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Friday, June 22, 2012

Morosi: Baseball eyes Jays’ 2010 draft class

Or as Morosi twaddles out…“Moneyball draft of 2002 was largely a failure. Now the #BlueJays are poised to change the game.”

Toronto’s theory has become baseball’s latest experiment, and executives with other clubs — not to mention a few owners — are paying attention to the Blue Jays’ 2010 draft. The names might as well be known as the Anti-Moneyball class: Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski, Griffin Murphy, Kellen Sweeney and Justin Nicolino.

“Maybe,” Syndergaard said one recent afternoon, “they’ll make a movie about us.”

We can’t say — yet — that the Blue Jays have devised an ideal system. Five of those top seven picks were high-school seniors, meaning it will take longer for them to develop. But if a counter-revolution is afoot, the center of the uprising is a minor-league ballpark in Lansing, Mich., named after the Thomas M. Cooley Law School. That’s where the most prized prospects of the group — Sanchez, Syndergaard and Nicolino — are spending the summer.

...“That’s the most beneficial way,” Syndergaard said of the Jays’ scouting strategy. “Nothing against Billy Beane, I guess, but I don’t think you can generate players with a computer.”

...It will take years to evaluate the Anti-Moneyballers of 2010, just like it has taken a decade to reveal the full wisdom of Oakland’s 2002 draft. But if you turn on your television a few Octobers from now to find Sanchez, Syndergaard or Nicolino starting a World Series game, the casting call is sure to follow.

Repoz Posted: June 22, 2012 at 11:15 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, draft

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   1. Boxkutter Posted: June 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4163693)
I almost drafted Wojciechowski in my DMB League two years ago when he came out. I am glad I didn't. He has been pretty 'blah' since turning pro. Now he is repeating Hi-A, in a pitcher's league, putting up very pedestrian numbers.... just like his first time in the same league. Except now he is 23, which I consider old for the league.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 22, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4163699)
Yea, getting three MLB starters, including one All-Star in one draft is a huge failure. I'll eat my hat if the Jays get that kind of return - and I really like the guys they picked.
   3. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4163712)
I find it very unlikely that someone named "Noah Syndergaard" or "Asher Wojciechowski" will ever be a good player. On the other hand that's what I said about Paul Goldschmidt.
   4. lonestarball Posted: June 22, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4163715)
Yea, getting three MLB starters, including one All-Star in one draft is a huge failure.


Who is the third MLB starter -- Teahen? Its hard to say he really qualifies as a success.

   5. Ryan Lind Posted: June 22, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4163776)
Groan.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 22, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4163785)

Who is the third MLB starter -- Teahen? Its hard to say he really qualifies as a success.


He was a MLB starter for five seasons, and posted 5.5 WAR combined his top two seasons. I doubt the third best guy from this Jays draft is that useful.
   7. Swedish Chef Posted: June 22, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4163789)
The names might as well be known as the Anti-Moneyball class: Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski, Griffin Murphy, Kellen Sweeney and Justin Nicolino.

"Scratch the board, just pick the guy with the coolest name"
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 22, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4163790)
But if a counter-revolution is afoot, the center of the uprising is a minor-league ballpark in Lansing, Mich., named after the Thomas M. Cooley Law School.


That's a really weird aside. Was Cooley a counter-revolutionary or something?

Maybe someday these guys will play in the Rogers Centre - named after Rogers Communications, a huge telecom conglomerate.
   9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 22, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4163895)
but I don’t think you can generate players with a computer

This might be the dopiest thing ever said about Moneyball.
   10. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4163897)
but I don’t think you can generate players with a computer
This might be the dopiest thing ever said about Moneyball.


I'm fairly sure he was referring to Weird Science.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: June 22, 2012 at 10:56 PM (#4164147)
I don’t think you can generate players with a computer.”

I'd say Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski, Griffin Murphy, Kellen Sweeney and Justin Nicolino sound exactly like OOTP computer generated names.

Deck McGuire would have been Tank McNamara but they were worried about copyright.

In fairness, if there was a problem with the "Moneyball draft" it was Beane's aversion to high school pitchers. The pick right after Swisher was Hamels; the pick right after Blanton was Cain. Of course the White Sox, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs, Indians and Braves also all passed over Cain (with everybody but the White Sox and Cubs, natch, grabbing useful MLers). Of course Beane would have traded Hamels and Cain 3 years ago so it's kind of a moot point.

In that particular first round, turns out the three highest WAR are from HS pitchers (Greinke at #6) and Kazmir makes a solid showing.
   12. McCoy Posted: June 22, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4164167)
I'd love to see them make a movie about the Cubs 2005 draft.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: June 23, 2012 at 01:40 AM (#4164196)
I'd love to see them make a movie about the Cubs 2005 draft.

Haven't they done a remake of the Poseidon Adventure already?

For those who don't know (I didn't), only one player from that draft has made the majors -- Donnie Veal, a 2nd round pick who threw 16 innings for the Pirates in 2009 with a 7.16 ERA (-.3 WAR).
   14. McCoy Posted: June 23, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4164286)
Yep, our number one draft pick, Mark Pawelek, was drafted out of high school and is now playing in an independent league and doing rather horribly.

Donnie Veal, the Cubs second pick, is in the White Sox organization and his sporting a neat looking ERA to go with some bad peripherals. To get to the second draft pick still in organized baseball you have to go all the way to the Cubs 15th pick. Tyler Graham is still banging away in AAA for the Giants, the team that drafted him in 2006. Though a .616 OPS might not constitute banging away. Almost all of the players drafted were gone by 2008. Leonardo daVinci Ware is the third player drafted that is still in organized ball. He didn't sign with the Cubs and was redrafted the next year by the Braves. Hi still in the Braves' system and playing horribly. Michael Brenly is the 4th player that was drafted and is still in OB and he still is with the Cubs. He just got to AA this year but technically it doesn't count since he didn't sign in 2005 and was redrafted by the Cubs in 2008. Oh, and he is Bob Brenly's son. The last player still in organized ball from that draft is Corey Madden but like the others he didn't sign with the Cubs that year. Instead Florida drafted him the next year and he is still in their system.

So out of all the players the Cubs actually signed only one of them is still actually playing organized ball somewhere with two players playing in independent leagues.
   15. Greg K Posted: June 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4164296)
However they eventually turn out, following the Lansing Lugnuts this year must be oodles of fun.
They are 47-23

The rotation has
Justin Nicolino (20) - 52 IP, 1.21 ERA, 4.8 K/BB
Aaron Sanchez (19) - 48 IP, 0.77 ERA, 1.9 K/BB
Noah Snydergaard (19) - 43 IP, 3.92 ERA, 3.8 K/BB

and 2011 Draft Pick Anthony DeScalfani (22) 51 IP, 2.63 ERA, 3.92 K/BB

EDIT: What's been most surprising for me about Lansing has been SS Andrew Burns. I had never heard of him but he's having a nice season...does anyone who knows anything have an opinion on him? Worth keeping an eye on or some schlub having a good couple of months?
   16. McCoy Posted: June 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4164298)
Here is another nifty little factoid about the Cubs. In 2001 the Cubs had the 2nd pick in the draft and they used it on Mark Prior. Since then the Cubs first pick has failed to make even an appearance in the Majors until Tyler Colvin snapped that streak in 2009. He was the 2006 1st round draft pick and Cashner, the 2008 first round pick, came up in 2010.
   17. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4187918)
Wojciechowski was just traded as part of the least interesting 10 player deal in baseball history. From MLBTR;

Major Leaguers Francisco Cordero and Ben Francisco, minor leaguers Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojciechowski, David Rollins and Carlos Perez, and a player to be named. The Astros send Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ and David Carpenter to Toronto in the trade.
   18. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4187934)
I don't get that trade at all. That seems a no-brainer for Houston.
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4187941)
When you've got a chance to trade a sixth starter, a reliever, and a guy nobody's ever heard of for a fifth outfielder, a reliever, and five guys nobody's ever heard of, you make that trade every time.
   20. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4187944)
When you've got a chance to trade a sixth starter, a reliever, and a guy nobody's ever heard of for a fifth outfielder, a reliever, and five guys nobody's ever heard of, you make that trade every time.

Seems like the Astros are getting a few interesting prospects and the Blue Jays are getting rid of a couple of guys the Astros might just cut and some meh arms for the pen and a meh starting pitcher. What am I missing here? Are the Jays saving a lot of cash?
   21. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4187950)
Your assessment sounds right to me.

This looks more like an NBA trade than a basketball trade. Brandon Lyon, JA Happ, and a second-round draft pick for Francisco Cordero's Expiring Contract, Ben Francisco's Makeweight Salary, and the rights to two foreigners stashed overseas.
   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4187951)
Kellen Sweeney


I really liked him in the draft, but man, he can't stay healthy, and he hasn't hit at all.

What am I missing here?


The Jays have like seventeen SPs on the DL right now, and while a guy like Happ isn't great, he's probably still an upgrade on a random warm body from AA.

Musgrove throws hard, and Perez isn't a bad catching prospect, so that kind of feels like a win for Houston to me.
   23. JJ1986 Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4187954)
What am I missing here? Are the Jays saving a lot of cash?


Happ must have more trade value than I (or anybody) realized. Some of the Blue Jays prospects are decent.
   24. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4187956)
Yea, getting three MLB starters, including one All-Star in one draft is a huge failure.


The thing is, neither Swisher nor Blanton were Moneyball guys. They were blue chip prospects hat anybody would have drafted at those spots, and the A's paid market price for them. The moneyball guys from that draft, like Jeremy Whats-his-name were total busts.
   25. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4187961)
I guess Happ is actually better than I thought. His ERA is ugly but he strikes guys out and may benefit from having a better team behind him. Lyon is cromulent but an upgrade on Cordero and maybe they like Carpenter's arm for the future. Still, this has to be the least exciting 10 player trade in history.
   26. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 20, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4187975)
The thing is, neither Swisher nor Blanton were Moneyball guys. They were blue chip prospects hat anybody would have drafted at those spots, and the A's paid market price for them. The moneyball guys from that draft, like Jeremy Whats-his-name were total busts.

Hey, Jeremy Brown's three career hits are three more than those jeans-sellers ever thought he'd have.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4187980)
The moneyball guys from that draft, like Jeremy Whats-his-name were total busts.


Jeremy Brown? He played in the majors, which is more than eight of the other ten guys taken in the sandwich round that year ever did. He even did fairly well in his limited action - 3-for-10 with a walk and two doubles.

If Jeremy Brown is a "total bust", then what's the right word for Blair Johnson, the guy my hometown Pirates took with the first pick of the second round? Scouts loved the #### out of him, and he only made it to AA by the skin of his teeth. Put up a double-digit ERA in Altoona at the tail end of that year, then fell out of affiliated ball entirely.
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4187986)
Still, this has to be the least exciting 10 player trade in history.


Well, what are the other contenders? I know Kiner-to-the-Cubs was a 10-player deal. Is there a good way to look that up?
   29. JJ1986 Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4187988)
Well, what are the other contenders? I know Kiner-to-the-Cubs was a 10-player deal. Is there a good way to look that up?


I thought the first Ausmus Tigers/Astros deal might have been but it was only nine guys.
   30. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4187989)
Hey, Jeremy Brown's three career hits are three more than those jeans-sellers ever thought he'd have.


Has there ever been a good story written about why he walked away? He wasn't going to be a star but 27 year old catchers with a career .800 OPS in the minors would seem like the type of player who would have found a job somewhere. In an alternate universe he's carving out a Doug Mirabelli career.
   31. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4187990)
I can't think of another one off the top of my head. Among 9-player trades Brad Ausmus, Jose Lima, Trever Miller, C.J. Nitkowski, and Daryle Ward for Doug Brocail, Brian Hunter, Todd Jones, and Orlando Miller was a massive blockbuster by comparison.
   32. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4187991)
Found one more:

June 15, 1976 - The Orioles trade Doyle Alexander, Jimmy Freeman, Elrod Hendricks, Ken Holtzman, and Grant Jackson to the Yankees for Rick Dempsey, Tippy Martinez, Rudy May, Scott McGregor and Dave Pagan.

Man, that's a crappy deal. What the hell was Baltimore thinking?
   33. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4187993)
December 28, 1994: Houston acquires OF Derek Bell, P Doug Brocail, IF Ricky Gutierez, P Pedro (the other) Martinez, OF Phil Plantier and IF Craig Shipley from San Diego for 3B Ken Caminiti, SS Andujar Cedeno, OF Steve Finley, 1B Roberto Petagine, P Brian Williams and a PTBNL (P Sean Fesh)

12 players. Randy Smith was known for huge friggin trades.
   34. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4187996)
Dammit! I looked up Brad Ausmus and found two 5-player trades, a 6-player trade, a 7-player trade, and a 9-player trade, but didn't think to look further into the mid-1990s Padres-Tigers and Padres-Astros canon. Both Doug Brocail and Andujar Cedeno were later involved in Ausmus trades.
   35. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4187998)
Kinda cheating since its a three team deal, but:

December 11, 2008: New York Mets acquire P J.J. Putz, P Sean Green, OF Jeremy Reed; Seattle acquires OF Franklin Gutierrez, P Aaron Heilman, P Jason Vargas, OF Endy Chavez, P Maikel Cleto, 1B Mike Carp, and OF Ezequiel Carrera; Cleveland acquires P Joe Smith and IF Luis Valbena.

12 players.
   36. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4188003)
Another three team deal:

July 27, 2011: Toronto receives OF Colby Rasmus, P Trever Miller, P Brian Tallet, 3B Mark Teahen, P PJ Walters; St. Louis receives P Mark Rzepczynski, P Edwin Jackson, P Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson; White Sox receive P Jason Frasor and P Zach Stewart

Some report it as one big deal, some report it as two separate transactions though.
   37. philphan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4188111)
1954: New York Yankees traded Harry Byrd, Ted Del Guercio, Don Leppert, Jim McDonald, Bill Miller, Willy Miranda, Kal Segrist, Hal Smith, Gus Triandos, and Gene Woodling to the Baltimore Orioles for Mike Blyzka, Jim Fridley, Billy Hunter, Darrell Johnson, Dick Kryhoski, Don Larsen, and Bob Turley.
   38. philphan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4188130)
1980: The San Diego Padres traded Rollie Fingers, Bob Geren, Bob Shirley, and Gene Tenace to the St. Louis Cardinals for Terry Kennedy, John Littlefield, Al Olmsted, Mike Phillips, Kim Seaman, Steve Swisher and John Urrea.
   39. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4188133)
November 20 1957: Kansas City Athletics trade Billy Martin, Mickey McDermott, Tom Morgan, Lou Skizas, Tim Thompson and Gus Zernial to the Detroit Tigers for Kent Hadley, Frank House, Duke Maas, Jim Small, John Tsitouris, Bill Tuttle and a PTBNL (Jim McManus).
   40. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4188136)
February 19, 1957: Kansas City Athletics trade Wayne Belardi, Art Ditmar, Jack McMahan, Bobby Shantz and two PTBNLs (Curt Roberts and Clete Boyer) to the New York Yankees for Rip Coleman, Milt Graff, Billy Hunter, Mickey McDermott, Tom Morgan, Irv Noren and a PTBNL (Jack Urban).

   41. philphan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4188148)
And one of my all-time favorite trades, a 4-team trade from 1977:

Atlanta Braves sent Willie Montanez to the New York Mets; the Texas Rangers sent Tommy Boggs, Adrian Devine, and Eddie Miller to the Braves, Tom Grieve and Ken Henderson to the Mets, and Bert Blyleven to the Pittsburgh Pirates; the Pirates sent Nelson Norman and Al Oliver to the Rangers; and the Mets sent Jon Matlack to the Rangers and John Milner to the Pirates.

But I seem to recall a massive trade involving the Angels in the late 1960s or early 1970s, and I just cannot find it...
   42. philphan Posted: July 20, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4188169)
Ah, 1973 was the deal I was thinking of, but it was only 9 players:

The Angels traded Steve Barber, Ken Berry, Art Kusnyer, Clyde Wright and cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for Ollie Brown, Joe Lahoud, Skip Lockwood, Ellie Rodriguez and Gary Ryerson.

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