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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, May 12, 2014Moura: Contact could help Trout measurablyAbbott: “Contact.” Costello: “CONTACT!”
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This is incorrect. I offer no opinion on the aesthetics or the "health" of the game or optimal scoring levels or what have you.
My key point is this: if you want to "fix" the game or halt the changes to the game or whatever, then you need to understand what is driving the changes.
1. People talk about declining offense. It's true scoring is down. This has little/nothing to do with steroids or power drops or defensive shifts. It is almost entirely about increasing K-rates, some drop in BB rate and maybe some spike in GB rate. Everyone of those is consistent with a larger strike zone, especially one that's expanded on the lower end. A recent study looked at pitchf/x over the last couple of seasons and seemed to find exactly that.
2. Therefore if you want to change that, make changes that will decrease the K-rate while maintaining on-contact production and walk rates.
I don't happen to think 2 is very possible to do other than by shrinking the strike zone. Contact-oriented hitters might reduce the K-rate but will decrease on-contact production and walk rates leaving you with a game that some may find more aesthetically pleasing but will most likely result in less scoring, not more.
On shifts, I simply want to see good analysis. Defensive IF shifts should affect only certain things -- BABIP on GBs (and GBs only) being the most obvious and possibly GB/FB mix and pull/straight/away hitting tendencies. To be effective, they need to decrease the BABIP on GBs of one large group while leaving the other groups unchanged or at least produce a net gain. We are not seeing this.
One possible explanation is that batters adjusted almost immediately to the shifts. It's also possible that the same increased data awareness that led teams to discover the benefits of shifting also led them to discover how much higher production is on pulled balls and so decided that, on offense, shift or no shift, it was still better to pull the ball. There is some evidence that batters are going the other way slightly less often than they did in the pre-shift fad days.
Show me actual evidence that contact-oriented hitting will increase scoring or that shifts have significantly impacted the outcomes on GBs ... and an actual analysis of OF positioning please! ... without creating counter-effects that wipe out that impact and I'll listen.
Until then ... yes, I believe that the best strategy to combat high-K pitchers is to murder the ball when you do make contact. That's a dumb strategy if you're Juan Pierre but so was Pierre's swing at everything strategy (or at least his skill at it wasn't sufficient, it works fine if you're Ichiro or Gwynn or can play SS). I'll admit my aesthetic preference is not to have a league full of Juan Pierres.
Me too!
I specifically listed mark grace. John olerud. Wally Joyner
Instead you keep hammering the one reference to Juan Pierre
You are discussing in bad faith and it's obviously by choice
I don't employ the ignore feature but do not anticipate me exchanging things with you in the future
I weary of such nonsense. It reminds me of the doofi from the bad old peds discussions
Good day
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