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Thursday, July 27, 2017

MLBTR: Rays To Acquire Lucas Duda

The Duda now abides in St. Pete.

Though the Rays have their own breakout offensive performer at first in Logan Morrison, the team has room for another big left-handed bat. With outfielder Colby Rasmus hanging up his spikes mid-way through the year, the Rays could utilize Corey Dickerson in the outfield to allow Duda to step in at DH.

Smith, 23, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft. He made his way to the Rays as the player to be named later in the winter deal that sent Mikie Mahtook to the Tigers. It seems he could be a contributor in New York as soon as the present season, though the Mets likely won’t be in a rush to add him to the 40-man roster.

With a big fastball and quality curve, Smith looks as if he could turn into a steady and affordable MLB relief asset. The MLB.com prospect team ranked him 30th on the Tampa Bay farm, noting that his upside is as a setup arm. Smith threw 28 2/3 innings of 2.20 ERA ball at the High-A level upon landing with the Rays organization and recently ascended to Triple-A after a quick stop at the penultimate level of the minors.

Renegade (((JE))) Posted: July 27, 2017 at 05:59 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: lucas duda, mets, rays, trade, trade deadline

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 27, 2017 at 06:41 PM (#5501131)
This makes me sad for the most part. Duda has been a good hitter for the Mets, especially after they made him the everyday first baseman. I was hoping he would stick around long enough to become the Mets all-time leader in homers as a first baseman, (Duda is tied with Kingman for 2nd place, Delgado's first).

Does this mean the Mets think Dominic Smith is ready to be the everyday first baseman, or at least the left-sided portion of the platoon?

The Mets have a ton of money coming of the books this offseason, more now that Duda is gone.

I will miss Duda. Doesn't seem like much of a return, but that seems to be the market for hitters right now.
   2. Adam Starblind Posted: July 27, 2017 at 06:59 PM (#5501148)
A guy who looks like a solid reliever seems like a decent return for 2 months of Duda.
   3. Khrushin it bro Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:05 PM (#5501152)
That return is a bit of a Dud
   4. Lassus Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:05 PM (#5501153)
Too streaky and drove me nuts and blew the World Series. I won't miss him and no, it's not close to a sabermetric or even data-related argument.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:07 PM (#5501154)
A guy who looks like a solid reliever seems like a decent return for 2 months of Duda.

Really? A RP who was #30 prospect for the Rays?
   6. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:10 PM (#5501157)
Never had any affection from Duda (I was on Team Ike), but I don't get a true 120-130 OPS+ player going for a "relief prospect."
   7. Adam Starblind Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:24 PM (#5501164)
Fair enough, but it's entirely possible that was the best Sandy could get. No reason to hold onto him.
   8. billyshears Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:30 PM (#5501169)
A close to the majors relief prospect who throws 98 with good MLB stats seems pretty fair for half of a season of an average 1b.
   9. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:47 PM (#5501172)
Really? A RP who was #30 prospect for the Rays?
That was his ranking before the season started. The guy's performed very well this year.
   10. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 27, 2017 at 07:57 PM (#5501179)
What is the projected lineup as of now for 2018?

C: d'Arnaud/Rivera/Plawecki
1B: Dom Smith/Flores platoon?
2b: Is it Reyes? Do they keep Cabrera? Can't see them Walker.
3b: Is it Flores? Is it Cabrera?
SS: Rosario
LF: Cespedes
RF: Conforto
CF: Don't think we can rely on Lagares or Nimmo to be good or healthy enough.

There's a lot of unknowns right now.
   11. APNY Posted: July 27, 2017 at 08:00 PM (#5501181)
That was his ranking before the season started. The guy's performed very well this year.

All the top 30's were updated last week, Smith in #30. He wasn't in the Rays system pre-season. He's pitched 4 innings above A ball and his A ball numbers weren't really attention grabbing for a relief prospect. He doesn't get many ks.
   12. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2017 at 08:02 PM (#5501183)
There's a lot of unknowns right now.

A lot of shitty players too. The Mets had a nice little run there but unless the starting pitching roars back all of a sudden, this team goes nowhere fast.
   13. Banta Posted: July 27, 2017 at 08:03 PM (#5501184)
Return for Duda is probably close to fair, but unexciting. A toolsy Single-A outfielder who is probably four years away would be more interesting, but probably less of a return on average.

Who was a better hitter at the time the Mets traded him, Duda or Beltran? I'm thinking it's closer than one would think, especially since no one was trading Wheeler for Beltran's defense/baserunning at that point. Not that any of that means anything, but yeah. A relief prospect. Epic.

I enjoyed Duda. He ended up reaching about what I originally thought his ceiling was, so I respect that and wish him well.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 27, 2017 at 08:36 PM (#5501208)
The market for rental hitters suuuuuuuucks.
   15. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 27, 2017 at 09:04 PM (#5501220)
I think Beltran was clearly a better hitter than Duda. Better recent past and having an excellent year at the plate (151 OPS+ vs 126 for Duda) when traded. And while he no longer resembled peak Beltran, he still provided a ton more defensive and baserunning value than Duda does. Still, there's a chasm between Wheeler and Smith. I think that's mostly just a difference in the markets.

This team has the wrong group of players to be trading this deadline, but really have to trade them all anyway. It's frustrating. Hopefully Reed can bring back something interesting.

Duda was fantastic when locked in, and a huge part of the 2015 run. He will be missed.
   16. asinwreck Posted: July 27, 2017 at 09:15 PM (#5501224)
I'm good with Sandy Alderson and his team identifying which minor leaguers to get for his veterans.
   17. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 27, 2017 at 09:38 PM (#5501232)
Does this mean the Mets think Dominic Smith is ready to be the everyday first baseman, or at least the left-sided portion of the platoon?
It's almost Tebow Time.
   18. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 27, 2017 at 09:50 PM (#5501237)
A lot of shitty players too. The Mets had a nice little run there but unless the starting pitching roars back all of a sudden, this team goes nowhere fast.

Well, the Mets do have a ton of money to spend on free agents. They should be players in free agency.
   19. PreservedFish Posted: July 27, 2017 at 10:10 PM (#5501240)
I'm on record as calling Dominic Smith the next Rico Brogna, but heck, why not call him up? He's as ready as he's gonna be.
   20. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 27, 2017 at 10:17 PM (#5501243)
Hey, Rico Brogna saved 100 runs a year with his glove.
   21. Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™ Posted: July 27, 2017 at 10:20 PM (#5501244)
Sounds like a fair return to me--Smith might not be anything exciting, but Duda's a good but not great hitting 1B whose value is all in his bat, is past 30 and who'll be a free agent at year's end. I'm not sure how that's worth more than a guy with a fair shot at being a useful bullpen arm at league minimum in the near future with years of team control.

That said, genuine question here: Lassus, my memory's a little hazy, but how do you figure Duda "blew the World Series"? I remember Hosmer's mad dash, but a bunch of other stuff led to that point (Familia kind of melted down, right?), and the Mets would've still had to win two straight on the road had they won game 5. Am I forgetting something important?

Edit: Ok, I was forgetting it went extras, and that Niese got tattooed in the 12th after the Hosmer play tied it in the 9th. Fair enough, but the Mets still would've had a hill to climb.
   22. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 27, 2017 at 10:20 PM (#5501245)
Well, the Mets do have a ton of money to spend on free agents. They should be players in free agency.

But what is there to buy? It's not a great FA class, particularly in terms of bats. JD Martinez is the best available, but he's not a good fit. Lorenzo Cain would be a nice. So would Moustakas, but neither is the kind of guy I'd want to make a long-term commitment to and they're both likely going to be seeking one. It drops off quickly from there. Upgrades to be had at C (Lucroy) or MI (Cozart), but nothing significant. This team is going to need healthy and effective starting pitching.

I'm on record as calling Dominic Smith the next Rico Brogna, but heck, why not call him up? He's as ready as he's gonna be.

Agree. He's got the draft/scouting pedigree, and he's done just well enough throughout the minors to convince me he needs to be given a shot, but not nearly well enough to make me feel too comfortable doing it. So call him up now and give him 2 months of low leverage audition time.
   23. Lassus Posted: July 27, 2017 at 10:49 PM (#5501277)
That said, genuine question here: Lassus, my memory's a little hazy, but how do you figure Duda "blew the World Series"?

I am not always agreed with on this point, but a decent - not great, DECENT - throw from Duda gets Hosmer out. Duda blew that throw and instead of a win the game was tied. Game lost, air gone from sails and series. To me, the series was lost on that play. (Yes, I am aware a lot more baseball followed.)
   24. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2017 at 11:43 PM (#5501308)
A decent throw gets Hosmer. Hosmer and Duda (mostly) agree:

EH: When I took off running, I thought it would take a perfect throw to get me. But after looking at the replays [Hosmer laughs], the throw could have been up or down, or to the side, and a good throw would have got me.

LD: I was a little bit surprised that he went. Was that necessarily a good baserunning play? I don't think so. But they had some room to play with, being ahead in the series. If I had made a good throw to the plate, he would have looked like a moron.

There used to be a great Statcast video of the play on mlb.com but it won't load for me at the moment ... others luck may vary, try a search for "statcast hosmer dash."
   25. Leroy Kincaid Posted: July 28, 2017 at 06:43 AM (#5501333)
Too streaky and drove me nuts and blew the World Series. I won't miss him and no, it's not close to a sabermetric or even data-related argument.


Or reasonable, logical, sensible, intelligent...
   26. formerly dp Posted: July 28, 2017 at 08:04 AM (#5501345)
I'll miss Duda. I don't think many here believed he should have gotten the long-term gig over Ike Davis way back, but that ended up being the right call, and he gave the Mets more than expected. I could see him hitting 40 homers for someone next year.
   27. Lassus Posted: July 28, 2017 at 08:23 AM (#5501352)
I could see him hitting 40 homers for someone next year.

I suppose that's possible, and I certainly wish him success; but I cannot see him hitting 40 HR for anybody. Maybe in Korea.


Or reasonable, logical, sensible, intelligent...

I didn't say it was, but the reasonable, logical, sensible, and intelligent people aren't having much trouble with this move either, so.
   28. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 28, 2017 at 08:40 AM (#5501369)
I could see him hitting 40 homers for someone next year.

I suppose that's possible, and I certainly wish him success; but I cannot see him hitting 40 HR for anybody. Maybe in Korea.


I doubt it too. I like Duda, but the man is 31 and will not age well. He hasn't been able to stay healthy the last 2 years.
   29. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: July 28, 2017 at 09:45 AM (#5501400)
If his next team employs him as a full-time DH, he'll have a reasonably good chance at staying healthy for an entire season.
   30. Captain Supporter Posted: July 28, 2017 at 10:19 AM (#5501427)
This makes me sad for the most part. Duda has been a good hitter for the Mets, especially after they made him the everyday first baseman.


Very true, and its just as true that Met fans in general spent more time booing Duda than they did appreciating him.

Of course, there was that Baba Booey ish throw.
   31. formerly dp Posted: July 28, 2017 at 12:07 PM (#5501514)
I suppose that's possible, and I certainly wish him success; but I cannot see him hitting 40 HR for anybody. Maybe in Korea.

I doubt it too. I like Duda, but the man is 31 and will not age well. He hasn't been able to stay healthy the last 2 years.

I didn't say I'm betting my house on it, just that I could see it happening. If he stayed healthy as the DH for Texas, and mixed in a little juiced ball effect, it would be possible. This is probably not supported by evidence, but it seems like every time Duda got locked it for the Mets, he was hit with some nagging injury.

Remember when they thought he could play LF? Good times.
   32. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: July 28, 2017 at 12:31 PM (#5501537)
Remember when they thought he could play LF? Good times.

I don't think anyone ever thought he could play LF, even the manager/GM who put him there.

Honestly, I would not have been against keeping Duda and offering him arbitration. I am surprised that Duda does not appear to have been as well-liked by Met fans here as I would have thought.
   33. formerly dp Posted: July 28, 2017 at 01:13 PM (#5501565)
Honestly, I would not have been against keeping Duda and offering him arbitration.

Yeah, the Mets are in a weird spot where they should have money, but without a lot to spend it on. Good bet that Duda will outperform Smith in 2018, but he'll cost more--the question is where are they going to spend that savings? The infield is likely to be Smith, Walker, Rosario, and Rivera/Flores. Conforto and Cespedes are locked for 2/3 of the OF. Can Tebow play center? Or Nimmo/Lagares, if they're ever healthy simultaneously...

So basically, they can spend to upgrade C, CF (or RF if they think Conforto can swing center), 3B, before starting to address whatever weaknesses they have in the pitching staff.
   34. Lassus Posted: July 28, 2017 at 01:16 PM (#5501568)
Would they dare long-game it out to the next year?
   35. formerly dp Posted: July 28, 2017 at 01:17 PM (#5501569)
Oh, and I'm officially in the "Rosario needs to be in the majors yesterday" camp. Reyes cost them a game with his glove on Wednesday--time to get Rosario's glove on the field, and take some of the stress off the pitchers' arms.
   36. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 28, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5501586)
Honestly, I would not have been against keeping Duda and offering him arbitration.

If the Mets has kept him, the would have/ could have
1) Been out the money for the rest of the season $3 million?
2) Would have offered arb. If they got him for another year, that would have been ok by me. I would not want to sign him long term. Cost- $10 million?
3) If he signed elsewhere, would they get the sandwich pick? If so, they would have had to sign the pick. $1 million? Would the pick be better than a relief pitcher in AA?
   37. Darren Posted: July 28, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5501589)
If this was the price for Duda, I would have liked the Red Sox to get him. They could use his bat at 1B.
   38. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: July 28, 2017 at 02:14 PM (#5501610)
It's almost Tebow Time.

Don't laugh; the guy had three hits the other day and raised his average to .315. (I know he's still not a real prospect, but...is it possible he might actually become one?)
   39. formerly dp Posted: July 28, 2017 at 02:55 PM (#5501639)
Don't laugh; the guy had three hits the other day and raised his average to .315. (I know he's still not a real prospect, but...is it possible he might actually become one?)
Before he got promoted, I tried to go see him play at the local ballpark. Entire series was sold out. The marketing stunt worked amazingly well; everything else is gravy.
   40. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 28, 2017 at 03:16 PM (#5501654)
It's almost Tebow Time.


If they waste a 40-man spot on an attendance gimmick, I will almost immediately become "Red Sox Fan Charlie."
   41. Leroy Kincaid Posted: July 28, 2017 at 04:37 PM (#5501728)
I didn't say it was, but the reasonable, logical, sensible, and intelligent people aren't having much trouble with this move either, so.


Yeah, I was just being a wisenheimer about one play determining a series. Of course you may have been referring to more than just the throw, and if so, I provisionally take it back.
   42. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 28, 2017 at 04:56 PM (#5501749)
Honestly, I would not have been against keeping Duda and offering him arbitration. I am surprised that Duda does not appear to have been as well-liked by Met fans here as I would have thought.

While I too was Team Ike, I've been a big fan of Duda ever since, and I think he's been well liked, if also severely underrated, by the majority of Mets fans. I don't think support for trading him correlates with dislike for him as a Met.

I'd have been fine with keeping him around. Definitely have to expect him to outproduce Smith next year and probably the year after that too. But I don't expect Alderson to give a multi-year contract to Duda with the cheap in-house alternative there. So I supported the idea of getting whatever you can for him, even if it's just a live arm like the one they got. If they can resign him in the offseason on a one or two year deal, I'll be thrilled.
   43. Walt Davis Posted: July 28, 2017 at 07:04 PM (#5501849)
Duda will be an FA and there is no arbitration for FAs anymore. They could make him a QO or not. The QO next year will be something like $18 M and the Mets weren't gonna offer that. Even if they did and he foolishly passed on it, nobody's offering him a $50 M contract which means the Mets would end up getting virtually nothing.

Of course they could have offered him an extension but they can also just try to re-sign him this offseason if they want him back.

As to who to spend their money on, it's obvious -- Eric Hosmer! :-)
   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 28, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5501947)
If this was the price for Duda, I would have liked the Red Sox to get him. They could use his bat at 1B.

Concur for the Yankees.
   45. Howie Menckel Posted: July 28, 2017 at 10:43 PM (#5502036)
Duda's 125 HR are 7th most in Mets history

8th 9th 10th were THundley, McReynolds, and Alfonzo
and was barely ahead of them - and 24 back of 6th Beltran

so this was Lucas's fate anyway
   46. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 28, 2017 at 11:35 PM (#5502067)
Duda leaves as the Mets all-time record holder in HBPs (48).

He's also near the top in least defensive value (5th according to BBRef, 2nd according to Fangraphs, behind Kranepool in less than half the PAs), despite spending most of his time as a perfectly cromulent 1B.
   47. formerly dp Posted: July 29, 2017 at 12:37 AM (#5502079)
Mets snag Ramos. Didn't see that one coming.

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