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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

MLB trade targets: Top 20 players who could move by the deadline

13. Adam Jones, Orioles, center fielder: It was the trade that sent the Mariners spiraling, and in the 10 years since Jones and four others including pitcher Chris Tillman was traded to Baltimore, the Mariners still have not quite recovered. The Orioles love Jones, who has become the face of their franchise, but he’s a free agent in November.

Prediction: The Mariners, who lost All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano to a PED suspension and center fielder Dee Gordon to a broken toe, finally right a wrong and brings back Jones.

A lot of Orioles are on the list.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 30, 2018 at 01:22 PM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: adam jones, avisail garcia, brad brach, brad hand, chris archer, cole hamels, francisco liriano, j.a. happ, jed lowrie, jonathan lucroy, josh donaldson, kelvin herrera, manny machado, matt harvey, mike moustakas, patrick corbin, scooter gennett, starlin castro, trade talk, tyson ross, zach britton

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Rally Posted: May 30, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5682389)
I wonder if the Orioles and Jones are working on a new deal. Doesn't make a lot of baseball sense given his age (32) and the team's need to rebuild. But Adam just bought a new house in the area. Not just any house either, Cal Ripken's old place. Maybe there's mutual interest in letting him play out his career through the rebuild, like Votto in Cincinnati.

The house was on the market for a long time despite my interest in it. I just couldn't get the financing to work out.

In other words, Powerball and Mega Millions failed me.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5682497)
The guy on that list who I think is going to be a great get is J.A. Happ. He's not a big name, and at 36 probably won't command a huge price, but he has been quietly excellent the last 3 years, and is sporting a career high K-rate this season.

I'd love to see the Yankees add him.
   3. Khrushin it bro Posted: May 30, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5682498)
17. Jonathan Lucroy, Oakland A’s, catcher:While the A’s may be in the race now, the likelihood of them sticking around by July are as slim as landing Bryce Harper next winter.


Ya well... that's just like, your opinion man...
   4. ckash Posted: May 30, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5682504)
Don't waste your time reading this. I've been dubious of Bob Nightengale for a while and this piece just proves he's clueless.

He has the Indians acquiring Scooter Gennett to win the AL EAST.

He has the Mariners acquiring Adam Jones, J.A. Happ and Patrick Corbin, but doesn't address what they have to deal since the system is pretty much empty aside from Kyle Lewis.

The Cubs acquiring Chris Archer and Tyson Ross. Is their rotation that bad?

Any random blogger could have written this piece and put more thought into it.

   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5682515)
He has the Mariners acquiring Adam Jones, J.A. Happ and Patrick Corbin, but doesn't address what they have to deal since the system is pretty much empty aside from Kyle Lewis.


Yeah, they don't have the prospects to do that. Lewis is their best, and he's only a B (per Sickels). Most good systems have B guys down to 8 or 9.
   6. bookbook Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5682526)
How much exactly are Adam Jones, J.A. Happ, and Patrick Corbin worth? No one’s trading multiple top prospects for them at their current salaries, especially given the super team and has been nature of the league these days.
   7. Blastin Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5682530)
I'd love to see the Yankees add him.


Yeah me too, but would the Jays deal with us?
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5682535)

Yeah me too, but would the Jays deal with us?


Maybe not for a big star, like Donaldson. But Happ shouldn't be a huge issue to the fanbase.

If they're out of it, I think they take the best offer.
   9. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5682541)

He has the Indians acquiring Scooter Gennett to win the AL EAST.


I don't have an opinion on Nightengale but I don't think that's what he said.

Prediction: It will take plenty of firepower to win the AL East, has patiently been waiting for second baseman Jason Kipnis to bounce back, hitting just .190 with a paltry .591 OPS, but Gennett could be the quick solution to plenty of their woes.


That looks like something got botched in the editing because that's not a complete sentence in anyway that Mrs. Blackburn would have allowed me to have in 7th grade. It looks like he was going to send Scooter to one of the East's beasts but then decided on Cleveland but his cut and paste was all ###### up either by him or by an editor. It's been like that all day which seems odd. You'd think someone somewhere would have said "hey Bob, #17 makes no ####### sense."
   10. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5682542)
Yeah me too, but would the Jays deal with us?


As a Jays fan, I don't care if the Yankees pick up Happ for a playoff rental. We cheered on Encarnacion with the Indians after Cleveland knocked the Jays out of the playoffs the year before that.

When the Jays decide to dump players, we all expect Donaldson, Happ, Smoak, and maybe Solarte to be dealt for prospects at some point.
With Vlad Jr, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Dan Jansen killing the ball in the minors, space is going to have to open up for them at some point.
   11. Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5682548)
With Vlad Jr, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio

The sons of HOFers/All-Stars/Dwight Smith is going to be an intriguing team

Machado or someone high profile to the Phils would be interesting since they're expected to be active in the FA market
   12. DL from MN Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5682550)
Twins could be sellers and they have several impending free agents in either 2019 (Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Fernando Rodney, Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, Zach Duke) or 2020 (Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed). Mauer isn't going anywhere but the rest could make for a decent white flag sale for the 22-27 Twins. Rodney and Morrison have cheap options / buyouts for 2019.
   13. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5682567)

I wonder if the Orioles and Jones are working on a new deal. Doesn't make a lot of baseball sense given his age (32) and the team's need to rebuild. But Adam just bought a new house in the area. Not just any house either, Cal Ripken's old place. Maybe there's mutual interest in letting him play out his career through the rebuild, like Votto in Cincinnati.
He expressly said that he bought the place as an investment property.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: May 30, 2018 at 04:59 PM (#5682571)
2. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays, third baseman:

......

Prediction: The Cardinals love his bat, and even more, his attitude. The perfect fit now, and the perfect destination for the future.


It's true the Cardinals have coveted Donaldson for some time now, (and Machado) but the teams offensive woes is headed by players having off years offensively, Josh Donaldson is no different. The guy has been a 140+ ops+ hitter for the previous three seasons and is putting up a 105 right now.

Carpenter is up to 107 now, Gyorko is at 127, Jose Martinez is at 129 so Donaldson would be replacing Wong until Dejong gets back.(mind you Wong is now more or less being platooned with Munoz who is having a nice rookie campaign so far) No doubt Donaldson's true level is higher than the 105 he's sporting right now, but do you want to be the team to acquire the guy and have him perform more or less the same way he has this year to date? I don't really see the Cardinals adding any more bats to the lineup, unless there is a doable deal for Machado(and I don't think that there will be one)... their focus is going to be on more and more relievers. Some of which will probably come from internal options. (When Wainwright comes back, he'll probably be asked to work from the pen, and might get a start or two in September---and when Martinez comes back Weaver/Flaherty or Reyes---if he's not injured---all have a chance of being moved from the rotation to the pen.)


edit: note not that Donaldson would play second, Carpenter would slot to second, Gyorko short etc... basically the Cardinals have Gyorko who can play 2b/3b/ss well. Carpenter who can play 1b/2b/3b competently. Dejong who can play ss/2b, Munoz 2b/ss/3b allowing for a rotation of players depending on who's playing well, handedness etc... (Wong and Martinez are the only two limited to one position)
   15. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 30, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5682572)
That looks like something got botched in the editing because that's not a complete sentence in anyway that Mrs. Blackburn would have allowed me to have in 7th grade. It looks like he was going to send Scooter to one of the East's beasts but then decided on Cleveland but his cut and paste was all ###### up either by him or by an editor. It's been like that all day which seems odd. You'd think someone somewhere would have said "hey Bob, #17 makes no ####### sense."

No, that's his usual MO.

The Cubs acquiring Chris Archer and Tyson Ross. Is their rotation that bad?

It has its problems, but they're also kinda committed to the 5 guys they have now. So unless there's a long term injury that Bob knows about that hasn't happened yet, I don't think either of those are happening. Everyone's been wanting to trade for Archer forever, but surely a package "led by Victor Caratini" isn't going to cut it (his words).
   16. RJ in TO Posted: May 30, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5682573)
Yeah me too, but would the Jays deal with us?
As long as the Jays get a decent prospect or two back, no one in Toronto is going to give a damn if the Yankees trade for Happ.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: May 30, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5682580)
Odorizzi seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors (5.05 FIP, 3.34 ERA) so if the Twins can find a taker, they should probably make that move ASAP.

Nightengale's not the sharpest tool in the shed so he may not understand this but, in his defense, saying the Cubs are the most likely team to trade for player A and the most likely team to trade for player B does not necessarily mean that Nightengale expects them to trade for both players. But yes, at the moment, the Cubs rotation is a shambles. Just as Darvish was maybe coming right, he got hurt, bringing Montgomery into the rotation. Chatwood has been walking the ballpark, Quintana can't seem to make it past the 4th inning. There's not really any depth at AAA. Now, all 3 of those guys are on long-term contracts so the Cubs clearly wouldn't be looking for long-term replacements but, especially if Darvish's injury is serious, they wouldn't mind bolstering the rotation for 2018 (at the right price in terms of talent -- we ain't got much -- and keeping below threshold this year).
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5682582)
As long as the Jays get a decent prospect or two back, no one in Toronto is going to give a damn if the Yankees trade for Happ.

Yeah, that's what I thought. And the Yankees have a lot of depth, so they can give a B-prospect who's like #7 or 8 in their system, where for Seattle, that would be a top-10 guy. Someone like Thairo Estrada who's blocked at 2B/SS. They also have oodles of C+ guys for throw-in purposes.

Given their 40-man roster issues, this kind of trade makes a ton of sense for the Yankees.
   19. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 30, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5682584)
The Cubs acquiring Chris Archer and Tyson Ross. Is their rotation that bad?
At least he's not proposing a Happ-for-Happ.
   20. geonose Posted: May 30, 2018 at 05:26 PM (#5682588)
Everyone's been wanting to trade for Archer forever

True, but what is the attraction any more? He hasn't been good since 2015. I get that he's cheap, durable, and under control for a while, and those are all pluses, but I keep seeing him billed as an ace and he just isn't.
   21. stevegamer Posted: May 30, 2018 at 06:02 PM (#5682608)
Sounds weird to say this, but there's a chance the Phillies make a move for Happ or Hamels. Would be nice to have hamels actually be on the next good Phillies team, and perhaps cause some heads to explode.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5682609)
True, but what is the attraction any more? He hasn't been good since 2015. I get that he's cheap, durable, and under control for a while, and those are all pluses, but I keep seeing him billed as an ace and he just isn't.

You're not kidding. Since 2016 started, 473 IP at a 99 ERA+.
   23. Brian C Posted: May 30, 2018 at 06:06 PM (#5682611)
Nightengale's not the sharpest tool in the shed

I've mentioned this innumerable times over the years, but it never gets old pointing out that Nightengale was the guy who reported that the Cubs were committed to keeping Jim Hendry ... after Hendry had already been fired.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 30, 2018 at 06:11 PM (#5682614)
I've mentioned this innumerable times over the years, but it never gets old pointing out that Nightengale was the guy who reported that the Cubs were committed to keeping Jim Hendry ... after Hendry had already been fired.

I assume the column was already written, and he was too lazy to do the re-write?
   25. Brian C Posted: May 30, 2018 at 06:37 PM (#5682625)
I assume the column was already written, and he was too lazy to do the re-write?

No, that's not what happened. If you don't know the whole story of Hendry's firing, here it is. Basically, the Cubs informed Hendry that he would not be retained on July 22, but kept him on to finish out the draft cycle. It was made public on August 19. On August 13, Nightengale tweeted that Hendry's job was safe, causing no small amount of consternation among Cubs fans at the time.

Honestly, I think the most likely explanation is that most of the "rumors" tossed out by sports reporters are just made up junk. Notice how Bob qualified it with "barring a change of thinking", so that he had a way to weasel out if the opposite happened. In his wildest dreams I doubt he'd have imagined that Hendry had already been canned and the Cubs weren't telling anyone.

Regardless of the actual explanation, though, I don't know that Nightengale ever addressed it. And besides just being funny, it remains a serious mark against his credibility.
   26. Cris E Posted: May 30, 2018 at 07:34 PM (#5682647)
Twins could be sellers and they have several impending free agents in either 2019 (Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Fernando Rodney, Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, Zach Duke) or 2020 (Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed). Mauer isn't going anywhere but the rest could make for a decent white flag sale for the 22-27 Twins. Rodney and Morrison have cheap options / buyouts for 2019.

I dunno, they really think this is their time. I think Falvey and Levine are far more likely to build around their core and aim for 18-22 than set their sights further out. The one and two year guys you mention are not that core so they may be gone, but 22-27 is not a focus.
   27. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: May 30, 2018 at 08:44 PM (#5682682)
But Adam just bought a new house in the area. Not just any house either, Cal Ripken's old place. Maybe there's mutual interest in letting him play out his career through the rebuild, like Votto in Cincinnati.


He expressly said that he bought the place as an investment property.


Jones swooped in to prevent the ignominy of Kevin Costner nabbing the property.
   28. Lindor Truffles Posted: May 30, 2018 at 09:26 PM (#5682708)
What’s with Archer being the prodigal son in Chicago? He was an Indian draftee and spent two seasons in each organization before being shipped to TB.

Cleveland hasn’t traded with KC since 04, I don’t see them getting Herrera and Moustakas.
   29. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 31, 2018 at 07:55 AM (#5682868)
So according to Nightengale, the Yankees won't go after a prime lefthanded starting pitcher (Hamels) when reliable starting pitching is their one big weakness, but they'll be interested in a second baseman (Lowrie) when they've already got a 21 year old potential All-Star at that position. Yeah, that makes all kinds of sense.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 31, 2018 at 09:01 AM (#5682883)
So according to Nightengale, the Yankees won't go after a prime lefthanded starting pitcher (Hamels) when reliable starting pitching is their one big weakness,

Hard pass on Hamels. His FIP is 5.25.

That's worse than Gray.

He hasn't been a "prime" pitcher for two years.
   31. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 31, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5682893)
Sounds weird to say this, but there's a chance the Phillies make a move for Happ or Hamels. Would be nice to have hamels actually be on the next good Phillies team, and perhaps cause some heads to explode.


The Phillies have had a total of 25.1 innings pitched by lefthanders this year, so yeah, maybe they would benefit from one of those two. Although starting pitching has been the last of their worries.
   32. DL from MN Posted: May 31, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5682910)
22-27 is not a focus.


No, it was their record. Now they're 22-29 after two more losses. If they're still 7 games under .500 in a month then it isn't their time.
   33. rconn23 Posted: May 31, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5683036)
Heyman has a column on trades that should happen where he says the Yankees should trade Chance Adams and Thairo Estrada for Hamels. I'm not the biggest Hamels fan, but he's better than Gray, who is straight up broken. That being said, no way Texas gets that little in return for Hamels. Adams prospect value has taken a hit.

https://frsbaseball.com/mlb/heyman-a-dozen-trades-that-have-not-happened-but-should/
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 31, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5683047)
Heyman has a column on trades that should happen where he says the Yankees should trade Chance Adams and Thairo Estrada for Hamels. I'm not the biggest Hamels fan, but he's better than Gray, who is straight up broken. That being said, no way Texas gets that little in return for Hamels. Adams prospect value has taken a hit.

I wouldn't give up one of those guys for Hamels, much less 2. I think you could get Happ for one of them, plus filler, and Happ is much better than Hamels.

By the more predictive stats, Hamels is worse than Gray. 2018 5.25 FIP, 2017 4.62 FIP, vs. Gray's 4.79 and 3.90. Hamels ERA only looks shiny b/c of a .257 BABIP and an 82% strand rate. He's giving up 1.8 HR/9. That will not play in DNYS.

   35. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 31, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5683048)
What’s with Archer being the prodigal son in Chicago? He was an Indian draftee and spent two seasons in each organization before being shipped to TB.

Not enough Tribe media beating that drum. That, and he was much more of a prospect when he left Chicago's org than Cleve's.
   36. rconn23 Posted: May 31, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5683055)
"I wouldn't give up one of those guys for Hamels, much less 2. I think you could get Happ for one of them, plus filler, and Happ is much better than Hamels.

The only difference maker for the Yankees that could potentially be available is Corbin, and that division is so mediocre that Arizona will be in the race at the deadline. I'm not sold on Hamels, but predictive stats aside, I'm still taking him as a competent pitcher over Gray. Estrada is a decent player, but I never thought Adams was going to be anything more than back end filler or a bullpen guy. So I'm fine parting with them.

I think Toronto won't trade Happ, who I prefer over Hamels as well, and if they do it will be cost prohibitive for the Yankees.

I just think Gray is done and there's no hope of coming back. He's in "the stuff is there, the results were not" denial phase, which is absurd. He left fat pitch after fat pitch over the plate in his last start and his control was terrible.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 31, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5683061)
I just think Gray is done and there's no hope of coming back

That's just silly. His velocity is fine. It's his control that has been killing him.

He left fat pitch after fat pitch over the plate in his last start and his control was terrible.

Pitchers struggle with mechanics all the time. To think it's unfixable is really strange.

In any case, Hamels has pitched worse. How is he a solution?

I think Toronto won't trade Happ, who I prefer over Hamels as well, and if they do it will be cost prohibitive for the Yankees.


Why? Happ is a FA. If they're out of it, they'll trade him.

Mid-level rentals go for a lot less than 2 B prospects. Darvish only brought back a B (Calhoun) and 2 Cs.
   38. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: May 31, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5683070)
If I am the Mets, I at least take calls on deGrom if they continue to plummet in the standings.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 31, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5683079)
If I am the Mets, I at least take calls on deGrom if they continue to plummet in the standings.

But, you almost never get value for guys that good. He's still controlled for two more seasons. No need to deal him.
   40. zack Posted: May 31, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5683103)
If I am the Mets, I at least take calls on deGrom if they continue to plummet in the standings.

HIIISSSSSSSSSSSSS

The Mets should be trying to figure out how to sign Machado. They might not be going anywhere this year but they absolutely should not be blowing anything up.
   41. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 31, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5683110)
The Mets should be trying to figure out how to sign Machado.


I'd try offering him the most money.
   42. zack Posted: May 31, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5683116)
I'd try offering him the most money.

Honest question, do you think he makes it to free agency?
   43. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5683148)
The Mets should be trying to figure out how to sign Machado. They might not be going anywhere this year but they absolutely should not be blowing anything up.

The Mets are a mid-payroll team and they are not going to be the highest bidder on a premium talent like Machado. They should be in on a guy like Machado but they won't be.

deGrom is awesome and my favorite Met but he's a pitcher which means health is always a question mark. He's going to start being expensive and I am not confident in the Mets' ability to build a contending team in the next two seasons especially considering how good the Braves and Phillies look right now.
   44. RJ in TO Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5683155)
I think Toronto won't trade Happ, who I prefer over Hamels as well, and if they do it will be cost prohibitive for the Yankees.


Toronto will absolutely trade Happ, especially if they continue to be non-contenders this season.
   45. Blastin Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5683162)
Happ won't be cost prohibitive at all. He just might be "ownership doesn't want to trade with NYY." When was the last midseason TOR-NYY trade?
   46. Stormy JE Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5683186)
If I am the Mets, I at least take calls on deGrom if they continue to plummet in the standings.
deGrom is awesome and my favorite Met but he's a pitcher which means health is always a question mark. He's going to start being expensive and I am not confident in the Mets' ability to build a contending team in the next two seasons especially considering how good the Braves and Phillies look right now.
This is borderline crazy talk. The Phils and Braves are playing exciting ball right now but it's far from certain that in the next few years both of these teams will be powerhouses -- and quite possible neither will be. And since his TJ surgery while in the minors, deGrom has been just about injury-free; this is his first-ever trip to the disabled list. He's been as close to a sure thing as pitchers get nowadays.
   47. rconn23 Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5683192)
I think Toronto won't trade Happ, who I prefer over Hamels as well, and if they do it will be cost prohibitive for the Yankees.

I should have said they will trade him, but not to the Yankees. I think they will look to trade him out of the division.
   48. zack Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5683203)
this is his first-ever trip to the disabled list

Thanks for the heart attack.

The Phils and Braves are playing exciting ball right

Hopefully the Braves fountain of youth (no Joses) will run dry soon. Nick Markakis has a 144 OPS+, Kurt Suzuki as Mike Piazza Jr., Tyler ####### Flowers with a .900 OPS. At least Ryan Flaherty no longer has a .400 OBP.
   49. RJ in TO Posted: May 31, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5683226)
I should have said they will trade him, but not to the Yankees. I think they will look to trade him out of the division.
They would absolutely trade him to the Yankees. He's a FA at the end of the year, and it seems unlikely he would be resigned. Even if the Yankees were to resign him, I doubt the Jays would be all that concerned about the Yankees signing a 36 year old pitcher to a multi-year deal.

Any trade of Happ is going to be based only on the quality of prospects returned, rather than his destination.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 31, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5683257)
Any trade of Happ is going to be based only on the quality of prospects returned, rather than his destination.

That's what I would have thought. And the return is very likely to be a B type prospect, who's at the bottom of the top-100, and a couple of Cs with upside.

The Yankees have a lot of prospect depth, so are well positioned to make this kind of trade, i.e. there are enough possibilities that Toronto is likely to find someone they like, that NY would part with.
   51. rconn23 Posted: May 31, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5683326)
Edit: Wrong thread.
   52. Walt Davis Posted: May 31, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5683506)
they'll be interested in a second baseman (Lowrie) when they've already got a 21 year old potential All-Star at that position

His meaning isn't 100% clear but he seems to be suggesting the Red Sox and Yanks will be interested in him as a super-sub. It's still questionable whether the Yanks have any use for him in that role either -- Andujar is hitting, Torreyes and Drury are both in the minors, Bird might push Walker to the bench, etc. So it still looks pretty silly but I don't think he's suggesting they replace Torres.

But, you almost never get value for guys that good. He's still controlled for two more seasons. No need to deal him.

Maybe. The extra years of control makes him quite attractive, more Verlander or Samardzija than a rental. The Samardzija trade worked out great for the Cubs, Verlander it's too soon to tell (it's nearly certain the Tigers will lose that trade on WAR terms but add their money savings and that the 2018-19 Tigers weren't likely gonna win with Verlander and it may work out well for them ... it all depends on Perez who's having a solid season). In deGrom's case, he's cheap so the Mets wouldn't have to eat money to get prospects back. But it's long past time for the Mets to stop pretending they can't afford to compete with the big boys.

Honest question, do you think he [Machado] makes it to free agency?

Alternative 1: O's offer him something like 12/$450. Probability: about as close to zero as you can get.
Alternative 2: O's trade him and new team offers him something like 12/$400+. Probability: let's go 10%

Even if he's traded to a huge market team, he'll only need to survive another 2-3 months to make it to FA. Therefore I think you'd have to make an offer that is clearly as good as he can hope for -- or as good minus the small risk of a major injury in the last 2-3 months. 12/$400 is probably a bit extravagant but he must be looking at at least 8/$250 to 10/$300.
   53. Walt Davis Posted: June 01, 2018 at 06:28 PM (#5684285)
That's what I would have thought. And the return is very likely to be a B type prospect, who's at the bottom of the top-100, and a couple of Cs with upside.

The Yankees have a lot of prospect depth, so are well positioned to make this kind of trade, i.e. there are enough possibilities that Toronto is likely to find someone they like, that NY would part with.


Obviously depth helps but nearly every team has a B and a couple of Cs with upside. And even if they're a shallow system, they'll probably have a different B and a couple of new Cs with upside next year. That is, the problem is that every team can offer this type of package for Happ and there's no particular reason for the Jays to prefer the Yanks' offer. The Yanks's depth advantage is if they are willing to offer 2 Bs and C -- although still something most teams can match without much consequence.

A team's system would have to be truly moribund for the loss of a B and 2 Cs or even 2 Bs and a C to have a significantly detrimental impact on the quality of the remaining system ... and it would still (usually) have a trivial effect on the quality of the future MLB team so any team in the hunt shouldn't let that deter them from making what they consider a "fair" deal.
   54. Cris E Posted: June 03, 2018 at 06:53 PM (#5685080)
No, it was their record. Now they're 22-29 after two more losses.

Well *that* makes a lot more sense. I am pretty much on board with that.
   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 04, 2018 at 09:19 AM (#5685337)
Obviously depth helps but nearly every team has a B and a couple of Cs with upside. And even if they're a shallow system, they'll probably have a different B and a couple of new Cs with upside next year. That is, the problem is that every team can offer this type of package for Happ and there's no particular reason for the Jays to prefer the Yanks' offer. The Yanks's depth advantage is if they are willing to offer 2 Bs and C -- although still something most teams can match without much consequence.

No, you're missing my point. Every team has a couple of B's, but if you only have 1 or 2, like Seattle, the chances are much higher that Toronto won't like any of them. If you have only 2 B's, and Toronto thinks they're both B-, you can't do a trade.

Whereas, if you have 6 or 7 B's, the odds are much higher Toronto thinks one of them is a B+, and you get the deal done.
   56. Rusty Priske Posted: June 04, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5685410)
Josh Donaldson's trade value and future free agency contract continue to drop... and drop... and drop.

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