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Thursday, July 13, 2006

MLB: Nats land Kearns, Lopez from Reds

Royce Clayton?...

The Nationals began what could be an eventful run-up to the July 31 trade deadline with an eight-player deal on Thursday, acquiring outfielder Austin Kearns, shortstop Felipe Lopez and right-hander Ryan Wagner from the Reds in exchange for relievers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray and Daryl Thompson, infielder Brendan Harris and shortstop Royce Clayton.

Kearns, Lopez and Wagner are players who were either drafted or acquired in a trade by Nationals general manager Jim Bowden when he was with the Reds. Kearns and Lopez are expected to join the club on Friday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, while Wagner will be optioned to Triple-A New Orleans of the Pacific Coast League.

Repoz Posted: July 13, 2006 at 10:32 PM | 94 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals, reds

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   1. 3Com Park Posted: July 13, 2006 at 10:39 PM (#2098053)
If this deal went down in my fantasy league the team that got next to nothing for Kearns, Lopez and Ryan Wagner would be kicked out of the league.
   2. The Balls of Summer Posted: July 13, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2098060)
Uh, what?
   3. NTNgod Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:14 PM (#2098081)
GM quotes from the AP story:
"We paid a steep price," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "I'm sure this will be a controversial trade. I know a lot of people will be leaving nasty messages on my voicemail, and I'll have some who think it's great."
...
"Philosophically, we believe that when you have a chance to trade a middle reliever for an everyday player, that's helpful," [Jim] Bowden said. "Over the long run, if you look at a player for the next five to seven years, pitchers are more of a risk to injuries than everyday players."
   4. The Curly W Theory Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:23 PM (#2098090)
Are there words to describe this? A trade in which Jim Bowden comes off looking like a genius? I'm pretty sure the only voicemail Krivsky will get that thinks this trade is great will be from Jim Bowden.
   5. bibigon Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:24 PM (#2098092)
So Wayne... What was your thought process here?
   6. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:26 PM (#2098095)
A ####### A trade for Jim Bowden. Geez, if anything can save his job this can. I've thought as much as anyone that he was an idiot, but I am amazed that he could pull this off.
   7. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:28 PM (#2098098)
So Wayne... What was your thought process here?

The one Reds player they interviewed (Freel) seemed to love the deal. Obviously there was a lot of internal discontent over the state of the bullpen. That's the only way this deal makes any sense at all.
   8. Kris Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:28 PM (#2098099)
Wait, how the hell did this happen? I can't think of any way this makes sense.
   9. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:28 PM (#2098100)
I know a lot of people will be leaving nasty messages on my voicemail, and I'll have some who think it's great.

I wonder who's gonna call him and tell him it's great. Maybe it'll just be Krivsky calling himself and leaving messages using different voices a la Mrs. Doubtfire.
   10. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:30 PM (#2098103)
The Expos/Nats did well to get rid of Omar Minaya. Just imagine if Omar were running the Nats right now; he'd have acquired El Duque and going all out trying to get Livan and Baez to get his cigar rolling business started.

There is a saying in poker that you should always stop when you're ahead, and you know you've really gotten lucky on a couple of hands (Phillips, Arroyo). Krivsky should've really just packed it in and called it a year.

What a mess.

In other news, I have Denorfia on my NL only keeper team :) Ditto for Felipe Lopez :(

Oh, and I never ever thought I'd live to see the day in which Royce Clayton gets traded mid-season to a "contender". This trade is so funny because it's so painfully real.
   11. tmrchmn Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:31 PM (#2098105)
Kearns and Lopez make nearly $7 million between them, neither is all that great, and neither had much trade value. Kearns is fragile as hell and Lopez is a butcher on defense. The trade opened a spot for Chris Denorfia. It was a chance to shore up the team's worst problems and give a mediocre team with many players well over their heads a meaningful chance at playing in October without sacrificing anyone who was in the team's long term plans. Thompson's a live arm, Bray and Majewski are cheap and young enough to help form the core of a good bullpen with Todd Coffey for a couple of years, and Harris can help off the bench. Not a bad deal for the Nats to get a couple of fringe-average players near their prime for some relievers, and makes all the sense in the world for the Reds.
   12. J. Sosa Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2098106)
I saw that Kearns had been traded to the Nationals on ESPNnews and I thought "that's an odd match, wonder who they got."

And then I saw the entire deal.

Maybe somebody can help me out, but this is the most awful deal I can remember a MLB team making since the Kazmir trade by a wide margin. I wouldn't have traded Kearns for Bray and Majewski straight up. In fact, I would have laughed and asked Bowden for his keys.

Royce Clayton? Brendan Harris?

I suppose there is a reason Bowden asks for the sun, moon, and stars. Sometimes you might have Krivsky on the phone.
   13. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:37 PM (#2098110)
Kearns is finally having a bounce back season. Lopez might be a butcher on defence, but he has been one of the better hitting SS.
And Ryan Wagner? No more chances for him in that fragile bullpen?

All they got in return are some fungible middle relievers and clayton. the only way this trade makes sense is if they believe in Philips and Freel and are moving Philips to SS. why not trade aurilia??
   14. AJM Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:37 PM (#2098111)
We paid a steep price,

If you are making a trade and you are the one who's losing the two best players involved it's probably not a good idea to make it.
   15. AWT Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#2098114)
John Freaking Mabry?!?!!
   16. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:45 PM (#2098116)
I saw that Kearns had been traded to the Nationals on ESPNnews and I thought "that's an odd match, wonder who they got."


Yeah, that's how I found out about it and I thought the same. Not so much that he was dealt, but that the Nationals, a team I thought was going to be selling, got him. I doubt they get the WC, but I like their chances a lot more with this trade.
   17. DCW3 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:48 PM (#2098119)
So Wayne... What was your thought process here?

Assistant GM: Uh, Mr. Krivsky? I've been getting a lot of messages on my voice mail about this trade: a lot of "suck my" this, and "your mother's a" that, and I just wanted to know--how should I respond to them?

Wayne Krivsky: Well, you see, son, this is all about how much more dominant the AL has been than the NL this year. Look at what a great deal we got with Arroyo: how much better he's been in the NL than he was in the AL. And, I figure that, if Majewski and Bray were that good in the AL with the Senators, they should be Cy Young candidates in the NL.

Assistant GM: Uh, sir, you're thinking of the old Washington Senators. These are the Washington Nationals. They play in the National League.

Wayne Krivsky: Damn Bowden's genius! I should have known he was just pretending to be drunk at 9 in the morning! Well, at least my deal with the Brewers went through, sending Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion to Milwaukee for Jose Capellan. Now, the Brewers, there's a team with a strong AL history. I remember them playing the Cardinals in the '82 Series.

Assistant GM: Uh, sir, I'm afraid I have some bad news for you...
   18. DCW3 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:53 PM (#2098122)
And if the Reds were really concerned enough about defense to dump Lopez, then Griffey or Dunn should have been playing first by now. Hatteberg's having a nice season so far, yes, but it's not going to last.
   19. J. Sosa Posted: July 13, 2006 at 11:54 PM (#2098123)
I agree that Kearns is fragile, but it just seems like a 26 year old outfielder with a solid bat and what metrics appear to rate as a slightly above average glove would bring more, especially after Lopez and Wagner are factored in. Granted, Lopez and Wagner aren't great, but I just don't see how this was the best deal out there. My first impression was likely a visceral overreaction, but I still don't understand how the Reds thought this was a good deal. Relievers are just too volatile in performance from year to year. The Reds seem to be going for it this year, but if the relievers were the main focus of their efforts, I just don't like the reasoning.
   20. Darren Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:07 AM (#2098134)
Someone somewhere pointed out that Krivsky was with the Twins when the picked up Johan and Liriano, so maybe he's a super-pitching-genius. The other point in his favor is that both Lopez and Kearns have a bad reputation as far as their heads go, no?


Other than that, it looks pretty awful. If the stats are right about Kearns's d, he's an awesome player. Then again, those same stats make Felipe into a bit of a bum.
   21. jss Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2098143)
The Reds got killed- two good young everyday players for a bunch of chaff. Even if you think Kearns and Lopez are "not all that great", the Reds did very little to help their bullpen.
   22. Chris Needham Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:24 AM (#2098148)
There are two ways to look at it. One is defensible for the Reds, the other not.

In terms of talent in and talent out, the Reds got hosed. Kearns and Lopez for two relievers and Royce Clayton is a bad trade.

But when you look at the Red's roster, it's probably a better team now. They really needed the bullpen help, and Denofria is capable of stepping up and providing Kearns-like performance. Clayton's a downgrade on Lopez, but scoring runs hasn't really been the Reds' problem.

It's certainly possible that the 25-man they have today is better than what they had, even as they gave away more talent than they took in.
   23. NTNgod Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:27 AM (#2098152)
Robo's article on the trade
Upon learning of the deal, one rival general manager was dumbfounded.

"On the surface, the Nationals made a great trade," the GM said.

The GM went on to explain, "Relief pitchers are risky. Their performance is risky. One year, they're great; the next year, they're mediocre. They're the hardest players to evaluate. Position players are the easiest. And the Nationals got two premium position players in their 20s."
   24. tmrchmn Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:31 AM (#2098156)
Kearns and Lopez are actively not valuable. Kearns has an adequate .281 EQA in a corner outfield spot, is making $3.6 million and is due up for arbitration. Lopez has a .264 EQA, is one of the worst defensive players in baseball, is making $2.7 million and is due up for arbitration. Neither is at an age where you'd expect them to improve much, and after the season you'd either have to dump them or pay them too much money. Why not get something that can help you when you have a shot at the playoffs in a weak league? Majewski's a decent setup man, Bray is a 23 year old lefty rookie with great strikeout numbers in the minors, Thompson is a lotto ticket, and Harris might be a decent pinch hitter. These guys will help for years, and the Reds saved a large pile of cash. It's only a bad trade for the Reds if you ignore the playoff race, the financial component, and the fact that Kearns and Lopez aren't hot young players but instead averageish former prospects at the probable peak of their value. It's not a bad deal for the Nats but it wasn't a robbery, either.
   25. Mushmouth Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:46 AM (#2098175)
#24 that's the Reds' line and they are sticking to it, right?

Kearns, as an adequate OF, has value to somebody. You can realize that value if you're that team or by matching the player with that team. In this case the Reds did neither because they received immaterial value.

As for Lopez, 2nd full year in the bigs, adequate offense this season. In his other year he was the best offensive SS in the league. And he's pre-prime, so while your comment about neither being at an age where you'd expect them to improve much isn't way off base, it's misleading. Lopez, at age 26, at least has to be given credit for the potential to match 2005 multiple times in the next 4-5 years. Arguing that this has no active value is simply misguided.
   26. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#2098179)
There is a saying in poker that you should always stop when you're ahead, and you know you've really gotten lucky on a couple of hands (Phillips, Arroyo). Krivsky should've really just packed it in and called it a year.


This is only a saying amongst moronic poker players.
   27. Sam M. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#2098184)
Lopez has a .264 EQA, is one of the worst defensive players in baseball, is making $2.7 million and is due up for arbitration.

A good organization sees that he can't play an adequate shortstop and finds a way to get his .355 OPB in the line-up (at second base, ideally). Or it deals him for something other than relatively fungible middle relievers.

Kearns has an adequate .281 EQA in a corner outfield spot, is making $3.6 million and is due up for arbitration.

Come on, Tim. Nice cherry-picking. If you're going to rip Lopez for his bad defense as undermining his value, then acknowledge that Kearns is an excellent defensive player, which has to enhance his value. You're in a position to ask the question of other GMs that people asked after the Kazmir deal: did Duquette let it be known Kazmir was available, and see what others might offer? The answer was no. I bet that the answer here was that Krivsy got much too single-minded in pursuit of one thing, just as Duquette did, and didn't think in terms of assets and value. He thus didn't get enough for these two assets.

Your argument is reasonable ONLY when you build in a huge assumption about the dollars, which is that Kearns and Lopez are on the cusp of making way too much money for the value of their contributions. If that is so, and I'm not at all sure I agree with it, then the argument contains an implicit criticism of Krivsy for waiting too long to deal them, when this problem with their value/dollar ratio is (or should be) now obvious to rival GMs. Because if a couple of good but not great set-up relievers and Royce Clayton is all that a slugging corner OFer with fine defense, and one of the best offensive SSs in the NL can bring, then either (a) you have NOT dealt those assets at the right time, or (b) you have not dealt them for the right package. One of those two things MUST be true.
   28. Rob Base Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:51 AM (#2098185)
The Expos/Nats did well to get rid of Omar Minaya. Just imagine if Omar were running the Nats right now; he'd have acquired El Duque and going all out trying to get Livan and Baez to get his cigar rolling business started.

Gee, an off-topic racist remark about Minaya. You've reached a new low.
   29. Urban Faber Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:51 AM (#2098189)
Clayton used to change teams every year, now he's doing so during the season too.
   30. J. Sosa Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#2098192)
Maybe I have an unrealistic view of Kearns, but I still think he's worth more than RFK middle relief. He's 26 years old, putting up good numbers. I don't see how that equates to "averagish former prospect". Most teams should be so lucky to be stocked with such "averagish former prospects." Lopez, again, isn't great. But as robo says in his article:

"The addition of Lopez jeopardizes the future of injured shortstop Cristian Guzman, who is owed $4.2 million in each of the next seasons."

Lopez can't field. Guzman can't field, hit, run the bases, or stay in shape. Granted, Guzman is sunk cost on the ocean floor, but still.

I just think at times, there is this expectation that teams should develop Pujolsian talent, play said Pujolsian talent until they become arbitration eligible, and then trade them for more Pujolsian talent.

Kearns is a good player, a nice piece on a good team, under team control. I do not see how the trade significantly improves the Reds this year, and I don't see Kearns as an "averagish former prospect". Its a nice salary dump, true, if one where to assume that was the intention, but as a supposed upgrade, I don't think it holds water.

I don't intend the post to come off snarky Marchman, I respect your opinions. Your position is likely similar to the Reds' view, and may prove to be true. But for the time being, I don't see it.
   31. NTNgod Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:55 AM (#2098193)
Clayton used to change teams every year, now he's doing so during the season too.

He's running out of time in his quest to play for every team.
Clayton's not getting any younger, and he's not a LOOGY.
   32. Rob Base Posted: July 14, 2006 at 12:57 AM (#2098197)
For a while there I was kicking myself for drafting Crosby ahead of Lopez. I had to drop Crosby in favor of Carlos Guillen. Lopez out of GAB into RFK, huh? Whew. Dodged that bullet.
   33. tmrchmn Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:03 AM (#2098200)
This is fascinating to me.

The Reds have been trying to trade Kearns for a long time. There hasn't been much interest because he's fragile, overpaid, and not when healthy isn't exactly a star. He's essentially Xavier Nady— the fragility cancels out Kearn's better defense and hitting—but making 9 times as much money. He had potential years ago to be better than that, got hurt a lot, added weight, and there you have it. I'm not saying he's not deserving of a major league job, but he doesn't have much value as an asset.

Lopez is an execrable shortstop, to the point where a contender probably can't play him there. He had what was almost certainly a peak year last year, and has returned to his career norms this year. I doubt he's even an average player unless he hits like he did last year, which he won't.

Getting anything of use for these two seems to me a coup given the money involved and that both have bad reputations. I think people have dramatically inflated views of how these two players are valued and are underestimating the value of the pitching the Reds got. Just my two cents.
   34. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:04 AM (#2098201)
If you're going to rip Lopez for his bad defense as undermining his value, then acknowledge that Kearns is an excellent defensive player, which has to enhance his value.

Exactly Sam. There are maybe 2-3 RFers I'd take over him defensively in the majors. Getting Denorfia into the majors is a good thing for the Reds, but when you have Griffey and Dunn in the OF the last thing you should do is trade a good hitting OF that's a stud in the field.
   35. AROM Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:15 AM (#2098212)
Really surprising trade. When I saw the headline "Nats 8 player trade" I immediately feared the worst, I thought the Angels had gotten Soriano for some combination of Santana + Kendrick or Wood.

Wondered if Bill Bray had more potential than just a loogy - he was drafted just 2 years ago in the first round - but it looks like he is, he was a reliever in college and the minors too.

Majewski has been a decent reliever, but is he really durable or just overworked and headed for a breakdown? I've seen a lot of young pitchers come up and handle his type of workload, sometimes you get a Scott Shields out of it but most of the time its an injury waiting to happen.

I have no idea if Ryan Wagner still has potential. He's been awful in Louisville this year. Clayton is a serious downgrade at SS from Lopez, no matter how bad the glove is.

Kearns is not the future superstar he looked like in his rookie year. He hit .315 as a 22 year old, but that was a fluke. He's better than the .230 hitter he was 2 years later though. He seems to have settled into the .260-.270 range, that's where he's hitting now and that where his career average has settled. He strikes out too much to hit more than that, but walks enough for a .350-.370 OBP, plays good defense, great UZR in past years and +2 so far this year by Dial's latest numbers. The power is where he has a chance to improve. I think Kearns could turn into a 40 homer guy, though maybe not in RFK.

Denorfia is a good prospect, but he's a major downgrade from Kearns. Looks like the Reds just tried to get cheaper, and I don't know if they have a longterm solution at shortstop. Maybe Phillips plays there with Freel or Aurilia at 2B?
   36. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:16 AM (#2098213)
He's essentially Xavier Nady— the fragility cancels out Kearn's better defense and hitting—but making 9 times as much money. He had potential years ago to be better than that, got hurt a lot, added weight, and there you have it.

You're excluding the part where he's been healthy this year, hitting much better than Nady ever has while playing everyday, and is still a great defender. He's still only 26 too, so it's not like he's peaked or is doomed to be injury prone his entire career.

Lopez is an execrable shortstop, to the point where a contender probably can't play him there. He had what was almost certainly a peak year last year, and has returned to his career norms this year. I doubt he's even an average player unless he hits like he did last year, which he won't.

So a guy gets to play everyday for the fist time at 25. He hits like the scouts always thought he could after some disappointing years earlier in his career when he was used sporadically. This is obviously his best hitting season ever? This doesn't even begin to pass the sniff test.
   37. NTNgod Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2098216)
Maybe Phillips plays there with Freel or Aurilia at 2B?

Narron and Krivsky indicated today that Clayton would be the everyday SS for the rest of the year, at least...
   38. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#2098218)
It does seem like this was a "we need to clear the way for Freel/Denorfia" situation.

I mean, when you have two young good right fielders, you can't play them both. Would you rather have one playing and one on the bench, or one playing and some bullpen pitchers who are also playing?
   39. J. Sosa Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:25 AM (#2098223)
It does appear from media stories the past couple of seasons that Lopez and Kearns have character issues, but as far as the perceived value of Kearns and Lopez around baseball, the quote from the GM in Rosenthal's article would appear to contradict the notion that the two were not perceived as an asset by other teams in baseball. Sam's point is well taken. I can see the argument that Lopez and Kearns are overvalued, but I don't see how its possible to then turn around and say the Reds were lucky to get what they did for overvalued players.
   40. tmrchmn Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:28 AM (#2098227)
#36— You could be right in both cases. It wouldn't at all surprise me if Kearns were beginning a fine 5-year peak and Lopez were to hit the way he did last year for the rest of this year and the next few years. The Reds, though, have a $60 million payroll. I'm sure that they'd be a lot more inclined to find out whether or not you're right were Kearns and Lopez due to receieve 1/60th, rather than 1/6th, of that payroll next year. Money can change your risk tolerance rather dramatically.
   41. J. Sosa Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:29 AM (#2098228)
"I mean, when you have two young good right fielders, you can't play them both. Would you rather have one playing and one on the bench, or one playing and some bullpen pitchers who are also playing?"

I would rather have Dunn at first base and Hatteberg on the bench. =)
   42. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:43 AM (#2098242)
The Reds, though, have a $60 million payroll. I'm sure that they'd be a lot more inclined to find out whether or not you're right were Kearns and Lopez due to receieve 1/60th, rather than 1/6th, of that payroll next year. Money can change your risk tolerance rather dramatically.


Fair enough. But judging by that quote from the GM, I can't find a way to justify the trade they ended up making, especially not when they have Griffey still in CF and Dunn in LF.
   43. CoastalFan Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:48 AM (#2098247)
Billy Beane has his "fing A trade", now whenever the Nats are looking to hose their trading partners by picking up useful everyday players for sub - replacement level middle relievers, they will forever say "lets go make a Krivsky trade....."
   44. CoastalFan Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:48 AM (#2098249)
Billy Beane has his "fing A trade", now whenever the Nats are looking to hose their trading partners by picking up useful everyday players for sub - replacement level middle relievers, they will forever say "lets go make a Krivsky trade....."
   45. haven Posted: July 14, 2006 at 01:49 AM (#2098250)
I mean, when you have two young good right fielders, you can't play them both. Would you rather have one playing and one on the bench, or one playing and some bullpen pitchers who are also playing?

I would rather have one playing and have gotten value in a deal for the other......

The problem is NOT moving Kearns. Or Lopez for that matter. The problem is thinking that players with the skill set and past performance of Majewski and Bray provide equal let alone increased value.
   46. Gaelan Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:00 AM (#2098268)
The Reds have been trying to trade Kearns for a long time. There hasn't been much interest because he's fragile, overpaid, and not when healthy isn't exactly a star. He's essentially Xavier Nady— the fragility cancels out Kearn's better defense and hitting—but making 9 times as much money. He had potential years ago to be better than that, got hurt a lot, added weight, and there you have it. I'm not saying he's not deserving of a major league job, but he doesn't have much value as an asset.


This, and your other posts, are simply delusional. Kearns is the Reds best player and it's not really that close. Only Dunn is a better hitter and Kearns is a superior (15 runs above average) defender. He also isn't expensive. Paying the arbitration years on your best player is a good thing.

Now it's true if Austin Kearns is your best player then you don't have a great team. But the solution to that problem isn't to trade your best player for middle relievers it's to go get better players.

This is the worst trade involving complete information (ie without the uncertainty of prospects) in my lifetime.
   47. tmrchmn Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2098278)
Majewski is a good setup man with little service time. Bay has virtually no service time and a fine minor league track record.

The Reds also got an intriguing, if often injured, pitching prospect; and Brendan Harris, who has minimal service time and a minor league track record indicating he'd be one of the better pinch hitters in the game.

There's also the fact that these players fit the Reds' current needs, that major league general managers don't value Kearns and Lopez as highly as BTF members, and that given the current trade environment a better deal could probably only have been consummated in three weeks, by which time an atrocious bullpen could well have knocked the Reds out of the race.

I realize I'm tilting at a windmill here, but player values are fluid, depending on circumstances, and executives don't work in a context-free neutral environment. This isn't an obviously great or obviously horrible trade for either team. If the Reds make the playoffs, Kearns remains injury plagued and expensive, and Lopez ends up a utility player, Krivsky will look great; the opposite is also certainly possible. I'm just interested in the universal negative reaction from all quarters to a deal that makes a fair amount of sense for both sides given all the factors at play.

(For what it's worth I would laughed at this proposal were I in charge of the Reds; but then I'd be a spectacularly awful GM.)
   48. Gaelan Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2098279)
The real mystery for me is how the other general managers didn't get wind of this and offer more than the Nationals. The only logical answer is that some tried and the Reds still went with this deal. Where were the Cubs or the Pirates, they could have come up with bad relief pitchers? Where were the Indians or the Royals? If I'm the GM for one of those times I'm feeling pretty bad about myself right now.

This might also be a bad thing for the Nationals and Bowden long term. Now he thinks that this is what the market offers and he'll avoid making the small trades he needs to make while holding out for another rip off. This clearly happened to Lamar after the Kazmir trade.
   49. mgl Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:30 AM (#2098308)
If I were in charge of the Cards and I knew these two players (Lopez and Kearns) could be had, I would have given them a hell of a lot more than WAS did.

For some reason, CIN has been trying to get rid of Kearns for a long time.

This is one of the worst trades I have heard of recently.

So much for Krivsky being a "genius." Of course, trading for one good player (Arroyo) that is having a career year does not a great GM make.

Kearns has averaged around +5 in UZR consistently since in the majors and around +10 in offensive lwts. In addition, he is above average in baserunning and has an above average arm. On the FA market, he is worth over 7 mil. At his salary and as a pre-FA player, he is gold.

Lopez' UZR at SS has not been horrible, around -5 per year. Even at -10, he has lots of value because of his hitting, which is probably not a fluke. He could probably be turned into a 2B or even 3B if he is that bad defensively at SS. Again, because of his salary status, he is gold as well. Clayton is a replacement player and I don't know much about the other players that CIN got. Ryan Wagner is not good at all, but who cares.
   50. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:35 AM (#2098320)
Majewski is a good setup man with little service time. Bay has virtually no service time and a fine minor league track record.

Majewski is nothing special. For a reliever, pitching in the NL, in a real good pitchers' park, a 3.58 ERA doesn't look special. On top of that, his K/BB ratio isn't even 2-to-1, which is pretty bad for a reliever. He's not even in BP's top 60 for WXRL (Win Expectancy Above Replacement). Really, he's a fungible reliever who, if your scouts are good enough, are available for minor league deals in the offseason.

and Brendan Harris, who has minimal service time and a minor league track record indicating he'd be one of the better pinch hitters in the game.

World's tallest midget. Essentially he's a guy who shouldn't be starting for a team that wants to compete for the playoffs.

Lopez is an execrable shortstop, to the point where a contender probably can't play him there. He had what was almost certainly a peak year last year, and has returned to his career norms this year. I doubt he's even an average player unless he hits like he did last year, which he won't.

Well now, instead of a player who can't field, you'll have a player who can't field OR hit. Best of both worlds, I guess.
   51. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:37 AM (#2098327)
And in post #50, I am, of course, talking about Royce Clayton, Harris.
   52. DosRafaels Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:40 AM (#2098333)
The Reds have been trying to trade Kearns for a long time. There hasn't been much interest because he's fragile, overpaid, and not when healthy isn't exactly a star.

Tim,

From all indications the Indians were willing to give you Jake Westbrook, a better than average starting pitcher worth a lot more than Bill Bray, this offseason straight up for Kearns, and the Reds turned it down. It's one thing to say that they haven't found the right trading partner as they were looking for the moon and the stars for Kearns, but its simply not true that Kearns ddidn't have much value and that their was no interest. And that was before he was able to prove that he was healthy this year. I know that you're trying to justify this trade but the Reds got absolutely hosed. As an Indians fan, this is as close to a Giles for Ricard Rincon deal as I've seen. You just don't trade young, entering their prime everday players for relievers. You're going to get burned every time, and the Reds dealt two.
   53. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:44 AM (#2098340)
Well now, instead of a player who can't field, you'll have a player who can't field OR hit. Best of both worlds, I guess.

And a GIDP machine to boot. If the Reds hate Dunn's strikeouts so much then they're going to be ecstatic about a guy who likes to put the ball in play with runners on.
   54. Greg Pope Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:48 AM (#2098350)
Where were the Cubs or the Pirates, they could have come up with bad relief pitchers?

No kidding. If I'm the Cubs and I get wind of this I'm on the phone in an instant offering Eyre and Howry for Kearns and Lopez. Oh, I'll throw in Dempster, too. Lopez moves to 2nd and Kearns plays somewhere in the OF every day.
   55. spycake Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:57 AM (#2098368)
Kearns has an adequate .281 EQA in a corner outfield spot, is making $3.6 million and is due up for arbitration.

I think Kearns is only making $1.85 million in this, his second arbitration season. He might be in line for $3.6 next year, and we won't be up for free agency until after 2008, I think.
   56. spycake Posted: July 14, 2006 at 02:58 AM (#2098373)
That's all from Cot's Baseball Contracts, by the way.
   57. NTNgod Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:01 AM (#2098379)
I think Kearns is only making $1.85 million in this, his second arbitration season.

That's what ESPN has listed, as well.
   58. tmrchmn Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:03 AM (#2098386)
That number is absolutely correct and shows the perils of bad handwriting. It doesn't essentially change my opinion but having a fact wrong is an ugly thing.

mgl is an awfully smart fellow but there is no way Kearns would earn a $7 million contract as a free agent. Being reliable is the single most undervalued attribute among ballplayers. When you spend serious money and give important roster positions to players with bad injury histories people call you the Chicago Cubs and laugh at you.
   59. AJM Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#2098389)
Even if Kearns and Lopez were overpaid you can trade them in the offseason after you make your playoff run and when you might get more teams interested.
   60. NTNgod Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:09 AM (#2098394)
When you spend serious money and give important roster positions to players with bad injury histories people call you the Chicago Cubs and laugh at you.

Unless your name is J.D. Drew, of course.
:P
   61. Gaelan Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:11 AM (#2098400)
I can count three right fielders in the National League better than Austin Kearns. Lance Berkman, JD Drew, and Bobby Abreu. They all make a hell of a lot more than 7 million dollars. 7 million dollars for Kearns is a steal. The fun part is you don't even have to sign a long term contract to get it because he's in his arbitration years.
   62. DCW3 Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:23 AM (#2098436)
mgl is an awfully smart fellow but there is no way Kearns would earn a $7 million contract as a free agent. Being reliable is the single most undervalued attribute among ballplayers. When you spend serious money and give important roster positions to players with bad injury histories people call you the Chicago Cubs and laugh at you.

Of course, the Cubs may have learned their lesson, shelling out big bucks to a player with a history of extreme durability, Derrek Lee. How's that looking so far? I'm starting to think that "reliability" might be the most overvalued attribute among ballplayers.
   63. Sam M. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:32 AM (#2098461)
They all make a hell of a lot more than 7 million dollars. 7 million dollars for Kearns is a steal. The fun part is you don't even have to sign a long term contract to get it because he's in his arbitration years.

Hold on a second. They got it because they had done a heck of a lot more than Kearns has, so far, and because of when they hit free agency. Cliff Floyd ($6.5M), for a counter-example, isn't making a hell of a lot more than $7M, because he hit the market at the wrong time.

As for arbitration, Kearns wouldn't be in line to get to $7M in 2007, that's for sure -- not from $1.85M this season. I think Spycake makes a pretty good stab at it in # 55 (somewhere south of $4M), and maybe, if he continues to put on to a strong 2006 and an equally good 2007, he'd get to (or near) $7M in 2007 on his way to 2008. But all that depends on staying healthy and productive. If he does that, then he answers all those doubts Tim says GMs have and he'd get a heck of a contract as a FA. But then, that's one heck of an "if."

I certainly buy that the doubts Tim describes make him a dubious buy as a FA at that price (or higher) for a long-term deal. But that is a very different proposition from trading for a guy and keeping him for the next 2+ seasons during his arb years -- a different financial commitment, a different risk proposition for the franchise. His value as a player is commensurate with the salary; his value as a risk for a multi-year commitment certainly might not bel.
   64. Sam M. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:35 AM (#2098469)
if he continues to put on to a strong 2006 and an equally good 2007, he'd get to (or near) $7M in 2007 on his way to 2008.

Duh. What I meant to write there was, "if he continues on to a strong 2006 and an equally good 2007, he'd get to (or near) $7M in 2008 on his way to free agency."
   65. J. Michael Neal Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:37 AM (#2098473)
Where were the Cubs or the Pirates, they could have come up with bad relief pitchers?

Where were the Tigers? They could have come up with good relief pitchers. Kearns may not be left-handed, but he fill a huge hole for them if Magglio would move to left.
   66. Sean McNally Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:44 AM (#2098483)
Here's my question, is Lopez an at least adequate second baseman?

If he is it opens up an intrguing series of options for the Nats...

1) Trade Jose Vidro to a contending team looking for a 2B (Hello, Walt, this is Bodes... wait, I have Omar on Line 2).

2) Move Lopez to 2B.

3) Move Zimmerman off 3B to SS... he was more than passable there in a brief period last year

4) Give current Double-A 3B Kory Casto a shot at the job. Then in the 2006 offseason you can shop for either a fulltime SS or 3B to fill your infield gap.

5) By shedding Vidro bloated salary (and perhaps the salaries of Guillen and Livan), Bodes and Co. might, might be able to retain Alfonso Soriano.

I said to some co-workers today that this is a great time to be a Nats fan... absolutely anything, ANYTHING can happen with this team right now... it's totally out of control.
   67. PanRains Posted: July 14, 2006 at 03:48 AM (#2098485)
Tim, I think you're doing a better job of providing the Reds' thinking than the rest of us, and I have no doubt that you're correct. Ish. I just think that had Krivsky put the word out that Kearns was available or Lopez was availabe and he wanted solid pre-arb relievers, he could have gotten more.

I know that if I'm the Indians, I give you Wickman and Rafael Betancourt (and I love Betancourt) and pay Wick's salary. Not the same, sure, but I would argue that those two are certainly better for this year, and that Betancourt is a better bet for the future than Bray. Hell, I'll do that for one of Lopez or Kearns, especially if you throw in Wagner for my pitching coaches to attempt to get back to where he was.

Howry has been mentioned, as well as Dempster and Eyre. Those guys may be more expensive than what Krivsky wanted, but I'm sure something could have been worked out. Hell, the Cubs could ahve thrown in any number of 2B so that BP could move to SS.

I'd have to believe that some teams in the race even would give up their Middle Relievers to get Lopez or Kearns or both back. Would Seattle give up Putz or Soriano? Would the A's give up Duchscherer?

This is akin to the guy in your fantasy league who trades Ben Roethlisberger for Nick Goings because he needs a RB and he's already got Tom Brady. Meanwhile you're sitting there with Thomas Jones on your bench every week, starting Kyle Boller at QB. It's not so much that it's a bad trade (although it is) as it is that Krivsky could/should have gotten more if he had made it known what he was gonna do.

Hell, if I rip you off less than the other guy, you're better off!
   68. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:02 AM (#2098503)
You know, I think I'd be fine with this trade from the Reds' POV, if I thought the Reds were legit contenders.
If you have a real shot, you always have to take it.

They had a big weakness on their team (their pen) and addressed it by giving up two, valuble, but flawed and overrated players.
Are there any other availbe relivers out there who are as good? as young and cheap?


Of course the problem is that the Reds stink, they're probably the third best team in their division, they have no playoff rotation etc etc etc.
   69. Raskolnikov Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:05 AM (#2098509)
I realize I'm tilting at a windmill here, but player values are fluid, depending on circumstances, and executives don't work in a context-free neutral environment. This isn't an obviously great or obviously horrible trade for either team. If the Reds make the playoffs, Kearns remains injury plagued and expensive, and Lopez ends up a utility player, Krivsky will look great; the opposite is also certainly possible. I'm just interested in the universal negative reaction from all quarters to a deal that makes a fair amount of sense for both sides given all the factors at play.

This is a spin job worthy of Plaschke. Okay, no one is that bad. But in this instance, no amount of spinning would make this an even trade. What you're trying to do is take the worst possible traits of Kearns and Lopez to characterize them, ignoring the qualities that they do bring to the table, imagine the worst possible paths for them, and then state that this will be the set course.

Others have mentioned that Kearns does everything pretty well. Even if you're that hung up on his injury history, he has managed to scrape together 300-500 ABs every year. And if you think 1.6 million (or even 3.6 million) is too much to pay for a corner OFer, then I think you might as well declare to the fans that you don't have the financial resources to compete.

Your criticism of Lopez only makes sense if you have a viable alternate. As others have noted, both Castro and Clayton are considerably worse than Lopez. Middle infielders who can get on base, hit for power, and run don't grow on trees. Intelligent organizations find ways of using these talents. Poor evaluators get hung up on the weak glove.

Even if the Reds make the playoffs, it doesn't mean that this was a good move. Lots of decisions determine a playoff run. But as many in this thread and the others have explained, this trade sets them two steps back towards that goal.

Perhaps other GMs don't value Kearns or Lopez as highly as the BTF factory does, but nearly everyone would agree that relievers at the level of Majewski and Bay are easy to find. Those are the type of players you trade B level prospects for. A half-way intelligent GM wouldn't let the market context determine the value of his trading assets. Krivsky had to know that Kearn/Lopez is worth more than that, and that he should wait or explore other options rather than pull the trigger. Instead he acted at the lowest possible exchange value for his assets. That level of incompetence is Duquettesque.
   70. MM1f Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:07 AM (#2098513)
"
4) Give current Double-A 3B Kory Casto a shot at the job. Then in the 2006 offseason you can shop for either a fulltime SS or 3B to fill your infield gap.
"

For whatever its worth they moved Casto back to LF (he started his pro career there) a few weeks ago. Now of course they could move him back but its worthwhile to point out that hes no longer a 3b for now
   71. mgl Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:09 AM (#2098517)
Kearns would be great for the Indians and they do have a few relievers to spare (Wickman would certainly be one). Yesterday I sent an e-mail to someone from the Indians' front office explaining that I thought that Betancourt was lights out and a lot better than Wickman (who is a mediocre closer at best) and one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball and certainly underused this year (26 IP I think).

My 7 mil fig for Kearns was simply based on his Superlwts projection for a corner outfielder and 2.5 mil per marginal win which is what teams pay on the average for FA.

Krisky is an idiot. Then again, at least half the GM's (and 80% of the managers) are.

You simply don't trade good, pre-FA (let alone pre-arb) players for anything but good, young players in return. And trading anything for Clayton, a replacement player, is a joke.
   72. Sean McNally Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#2098520)
or whatever its worth they moved Casto back to LF (he started his pro career there) a few weeks ago. Now of course they could move him back but its worthwhile to point out that hes no longer a 3b for now


Well then, I stink... I thought I had kept up enough in the boxes that he was still at third.
   73. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:16 AM (#2098524)
what's the difference between Kearns, and guys like Byrnes and Bigbie??
   74. Sean McNally Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:20 AM (#2098528)
what's the difference between Kearns, and guys like Byrnes and Bigbie??


Talent?
   75. PanRains Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#2098529)
what's the difference between Kearns, and guys like Byrnes and Bigbie??


Besides being better, younger, and cheaper? Not much.
   76. tmrchmn Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#2098530)
Plaschke! Duquette! That's harsh rhetoric.

As said, I wouldn't make this deal. However— and this would be my basic premise— there's more to be learned from assuming a minimal level of intelligence on the part of MLB decisionmakers than there is from assuming they're morons who know nothing about how to evaluate players, their finances, or their playoff chances. Your takeaway here can either be that that guy on your corner muttering obscenities would be a better GM than Wayne Krivsky, that certain sorts of players are less valuable on the open market than you might think, or something in between, along the lines of Kearns and Lopez being less valuable than one might think but more valuable than Wayne Krivsky apparently thinks. Whatever players' objective merits might be, thinking inside other peoples' heads and understanding why they might be acting in good faith is usually more valuable than assuming they're missing vital chromosomes. I
   77. greenback Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:31 AM (#2098534)
Whatever players' objective merits might be, thinking inside other peoples' heads and understanding why they might be acting in good faith is usually more valuable than assuming they're missing vital chromosomes.

I agree with this. At the same time this certainly looks like one of those cases where somebody's missing vital chromosomes. If it's not Krivsky, then it's Kearns and Lopez.
   78. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:37 AM (#2098539)
The Reds have a 1-2 of Arroyo and Harang, which is as good as what the Brewers or Cardinals have at the moment, and better than what the Cardinals are going to have this year. Almost no rotation goes deeper than two these days. The Brewers will have the best rotation in the division when it's healthy, but who knows if it's ever going to be. Houston has the best 1-2, obviously, but the rest of their team is pretty flawed. I'm not at all sure that the Reds are worse than St Louis or Milwaukee, though Milwaukee is probably the strongest of the three. The Reds don't hurt themselves too badly (as in so badly they fall out of the race) this year with the trade they just made, but they do hurt themselves. More importantly, they hurt themselves immensely for subsequent years. Giving up two above-average regulars for relief pitchers is unbelievably dumb. Majewski and Bray are most likely to be useless in two years, while Kearns and Lopez will still be quality players. Meanwhile, they're being replaced in the lineup by (probably) more playing time for guys like Freel and Aurillia, who might put up similar production the rest of this season, but will also be useless in two years. And the Reds aren't exactly in a position to be mortgaging the future. Even if they win the WS this year, which is far from impossible, sacrificing the future will have been a stupid move. Giving up a 1 in 8 chance tomorrow for a 1 in 30 chance today is a bad idea even if you win the 1 in 30 spin.
   79. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:40 AM (#2098542)
But yes, sometimes a person's behavior and/or decision-making leaves no possibility but that the person is monsterously stupid. That is often the case with MLB GMs.
   80. mgl Posted: July 14, 2006 at 04:55 AM (#2098548)
Of course if I were part of the Reds organization or I were another GM or aspiring GM, I would ask or love to ask Krivsky what his thought processes were and go from there. Unfortuntely I can't do that. Given the magnitude of how poor a trade this is for the Reds, I think it is a safe bet (not a lock of course) to conclude that Krivsky and his advisors do not know how to properly evaluate and value players. It does not take Rocket Science nor does it take some super-duper traditional scout-based evaluation scheme to figure this one out.

They probably feel that in Clayton they got proven veteran talent in case they make the post-season this year, they do not like Kearns for whatever reasons, they hate Lopez' defense, and they trimmed a little payroll (I think). That is probably their thought process. They have no idea that Clayton is a replacement player (they don't even know what that means), and they don't know that Kearns, albeit when healthy, is 3 wins above replacement.

And yes, "reliability" is an overrated concept (in some circles). It has to be. At best, all the research that has been done in this area, and it should be intuitively obvious as well, indicates that past injury is at best a mild predictor of future injury. Given that some significant portion of all injuries are basically "fluke" (to some degree), whether a player has a history of injury or not simply CANNOT affect his future value all that much.

But yes, sometimes a person's behavior and/or decision-making leaves no possibility but that the person is monsterously stupid. That is often the case with MLB GMs.

Yes, that is one of MGL's rules. We can sometimes infer someone's "IQ" within a certain discipline by observing one one or two of their behaviors or decisions regardless what their thought process was. If I see a blackjack player stand on 16 versus a dealer 7, I don't have to watch any other hands or ask him what his "reasoning" was to know that he is not a card counter or even a basic strategy player (unless he mis-read the dealer's upcard or was employing some costly cameflauge of course).
   81. greenback Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:10 AM (#2098550)
That is often the case with MLB GMs.

This is not a constructive attitude.
   82. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:17 AM (#2098555)
Yup. Another way of looking at it is that this trade was so one-sided that a known moron, Jim Bowden, could immediately see that it would be a good one for him to make. I saw him interviewed about it on the local news, and he was clearly still in slight shock that it had fallen into his lap. Bowden couldn't believe his good fortune.
   83. mgl Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:24 AM (#2098558)
I don't know if this says anything positive about Bowden. He had to give up so little, I don't think this trade should make us think he is any smarter (or less stupid) than we thought prior.

Now the Nats could use a manager who is not stupid (Robinson is one of the worst, IMO).
   84. Milford Blatti Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:25 AM (#2098559)
Where were the Red Sox here? They could have offered Tavares and/or Seanez, both of whom are better than Majewski, for Kearns alone.

And how many other teams are looking for outfield/offense help?

Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Indians.
   85. bibigon Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:29 AM (#2098560)
Here's a question...

How does J. Brent Cox compare to Majewski? I've gotta think the Yankees would have loved to get involved in a Kearns deal, and the Reds probably could have gotten more from them for just Kearns than they got from the Nats for both Kearns and Lopez. Some combination of Cox, cash(so they don't need to deal Lopez and replace him with Clayton), and oh, lets say Gardner, would probably have provided the Reds with a better overall team, as well a younger and more cost controlled team. Along with giving them an interesting prospect in Garder. The Yankees meanwhile don't move Hughes or Tabata, get to plug in Kearns for this year, and get to tell Sheffield to take a hike next year...

I don't know, but even if you're determined to move Kearns, there are teams that are looking for a good fielding, good hitting outfielder, right?
   86. DosRafaels Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:43 AM (#2098570)
Bibigon,

I know that you Yankees fans get a little overzealous sometimes, but J. Brent Cox is a minor league reliever and not even a particularly great one. You would take that trade from ugly to Carrot-Top ugly. The Yankees only seem to have about 5 or 6 players worth realistically trading for and most of them are unlikely to be traded (Wang, Cano, Hughes and Tabata)
   87. Raskolnikov Posted: July 14, 2006 at 05:43 AM (#2098571)
Whatever players' objective merits might be, thinking inside other peoples' heads and understanding why they might be acting in good faith is usually more valuable than assuming they're missing vital chromosomes.

No, I don't think GMs are morons. They, like everyone else, make foolish decisions, but usually decisions which are guided by a web of reasoning very different from the impassioned fan with nothing tangible at stake. I'm sure their point of view is very different from our positions.

But it also doesn't mean that they're above criticism. This deal is lopsided. One side should have gotten much more from the exchange, if they had worked or thought a little harder. The deal has all the elements of a bad trade (not a disaster, but a bad trade nonetheless). And unless more information comes out over the coming days, the public has every reason is give Krivsky the label of fool.
   88. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 14, 2006 at 06:18 AM (#2098586)
I believe part of the equation for the Reds was procuring young Major League relievers without much service time. That precludes guys like J. Brent Cox, Roberto Hernandez, Bob Wickman, Scott Eyre, Julian Tavarez etc...

That isn't a rationalization, but rather an observation...
   89. mgl Posted: July 14, 2006 at 06:39 AM (#2098594)
Middle and even short relievers are the most mis-evaluated commodity in baseball, by far. That is because they pitch so few innings at a time that managers and front office guys are constantly evaluating them based on short-term performance. There are other reasons.

There are literally tons of excellent relievers available for next to nothing. Trading valuable position players for non-star or super-star relievers is the dalliance of a fool.
   90. bibigon Posted: July 14, 2006 at 06:53 AM (#2098599)
I know that you Yankees fans get a little overzealous sometimes, but J. Brent Cox is a minor league reliever and not even a particularly great one.


Worth noting I'm a Red Sox fan, not a Yankee fan. Don't let me stop you from randomly assuming fanboyism or anything however.

It's not that Cox is a great middle reliever, it's that Majewski isn't anything special either. If there was a premium player being sent to the Reds, then it would be another story. Right now, it's a so-so middle reliever, a bad shortstop, a utility player, and a not very interesting prospect.

There are literally tons of excellent relievers available for next to nothing.


Tell that to Theo Epstein.
   91. Gaelan Posted: July 14, 2006 at 06:57 AM (#2098603)
And you don't need any fancy numbers to see the difference in value between someone like Kearns and someone like Majewski. Just count how many guys at their position are better than them.

In the NL there are three rightfielders better than Kearns. I'm not sure how many middle relievers are better than Majewski but the list is a hell of a lot longer than three.
   92. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: July 14, 2006 at 07:03 AM (#2098604)
Bibigon, MLB GMs don't believe in minor-league stats. They don't know that Cox and Majewski are anything alike (I don't know if they are either, mind you); Majewski has the Proven Major Leaguer label, whereas Cox doesn't. If Majewski at his age (26) had spent the first half of this year dominating AAA instead of mucking through the NL, Krivsky wouldn't have traded the player equivilant of a moldy piece of toast for him.
   93. cardsfanboy Posted: July 14, 2006 at 09:24 PM (#2099244)
I can't believe the cardinals weren't able to trade josh hancock for kearns (we'll throw in kinney also) hancock would be better than either reliever that the reds got in this trade and kearns fills an immediate need(of course that would be trading to a divisional rival so that wasn't ever going to happen, but seriously does anyone really believe, even before this trade, that the Reds will finish the season over .500?)
   94. cardsfanboy Posted: July 14, 2006 at 09:34 PM (#2099264)
I'm on the ESPN board and a Reds fan is making the claim that if they would have made this trade at the beginning of the season they would be 5 games up on the cardinals right now...gotta love ESPN posters.

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