Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, January 08, 2014

MLB’s Five Positive Regression Candidates

Jonah Keri has the audacity to not write about the Hall of Fame or steroids!

The biggest reason for Boston’s worst-to-first season, however, was that the players who failed miserably in 2012 were amazing in 2013. David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey went from off years, lousy years, or entirely missed years to huge performances during the team’s ride to rings. Everything that could have gone wrong two years ago did, but then everything that could have gone right last year did, too…

From 2010 to 2012, Castro’s first three big league seasons, only five other shortstops (Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Derek Jeter) were more productive offensively on a park-adjusted basis. Castro was just 22 at the time, and he’d posted a .297/.336/.425 line over his first three seasons. While not all players develop at the same rate, Castro looked poised to improve over the course of the deal if he joined the majority of baseball players who peak in their mid-to-late twenties.

That’s what makes me doubt that Castro’s disastrous 2013 season has much predictive value

Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 08, 2014 at 11:48 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: 2014, angels, blue jays, brewers, cubs, nationals

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 08, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4633570)
Numerous posters here will surely quit griping about Theo, when they read this and find out the Cub's rebuilding plan is well on track and last year was a mere aberration, and they are lock for a winning season next year led by guaranteed all-stars Castro, Rizzo, and Samardzija.

Because it's unpossible that the positive regression from one part of your roster can be offset by negative regressions elsewhere.
   2. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4633867)
The young Cubs player who impressed me the most last season was Junior Lake.
   3. madvillain Posted: January 08, 2014 at 09:11 PM (#4634193)
I think looking at the BABIP data without at least comparing it to the the xBABIB projection is a lazy way to look for bounce back candidates. Keri is a fine writer but sometimes guys just aren't unlucky, they just didn't hit the ball hard.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF


Thanks to
for his generous support.


You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogHow Pittsburgh Pirates built playoff roster |
(9 - 8:16pm, Oct 06)
Last: Walt Davis

(107 - 8:16pm, Oct 06)
Last: zack

NewsblogAverage Time of 9-Inning MLB Game Drops 6 Minutes to 2:56 - The New York Times
(45 - 8:15pm, Oct 06)
Last: dejarouehg

NewsblogOT: NBA Pre-Season Thread
(177 - 8:12pm, Oct 06)
Last: NJ in DC (Now with Wife!)

NewsblogBernanke: More execs should have gone to jail for causing Great Recession
(52 - 8:01pm, Oct 06)
Last: dlf

NewsblogAt 21, Cubs shortstop Addison Russell is a true student of the game - Chicago Tribune
(26 - 7:57pm, Oct 06)
Last: Andere Richtingen

NewsblogIchiro Suzuki Aiming at Age 50
(157 - 7:50pm, Oct 06)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogOTP - October 2015: Political and baseball desperation
(1174 - 7:31pm, Oct 06)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-6-2015
(12 - 7:25pm, Oct 06)
Last: RMc is organizationalwide!

NewsblogOT: Soccer October 2015
(119 - 7:08pm, Oct 06)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogMarlins express interest in Bowa as Phils make coaching changes
(49 - 6:19pm, Oct 06)
Last: Omineca Greg

NewsblogNYT - Scandal Erupts in Unregulated World of Fantasy Sports
(72 - 6:03pm, Oct 06)
Last: Walt Davis

Newsblog2016 HallOf Fame Pre-Integration Candidates Announced
(81 - 6:00pm, Oct 06)
Last: ajnrules

NewsblogA’s Billy Beane, Bob Melvin believe quick turnaround is possible - San Francisco Chronicle
(3 - 5:51pm, Oct 06)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogAlex Rodriguez embraces the underdog role, but Dallas Keuchel isn't buying it | Newsday
(15 - 5:28pm, Oct 06)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.1659 seconds
47 querie(s) executed