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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

MLB Trade Rumors: Projected 2018 Arbitration Salaries

Some large sums (service time estimate in parentheses):

Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
.  .  .
Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM

Details on methodology & estimate info on all players available at link.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 10, 2017 at 02:19 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: baseball is awash in money, finances, money, salary arbitration

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: October 10, 2017 at 10:24 PM (#5549418)
Let’s play.....TENDER OR NONTENDER!!!

A’s - Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
Braves - Matt Adams (5.033) – $4.6MM
Cards - Trevor Rosenthal (5.058) – $7.9MM
Marlins - Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
Mets - Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
Mets - A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
Phillies - Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
Rays - Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
Reds - Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
Royals - Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
Twins - Kyle Gibson (4.051) – $5.3MM
   2. PreservedFish Posted: October 10, 2017 at 10:37 PM (#5549421)
I feel like almost all of those are tenders.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 10, 2017 at 10:55 PM (#5549428)
I feel like almost all of those are tenders.

The pre-arbitration years are a long probationary period. Most of the players who aren't up to the job should wash out before hitting arbitration, absent injury changing their value. Teams are still paying less than fair market value, especially in the early arbitration years, so most eligible players should be arbitration-worthy.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: October 10, 2017 at 10:59 PM (#5549430)
I don't see a lot of "must keeps" there
   5. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 11, 2017 at 06:13 AM (#5549483)
I feel like almost all of those are tenders


Can we pay them in Good Boy Points?

   6. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: October 11, 2017 at 06:49 AM (#5549489)
The complicating factor with Trevor Rosenthal is that he had TJ surgery in August and will miss most if not all of the 2018 season. The Cards may well try to get him to agree to a multi-year extension with a built-in discount for his injury, but failing that I'd guess they'd non-tender him rather than pay him almost $8 million not to pitch in 2018. When Greg Holland blew out his elbow at the end of 2015 the Royals non-tendered him and he spent his rehab year unsigned.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: October 11, 2017 at 08:04 AM (#5549501)
Can we pay them in Good Boy Points?


I've got a friend that recently took a job as quality control officer for a chicken tenders company. Memes incoming.
   8. Rusty Priske Posted: October 11, 2017 at 09:58 AM (#5549623)
Post #2 vs Post #4.... FIGHT!
   9. TDF, FCL Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:00 AM (#5549624)
Reds - Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
2.4 WAR (either version) in just under 500 PA. None of his numbers seem way out of whack compared to previous years except he hit HR twice as often on fly balls - BABIP, hard hit %, pull%, FB% all up a bit but none of those screams "regression coming" (but I guarantee his HR/FB won't be higher than Votto next year). Plus, he'll play every day for the Reds (especially if Cozart is cut loose).

Still, $6.1M for Scooter Gennett? That just seems like crazy talk.
   10. Rally Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:22 AM (#5549663)
Still, $6.1M for Scooter Gennett? That just seems like crazy talk.


That's crazy cheap for a guy who can hit 4 homers in a single game.
   11. Rally Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:26 AM (#5549668)
The complicating factor with Trevor Rosenthal is that he had TJ surgery in August and will miss most if not all of the 2018 season. The Cards may well try to get him to agree to a multi-year extension with a built-in discount for his injury, but failing that I'd guess they'd non-tender him rather than pay him almost $8 million not to pitch in 2018. When Greg Holland blew out his elbow at the end of 2015 the Royals non-tendered him and he spent his rehab year unsigned.


Either a non-tender or multi-year extension seem like the logical possibilities. Rosenthal had 4.058 years of service coming in, so over 5 now and will get his 6th year of service while on the DL. Why pay 8 million to a guy who won't pitch next year when he'll just be a free agent after the season anyway?
   12. DL from MN Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:38 AM (#5549688)
AJ Ramos seems pretty replaceable at $9M
   13. flournoy Posted: October 11, 2017 at 10:51 AM (#5549707)
For a little over a year and a half of control over Matt Adams, the Braves only had to give up an A-ball first baseman who can't really hit. (In other words, nothing.) I don't think Adams has really done anything to materially increase his trade value in that time, and now he has less team control left and will cost more money. Meanwhile, the Braves have nowhere to play him unless Freddie Freeman gets hurt. Looks like a non-tender to me.
   14. TDF, FCL Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:09 AM (#5549745)
That's crazy cheap for a guy who can hit 4 homers in a single game.
He also set the Reds' record for grand slams in a season, and is only the 2nd player with 4 HR in a game and 4 GS in that same season. You might have heard of the other guy.

He's also only the 2nd player to hit his 20th HR of the season in a game in which he pitched. Again, you might've heard of the other guy.

Maybe I underestimated him.
   15. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 11, 2017 at 12:21 PM (#5549847)
Either a non-tender or multi-year extension seem like the logical possibilities. Rosenthal had 4.058 years of service coming in, so over 5 now and will get his 6th year of service while on the DL. Why pay 8 million to a guy who won't pitch next year when he'll just be a free agent after the season anyway?


If Rosenthal gets non-tendered, and no one picks him up, does he accrue service time?
   16. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: October 11, 2017 at 01:35 PM (#5549948)
If Rosenthal gets non-tendered, and no one picks him up, does he accrue service time?

According to BB-Ref, the answer is "no" - that's what happened to Greg Holland after the 2015 season, and BB-Ref shows Holland as not accruing any service time when he sat out the 2016 season to rehab from TJ surgery (his service time is listed as 4.028 at the end of 2015 and 5.028 at the end of 2017).
   17. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:45 PM (#5550142)
4.9MM for Shelby Miller (4.166 years) is another fun one.
   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:53 PM (#5550159)
If Rosenthal gets non-tendered, and no one picks him up, does he accrue service time?

According to BB-Ref, the answer is "no" - that's what happened to Greg Holland after the 2015 season, and BB-Ref shows Holland as not accruing any service time when he sat out the 2016 season to rehab from TJ surgery (his service time is listed as 4.028 at the end of 2015 and 5.028 at the end of 2017).


OK, but he would still be a free agent in 2019, as Holland was last year, so moot point I guess.
   19. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 11, 2017 at 04:02 PM (#5550179)
Miller is getting tendered I think. I believe Hector Rondon is not.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: October 11, 2017 at 07:16 PM (#5550464)
Given the injury, I wouldn't expect Rosenthal to actually get a raise ... not that $6.5 M really changes the calculation.

Davis -- easily yes
Adams -- Braves need some payroll space and he's redundant to trade or non-tender
Dietrich -- tender
Harvey -- Mets suggested yes, kinda have to
Ramos -- I guess yes or trade if the Mets have a better place to spend it
Galvis -- Phils have tons of money, seems popular, yes
Hechavarria -- yes
Herrera -- trade if going into rebuild mode
Gibson -- easily yes
Miller -- easy yes unless the prognosis is terrible

Gennett -- I'd really have to have seen him on a regular basis. If I was convinced the improvement is at least partially for real, then I'd try to sign him to a 4-year deal cheapish (say 6/8/10/10 plus an option). If I wasn't convinced, I still tender at that price.

As everybody knows, these prices are all still crazy cheap. Even Davis is paid at best for 1.5 WAR on the FA market. Even if you have a better and cheaper in-house option, you're not going to get more value elsewhere for $5-8 M than most of these guys will provide. Injuries or strapped for cash and nowhere to play him (Adams) are about the only times that you should seriously consider non-tendering a player. Just keep coming back to the fact that even if this guy is "overpaid", you're not going to have anything better to spend $5-8 M on.

I mean Kyle Gibson isn't a good pitcher but he's an excellent bet to give you 150-180 innings of non-suckitude by 5th starter standards. The Cubs spent $3.5 M on Brett Anderson who has reached 180 innings once in the previous 7 seasons (and didn't again).
   21. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 11, 2017 at 07:35 PM (#5550529)
Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM

I think the Nationals will offer arbitration, and perhaps even erect a statue of him.

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