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Monday, March 25, 2019

MLB spring training roundup: Cabrera continues torrid spring

Miguel Cabrera continued his resurgent spring Sunday, hitting a two-run homer and two-run double as the Detroit Tigers walloped the Toronto Blue Jays 18-6 in Lakeland, Fla.

Cabrera, who turns 36 on April 18, is coming off an injury-shortened 2018 season in which he hit .299 with only three home runs and 22 RBIs in 38 games. He has only 19 home runs and 82 RBIs in the last two seasons.

But Sunday’s performance now gives the two-time American League MVP five home runs and 15 RBIs this spring, while sporting a .348 batting average and 1.165 OPS.

Here’s hoping that this continues into the regular season- it would be nice to see Cabrera recover after the last two seasons he’s had….

 

QLE Posted: March 25, 2019 at 10:26 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: best shape of his life, miguel cabrera, spring training

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   1. JL72 Posted: March 25, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5825086)
I completely understand that Cabrera is and will be an albatross for the Tigers going forward.

But I am still excited and hopeful that he can give them a couple more years of excellent to very good performance before the decline truly hits.
   2. Master of the Horse Posted: March 25, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5825090)
Was it Fangraphs that did the study on spring training stats that showed that power may carry over into the regular season? Meaning the rest has little predictive value but if a guy is crushing the ball that may continue once things count. If so maybe a good sign for MC though if he has not cut some weight seems like just a matter of time before he gets hurt again.
   3. JL72 Posted: March 25, 2019 at 12:52 PM (#5825110)
If so maybe a good sign for MC though if he has not cut some weight seems like just a matter of time before he gets hurt again.


I am not familiar with that study, but definitely agree on this.
   4. Accent Shallow is Having an Average Weekend Posted: March 25, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5825113)
Was it Fangraphs that did the study on spring training stats that showed that power may carry over into the regular season?


John Dewan, maybe?

Link
   5. Walt Davis Posted: March 25, 2019 at 07:30 PM (#5825228)
Dan R in the Economist I believe. I came across it the other day. I'm sure there's also something on fangraphs.

It was still, if I recall, a pretty narrow finding ... something like an ISO 150 points over your career norm was correlated at some moderate level with a higher-than-predicted ISO. Hard to say how a finding like that would apply to an older star returning from injury -- is the hoped-for boost to the 150 ISO of his last 800 PAs or the 235 ISO of his career or the 170 ISO that ZiPS projects or the 200 ISO that Steamer projects. At 36, Pujols put up a 190 ISO with a perfectly cromulent overall line of 268/323/457, good for a 113 OPS+. It would be great if Miggy can top that significantly.

And Pujols this spring: 350/409/600. Or Miggy last year: 664 OPS in his first 50 PA, 1207 in his next 54, 660 in his last 49, now 54 awesome spring PAs. Take your pick.
   6. Jose Canusee Posted: March 25, 2019 at 09:19 PM (#5825253)
We all know that guys that go full bore into their last year (Bonds, Ortiz) are super rare, but it seems there are as many greats who looked washed up after 35 and had a flash or two before the final decline. Even Ted Williams hit .254 at age 40 (walking his way to a 114 OPS) before retiring after a 190 OPS age 41 year.
handful of other long term 1b types:
OPS McCovey age 36-39: 164 129 82 132
Big Hurt age 32-36: 163 94 119 146 156
Thome age 36-39: 150 124 117 121 182
Eddie Murray age 34-39: 159 105 115 112 87 129
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 26, 2019 at 05:42 PM (#5825579)
Yes, the truly great hitters usually age well with the bat, it's more the playing time that gets them in their late 30s (main example there being McCovey who averaged about 425 PA in those years). There were a number of reasons to expect Pujols (and now Miggy) to continue to be decent-good hitters in their late 30s. It clearly went off-track for Pujols, it's so far going off-track for Miggy.

And of course these samples (which I use a lot too) suffer from selection bias. Especially historically, a slugger would generally get just one, maybe two chances to show they could still hit so the ones we see are mainly the ones who did. This changes somewhat in the modern long-term contract era in that Pujols probably wouldn't be back for his age-39 season if this was 1975.
   8. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 07:30 PM (#5825593)
This changes somewhat in the modern long-term contract era in that Pujols probably wouldn't be back for his age-39 season if this was 1975.


Well, not only that, but people have a better idea now of what constitutes value. Dave Parker kept getting contracts and having teams trade actual MLB players for him long after he ceased being a useful player, because of the RBIs. From 1986-1991, Parker posted WAR of 0.3, -1.2, 0.2, 0.3, 1.1, -1.0, During that time, the A's traded Jose Rijo for him. The Angels traded Dante Bichette form. The Brewers signed him to a multi-million$ contract.
   9. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 07:34 PM (#5825594)
Joe Carter is another one. Carter was below replacement value every year from 1995-97, and yet the orioles signed hm to a $3 million contract for 1998, because he kept hitting HRs and driving in runs.
   10. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 26, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5825598)
Point being, Pujols in 2016 hit 31 HR and drove in 119. In 2017 he hit 23 and drove in 101. Given what happened with Parker and Carter, and given that Pujols was much better than either of them in the traditional stats throughout his career, I don't think last year would have been the end of the road for him in the past.

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