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Sunday, March 10, 2019

MLB preview: Five bold predictions for upcoming season

There is going to be plenty of turnover for the 2019 MLB season.

The game is changing and that is driving much of our projections for the year.

With that being said, here are five bold predictions for the 2019 season

For the most part, these predictions don’t feel all that bold- anyone here tempted to make bolder ones?

QLE Posted: March 10, 2019 at 07:32 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: batting average, braves, home runs, manny machado, predictions

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   1. bookbook Posted: March 10, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5821638)
Bold prediction: the Mariners almost make the playoffs on the backs of the 30+ year old players they haven’t been able to unload (they can’t even get tanking right).
   2. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 10, 2019 at 12:01 PM (#5821646)
For the most part, these predictions don’t feel all that bold- anyone here tempted to make bolder ones?

If the Yankees can all stay healthy and all their players live up to their potential, they'll make the postseason.

If Bryce Harper wins the Triple Crown, he'll never have to buy a cheesesteak again.

The Red Sox will sell out Opening Day.

The Blue Jays will be the best baseball team in Canada.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5821652)
The prediction that no division winner will repeat is kinda bold. That is implying someone is going to knock the Astros, Dodgers and Indians out of the top spot... I'm not seeing that happening.

edit: oops, that prediction was NL only... which is a bit of a safer pick... still I think the Dodgers are pretty handidly ahead of the Rockies.
   4. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: March 10, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5821656)
As "bullpenning" becomes more of a thing, I could see teams increasingly asking relief pitchers to do more outfield work as teams increasingly try to keep pitchers eligible for matchup advantages later in an inning. People like Whitey Herzog did this enough to notice back in the 70s and 80s, but as bullpen games become more the norm, and the number of pitchers you can have on a roster hit their theoretical limit, and defensive shifts become ever more sophisticated, it makes too much sense to ask your relief pitchers to play outfield for a batter or two.

-
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5821661)
As "bullpenning" becomes more of a thing, I could see teams increasingly asking relief pitchers to do more outfield work as teams increasingly try to keep pitchers eligible for matchup advantages later in an inning. People like Whitey Herzog did this enough to notice back in the 70s and 80s, but as bullpen games become more the norm, and the number of pitchers you can have on a roster hit their theoretical limit, and defensive shifts become ever more sophisticated, it makes too much sense to ask your relief pitchers to play outfield for a batter or two.


I can see this as a thing, but Whiney Herzog is getting too much credit here since he only did it three times from 1986-1989, and Tekulve/Chuck Tanner did it in 1979, and the Mets did it several times in the same time frame as the Whiney led Cardinals with Orosco or Roger McDowell.
   6. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 10, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5821663)
My bold prediction is that Vlad Jr. won't be starting the season in the minors as was widely believed.
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5821665)
My bold prediction is that Vlad Jr. won't be starting the season in the minors as was widely believed.


I can see that, there is always a chance that he'll slump some time during the season to the point that you can still send him down if you want to play with the clock and if not, the monetary reward and recognition for a guy who is likely roy candidate has some promotional value that can be used today to generate income.
   8. Random Transaction Generator Posted: March 10, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5821667)
My bold prediction is that Vlad Jr. won't be starting the season in the minors as was widely believed.


Well, he's starting the season on the DL so I guess you're kind of right...
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5821671)
For the most part, these predictions don’t feel all that bold- anyone here tempted to make bolder ones?


Obviously my predictions will be Cardinal specific.....

1. Cardinals win the division, and the NL Central still has 4 teams over .500 record and both spots in the wildcard.

2. Alex Reyes wins the ROY

3. Carlos Martinez wins the CY Young (edging out Miles Mikolas)

4. Adam Wainwright wins comeback player of the year.

5. MVP goes to Goldschmidt who edges out Ozuna..

6. Cardinals win 110 games...

Bold enough for you. :)
   10. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 10, 2019 at 02:31 PM (#5821677)
6. Cardinals win 110 games...

And then lose to the wild card Padres in the Division Series.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5821678)

And then lose to the wild card Padres in the Division Series



post season is a crapshoot... :)
   12. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:06 PM (#5821684)
Mariners wii be the 6th best tanking team.
   13. Davo Has Marianne Mindset Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5821686)
I make ten BOLD PREDICTIONS every year in March. I hope to go 1 for 10. I didn’t even get that for 2018!

DAVO’S 10 BOLD PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE 2018 SEASON

1. Alcides Escobar hits 20+ homers
2. For the first time in 98 years, a player will die due to injuries sustained on the field.
3. Tyler Mahle has an ERA+ over 120 and is the Reds best starter.
4. James Shields finishes in the Top Ten in the AL in wins.
5. The Nationals finish below .500.
6. Adam Frazier has a 5-WAR season.
7. Ketel Marte hits 25+ homers and receives MVP votes.
8. Miguel Rojas is an All-Star.
9. Trey Mancini hits 45+ homers
10. Jorge Soler sets the Royals new single-season home run record.


   14. Davo Has Marianne Mindset Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5821688)
2017’s were no better!
DAVO'S 10 BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR 2017

1. Jorge Polanco has a 200-hit season.
2. Keon Broxton makes the All-Star team and receives MVP votes.
3. The Seattle Mariners win over 100 games.
4. Michael Tonkin leads the Twins in saves and is one of the....15 best relievers in the American League.
5. Victor Martinez will play so badly he loses his regular spot in the starting lineup and there is heavy speculation he will be released.
6. Robbie Ray leads the National League in strikeouts.
7. Kendrys Morales has a significantly better season than Edwin Encarnacion. Let's say....15 more "Rbat" on bb-ref.
8. Gary Sanchez has an OPS+ below 95.
9. The Milwaukee Brewers win a post-season game.
10. Phil Gosselin has a 4-WAR season.
   15. Davo Has Marianne Mindset Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5821690)
But 2016 was great!

TEN BOLD PREDICTIONS for the season, too

1. The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in the American League
2. Kole Calhoun is one of the top 3 home run hitters in the American League
3. Ian Kennedy puts up a 120 ERA+.
4. Rick Porcello receives Cy Young Award votes
5. The Athletics make the playoffs
6. The Reds finish above .500
7. Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias prove to be ace-level pitchers
8. Bryce Harper is even better this year than he was last year

Eh, that’s 8, close enough.
   16. Tin Angel Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5821691)
My bold prediction is that cardsfanboy will put Whitey Herzog down any time he is mentioned throughout the season.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5821696)
My bold prediction is that cardsfanboy will put Whitey Herzog down any time he is mentioned throughout the season.


Like that is a bold prediction... most overrated manager ever by a fanbase that actually knows something about baseball.. I get people in New York loving Jeter, they are New Yorkers, and are idiots by pretty much definition(seriously they thought that Ordonez was elite defensively) , but c'mon.. the love for a guy who led his own hand picked team to the only last place finish in 100 years, and multiple losing seasons is pretty much a weird thing from a fan base that actually knows baseball.
   18. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5821698)
2. For the first time in 98 years, a player will die due to injuries sustained on the field.


Came close to happening in 2017 a couple of times(if you include the minors), so I can see why you made that prediction.
   19. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 10, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5821699)
Mets did it several times in the same time frame as the Whiney led Cardinals with Orosco or Roger McDowell.

If by "several" you mean "one," then yes.

Tommy Lasorda used McDowell as an OF more with the Dodgers (twice in 1991) than Davey Johnson did with the Mets (once in 1986).
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5821701)
If by "several" you mean "one," then yes.

Tommy Lasorda used McDowell as an OF more with the Dodgers (twice in 1991) than Davey Johnson did with the Mets (once in 1986).


Sorry, I saw the lf/rf and thought that they were two different games, apparently they moved him around in the same game. And Orosco's performance was also the same game....

I'll still go with Chuck Tanner as the innovator of this move, before I give Whitey credit for the four times he did it.

Of course 1986 was the year it happened the most, Worrell, Orosco, McDowell and some guy named Jeff Dedmon all did that.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: March 10, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5821710)
Bold predictions:

1. Every team in the NLC finishes 83-79.

2. The Indians play 700 ball within their division and 400 ball outside of it.

3. Kimbrel signs cheap with the Cubs for 1 year, Theo trades off our best prospect out of habit anyway.

4. The Angels waste another season of Kole Calhoun.

5. Hannah files for divorce from Jeter, says she can't stand hanging around a pathetic loser.
   22. Master of the Horse Posted: March 10, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5821717)
Bold predictions

1. Max Kepler rocks a .850 plus OPS and leads the Twins in both runs scored and rbi
2. Randal Grichuk hits 35 plus homers
3. Braun still misses 30 odd games but slugs over .550
4. Lester collapses and gets yanked as a regular starter by June
5. Brewers killer first base collection of 2018 crashes hard and is one of the 5 worst at position in 2019
   23. bbmck Posted: March 10, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5821732)
1. One of the 71 living HoF inductees for their playing career admits to PED use
2. A member of the HoM who was one and done with the HoF makes a PR appearance in September
3. Someone dealing with medical expenses places their 2016 World Series ring up for sale
4. The Marlins forfeit an entire west coast trip when they run out of money in the travel budget
5. The Royals become the first team since 1992 with at least 2 SB per HR
   24. Walt Davis Posted: March 10, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5821741)
4. Lester collapses and gets yanked as a regular starter by June

The first part I can believe, the second ain't gonna happen (unless he's genuinely hurt). Even if he's rocking a 6.00 ERA through the first two months, the Cubs will give him at least a couple more months to work it out. Add in the good probability somebody else is already hurt plus yanking Lester possibly meaning the return of Chatwood.

Besides, he's a lefty. They've all got innate craftiness (just cuz Randy Johnson never needed it doesn't mean he didn't have it). If you look at FIP/peripherals, Lester's 2018 looks a lot like CC's 2015. It might take Lester another 2-3 months to figure it out but I'm as confident as I can be about any 35 year-old pitcher that he'll hang around at least league average over the last two years of the contract. (Or be at least league average in at least one of those two years.)

Variations: Lester gets rocked so bad in the spring, he goes on the DL before the season starts, comes back at end of April or early May. Lester gets rocked early and his "dead arm" puts him on the DL for a couple of months mid-season as an excuse for rest, rehab and minor workouts before returning when somebody gets hurt. But two years left on that contract (and deep respect from Theo/Jed) and they'll do everything they can to keep him on the mound until it's clearly no use. Note that doesn't deny the possibility that he's hit the final wall and should be yanked off the mound, I just don't see it happening after just two months of suckitude. (Sure, if he's got an ERA of 9 ... ) We couldn't get Chatwood out of the rotation last year until the end of July. He got lucky early but from May to July, 14 starts, 65 IP, more BB than K and a 5.92 ERA and that was only after picking up Hamels. Lester will get more rope than Chatwood. Montgomery is a great 6th starter but after that it falls off quickly for the Cubs.

As a further example ... in 2015, CC's ERA at the end of April was 5.96; end of May 5.67; end of June 5.59; end of July 5.54; end of Aug 5.27 ... then in Sept, 5 GS, 29 IP, 2.17 ERA. He ended the next April with an ERA over 5 ... then finished the year at 3.91. The Yanks were a WC team in 2015 so his performance did matter. Expensive vet pitchers a team is locked into for a couple of years are given a lot of rope.
   25. depletion Posted: March 10, 2019 at 08:13 PM (#5821748)
Bryce Harper plays excellent baseball... for 130 games.
   26. Omineca Greg Posted: March 10, 2019 at 08:30 PM (#5821749)
I don't know why people need to make new predictions.

All the prophecies that we need have already been made. I'm talking about Nostradamus, of course. The interpretation is the difficult part. I happen to be extraordinarily talented at reading the great Prophesier's works, and I don't mind sharing a little of my insight with you.

Not all my insight, however. I'm sick and ####### tired of coming home smelling like chocolate and cinnamon, so this is the year I use my talent as an interpreter of 16th century French astrology, which so far has helped my life in absolutely no ways whatsoever (well, I did know enough to cancel my vacation to the Ukrainian Black Sea, but to be honest, you didn't have to be a ############# soothsayer to прочитай надпись на стене with that one), to clean up big at the sports betting tables. By the end of October 2019, I'm going to have racked up so much winning, I'm going to retire, splitting time between Tasmania and the Omineca, which may not be everybody's dream, but once you've endured 26 winters in this godforsaken sub-Arctic hellhole, you'd make sure you were always on the Summery side of the Equator too. I'd share all my knowledge with you if you promised not to bet so much as to move the betting lines, cutting into my profits, but frankly, some of you are untrustworthy, so too bad...so sad...see you in Hobart, suckers!

I'll share a few tidbits with you though. Go ahead and bet on these, you have my permission.

Coins depreciated by the spirit of the realm,
And people will be stirred up against their King:
New peace made, holy laws become worse,
Paris was never in so severe an array.


Blue Jays continue to be affected by the rough year the Loonie is having. The yellow vest crowd in Canada gets more aggressive, worse than France, which is saying a lot. The Trudeau government falls, Scheer is elected PM, and although the county unifies, his conservative vision for the country clamps down on our nation's civil liberties.

The city of liberty made servile:
Made the asylum of profligates and dreamers.
The King changed to them not so violent:
From one hundred become more than a thousand

This is the year Philadelphia fans improve their reputation. The attendance also gets better, and baseball in general reevaluates the relationship between success off and on the field.

Those who were in the realm for knowledge
Will become impoverished at the change of King:
Some exiled without support, having no gold,
The lettered and letters will not be at a high premium.

One of the more stat savvy front offices will be let go, and replaced with "old school" management types.

The legion in the marine fleet
Will burn lime, lodestone sulfur and pitch:
The long rest in the secure place:
Port Selyn and Monaco, fire will consume them.


Sorry, Seattle. Not a good year for you guys. A last place finish is guaranteed. It's going to be worse than Grace Kelly going over a cliff...

Why don't you like me, why don't you like me
Without making me try?
I tried to be like Grace Kelly
But all her looks were too sad

Indeed, the seemingly apathetic front office will result in a team with a sad look.

The great swarm of bees will arise,
Such that one will not know whence they have come;
By night the ambush, the sentinel under the vines
City delivered by five babblers not naked


Another good year for the Red Sox I think, they have "B"s on their caps. I don't follow the team closely enough to know who he's talking about, but if you have any worries about the talent pipeline, I would put them to rest. The five babblers are obviously some of the city's media personalities, who are renowned for never shutting the #### up about anything, but in this case their chatter is warranted. And take comfort that you won't have to see Dan Shaughnessy naked.

In the places and times of flesh giving way to fish,
The communal law will be made in opposition:
It will hold strongly the old ones, then removed from the midst,
Loving of Everything in Common put far behind.

The rest of the league grows weary of the Marlins and sharing revenue with them very quickly.

By the shaven head a very bad choice will come to be made,
Overburdened he will not pass the gate:
He will speak with such great fury and rage,
That to fire and blood he will consign the entire sex.

#metoo comes to baseball this year. Big time. I don't know who the guy with the shaved head is, but his indignation over the accusations isn't going to play very well.

When the crow on the tower made of brick
For seven hours will continue to scream:
Death foretold, the statue stained with blood,
Tyrant murdered, people praying to their Gods
.

Sorry Elroy. Games aren't getting any shorter.

In the sacred temples scandals will be perpetrated,
They will be reckoned as honors and commendations:
Of one of whom they engrave medals of silver and of gold,
The end will be in very strange torments.


You heard it here first. A current HOFer is outed as as steroid user. I actually know who it is...but...you wouldn't believe the odds I'm getting on this one. So...you figure it out!

OK, I think that's pretty much it for you. There's so many more, so many, and if any of you had worn a hairnet for 30 years, you might have been able to leverage that into an empathetic friendship with me, and I might have been more forthcoming. But as it is...sorry glamour boys.

The journey is long, the road is dark and frightening, but together we can reach our destination: the Tasmania of which we all dream, where all are welcome and all prosper, made no longer of lies but truth, built not of rich men's hate but our love for our island and for each other.
Richard Flanagan

I don't even know who that dude is, but he's right, it's been a long hard road. But having mortgaged my house, checked in all my retirement savings, and borrowed money against my children's education funds, this last part is going to be easy as pie. Easier even. Pie ain't that easy.
   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 10, 2019 at 08:43 PM (#5821750)
You heard it here first. A current HOFer is outed as as steroid user. I actually know who it is...but...you wouldn't believe the odds I'm getting on this one. So...you figure it out!

Since I know you're not a rat, it can't be Fergie Jenkins.

   28. SoSH U at work Posted: March 10, 2019 at 08:46 PM (#5821751)
5. Hannah files for divorce from Jeter, says she can't stand hanging around a pathetic loser.


I call foul on this. I believe she's your ex.
   29. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 10, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5821752)
My bold prediction is that cardsfanboy will put Whitey Herzog down any time he is mentioned throughout the season.

Like that is a bold prediction... most overrated manager ever by a fanbase that actually knows something about baseball.. I get people in New York loving Jeter, they are New Yorkers, and are idiots by pretty much definition(seriously they thought that Ordonez was elite defensively) , but c'mon.. the love for a guy who led his own hand picked team to the only last place finish in 100 years, and multiple losing seasons is pretty much a weird thing from a fan base that actually knows baseball.

C'mon, now, it's not that complicated: Whitey's been calling the 1985 World Series Fake News for 34 years, and Missouri is Trump Country. Just put 2 & 2 together.
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: March 10, 2019 at 09:50 PM (#5821755)
Missouri is Trump Country.


But St Louis isn't.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: March 10, 2019 at 11:12 PM (#5821761)
I believe she's your ex.

Like I said, she can't stand hanging around pathetic losers.
   32. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 11, 2019 at 10:23 AM (#5821803)
The Mets will suffer a string of injuries to key players.

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