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Wednesday, January 08, 2014

MLB’s Five Positive Regression Candidates

Jonah Keri has the audacity to not write about the Hall of Fame or steroids!

The biggest reason for Boston’s worst-to-first season, however, was that the players who failed miserably in 2012 were amazing in 2013. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey went from off years, lousy years, or entirely missed years to huge performances during the team’s ride to rings. Everything that could have gone wrong two years ago did, but then everything that could have gone right last year did, too…

From 2010 to 2012, Castro’s first three big league seasons, only five other shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Derek Jeter) were more productive offensively on a park-adjusted basis. Castro was just 22 at the time, and he’d posted a .297/.336/.425 line over his first three seasons. While not all players develop at the same rate, Castro looked poised to improve over the course of the deal if he joined the majority of baseball players who peak in their mid-to-late twenties.

That’s what makes me doubt that Castro’s disastrous 2013 season has much predictive value

Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 08, 2014 at 12:48 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: 2014, angels, blue jays, brewers, cubs, nationals

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:13 PM (#4633570)
Numerous posters here will surely quit griping about Theo, when they read this and find out the Cub's rebuilding plan is well on track and last year was a mere aberration, and they are lock for a winning season next year led by guaranteed all-stars Castro, Rizzo, and Samardzija.

Because it's unpossible that the positive regression from one part of your roster can be offset by negative regressions elsewhere.
   2. Morph Posted: January 08, 2014 at 04:45 PM (#4633867)
The young Cubs player who impressed me the most last season was Junior Lake.
   3. madvillain Posted: January 08, 2014 at 10:11 PM (#4634193)
I think looking at the BABIP data without at least comparing it to the the xBABIB projection is a lazy way to look for bounce back candidates. Keri is a fine writer but sometimes guys just aren't unlucky, they just didn't hit the ball hard.

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