he had some weird moments in the field.
Not only is having Church an utter waste of time, having Moss and Milledge is an utter waste of time too? They need to go get someone with upside. Put that Quincy Latimore guy in the lineup, let's see what he can do. But seriously, if they are going to have these seemingly mediocre youngsters as placeholders, they might as well get as much performance as possible out of them.
Sorry for my derisive tone earlier. I think $1 million gets you credible competition, rather than just competition. If they only bring in a guy with no track record at all like Jon Van Every, or someone who is obviously washed up, the incumbents probably don't see him as a plausible threat to their jobs, unless he hits fifteen home runs in spring training.
This is also my explanation for the White Sox signing Omar Vizquel. But I tend to give GMs the benefit of the doubt (unlike any other kind of corporate executive...hmmmm.)
Y'all are getting soft.....
I guess I've come across as b*tching about the Pirates for the 3,854th time, which isn't really how I feel. I'm just expressing my radical views about spending money when money is scarce. But then, there's probably a good reason why I'm not the general manager of any baseball teams that I know of.
I proposed to my wife the day after she sustained mild head trauma in a car wreck. You have to give me credit for knowing when my chances are best.
But again, compare this to the kind of "veteran" the Littlefield regime would have signed. My guess is, Garret Anderson. Or Brian Giles. Someone with more of an eye to impressing the duller members of the press and the public. Or I could even imagine signing Jermaine Dye to 1 year and $4 million, which would serve to inform the public that Dye is much more washed-up than they had realized and he will be retiring this coming October.
Say what we will about Church, he's not obviously washed up. He doesn't inspire anyone to think "They may have just made the team worse". He merely inspires some to think "They may have just wasted a small amount of money."
They've still spent, what, six times as much on amateur signings as free-agent signings this year?
Funny and true. The silver lining even I can take from this is that the new Pirates apparently have a much better eye for a cheap high risk/high reward free agent signee than the old Pirates did.
That still doesn't mean they had to spend $1 million (or whatever) that could have been locked in the war chest for June, though.
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