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Sunday, November 16, 2008

MLB: Red Sox, Tigers talking Lugo deal

The Tigers are looking for shortstop help, and may have the Red Sox’s Julio Lugo on their radar screen.

The Boston Globe reported on Sunday that Detroit is contemplating a deal with Boston to send either left-hander Nate Robertson or left-hander Dontrelle Willis to Boston for Lugo, but that some money issues would have to be resolved.

...The Red Sox might have the same notions about Robertson or Willis bouncing back in 2009. Boston has been known to take chances on reclamation project pitchers, including Bartolo Colon and Wade Miller.

Thanks to Hitref.

Repoz Posted: November 16, 2008 at 09:12 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: red sox, rumors, tigers

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1. Elston Gunn Posted: November 16, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#3010265)

Is Lugo really so bad that he'll provide no value as a utility guy? Because that's what they'll get from Willis or Robertson. I mean, Lugo's got to be better than Cora, right?

2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 16, 2008 at 09:51 PM (#3010269)

I think the relevant question is not so much Lugo's value as a utility guy as whether he's willing to take a major demotion. Very few highly-paid veterans will accept such a demotion, and it's usually a bad idea to keep a malcontent around in order to upgrade your bench. (Not that Lugo is a malcontent, but he, like most veterans, could easily turn into one if he has his job taken away from him in the middle of a 4/36 contract.)

3. It's just Steve Posted: November 16, 2008 at 10:10 PM (#3010275)

Yeah, this is a tough one. Lugo is versatile, athletic, and a fairly good base runner. Basically an ideal utility player if you neglect to consider his salary, which is a sunk cost at this point. I know Lugo might not be thrilled with the idea of being a bench guy, but I hate to see a somewhat productive player, who is clearly an upgrade over Alex Cora in every way imaginable, get flipped for something totally useless (Willis).

4. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: November 16, 2008 at 10:14 PM (#3010276)

No on Willis. Isn't he just as expensive as Lugo?

5. base ball chick Posted: November 16, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#3010280)

why would the tigers want lugo? they NEED a full time SS and lugo simply SUX with the glove, always has

you talk about a shtty trade

6. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 16, 2008 at 10:37 PM (#3010283)

No on Willis. Isn't he just as expensive as Lugo?

Willis and Robertson are both about as expensive as Lugo. They're both signed through 2010, Willis for $22M, Robertson for $17M. If it's just a choice between those two, I like Willis' upside a little better, but I doubt either of them would be very good.

Lugo would be a great, if expensive, backup in case Pedroia or Lowrie (who I guess is the starting SS now?) go down. If he won't do it though, they kind of have to make a deal like this.

7. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: November 16, 2008 at 10:46 PM (#3010290)

If I'm Doug Melvin, I stick my nose in and see if I can offer Bill Hall instead of Lugo. Hall has been a better hitter (2008 was basically even with OPS+, but Hall was better for the previous 3 years). Hall is 4 years younger. Hall is owed $6.8M and $8.4M over the next two years ($9.25M or $.5M buyout in 2011) where Lugo is guaranteed $9M over each of the next two years.

The big thing of course is defense. Lugo's career ZR at SS is .843, and it's been below .830 the last 3 years. Hall has only played SS for 261 games and his career ZR is .823, but it was comparable to Lugo's in 2005 and 2006.

I suppose it comes down to money. If the Tigers are just interested in exchanging bad contracts, I don't see the Brewers being interested. But if the Tigers want to take a chance on a SS that once hit 35 HRs, I'm sure Hall could be made available.

8. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 12:02 AM (#3010325)

Hall is looking like the Brewers 3B next year isn't he? I can't imagine they would turn to Gamel, the pitchers would revolt.

9. OCD SS Posted: November 17, 2008 at 12:16 AM (#3010330)

why would the tigers want lugo? they NEED a full time SS and lugo simply SUX with the glove, always has

According to +/-, Lugo been better than Detroit's SS for the last 2 years (beating Renteria -2 to -9 and Guillen +1 to -12). This year Lugo seemed to make errors on simple plays that he had a lot of time to think about, but showed at least decent range.

I don't know that Willis is guaranteed to give you nothing, but he'd certainly be a project for Farrell. On Detroit's end they certainly don't have any clue how to fix him, so if they're going to try to cut payroll it would make sense for them to get a full time SS for the $ they'd use to pay Willis in the minors.

10. Teufel's Graveyard Posted: November 17, 2008 at 12:19 AM (#3010333)

Hall did so poorly against RH last year that he was basically put into a platoon with Craig Counsell getting most starts at 3B at the end of the season.

There's a couple of things that could lead to Hall bouncing back this year. He is planning on getting Lasik this offseason. Some hitters have seen improvement after having that done. Also, I think Hall needs to change his approach. I personally think he is swinging for the fences too often.

As for 3B and the Brewers, I wouldn't expect Gamel to start in 2009. I would think the Brewers would look for a stopgap for this year and hope that Gamel is ready for 2010 (or midseason 2009 promotion if his defense improves)

11. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: November 17, 2008 at 12:25 AM (#3010335)

OK, if Robertson is expensive also (really? him?), then no to either of them.

12. Walt Davis Posted: November 17, 2008 at 12:56 AM (#3010347)

No on Willis. Isn't he just as expensive as Lugo?

That's pretty much the whole point of the trade. The Sox have an expensive player they no longer want but still have to pay while nobody else wants him at that price either. The Tigers have a couple of expensive pitchers they no longer want but still have to pay while nobody else wants them at that price either.

So, if you're gonna have to pay somebody (roughly) $18 M over the next 2 years anyway, the Tigers might prefer to spend that on Lugo hoping he turns it around while the Red Sox might prefer to spend that on one of the pitchers with similar hopes. But both teams know they're pretty much stuck paying $18 M over the next 2 years to somebody.

If the Red Sox could trade Lugo and $18 M for something actually useful and cheap, I'm sure they'd take that deal. But teams usually don't give up cheap, useful stuff for a backup infielder, no matter how cheap that infielder is -- Swisher trade excepted. :-)

13. tfbg9 Posted: November 17, 2008 at 01:27 AM (#3010358)

Robertson's crap. Willis looks like a soon to be LOOGY.

Lowrie's no guarantee to hit, and Lugo OBP'd .355 last year, and can really run.

Unless the Sox are sure Lugo's gonna be a malcontent if a utility guy, I'd just keep him.

The Sox have guys who can put up an ERA+ of 90 as the 4th or 5th starter in reserve anyway, no?

14. chemdoc Posted: November 17, 2008 at 01:40 AM (#3010369)

The Tigers are not looking for a long-term answer at SS, as they seem to think that someone from the minors (Iorg/Worth) will be ready to take over by 2010. I can't imagine that either Lugo or Hall gives the Tigers what they're looking for defensively.

15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 02:35 AM (#3010394)

Wouldn't Ramon Santiago be a better option than Lugo at this point? I don't get this trade. I'd rather let Santiago play, maybe sign a cheap vet like Izturis or even Eckstein to split time, and see if Robertson and/or Willis can turn things around. At least the pitchers have upside, I don't see any upside with Lugo anymore.

16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 03:27 AM (#3010422)

If nothing else, it'd be a good deal for Boston purely for the karma bump they'd get from tossing the wife-beater off their team. How many wins is it worth to have God on your side again?

17. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: November 17, 2008 at 03:38 AM (#3010429)

As much as I hate him, I'd rather have Lugo around in a utility role (assuming he doesn't cause problems) than have either of those pitchers.

18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 03:41 AM (#3010431)

If nothing else, it'd be a good deal for Boston purely for the karma bump they'd get from tossing the wife-beater off their team.

He was acquitted after his wife admitted at trial that he wasn't intending to hurt her.

19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 04:27 AM (#3010455)

Yeah, because no battered wife has ever been coerced into changing her story after the fact.

20. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: November 17, 2008 at 04:41 AM (#3010463)

Hall is looking like the Brewers 3B next year isn't he? I can't imagine they would turn to Gamel, the pitchers would revolt.

I think that Ryan Braun proves that actual revolt would not happen.

21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 04:57 AM (#3010468)

Yeah, because no battered wife has ever been coerced into changing her story after the fact.

And no woman has ever falsely accused her husband of domestic abuse.

I don't know what happened between Lugo and his wife, and neither do you.

22. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 06:02 AM (#3010497)

I don't know what happened between Lugo and his wife, and neither do you.

Indeed, which is why we shouldn't cast aspersions. Unless we want to end up in a world where we'd boohiss Vlad for the naughty things he does to himself under the cover of night in the pale glow of his laptop.

edit: btw, if it gets Lugo off the team, i'm all for it.

23. comrade DDT Posted: November 17, 2008 at 07:56 AM (#3010519)

Hall is looking like the Brewers 3B next year isn't he? I can't imagine they would turn to Gamel, the pitchers would revolt.

I think that Ryan Braun proves that actual revolt would not happen.

I'm sure that if Matt Gamel hits on a comparable level to Braun, a lot would be forgiven.

24. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 17, 2008 at 10:13 AM (#3010530)

I think that Ryan Braun proves that actual revolt would not happen.

Or it did happen and they moved him to LF to prevent mass decapitations.

25. OCD SS Posted: November 17, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#3010538)

Unless we want to end up in a world where we'd boohiss Vlad for the naughty things he does to himself under the cover of night in the pale glow of his laptop.

Wait, that's wrong?

26. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 01:51 PM (#3010540)

Hint: I'm not beating my wife under there.

27. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: November 17, 2008 at 01:53 PM (#3010541)

If the Tigers want a crappy shortstop that will only cost them a C prospect AND half his salary would be paid for, then Bobby Crosby is their man. Why the Sawx want Robertson or Willis is beyond me.

28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#3010542)

And as far as credibility goes, I don't think it's unreasonably suspicious to doubt any husband who actually tries to sell the "she walked into a (car) door" excuse.

Really? That's the best you've got? You might as well blame it on marauding velociraptors.

29. OCD SS Posted: November 17, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#3010544)

If the Tigers want a crappy shortstop that will only cost them a C prospect AND half his salary would be paid for, then Bobby Crosby is their man.

I don't think the Tigers want to give up a C prospect or take on any additional salary. This deal would get them a SS with no increase in cost.

Why the Sawx want Robertson or Willis is beyond me.

I imagine it's either Farrell looking at one of them (I'd guess Willis) and thinking he can fix him, or just a desire to get Lugo off the team.

30. The Essex Snead Posted: November 17, 2008 at 02:46 PM (#3010559)

I would take a trunkful of spoked Dontrelle Willis rookie cards for Lugo right now if I were Theo & company.

31. villageidiom Posted: November 17, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#3010561)

Really? That's the best you've got? You might as well blame it on marauding velociraptors.

I hate it when marauding velociraptors and Albert Belle frame Julio Lugo for beating his wife.

32. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 03:25 PM (#3010581)

Would Lugo really make a better utility option than Cora? I'm asking because I don't know.

33. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: November 17, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#3010596)

Would Lugo really make a better utility option than Cora? I'm asking because I don't know.

Yes. There isn't a thing he doesn't do better than Cora. Well, I guess Cora makes less errors, but that's it.

34. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#3010627)

PMR shows Cora as a better shortstop this year, but I don't have time to go looking through all the defensive stats at the moment.

35. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 17, 2008 at 06:04 PM (#3010703)

Yes. There isn't a thing he doesn't do better than Cora. Well, I guess Cora makes less errors, but that's it.

Does Cora still hold that all-important 'intangibles' title like Varitek? A few years ago every time he got into a game that's all that came out of announcer's mouths. Has that mystique passed him by?

36. SoSH U at work Posted: November 17, 2008 at 06:10 PM (#3010712)

Does Cora still hold that all-important 'intangibles' title like Varitek? A few years ago every time he got into a game that's all that came out of announcer's mouths. Has that mystique passed him by?

I'm pretty sure CBW said Cora was the smartest player he'd ever played with. I wouldn't be surprised to see him managing one day.

37. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 17, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#3010725)

Yes. There isn't a thing he doesn't do better than Cora. Well, I guess Cora makes less errors, but that's it.

I think you're probably right, but Cora did have at least sport a .371 OBP last year. Not that he'll ever do that again, but Cora did have a pretty great season for a utility infielder. He wasn't spectacular in the field, but I'm not sure there's much more you could ask for in a utility guy-type season.

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MLB: Red Sox, Tigers talking Lugo deal

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