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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

MLBTR: Tigers To Promote Robbie Ray

Say Ray.

The Tigers have announced that left-handed starter Robbie Ray will be recalled and make his Major League debut against the Astros next Tuesday. ...

Ray’s promotion was necessitated by an injury to Anibal Sanchez, but should he impress to the point where he sticks on the roster, his promotion likely will lead him to Super Two status. If his official promotion is delayed until next Tuesday, he would accrue 148 days of Major League service time through season’s end, which would almost certainly place him within the top 22 percent of the two-to-three year service class following the 2016 campaign. That would make Ray eligible for arbitration four times, beginning after the ’16 season, and also setting him to hit free agency in the 2019-20 offseason. Of course, that schedule would change were Ray to be sent back down when Sanchez returns, which should be sometime in mid-May.

Somewhat ironically, Ray is making his Major League debut before the injured Fister has thrown a single Major League pitch for the Nationals. The trade was widely panned in the media at the time, as many felt that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski received too little for Fister, and it’s been compounded by his decision to trade Lombardozzi for Alex Gonzalez, who has already been released. Ray’s development into a reliable starting option for the Tigers would greatly change that perception.

Renegade (((JE))) Posted: April 30, 2014 at 05:00 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bad decisions coming back to bite you in the ass, rookies, tigers

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   1. SBB, Live from the Alt-Center Posted: April 30, 2014 at 07:49 PM (#4697900)
Bu-bu-bu-bu-bu-bu-bu-bu-bu-but Robbie Ray isn't any good. Keith Law said so.
   2. Bote Man Posted: April 30, 2014 at 09:12 PM (#4697944)
ROB-BIE'S BET-TER! CLAP, CLAP, CLAP-CLAP-CLAP!
   3. Walt Davis Posted: April 30, 2014 at 09:12 PM (#4697945)
So far at AAA (all of 28 IP), Ray's Ks are down substantially but so are the walks and HRs. These 28 IP have been a completely different Ray so it's a little hard to know what to expect -- maybe the Tigers fixed him. What was he like in the spring?

Obviously Fister's injury changes the expected outcomes of the trade but it's not clear there was any reason to think Fister was at higher risk of injury than Ray. If he was and DD knew it, then most of us (including me) mis-evaluated this trade. I'm just pretty doubtful Fister's injury risk was higher ... unless he was already hurt of course.

The trade of Lombardozzi does essentially nothing to change the outcomes of this trade. The guy was a bit below replacement for his career through 2013 and is a bit below so far this year.

I see Kinsler has slumped pretty badly but is still out-hitting Fielder.

How come nobody's panicking about Cabrera's Pujols impression?

April, age 31:

AP 245/305/453
MC 270/316/416 with 2 HR in 95 PA

Tigers have had a weird "schedule" so far -- only 22 games played compared to most teams 25-28. This has allowed them to essentially use a 4-man rotation -- Smyly has just 2 starts while Verlander has 6. Given the way those top 4 have pitched, they should probably have a better record than 13-9.
   4. Cooper Nielson Posted: May 01, 2014 at 02:25 AM (#4698061)
As an admitted Tiger fanboy, I was always in the, "Well, maybe it's not as bad as you think" camp for the Fister trade, but even I am pleasantly surprised by the way it seems to be working out so far R.Ray has looked pretty good at AAA (despite the strikeout drop) and it looks like he will pitch in the majors before Fister this year.

How come nobody's panicking about Cabrera's Pujols impression?

I think people are panicking a little bit, but they're doing so very quietly. This is a guy, after all, coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, preceded by two seasons that were just as good. Most people are willing to accept that this is "just a slump", which seems more likely than a guy suddenly forgetting how to hit after hitting like a beast non-stop for four seasons (or, really, his whole career). The off-days probably haven't helped.

In Pujols's case, his age-31 year continued a fairly visible decline from his age-28 peak. It would mark the third straight year his average, OBP, OPS, and OPS+ declined. (His SLG and WAR went up a bit at age 29.) Cabrera's coming off a season where he was seemingly at his best in everything except health.

Given the way those top 4 have pitched, they should probably have a better record than 13-9.

It's still pretty good, 13-9 is a 96-win pace. After winning today, they're 14-9, which is a 99-win pace. The Tigers won 93 games last year with arguably a better top 4 (Sanchez has a 3.13 ERA this year but hasn't even averaged 5 IP per start; Fister was better than Porcello) and inarguably a better offense.
   5. Bug Selig Posted: May 01, 2014 at 08:40 AM (#4698095)
and inarguably a better offense.


But... but... Rajai Davis!
   6. Kurt Posted: May 01, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4698123)
I assume Cabrera is hurt, no? He's hitting exactly like he did last September, when he could barely get on the field.
   7. Publius Publicola Posted: May 01, 2014 at 10:34 AM (#4698152)
Ray is pitching quite well for Toldeo, BTW. A 1.59 ERA with a 4.20 K/BB ratio and only 1 HR in 28.33 innings ain't too shabby.
   8. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: May 01, 2014 at 11:20 AM (#4698195)
Are you Robbie Ray?

Who wants to know?
   9. Renegade (((JE))) Posted: May 01, 2014 at 11:29 AM (#4698200)
Who wants to know?

Caz Dolowicz?
   10. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: May 01, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4698253)

Given the way those top 4 have pitched, they should probably have a better record than 13-9.

Starting SS out for the season
Primary LF out till June at least
Primary setup man out for the season
Floundering pen with an ERA over 5 (despite OK peripherals)
Cabrera hitting a quiet .280
New manager
Dealt cleanup hitter and top-10 in AL SP over the winter
Rookie 3B

I'd say 13-9, now 14-9, is pretty impressive given all that. I'm very happy with the start. Ian Kinsler is a helluva ballplayer and Castellanos is holding his own, looks like he'll be a good one.

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