I have to say, my insistence back in June that both New York teams would win their divisions smells like roses now.

I wish Cano could hit in the 1st half.

It's going to be a really, really, really good division/WC race.

It's nice to see a Yankee team for a change that isn't dependent on winning a bunch of 14-11 games. That bullpen's gone from the shlthouse to the penthouse since the end of May, and for the first time since the Mendoza/Nelson/Stanton years they seem much better set for a postseason run.

And to think that they've accomplished all this without signing Barry Bonds. Who'd a-thunk it?

It's nice to see a Yankee team for a change that isn't dependent on winning a bunch of 14-11 games.

I dunno if I share your optimism here; not with Messers Rasner and Ponson still in the rotation.

Add a healthy Wang to this team, and I agree.

It's nice to see a Yankee team for a change that isn't dependent on winning a bunch of 14-11 games.

I dunno if I share your optimism here; not with Messers Rasner and Ponson still in the rotation.

Add a healthy Wang to this team, and I agree.

There's a reasonable chance that by the end of the month Rasner and / or Ponson could be replaced by Washburn and / or Kennedy. Right or wrong, I'm still bullish on Kennedy.

But even without that, the big difference now is that not only is the bullpen a lot deeper, it's being used in a way that none of the individual pitchers are likely to burn out at the end of the year, the way that Gordon and Proctor (etc.) did. This is to Girardi's everlasting credit, and I'm glad I was wrong about his replacement of Torre.

Not saying that it wouldn't be nice to improve those 4th and 5th slots, but Ponson and Rasner this year may not be nearly as fatal as they would have been in the recent past.

This is to Girardi's everlasting credit, and I'm glad I was wrong about his replacement of Torre.

Well, let's not go overboard. Much of Girardi's success with the bullpen is that almost everyone has been successful -- had only, say, Veras been pitching well, he may have pitched him into the ground just like Torre.

I wish Cano could hit in the 1st half.

Cano's OPS before the break was .643. It's .710 now. In 8 games! It's been unreal to watch him hit.

All teams look good when they go on an 8-0 tear.

Having said that, I'm pretty happy that the Yankees have come roaring back, and there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward, even with Posada and Matsui out for the year (Nady may not be as good as Matsui, but he's better than Gardner/Christian, so the drop off isn't huge).

Now that Cano is back, Melky is starting to get some hits (he is) and with Bruney, IPK, Hughes and Wang coming back in the near future, the Yanks have as good a chance as anyone at going to the playoffs.

Once there, who knows, but the way this year was looking, that is no small achievement.

As to Ponson/Rassner, if I'm Cashman, I'd ride those two out even if Seattle is willing to salary-dump Washburn, EXCEPT if Washburn waives his no-trade once he's in NY. While I would like to have Washburn on the 2008 Yanks, I'm not sure he's that necessary in 2009.....

Yeah, it's always fun to watch a low BABIP fluke correct itself.

I'll log my prediction here as Yankees 95-67, Red Sox 91-71, Rays 87-75.

Prediction 2: Derek Jeter will win the MVP this year. He'll play hot in the second half, the Yankees win the division, and the writers collectively exclaim, "oh ####, we haven't given our patron god an MVP yet!?" and that will be that.

Did anyone else see the Fox pre-game show where Jeannie Zelasko (sp?) asked Rosenthal whether he'd be voting for Mark Grace (who was sitting in the studio with her and Kevin Kennedy) for the HOF next year? Rosenthal hemmed and hawed and finally just said no, I won't be. Grace looked a little pissy and there was an awkward silence for a few seconds.
Zelasko is an idiot and Grace is a classless dick for not bailing Rosenthal out before he finally had to say yes or no. Weird to watch.

While I would like to have Washburn on the 2008 Yanks, I'm not sure he's that necessary in 2009.....

I dunno. Even if we assume that Wang can stay healthy (and this hasn't been proven to me yet), Pettitte and Mussina are a year older and re-signing both is by no means a sure thing. We haven't seen Hughes or IPK effective and healthy for an entire year yet. I'm pretty sure that Washburn would be worthy of a rotation spot in '09.

This is to Girardi's everlasting credit, and I'm glad I was wrong about his replacement of Torre.

Well, let's not go overboard. Much of Girardi's success with the bullpen is that almost everyone has been successful -- had only, say, Veras been pitching well, he may have pitched him into the ground just like Torre.

Which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Maybe I'm just parroting the CW, but it seems to me that much of that improved bullpen performance has to do with its being used in a more focused and intelligent way. Obviously this alone isn't a magic bullet, but it doesn't surprise me that pitchers who know their roles, and can count on not being buried and forgotten, might be more productive than pitchers who have little idea as to what their roles are. Just a thought.

TVerik, read my post. I'd like for the Yankees to be the ones who determine if they keep Washburn or not (as opposed to it being Washburn, if he has a no-trade clause in place once in NY).

We could run a number of scenarios, but realistically, the Yanks could easily end up with a rotation of C.C., Wang, Joba, Moose and Pettitte, with Hughes and IPK as starters 6 and 7 on the depth chart (Aceves and Horne would probably be No. 8 and 9).

Washburn doesn't fit in that scenario.

He DOES fit in a scenario where the Yanks don't sign C.C. (or Sheets), and one of Pettitte or Moose decide to retire.

(At that point, the Yanks rotation is Wang, Joba, one of Moose/Pettitte, with Hughes and IPK rounding out the rotation).

Did anyone else see the Fox pre-game show where Jeannie Zelasko (sp?) asked Rosenthal whether he'd be voting for Mark Grace (who was sitting in the studio with her and Kevin Kennedy) for the HOF next year? Rosenthal hemmed and hawed and finally just said no, I won't be. Grace looked a little pissy and there was an awkward silence for a few seconds.

I saw that, and all I could think of was the sort of reaction it might get here. Mark Grace!!

I know that Zelasko was likely just trying to provide Grace with a glowing moment, but every time that woman opens her mouth, she subtracts from the sum of human knowledge.

Not that most of Kennedy's choices were any better. It was as if he were picking candidates for the Hall of the Very Overrated.

All teams look good when they go on an 8-0 tear.

Yeah, but they've gone 8-0 against above .500 teams, and even though the A's are somewhat worse than they were before the trades, two of those teams are playoff caliber. That's pretty impressive to do so well against this kind of competition.

We could run a number of scenarios, but realistically, the Yanks could easily end up with a rotation of C.C., Wang, Joba, Moose and Pettitte, with Hughes and IPK as starters 6 and 7 on the depth chart (Aceves and Horne would probably be No. 8 and 9).

I'll be surprised if they don't leave at least one spot for one of the two young guns next season. I'll be very surprised. Hopefully Pettitte ##### off and Moose comes back.

If he assents to a trade to NY, does his no-trade clause survive the move? I'm not sure.

He's a Yankees-young 34, and hasn't had a full-season ERA+ below 95 in this century. He's a lefty, and he's generally good for about 200 IP per year. My level of optimism is clearly different from yours, but I can't think of a Yankee team in the last ten years that would not want for that kind of production in the rotation.

Did you just curse Pettitte out, Cowboy?

Did you just curse Pettitte out, Cowboy?

I don't particularly like Pettitte and I'm preparing to be pissed off when the Yanks resign him instead of Moose this offseason.

I'm not a huge Pettitte fan either. But I feel (and I don't think it's controversial) that he's been an asset since signing with the Yanks. And I like him at the #3 spot of the rotation.

FWIW, I'm pretty sure that if Moose pitches next year, it'll be in NY or Balty. And I think NY gets the nod, maybe 75/25.

I don't particularly like Pettitte and I'm preparing to be pissed off when the Yanks resign him instead of Moose this offseason.

I think CC will get crazy money from someone besides the Yankees, so they'll be room for both Moose and Andy. Andy's obviously the much better bet to be effective for 1-3 more years. He still has good stuff.

Rays 87-75

Could you explain what specifically will cause them to only play at a .450 clip the rest of the way?

No response for 15 minutes!

One schedule factor I haven't heard noted much for the three AL East contenders looking forward: Boston is done with their West Coast travel for the rest of the year. Tampa has one more in that direction which does not include the Angels; NY has two more trips inside of a month, both of which include the Angels and are exactly the kind that can tax older teams:

First one beginning August 4 is TEX/LAA/MIN. August heat in Dallas to start, then two playoff contenders, with multiple time zone switches.

Second one beginning September 1 is DET/TAM/SEA/LAA. The Tigers is a makeup game, and while they'll only have one time zone switch it's still four cities, with a night game in Tampa in the finale of that series before having to take a redeye and then play the next night in Seattle.

Also, the Redsox have only played 49 games at home, while Yankees have played 55 games at home, and Tampa has played 56 games at home.

Could you explain what specifically will cause them to only play at a .450 clip the rest of the way?

I'm thinking the answer is Northeastern smugness/skepticism. Face it, Jim: the Rays are just going to have to win this season in order for people to stop condescending to them.

For the record, my prediction is that the Rays win the division, Yanks take the WC, and the Red Sox stay home. The last two could flip easily, however - the separation between them will be only a game or two.

Prediction 2: Derek Jeter will win the MVP this year. He'll play hot in the second half, the Yankees win the division, and the writers collectively exclaim, "oh ####, we haven't given our patron god an MVP yet!?" and that will be that.

If that were to happen, Jeter would be one of the oldest first time MVPs in history. Only Hank Sauer (35), Dennis Eckersley (37), and Willie Stargell (38) would be older at the time of their first honor.

Either way you wouldn't want to be a Boston fan right now, considering the Sox's long and illustrious history of severe choking.

I admit I go by feel when I toss out predictions like this, but yeah, sure, I'll explain:

1. The Rays are lucky to be 60-42. Their Pythag is 55-47. This is an indicator of modest decline in W-L going forward (which appears to have already begun).
2. I think Carlos Pena's 2007 was a fluke, and his 2008 first half was closer to what you're going to get from him. He won't improve much.
3. They've gotten strong performance from several hitters (Dioner Navarro, Evan Longoria, Eric Hinske) that, collectively, I expect will drop off.
4. Setting Pena aside as I've already explained my stance on him, I don't see any hitters they should expect notable improvement from in the second half, except maybe B.J. Upton.
5. Edwin Jackson is going to turn into a pumpkin.
6. While there are several guys in their bullpen whose peripherals support their excellent ERAs (wow, what happened to turn Grant Balfour into Joe Nathan?) I just don't trust their bullpen to keep it up.

I was along with general (sabermetric) wisdom in March that they'd be around 86, 88 wins this year, and I think that's where they'll end up after a first half a little over their heads. Of course I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

Either way you wouldn't want to be a Boston fan right now, considering the Sox's long and illustrious history of severe choking.

To the contrary, this is the best time to be one: all the games seem to matter more now.

But Justin, if they play like an 86 win team the rest of the way (ignoring tonight's game), they'll finish 92-70. I understand the going on feel aspect, but a five game gap over 60 games is pretty huge.

Losing streaks happen, Vegas. I realize I'm going against statistical probability a bit, but that's part of the fun that makes predictions. I'm the guy that picked the Padres to win the NL this year (but I'm also the guy that picked the Rockies to make the postseason last year and the Mariners to be a .500-ish team). I try to avoid just picking the same thing that happened last year to happen this year, as most people do, or pick what happened in the first half to happen again in the second. That's all.

Also, I'm expecting them to play worse than an 86 win team in the second half, for the reasons I listed.

Winning streaks also happen...

I can certainly understand what you're saying though, with the "just trying to keep things interesting" attitude. Nothing wrong with that.

Either way you wouldn't want to be a Boston fan right now, considering the Sox's long and illustrious history of severe choking.

This may have fit four years ago, but now?

I don't see any hitters they should expect notable improvement from in the second half, except maybe B.J. Upton.

You don't think Carl Crawford is due to improve on his 83 OPS+? Jason Bartlett is also hitting significantly lower than he has in the past.

Of course I could be wrong, but that's what I think.

You think everything is going to go wrong, no wonder you think they'll suck. Scott Kazmir missed significant time in the first half, he'll be around for the stretch and that alone makes a big difference. I wish it'll be as easy as you think to bump em out, but they're in first by two and three games and I don't see anything resembling an unsustainable pace for any of the guys on the team, including the guys you listed. I think they're going to be in it until the end.

5. Edwin Jackson is going to turn into a pumpkin.
6. While there are several guys in their bullpen whose peripherals support their excellent ERAs (wow, what happened to turn Grant Balfour into Joe Nathan?) I just don't trust their bullpen to keep it up.

Both of these points ignore the biggest X-factor the Rays have going for them: David Price. He's coming. Soon. He could slot into the rotation if necessary, but I have a feeling the Rays are going to deploy him like a super-charged Joba throughout August and September, and dear god almighty they're gonna be ferocious if so. Look at Price's numbers in the minors right now...there's every reason to think he will dominate out of the pen for them.

Yeah, I'd have Price in the bullpen right now if I were them. I'll adjust my expectations for the Rays if/when he comes up, but it really ought to be soon if they want to win this year.