Regarding Ichiro's move to RF in Japan.

1994, So Taguchi (yes, that So Taguchi) was moved from shortstop (where he suffered from Knoblauch Arm) to the outfield. Since he had good speed, a shortstop's arm, and, well, a shortstop's bat, he was put in CF, and Ichiro, who was an offensive and defensive force with a cannon arm, was naturally put in RF.

As to what level Japanese baseball is, Clay Davenport addressed this years ago.
Japanese Baseball - How good is it?
Japanese Baseball Pt. 2

There are lots of good arguments to be made regarding the level of Japanese baseball. Anyone who points to Tuffy Rhodes as an indicator of a lack of quality gives up the high ground. You're better than that, Dial, or at least I'd like to think so.

Anyone who points to Tuffy Rhodes as an indicator of a lack of quality gives up the high ground. You're better than that, Dial, or at least I'd like to think so.

It is an indoicator of the qualty. I specifically was saying that his performance goes into determining the evaluation of the difference in quality. there's no doubt his excellent performance affects the translations (of which there are still very, very few datapoints coming this way.)

Tuffy Rhodes hit a lot of home runs. It says something about the quality of the league. Even if it is just ballparks.

Oh, I use Tuffy to say it is clearly below MLB. I stated that consensus was it was above AAA (about).

From the glossary:

OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)

i.e. OPS+ counts OBP and SLG equally.

Now maybe that's out of date and some change has been made somewhere. Let's check.

Using this formula we get Ichiro having an OPS+ of 117. BB-ref indeed lists his OPS+ as 117.

Conclusion: OPS+ counts OBP and SLG equally, and so undervalues OBP compared to SLG.

What you're missing here is that the league OBP is lower than the league SLG. Let's take a player with a league average OBP and a league average SLG - they have an OBP+ of 100 and an SLG+ of 100, exactly equal.

Or let's try Ichiro, using 2008 season-to-date stats. Let's figure OPS+ the way most people probably think its figured, OPS/lgOPS * 100:

.732/.736*100 = 99

By straight OPS (okay, so park-adjusted), Ichirio is a below-average hitter so far this season. Now, figured the way you list:

100 * ( .357/.328 + .375/.407 - 1) = 101

OPS+ is in fact weighting a point of OBP higher than a point of SLG. We could nitpick over whether OPS+ is using the correct weighting, but that's really the point where if you need that much precision, you should just be using linear weights or a dynamic run estimator instead.

Oh, I use Tuffy to say it is clearly below MLB. I stated that consensus was it was above AAA (about).

And that's what I take issue with. Rhodes got jerked around by the Astros and Cubs, never got to play a full season, and went to Japan at age 27. Do you know how many home runs he hit over here his first year? 27. After that 22, then 22 again. He hit 40 in 1998, and then back down to 25, before finally taking off in 2001. So it's not like he just came over and started taking home run title after home run title. He got the chance to play everyday and improved as a player. No, I don't think he'd be a 40+ HR hitter in MLB, but he sure as well wouldn't be the same hitter he was before he went to Japan. Jesus, it's sample frickin' size. We have a small sample of MLB performance, and a big sample of NPB performance, but for some reason people looking to cut down NPB give them the same weight. Rhodes is a success story, and doesn't deserve that.

Re 101 - Orix drafted both Taguchi and Ichiro in 1992. Taguchi in the first round, Ichiro in the second. Props to that scouting director.

Re 101 - Orix drafted both Taguchi and Ichiro in 1992. Taguchi in the first round, Ichiro in the second. Props to that scouting director.

Well, in his defense, at the time Taguchi was a filled-out good-hitting college shortstop from one of the powerhouse baseball colleges, while Ichiro was a scrawny high school pitcher.

I was wrong about that draft - Ichiro was in the 4th (last) round.

No, I don't think he'd be a 40+ HR hitter in MLB, but he sure as well wouldn't be the same hitter he was before he went to Japan. Jesus, it's sample frickin' size. We have a small sample of MLB performance, and a big sample of NPB performance, but for some reason people looking to cut down NPB give them the same weight. Rhodes is a success story, and doesn't deserve that.

Okay, I don't think he had that kind of power, nor would have in MLB. Rhodes played the whole 1994 season and hit 8 HRs in 300 PAs. In a pumped up season at Age 25. No, he didn't get a full shot, but he got to play the whole season and performed pretty poorly. Yes, he showed some pop in the minors (albeit in the old PCL). And HR counts without ABs don't tell me much.

Okay, I don't think he had that kind of power, nor would have in MLB. Rhodes played the whole 1994 season and hit 8 HRs in 300 PAs. In a pumped up season at Age 25. No, he didn't get a full shot, but he got to play the whole season and performed pretty poorly.

He didn't get to play the whole season, he played half a season. And he performed poorly at age 25, just like Edgar Martinez did in 1989 at age 26 - less at bats, but same principle.

He didn't get to play the whole season, he played half a season

No, in 1994, they only played 110 games. 95 is close to the whole season. But he didn't hit very much. Either way - he hit 8 HRs in 300 PAs.

And HR counts without ABs don't tell me much.

Year AB/HR
1996 501/27
1997 511/22
1998 494/22
1999 491/40
2000 525/25
2001 550/55
2002 534/46
2003 508/51
2004 523/45
2005 379/27

And he performed poorly at age 25, just like Edgar Martinez did in 1989 at age 26 - less at bats, but same principle.

Hell, Edgar wasn't banging them out at ages 27-29 like he would from ages 33-38.

Here's my issue. Yeah, there's a power drop off coming from NPB to MLB. But Hideki Matsui, who was a 40+ hitter in CL bandboxes is still a 20+ hitter in MLB. But for some reason Tuffy Rhodes, playing mostly in larger parks than Matsui, would go from 40+ HR to 20- in MLB? Why the different standard for non-Japanese players?

If Tuffy Rhodes went from a MLB washout to star slugger of NPB (after 5 years of playing there), that says to me more towards Tuffy's improvement as a player than anything about the level of the league compared to MLB.

No, in 1994, they only played 110 games.

Um, is it your contention that the season was not shortened that year? Is it your contention that a 110 game season = a 162 game season? Is it your contention that 269 at-bats is equal to a full season?

Um, is it your contention that the season was not shortened that year? Is it your contention that a 110 game season = a 162 game season? Is it your contention that 269 at-bats is equal to a full season?

No, but he was a regular. He wasn't spot started. My contention is that he got to play everyday. That's not like 95 games in a 162 game season

that says to me more towards Tuffy's improvement as a player than anything about the level of the league compared to MLB.

I contend his development was aided by being in Japan.

And AFAICT, none of that matters. Aren't we in agreement that the NPB is a lower league than the MLB? You just don't like the use of Rhodes as an example? Why? You said yourself he was an example -

This year, Ichiro's SB numbers are still excellent, but his BA is down, his walks seem to be slightly up, and all in all, he does not seem to resemble the same hit machine he used to be.

Any thoughts on whether he is closer to the end, batting wise, than people have been predicting?

Aren't we in agreement that the NPB is a lower league than the MLB?

I sense we agree in principle but differ in degree. I believe that NPB ball is significantly enought higher than AAA that celebrating an achievement of a man who spent significant time in both NPB and MLB is reasonable. In other words, that NPB, while not part of the organization called Major League Baseball, is nonetheless a major league. You seem to believe that in as much as it is not MLB, it is equal in importance as AAA and less.

You just don't like the use of Rhodes as an example? Why?

One man is not a league. What I really object to is the lazy thinking and the lazy arguing. Tuffy Rhodes performance is not objectively analyzed and held up to show the comparative difference between the leagues for any kind of helpful knowledge, he's snarkily referred to whenever someone wants to insult Japanese baseball, to portray it's level of baseball in a bad light. Your bringing him up in this conversation was exactly in that vein. "Seriously, Tuffy Rhodes?" I don't think it's fair to Rhodes, I don't think it's fair to Japanese baseball, and I think it's pretty much the "get your head out of the spreadsheets and go watch a game" of discussion about Japanese baseball.

You said yourself he was an example

An example of what? Of the level of Japanese baseball? No, I never said that. You'll have to show me where I did. I don't see the word "example" in any of my posts here. The only contention I've made regarding Rhodes was that he improved by playing everyday.

Any thoughts on whether he is closer to the end, batting wise, than people have been predicting?

Predicting it out, his strikeouts are about in-line with his normal performance, and his walk rate means that he'll have about 10 more BB than an average season. Both are well within the line of normal variance. In terms of his average, he's ranged heavily between .303 (2005) and .372 (2004) over his career. To me, it just feels like some of the singles just aren't dropping in this year (Natural variation of BABIP FTW!), and he'll return to his normal .330 self next season.

This year, Ichiro's SB numbers are still excellent, but his BA is down, his walks seem to be slightly up, and all in all, he does not seem to resemble the same hit machine he used to be.

Any thoughts on whether he is closer to the end, batting wise, than people have been predicting?

He had a really bad April (his BABIP was pretty bad, too), but has been hitting .312 or better since then. It seems mostly the bad April, and maybe a bit of pressing as he closed in on 3,000. He started off July pretty torrid. He came in with a .295 average, got it up to .307 by July 20, and then it was 0-4, 0-4, 1-2, 1-6, 0-5, 1-5, 2-4, 1-4, 2-5.

Edit: His slugging's been down, too, even in the months when he's been hitting over .300. I suspect he's been focusing on placing hits to get his BA up, so he hasn't been hitting the ball so hard. His ISO was much higher in his floundering April than it's been since.

To bring this thread full circle, Tuffy's career trajectory is similar to Ibanez's, and may have had a similar MLB career in the states. Although you have to be lucky to make it as late as Ibanez did.

An example of what? Of the level of Japanese baseball? No, I never said that. You'll have to show me where I did. I don't see the word "example" in any of my posts here. The only contention I've made regarding Rhodes was that he improved by playing everyday.

An example of how a player that hits lots of HRs in NPB won't hits lots in MLB. That while he his 40+ for a long time he wouldn't do that in MLB. And example of that difference.

Aren't we in agreement that the NPB is a lower league than the MLB?

AL or NL?

An example of how a player that hits lots of HRs in NPB won't hits lots in MLB. That while he his 40+ for a long time he wouldn't do that in MLB. And example of that difference.

No, I didn't use him as an example of such a player, or of that difference. I was talking about Tuffy as Tuffy. Surely you see the difference between a person guessing at Tuffy's MLB performance in a discussion about Tuffy Rhodes, and someone saying, "Look at Tuffy Rhodes!" in a discussion about the level of Japanese baseball, can't you?

The rest of minor league baseball merits respect, too, but I don't remember MLB honoring Ripken's 3500th professional hit or Edgar Martinez's 350th professional home run.

Because doing so would be implicitly noting the fundamental unfairness of the reserve clause.

I was talking about Tuffy as Tuffy.

Does "Tuffy being Tuffy" translate well into Japanese?

Surely you see the difference between a person guessing at Tuffy's MLB performance in a discussion about Tuffy Rhodes, and someone saying, "Look at Tuffy Rhodes!" in a discussion about the level of Japanese baseball, can't you?

Well, you said "No, I don't think he'd be a 40+ HR hitter in MLB, but he sure as well wouldn't be the same hitter he was before he went to Japan." He was a 45+ HR hitter from 2001-2004. You also said " Yeah, there's a power drop off coming from NPB to MLB. But Hideki Matsui, who was a 40+ hitter in CL bandboxes is still a 20+ hitter in MLB." those seem like "examples", whether the word was used or not.

Chris, even if Tuffy Rhodes would've hit five home runs in MLB instead of the 40+ he got in Japan, what does that have to do with how many hits Ichiro might have had if he'd started his career in the US? If you're trying to adjust numbers earned in a different league, you don't just knock everyone down the same percentage in every stat, at least not if you're being remotely realistic. It's just like ballpark factors--sure, you can lump everything together and say Coors plays at 109 or whatever, but it has differing effects and park factors on average, home runs and the like, and even differing effects for left- or right-handed hitters.

All the evidence shows that power diminishes considerably for players moving from Japan to MLB, but much lower impacts on average. Since Ichiro's game isn't at all based on power, he's been less affected by changing leagues than anyone else who's done it. His own career provides the best possible MLEs for a player like him.

He played in over 96% of his team's games in Japan, and in even more here in the US. He slugged over .500 every year for Orix, but dropped into the .400s for the Mariners. His batting average dropped from .353 to .330, so maybe we should adjust his hits downward, but he's getting way more at bats here due to the longer seasons, so we'd have to adjust back up. If my quick arithmetic is right, in Japan he averaged 1.3 hits per game; in the US, 1.4. His high in hits in a Japanese season was 210; his low season total in the US was 206.

Maybe he wouldn't have come up to the big leagues quite as early if his name was Ichabod Smith and he was a native of Dayton, Ohio, but I have to believe he'd be right around 3000 career hits. All the evidence points to him as Lou Brock, only better, and he's still got his decline phase ahead of him.

I can understand not taking the Japanese stats at face value, but it seems willfully obtuse to call them meaningless.

Well, you said "No, I don't think he'd be a 40+ HR hitter in MLB, but he sure as well wouldn't be the same hitter he was before he went to Japan." He was a 45+ HR hitter from 2001-2004. You also said " Yeah, there's a power drop off coming from NPB to MLB. But Hideki Matsui, who was a 40+ hitter in CL bandboxes is still a 20+ hitter in MLB." those seem like "examples", whether the word was used or not.

Ah, I see. I was wrong to give you so much credit. Congratulations, sir, you "hooked" me. Having reeled in your fish, I trust you'll sleep soundly tonight.