Okay, so young Barney Aaron he ain’t.
Barney has laughed when he’s seen his name on MLBTradeRumors.com. He doesn’t exactly grind out at-bats (.304 on-base percentage), or hit for power (.666 OPS), but he’s an elite defender at second base and a potential team leader.
“It’s very hard to feel comfortable in this game,” Barney said. “I feel like I’ve underachieved in my production offensively. I feel like I can be better.
“I’m pleased with the way I’ve played defensively, but in no way am I pleased with the results of the team. That’s what it’s all about. Coming into this year, I really, really thought we were going to contend, and I think we all feel (that) we’ve underachieved. There’s a lot of work to do.”
...Factor in the diving plays to his left and his right and the sprints into the outfield, the Cubs should feel good up the middle for years to come with Castro and Barney.
“The defense he’s had all season long has been incredible,” Sveum said. “It’s hard to believe that there’s been a better second baseman in baseball defensively than Barney.
“(This is) a guy that goes out there every single day to try to be a Gold Glover.”
Repoz
Posted: July 12, 2012 at 09:00 PM |
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1. Walt Davis Posted: July 12, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4181464)Still if somebody wanted to give us something of real value for him, I'd trade him in a second.
I'm not buying it. WAR is giving him 4 runs above average on the bases even though he has just 5 stolen bases. In 1986 Rickey Henderson stole 87 bases and that according to WAR was worth 12 runs. Apparently going 5-0 on SB is worth a third of the value of going 87-18 on the basepath.
Unless their secret plan was to move Soriano to 2B
Barney was dead average last year with 1 Rbaser, 1 Rdp and 2 Rfield. Give him his 4 Rbaser this year or 0 Rbaser but 4 Rfield or 2 of each or ... and he's dead average this year.
Anyway, in 1986 Rickey Henderson took the extra base 59% of the time. So far this year Barney has taken the XB 38% of the time. Rickey took 30 bases on all the various gaffes and events in 1986. Barney has taken 9. Rickey had 26 outs on base to Barney's zero. Rickey in 1986 took a total of 151 bases between steals, gaffes, events, and taking the extra base as compared to 26 outs on the basepath. Barney this year has taken 26 bases with no outs so far.
Rickey Henderson 12 RBaser
Darwin Barney 4 RBaser
I have to doubt the baseball intelligence of any man who thought this team was going to contend.
I saw this week the pilot for a new TV series called, I think, Perception, in which Cub fans are called delusional. The quote above is NOT delusional, it is, to use the scientific term, looney
I don't know how well Rickey's numbers add up, but your problem was with Barney. If he's taken those extra bases and never made an out, B-R seems to have him pegged pretty well. You'd expect a guy who plays everyday for 80 games to have several OOB. His big baserunning number clearly comes from not making any outs on the bases.
If +26 bases = ~4 runs, then why wouldn't +17 bases - 3 outs ~= 2 runs?
If it cost Barney as a toss-in with a Dempster/Garza deal to say, the Tigers, to get, say... a Turner or Castellanos, I'd pull that trigger.
I don't think I'd trade Barney straight-up for a lottery ticket though, and standalone, I'm not sure he brings back much more than that.
Given the small volume, that's not statistically different from a "true" upper-60s (or even, if you want to use Rickey's numbers, 75%) break-even rate. Yeah, it's still generally consistent.
If the question is whether Barney has provided value on the bases in 2012, to the extent that his actions are correctly encapsulated in his numbers, yes he has. If the question is whether he should be expected to do that generally (say, for someone trading for him), his numbers in 2012 don't tell us that.
I think the benefit of shopping him now is that the return will be greater in part because he is cheap. If the Cubs don't think he is going to be a part of the next championship team, there is probably a benefit to moving him now when his value is probably highest.
The problem is this is a bit of Billy Beane style "win the trade" rather than "win games." The difference is that the Cubs should have the financial ability and commitment to retain whatever they get in return for Barney which should offset that a bit.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml
It is not bases added times runs/base - outs times runs/out.
For non SB/CS
It is bases added compared to lg avg given opps times runs/base and outs compared to lg avg given opps times runs/base.
+-----------+-------+-----------+-----------+----------+--------+| player_ID | start | bases | outs | Runs | onbase |
+-----------+-------+-----------+-----------+----------+--------+
| barneda01 | 1st | 1.587844 | -1.052435 | 0.735638 | 91 |
| barneda01 | 2nd | 5.018333 | -0.657339 | 1.264788 | 68 |
| barneda01 | 3rd | 4.190181 | -0.665397 | 1.102359 | 45 |
| campato01 | 1st | 5.491520 | 0.390129 | 0.943329 | 63 |
| campato01 | 2nd | -0.204793 | -0.471765 | 0.146445 | 56 |
| campato01 | 3rd | 3.479734 | -0.689288 | 0.969760 | 38 |
+-----------+-------+-----------+-----------+----------+--------+
SB and CS are handled separately.
I don't have a real opinion on those two prospects, but in general terms I think I basically agree with this.
There's been no bigger Barney detractor than me, but he is what he is at this point, in that it's abundantly clear that none of the other 2B options in the organization are seen as viable replacements by the front office. And while Junior Lake isn't embarrassing himself in AA, his ETA still looks like 2014.
So, short of getting some genuine high upside player(s) in return in a trade, I don't see any urgency to move Barney. If he keeps up this level of play (not unlikely), he'll be worth just as much in a trade next year as he is now, and maybe more.
Well, it's only about 60 degrees above freezing, so it's certainly plausible.
Oh, say can you see
A licky boom boom down...
Base running is much more complex. The break even on going first to third is quite a bit higher (and baserunning credit is not in simply going to third. As with DPs you have to adjust for opportunity -- it's much easier to go first to third on a single to right than one to left even though the value of the base and the cost of any outs are the same)
I wish there was a way my team could acquire a player of such quality!
Hell no. That's the kind of player you want to build a club around. I smell an extension.
that sounds to me like folks looking for reasons to not like a guy
but i wanted to share that feedback
32 innings now without giving up a run.
It's at 33 innings and counting now that he left the mound for the day. That's a 1.86 ERA on the season. The .241 BABIP doesn't hurt but he's still pitching well enough to hold a K/BB over 3.
Yep, doesn't add up to me. As we've discussed previously, motivation and effort haven't been Soriano's issues. He's been old and hurt.
If the Cubs are looking for another Anthony Rizzo is probably isn't goig to happen. But if all a team has to do is give a B level prospect or two and get Alfonso for 15 million over three years or so I'd think a team would be silly not to go for it. At 5 million a year Alfonso will either be a great bargain starter or a good to great 4th OF'er.
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