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Sunday, November 18, 2018

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies ‘Expecting to Spend Money’ in Pursuit of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

First task of the Phillies negotiators: making sure that Harper and Machado have no knowledge whatsoever about the nature of Phillies fans.

QLE Posted: November 18, 2018 at 06:41 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bryce harper, manny machado, phillies, trade rumors

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   1. Adam Starblind Posted: November 18, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5788964)
I wonder how many mid-tier free agents it will take the Mets in order to compete?
   2. bobm Posted: November 18, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5788986)
Joel Sherman:

But usually just writing those checks does not create a winner. The most successful clubs construct strong cornerstones then add to them when they are ready to win. The Cubs had some key pieces in place (Anthony Rizzo, Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks) when they signed one luxury piece, Jon Lester, after a 73-win 2014.


Then they put even more in place (Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber) to reach the NLCS in 2015 before splurging on Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist. The Padres won 77 games in 2014, had nothing but perhaps Tyson Ross as a building piece yet took on Matt Kemp, Craig Kimbrel, James Shields, Justin Upton and Melvin Upton. The 2015 Padres declined to 74 wins and have the majors’ second-worst record since their splurge.

Are the Phillies more the Padres or Cubs?

In part it matters what you believe about last season. Through Aug. 7, Philadelphia had the NL’s second-best record at 64-49 and led the NL East by 1¹/₂ games. Thereafter they were an NL worst 16-33 and outscored by 90 runs.

Put it together and the Phillies were 80-82, closer to the third-place Mets (77-85) than the first-place Braves (90-72). You could argue both portions of the season were a mirage. That is probably true. But the end result reflected the Phillies’ talent level — perhaps was even a tiny bit better than the talent.

Should that kind of team be in the Machado/Harper and more business? Well, the Phillies’ owner says he is ready to do something a little stupid


https://nypost.com/2018/11/17/how-phillies-offseason-spending-can-avoid-being-a-little-bit-stupid/
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 18, 2018 at 12:15 PM (#5788988)
The Phillies D is putrid. I think they need to fix that before they can realistically contend.

Santana needs to be traded, so Hoskins can play 1B. They need 2 corner OF who can catch the ball, and a bounceback from Herrera.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 18, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5789010)
The Phils have a good rotation which is an excellent start. The position player roster was a complete disaster. Overall they were replacement level by WAR. The best player was Santana at 1.7 WAR. The highest WAA was mid-season pickup Wilson Ramos, followed by late-season pickup Jose Bautista, followed by ... 4 pitchers.

Ideal would be find somebody to take on Santana at full salary, Hoskins to 1B, Harper and Herrera in the corners, maybe AJ Pollock in CF, Machado at 3B, sign one of the mediocre 2Bs, stick somebody who can field at SS, Alfaro at C (hey, he was average), hope everybody stays healthy. That's only about $90 M in new money minus Santana's $20 M.
   5. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 18, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5789014)
the phillies are going to sign machado and harper, then trade rhys hoskins+++++ for mike trout.
machado and harper will 300-350MM, plus opt outs.
trout will get 450MM.

they'll sign a LH starter (gio gonzalez? JA happ? wade miley? jaime garcia? patrick corbin? dallas keuchel?)
they'll sign X relievers, one elite lefty (oliver perez? joakim soria? andrew miller?) and one (or two or three) set up men of varying handedness.


then they'll win 73 games.


during the glory years, the phillies sustained a payroll over 150MM, but they haven't gone over 100MM in the last 5 years. this team has money to burn, and unlike free agents in most years, machado and harper (and trout) are actually young enough, and good enough, that a 10+ year contract may not be a godawful investment.
   6. DFA Posted: November 18, 2018 at 07:45 PM (#5789051)
The owner of the Phillies saying that the team would be a "little stupid" about spending was a notable choice of words, though perhaps he was merely blowing smoke.
   7. Sunday silence Posted: November 18, 2018 at 08:48 PM (#5789060)
For people who follow the Phillies: whats the report card on Kapler I thought he sounded very flakey when reading about him preseason but my co worker says Kapler is pretty good.
   8. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 18, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5789064)
sign one of the mediocre 2B

They already have one of those in Cesar Hernandez. The situation is not as drastic as you think.
   9. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 18, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5789070)
For people who follow the Phillies: whats the report card on Kapler I thought he sounded very flakey when reading about him preseason but my co worker says Kapler is pretty good.
he's a loon.

last year's roster didn't do him any favors since he didn't have a shortstop or a left fielder, almost every position player underachieved, only 1 starter hit over .260 (batting average), literally noone was better than replacement level defensively, and the bullpen blew up a ton of games.

but again, the guy is a ####### loon. i don't think he deserved to be fired based on what happened this season, but i would have been okay if they had chosen to do that since there's never a bad time to get an insane person out of your clubhouse.
   10. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 18, 2018 at 09:30 PM (#5789071)
They already have one of those in Cesar Hernandez. The situation is not as drastic as you think.
or scott kingery. or jp crawford. or odubel herrera.
   11. RMc's Daps of the Dope Artists Posted: November 19, 2018 at 09:12 AM (#5789115)
Phillies ‘Expecting to Spend Money’ in Pursuit of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado

I don't think they would accept beads as compensation, no.
   12. Sunday silence Posted: November 19, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5789126)
Im confused has kapler been fired?
   13. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: November 19, 2018 at 09:54 AM (#5789130)
I don't think they would accept beads as compensation, no.


Produce, though ...
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 19, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5789138)
Im confused has kapler been fired?

I think people are saying he should be.
   15. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: November 19, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5789141)
i'll defer to others but my distant reading of kapler was that he had a very rough start to the season but found his bearings. definitely a weird cat, but that can be a feature v a bug.
   16. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 19, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5789151)

It will also be interesting to see whether Kapler is implicated at all in the Dodgers international scouting issues.
   17. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 19, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5789158)
We haven't heard anything about that for a while. Has anybody?
   18. Walt Davis Posted: November 19, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5789270)
Steamer projections ...

Hoskins 3.0, Santana 2.2, Franco 2.1, Bour about 1.0 in FT play -- so that's one above-average 1B, two average 1B and one guy -- possibly more 1B than a team needs. :-)

Hernandez 2.2
Herrera 1.8
Crawford 1.3
Alfaro 0.8
Williams, Kingery, Knapp, Quinn 0.3 - 0.5

So it's true, in addition to a solid 1B (and 3 more) and one decent OF, they also have a decent 2B. My sincerest apologies.

Also flying under the radar was Franco's solid 2nd half with the bat (about 870 OPS). He somehow projects to -1 on defense.

For some reason, everybody below that is projected to just 1 PA ... for the next 3 pages, they can't all be pitchers. (Actually Mitch Walding sneaks in for 52 PA).

Some of the worst defensive projections I can recall -- Hoskins -15 (presumably LF), Santana -11, Williams -13. Maybe Williams is another 1B.
   19. Master of the Horse Posted: November 19, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5789272)
Wasn't the Philly d bad by choice and that if guys were rearranged it would improve organically?
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 19, 2018 at 04:47 PM (#5789324)
Wasn't the Philly d bad by choice and that if guys were rearranged it would improve organically?

Not really. They didn't have a single OF that put up a positive UZR in more than 100 innings. By UZR/DRS Herrera -12.5/-11, Williams -16/-17, Hoskins -14/-24, Altherr -2.5/0, Quinn -7.5/0. There's no way to rearrange that.

They need two new OF, and a bounce back from Herrera.
   21. DCA Posted: November 19, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5789339)
Machado makes a ton of sense for the Phillies. If they get him, I'd play him at SS to start, with Hoskins-Hernandez-Franco at 1B-2B-3B around him. Crawford nor Kingery are the team's best "prospects" (non-established young guys) and neither has really mastered AAA. They play every day in Allentown until one shows he is ready for MLB and/or one of Hernandez/Franco needs benching.

I don't think Santana is worth his contract, so they'll need to attach someone (or $$) to move him. Maybe Nick Williams? He's got prospect pedigree, a solid bat, and maybe his glove will come around in an organization that knows how to play defense.

That leaves Herrera as the only returning starting OF. Altherr and Quinn are good 4th/5th OF. All three of them could play defense in 2017, and presumably could again. I don't see Harper landing in Philly, but they could probably have Pollock and Brantley at the same annual cost as Harper.

I don't like the odds on either Knapp or Alfaro being above replacement level, so they ought to bring back Ramos or a second-tier FA catcher (Suzuki or Maldonado depending on whether you prefer a bat or a glove) who can be pushed aside easily if Knapp/Alfaro can lay claim to a larger role than backup or AAA stash.
   22. Padraic Posted: November 19, 2018 at 07:07 PM (#5789371)
A few things to clear up (as one of the rare BTFers who watches the Phils regularly).

On defense, it's *mostly* positioning. Herrera and Altherr have been elite-level defenders in the past, and Crawford should be very good. Hernandez and ALfaro are decent, so it's really only one OF spot and 3B where there are real issues. Obviously if they get MM to play 3rd, that helps too. Anecdotally, they seem to just be bad at the shift. But only Hoskins/Williams/Franco are terrible defenders, and if MM signs probably only one of them is playing every day.


On Kapler, he was a disaster at first, is definitely a weird dude, and probably was a bit over matched. He does seem incredibly willing to change, however, which was not true of Sandberg (a true true fraud) and McKannin (a nice guy, but probably not analytically-inclined). I think Wathan would make an improvement, but a lot of it has to do with how 20-somethings respond to his kind of oddity, and I'm too far removed from the millenials to claim one way or the other.

   23. Michael Paulionis Posted: November 20, 2018 at 12:43 AM (#5789473)
For some reason I always get Kapler and Erstad mixed up. Probably because they were both drafted in 1995 and played a fair amount of Center. Erstad would end up being much better career in the Majors, but Erstad ended up being a bit of a disappointment considering his pedigree.

Erstad was drafted #1 overall. Meanwhile, Kapler was a 57th round draft pick. However, Kapler had such a strong 1998 (at age 22) in AA while with Detroit that he was named Minor League POY and he shot up to #34 in Baseball America's 1999 rankings.

Kapler also was the centerpiece of the huge deal for Juan Gone that was a disaster for Detroit.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 20, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5789526)
On defense, it's *mostly* positioning. Herrera and Altherr have been elite-level defenders in the pas

I think "mostly" is an oversell. Hoskins is a 1B stuck in LF, you would expect him to be terrible.

Herrera was very good (not elite) once in his career (2015 +10/+9 by DRS/UZR). Since then he's be moderately above average (averaging about +5 before 2018). With aging he should probably be around average to +3, so yes, I'd expect a bounceback, but he's very unlikely to ever be elite, or even very good.

Altherr couldn't hit enough to stay in the lineup, so I don't know how much help he'll be. Williams has been putrid in both his MLB seasons (-15.4 UZR/150). Maybe he can improve to just poor with better positioning.

They still need another OF. If they run out Hoskins/Herrera/Williams again, the D will be terrible.

   25. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: November 20, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5789549)
My impression was that this whole season was devoted to playing players out of position so they could learn their new positions, which they didn't manage to learn. Not just Hoskins but Kingery as well. Cesar Hernandez is one of the most underrated players around so he has been a rock at 2B. Move Kingery to SS! Apparently doesn't work.

Wasn't the Philly d bad by choice and that if guys were rearranged it would improve organically?

It was certainly bad by choice on some occasions.
   26. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: November 20, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5789561)
They still need another OF. If they run out Hoskins/Herrera/Williams again, the D will be terrible.

No love for Roman Quinn?
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 20, 2018 at 11:32 AM (#5789614)
No love for Roman Quinn?

His miLB track record doesn't scream "big leaguer" to me. Very little power, relying on a .360 BABIP to be above average but not great.

Steamer projects him for an 84 wRC+.

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