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Sunday, October 06, 2019

Mookie Betts removed from Red Sox season ticket web page

Are the Red Sox sending a not-so-subtle hint about Mookie Betts’ future in Boston to prospective season ticket holders?

When you visit the portion of the team website seeking new season-ticket buyers, the illustration on the web page shows Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Chris Sale.

Barstool Sports’ Jared Carrabis pointed out earlier this week that Betts had been removed from the illustration. The Red Sox All-Star right fielder and 2018 AL MVP, the subject of much trade speculation as the team prepares to shed payroll this offseason, actually appeared on the page in mid-August. By last week, Eduardo Rodriguez had replaced him. The current graphic has Sale on the left. 

Just like the others pictured on the page, Betts isn’t a free agent…yet. Bogaerts and Sale have signed long-term extensions and the Sox are reportedly ready to talk about an extension with Devers. Betts? He’ll likely receive more than $30 million for the 2020 season in arbitration then command a long-term deal of $300 million or more when he tests the free-agent market after next season.

If we’re going to watch the Red Sox bizarrely melt down, can’t chicken and beer be involved somehow?

 

QLE Posted: October 06, 2019 at 01:06 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mookie betts, red sox

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   1. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 06, 2019 at 11:06 AM (#5887030)
Pass the popcorn chicken.
   2. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 06, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5887034)
Is it possible that the Red Sox have already approached Betts(' agent) about an extension, and it was made clear to them that Betts will not sign an extension at any price and will enter free agency, so the Red Sox feel compelled to trade him?

I assume not, because the Red Sox brass would probably have let that leak to the press. Just pondering out loud. It seems insane to trade him, because he's worth practically any price, and especially to Boston, especially especially because if they let him leave there's an excellent chance he spends the next ten years torturing them as a Yankee.

   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 06, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5887036)
Is it possible that the Red Sox have already approached Betts(' agent) about an extension, and it was made clear to them that Betts will not sign an extension at any price and will enter free agency, so the Red Sox feel compelled to trade him?

How likely is that? He'd sign for $400M/10, right? And shouldn't the Red Sox be competing next year?

Even if he you can't agree on an extension now, you keep him and try to resign him next year.
   4. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 06, 2019 at 11:46 AM (#5887040)
How likely is that? He'd sign for $400M/10, right? And shouldn't the Red Sox be competing next year?


Maybe not. I don't think it's totally impossible he could do better than that next year, given what Bryce Harper just got.

If he's sworn to enter free agency regardless, then keeping him now doesn't make it any more likely you re-sign him in a year, so trading him for a princely ransom now and then re-signing him in a year anyway is still an option--and one that buys a little breathing room to sort out how you're going to get under the tax threshold.
   5. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 06, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5887041)
I just looked Betts up and was surprised--he's not quite as staggeringly awesome a property as I thought he was. A good defensive CF who puts up a 130 OPS+ is a superstar player for sure, but he'll be 27 next year and it seems pretty clear his 2018 season was an anomaly.

So yeah, I'd do 10/400 with the presumed opt-outs. But that's about the limit of how high I'd be willing to go. Andrew McCutchen at age 27 was a pretty similar player, albeit without the glove. He cratered at 29, morphing overnight and permanently into a merely pretty good player. Betts is not risk-free; there's no such thing as risk-free.

All that said, this is the Red Sox we're talking about, not the Pirates. They can afford it, and lots of luck finding another player that good, at any price.
   6. Darren Posted: October 06, 2019 at 12:52 PM (#5887050)
but he'll be 27 next year and it seems pretty clear his 2018 season was an anomaly.


You mean the year where he put up 10.9 WAR in 136 games wasn't the norm? Go figure. That said, Mookie's bWAR's for the past 4 years: 9.7, 6.4, 10.9, 6.8. Average of 8.7. Dock him a half win per season if you don't believe the defensive numbers and he's still above 8.


So yeah, I'd do 10/400 with the presumed opt-outs. But that's about the limit of how high I'd be willing to go.


How much did you think he was worth before you looked at the numbers?
   7. bfan Posted: October 06, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5887052)
The next clue is whether they change the locks in the clubhouse, and do not give him the new key or combination/code.
   8. Buck Coats Posted: October 06, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5887055)
If he's sworn to enter free agency regardless, then keeping him now doesn't make it any more likely you re-sign him in a year, so trading him for a princely ransom now and then re-signing him in a year anyway is still an option--and one that buys a little breathing room to sort out how you're going to get under the tax threshold.


If only one year of Mookie Betts is worth a princely ransom, wouldn't that one year be just as valuable to the presumably-contending Red Sox?
   9. Buck Coats Posted: October 06, 2019 at 01:09 PM (#5887056)
And certainly trading him makes it less likely they re-sign him, in that it makes it more expensive to do so (in terms of draft pick cost for signing another team's FA)
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 06, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5887067)
. . . if they let him leave there's an excellent chance he spends the next ten years torturing them as a Yankee.
The Yankees do have a rather crowded outfield, and roster, next season, and possibly beyond. Not saying that they wouldn’t find it worth it to pursue Betts, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed, especially if they elect to pursue expensive pitching options.
   11. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: October 06, 2019 at 04:08 PM (#5887076)
The Mets could use him.
   12. manchestermets Posted: October 06, 2019 at 06:11 PM (#5887099)
Do teams still give up princely ransoms for a single year of control? I get the impression they don't.
   13. Darren Posted: October 06, 2019 at 08:50 PM (#5887192)
Not sure what a princely ransom would be, but a good guide is what the Orioles got for a 1/2 year of Machado and what the Dbacks got for 1 year of Goldschmidt. You would that a full year of Mookie would be worth considerably more than either of those.
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 06, 2019 at 09:48 PM (#5887210)
Are the Red Sox sending a not-so-subtle hint about Mookie Betts’ future in Boston to prospective season ticket holders?


Are people on the internet really as dumb as they seem?
   15. Walt Davis Posted: October 06, 2019 at 10:03 PM (#5887213)
A good defensive CF

He plays RF. He's likely fine in CF although the limited evidence we have is mixed (DRS likes, TZ dislikes, UZR is average, statcast likes). Every metric agrees he's excellent in RF but some rank him super-duper-excellent.

And certainly trading him makes it less likely they re-sign him, in that it makes it more expensive to do so (in terms of draft pick cost for signing another team's FA

Depends. If they trade him after season's start then his new team can't make a QO. Even if they don't do that but do get under the lux tax then it costs them their 2nd pick.

a good guide is what the Orioles got for a 1/2 year of Machado and what the Dbacks got for 1 year of Goldschmidt. You would that a full year of Mookie would be worth considerably more than either of those.

The O's got a lot of bodies. None were ranked in the top 100 before the start of 2019; Yusniel Diaz seems to be the best, currently ranked as the O's #5 at mlb.com, still not in the top 100. He just turned 23 so still time.

The DBacks did a lot better (looks like the Cards may have overpaid but maybe they were confident they'd sign Goldschmidt ... which might not have been such a great idea either but they're the Cards so it will probably work out fine). Luke Weaver was having an excellent season before he got hurt but at least he made it back on the field in Sept so hopefully that means everything is healed. 4 years of control left. Carson Kelly had a very nice season, still 4 years of control left but will be super 2 in 2021. Looks to me like IF Andy Young had a pretty nice season but mlb.com puts him only #23 for AZ. They got a competitive balance pick too.

A package like the Cards gave up for a year of Goldschmidt should be more than enough to get you Mookie if the Red Sox are so inclined. I'd imagine the Red Sox would very much like somebody like Carson Kelly. Anyway, those two packages are almost nothing like each other but the Goldschmidt one is probably a better guide. (I think there's a big difference between grabbing a full season of a star that you hope propels you into the playoffs vs. a deadline deal where you're usually dealing for a guy you (irrationally?) hope can push you deep into the playoffs (if you're the Dodgers) or can drag you over the line to the WC or a weak division title.)

I just looked Betts up

Even before you looked him up, there's no way he was gonna beat 10/$400. I'm not sure why you think he'll get that. Once you take the length/NPV into account, Harper's contract was basically the same as Machado's 10/$300. But the real "problem" for Betts is Trout's extension. If Trout has an AAV around $35-36, it's gonna take a few years before anybody is gonna be able to ask for a substantially higher AAV than Trout. (Unless Rendon really would prefer something like 3/$120 vs 6/$180). Assuming he goes FA after next year, I don't see Mookie doing better than 10/$350-360. That contract would already be taking him through age 37 so the only way he gets a longer contract is if the extras are just "hidden" deferments. Now if he puts up 12 WAR next year or something ...

The non-Trout issue he faces is that he's not a great hitter. Or at least he hasn't established himself as such. Now, he's established himself as being as good as Harper and better than Machado and of course he has way more defensive value than Harper. So I understand that he should blow Harper out of the water (and 10/$350 would be doing so) but teams pay for bats ... and of course if Harper was worth anything like 10/$300 then Trout was worth 10/$500 but that ain't close to what he got.

By the way, just a reminder what an incredible coup the Brewers pulled getting Yelich. Nobody saw the massive breakout coming but here's a guy with 14-15 WAR the last 2 years and the Brewers have him on a 3/$42 contract.
   16. manchestermets Posted: October 07, 2019 at 06:48 AM (#5887262)
If Trout has an AAV around $35-36, it's gonna take a few years before anybody is gonna be able to ask for a substantially higher AAV than Trout.


But Trout clearly extended at a considerable discount - that shouldn't set the market should it?
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 07, 2019 at 09:09 AM (#5887275)
The Yankees do have a rather crowded outfield, and roster, next season, and possibly beyond.

No they don't. 37 y.o. Brett Gardner needs to be resigned to give them a legit CF. You might as well wait for Godot, as wait for Hicks to be healthy.

In any case, no OF is too crowded to add Mookie Betts.

Edit: Oh, understand no circumstances should they extend Judge. He already can't stay on the field, and they control him for three more years anyway.
   18. villageidiom Posted: October 07, 2019 at 09:13 AM (#5887278)
I assume not, because the Red Sox brass would probably have let that leak to the press.
In the Lucchino days, yes, they would have leaked that he's unwilling to make a deal and planning to leave. Epstein's point BITD was that this kind of leak does nothing to help the team, because if they wanted to trade him they are doing so with the open perception that they have less leverage in such a trade. If Mookie is determined to go to free agency it does Boston no good if potential trade partners know it. Leaking it is just petty nonsense. Since Lucchino has stepped down I see this kind of thing less and less.
   19. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 07, 2019 at 09:44 AM (#5887285)
Now, he's established himself as being as good as Harper and better than Machado and of course he has way more defensive value than Harper. So I understand that he should blow Harper out of the water


On the other hand, Betts is older than Harper. Not just older than Harper was when he reached free agency last year, but older than Harper, period.

In fact, as Dan Lee is about to tell us, today is Mookie's birthday.
   20. Sean Forman Posted: October 07, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5887312)
Red Sox letting Betts leave or trading him strikes me as batshit insane. He strikes me as the type of player who will age very well and add more power and patience as he gets older. He's the reason you save money on other players to sign guys like him.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: October 07, 2019 at 11:31 AM (#5887317)
The Yankees do have a rather crowded outfield, and roster, next season, and possibly beyond. Not saying that they wouldn’t find it worth it to pursue Betts, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed, especially if they elect to pursue expensive pitching options.


Aw crap they're just gonna buy Gerrit Cole aren't they?
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 07, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5887327)
Aw crap they're just gonna buy Gerrit Cole aren't they?

They should. Just like they should have traded for Verlander and Cole when they were available. But Hank and Hall are cheap bastards, so who knows?
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 07, 2019 at 12:33 PM (#5887335)
The Yankees do have a rather crowded outfield, and roster, next season, and possibly beyond.
No they don't. 37 y.o. Brett Gardner needs to be resigned to give them a legit CF. You might as well wait for Godot, as wait for Hicks to be healthy. In any case, no OF is too crowded to add Mookie Betts.

Edit: Oh, understand no circumstances should they extend Judge. He already can't stay on the field, and they control him for three more years anyway.
The Yankees aren’t going to just walk away from Hicks & Tauchman. Hicks is under contract for 6 more years, and Tauchman showed more than enough to justify keeping him around next season. And Clint Frazier is still in the wings. Yes, there could be trades or roster moves that free up some room to add Betts, but it isn’t a sure thing, and it seems more likely that the Yankees will pursue pitching rather than put additional resources into the outfield, which is already a strength.

The idea that the Yankees would or should walk away from Aaron Judge after 3 more years is absurd. He’s been an 8-WAR player since his rookie year, when healthy, and is the most popular player on the team, by far. Extending him now would likely save some money long term, but they don’t have to get it done this off-season. However, Judge is likely to do very well in arbitration, so there is no real benefit to delay.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 07, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5887347)
The Yankees aren’t going to just walk away from Hicks & Tauchman. Hicks is under contract for 6 more years, and Tauchman showed more than enough to justify keeping him around next season. And Clint Frazier is still in the wings. Yes, there could be trades or roster moves that free up some room to add Betts, but it isn’t a sure thing, and it seems more likely that the Yankees will pursue pitching rather than put additional resources into the outfield, which is already a strength.

If you let Hicks and Tauchman and Frazier prevent you from signing Mookie Betts, you're insane.

Betts puts up more value in a season and a half than Hicks has in his whole career. Hicks has only played more than 120 Gs in his career twice. His four years with the Yankees he's played 123, 88, 137, and 59.

Tauchman is a 28 year old career minor leaguer who projects to a 90 wRC+ (Steamer). He was already plummeting back to earth when he got hurt. You shouldn't count on him for 2020 anymore than you count on Cameron Maybin.

The idea that the Yankees would or should walk away from Aaron Judge after 3 more years is absurd. He’s been an 8-WAR player since his rookie year, when healthy, and is the most popular player on the team, by far. Extending him now would likely save some money long term, but they don’t have to get it done this off-season. However, Judge is likely to do very well in arbitration, so there is no real benefit to delay.

Well, let's see what he does the next three years. He's already 27.5, and the injury and production trajectory is not good. Over the last 3 years, games: 155, 112, 102, OPS+: 171, 150, 143.

Let him put up a couple of 150 G, 150 OPS+ seasons, and I'll extend him. My bet is by the time he's 30, Judge is a 130 OPS+ hitter who misses 30-50 games a year, with fading defense. Late bloomer don't age well.

The guy you extend is Gleyber Torres. Sign him through age-32 right now, stick him at SS, and enjoy.
   25. Darren Posted: October 07, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5887662)
The O's got a lot of bodies. None were ranked in the top 100 before the start of 2019; Yusniel Diaz seems to be the best, currently ranked as the O's #5 at mlb.com, still not in the top 100. He just turned 23 so still time.


Not sure where you're getting this. BA had him at #37, MLB #64, BP #44. Fairer to say he was about a top 50 prospect.

A package like the Cards gave up for a year of Goldschmidt should be more than enough to get you Mookie if the Red Sox are so inclined.


Why would it be "more than enough"? Mookie's better and younger than Goldschmidt.
   26. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2019 at 12:48 AM (#5887799)
I'm just glad that snapper isn't the Yankees' GM, although I agree with him about Torres.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2019 at 09:18 AM (#5887831)
I'm just glad that snapper isn't the Yankees' GM, although I agree with him about Torres.

Why, you wouldn't want Mookie Betts if he was available? You want to give Judge a lavish extension this early?
   28. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 08, 2019 at 10:23 AM (#5887855)
The Yankees have outfield depth in that they have a lot of bodies they can put out there, and who may even produce for a stretch. But Garnder's age, Hicks' health concerns, Maybin's overall averageness, and Tauchman being a 29-year old with all of half a season of good play in the majors are all legitimate concerns if you're trying to hitch your wagon to them next year.

If Betts is available, the idea that any of them should prohibit the Yankees from signing him seem silly.

   29. karlmagnus Posted: October 08, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5887861)
If the Yankees sign Betts for 10/400, good luck to them. They will have repeated the same mistake they made with Ellsbury, overvaluing the latter years of a player with flashy WaR stats based largely on his fielding prowess. Yes, Betts is better than Ellsbury was, but not enormously better.

The player the Sox should hang onto at all costs is Devers.
   30. Nasty Nate Posted: October 08, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5887862)
You guys are forgetting Ellsbury!
   31. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: October 08, 2019 at 10:39 AM (#5887864)
If you let Hicks and Tauchman and Frazier prevent you from signing Mookie Betts, you're insane.


Go easy on Clapper. He's been in free fall for a few years now.

I love that he's all in on Judge. That guy is one knee injury away from becoming a DH. Then they have to play Stanton in left for 155 games or so a year. Then, he'd get hurt. That would be beautiful, from the standpoint of the rest of the AL East.
Red Sox letting Betts leave or trading him strikes me as batshit insane. He strikes me as the type of player who will age very well and add more power and patience as he gets older.



I doubt he adds more power, unless (ahem) he bulks up. He's not 21. He's pretty much grown into his adult body, hasn't he? He could be another Willie Mays. I see him as a 30 HR guy (if they restrict the flight of the ball, as they seem to be saying they'll do). That's still a great player. I just don't see him ending up with 500 HRs.
   32. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 08, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5887865)
But Trout clearly extended at a considerable discount - that shouldn't set the market should it?
The market has a rational ceiling, and it's well short of the inflated $/WAR figures people use multiplied by Trout's projected WAR. (A) There are a very limited number of teams playing in the market at that level, and (B) the risk just becomes too large as the numbers escalate, regardless of the projections.
   33. Nasty Nate Posted: October 08, 2019 at 10:46 AM (#5887869)
I love that he's all in on Judge. That guy is one knee injury away from becoming a DH. Then they have to play Stanton in left for 155 games or so a year. Then, he'd get hurt. That would be beautiful, from the standpoint of the rest of the AL East.
I like your spirit, I guess. But trying to twist having both Judge and Stanton on a team into a liability instead of a strength is ridiculous.
   34. Joe Bivens, Slack Rumped Rutabaga Head Posted: October 08, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5887876)
But trying to twist having both Judge and Stanton on a team into a liability instead of a strength is ridiculous.


They're big men that miss a lot of games to injury. I don't see Judge having a long career, and Stanton looks like he's on the downside of his.

Re: Betts...he strikes me more as a Yaz type hitter than Mays, the more I think about it. Maybe a bit better than Yaz, OPS-wise, as his career progresses, but he's pretty close to Yaz's stats right now.

edit...Betts and Yaz are about the same size.
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5887887)
Yes, Betts is better than Ellsbury was, but not enormously better.


Oh no, he's enormously better. In the 4 years before the Yankees signed him Ellsbury averaged 96 Gs, 3.7 WAR, and 2 WAA. In the last 4 years Betts has averaged 149 Gs, 8.4 WAR, and 6 WAA.
   36. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 08, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5887889)
I like your spirit, I guess. But trying to twist having both Judge and Stanton on a team into a liability instead of a strength is ridiculous.


Paying gargantuan salaries to both Judge and Stanton is probably a misallocation of resources.

Paying gargantuan salaries to e.g. both Jeter and Rodriguez works fine; you move one of them a slot down the spectrum, with plenty of room to spare. Mookie Betts has the glove to play center and the bat to play a corner; you can work your team around him. It's different when you're mega-paying two players whose best position is DH.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5887892)
It's different when you're mega-paying two players whose best position is DH.

Luckily Stanton is fully capable of playing LF, and Judge is a plus RF.

The Yankees should ride with Gardner in CF for one more season, and be fully prepared to sign Betts, if available. If signing Betts prevents you from resigning Judge, I'm fine with than. I'd rather have both for two seasons, and Betts for 8 more, than Judge alone for 10. I'd much rather have Betts' age 30-37 seasons than Judge's
   38. Nasty Nate Posted: October 08, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5887896)
I like your spirit, I guess. But trying to twist having both Judge and Stanton on a team into a liability instead of a strength is ridiculous.

Paying gargantuan salaries to both Judge and Stanton is probably a misallocation of resources.

Paying gargantuan salaries to e.g. both Jeter and Rodriguez works fine; you move one of them a slot down the spectrum, with plenty of room to spare. Mookie Betts has the glove to play center and the bat to play a corner; you can work your team around him. It's different when you're mega-paying two players whose best position is DH.

OK, but it's still a strength to have both Judge and Stanton on the team going forward. They are 29 and 27 years old, they still have plenty of OF between them.
   39. Buck Coats Posted: October 08, 2019 at 12:46 PM (#5887926)
It's different when you're mega-paying two players whose best position is DH.


Judge is 6 months older than Betts and had more dWAR than Betts this year
   40. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 08, 2019 at 02:16 PM (#5887972)
It's different when you're mega-paying two players whose best position is DH.
Apparently you didn’t watch the recently concluded ALDS against the Twins … or any of the last 3 regular seasons.
   41. rconn23 Posted: October 08, 2019 at 03:57 PM (#5888022)
Judge is an excellent defender and this really is not a debate. All that being said, I'm not what sure I'd do when his contract is up. His size can and likely will be a detriment as he reaches his 30s although he is an excellent athlete.

The comparisons between Ellsbury and Betts are ridiculous. Ellsbury had one complete outlier year and other than that was just a pedestrian offensive player. In three of the last four years, Betts has been a superstar with the bat and his defense is obviously superb.

Betts should be on the Yankees radar. Hicks has six years left on his contract, but that's only $60 million. They took a calculated risk by signing him, and in the grand scheme of baseball finances that's not a lot of money. Tauchmann is likely just a guy and I'm not as high on Frazier as some others are.

As snapper said, they should extend Torres immediately. He's already a superstar and only going to get better. There's some fondness for Didi from Yankee fans, but I want Torres as my everyday SS. He's already a better player than Didi ever will be.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5888055)
There's some fondness for Didi from Yankee fans, but I want Torres as my everyday SS. He's already a better player than Didi ever will be.

Yeah fondness is fine, but paying $15M+ to a player when you have someone better at his position.

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