Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, April 02, 2018

MLB to warn Phillies regarding pitching change

THEY HAVE BEEN WARNED!!

The Phillies will receive a formal warning from Major League Baseball for making a pitching change in the third inning Saturday night in Atlanta without having left-hander Hoby Milner warmed up and ready to enter the game, a source said Sunday.

MLB is still reviewing the incident, but it believes umpire Jerry Layne handled the situation appropriately given the circumstances.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 02, 2018 at 12:11 PM | 67 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: gabe kapler, phillies

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. eddieot Posted: April 03, 2018 at 08:40 AM (#5647392)
The whole series was a fiasco and he managed to gas an entire bullpen in three days. Gonna be a long season...
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 08:57 AM (#5647399)
The early returns on the new age, experience-free managers is not good. Aaron Boone also completely mismanaged his pen, and by Sunday had to push Betances into a 2nd inning with hilarious results.
   3. bunyon Posted: April 03, 2018 at 09:01 AM (#5647400)
I just don't get this. Bullpen management isn't rocket science. These guys have been around the game for a loooooong time. These weren't little errors where the heat of a pennant race forces tough choices. The right moves were obvious and they whiffed completely.

He had better be a really, unbelievably good people person.
   4. eddieot Posted: April 03, 2018 at 09:25 AM (#5647408)
And where the hell was Robby Thomson? They brought him in specifically because he was an experienced bench coach. The whole Atlanta series was, in my sons' words, an epic fail. Gonna be a long year...
   5. McCoy Posted: April 03, 2018 at 09:29 AM (#5647409)
The issue is that nowadays a manager is pushed by the FO to gain the leverage advantage in every situation thus leading to pulling starters earlier and earlier and pulling relievers more and more. You want to do that in the playoffs? That is fine but a season is pretty darn long and you have to look at the bigger picture during the season. The good managers have that figured out. The newer ones have to grown confidence in their positional security to pull it off.
   6. SoSH U at work Posted: April 03, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5647417)
That is fine but a season is pretty darn long and you have to look at the bigger picture during the season.


Yeah, any desire for starter pitcher usage that resembles the playoffs is going to run headlong into the realities of the 162 game season.

   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5647420)
The issue is that nowadays a manager is pushed by the FO to gain the leverage advantage in every situation thus leading to pulling starters earlier and earlier and pulling relievers more and more. You want to do that in the playoffs? That is fine but a season is pretty darn long and you have to look at the bigger picture during the season. The good managers have that figured out. The newer ones have to grown confidence in their positional security to pull it off.

Yup. You just can't pull effective SPs at much less than 100 pitches. There are too many innings that need to be thrown.

The Nola opening day hook was a joke. By far your best pitcher has given up 1 run through 5.1 IP, with only 69 pitches. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Boone did the same thing with Tanaka on Saturday. 6 IP, 1 run, 79 pitches, and just mowing people down. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
   8. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5647425)
I can't wait to see this guy try to take Jake Arrieta out of the game in the 5th inning because he has thrown 70 pitches already.
   9. Blastin Posted: April 03, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5647449)
Boone did the same thing with Tanaka on Saturday. 6 IP, 1 run, 79 pitches, and just mowing people down. Dumb, dumb, dumb.


That was Friday. And the Betances issue was Saturday.

That said, it's four games and boy howdy it hasn't been as bad as Kapler just yet.

Def overthinking. I'm glad we aren't running Clippard out there just because he's "proven" anymore though.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5647460)
That said, it's four games and boy howdy it hasn't been as bad as Kapler just yet.

I believe that's what they call "damning with faint praise". :-)

Def overthinking. I'm glad we aren't running Clippard out there just because he's "proven" anymore though.

No, now we're giving high leverage innings to Betances because of what he did in 2015.
   11. Zonk is a Doppleclapper Posted: April 03, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5647473)
I can't wait to see this guy try to take Jake Arrieta out of the game in the 5th inning because he has thrown 70 pitches already.


Jake no longer has the capability to get through 5 innings on 70 pitches, fortunately (or unfortunately) for Kapler....
   12. BDC Posted: April 03, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5647476)
I usually assume that some of these ultra-short first-week starts happen because pitchers are still working into shape and you want to be careful with them at the start of a season. However, given the chaos described above, who knows what the coaches are thinking.
   13. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 03, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5647500)
It must be what the front offices want done, which is why they've hired inexperienced managers who will go along with it. The last four relievers in the eight-man bullpen are fungible and can be shuffled back and forth between the majors and AAA as needed. It could work all season as long as teams are willing to hang a reliever out to dry once in a while. Since relievers are inherently less valuable than starters--even if starters do only work five innings--that might be a reasonable tradeoff.
   14. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 03, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5647513)
I usually assume that some of these ultra-short first-week starts happen because pitchers are still working into shape and you want to be careful with them at the start of a season.


Zack Greinke lasted five and two thirds in his only start, giving up one run and throwing 83 pitches. There are a grand total of six starters in the entire National League who went more than six innings in their first start.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5647520)
Zack Greinke lasted five and two thirds in his only start, giving up one run and throwing 83 pitches. There are a grand total of six starters in the entire National League who went more than six innings in their first start.

And I'm saying it's dumb. There's zero evidence that pitches 80-100 have any negative impact of any kind on a pitcher who is pitching well.
   16. BDC Posted: April 03, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5647527)
There's zero evidence that pitches 80-100 have any negative impact of any kind on a pitcher who is pitching well

But a lot of teams do it the first time through the rotation in a given year. And have been for a while; only 6 of 24 starters threw ≥100 pitches on Opening Day ten years ago, for instance, and for most of the 24, Opening Day was among their shortest outings. Maybe the caution is excessive, but there has to be caution at some point, or they'd be throwing 100 from the start of Spring Training.
   17. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: April 03, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5647528)
I'm with Tom, there are reasons to give the business to Kapler but I don't think his handling of Nola is one of them. The Red Sox lifted David Price after 76 pitches of 4 hit shutout baseball. Teams are being more and more conservative (and now pitchers don't get hurt anymore so yay!) and I think it's reasonable to assume that in the Nola case Kapler was doing precisely what he was hired to do. Sunday was a colossal #### up of course.

More generally I find criticisms of managers often far in excess of what is reasonable. I've said it before but managers make three types of decisions;

1. Decisions I agree with that work - any idiot can make that decision
2. Decisions I don't agree with that work - results based decision, it will backfire eventually.
3. Decisions that don't work - Moron
   18. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 03, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5647548)
Check out their spring training appearances:

Greinke: 1.2, 1.2, 1.0 and 6.0. (75 pitches was his high, second highest 29)

Tanaka: 1.1, 4.0, 2.2, 5.2 (36 pitches was his high)

Nola: 2.0., 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 4.0 (33 pitches was his high)

Price: 4.0, 5.0, 3.0 (34 pitches was his high)

I don't think any of them have been fully stretched out at this point. Kind of dumb to overly stress a pitcher in his first start.
   19. SoSH U at work Posted: April 03, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5647557)
Nola: 2.0., 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 4.0 (33 pitches was his high)


He threw 33 or fewer pitches in a five-inning outing?
   20. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 03, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5647566)
That is what mlb.com says. Seems like it is incorrect.

http://m.mlb.com/player/605400/aaron-nola?year=2018&stats=gamelogs-s-pitching-mlb

Tanaka throwing 36 in 5.2 IP also seems wrong.

Either way, these guys are not stretched out.

   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5647570)
Either way, these guys are not stretched out.

What does that mean? Tanaka had retired 13 straight batters when he was pulled. There were no signs of fatigue. His velocity had not declined.

If a guy doesn't have endurance it should show up in results, shouldn't it?

Teams are being more and more conservative (and now pitchers don't get hurt anymore so yay!)

Yeah, exactly. We get 25% less pitching from the good pitchers, and they still get hurt constantly. Makes no sense.
   22. RJ in TO Posted: April 03, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5647572)
That is what mlb.com says. Seems like it is incorrect.

http://m.mlb.com/player/605400/aaron-nola?year=2018&stats=gamelogs-s-pitching-mlb

Tanaka throwing 36 in 5.2 IP also seems wrong.

Either way, these guys are not stretched out.
Don't trust the spring training pitch count numbers. It has Aaron Nola throwing 18 innings in spring training, using only 116 pitches, of which 104 were strikes, which is clearly nonsense. They do something weird like count all plate appearances ending in a hit or out as one pitch, and all strikeouts and walks as occurring on the minimum number.

   23. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: April 03, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5647622)
The way MLB tracks pitches every walk is 4 pitches, every strike out is 3 pitches and every other at bat is 1 pitch.
   24. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5647625)
The way MLB tracks pitches every walk is 4 pitches, every strike out is 3 pitches and every other at bat is 1 pitch.


It appears that Pitch f/x doesn't kick in until the regular season. Frustrates the hell outta me when I follow a ST game on Gameday.
   25. bunyon Posted: April 03, 2018 at 04:23 PM (#5647643)
It looks to me like they don't ramp pitchers up very smartly (but what do I know?). I saw a lot of guys who were 1 IP, 1 IP, 2 IP, 1.2 IP, 6 IP. Why not a little more each time, arriving at 5 IP a couple of times before it starts for real. I don't actually mind pulling starters earlier than usual early in the season but the couple of examples where a guy was cruising at 70 pitches should not be the low limit. A guy who has good stuff going should be able to do 80 or 90 at the start. If he can't, they aren't using ST right.

Also, if your starters can't give you more than 70 pitches the first couple of weeks, they really need to expand the rosters for April.
   26. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: April 03, 2018 at 04:42 PM (#5647652)
I saw a lot of guys who were 1 IP, 1 IP, 2 IP, 1.2 IP, 6 IP. Why not a little more each time, arriving at 5 IP a couple of times before it starts for real.


One thing that happens a lot is guys in those middle starts throw a few more pitches down in the bullpen complete with sitting down and getting back up. For example David Price only pitched 3 innings in his last start so if you look at it he went; 4IP, 5IP, 3IP, but the TV broadcast mentioned several times that he was going to throw a couple of extra innings in the bullpen after coming out. I assume that's not an approach unique to the Red Sox.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2018 at 09:57 PM (#5647771)
Boone did it again today. Pulled his starter after 80 pitches, and the bullpen blew a 4-1 lead.

Luckily Didi Gregorius thought he was Babe Ruth today.
   28. Howie Menckel Posted: April 03, 2018 at 10:20 PM (#5647776)
well, the non-lengthy SP Montgomery walked the No. 8-9 hitters (his 3rd and 4th of the game) to start the 5th inning in dismal weather. I'd have yanked him then. seemed like Boone went for the old-school "gotta allow the SP a chance at the W" - and then pulled the ripcord.

Montgomery not only is no Aaron Nola, he wasn't even pitching like him today. apples and oranges

   29. cardsfanboy Posted: April 03, 2018 at 10:35 PM (#5647785)
More generally I find criticisms of managers often far in excess of what is reasonable. I've said it before but managers make three types of decisions;

1. Decisions I agree with that work - any idiot can make that decision
2. Decisions I don't agree with that work - results based decision, it will backfire eventually.
3. Decisions that don't work - Moron


Even that is too simplistic.

You should have a larger matrix...
1. Decisions I agree with that work.
2. Decisions I wouldn't have made, but are reasonable/arguable(this is the one that seems to trip up most fans... they are stuck with your three system metric, while not acknowledging that there is any world in existence that a person can make a reasonable decision that they disagree with....)
then you can add the rest of your bull #### examples.... but my god the ignoring of number two is pretty much the entire example of people hating managers, in that they refuse to acknowledge that there is a world in which a decision other than their own could be made....even "The Book" talked about game theory and stealing as an option to create the situation for future analysis.

As an example... I mean, if I'm a manager in the National League, I would NEVER bat my pitcher 9th, 8th is the only option that remotely makes sense to me.... but I can see the argument for going with tradition....don't agree with it remotely, but I can see the argument.
   30. Endless Trash Posted: April 03, 2018 at 10:57 PM (#5647796)
I hate to say it, but this thread reads like a bunch of old timers whining about back in their day.

Get over it guys, sorry. This is how it is now. A fresh reliever is better than a starter facing the lineup for the 3rd time. Teams aren't going to do dumb things just to satisfy your nostalgia.
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: April 03, 2018 at 11:18 PM (#5647806)
I hate to say it, but this thread reads like a bunch of old timers whining about back in their day.

Get over it guys, sorry. This is how it is now. A fresh reliever is better than a starter facing the lineup for the 3rd time. Teams aren't going to do dumb things just to satisfy your nostalgia.

I am pleased to see a dumb general comment from what I assume is a younger participant. no generation should get to have a monopoly on dumb.

and I say this after saying I think the Yankees should have pulled Montgomery in the 5th - after having noted that Nola being pulled in that Phillies game was preposterous. context can be fun.

"A fresh reliever is better than a starter facing the lineup for the 3rd time."

note the absence of context.
   32. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 07:59 AM (#5647842)
Get over it guys, sorry. This is how it is now. A fresh reliever is better than a starter facing the lineup for the 3rd time. Teams aren't going to do dumb things just to satisfy your nostalgia.


I think you are missing the complexity here.

We saw that in the 2017 playoffs, managers kept getting themselves into trouble by observing the "3rd time through the lineup" rule, pulling starters very early and then having finding themselves without options late in the game. And that's in the PLAYOFFS, when every pitcher is prepared to go balls to the wall.

Even if Random 5th Reliever is better than Aaron Nola in the 6th inning (which is itself highly questionable), it might make sense to keep Nola in the game, because he can still throw extra pitches with ease. You can't maximize your probabilities in every single AB. This isn't Game 7 of the World Series here.
   33. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:38 AM (#5647849)
The thing about pitchers - about all athletes, really - is that they really do have days that they're "on" and days that they're "not". One of the brilliant insights of sabermetrics is that these hot streaks are almost completely unpredictable. A guy may have a hit .700 over his last week and then go hitless for five games. It happens. Just when you think a guy is really hot, poof, there it goes.

So, yes, on average, a fresh average reliever is better than a fresh average starter facing a lineup for the third time. But there are no averages. Often the guy brought in, especially earlier in games, is not your average reliever. It's some schlub that no one wants to give a lot of innings to.

Also, and this is, I think, the big point, if you have a starter who is cruising. Who is clearly "on", pulling him in favor of a guy who you have no idea about it is dangerous. Now, a starter can fall apart quickly. I think once you get to third time through, you should have your relief pitcher stretching, softly tossing, ready to get ready quickly. But if the guy is on and you have no concerns about overwork (as might be the case this early in the season), taxing your pen just for philosophy will kill you in the end.

There can be no hard and fast rules in pitcher usage. Life is gray. Deal with it.
   34. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:44 AM (#5647851)
2. Decisions I wouldn't have made, but are reasonable/arguable(this is the one that seems to trip up most fans... they are stuck with your three system metric, while not acknowledging that there is any world in existence that a person can make a reasonable decision that they disagree with....)


I agree, I think that most fans approach it the way I suggested though. As you note, that's wrong but that's why I find the complaints about managers to be seriously overblown. I'm always a lot more interested in WHY a manager makes a decision than anything else.

As an example on Opening Day the Red Sox lost when Joe Kelly entered with a 4-0 lead in the 8th and decided he wouldn't throw strikes. A friend of mine was ranting and raving that night "you can't trust Kelly in a tight game what's Cora doing?" While I share his distrust of Kelly a 4 run lead against a team that had one hit and frankly isn't very good (Tampa) is not the situation to go to your best reliever. If you can't trust a reliever in that spot he probably has no business being on the roster.
   35. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:55 AM (#5647855)
Hoby Milner has pitched in every game so far, and has recorded 4 outs.
   36. Greg Pope Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5647860)
The thing about pitchers - about all athletes, really - is that they really do have days that they're "on" and days that they're "not".

It's been a while, so maybe there's been more research, but didn't MGL publish something years and years ago that said that this isn't true? That a given SP can be expected to perform about the same in the (for example) 6th inning, regardless of whether said SP has given up nothing or given up 5.


   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5647864)
There can be no hard and fast rules in pitcher usage. Life is gray. Deal with it.

Exactly.

Get over it guys, sorry. This is how it is now. A fresh reliever is better than a starter facing the lineup for the 3rd time. Teams aren't going to do dumb things just to satisfy your nostalgia.

And if you never let your SPs face the lineup a third time, you will have no fresh RPs. Everyone will be gassed, all the time.

Not to mention the point already made that your 6th, 7th, and 8th RPs are very unlikely to be better than a SP who is throwing well.

The real idiocy of this "3rd time through the lineup thing" is that managers are still letting SPs face the #1-4 hitters a third time, and then yanking them. If you can face the good hitters a 3rd time, you should be able to face the mediocre ones.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5647866)
#36 - that's still stathead orthodoxy. Personally I think the "hot hand" theory is irrelevant here. Nola had thrown 60ish pitches and had a 5-0 lead. There was one man on base. It's not a critical situation in any way. It doesn't matter if he's cruising or scuffling. You want more innings out of him so you can save your bullpen for future moments that are actually important.

It's possible that he always had a 70 pitch limit or something for his first start, which is fine, whatever. But if this change was supposed to help win the game, it was a dumb one.
   39. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:37 AM (#5647870)
The real idiocy of this "3rd time through the lineup thing" is that managers are still letting SPs face the #1-4 hitters a third time, and then yanking them. If you can face the good hitters a 3rd time, you should be able to face the mediocre ones.

I wonder when we see a manager start the game with a reliever. Do it at home and you can even bat him third with a bonus planned pinch-hitting appearance. You get a fresh max effort arm to face the top of the opposing lineup, you basically ensure that your SP will not face those hitters a 3rd time, you don't need to let a pitcher bat until the 12th PA instead of the 9th ... it's got a lot of benefits.
   40. SoSH U at work Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5647884)
We saw that in the 2017 playoffs, managers kept getting themselves into trouble by observing the "3rd time through the lineup" rule, pulling starters very early and then having finding themselves without options late in the game. And that's in the PLAYOFFS, when every pitcher is prepared to go balls to the wall.


What we also saw in the playoffs is that not everyone of these relievers is a lights-out flame thrower who can be relied upon in any kind of innings increment. By the end of 2017, the Astros were giving their high-leverage relief innings to starters, because Hinch had no faith left in his pen.

Relievers are relievers because they're shittier pitchers. And if you keep running them out there with greater frequency, that lack of quality will become more and more apparent.

   41. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 04, 2018 at 10:42 AM (#5647906)
Clearly the forward-thinking, holistic solution here is to come up with a radical defensive shift that allows you to play only 8 fielders, thus allowing you to carry 12 relief pitchers on the roster.
   42. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5647975)
#36 - that's still stathead orthodoxy. Personally I think the "hot hand" theory is irrelevant here.

It's not even a hot hand theory. My view is that, with a 5-0 lead, only a very, very cold hand can beat you. If your starter is going good, he's unlikely to suddenly get creamed. He's got command and they aren't hitting him. I have absolutely no doubt he will get harder his third time through the lineup but the numbers don't say: "First two times through the lineup, aces, third time he won't get an out." The numbers just say the starter will be worse the third time through than the first time. By bringing in a reliever, on average, he will be better than your starter. On average, he will be his average self. But he also might be his worst self, which you can't know until you bring him in. And his worst self is the only thing that beats you there.

   43. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5647981)
It's not even a hot hand theory. My view is that, with a 5-0 lead, only a very, very cold hand can beat you. If your starter is going good, he's unlikely to suddenly get creamed. He's got command and they aren't hitting him. I have absolutely no doubt he will get harder his third time through the lineup but the numbers don't say: "First two times through the lineup, aces, third time he won't get an out." The numbers just say the starter will be worse the third time through than the first time. By bringing in a reliever, on average, he will be better than your starter. On average, he will be his average self. But he also might be his worst self, which you can't know until you bring him in. And his worst self is the only thing that beats you there.

I take this further. I say don't keep taking out effective pitchers, who are not fatigued, in search of an ineffective one. I'm constantly baffled when a RP has a 6-10 pitch perfect inning and gets lifted.

Managers just don't want to manage. They don't want to be asked to judge who is tired and who isn't, who is effective, and who isn't. They want a flow chart they can follow. That's bad managing.
   44. Greg Pope Posted: April 04, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5647998)
#36 - that's still stathead orthodoxy. Personally I think the "hot hand" theory is irrelevant here.

Oh, I agree in these cases. You need to get more innings, and in a 5-0 game you go with your starter until he gets in actual trouble. Or reaches an actual reasonable early season pitch count. Which is not 60.
   45. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5648002)
I take this further. I say don't keep taking out effective pitchers, who are not fatigued, in search of an ineffective one. I'm constantly baffled when a RP has a 6-10 pitch perfect inning and gets lifted.

Yes, absolutely.
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: April 04, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5648013)
I wonder when we see a manager start the game with a reliever.
It seems like the Rays plan on doing it once or twice a week this season, although not exactly in the manner you are thinking about. I think they want to get at least a couple innings out of their reliever-starters.
   47. JKS1224 Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5648024)
To what extent is "times through the order" just a proxy for pitch count anyway? Is there evidence that times through the order matters independently from pitch count? Obviously the two variables are highly correlated, which makes that analysis more difficult.

   48. Eddo Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5648043)
And if you never let your SPs face the lineup a third time, you will have no fresh RPs. Everyone will be gassed, all the time.

I definitely agree with you overall here, snapper, but I think this is a point too far.

The no-third-time rule can work without wearing down your pitching staff, but it has to happen organizationally(*). It would require training your entire staff to expect to throw no more than 3-4 innings and on shorter rest than has been given historically, but it's possible.

(*) This is similar to how teams handle Joey Gallo types who get extreme shifts. Asking Joey Gallo to change from a pull hitter in the short term is not going to work out well; but if organizations start selecting for different attributes, there will be fewer players like Gallo and more players that can't be shifted against.
   49. Eddo Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5648046)
Managers just don't want to manage. They don't want to be asked to judge who is tired and who isn't, who is effective, and who isn't. They want a flow chart they can follow. That's bad managing.

Agree, but that might be more because of external pressures on how they're evaluated as opposed to personal aversion to having to make those judgements.
   50. BDC Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5648047)
I'm constantly baffled when a RP has a 6-10 pitch perfect inning and gets lifted

It's not literally baffling, is it? The idea is that the RP will be available to pitch that same perfect inning tomorrow. Obviously he's not going to pitch 162 innings at that rate, because there will be plenty of games where he's not needed, and ideally you'll get 70-80 such games out of the better non-closer relievers that way. In coordinating personnel, managers and coaches have decided that predictable availability beats riding a hot hand one day and then continually having to improvise. It's understandable in terms of workflow.

(I can certainly see where this would madden anybody who hates the idea of personnel coordination and workflow impinging on baseball games :)

   51. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5648062)
It's not literally baffling, is it? The idea is that the RP will be available to pitch that same perfect inning tomorrow. Obviously he's not going to pitch 162 innings at that rate, because there will be plenty of games where he's not needed, and ideally you'll get 70-80 such games out of the better non-closer relievers that way. In coordinating personnel, managers and coaches have decided that predictable availability beats riding a hot hand one day and then continually having to improvise. It's understandable in terms of workflow.

More frequent outings, and needing to warm up repeatedly take a much bigger toll on RPs than throwing a 2nd inning, when your total pitch count is <30. You'd get more IP out of your good relievers if you asked them to throw 80-90 IP in 40-45 Gs, rather than 65 IP in 65 games. I would bet that the former is less stressful.

I don't buy the workload management aspect, because that manager will bring that same RP back tomorrow, even if he took 30 pitches to get through one inning.

   52. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5648064)
Agree, but that might be more because of external pressures on how they're evaluated as opposed to personal aversion to having to make those judgements.

Then it's still bad managing, just at the GM level.
   53. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5648070)
Then it's still bad managing, just at the GM level.

I actually think it's mostly this.

because there will be plenty of games where he's not needed,

Like, say, when it's 5-0 and the starter has thrown 60 pitches through six innings?
   54. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5648082)
More frequent outings, and needing to warm up repeatedly take a much bigger toll on RPs than throwing a 2nd inning, when your total pitch count is <30. You'd get more IP out of your good relievers if you asked them to throw 80-90 IP in 40-45 Gs, rather than 65 IP in 65 games. I would bet that the former is less stressful.


That seems wrong to me. What can be lower stress than telling a guy "you've got the 8th inning tonight" and then giving it to him?

And haven't bullpen ERAs trended way down over the last couple decades as managers have honed this approach?
   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5648099)
That seems wrong to me. What can be lower stress than telling a guy "you've got the 8th inning tonight" and then giving it to him?

That's great. But when you ask him to do it 3 times in 5 days, and have him warm up another time, it's stressful.
   56. Eddo Posted: April 04, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5648130)
That's great. But when you ask him to do it 3 times in 5 days, and have him warm up another time, it's stressful.

With current players in their current form, yes. But what you describe doesn't seem beyond the human body's limits, so pitchers could train their bodies to pitch at different intervals.
   57. Eddo Posted: April 04, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5648132)
That seems wrong to me. What can be lower stress than telling a guy "you've got the 8th inning tonight" and then giving it to him?

I'm 99% sure snapper is talking about physical stress on the body, not mental stress of the uncertainty of when you're pitching.
   58. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5648139)
I don't get the "mental stress" of not knowing when you're going to pitch.

How do batters deal with this? I mean, can you imagine the stress of never knowing if you'll come to the plate with men on in a tight situation or not? How do they deal?
   59. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 04, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5648148)
That seems wrong to me. What can be lower stress than telling a guy "you've got the 8th inning tonight" and then giving it to him?


This strikes me as something that can only work in certain situations, like a time when a guy hasn't worked in awhile and you know you're going to want him to get in.

What's the point of telling your best reliever that and then feeling like you need to use him in a game where you're down 7-2?
   60. Dr. Vaux Posted: April 04, 2018 at 05:56 PM (#5648300)
Starting with a reliever is a brilliant idea. It wouldn't impinge on the "starter" getting the "win," because the reliever will have only pitched one inning and the "starter" the next five or six--he'd still get the win if the team won. So player buy-in wouldn't be a problem. That should become standard operating procedure yesterday. With 8-man bullpens, you could just have two guys who start every other day and pitch one inning. If one runs into trouble, you could use another reliever to get out of it--it wouldn't be the end of the world.
   61. Greg Pope Posted: April 04, 2018 at 07:49 PM (#5648332)
With 8-man bullpens, you could just have two guys who start every other day and pitch one inning.

So you burn a reliever every day you do this. Even 10 years ago that would be an issue because there would be days when your starter went 8 and turned it over to a closer. But today? Makes some sense. I'm thinking maybe you don't do it every day. If you have Kershaw or Scherzer then you don't do it that day. That way you're not trying to get 81 IP out of these guys. In theory, your starter actually goes longer since you might be fine letting them face the bottom of the order a third time.

Question is, which relievers do you use? Say you have 8 relievers and a pretty good idea of their ranking. Do you go with relievers 7 and 8? You risk putting yourself in a lot of holes early. But do you want to use 4 and 5? There will still be days when your starter only goes 4 and you'll need to get 4 more innings out of your bullpen.
   62. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:18 PM (#5648351)
Starting with a reliever is a brilliant idea.

I'd worry you'd mess up your SPs warm up routine for little actual gain. It's probably too cute.
   63. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:22 PM (#5648352)
They should be able to handle it. Visiting pitchers already have half an inning of uncertainty before their start, and they can deal with it.
   64. bunyon Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:35 PM (#5648357)
The bigger issue is burning a bench guy in the first inning.
   65. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5648362)
If the first two hitters make outs, you can just let the reliever hit for himself. Or put the starting pitcher in, if he's a better hitter. If there are runners on base, you want to use the bench guy, it's a good spot for it.
   66. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5648367)
If the first two hitters make outs, you can just let the reliever hit for himself. Or put the starting pitcher in, if he's a better hitter. If there are runners on base, you want to use the bench guy, it's a good spot for it.

Why not just bat the RP 9th? You don't want to rely on a PH in lieu of your #3 hitter if you get men on in the 1st
   67. PreservedFish Posted: April 04, 2018 at 09:09 PM (#5648371)
Maybe it doesn't accomplish anything.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2018 September 17: How Brett Kavanaugh explains his baseball ticket debt
(2397 - 12:14am, Sep 24)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogTickets available as Marlins host Reds
(46 - 12:00am, Sep 24)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogFive Tool Players | Articles | Bill James Online
(12 - 11:48pm, Sep 23)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogMariners extend longest postseason drought in major North American sports to 17 years
(5 - 11:29pm, Sep 23)
Last: Zach

NewsblogOT - 2018 NBA Thread (Pre-Season Edition)
(537 - 10:49pm, Sep 23)
Last: TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one

NewsblogTim Anderson's eventful day at the yard ends with shot at Joe West: 'Everybody knows he's terrible'
(8 - 9:47pm, Sep 23)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread (2018-19 season begins!)
(827 - 9:06pm, Sep 23)
Last: Mefisto

NewsblogWeekend OMNICHATTER for September 22-23, 2018
(166 - 8:55pm, Sep 23)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogMadden: Hey, Rob Manfred! The analytic geeks are ruining starting pitching and it's making a joke of the game - NY Daily News
(1 - 8:53pm, Sep 23)
Last: Bug Selig

NewsblogHall of Famer John Smoltz says MLB needs an overhaul and proposes drastic changes
(87 - 6:33pm, Sep 23)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (September 2018)
(384 - 5:15pm, Sep 23)
Last: BDC

Sox TherapyIT’S OVER
(7 - 4:31pm, Sep 23)
Last: Darren

NewsblogWainwright impresses Giants' Bochy
(14 - 4:14pm, Sep 23)
Last: caspian88

NewsblogDodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig burglarized for the fourth time
(10 - 1:36pm, Sep 23)
Last: Bote Man the walk-off king

Gonfalon CubsThe Final Push
(164 - 1:36pm, Sep 23)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

Page rendered in 0.4964 seconds
46 querie(s) executed