Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

MLB’s Five Positive Regression Candidates

Jonah Keri has the audacity to not write about the Hall of Fame or steroids!

The biggest reason for Boston’s worst-to-first season, however, was that the players who failed miserably in 2012 were amazing in 2013. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey went from off years, lousy years, or entirely missed years to huge performances during the team’s ride to rings. Everything that could have gone wrong two years ago did, but then everything that could have gone right last year did, too…

From 2010 to 2012, Castro’s first three big league seasons, only five other shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Derek Jeter) were more productive offensively on a park-adjusted basis. Castro was just 22 at the time, and he’d posted a .297/.336/.425 line over his first three seasons. While not all players develop at the same rate, Castro looked poised to improve over the course of the deal if he joined the majority of baseball players who peak in their mid-to-late twenties.

That’s what makes me doubt that Castro’s disastrous 2013 season has much predictive value

Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 08, 2014 at 11:48 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: 2014, angels, blue jays, brewers, cubs, nationals

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 08, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4633570)
Numerous posters here will surely quit griping about Theo, when they read this and find out the Cub's rebuilding plan is well on track and last year was a mere aberration, and they are lock for a winning season next year led by guaranteed all-stars Castro, Rizzo, and Samardzija.

Because it's unpossible that the positive regression from one part of your roster can be offset by negative regressions elsewhere.
   2. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4633867)
The young Cubs player who impressed me the most last season was Junior Lake.
   3. madvillain Posted: January 08, 2014 at 09:11 PM (#4634193)
I think looking at the BABIP data without at least comparing it to the the xBABIB projection is a lazy way to look for bounce back candidates. Keri is a fine writer but sometimes guys just aren't unlucky, they just didn't hit the ball hard.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
cardsfanboy
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2016 June 27: Republican comeback after eight years? Yeah, on the baseball diamond
(988 - 3:59pm, Jun 29)
Last: Orange Julius Is the New Black

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 6-29-16
(36 - 3:58pm, Jun 29)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogOT: NBA Playoffs Thread 2016
(6240 - 3:50pm, Jun 29)
Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher

Sox TherapyIs It Time To Panic?
(5 - 3:44pm, Jun 29)
Last: SY Ruined School Lunches!

NewsblogOT: 2016 Summer Soccer Thread
(1181 - 3:29pm, Jun 29)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogJose Reyes must demonstrate sincere remorse in return to Mets - NY Daily News
(166 - 3:24pm, Jun 29)
Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

NewsblogTop prospect Aaron Judge making case to be on the New York Yankees - Yankees Blog- ESPN
(6 - 3:19pm, Jun 29)
Last: Captain Supporter

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 6-29-2016
(23 - 3:18pm, Jun 29)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogSABR 46 Convention in Miami
(24 - 3:18pm, Jun 29)
Last: There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogReport: Red Sox, Jason Groome Far Apart In Contract Negotiations « CBS Boston
(36 - 2:51pm, Jun 29)
Last: Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 6-28-2016
(16 - 1:54pm, Jun 29)
Last: Hank G.

NewsblogCubs use 3 different pitchers as OFs en route to 15-inning win
(8 - 1:24pm, Jun 29)
Last: There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerow

NewsblogThe Francisco Lindor Effect Is Ridiculous | FanGraphs Baseball
(9 - 12:09pm, Jun 29)
Last: Sonny Gray's Got a Yakker for Your Culo

Gonfalon CubsSlumping and Busting
(27 - 12:04pm, Jun 29)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogColabello wants to clear his name
(8 - 11:44am, Jun 29)
Last: Booey

Page rendered in 0.1241 seconds
47 querie(s) executed