Thank god. I no longer have to argue with Cardinals fans who want to trade away multiple prospects for a 2-month rental in the midst of a sunken season in the hopes of signing him to an extension before he hits the market...

Woo-hoo! Great contract for the Sox, and great news that he'll be staying on the South Side.

I'd imagine that Garland or Contreras will be moved by the deadline, now. I hope some GM still thinks Contreras has something left -- the Sox would do very well to get rid of that $10 million over the next two-and-a-half years.

One year no-trade clause. Salary escalates to $15 million if he's traded, plus a vested player option if he's dealt. There's an 18-month window between his no-trade clause and his 10-and-5 rights.

(According to the post-game show.)

ESPN basically says the same thing PH wrote.

Obviously, Buehrle is going to make tons of money but it wasn't all about the money for him. He might have gotten twice as much guaranteed if he became a free agent. This is a fantastic deal for the White Sox. In fact, Buehrle may net them more in a trade during that 18-month window considering the contract he signed if Williams does decide to move him. Just a great deal for the Sox.

Agree with #5, the entire course of the negotiations (specifically Buerhle's sticking point being the no-trade clause) made it pretty obvious that it really wasn't about the money for him. A great deal for the Sox, and one that obviously will make Buerhle even more of a fan favorite here on the South Side.

Last four years K%, BB%, and BABIP:

2004 16% 5% .316
2005 15% 4% .316
2006 11% 6% .313
2007 15% 5% .267

This is a 4-ERA arm having a lucky season. These days, a steady 4 ERA may well be worth $14m, but I don't see this as "fantastic" unless he stays lucky for a year or so, and the Sox subsequently monetize the contract.

He's been a sub-4-ERA pitcher for all but two three-month periods of his career.

Great deal...

Kenny should now do everything in his power to trade Contreras. I know they won't get much more than a bag of balls for him, but I'd be really disappointed to see either Vazquez or Garland go. Javy's been absolutely nasty this year, and has thrown two straight complete games. A 2008 rotation of Buerhle-Garland-Vazquez-Danks-Broadway would be pretty decent, at the least.

So now it looks like Kenny's top trading chip is Iguchi.

A 2008 rotation of Buerhle-Garland-Vazquez-Danks-Broadway would be pretty decent, at the least.

I'd give Floyd first dibs, as long as he doesn't regress in Charlotte. I saw them both pitch in person last week, and Broadway's walking way too many guys. He doesn't have the stuff to get away with it.

This is a 4-ERA arm having a lucky season.

He's been lucky five of seven seasons as a starter then, that kind of luck is worth paying for.

*cough*inordinatenumberofunearnedruns*cough*

*cough*inordinatenumberofunearnedruns*cough*

Yeah, you mean all three of them this season? His RA/9 over his career is 4.23. Considering pitchers with career ERAs over 4.50 are getting 4/$40, I really think that's a pretty ridiculous comment.

So now it looks like Kenny's top trading chip is Iguchi.

How many teams in contention are looking for a 2B?
(The Cubs are always looking for 2B, whether they need one or not, of course)

Perhaps the Mets, but that's about it, as far as I can see...

*cough*inordinatenumberofunearnedruns*cough*

I don't know what an inordinate amount of unearned runs would be, so I compared Buehrle to Maddux. Buehrle's given up 80 unearned runs in his 1543.7 career innings. Maddux gave up 83 in his first 1543.7 innings.

In re: the 4 ERA, save this link and check it in four years. Barring injury, I predict 4 even with normal variation, so ranging from 3.5 to 4.5. I'll be only too happy to eat crow if he delivers a 3.5 or lower ERA over the full contract period.

In re: the .270 BABIP, it's a clear outlier. Anyone who has an argument why it's sustainable, please post. If I am wrong, this will be why. .270 BABIP cab be sustainable, but Buehrle's had .300+ for years. What's changed in 2007 vs 2004-2006?

In re: the market, I noted explicitly that a 4 ERA may be a fair deal at $14m. I just can't see it as "fantastic" or "great". "Pretty decent" I can accept as quite accurate.

In re: RA, it's more a long-term than short-term plaint. '04-6 again, RA adds .5, .6, and .5 over ERA. Nothing untowards, but not a name I want to blow $14m on, myself.

Not to mention that ERA and even RA only tell part of the story with Buerhle. A guy who stays that healthy and consistent and throws that many innings has a fair amount of value even if he's only average-- and Buehrle is above average.

Assuming Buehrle isn't doing this because his arm is bothering him or something, this is a very nice move by Williams.

Assuming Buehrle isn't doing this because his arm is bothering him or something, this is a very nice move by Williams.

He's not showing any Freddy Garcia-like signs. Velocity's back up to where it's always been, under his normal workload. His wife is eight months pregnant, so that's probably an impetus for some short-term security.

At any rate, I'm ecstatic. Outside of a healthy Pedro Martinez, there isn't a more enjoyable pitcher to watch. He's often back on the rubber before the catcher gets the ball back to him. The anti-Trachsel. I wasn't looking forward to having to root for another team every five days, and I'm glad I don't have to.

A guy who stays that healthy and consistent and throws that many innings has a fair amount of value even if he's only average-- and Buehrle is above average.

Yeah, but there's a ceiling to projected durability.

I don't know what an inordinate amount of unearned runs would be

Something more than ~10% of earned runs allowed. GB pitchers have an annoying tendency to give up more than their share of UER.

I don't see how this provides Buehrle with a whole lot of trade protection. That contract bump won't scare anyone off, becauase it's still super cheap. I guess he feels good that he gets a few extra bucks if he's traded somewhere he doesn't want to go, but it just doesn't seem like that would be enough to make a difference.

Not signing Buehrle would have sent the wrong message to their fans.

BTW, it's nice to see Javier Vazquez having himself a nice season. His last three years have been somewhat disappointing for a guy as talented as he is.

In re: the 4 ERA, save this link and check it in four years. Barring injury, I predict 4 even with normal variation, so ranging from 3.5 to 4.5. I'll be only too happy to eat crow if he delivers a 3.5 or lower ERA over the full contract period.

If you guaranteed me right now that Buehrle would give the Sox 800 innings of a 4.00 ERA over the life of the contract, I'd probably take that. Considering the park and league he's pitching in, those look like above average numbers. Not elite by any means, but IMO worth the $56 million.

To illustrate that point, the average park and league adjusted ERA during Buerhle's time with the White Sox is 4.63. His career ERA is 3.77 for an ERA+ of 123. Even if it was 4.00 that would be an ERA+ of 116, or somewhere between Andy Pettite and Brad Radke. Right now he has the 11th best career ERA+ among active starting pitchers (14th if you include Pedro, RJ and Schilling). That doesn't even take into account that he's never been on the DL and always gives you 200 IP.

He is an absolute steal at 4 yrs./56 million. He would have received at least 5/80 on the open market and that's being conservative.

Whether or not the deal pans out, in the end the Chisox had to make it for the same reason they had to make the Konerko deal a year and a half ago. They have a reputation for being "cheap", and their credibility with their fan base is tenuous even with the 2005 championship. Some contracts simply have to be evaluated in the P.R. sense. After spending the 1990s inflaming their fan base with hardheaded business decisions, the White Sox have to take a few flyers, and taking them on their own heroes is doubly good for them.

This is what I refer to as the Matsuzaka dilemma: he's shown he can throw a shitload of innings, but then again, that arm has been through a lot of innings.

I'd give Floyd first dibs, as long as he doesn't regress in Charlotte.

I'm pretty sure the plan would be for Gio Gonzalez to start instead of Floyd if the other four are intact. Gonzalez strikes batters out at a stunning rate, and while he pitches in a PETCO-like home park at BIR-AA, his road numbers are impressive.

This is what I refer to as the Matsuzaka dilemma: he's shown he can throw a shitload of innings, but then again, that arm has been through a lot of innings.

Matsuzaka, for whom the Red Sox risked almost twice as much money before he'd faced an American League lineup even once. Of course, the Red Sox have twice as much money as the White Sox, so it's even.

It's the reverse Josh Beckett dilemma: He's never thrown a lot of innings, but then again, he's never had to throw a lot of innings.

Top 2 comps: Mulder & Glavine. Definition of a coin flip. The truth will be somewhere in between and well worth the money.

Great move. The only danger I see is that he could be this generation's Jimmy Key: brilliant crafty lefty who gets by despite not being able to strike anyone out. As he ages, the K rate declines and he turns into a pumpkin.

(looks it up). Key was first-rate through age 33. Buehrle will be 32 at the end of this deal. Holy living crap this is a good signing.

Re: post #7. I'll play. If Buehrle had a .295 BABIP (about the norm for his career) he'd have 12 more non-HR hits allowed this year. So far, 29 of his 118 non-HR baserunners have scored, so those 12 extra hits add up to 3 more runs. Well, say they drive in some runs of their own. Let's double it to six. And we'll make them all earned runs. That jumps up his 2007 ERA to 3.50. That's with a normal BABIP on the year.

Like I said, this is an excellent signing for the club.

Buehrle's agent should be fired for letting him sign this deal.

Dag Nabbit, that's not the right way to calculate it. Add on 12 non-HR hits and subtract 12 outs, and that's a swing of (.563+.09)*12 = 8 runs. Plus he'd have four fewer innings pitched, so he'd have 50 R in 111.7 IP, instead of 42 R in 115.7 IP. Then you have to count for his strand rate also being higher this year than average (and he hasn't shown a Glavinesque ability to "bear down" with men on base over his career), which according to BP adds 4 more runs. So you've got 54 R in 111.7 IP, which is a 4.35 RA. Using his career rate of 89% of runs being earned, that gives a 3.87 ERA. Still pretty good, especially in the AL.

So you've got 54 R

Wait a sec -- you've got 12 additional hits - non-HR hits mind you - creating 12 additional runs? That can't possibly be right. Been a long time since I looked at The Hidden Game, but 1 hit doesn't equal an extra run.

What did Ted Lilly get last winter? Suppan? Eaton?

I'd make this deal in a heartbeat if I were Kenny Williams. As previously noted, the PR hit would have been atrocious if he were traded or walked (comparisons to Roenick were coming heavy in the past week). Fine deal by Buehrle and Williams. Buehrle's agent? Eh.

This is a 4-ERA arm having a lucky season. These days, a steady 4 ERA may well be worth $14m, but I don't see this as "fantastic" unless he stays lucky for a year or so, and the Sox subsequently monetize the contract.

Damn the facts, full speed ahead!

I was hoping the Barry Zito flop would dampen enthusiasm for the starting pitcher market. I can see paying Santana Zito money, but do GM's ever learn from prior mistakes, or is every free-agent crop a new chance to make a new or different mistake?

(looks it up). Key was first-rate through age 33. Buehrle will be 32 at the end of this deal. Holy living crap this is a good signing.

And if Buehrle's still good at the end of this, as he might be, he'll really be able to cash in. Who knows what the market will be for his services at the end of 2011?

Although this deal is rightly seen as a home-town discount, it's really a departure for the White Sox in terms of overall philosophy. They've made Buerhle the best-paid player on the team (well, I think Jim Thome will make more next year, but the Phillies are footing part of the bill, so I don't really count him) and have handed out the first contract to a pitcher for longer than three years since Jaime Navarro a decade ago. Like every contract, this has a chance to come back and bite the team, but Buehrle's about as good a risk to stay healthy and consistent as anyone out there.

And now that this has happened, the real moves can start. After the All-Star break, look for the wheels to start turning. Contreras will probably be moved for whatever the team can get, as will Dye. Iguchi and Vazquez will be actively shopped, as well.

I think Garland will be gone before Vazquez.

and have handed out the first contract to a pitcher for longer than three years since Jaime Navarro a decade ago.

I thought Garland got four years? I might be misremembering.

I think Garland will be gone before Vazquez.

I hope not. Garland is three years younger than Vazquez and isn't nearly as volatile. I think it's time to sell high on Vazquez.

I thought Garland got four years? I might be misremembering.

He's in the second year of a three-year, $29 Million contract.

Over on "The Book' blog, MGL computes the expected WAR of Buerhle, and concludes that he is being overpaid with the present deal. That is, you can find other ballplayers with the same WAR for cheaper. But it's likely that many/most of these guy are non-pitchers who play good defense. Realistically, I think he should be compared to other starting pitchers, and according to what the actual market is for pitchers of Buerhle's caliber.

So, the Sox are getting the age 29-32 seasons of an above-avg, durable pitcher for what most observers think is below his actual market value. How can that not be seen as a good deal for the Sox, given the realities of the marketplace?

So, the Sox are getting the age 29-32 seasons of an above-avg, durable pitcher for what most observers think is below his actual market value. How can that not be seen as a good deal for the Sox, given the realities of the marketplace?

mgl thinks that everything that Ken Williams does is colossally stupid, by default.

I agree with him that starting pitching in general is overpriced, compared to (say) a good glove man, who almost nobody thinks has any value. But I think you have to accept that premise if you're going to analyse a signing, else just about any pitching free agent signing is stupid.

mgl thinks that everything that Ken Williams does is colossally stupid, by default.

mgl thinks that everything that everyone else in the world does is colossally stupid, by default.

But I think you have to accept that premise if you're going to analyse a signing, else just about any pitching free agent signing is stupid.

If I suddenly took over the Royals, I think I might sign a bunch of defensive players specifically with the plan of flipping pitchers to big clubs for a few years. It's not like you can't get no-hit, all-glove players on the cheap, and then you sign mediocre pitchers who end up having strong seasons because of the gloves behind them. There's always struggling pitchers available, and there's always a few teams that will trade for a guy who puts up a very strong first half.

I agree with him that starting pitching in general is overpriced, compared to (say) a good glove man, who almost nobody thinks has any value. But I think you have to accept that premise if you're going to analyse a signing, else just about any pitching free agent signing is stupid.

I think -- unless I have seriously misunderstood MGL on this issue in the past -- that the bolded portion is an accurate summary of his view. Any time you have sufficient millions to spend on an "elite" FA, you would be spending it stupidly if you spend it on a FA pitcher. In his opinion, a position player will always be a smarter buy, unless you are shopping in the bargain bin. Always.

Also MGL is basing his assessment on Buerhle being an equivalent player to Jake Westbrook. He based this on the various pre-season projection systems that projected Westbrook to be better or equivalent. Of course this was coming off the worst year of his career and doesn't include his performance this year. The interesting thing about this is that it really represents a wonderful argument for utilizing scouting and sabermetrics to make decisions. Last year Buerhle had a very noticeable 4-5 MPH drop in his velocity that correlated very well with his horrible season. This year Buerhle's velocity has returned to it's normal level and not coincidentally so has his effectiveness. Tangotiger rightfully pointed out that Buerhle has been somewhat lucky this year with a lower BABIP and lower LOB% than previuos years. However adjusting for those he's still having a very good year (closer to his career 3.77 ERA than his present 3.03).

I agree with mgl on one thing. If you think Buerhle is an equivalent player to Westbrook then you definitely overpaid. You would have had a good argument that they were equivalent before this season and since projection systems weight the most recent year heaviest of course they projected Buerhle poorly. Thankfully, we (and Kenny Williams) have a whole half season of scouting and statistical data to utilize. I'm quite confident that GMs at this moment (and when he would have been a free agent) don't think that Buerhle is equivalent to end of '06 Westbrook.

"In his opinion, a position player will always be a smarter buy, unless you are shopping in the bargain bin. Always."

Until the point when the position players prices get bid up by more suitors, and pitchers prices drop because of lack of suitors, at which point...

Any time you have sufficient millions to spend on an "elite" FA, you would be spending it stupidly if you spend it on a FA pitcher. In his opinion, a position player will always be a smarter buy, unless you are shopping in the bargain bin. Always.

I think that's probably true for the whole regular season, and untrue for the playoffs, where you get to use your elite pitchers for a higher percentage of starts. That is, of course, not due to any rigorous analysis, mind you.

I think it's easier in theory to say that position players are more valuable, and you should root around in the bargain bin for your starting pitchers, than it is to actually try to go through the season without any decent starting pitchers.

The constant shuttle between AAA and the majors, trying to find fresh arms, the "take one for the team" starts because your bullpen is fried, the marathon slugfests, all that gets old really quickly.

If you think Buerhle is an equivalent player to Westbrook then you definitely overpaid. You would have had a good argument that they were equivalent before this season and since projection systems weight the most recent year heaviest of course they projected Buerhle poorly. Thankfully, we (and Kenny Williams) have a whole half season of scouting and statistical data to utilize. I'm quite confident that GMs at this moment (and when he would have been a free agent) don't think that Buerhle is equivalent to end of '06 Westbrook.

No. MGL's opinion of the matter would not depend, at least not critically, on his view of Buerhle's merits relative to Westbrook. That would go only to HOW bad it was to sign him to this deal. Even if MGL believes Buerhle is significantly superior to Westbrook, he would still (I am virtually certain) believe a $14M/year deal for a starting pitcher is a terribly stupid use of resources, because those dollars can almost certainly be allocated to buy more wins spent on a position player.

Similarly, he wouldn't accept CrosbyBird's argument (# 50) about the post-season. Well, he would acknowledge that you can certainly use the elite pitchers in a higher percentage of the games than you can in the post-season. But he'd argue that there is no evidence that this produces actual post-season success, certainly not any more than buying elite position players with those dollars.

"just about any pitching free agent signing is stupid"

I can see this in terms of cold logic: not only are pitchers' numbers harder to predict season-to-season, but you get less dollar-for-dollar value for FA pitchers than for FA position players. However, most baseball franchises are not run on cold logic. If the goal is purely to maximize profit margins, go ahead. But then you're likely to wind up with the Reds, who were among the most consistently profitable franchises (based on operating profits compared with revenues) of 2000-04, according to the Business of baseball site. The Reds' winning percentages those years: .525, .407, .481, .426, .469. Meanwhile, I think it's fair to say that in practice most (more than half, at least) franchises seek to balance maximizing profits/profit margins with winning. That means sometimes you have to sacrifice profit margins to pay for a FA pitcher, to fill a hole or gain an on-field edge.

Buehrle's agent should be fired for letting him sign this deal.

I thought the same thing last year about Oswalt's contract.

WRT paying for pitchers and hitters- in Fantasy Baseball with an auction format the average teams spends somewhere between 30 to 35% on pitching an 65 to 70% on hitting- EVEN THOUGH half your points come from pitching.
WHY? Because pitching is unreliable. Pitchers get hurt, pitchers lose (and gain) effectiveness seemingly at random, pitchers seem to show no development pattern. In a keeper league a 23 year old batter with a career minor league line of .300/.375/.500 and .290/.350/.475 in 275 MLB at bats will trigger a bidding frenzy - a 23 year old SP with a 3.00 minor league ERA and a 3.50 ERA in 90 mlb IP likely will go for under $10.

At the start of the year someone posted a link showing the effectiveness of projections- hitting projections (Pecota/Zips/Marcel the Monkey..) had scores (correlations) of .70 or so- for pitching no system was above .50 (actually I don't think any was above .40).

Looking at Buehrles top 10 BBREF comps, after their age 28 seasons they pitched the following innings: 2743; 0; 350; 193; 1938; 327; 340; 2752; 442; 2553.
6 had less than 450 ip left in the tank (with ERA+s of 66 to 96)- Buehrle does that it's a bad deal
4 had 1938 or more IP all with ERA+s better than 100, Buehrle does that and in this market it's a good deal for Chicago

there is no evidence that this produces actual post-season success, certainly not any more than buying elite position players with those dollars.

Like I said before, I haven't done a study, but it must be the case that part of the equation in pitcher worth takes into account the percentage of time they are on the mound. The balance of "worth" has to be different in the postseason where a starter is unquestionably on the field for a greater percentage of his team's innings than in the regular season.

Whether that is so small as to be insignificant in the spread of the regular season is a fair argument, but for teams that already are nearly a lock to make the playoffs, perhaps not. Is a regular season improvement of 2-3 wins as significant as a postseason improvement of 1 win?