Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

MLB’s Five Positive Regression Candidates

Jonah Keri has the audacity to not write about the Hall of Fame or steroids!

The biggest reason for Boston’s worst-to-first season, however, was that the players who failed miserably in 2012 were amazing in 2013. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey went from off years, lousy years, or entirely missed years to huge performances during the team’s ride to rings. Everything that could have gone wrong two years ago did, but then everything that could have gone right last year did, too…

From 2010 to 2012, Castro’s first three big league seasons, only five other shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Derek Jeter) were more productive offensively on a park-adjusted basis. Castro was just 22 at the time, and he’d posted a .297/.336/.425 line over his first three seasons. While not all players develop at the same rate, Castro looked poised to improve over the course of the deal if he joined the majority of baseball players who peak in their mid-to-late twenties.

That’s what makes me doubt that Castro’s disastrous 2013 season has much predictive value

Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 08, 2014 at 11:48 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: 2014, angels, blue jays, brewers, cubs, nationals

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 08, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4633570)
Numerous posters here will surely quit griping about Theo, when they read this and find out the Cub's rebuilding plan is well on track and last year was a mere aberration, and they are lock for a winning season next year led by guaranteed all-stars Castro, Rizzo, and Samardzija.

Because it's unpossible that the positive regression from one part of your roster can be offset by negative regressions elsewhere.
   2. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4633867)
The young Cubs player who impressed me the most last season was Junior Lake.
   3. madvillain Posted: January 08, 2014 at 09:11 PM (#4634193)
I think looking at the BABIP data without at least comparing it to the the xBABIB projection is a lazy way to look for bounce back candidates. Keri is a fine writer but sometimes guys just aren't unlucky, they just didn't hit the ball hard.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
The Piehole of David Wells
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogPictures of New Ballpark Food Items « Ben's Biz Blog
(22 - 2:22am, Mar 06)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogMinor's absence opens opportunities for Stults | braves.com
(3 - 2:07am, Mar 06)
Last: boteman

Newsblog'Boring' Cardinals know how to win
(13 - 1:57am, Mar 06)
Last: boteman

NewsblogOTP - March 2015: You’re out, tobacco: Bill would ban products at all California baseball venues
(713 - 1:50am, Mar 06)
Last: zenbitz

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - March 2015
(310 - 1:14am, Mar 06)
Last: Fourth True Outcome

NewsblogArbitrator will decide whether Josh Hamilton should enter rehab - ESPN Los Angeles
(70 - 12:02am, Mar 06)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogPositive Howard looking forward, not behind
(34 - 11:53pm, Mar 05)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogJoe Posnanski's Top 100 Players: No. 40: Eddie Collins
(44 - 11:49pm, Mar 05)
Last: Booey

NewsblogBryan Price wants Reds to run like Pete Rose
(43 - 11:10pm, Mar 05)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogEthier must prove his worth in crowded outfield | MLB.com
(10 - 11:02pm, Mar 05)
Last: Walt Davis

Newsblog‘I thought the bat looked slow': Scouts on A-Rod | New York Post
(26 - 10:59pm, Mar 05)
Last: bbmck

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1902 Ballot
(21 - 10:45pm, Mar 05)
Last: lieiam

NewsblogDavid Wright’s stand is how Mets foster Yankees-like intensity | New York Post
(8 - 10:12pm, Mar 05)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogUPDATE: X-rays confirm fractured left forearm for Giants' Hunter Pence, out 6-8 weeks - Giants Extra
(6 - 10:10pm, Mar 05)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(1592 - 9:11pm, Mar 05)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

Page rendered in 0.1733 seconds
48 querie(s) executed