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Monday, May 07, 2012

Morosi: Closers a worry for major league clubs

~WARNING!~ Plesacian thought patterns detected in this area.

Valverde blew his second save of this season Saturday, when he surrendered a colossal Adam Dunn home run that physicists say will land in Canada sometime this week. He displayed curious pitch selection during the outing: eight consecutive fastballs, followed by six consecutive splitters.

“He’ll be fine,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland insisted Sunday, after Valverde allowed the tying run to reach base before closing out a 3-1 win over the White Sox. “It’s a combination: He’s struggling a little bit, and expectations are so high on him because we’re spoiled after last year. We knew going into the season he wasn’t going to be 49-for-49.

“(Closers) are so important. That’s why they get paid a lot. People don’t realize what a value it is when you’ve got a guy who can get outs 25, 26 and 27. A lot of good pitchers — in both leagues — can’t get 25, 26 and 27. They might get you up to the point and make it look easy. But there are a lot of good pitchers who can’t get those last three.”

Repoz Posted: May 07, 2012 at 06:26 AM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: history

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1. Leroy Kincaid Posted: May 07, 2012 at 07:06 AM (#4125176)

Valverde blew his second save of this season Saturday, when he surrendered a colossal Adam Dunn home run that physicists say will land in Canada sometime this week.

Wouldn't the amount of velocity needed for the ball to reach Canada necessarily mean it would have to get there much sooner?

2. Dale H. Posted: May 07, 2012 at 07:11 AM (#4125177)

Dunn hits 'em pretty high.

3. base ball chick Posted: May 07, 2012 at 08:04 AM (#4125188)

hello there worrying clubs!!!

all yall callin the astros bout brett myers? he's real cheap, only 5/6 of 11 mill - line forms on the right

4. The Chanumas Spirit Posted: May 07, 2012 at 08:43 AM (#4125192)

Why would a team need a closer? After all, it's obvious that the new market inefficiency is pitching first basemen

5. Nasty Nate Posted: May 07, 2012 at 09:58 AM (#4125232)

"A lot of good pitchers — in both leagues — can’t get 25, 26 and 27....

... but we are more than happy to use them for outs 25, 26 & 27 when they have even less margin for error than a closer does."

6. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: May 07, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4125237)

Bah -- who needs a troublemaker like Myers for $5M when you could have a slightly used Kevin Gregg for only $2-3M? He had 37 saves a couple years ago. 37!!

7. JJ1986 Posted: May 07, 2012 at 10:07 AM (#4125238)

The Angels just lost Scott Downs and LaTroy Hawkins yesterday. That may not sound like much, but those were their top two relievers.

8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4125273)

Wouldn't the amount of velocity needed for the ball to reach Canada necessarily mean it would have to get there much sooner?

It's going to orbit a few times first.

9. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4125282)

Nine closers made it to the All-Star Game last year.

Four of them aren’t closing right now.

The Tampa Bay Rays, second only to Baltimore in the AL...have a similarly unheralded closer: Fernando Rodney, who ranks second in the league with nine saves. Rodney was a wise buy-low for Tampa Bay after two unspectacular seasons with the Angels — who, by the way, have been searching for late-inning help. He’s subbing for the oft-injured Kyle Farnsworth, who saved 25 games for the Rays last year but has yet to pitch in 2012.

As strange as this might sound, the Yankees should be fine in the ninth without Rivera. David Robertson doesn’t have Rivera’s decade and a half of dominance, but his stuff is imposing on its own.

10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4125308)

Shouldn't these sorts of comments be a sign that closing is not all that special? The guys who were great last year suck this year, the top two teams in the AL East feature Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney and the Yankees "should be fine" even losing the greatest closer ever. Isn't there a point where someone notices this stuff and thinks "hey, the trick is to find good relief pitchers"?

And to expand, with very few exceptions, there are no "good relief pitchers", just relief pitchers who are pitching good right now.

The species is so unreliable, that outside of 20-30 truly elite guys, you might as well just assemble a collection of live arms and mix and match.

11. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4125311)

You mean 20-30 truly elite guys in baseball history, right?

12. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4125316)

And to expand, with very few exceptions, there are no "good relief pitchers", just relief pitchers who are pitching good right now.

The species is so unreliable, that outside of 20-30 truly elite guys, you might as well just assemble a collection of live arms and mix and match.

I believe that's the reason for the fellating given to Rivera--he's been at that level for 15 years. THAT'S what's rare.

13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4125329)

You mean 20-30 truly elite guys in baseball history, right?

Hah. Perhaps I'm being generous thinking that each team had one elite guy.

14. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4125339)

I mean, right now it seems like David Robertson is guaranteed to be good, but would you be surprised if three years from now he was worse than Mark Melancon? Probably not.

At any given time, there's hardly any relief pitchers whom we would be shocked to see go from an ERA of 2 to an ERA of 6. I know, because when it happened to Brad Lidge, I was shocked that the Phillies actually had a reliever who I had expected to be excellent.

15. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4125342)

I would say throughout baseball history (at least, since relievers became widely used) I would count Rivera and Wilhelm as having >10 years of excellence. (Maybe Fingers)

16. Squash Posted: May 07, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4125347)

... but we are more than happy to use them for outs 25, 26 & 27 when they have even less margin for error than a closer does."

That's the part that gets me. They'll happily bring in their 3rd or 4th or 5th guy with the score tied and men on with no outs in the 9th inning. Yet that same reliever Doesn't Have What It Takes to pitch with a lead in the 9th in an open frame. The whole closer thing is mind-boggling. I have no problem with the idea that people like set roles in their workplace. I like set roles. But the idea that the closer is some special breed is insane, especially given the way teams shuffle through these guys all year every year.

17. JJ1986 Posted: May 07, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4125348)

At any given time, there's hardly any relief pitchers whom we would be shocked to see go from an ERA of 2 to an ERA of 6.

With Rivera out, this is about 5 guys for me. Papelbon, Axford (Is he the second best closer around?), Adams and Uehara in Texas, and Venters (although I wouldn't be that surprised).

18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4125349)

I would say throughout baseball history (at least, since relievers became widely used) I would count Rivera and Wilhelm as having >10 years of excellence. (Maybe Fingers)

Gossage had '75-'85. I wouldn't hold the year as an SP against him.

It also probably makes sense to look at IP of excellence, rather than seasons. Today's guys pitch a lot less.

19. Nasty Nate Posted: May 07, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4125351)

I would say throughout baseball history (at least, since relievers became widely used) I would count Rivera and Wilhelm as having >10 years of excellence. (Maybe Fingers)

Willy Wags!

20. hokieneer Posted: May 07, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4125399)

I would say throughout baseball history (at least, since relievers became widely used) I would count Rivera and Wilhelm as having >10 years of excellence. (Maybe Fingers)

Hoffman?

21. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 07, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4125410)

I would count Rivera and Wilhelm as having >10 years of excellence.

Depends on your definition of "excellence." I ran some BBRefPI searches based on a minimum of 50 IP and 95% of appearances as a reliever;

ERA+ >130 - 78 pitchers with at least 5 seasons, 15 with 8 or more (Rivera 15, Hofmann/Wilhelm 12, Wagner/Franco 11, Tekulve 10 only ones with at least 10)

ERA+ >140 - 49 with 5 seasons, 8 with 8 or more (Rivera 15, Wagner/Wilhelm 11)

ERA+ >150 - 20 with 5 seasons, 4 with 8 or more (Rivera 14, Wagner/Wilhelm 10)

22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 07, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4125416)

Same as above but with 100 IP instead of 50 (to give some love to the 60s/70s guys who pitched more innings);

ERA+ >120 - 8 with 5 or more seasons (Tekulve/Wilhelm lead with 7 each)
ERA+ >130 - 4 with 5 or more seasons (Wilhelm 7, Tekulve 6, Quiz/Lyle 5)
ERA+ >140 - 2 with 5 or more seasons (Wilhelm 6, Lyle 5)
ERA+ >150 - Only 2 with 5 seasons (Lyle/Wilhelm)

23. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4125419)

But the idea that the closer is some special breed is insane, especially given the way teams shuffle through these guys all year every year.

Especially how teams will be reluctant to give a guy a shot in the closer spot, because he isn't tested. And the only way to get that tested of course, is when you get a shot.

24. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: May 07, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4125539)

Especially how teams will be reluctant to give a guy a shot in the closer spot, because he isn't tested. And the only way to get that tested of course, is when you get a shot.

As a twentysomething college graduate of the liberal arts (lulz), I'd say you can find this mentality applied to more than just closing out baseball games.

25. Walt Davis Posted: May 07, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4125545)

I want teams to know that I am an 11th, 12th and 13th out specialist. Sometimes you can stretch me to the 14th out but don't bring me in for the 10th out because, man, I just can't get motivated in those situations.

26. zonk Posted: May 07, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4125553)

As much as I always thought he was overrated when closing for my team, Lee Smith ought to be in that conversation, I think...

From 1982 to 1991, Smith had an ERA+ better than 130 except for '84 (107) and '89 (116). He had three seasons of 150 or better (plus a 148), I'm not sure if Pi is right in 21 -- I come up with 10 seasons for Lee Smith of ERA+ of 130 or better.

EDIT: Never mind - I see Smith just missed the 50 IP cutoff in two of those seasons (strike shortened '94 and then in '95 when he had 49 1/3)

27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 07, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4125567)

strike shortened '94 and then in '95 when he had 49 1/3

'95 was also strike shortened; 144 games.

28. Every Inge Counts Posted: May 08, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4126118)

Can't stand the ####### Tigers bullpen right now.

29. Zipperholes Posted: May 08, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4126126)

And to expand, with very few exceptions, there are no "good relief pitchers", just relief pitchers who are pitching good right now.

No. There are many "good" relief pitchers. The problem is that over a 60 inning sample, many of them have poor results.

EDIT: I mean, it's a distinction without a difference, really. But if managers start getting smart about using the good ones, maybe there would be a difference.

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Monday, May 07, 2012

Morosi: Closers a worry for major league clubs

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