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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

MORRISSEY: Cubs can’t let sentimentality decide Schwarber’s future – Chicago Sun-Times

O ye, of little faith!

Jim Furtado Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:28 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, kyle schwarber

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   1. Man o' Schwar Posted: December 12, 2017 at 06:39 PM (#5591211)
He struggled in the first half, but put up an .894 OPS in the second half. After missing an entire year due to injury, the early struggles weren't entirely unexpected.

I wouldn't be selling low on him at this point.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2017 at 07:50 PM (#5591231)
I agree with the headline but I don't think there's any real danger of that. From my outsider perspective, it simply looks like all the Cub brass and Maddon still believe he's going to be a top hitter. If they don't move him (or move him for too little) and that turns out to be a mistake, then that's on their talent evaluation skills, not their sentimentality.

Basically, every move they've made with him is consistent with them believing in that bat. The early promotion, the move to the OF, the rushing back for the WS, the sticking with him during the big slump, the nearly immediate recall from AAA, the reliance on him even against LHP in the playoffs. As #1 points out, his 2nd half gives them enough evidence to keep the faith.

I am concerned they might be wrong, or at least partially wrong. Last year, the Cubs said some things about how they think he can be a good all-field hitter, reinforced by sticking him in the lead-off spot. Looks more like a dead-pull TTO hitter to me. I think he's more likely to be a Thome/Dunn type than an Ortiz/Palmeiro type, I think they see it the other way around. ("Type" not realization.) He's meh in LF -- not usually bad enough to hide your eyes but enough to mean that he won't be anything special unless he starts churning out a 140-150 OPS+ with regularity. I'm OK with them trading him, I'm OK with them trading Happ, I'm OK with them holding onto both of them.

But if you want a dark horse candidate to go Judge on the league next year, Kyle's a pretty good one.
   3. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:00 PM (#5591236)
I think he's more likely to be a Thome/Dunn type than an Ortiz/Palmeiro type


I too don’t think he’s on steroids.
   4. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:43 PM (#5591284)
I just decided to look up Schwarber's splits and saw something I wasn't anticipating: Schwarber has one of the most profound home-road splits I've seen in a long while. It's a pretty small sample (fewer than 70s games in each venue), but he put up a .910 OPS at Wrigley and .650 on the road. In Chicago he was basically the young Adam Dunn, and on the road he was the old Adam Dunn.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:53 PM (#5591289)

But if you want a dark horse candidate to go Judge on the league next year, Kyle's a pretty good one.


Of course, the odds are we never see another hitter do that in our lifetime.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: December 12, 2017 at 10:09 PM (#5591302)
Of course, the odds are we never see another hitter do that in our lifetime.

Hmmm. Jose Bautista was even more unexpected, I'd say. Albert Pujols is another case. Maybe it happens once a decade. Of course we don't yet know what we saw. That could have been Aaron Judge's Brady Anderson moment. I think he's a stud going forward, but, you never know...
   7. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2017 at 11:34 PM (#5591395)
Of course, the odds are we never see another hitter do that in our lifetime.

Hey, I'm the official realistic crank throwing water on everybody else's enthusiasm around here!!

But fine, it's OK with me if he's the next Jose Bautista ... even the next Ryan Howard (without extension) would be acceptable. I'm so generous, I'll even settle for prime Greg Luzinski.
   8. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 12, 2017 at 11:41 PM (#5591408)
Prime Greg Luzinski had a 150 OPS+ over four seasons, with Top Ten MVP finishes all four years. Yeah, the Cubs should settle for that.
   9. Jim Furtado Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:03 AM (#5591457)
He got too pull happy last year. When he's works to drive the ball up the middle and shows some patience at the plate, he's a really good hitter.

I watched him a lot last season and was lucky enough to buy low on him in my sim league. Because of his contract status I then signed him to fairly sizable long-term pact.

I believe Schwarber will be a big hitter.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 13, 2017 at 09:26 AM (#5591520)
I believe Schwarber will be a big hitter.


He's only listed at 6'0'', which isn't all that big in baseball terms.

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