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Monday, December 09, 2013

Morosi: Arms for Sale? White Sox primed to shop young lefties

Why should Hahn trade Sale now? A few reasons:

• It isn’t every offseason that a general manager can start a negotiation by saying, “Chris Sale was the best left-handed starter in baseball (not named Clayton Kershaw) over the past two seasons. And you can have him for the next six seasons at a little more than $55 million — total.”

• The class of free-agent pitchers isn’t especially strong — and will be weakened further if Masahiro Tanaka remains in Japan.

• The White Sox are in the early stages of an extensive rebuild and need young position players with power. They scored the fewest runs of any American League team this year despite playing at what has been one of baseball’s most homer-friendly ballparks. It would be wise to trade Sale’s prime years for multiple long-term assets that would augment a thin farm system (ranked 29th among 30 clubs by Baseball America when the season began).

• Hahn could trade one starter — even Sale — and put together a respectable rotation for 2014. The White Sox finished near the middle of the majors in starters’ ERA this year, with encouraging late-season auditions by right-handers Andre Rienzo and Erik Johnson. A trade would help the White Sox balance their rotation, which projects to include four lefties, as long as veteran John Danks remains healthy.

Thanks to Al.

Repoz Posted: December 09, 2013 at 05:51 AM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: white sox

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   1. Jason Michael(s) Bourn Identity Crisis Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:12 AM (#4613987)
What team has the prospects to trade for Sale? He'd have to fetch a lot more than Shields did, given that Sale is both better than Shields, and under control for longer at a pretty great price. Rightly or not, Sale is also seen as an injury risk, due to his build and mechanics, and I think it might scare teams that could deal for him from putting together a fair offer. I say the Sox will not come particularly close to moving their ace.
   2. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:58 AM (#4613991)
From TFA:
A trade would help the White Sox balance their rotation, which projects to include four lefties, as long as veteran John Danks remains healthy.

I know that the virtue of a "balanced" rotation was once (maybe still is) the conventional wisdom, but is there anything to it? I'd assume that, ignoring park effects and who's playing against you, you simply want to assemble the five best starters you can get, handedness be damned.
   3. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:33 AM (#4614012)
Back in the days when teams had actual benches (rather than merely a backup catcher, utility infielder and two extra outfielders) you would probably want to avoid having an all lefthanded rotation if you could, since teams could and would platoon and send lineups full of righties at you. But even then that only means choosing at least a few righthanders in situations where the talent level is close. You would always, then now and forever, choose the superior lefty over the superior righty. (And vice versa--I think the tendency to pick an inferior lefty over a superior righty is the stronger temptation in baseball.)

In modern times it doesn't matter at all because there's no such thing as a bench anymore.
   4. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:36 AM (#4614014)
Even in the division I would support a trade of MN Twin position prospects for pitchers. Could help both teams.
   5. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:42 AM (#4614017)
I also agree with #2; in theory the White Sox damn well should trade Sale for whatever they can get, because (a) He's a pitcher, so his arm is a ticking time bomb and (b) By the time they get back to being contenders he'll probably either be very expensive or ruined by injuries.

But when you trade one of the best pitchers in the game, signed up cheap for probably as long as his arm's going to last, you have to get something resembling fair value for it, and I can't see anyone getting close. I mean, the Mariners would no doubt love to have Sale but I don't think they have anything worth trading Sale for. The same is probably true of the Yankees. The Royals or Pirates could probably do it, but they'd really have to clean out the top of their prospect list.

So Sale is probably staying put.
   6. zonk Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:19 AM (#4614031)
25 yo aces signed to extremely reasonable long-term contracts are the sort of players rebuilding teams like to acquire not the sort rebuilding teams trade away, I thought...
   7. James Newburg is in awe of Cespedes' CORE STRENGTH Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:26 AM (#4614033)
RE #4: Something like Sano, Pinto and Arcia for Sale?
   8. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:31 AM (#4614036)
#7, Honestly not sure what a good price would be (I suck at trade proposals), but the Twins have plenty of position prospects and overall a highly rated farm system. Don't trade Buxton though. And if you do trade Sano, you need to get a really shiny new toy. What is fair though I will leave to those more knowledgeable that I on such things.

Though in your trade I think both Sano and Pinto are expected to play 3rd and Catcher at least at some point next year, so you are leaving some holes doing that (though pitching costs I realize that).
   9. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:36 AM (#4614042)
zonk: No, you're thinking of 25-year-old star position players. If you have an ace pitcher of any age and you don't expect to compete within about three years, you should trade him if you can get a good return. Pitchers get hurt too much to count on still having around years down the line.
   10. formerly dp Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:43 AM (#4614044)
Pitchers get hurt too much to count on still having around years down the line.
Matt Harvey would wave, but his arm's in a sling.
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2013 at 10:54 AM (#4614048)
I also agree with #2; in theory the White Sox damn well should trade Sale for whatever they can get, because (a) He's a pitcher, so his arm is a ticking time bomb and (b) By the time they get back to being contenders he'll probably either be very expensive or ruined by injuries.

They already know he's not going to be very expensive over the next 5-6 years.
If you have an ace pitcher of any age and you don't expect to compete within about three years

Teams with an ace pitcher shouldn't give themselves a 3-year terrible prognosis generally.
   12. kaline Posted: December 09, 2013 at 11:00 AM (#4614053)
The White Sox ought to expect to contend in the next 3 years. They will even contend next year if (1) Garcia, Abreu and the rotation meet or exceed expectations, (2) they find league average players at C, 2B, 3B and LF and (3) draw a good bullpen year.
   13. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 09, 2013 at 11:28 AM (#4614089)
I tend to be in the camp that says you try to lock down excellent young position players to pre-free agency, long-term deals, and always be open to trading a guy like Sale if you can get the right deal. Of course, you don't have to trade anybody - but you should be open to a conversation with young pitchers, because Lord knows if they are going to be healthy for the next few years.

So, with that said, consider the Boston Red Sox: They have a young-but-veteran lefty in Jon Lester who is going to be a free agent after 2014. It is already being speculated that it will take more than a 5/$100m contract to keep him before FA...and the Red Sox aren't going to do that. So, even though they have a ton of interesting pitching prospects in AA and AAA, the team is probably interested in preparing for a 2015 without Lester in the rotation. They also have Peavy and Dempster, both of whom will definitely be gone after 2014, as well (if not traded before then...).

One thing the Red Sox have a ton of is prospects in AA and AAA, both positional and starting pitching. Would the White Sox do something like:

Sale for Garin Cecchini (the team's #3 prospect, third baseman, 22 yrs old, slash line of .322/.443/.471 last season in A/AA); Felix Doubront (has pitched pretty much two full yrs for the Sox, will be 26 next year, league-average-or-better lefty with pretty good strikeout rates, durable), and Christian Vazquez (one of the team's two well-regarded catching prospects, turned 23 in August, excellent defensive catcher, showed improved bat in AA in 2013, good average, more walks than Ks).

Doubront gives you a durable young, cheap lefty to replace Sale in the rotation. Vazquez and Cecchini, by most accounts, are poised to be major-league ready by the end of 2014/spring training 2015 at (obviously) very cheap money. The Red Sox really like Cecchini, so that's where the pain is for them. Is this enough? Would it take another starting pitching prospect? (Ranaudo? Matt Barnes?)

Bogaerts, Bradley, Henry Owens, and Blake Swihart would seem to be off-limits...Cecchini might be, too, but if you want to get good players, you have to give up good players.
   14. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: December 09, 2013 at 11:33 AM (#4614093)
I could see Ruben crazy enough to dangle Maikel Franco for Chris Sale.
   15. McCoy Posted: December 09, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4614107)
The Cubs can send Castro, Rizzo, and BPJ. How about that?
   16. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 11:53 AM (#4614133)
If Sale is truly on the market there's going to be a lot of suitors. The ChiSox should be willing to ask for the moon from everyone, and be perfectly willing to say no if they don't get the deal they want. I'd demand at least an A and 2 B prospects, and then a couple high ceiling low minors players. Even if you assume Sale will need TJ surgery during his current contract that's still 4.5 to 5 years of service at 11m per year.
   17. zonk Posted: December 09, 2013 at 12:07 PM (#4614158)
No way I'm trading Sale for anything not universally regarded as a top 10 prospect in baseball period... and I probably want more than that (meaning Buxton/Taveras/Bogaerts/whatever + MORE).

I get the pitchers get hurt stuff.... but this is probably the 2nd best LH SP in baseball who is locked for 6 years with an enormously wonderful contract. To me - it's worth even more than a Johan Santana from once upon a time because you don't have to even open up the wallet the following offseason.

I highly doubt the Sox will trade him, but if I were running the team -- my answer would be:

1) If you don't have a universally regarded top 10 in all of baseball prospect, don't even bother.... unless you're basically going to give me #s 1 through 5 from your org.

2) Plan on something like 1) above PLUS more.... I'd say 2 more guys from your orgs' top 10.

3) I'll probably want some 20something filler with upside as well.

I mean, this is a guy with back-to-back 200 IP seasons of ERA+ of 140. He's 25. He's signed to a deal that has to be one of the team-friendliest in all of baseball (the last 2 years are even team options).

If I'm the Sox, I wouldn't trade him just because I doubt anyone pays that price.... but it's the price I would insist upon.
   18. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: December 09, 2013 at 12:17 PM (#4614174)
As a Sox fan the idea of trading Sale has danced around in my head, but I don't see a team out there with the prospects to pull it off. None of the trades listed above particularly excite me.

Sale's quite young, he's got a ridiculously inexpensive contract, and he plays for a team that handles pitching injuries pretty well (knock on wood). Despite their offensive struggles, the Sox don't need to trade him. If someone offered Stanton, Buxton, & Profar I'd do it but those three don't play on the same team.

Now, I would be open to dealing someone like, say, Quintana. He wouldn't generate the return of a Sale, but a 24 YO with a 118 ERA+ has to be somewhat valuable on the market (and he won't get expensive until 2016).
   19. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4614214)
Why would you throw away a cheap, good, young player? The point is not to have the best farm system. The point is to win.
   20. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 12:44 PM (#4614218)
You were answering your own question there, right?

zonk/Mark: I'd trade Sale for Profar and some lesser prospects in a heartbeat. I doubt Texas would make that trade, though.

If the Pirates offered Polanco, Taillon and some lesser (but still high-upside) prospects I'd probably take that. St. Louis could have him for Taveras-plus. And so on. But I think zonk is on the right track. I think those are the sorts of deals the White Sox will be asking for, I think no one will come close to satisfying them, and thus Sale will stay put.
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:01 PM (#4614244)
If the Pirates offered Polanco, Taillon and some lesser (but still high-upside) prospects I'd probably take that.


That's probably fair on talent, but I'd still prefer not to make those types of deals.
   22. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:11 PM (#4614256)
I don't want the Pirates trading Polanco for anybody, period, as a Pirates fan. I'm fairly terrified they're about to repeat Dayton Moore's blunder and trade him AND Taillon AND another prospect for David Price.
   23. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:17 PM (#4614265)
You were answering your own question there, right?

You seem pretty confident in your ability to project team performance multiple years out. I'm a little bit less so. I don't think it takes too much squinting to see a scenario where the Sox are a mid-to-high-80s win team by 2015. The pitching staff is mostly good enough right now -- beyond Sale, Quintana is something between a league average innings eater and a #2 starter; Hector Santiago just put up a 3 WAR season, although he's got some control and durability issues; Erik Johnson and Danks seem like more than acceptable back-end options. The offense is, admittedly, a train wreck, but as mentioned above, a few wise FA additions + Garcia and Abreu blossoming probably gets them to a league-average offense.

The baseline for a Sale deal would have to be the Shields return, although I think you can make the case that Sale should bring more, given his performance, age and contract. As such, I don't think the OOTP platter of non-elite prospects gets it done. The prospects mentioned in #20 make more sense, although that takes two ballsy GMs to make such a deal.
   24. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4614283)
Sale should bring much, much more than James Shields. He's a better pitcher signed to a cheaper contract for more years. The value of what you're getting in Chris Sale is probably triple what you're getting in James Shields.

Of course the Royals comically overpaid for Shields. But I think most baseball people would not trade Chris Sale for Wil Myers. It would have to be Wil Myers plus two other prospects almost as good, at least.
   25. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:38 PM (#4614300)
I don't want the Pirates trading Polanco for anybody, period, as a Pirates fan.

Rumor over the summer was the Marlins asked for Polanco in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates balked. If that's true, no way is he getting traded for Sale.
   26. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:40 PM (#4614302)
I'm sorry, but I find the idea of trading Sale ####### ridiculous. He's exactly the kind of player that the Sox should be trying to acquire, not trade away.
   27. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 09, 2013 at 01:42 PM (#4614305)
I doubt Atlanta matches up for the position prospects they need - they're unlikely to be moving Heyward or Freeman - but it's worth a phone call.
   28. zonk Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4614359)
According to Robothal, the Sale talk is a lot more about other teams inquiring than it is the Sox shopping....
   29. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4614368)
Rumor over the summer was the Marlins asked for Polanco in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates balked. If that's true, no way is he getting traded for Sale.


That was then, this is now. It sounds like Burnett isn't coming back, Liriano might turn into a pumpkin at any moment, and the Pirates find themselves in dire need of a good starting pitcher--and a return to 75 wins in 2014, possible if the pitching implodes, would almost certainly cost Huntington his job. He's got to be sorely tempted to pay whatever it takes to get Price. Here's hoping he resists.

I thought the Pirates should not have hesitated to outbid the Giants for Hudson, or that failing, the Twins for Hughes, but I confess the Pirates' front office knows a lot more about those situations than I do.
   30. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4614406)
Rumor over the summer was the Marlins asked for Polanco in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton, and the Pirates balked.


I don't think it's true; I don't think the Marlins were ever all that interested in trading Stanton. But if it was true, the Pirates made a huge mistake in the short term, and maybe even in the long term, by not pulling the trigger. It's going to be 2015, more than likely, before Polanco is ready to return value at the major league level; Stanton's returning value right now and is under club control for three more years. The Pirates' window of opportunity isn't going to get any bigger (especially if the Cubs' young prospects develop) and the team really isn't all that young. If a deal including Polanco nets you a substantial upgrade in present value, I think you have to make it when you are as close as the Pirates are.

-- MWE
   31. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4614419)
It sounds like Burnett isn't coming back, Liriano might turn into a pumpkin at any moment, and the Pirates find themselves in dire need of a good starting pitcher


I wouldn't say it's as dire as the need to get a quality corner bat and/or a quality shortstop. Liriano's revival in 2013 wasn't a fluke; his performance was in line with what he did in 2010 and I don't see any reason to anticipate a significant regression in the absence of an injury (which is what happened in 2011). I'd expect Liriano/Cole/Morton to collectively be at least as good in 2014. Getting some depth until Taillon is ready wouldn't be a bad idea, but there's no need that I can see to break the bank for a starting pitcher.

Huntington doesn't do bold, so I expect that Loney or someone of that ilk is about as good as we'll see.

-- MWE
   32. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 09, 2013 at 02:52 PM (#4614434)
I'm sorry, but I find the idea of trading Sale ####### ridiculous. He's exactly the kind of player that the Sox should be trying to acquire, not trade away.


On the surface, trading a talented 24-yr-old is ridiculous - but it depends on two things: how you assess the likelihood of certain risks coming to fruition, and (of course) what the White Sox would be getting in return. Consider this on both fronts:

First, likelihood of Sale giving the White Sox six really good years between 2014 and 2019 (when the final team option year ends). It's an awesome contract for the team, assuming Sale pitches well. But what are the chances he is going to be "Chris Sale of 2013", or anything close to it, in 2019? I just looked at the 25 starting pitchers in the AL six years ago, based on WAR. Some were really young, some were veterans, lefties, righties, whatever. These were pretty much the best starting pitchers of six years ago - many of whom we would be talking about the same way we are talking about Sale today. Here they are:

Josh Beckett
CC Sabathia*
John Lackey
Javier Vazquez
Roberto Hernandez
Mark Buehrle*
Scott Kazmir*
Erik Bedard*
James Shields
Chien-Ming Wang
Johan Santana*
Kelvim Escobar
Dan Haren
Rafael Betancourt
Justin Verlander
Gil Meche
Daisuke Matsuzaka
J.J. Putz
Jeremy Guthrie
Curt Schilling
Jon Garland
Felix Hernandez
Andy Pettitte*
Joe Blanton
Roy Halladay

I would take Sabathia, King Felix, Verlander, and Shields (I like Shields more than many of this board seem to, I think). That's it...and there are a number of guys on this list that would have been seen as young and virtually untradable, like Santana, Lackey, and Beckett. If you want to argue that you think Sale is one of those outliers whose arm is durable at a high level of performance, then I hope you're right. Even though I am not a White Sox fan, baseball would be better if more guys were able to be Verlander or King Felix. The health and pitchers is so fragile, though, that if somebody wants to take a chance that Sale is one of the outliers, and you can get them to give you a big return, I think you look at it...

Second, what is the return on a trade? Some folks above are saying it would take three "A" prospects to get a deal done (one example was Xander Bogaerts). Let's take Bogaerts, who is probably a top three prospect, right? He turned 21 on October 1st, so 2014 is his Age 21 year.

- As a good-fielding 19-year-old SS, he went .307/.373/.523 between high-A and AA.
- As a player who successfully played between 3B and SS in his Age 20 season, he went .297/.388/.477. He has consistently been the youngest position player in his league, and has consistently dominated each level after short adjustment periods.
- Then, he gets called up in the midst of a playoff run and postseason, as a 20-year-old, and ends up hitting .250 in the regular season, and .296/.412/.481 in the postseason.

The record of position players who do what Bogaerts has already done, for their age, is very short, and remarkable. Add to the fact that he has come up as a capable SS, and he is a unique talent, and, I would argue, more likely to deliver high value over the next six years than Sale...at a fraction of the price of Sale over those same six years.

The Red Sox would never make such a trade (nor would the Twins with Buxton, for similar reasons) for Sale - but if they were willing to do so, the White Sox would have to carefully listen to it. There are no guarantees in projecting future performance, but there are probabilities - and there is a good probability that in six years somebody would look at you as crazy that you said back in December of 2013 that you would never trade Jason Sale for Xander Bogaerts plus stuff.
   33. madvillain Posted: December 09, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4614450)

According to Robothal, the Sale talk is a lot more about other teams inquiring than it is the Sox shopping....


Good, he's not a player I'd actively be shopping, not least because when you signed him to that team (and player) friendly deal it was with more than a hint of "we aren't looking to trade you". Sale has repeatedly said how comfortable he feels in Chicago and that's partly why he signed the deal. Shopping him sends the wrong message to any future (and current) Sox.

That said, if someone wants to wildly overpay with two "A" position player prospects, Hahn should be all ears. The Sox can find pitching, it's position players they struggle to develop in house.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:40 PM (#4614714)
Most of these guys are not like Sale at all. In 2008 ... first WAR number is years 2008-13; second WAR number is ages 25-30, the ages covered by Sale's contract

Josh Beckett -- 28, similar enough, 13.5 WAR from 2008-13, $82 M ... 20 WAR from 25-30
CC Sabathia* -- 27, similar enough, 29 WAR, $121 M ... 36 WAR
John Lackey -- 29, good pitcher but 4 years older, 8 WAR, $82 M .. 23 WAR
Javier Vazquez -- 31, bad comp ... 23 WAR
Roberto Hernandez -- closer
Mark Buehrle* -- bad comp, 23 WAR ... 27 WAR
Scott Kazmir* -- 24, similar enough, 4 WAR, $37 M
Erik Bedard* -- 29 and fragile ... 16 WAR
James Shields -- 26, similar enough, 16 WAR, $25 M ... 17 WAR
Chien-Ming Wang -- bad comp
Johan Santana* -- 29, still put up 15 WAR despite missing essentially 3 years ... 39 WAR
Kelvim Escobar -- oh c'mon
Dan Haren -- 27, similar enough, 20 WAR, $58 ... 28 WAR
Rafael Betancourt -- closer
Justin Verlander -- 25, similar enough, 33 WAR, $64 M ... 33 WAR
Gil Meche -- 29, bad comp ... 12 WAR
Daisuke Matsuzaka -- 27, similar enough I suppose, ugh
J.J. Putz -- closer
Jeremy Guthrie -- bad comp
Curt Schilling -- bad comp
Jon Garland -- bad comp
Felix Hernandez -- bad comp (younger and better), 31 WAR
Andy Pettitte* -- bad comp
Joe Blanton -- bad comp,
Roy Halladay -- 31, bad comp, 30 WAR ... 32 WAR

So I see a lot of quite bad comps, a bunch of guys who put up 20-30 WAR from ages 25-30 (sample selection bias), even the questionable guys put up 10-15 WAR and Scott Kazmir.

Again, the next 6 years of Sale will cost $55 M with 2/$25 of that being team options that can be walked away from if he does get hurt. A mere 5 WAR over the next 4 years (options not exercised) or about 10 WAR over 6 years are the break-even point. If you don't consider this contract a bargain for just about any starting pitcher the good side of Jason Varga much less one of Sale's quality then you're never going to build a good ML pitching staff.

Using bWAR, there are 8 pitchers from 2000 on who have had at least 11 WAR at ages 23-24. Sale is #2 behind Felix. The rest of the list is Kershaw, Zambrano, Zito, Oswalt, Danks and Dontrelle.

Felix 25-27 15 WAR
Kershaw 25 8 WAR
Zambrano 25-30 20 WAR
Zito 25-30 18 WAR
Oswalt 25-30 29 WAR
Danks 25-28 8 WAR
Willis 25-29 -1 WAR

So one disaster in Willis and one guy you might walk away from after 4 years in Danks (but given the cost of average pitching maybe not). And 5 guys who would be massive bargains at 6/$55.

From ages 23-24, from 2000 on there are also 8 position players with 11+ WAR.

Pujols 25-30 52 WAR, $81 M
Longoria 25-27 16 WAR, $12.5
Andruw 25-30 30 WAR
Glaus 25-30 18 WAR
Wright 25-30 27 WAR, $63 M
Sizemore 25-30 8 WAR, $21 M
Markakis 25-29 9 WAR, $48 M
Hanley 25-29, 17 WAR, $54 M

You've got Pujols (vs. Felix/Kershaw who are too young) and no Dontrelle but those lists aren't dramatically different. Sale's not as good a bargain as Longoria but is about the same as Hanley-Wright (probably worse than Wright).

Sale won't likely be Felix or Kershaw -- they were both better younger -- but Oswalt is a distinct possibility and Zito/Zambrano seems a reasonable expectation. What would you have traded for Hanley back in the 2008-9 offseason? What about Longoria in 2010-11? Sizemore? Deduct a bit from that for both injury risk and lack of AROD/Pujols upside and you've got a reasonable price for Sale.

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