User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
For wholesale prices on baseball gifts and equipment, check these stores out! |
Page rendered in 0.4521 seconds
53 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. hokieneer Posted: February 29, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4071002)Agreed. That's some long green for a 29 y.o. catcher with an 88 career OPS+. Even his three-year average is only 103.
They have to believe 2011 is a real hitting breakthrough.
And the contract extension doesn't start til he's 30.
But (a) you're extending him a year early, you should get a discount and (b) I do not for a second believe any team would have really offered that.
But also ... they wouldn't get a deal done with Pujols last offseason, they didn't pony up the dough for Pujols this offseason. Next year they will be paying $27 M for Berkman and Molina (not to mention $12 M for Lohse).
I think everyone agrees you'd rather have Pujols for 2012 over Berkman/Molina. I'd like to think everyone also agrees you'd rather have a Molina cousin that is currently 13-years old, and someone young enough to be Berkman's son over Pujols in 2021.
So predictable for BTF. When I saw the headline, I expected the exact comment to be FIRST! Sure enough it was. The BTF catcher would be Greg Zaun or Rick Dempsey.
Really? Nearly everyone here said good riddance to Pujols. Due to the wet dream of player(s) that his yearly salary would pull in. Guess not. Of course everyone had greater fantasies than Berkman/Molina, but those fantasies were utterly unrealistic.
There is a skill to landing great deals. Most deals are not great, but average. BTF like anyone else would likely end up right in the middle, average.
Well that would be pretty fracking awesome given that we're a bunch of guys posting on the internet in our spare time.
If we could be average, doesn't say much for the professionals.
I'm not so sure. That would mean a lot of passed balls.
In the five full seasons since his age 23 season when he hit just .216, Molina has an OPS+ of 99. (His first three seasons he had OPS+'s of 78. 70, and 53).
There aren't a ton of catchers over the last few years averaging a 100+ OPS. The ones that have are either part-time catchers (Martinez, Napoli) or haven't shown the durability of Molina (Mauer, Soto, even McCann).
If Yadier ages anything like his brother, this will be a great deal for the Birds: from Bengie's age 30-34 seasons he significantly outperformed his career offensive averages while being his team's starting catcher every year.
Like Yadier, going into his age-30 season Bengie's career high in HR was 14, which he reached in his age 29 season. He then hit between 16 and 20 each of the next five seasons.
There aren't a ton of catchers over the last few years averaging a 100+ OPS. The ones that have are either part-time catchers (Martinez, Napoli) or haven't shown the durability of Molina (Mauer, Soto, even McCann).
If Yadier ages anything like his brother, this will be a great deal for the Birds: from Bengie's age 30-34 seasons he significantly outperformed his career offensive averages while being his team's starting catcher every year.
Like Yadier, going into his age-30 season Bengie's career high in HR was 14, which he reached in his age 29 season. He then hit between 16 and 20 each of the next five seasons.
So? Being the best at a bad position doesn't make you worth 5/75.
Bengie had 500 Gs through age 28, not 944.
I simply wouldn't want to give any catcher not named Berra or Bench a big money, 5-year deal from age 30-34, much less one who has been a regular since 22.
If a Molina could hit, what would he be worth?
OMG, are they kidding?
What is your definition of hit? He was among the best hitting catcher in baseball over a full season last year, it may not be projectable for upcoming seasons, but he was at least very good last year. He is just passing the apex of his prime and even being a catcher, should be a pretty good bet to be an above average player each of the next two seasons.
I'm not defending the signing, I don't think any catcher in baseball history is probably worth this amount of money for these age seasons. Catchers just don't age well. But saying Molina can't hit is not really basing a comment on facts.
Why would you want 3 or 4 Molinas? You only need to carry 2 catchers.
I'm not sure I would sign any catcher for 5 years though.
WAR does a horrible job of evaluating catcher defense. Molina is the best in the league at catcher defense. Signing a 5-6 win player for $15M is a "horrible overpay" now?
I think most of us post here in our professional time XD
Well, there's pinch-running.
Wonder what he'd've gotten as a free agent?
If you don't like WAR for catching defense, what criteria do you use to determine that he's the best? Maybe WAR is overrating his defensive value. Anyway, even if WAR is underrating his D, I'm not sure how you get to a 6 win player. Even if you tack on a full extra defensive win to his 2011 offensive numbers, numbers that were by far the best of his career, you get to 4.9 WAR.
That said, I don't think it's a terrible deal. I think Molina is a very good defensive catcher, and while 2011 probably doesn't represent a new baseline with the bat, he hits enough to be an asset at C. He's been durable, and they're only paying him through his age 33 season. I'd put the over/under WAR for the deal at ~12. If it's an overpay, it probably won't be an egregious one.
If research like this is close to the mark, perhaps it's not so crazy. Just from an intuitive sense, too, it doesn't seem that egregious to say a great defensive catcher -- a guy involved on every single pitch who can frame pitches well, shut down the running game, block pitches and call a good game -- could be two full wins better than an average* catcher. Whether Molina continues to be a great defensive catcher from 30-34 is another question.
EDIT: Maybe this should be "replacement level defensive catcher". Two full wins over an average defensive catcher does seem pretty high, although if I'm reading the first chart in the link above correctly, I think he's using average and not replacement level as a baseline.
Defense is measured based upon average.
I agree that War probably does a poor job of evaluating catchers defense, but Molina had a career year last year, you don't sign someone based upon their career year. At least you don't base their value on their career year. Add in the fact that catchers age terribly and it's a pretty big risk. Having said that, I wouldn't be at all shocked if this turns out to be a significantly better signing than the Mauer signing. (heck I wouldn't be shocked at all, if Molina's real value over the next five years is better than Mauers----still doesn't make the signing a good one, just shows how much overpaid Mauer was)
If research like that is close to the mark, they should save some 12M and sign his brother.
Doubtful, since it measures so little of what a catcher does every day.
And Molina isn't even the best at his position.
He probably was last year.
One year doesn't make you the best, and "probably" doesn't either.
Absolutely agree, just trying to rile up Sam.
As to the probably, I don't think there is any real debate that Molina was the best catcher in baseball last year, but I'm sure someone will try to argue it.
Jakob Dylan wants at least 3.
By this measure, he's the 2nd best catcher over 2008-2011.
who had a better season who played a significant portion of their games at catcher? I'm serious people seem to be bagging on the concept that Molina had the best year last year, and then not offering any other options. Molina had a better season than McCann, the best catcher in the game. Montero could be on the list, if you are a slave to war, which as mentioned isn't probably the best tool, but offensively Molina had better rate numbers once you park adjust. Who else is left, the guy from Cleveland who played only 95 games at catcher? Napoli and his 61 games at cather?
I'm serious, what catcher played nearly as many games at a legitimate gold glove level of production while putting up 126 ops+?
Molina had an excellent year as a C (3.9 WAR), but so did guys like Alex Avila (5.4), Carlos Santana (3.9 WAR), Matt Wieters (4.0), and Miguel Montero (4.5 - this surprised the hell out of me). You could argue that the aspects of catcher defense that aren't measured by WAR could add a lot to his value (and I wouldn't argue with you), but it's not nearly as cut and dried as you seem to think it is.
His defensive reputation (4 consecutive Gold Gloves), postseason success (.309/.354/.417 in 189 PA, 2 WS rings), and improvement with the bat (3.2 oWAR in 2011) would look mighty appealing to the plethora of big spenders (Yankees/Red Sox/Angels/Phillies/et al) who project to have an opening at the catcher position.
Brian McCann is the best catcher in baseball.
At this price? Can't see it. There was no need for St. Louis to do this at this point for this long. You're also for some reason assuming his offensive improvement last year is anything more than a blip.
And that is what I said.
Joe Mauer is the best catcher in baseball.
Santana played 95 games at catcher he's not in the discussion.
Not saying it's cut and dry, saying he probably had the best overall year as a catcher last year, I can see Avila, if he's a league average catcher, being in the discussion. I don't go by war because it's flawed massively on catchers. (using war for catchers, pitchers or first baseman is a waste of time)
Mauer is a hybrid, he's not a catcher, he's a catcher for 110 or so games, and a dh for the rest, his numbers are artificially inflated because of that, and because of that he's not the best catcher in the game. McCann is the best catcher in the game.
You aren't? You were an hour ago.
And originally i said probably. That part was my opinion in that I don't think there is real debate, but I also originally said probably because I know that other people live and die by war. For me, catcher argument is pretty simple, compare offensive numbers, number of games played at catcher and relative defensive reputation. Guys like Santana and Mauer can't ever enter the discussion, because all I care for this debate is their value at catcher, the 30 games they play at DH has zero bearing on their values as a catcher. Has bearing on their values as a player, just not as a catcher.
I did overlook Avila though.
Except that isn't what happens, in 2008 they posted the same ops+, last year McCann had the better ops+, and outside of McCann's one off year which coincided with Mauers great year, they have been pretty close offensively(by ops+)
In 08 when they caught the same number of games, McCann had the better ops+. Mind you Mauer had the better offensive value because of his great obp, but it's not like there is usually much difference between the two players, except in 2009.
Not eliminating, talking about their values as catchers. Molina 126 ops+ 139 games as a catcher. Santana 124 ops+ 95 games as a catcher. not in the discussion, lesser offensive season and clearly not the defensive value. Mauer 82 games total played last year, not in the discussion. Avila in the discussion, and probably the winner 133 games at catcher, 143 ops+, if he's a league average defensive catcher he wins. Wieters 113 ops+, 132 games catcher, and I don't care what war defense says, there is no way his defense makes up the ground between him and Molina. Montero 121 ops+, 134 games at catcher, for him to surpass Molina he has to be the best defensive catcher in the nl, don't see it. Best catcher in the game, McCann 124 ops+, 126 games at catcher again his defense has to be better than Molina for him to surpass him, again don't see it. Napoli 170 ops+ 61 games at catcher, he's not a catcher. Who am I missing?
Now for the record, I have Molina about the 8th best catcher going into the season.
Maybe a Cards fan can tell us what Molina represents to the Cardinals that isn't in the numbers, 'cause this is distinctly peculiar.
Behind the plate, Molina has excellent rapport with the pitching staff. He 'calls a good game' and teams are generally afraid to run on him. In a short series, his value is magnified.
At the plate, he represents as good a case as your likely to find of a 'clutch' hitter.
Bases empty .251/.301/.361/.662 1880 PA
Runners on .296/.376/.383/.759 984 PA
Postseason .309/.354/.417/.772 189 PA
I'm not going to suggest that Yadi mails in ABs in low leverage situations to conserve energy, but that's certainly one possibility. More likely is that he alters his approach depending on the situation. He was the power to hit it out of the park (as Mets fans can assure you), but it seems like he prefers to drive in runs via opposite field singles.
Yadi ranks 3rd in AB/SO among active players (min 3000 PA).
Simply put, he does many things well that go unnoticed, and has features a skill set that is dually rare and invaluable in postseason series.
He's as dumb as Ichiro.
I always get a kick out of oddball stats like Molina scoring 34 runs in 521 plate appearances in 2010. I wonder what the record is for least runs scored in 500+ PAs--it can't be much less than 34.
PI says the "record" is 25 by Leo Cardenas in 1972. 150 games, 25 runs. He scored once a week. Molina's 34 doesn't crack the top 30 going back to 1901, but if you only look at the last 50 years he's tied for 8th fewest. Most of the players on the are 2nd basemen FWIW.
This kind of stuff interests me. He had 2 games where he scored twice. So that means he played in 127 games without scoring.
The man could go on a run of runs or no runs. 13 games without scoring, then he scored a run, followed by 11 straight with out a run. 25 games, 1 run. Then he got "hot" scoring in three games out of four, followed by 15 without scoring. Later he would score in 5 out of 7 games. I wonder if he thought he had turned the corner. He finished the season with a 21 game scoreless streak, scored a run, then capped it all off with a 11 game scoreless streak. He scored 8 runs after the ASG. 8!
And he wasn't the worst hitter on the team.
One the one hand you feel for they guy; on the other you have to admit it would be difficult, in a perverse sort of way, to try to be so ineffective and succeed!
Inadvertent conspicuous futility.
Sounds like an apt catchphrase for a national political campaign
Maybe I'm feeling my age, but I have to say $15 per seems like a lot for a poor offensive producer. But he seems to be liked, and his defensive reputation is sterling. I would have guessed something like 8-9 over 5 years would have been fair value, but again, I'm probably just old.
Given his reputation, I would have guessed something like 11-12 over 3. They could have tore up the last year of this deal and did something like 4 for 45-48. But 6 more years and 80+ mil is a lot.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main