Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

MLB’s Five Positive Regression Candidates

Jonah Keri has the audacity to not write about the Hall of Fame or steroids!

The biggest reason for Boston’s worst-to-first season, however, was that the players who failed miserably in 2012 were amazing in 2013. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey went from off years, lousy years, or entirely missed years to huge performances during the team’s ride to rings. Everything that could have gone wrong two years ago did, but then everything that could have gone right last year did, too…

From 2010 to 2012, Castro’s first three big league seasons, only five other shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Derek Jeter) were more productive offensively on a park-adjusted basis. Castro was just 22 at the time, and he’d posted a .297/.336/.425 line over his first three seasons. While not all players develop at the same rate, Castro looked poised to improve over the course of the deal if he joined the majority of baseball players who peak in their mid-to-late twenties.

That’s what makes me doubt that Castro’s disastrous 2013 season has much predictive value

Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 08, 2014 at 12:48 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: 2014, angels, blue jays, brewers, cubs, nationals

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:13 PM (#4633570)
Numerous posters here will surely quit griping about Theo, when they read this and find out the Cub's rebuilding plan is well on track and last year was a mere aberration, and they are lock for a winning season next year led by guaranteed all-stars Castro, Rizzo, and Samardzija.

Because it's unpossible that the positive regression from one part of your roster can be offset by negative regressions elsewhere.
   2. Morph Posted: January 08, 2014 at 04:45 PM (#4633867)
The young Cubs player who impressed me the most last season was Junior Lake.
   3. madvillain Posted: January 08, 2014 at 10:11 PM (#4634193)
I think looking at the BABIP data without at least comparing it to the the xBABIB projection is a lazy way to look for bounce back candidates. Keri is a fine writer but sometimes guys just aren't unlucky, they just didn't hit the ball hard.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Adam S
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(7991 - 10:37am, Sep 02)
Last: PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth)

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(76 - 10:36am, Sep 02)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogPhoto of the day: Bill Murray, indy league ticket-taker
(114 - 10:36am, Sep 02)
Last: Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr.

NewsblogOT August 2014:  Wrassle Mania I
(93 - 10:32am, Sep 02)
Last: Rowland Office Supplies

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(990 - 10:31am, Sep 02)
Last: JuanGone..except1game

NewsblogBPP: Why do people still think Jack Morris pitched to the score?
(1 - 10:28am, Sep 02)
Last: PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth)

NewsblogBlue Jays Acquire Mayberry Jr.
(14 - 10:26am, Sep 02)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - September 2014
(8 - 10:23am, Sep 02)
Last: My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-2-2014
(9 - 10:01am, Sep 02)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogHBT: Jorge Soler with an extra-base hit in each of his first five games
(4 - 9:44am, Sep 02)
Last: salvomania

NewsblogTrevor Hoffman's Hall of Fame induction seems inevitable
(15 - 9:43am, Sep 02)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogNo-hitter! Four Phillies pitchers combine to blank the Braves
(18 - 9:34am, Sep 02)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogOT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(6359 - 9:32am, Sep 02)
Last: Ron J2

NewsblogAstros Fire Bo Porter
(60 - 9:12am, Sep 02)
Last: Ron J2

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1957 Ballot
(11 - 8:43am, Sep 02)
Last: Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge

Page rendered in 0.1903 seconds
53 querie(s) executed