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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Moser: Adam Dunn’s Historic Strikeout Rate and the Longest Home Run in Baseball History (Allegedly)

All imperative baked paprika-parmesan chicken talk aside, Michael Kay. Kingman - .302 OBP ~ Dunn - .373 OBP

Dunn is striking out in 37.2 percent of his plate appearances: 121 strikeouts in 325 PAs. In second place is Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates’ can’t-miss prospect-turned-misses-a-lot project, at 32.5 percent. As Bogira notes, Dunn’s on pace to strike out 261 times, which would break the major league record by thirty-eight strikeouts.

But perhaps this is unfair to Dunn. He’s played in all 75 of the White Sox’s games this year, and at 325 plate appearances, has averaged 4.33 per game. He’s had fewer than four in only three games. Of players with more, only Adrian Gonzalez regularly hits below first or second in the order, and he’s been aided by some long extra-inning games. In short, Dunn’s played almost every inning available to him this whole season, and is on track for 702 plate appearances in 162 games.

Dunn’s a hardy player—when you strike out, walk, and hit home runs as often as he does, you don’t have to run as much or as fast—and has finished just shy of 162 games seven times in his career. But he’s never actually played every game, and he’s never broken 700 plate appearances. In seasons that he’s played 152 games or more, i.e. ones without serious injury, he’s averaged 664 plate appearances, which is a fair enough number to work with.

If Dunn gets 664 plate appearances and continues to strike out at the rate he’s doing so now, he’ll finish with a mere 247 Ks, a merciful 11 percent higher than the existing record.

Repoz Posted: June 28, 2012 at 09:48 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, white sox

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   1. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 28, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4169127)
His TTO %age sits at an astonishing .625

He's on pace for 51 HRs, 126 BBs and 258 Ks
   2. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4169173)
Dunn has more home runs than singles, and more walks than hits.
   3. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4169174)
The longest I've ever seen was either Canseco's mammoth playoff home run against the Jays at SkyDome/Rogers Center (5th deck) or the one Adam Dunn hit over the back wall in centerfield in Cincinnati (?), which landed in the river and floated to the next state.
   4. PS is probably making an obscure reference Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4169181)
For those keeping track, through June 28: Dunn 121 SO, Verlander 113 SO.
   5. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4169186)
For those keeping track, through June 28: Dunn 121 SO, Verlander 113 SO.

c'mon Adam--you can do it!!
   6. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: June 29, 2012 at 01:18 AM (#4169215)
[3] I remember that one if you're thinking of the one off of Jose Lima in 2004.
   7. Shock Posted: June 29, 2012 at 01:34 AM (#4169217)
Dunn has more home runs than singles, and more walks than hits.


42% of his hits have been homeruns. Only 2 players have had over 40% of their hits be homeruns in a season with at least 300 AB: Barry Bonds in his 73 homer season, and Mark McGwire who did it 3 times (with 2 more at 39%.)

Bautista is also sitting at 39.4% this year.
   8. bobm Posted: June 29, 2012 at 05:59 AM (#4169235)
For single seasons, From 1901 to 2012, (requiring SO>.3*PA and Qualified for league batting title), sorted by greatest SO/PA, grouped for legibility only

         Player SO/PA  SO  PA Year Age Tm Lg   G
      Adam Dunn 37.2% 121 325 2012 32 CHW AL  75
  Mark Reynolds 35.4% 211 596 2010 26 ARI NL 145
  Mark Reynolds 33.7% 223 662 2009 25 ARI NL 155
 Dave Nicholson 33.7% 175 520 1963 23 CHW AL 126
  Mark Reynolds 33.3% 204 613 2008 24 ARI NL 152
      
      Jack Cust 32.9% 197 598 2008 29 OAK AL 148
       Rob Deer 32.9% 186 566 1987 26 MIL AL 134
       Rob Deer 32.8% 179 546 1986 25 MIL AL 134
  Pedro Alvarez 32.5%  81 249 2012 25 PIT NL  66 
       Rob Deer 32.5% 175 539 1991 30 DET AL 134
      
      Benji Gil 32.4% 147 454 1995 22 TEX AL 130
      Jack Cust 32.3% 164 507 2007 28 OAK AL 124
 Jose Hernandez 32.3% 188 582 2002 32 MIL NL 152
       Rob Deer 31.8% 169 532 1993 32 TOT AL 128
  Mark Reynolds 31.6% 196 620 2011 27 BAL AL 155
   
   Bryan LaHair 31.5%  73 232 2012 29 CHC NL  65
 Jose Hernandez 31.3% 185 592 2001 31 MIL NL 152
 Jose Hernandez 31.0% 177 571 2003 33 TOT NL 150
      Adam Dunn 30.7% 199 648 2010 30 WSN NL 158
    Ryan Howard 30.7% 199 648 2007 27 PHI NL 144
  
     Bo Jackson 30.7% 172 561 1989 26 KCR AL 135
Pete Incaviglia 30.5% 185 606 1986 22 TEX AL 153
      Jack Cust 30.2% 185 612 2009 30 OAK AL 149
    Mike Napoli 30.2%  76 252 2012 30 TEX AL  66
    Drew Stubbs 30.1% 205 681 2011 26 CIN NL 158


EDIT: 3.1 PA/G qualifier just barely excludes Dunn's 2011 season: 496 PA; 35.7% SO/PA; 177 SO
   9. bobm Posted: June 29, 2012 at 06:01 AM (#4169236)
Adam Dunn - Ratio Batting

                                                            
Year   Age  Tm Lg   PA  HR%   SO%   BB%  XBH% X/H% SO/BB IP%
2001    21 CIN NL  286 6.6% 25.9% 13.3% 13.3%  59%  1.95 53%
2002    22 CIN NL  676 3.9% 25.2% 18.9%  8.3%  42%  1.33 51%
2003    23 CIN NL  469 5.8% 26.9% 15.8%  8.5%  49%  1.70 49%
2004    24 CIN NL  681 6.8% 28.6% 15.9% 11.8%  53%  1.81 48%
2005    25 CIN NL  671 6.0% 25.0% 17.0% 11.5%  58%  1.47 50%
2006    26 CIN NL  683 5.9% 28.4% 16.4%  9.4%  49%  1.73 48%
2007    27 CIN NL  632 6.3% 26.1% 16.0% 10.9%  50%  1.63 51%
2008    28 TOT NL  651 6.1% 25.2% 18.7%  9.7%  52%  1.34 49%
2009    29 WSN NL  668 5.7% 26.5% 17.4% 10.0%  46%  1.53 50%
2010    30 WSN NL  648 5.9% 30.7% 11.9% 11.7%  52%  2.58 50%
2011    31 CHW AL  496 2.2% 35.7% 15.1%  5.4%  41%  2.36 46%
2012    32 CHW AL  325 7.4% 37.2% 17.9% 10.5%  60%  2.09 37%
12 Yrs            6886 5.7% 28.0% 16.3% 10.0%  51%  1.72 49%
MLB Averages           2.7% 17.4%  8.5%  7.9%  34%  2.05 70%


IP% = In play % = 1 - TTO%
   10. bobm Posted: June 29, 2012 at 06:17 AM (#4169237)
More Adam Dunn:

Year  Tm   SO   PA Outs  SO/PA SO/Outs   IP%
2001 CIN   74  286  186    26%     40%   53%
2002 CIN  170  676  423    25%     40%   51% 
2003 CIN  126  469  309    27%     41%   49%
2004 CIN  195  681  426    29%     46%   48% 
2005 CIN  168  671  419    25%     40%   50%
2006 CIN  194  683  442    28%     44%   48% 
2007 CIN  165  632  402    26%     41%   51%
2008 TOT  164  651  408    25%     40%   49%
2009 WSN  177  668  411    26%     43%   50%
2010 WSN  199  648  428    31%     46%   50%
2011 CHW  177  496  362    36%     49%   46% 
2012 CHW  121  325  212    37%     57%   37%
  12 Yrs 1930 6886 4428    28%     44%   49%


2011 and 2012 seem anomalous in terms of SO/PA and SO/Outs, but the SO/Outs has been trending up since 2009 and the SO/PA since 2010.
   11. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: June 29, 2012 at 06:53 AM (#4169238)
[3] I remember that one if you're thinking of the one off of Jose Lima in 2004.

Lima-time!

I was there for that homerun. You knew it was gone right off the bat. Steve Finley (I believe) was playing centerfield and kept going back like he had a play on the ball, and then it disappeared over the batter's eye building. Found out later it bounced off the concourse, out of the stadium, bounced off Mehring Way and down the levee to the river, where someone found it resting against a piece of driftwood. So, it didn't actually end up in the river, but, it was sure close.
   12. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: June 29, 2012 at 07:28 AM (#4169241)
Reggie's career 2,597 Ks is once again looking doomed if Dunn can stay healthy.
   13. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:10 AM (#4169278)
Reggie's career 2,597 Ks is once again looking doomed if Dunn can stay healthy.


It's amazing that in this era of high K's and long careers that it hasn't been shattered already. It's the Bob Beamon of baseball records.
   14. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4169291)
quick--without looking--when Reggie became the all-time K leader, who did he pass?
   15. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:29 AM (#4169294)
Wille Stargell?
   16. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4169296)
Better question. When Stargell retired, who was #2?
   17. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:36 AM (#4169301)
correct
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4169304)
Better question. When Stargell retired, who was #2?
I'm gonna guess Mickey Mantle...

Nope. Technically, when Stargell retired, Stargell was #2 - Jackson had already passed him. #3 is a guy I should have guessed before looking it up.
   19. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 29, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4169313)
Technically, when Stargell retired, Stargell was #2 - Jackson had already passed him.


You're right about that. I thought he retired a couple of years before 1982.
   20. JJ1986 Posted: June 29, 2012 at 10:00 AM (#4169320)
#3 is a guy I should have guessed before looking it up.


Kong?
   21. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: June 29, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4169366)
it has to be Sosa?
   22. Der_K Posted: June 29, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4169374)
I was gonna guess Reggie, 'til I saw #18. I too go Kong.
   23. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: June 29, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4169378)
Bonds Sr.
   24. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: June 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4169381)
Kingman still had a few seasons left when Stargell retired so he's not it. But I didn't know the right answer until I looked it up.
   25. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4169454)
Bonds Sr.


Bonds was indeed #3 when Willie retired. But that is not who I was referring to. because like I said earlier, I didn't realize Stargell played till 1982. For some reason, I thought he retired in 1980. So I'll rephrase. After the 1980 season, when Stargell was #1 all time in strikeouts, who was #2?
   26. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4169458)
[13] I feel like it might be similar to Lee Smith's save record. That lasted well into an era of rising saves, but once it fell, multiple guys passed him pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens with Jackson's K record.
   27. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4169483)
[13] I feel like it might be similar to Lee Smith's save record. That lasted well into an era of rising saves, but once it fell, multiple guys passed him pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens with Jackson's K record.


Well, 2 is multiple, but ARod and Dunn are the only active guys within 1,400 of him who have any chance of getting there. You have to go all the way to Ryan Howard at a little over 1200 before you find someone who has a shot, and even he's a longshot.

edit: But then only 2 guys passed Smith as well, so the comparison is valid.

edit 2.0: Billy Wagner sure looked like he would pass Smith as well. What happened to him? 37 saves, 1.43 ERA 13.5 K/9 at age 38 and then gone.
   28. bachslunch Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4169495)
I remember seeing on TV the monster HR Reggie Jackson hit in the 1971 All-Star Game, the one that hit the light tower. One wonders how far that one would have gone if it had missed the tower and been allowed to travel its full length.
   29. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4169496)
Lee Smith is still #3 in saves (478) and I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a single active pitcher who ends up passing him. The only veterans with any shot at all are Francisco Rodriguez and Papelbon. Rivera was a legendary figure and Hoffman benefitted from playing in the exact right time for a closer, which may be already over as teams are starting to admit that they are giving middle-relief innings to someone who is better than their closer.

Active leaders:

608 Rivera
329 Francisco Cordero (age 37)
300 Isringhausen (age 39)
292 K-Rod (age 30)
279 Nathan (age 37)
256 Valverde (age 35)
237 Papelbon (age 31)
225 Lidge (age 35)
204 Fuentes (age 36)
189 Huston Street (age 28)
173 Bobby Jenks (age 31)
171 Brian Wilson (age 30)
165 Putz (age 35)
   30. Sweatpants Posted: June 29, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4169500)
Billy Wagner sure looked like he would pass Smith as well. What happened to him? 37 saves, 1.43 ERA 13.5 K/9 at age 38 and then gone.
Nothing - he just retired. He said all season long in 2010 that it would be his last year, and it was. He specifically invoked Brett Favre's name and said that he wasn't going to be like that.
   31. SandyRiver Posted: June 29, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4169730)
Well, 2 is multiple, but ARod and Dunn are the only active guys within 1,400 of him who have any chance of getting there. You have to go all the way to Ryan Howard at a little over 1200 before you find someone who has a shot, and even he's a longshot.

With the season record getting repeatedly smashed, I was a bit surprised at how few players have even a long shot at Reggie's total. ARod would need to play out his full contract as close to a full timer to get there, IMO, and I don't see that happening. Granderson? Only a year younger than Howard and almost 200 behind, but will probably age a lot better. Mark Reynolds might've been a candidate, but not now unless he has a Dunn-like rebirth very soon. Not many of the 2012 season leaders in Ks are close to the top in OPS, and with one superlongshot candidate they're all 30+, injury-prone, or mediocre hitters - sometimes two or all three. My dark horse is Giancarlo Stanton, who's only 22. However, his top season is "only" 166, and he'll need a bunch of years at 175+ to complete, I'd think.

I remember seeing on TV the monster HR Reggie Jackson hit in the 1971 All-Star Game, the one that hit the light tower. One wonders how far that one would have gone if it had missed the tower and been allowed to travel its full length.

I'll see you Reggie's and raise you Mantle's 1963 shot off the YS facade.

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