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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Gregorius… yeah… Sipp, Anderson, hey I remember Anderson… WHUHUH?? The Diamondbacks announced that they have acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius, left-handed pitcher Tony Sipp, and first baseman Lars Anderson from the Indians in exchange for right-handed pitchers Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw. The Reds are receiving Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald in the swap.
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I can see the issues with control, but he still showed he can strike out big leaguers. You would have to think that a 21 year old who was talented enough to move that quickly from college to the pros could figure out how to keep the walks down to a respectable level.
Every time I see his name, I wonder if Didi Gregorius is related to Sarah Gregorius (he's probably not).
Reverend Gregorius is the evil guy married to the protagonist's love in the classic Swedish novel Doctor Glas
This is seriously the LOL off-season, isn't it?
He might get mixed up on which calendar to use.
*standing ovation*
From an old Fangraphs article:
Was that Ken Kendrick, same guy from your link #24 who called out Bauer?
It doesn't help your GM when the owner keeps flapping his mouth to the press and calling out players as lazy malcontent bums.
I didn't expect wonders from Towers but expected him to hover around average to slightly below, however add in owners who are meddlers and baseball dumb is a recipe for the current roster mess.
Alternately one might conclude that the rest of the baseball world does not view them as top prospects like those of us outside the baseball world do, given that none of the rest of the baseball world was willing to top the offers the Dbacks and Royals got.
For undervalued relievers, yes. For position players, not so much.
Again, I sometimes agree with Cameron, sometimes disagree, etc., but I don't get his logic about this at all. I think he has some kind of personal revulsion for Bauer.
Of course, there’s also a pretty good chance that Bauer will eventually figure out how to throw more strikes, and turning into a Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson, or Chad Billingsley in the long term would still make this a great trade for an Indians team that has time to wait for him to develop. But, we should at least note that pitchers with these kinds of early career skillsets don’t always figure out how to throw strikes, and they often need a few more years of struggles before they make the necessary adjustments. It’s a risk worth taking for the Indians, but for Arizona, the decision to trade Bauer away isn’t totally unjustified.
That's his closing argument and I would counter that there is just as much, if not more risk, that Gregorius doesn't turn out to be as good as Cliff Pennington.
He's also at least partially responsible for one of the most hilarious #1 picks of all time.
IIRC, they wanted to take Drew but the team wouldn't pay for him.
Right, which is why I'm only giving him partial blame. Not taking the most talented guy for financial reasons doesn't mean you have to take Matt Bush instead.
A bit off topic, but related somewhat, Nick Piecoro recently ruminated on the Dbacks' (or Kevin Towers's/Kirk Gibson's) player profile:
This trade, and several other Towers trades and, maybe, the 2004 Matt Bush pick, seem very much aligned with what Nick wrote about.
Drew was gone anyway on the $10 million mutual option. The trade saved Arizona some money.
By the time they have a team of Kirk Gibson players Jason Giambi will be their manager...
DING DING DING
This seems like a recipe for having a team where nobody can hit worth a damn.
As for strikeouts for hitters, while they are obviously not a good thing, they do tend to have significant correlation with several things that are good things. Cutting down on strikeouts is great, but if you cut down on home runs and walks at the same time, you've probably at best achieved nothing and at worst significantly harmed your team.
I'm pretty sure this is precisely what made Billy Beane a saber darling (per Michael Lewis' telling, anyway.)
I was thinking Matt Stairs.
This too is nothing new and is a philosophy employed by every team. Most guys start out as middle of the field players then move down the spectrum as they prove they can't handle it defensively. That's only a problem if you pass over the fat tubs of goo who can actually hit.
As to the origins of the trade and the value of Bauer ... this looks to me more like the Reds and Indians were trying to find a deal for Choo but Cincy didn't have what the Indians were looking for. One of those guys had the bright idea of including AZ, knowing they were looking to move Bauer and were possibly stunned at how little Towers wanted in return.
Or the simplest "explanation" -- AZ scouts fell in love with Gregorius (also a good name for an evil monk on Buffy).
No, but I'll invoke the Babe Ruth clause: "I'll take a bunch of lazy guys who eat donuts (and hotdogs, and drink beer) all day, and are a pain in the ass, if they can hit the snot out of the ball."
It's harder, but possible to find guys with a poor work ethic who can contribute. I'll take them -- grudgingly.
It's dead easy to find truly great players who were a major PITA (but had a tremendous work ethic) in some way. I'll take the next Jim Palmer or Dave Stieb or Lefty Grove or ...
Of course, "poor work ethic" is relative. Everyone who makes it to MLB has some decent work ethic, or they'd be a 300 schlub playing video games all day.
I jsut wouldn't have a particular preference for "gym rats" over guys on the mellow side of the spectrum. Lots of chubby guys (especially pitchers) have had awesome careers.
So THATS why I never got drafted ?
Yes. This happened in early June, 10 1/2 months after Drew suffered a gruesome broken ankle in which he had to put it back in place himself while lying in agony at home plate.
We can't be sure the rest of the baseball world knew these deals were going down and chose not to bid - I don't imagine teams canvas every other of the 29 teams out there before they make a move. They decide on a handful of guys they want/would accept and go after them. But either way, if the rest of the baseball world doesn't consider Myers and Bauer to be top prospects, then there simply are no top prospects out there, because these guys are among the very very best of what exists right now. I don't think any of us would argue that's the case. I don't care how many "holes in his swing" Myers has, or how snotty Bauer's nose is, they both performed, and at an extremely high level. If these guys aren't top prospects, who is?
If he was RH, Kubel would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. Decent hitter for a small RF and DH, that only has a '13 committment.
I don't think they can add another LHB though.
Dave Cameron fancies himself a scout these days.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tim-lincecum-bad-luck-or-bad-pitches/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-verlanders-location-problem/
And that means that a lot of analysis is deferring to major league teams because "they know something we don't" scouting wise about some player:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-harens-health-and-what-we-dont-know/
He still has the occasional good article
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/big-leaguers-prospects-and-uncertainty/
But he's not a good analyst anymore.
So the Twins obviously think that Denard Span is worthless or that Alex Meyer is a top notch prospect. Teams never make suboptimal decisions! It's ok JC you can come back, we're ready to embrace you as the genius you are.
edit: claiming that those prospects we're valued less by the rest of baseball that is
I don't think that's true. There was the whole "put a Milo on him" thing where they were eliminating anyone that had questions about commitment, work ethic, etc. The A's, with that limited budget and dependence on homegrown players, didn't feel that they could afford to pick risky character guys. They, at least at the time of the 2002 draft, generally rejected the notion of "good body type" but someone being lazy or a pain in the ass was earning them a Milo.
my guess:
the myers offer was a relatively competitive one - given that i'm quite sure the bb industry values shields more than most statdorks do. i love it for tb and don't like it for kc.
the bauer deal probably wasn't - this is not a good haul for arizona. the long toss / particularness in bauer's personality is something teams likely care more about than we do and i do think there's something to cameron's concern about bauer's so-so command and high flyball rate. (i'd still have trevor on my team in a heartbeat, mind you). i thought didi was interesting - sure - but i've yet to see anybody, in any venue, defend this deal for the snakes. imo, they were hosed.
i do suspect that the twins view meyer highly, yeah. that's not a crazy deal for them - though i definitely give the win to dc - meyer has a pretty high ceiling and the twins's rep is that they're a lot better at drafting bats than arms, they'll need to add some somehow and span wasn't gonna be on the next good minnesota ballclub.
Seems like a good GM? You have no idea how hard my good friend had to work to free this organization of all the talent Josh Byrnes and Jerry Dipoto had piled up, stinking up the place.
Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Jarrod Parker, Ryan Roberts, Ryan Cook, and Bauer and Shaw are just the start. We still have to get rid of the fancy pants "players" brought in by Byrnes/Dipoto, Next will be Upton, Parra, Hudson, Kennedy, Goldscmidt, Collmentor, Miley, and those punks Skaggs and Corbin. When KT is done getting rd of the old regimes mistakes, we will finally build a Kurt Gibson team, full of guys who run hard even when they don't know why or where they are going, and if a brick wall gets in their way, we'll get more guys.
We already brought in real baseball players who dress, stand, and talk baseball like real players who show up for the bus every day, say yes sir, and steal every base or get caught trying. Gamers like Kubel, whose uniform is so spattered before the game you'd think he ate a dozen hotdogs, when he only ate a half dozen, and rarely puke while chasing a single into a double.
You nerds and your slide-rules ay think we lost value in this trade, that Bauer was some amazing prospect. But, no one wanted to pay up for him, so what could we do, keep him? And watch Mr. SnotNose LongTossPants confuse some arbitrator with all his "strikeouts" so we have to pay the long hair millions to go 12-12 with a 3.4 ERA over 220 innings for one of our 60 win teams? Hell no, the only pot smoking millionaire allowed in this organization s gonna be KT himself, and Mr. KK whenever he taps into our secret stash.
Now excuse me, KT and I are finishing a bowl to chortle over secret weapon of this trade, Lars Anderson, or as he will soon be known, the next Mark McGwire!
Of course, this was written right before he took over in Arizona, so maybe his recent deals have totally ruined his record, or maybe it's still too early to tell. I guess I'm trying to make the Diamondback fans on this site feel a little better.
edit: claiming that those prospects we're valued less by the rest of baseball that is
They may well be, but, if this was all you could get for Myers and Bauer, you keep them.
Bad GMs often make mistakes b/c they act based on "I have to get a SS", or, "I have to get rid of X". That very mindset drives a suboptimal outcome, especially since other GMs can sense it.
Or, in cases like this, the shitty organizations broadcast that they don't like a prospect that much. If you hate a guy and want to trade him, you should be praising his ass to every freelance blogger who'll listen.
Come on now, Doug "The Belly" Mirabelli is hardly little.
I mean to say "crispix and petunia are, right?" in reference to claim that no one was saying other teams valued myers and bauer less. I doubt the Rays valued Myers lower, but just used his perceived value against the Royals.
Would Alcides Escobar for Trevor Bauer had been a fair deal? I'm just trying to figure how the Royals could have added pitching without giving up Myers or any other big pieces. Even Wil Myers and Alcides Escobar for Trevor Bauer + Chris Young seems fairer than what the Royals and D-Backs got.
ag#1f: had arizona done that, i (for one) would've though arizona was selling low, but that it was a not unreasonable deal. mind you, that's absent the pennington deal.
between alcides and bauer, i take bauer.
148 - that's certainly part of it, in all likelihood.
145 - i'm with you in theory, but that's 'cause my valuation of shields and myers probably isn't that far from yours. reasonable people can disagree here (particularly w/ the less known commodity).
also, i think people here were undervaluing shields durability (game to game and within games - the marginal innings that are getting picked up aren't all by the #3 reliever) - while i'd guess that the baseball world isn't discounting the possibility that he'll fail to stay so healthy enough / park and defense effects that gave him the value he had in tampa.
But what if you think that they could drop in value below what you are able to receive if you trade them now, like "I think he is an A- right now, but all I can get is value equal to a B, but based on our internal info we expect him to drop to a C+ by the end of the year" Along the lines of it is better to trade a guy a year too early opposed to a year too late.
Ryan Roberts 4.7 WAR, less than $3m
Willie B. $4.7M, -0.5 WAR
Kubel has to go cause same idiot signed him for $15m without realizing he was a DH.
Actually, I believe Dipoto was a major proponent for drafting Bauer, but Towers was fully onboard. Am too lazy to go looking for articles from the time he was drafted (Nick Piecoro at AZ Central had great coverage before and after the draft), but Towers was impressed with Bauer and at least at the time said all the right things about wanting him in the organization. Bauer mentioned after signing that the Dbacks had promised him to let him continue his unusual routine.
It's possible that Towers never liked Bauer, and drafted him because Dipoto insisted on it (with Towers getting his guy in Archie Bradley at #7). Once Dipoto was gone, Towers couldn't wait to get rid of Bauer. It's possible Towers was OK with Bauer, but also had a deal with Dipoto that Dipoto would manage Bauer's development to the majors. Or it's possible Towers felt he could quickly beat the nonsensical approach to pitching out of Bauer once Bauer has been signed.
It's probably a combination of all this. There were rumors that Dipoto and Towers strongly disagreed about when and how to bring up Bauer to the majors. There were all the innuendos by Towers that Bauer needed to stop the long toss "nonsense" and start pitching like a regular guy. There were all the thinly veiled threats by Towers that Bauer was an employee of the Dbacks and should do what his employer told him to do. Then there was the trade, basically a talent dump.
Anyhow, that's water under the bridge. Kevin Towers just acquired a guy who reminds him of a young Derek Jeter, apparently. I think that tells us all we need to know about Kevin Towers.
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