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Monday, November 13, 2017

Muchas Gracias, Béisbol (Carlos Beltran announces retirement)

“Thank you.”

This is and always will be my response when someone thanks me for what I’ve done in this game. Because I am so eternally grateful.

I am blessed to have played this game for 20 years.

I am blessed to have played for so many great organizations.

I am blessed to have shared all of my experiences with my wife and my three kids, my family and friends. To have so many loving fans. To have been able to build a school in Puerto Rico and change the lives of so many kids. To have won the Roberto Clemente Award, which is the greatest honor I could have ever received as a ballplayer.

And I am blessed to be a champion.

But now, my time as a player has come to an end.

Today, I am officially announcing my retirement.

Muchas gracias, béisbol.

I can’t wait for what the next chapter holds.

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 13, 2017 at 04:47 PM | 137 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, mets, retirement, royals

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   1. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 13, 2017 at 06:30 PM (#5575450)
During his time with the Mets, I remember thinking that Beltran was a guy who made the game seem easy and he did everything well. A pleasure to watch and he appears to be a decent guy overall.
   2. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 13, 2017 at 06:35 PM (#5575451)
He broke in while we lived in KC, when my kids were 11 and 9. The older one is approaching his 31st birthday. Time, it flies faster and faster every year.

Best wishes to a classy player.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: November 13, 2017 at 06:36 PM (#5575452)
Yeah, super talented and truly an elegant baseball player. His 2006, during which he hit 41 homeruns while playing a GG-quality centerfield, was one of the best seasons I've ever seen.
   4. Zach Posted: November 13, 2017 at 06:48 PM (#5575459)
He was a rookie right as I was starting to take an interest in baseball, and you couldn't ask for a better favorite player.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 13, 2017 at 06:50 PM (#5575461)
Have we discussed his HOF case yet? Did I miss that?
   6. Zach Posted: November 13, 2017 at 06:54 PM (#5575465)
His Hall of Fame case should be interesting. On the one hand, he lacks the kind of eye-popping numbers in individual categories that tend to get people elected. On the other hand, he was sort of the platonic ideal of a ballplayer who's good at everything, and I'd guess he has a deep reservoir of goodwill. I'll certainly keep rooting for him.
   7. BDC Posted: November 13, 2017 at 07:07 PM (#5575480)
Have we discussed his HOF case yet? Did I miss that?

Kinda endlessly, yes, but now that we are at the end of his career, some comps centered on Beltran in terms of OPS+ and PA, ranked by dWAR, which often separates the good cases from the dubious:

Player            dWAR    PA OPSRbaser  HR  RBI  SB   BA  OBP  SLG       Pos
Adrian Beltre     27.8 11649  117    3.7 462 1642 120 .287 .340 .482   
*5D/H64
Ernie Banks        4.9 10394  122   
-6.9 512 1636  50 .274 .330 .500    36/H57
Roberto Alomar     2.4 10400  116   53.8 210 1134 474 .300 .371 .443    
*4/HD6
Carlos Beltran     0.9 11031  119   54.3 435 1587 312 .279 .350 .486  
*89D/H73
Andre Dawson       0.9 10769  119   14.1 438 1591 314 .279 .323 .482    98DH
/7
Darrell Evans     
-0.5 10737  119   -6.5 414 1354  98 .248 .361 .431  *53DH/76
Luis Gonzalez     
-1.4 10531  119  -18.1 354 1439 128 .283 .367 .479 *7H/D9835
Tony Perez        
-6.9 10861  122  -12.0 379 1652  49 .279 .341 .463   *35H/D4
Harold Baines    
-20.3 11092  121  -10.0 384 1628  34 .289 .356 .465   *D9H/87 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/13/2017.

Interesting because Gonzalez and Baines and Perez are not in the HOM, and Tony Perez, the HOFer, is pretty clearly not as good as Beltran. The guys above are clear HOF/HOMers. Evans is HOM, not HOF. And Dawson, a HOM/HOFer, is a very close comp, but someone who was an MVP and was arguably (in the early '80s) the best player in baseball, briefly.

Beltran is clearly a Hall of Merit player without the shred of a doubt. Which also means that in a HOF of the current size, he's well-qualified. I wonder if he will get much BBWAA support, though. Even in that great 2006 season, he was 4th in MVP voting. The Keltner test might not suggest that he was ever thought of as one of the very top players in the game. But his salaries might. He was a big star in big venues.
   8. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 13, 2017 at 07:08 PM (#5575481)
There's not much not to like. 400+ HR power. One of the most successful base stealers in terms of % success ever (for guys with 300+ steals). Outstanding postseason record. 9 All-Star teams, 3 Gold Gloves.

He'd get my vote.
   9. The Duke Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:14 PM (#5575534)
I don’t see him having a big issue getting in - won’t be on first ballot but within 3-5 ballots. He’s also a good person who has done a lot for others and that always gets you over the finish line if close. Curt schilling is one who is being hurt the other way on that score
   10. Rally Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:24 PM (#5575551)
He'll get my (imaginary) vote. Unfortunately being good all-around and not having one singular dimension to your game has not been the best path to Cooperstown. Hopefully his overall value was great enough to make the voters notice and he gets a bonus for character and going out as a champion.
   11. Hysterical & Useless Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:26 PM (#5575558)
Wonderful player. Are there fans of any team he played for that don't wish he could've spent his whole career with them?
   12. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:37 PM (#5575575)
I'm agnostic as to his actual prospects, but Beltran is clear Hall of Famer for me, and the aesthetic parts of his game take a borderline-plus case well over the line. There was a time when he was a genuinely excellent fielder. He was also a guy who could hit a baseball a thousand miles if you made a mistake. He was one of the best baserunners of his generation. He was both efficient and beautiful.
   13. TomH Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:50 PM (#5575587)
You can play all day with Beltran SB numbers.

Name all of the players in MLB history with >155 SB and a SB success of 85%
A: Beltran.
And, he has more than TWICE the cutoff of career steals (312) in that sentence.

Name all of the players with both more SB than Beltran and a higher SB%.
A: none.

   14. Adam Starblind Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:52 PM (#5575589)
Mike Francesa was once on a rant about how Beltran wasn't a "clutch player." To support the case, he looked to see how few RBIs the guy had. And then discovered he had 100+ in four straight seasons. And Francesa was convinced. Stupid story.
   15. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:54 PM (#5575593)
You can play all day with Beltran SB numbers.

He has 11 steals in the postseason with 0 caught stealing. I have no idea how to check that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's also a record.
   16. TomH Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:57 PM (#5575596)
Brock 14-2, Henderson 33-6, Lofton 34-6; not sure who else to look for.
   17. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 13, 2017 at 08:58 PM (#5575598)
Also, has anyone ever had a better postseason than Beltran had in 2004?

12 games, 20 hits, 21 runs scored, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 6 steals/0 CS, 9 walks, 8 Ks. .435/.536/1.022. 1.558 OPS.

He reached base 29 times and scored 21 runs. That's unbelievable.
   18. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 13, 2017 at 09:01 PM (#5575601)
Brock 14-2, Henderson 33-6, Lofton 34-6; not sure who else to look for.

Davey Lopes, 19-3. Campaneris 10-2. Vince Coleman 13-3.

Tim Raines 3-3. Huh.
   19. eric Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:22 PM (#5575652)
Chase Utley: 11-2.
   20. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:24 PM (#5575655)
He has 11 steals in the postseason with 0 caught stealing. I have no idea how to check that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's also a record.

B-R has postseason leaders in all categories; the top 10 in steals goes down to 13, and all of those players had at least 1 CS (with the possible exception of Eddie Collins, for whom CS numbers are unavailable). Several of them did have amazing stolen base percentages - Omar Vizquel 23/3, Roberto Alomar 20/2, Ron Gant 13/1. Not sure about players with 12.
   21. Lars6788 Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:33 PM (#5575659)
Have we discussed his HOF case yet? Did I miss that?


I found this.
   22. oscar madisox Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:34 PM (#5575660)
Does he go in as a Royal or a Met? Personally, I'd love to see him go in as an Astro—it's the team he had his great postseason with and the team he won a ring with—but that ain't gonna happen.

   23. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:43 PM (#5575663)
This BB-Ref box score from the 1910 World Series says that Eddie Collins was caught stealing, although the site doesn't compile those CS totals.
   24. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 13, 2017 at 11:36 PM (#5575682)
I don’t see him having a big issue getting in - won’t be on first ballot but within 3-5 ballots.

That might depend on whether the ballot-glut thins, and other seemingly-worthy candidates rapidly move off the ballot. A guy like Beltran might struggle a bit if he's competing with 15+ candidates arguably worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown. I think he makes it eventually, although it might take more than 5 years, but I'm somewhat wary of predicting that many years ahead.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2017 at 11:43 PM (#5575688)
Beltran will get in.

some big counting stats, CF and 3 Gold Gloves, tremendous postseasons, and class act.

he deserves it and he will get it.
   26. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 14, 2017 at 12:07 AM (#5575705)
Also, has anyone ever had a better postseason than Beltran had in 2004?

12 games, 20 hits, 21 runs scored, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 6 steals/0 CS, 9 walks, 8 Ks. .435/.536/1.022. 1.558 OPS.


The only one I can think of that is comparable is Barry Bonds, 2002:

17G 16H 18R 8HR 16RBI 27BB 6K .356/.581/.978 1.559OPS
   27. Sunday silence Posted: November 14, 2017 at 06:14 AM (#5575740)
Can anyone explain his weird platoon splits? Hes a switch hitter but he's functioning as a RHB in 2016 to the tune of 60 pts of ba and 100 of slug. But 2015 and 2017 it's opposite! For his career I think he's dead even.

Does anyone know what is going on there?
   28. bunyon Posted: November 14, 2017 at 07:17 AM (#5575744)
The ESPN crawl this morning says he is interested in the Yankees managing job and that they will interview him.

Did anyone see that coming?
   29. Baldrick Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:18 AM (#5575785)
Beltran was an endlessly fun player to watch. Especially when he was younger, and good at everything. But he was also a really enjoyable presence in his twilight years. I'm happy he finally got that ring. Sometimes, when a player sticks around and finally wins a title in their elder years when they don't have much left, it feels a little bit hollow. But definitely not with Beltran. He absolutely felt like an integral part of this Astros team, even if the value on the field was nonexistent.
   30. DL from MN Posted: November 14, 2017 at 10:11 AM (#5575825)
Beltran has been on MMP ballots in 5 different seasons with a runner-up finish in 2006. We have yet to vote on 2011 where he should make his 6th. That is the line where more often than not the player is a HoM player.
   31. Baldrick Posted: November 14, 2017 at 10:46 AM (#5575857)
Looking at Beltran's career baserunning numbers, and he's actually not as high as I would have expected. Not that he's bad or anything. His +54 is 26th all time, but it's behind contemporaries like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, not to mention guys like Ichiro, Rollins, Juan Pierre who stole a lot more bases.
   32. shoewizard Posted: November 14, 2017 at 10:55 AM (#5575866)
Of course I think he deserves election to the HOF. But keep in mind that half the voters will still be heavily influenced by the triple crown stats.

There are 3 outfielders in the HOF that had lower than .280 BA, fewer than 450 HR, and fewer than 1600 RBI, Dawson, Ralph Kiner, and Rickey.

As mentioned above, he comps very close to Dawson. Beltran is a way to imagine what Dawson's career might have looked like with more Walks.

It will be interesting to see how the HOF voters go here, but I think it's going to be a struggle for a while.

Rk             Player  HR   BA  RBI    G    PA    AB    R    H  2B 3B   BB   SO   SB  CS  OBP  SLG  OPS
1        Andre Dawson 438 .279 1591 2627 10769  9927 1373 2774 503 98  589 1509  314 109 .323 .482 .806
2         Ralph Kiner 369 .279 1015 1472  6256  5205  971 1451 216 39 1011  749   22   2 .398 .548 .946
3    Rickey Henderson 297 .279 1115 3081 13346 10961 2295 3055 510 66 2190 1694 1406 335 .401 .419 .820 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/14/2017.
   33. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 14, 2017 at 10:57 AM (#5575869)
And Dawson, a HOM/HOFer, is a very close comp, but someone who was an MVP and was arguably (in the early '80s) the best player in baseball, briefly.


Dawson and Beltran are incredibly similar. Considering the fact that the '87 MVP voting was a joke (for both leagues - Boggs and Trammel at 8.2 and 8.3 WAR lose out to George Bell with 5 and Dawson at 4! somehow beats Gwynn with 8.5 WAR) and that Beltran's best year coincided with the equally egregious Ryan Howard MVP (although Pujols could very easily have won in 2006 over Beltran) and the Andre Dawson MVP thing is not really a thing. Dawson does have a 4-year consecutive peak WAR advantage over Beltran (29-25) but Beltran actually has a better 7-year peak (44-42).

Not sure how someone could vote for Dawson but not Beltran.
   34. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 14, 2017 at 11:17 AM (#5575883)
His +54 is 26th all time, but it's behind contemporaries like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, not to mention guys like Ichiro, Rollins, Juan Pierre who stole a lot more bases.


At least for Arod and Jeter, wouldn't the fact that they had, like 800 more baserunning opportunities (Jeter 12th all-time in times on-base, Arod 17th, Beltran 58th) explain that? Both those guys were pretty good on the bases too, and had a lot more opportunities.
   35. Booey Posted: November 14, 2017 at 11:53 AM (#5575912)
Happy trails, Carlos.

Beltran was always a joy to watch, and I look forward to his HOF induction. I think he's widely thought of as a future HOFer, and since the ballot should be cleared a bit by then, I suspect he'll make it fairly easily (probably 3 ballots or so, similar to Sandberg, Larkin, Biggio, Piazza, etc).

Seeing Beltran now at 40, pudgy and bald, I'd almost forgotten how good looking he was as a young player until I saw the pics in this article. Getting old sucks. It won't be long before there's no more position players older than me (I assume there will still be a few pitchers that Colon their way to 45 or so).
   36. shoewizard Posted: November 14, 2017 at 12:05 PM (#5575921)
Looking at Beltran's career baserunning numbers, and he's actually not as high as I would have expected. Not that he's bad or anything. His +54 is 26th all time, but it's behind contemporaries like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, not to mention guys like Ichiro, Rollins, Juan Pierre who stole a lot more bases.


All of that positive came through age 31. Knees got him after that.

7th all time through age 31



Rk             Player Rbaser From   To   Age   PA    R    H   BB HBP GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1    Rickey Henderson  108.5 1979 1990 20
-31 7198 1290 1762 1093  37  97 936 211 .293 .403 .441 .844
2       Willie Wilson   92.8 1976 1987 20
-31 5906  872 1627  281  49  49 529 100 .295 .334 .389 .723
3          Tim Raines   91.4 1979 1991 19
-31 6868 1036 1761  858  30  88 685 121 .298 .387 .428 .815
4       Vince Coleman   69.8 1985 1993 23
-31 4884  712 1175  401  12  34 648 151 .266 .328 .343 .670
5       Luis Aparicio   63.8 1956 1965 22
-31 6399  806 1502  418  16 104 392  94 .258 .307 .341 .648
6             Ty Cobb   59.5 1905 1918 18
-31 7742 1322 2522  699      65 741 113 .371 .434 .516 .950
7      Carlos Beltran   56.6 1998 2008 21
-31 6520 1035 1605  683  32 100 275  37 .281 .357 .496 .853
8        Johnny Damon   54.8 1995 2005 21
-31 6908 1073 1789  598  32  62 281  75 .290 .353 .431 .784
9          Joe Morgan   54.5 1963 1975 19
-31 6578  983 1501 1063  27  55 445 112 .278 .396 .430 .826
10       Cesar Cedeno   53.4 1970 1982 19
-31 6932  942 1801  575  49 147 503 160 .289 .351 .451 .802
11    Bert Campaneris   52.4 1964 1973 22
-31 6089  770 1457  344  45  58 454 118 .260 .306 .354 .660
12       Barry Larkin   50.7 1986 1995 22
-31 4991  711 1322  449  33  83 239  41 .298 .364 .438 .802
13      Jimmy Rollins   50.6 2000 2010 21
-31 6906  993 1714  510  33  86 343  70 .272 .328 .435 .764
14         Jose Reyes   50.5 2003 2014 20
-31 6630  973 1772  468   9  65 455 111 .291 .341 .435 .776 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/14/2017.
   37. Zach Posted: November 14, 2017 at 12:36 PM (#5575945)
The ESPN crawl this morning says he is interested in the Yankees managing job and that they will interview him.

Did anyone see that coming?


I know he always wanted to be a Yankee, and IIRC Torre claimed in his book that they passed on him because he was too even-keeled. It would be poetic if they hired him as a manager for the same reason.
   38. shoewizard Posted: November 14, 2017 at 12:40 PM (#5575947)
Manager of the Yankees ? The fallout from that within 5 years might just put the kibosh on his HOF chances
   39. ajnrules Posted: November 14, 2017 at 12:44 PM (#5575950)
Does he go in as a Royal or a Met? Personally, I'd love to see him go in as an Astro—it's the team he had his great postseason with and the team he won a ring with—but that ain't gonna happen.

I'd love to see him get in as a Royal, but I think he gets in as a Met. He played seven seasons with both teams and put up more value with the Mets. His best individual seasons were as a Met as well.
   40. Hank G. Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:20 PM (#5575980)
I'd love to see him get in as a Royal, but I think he gets in as a Met. He played seven seasons with both teams and put up more value with the Mets. His best individual seasons were as a Met as well.


They don’t have to put a logo on his cap, do they? Does he really have a strong identity with any one team? For someone who played for eight different teams (assuming I counted correctly), I think the blank cap would be the way to go.
   41. SoSH U at work Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:20 PM (#5575981)
I'd love to see him get in as a Royal, but I think he gets in as a Met. He played seven seasons with both teams and put up more value with the Mets. His best individual seasons were as a Met as well.


I'd agree, but I suspect it's close enough the Hall would let him choose between the two clubs, if he had a preference.
   42. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:30 PM (#5575988)
The ESPN crawl this morning says he is interested in the Yankees managing job and that they will interview him.

Did anyone see that coming?


I'd never thought about Beltran as the Yankees' manager until I saw a similar story in this morning's Times, but he'd be a terrific choice. Impeccable credentials, and respected and well liked everywhere he's been.
   43. dlf Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5575989)
I'm with Hank G in #40. Beltran is the kind of player who should go in with no team on his cap. I think of him as the young Royal (perhaps mostly because I keep reading Poz writing about those years) and his first brief stay in Houston (the way he dominated the post season) but he didn't stay any one place long enough to have become part of the fabric of that team.
   44. Hank G. Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:39 PM (#5575999)
At least for Arod and Jeter, wouldn't the fact that they had, like 800 more baserunning opportunities (Jeter 12th all-time in times on-base, Arod 17th, Beltran 58th) explain that? Both those guys were pretty good on the bases too, and had a lot more opportunities.


Point taken, but I don’t see how the fact that he got on base less than Arod and Jeter is exactly a positive. I would focus on the great SB percentage.

Jeter was only slightly above break-even for his career, and ARod only had 17 more stolen bases. It’s likely that Beltran provided more value with his stolen bases than either Arod or Jeter.

Let’s see, excess stolen bases and caught stealing over Beltran:

Jeter 46-48
Arod 17-27

I take it back. It’s obvious that Beltran’s stolen bases had more value than either Arod’s or Jeter’s.

Edit: I see now that the +54 was baserunning in total, and not just stolen bases, which negates part of my point. I think the stolen bases part is still true. Stealing more bases as a lower percentage is not necessarily more valuable than fewer stolens bases with a lot fewer caught stealing.
   45. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5576011)
They don’t have to put a logo on his cap, do they?

They could do it like the late '60s/early '70s Topps cards with an extreme close-up of the player's face, looking up, and just the underside of his cap. That was always a great look.
   46. Hank G. Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:45 PM (#5576015)
Also, has anyone ever had a better postseason than Beltran had in 2004?

12 games, 20 hits, 21 runs scored, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 6 steals/0 CS, 9 walks, 8 Ks. .435/.536/1.022. 1.558 OPS.


It was only four games, but it’s hard to top Babe Ruth’s 1928 batting line: .625/.647/1.375 2.022 OPS.
   47. QLE Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5576018)
That might depend on whether the ballot-glut thins, and other seemingly-worthy candidates rapidly move off the ballot. A guy like Beltran might struggle a bit if he's competing with 15+ candidates arguably worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown. I think he makes it eventually, although it might take more than 5 years, but I'm somewhat wary of predicting that many years ahead.


In terms of said glut:

There are fourteen players currently on the backlog. Of these, seven (Bonds, Clemens, Martinez, McGriff, Schilling, Sosa, and Walker) will be off the ballot by 2023 (which would be Beltran's first ballot), two more (Kent and Mussina) will be in their last year, and two others (Guerrero and Hoffman) are almost certainly going to have been inducted by that point.

The results of the current ballot may be key in terms of what sort of continuing glut there is- it depends, in one direction, on how quickly Thome is inducted (given that Chipper Jones seems a safe first-ballot inductee), and, in the other direction, on whether Damon, Andruw Jones, Rolen, Santana, and the field fall off quickly or hit the 5% mark.

In 2019, the chief newcomers are Rivera (who, given recent practices by BBWAA voters, is almost certainly a first-balloter), Halladay (good question), Helton (Larry Walker redux, I suspect), Pettitte (steroids will be an issue, he's not really deserving, and recent ballots suggest that the BBWAA voters overrate the Yankees of the 1990s less than we'd think), and Oswalt (who feels like a one-and-done). I'm not sure any of them are likely to be continuing ballot issues in either direction.

For 2020, it's Jeter (who also seems a lock for first-ballot induction), Abreu (who is as deserving as Guerrero, but damned if the writers see it that way), and Giambi (who doesn't seem likely to last on the ballot). Again, no seeming continuing ballot issues- and it also seems likely that this election will help the remaining backlog.

In 2021, none of the notable first-timers to the ballot (Hudson, Buehrle, and Hunter) seem likely to last a second ballot- and the backlog should benefit as a result.

This leaves 2022. Other than Rodriguez (where it seems to be the last battle of the Steroids War), Ortiz (who we expect to get in first-ballot, though many of us are uncertain as to why), and Teixeira (who probably will join the parade of first basemen to be one-and-done), I'm not certain who among the likely eligible players could expect many votes (unless the Jimmy Rollins cult is larger than we expect).

For all of these reasons, at the moment I'm not convinced there should be the glut as an issue by 2023- even without assuming much in terms of backlog inductions, it doesn't seem like the coming years will add many players who will be lingering on the ballot.

Should more of these players manage to stick on the ballot, on the other hand....
   48. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5576021)

Thanks for a great career, Carlos.

I haven't seen this noted in any of the threads on the topic, but Beltran's collision with Mike Cameron in 2005 was probably the scariest thing I've seen on a baseball field. I was worried I had just seen the end of two of my favorite players. Amazingly, both guys came back and basically had career years the following season.
   49. Hank G. Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5576022)
They could do it like the late '60s/early '70s Topps cards with an extreme close-up of the player's face, looking up, and just the underside of his cap. That was always a great look.


Have they ever done that with a HOF plaque? They could dispense with the cap altogether. We know the guy was a baseball player.
   50. shoewizard Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:50 PM (#5576030)
Wow, since I was looking at Baserunning leaders through age 31 in comment 36 above, just did a quick search of leaders from age 32 onwards.

Holy Crap, Davey Lopes practically laps the field, and in no where near the most PA's on this list either

EDIT: Although on a rate basis, Dave Roberts, appropriately enough, is right there with Lopes

Rk             Player Rbaser   PA    H   BB HBP GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
1         Davey Lopes   50.6 4846 1109  551  16  89 318  58 .264 .349 .404  .752
2       Ichiro Suzuki   39.7 6989 1950  412  28  67 319  61 .301 .344 .383  .727
3           Max Carey   39.3 4219 1080  429      26 257  34 .295 .373 .410  .783
4         Ozzie Smith   38.8 5341 1291  544  12  78 277  68 .277 .352 .348  .700
5          Otis Nixon   36.3 4517 1119  463   5  61 428 122 .281 .355 .325  .680
6    Rickey Henderson   36.0 6148 1293 1097  61  75 470 124 .261 .399 .391  .790
7         Willie Mays   35.7 5830 1437  739  20 114  98  29 .286 .377 .521  .899
8        Paul Molitor   35.4 6331 1762  590  27 126 187  44 .313 .377 .460  .837
9           Lou Brock   35.1 5218 1415  398  13  71 500 166 .297 .351 .385  .736
10      Pee Wee Reese   32.3 4516 1051  538  14 116 107  45 .273 .362 .383  .745
11       Barry Larkin   29.5 4066 1018  490  22  95 140  36 .290 .378 .453  .831
12       Kenny Lofton   28.8 4798 1212  487  22  61 214  59 .288 .362 .418  .780
13       Craig Biggio   28.5 6555 1590  526 166  93 146  42 .275 .351 .440  .791
14      Willie Wilson   27.7 2411  580  144  13  41 139  34 .262 .308 .343  .651
15      Luis Aparicio   27.6 4831 1175  318  11  80 114  42 .267 .316 .344  .660
16         Joe Morgan   25.7 4751 1016  802  13  50 244  50 .262 .386 .423  .809
17         Tim Raines   23.4 3491  844  472  12  54 123  25 .285 .382 .419  .801
18        Rajai Davis   21.8 2085  496  125  19  41 171  38 .258 .308 .391  .699
19       Johnny Damon   21.7 4009  980  405  18  31 127  28 .275 .351 .435  .786
20       Dave Roberts   21.7 1991  467  204  10  22 146  29 .270 .347 .385  .732
21    Jackie Robinson   20.5 3138  800  443  43  68  97  30 .307 .415 .471  .886
22        Chase Utley   19.4 3352  755  284  74  37  55   8 .255 .332 .412  .745
23       Willie Davis   19.4 3082  819  124  16  39 100  23 .283 .312 .422  .734
24       Brett Butler   18.2 5164 1311  624  22  29 282 132 .298 .386 .371  .757
25        Ron LeFlore   17.9 1313  313  112   2  17 161  44 .263 .326 .353  .679
26      Jimmy Rollins   16.8 3334  741  303   5  50 127  35 .247 .315 .383  .699
27        Juan Pierre   16.4 2214  554  124  35  23 155  48 .278 .331 .329  .659
28     Roberto Alomar   16.4 2817  717  274  15  61  97  18 .291 .362 .435  .797
29        Bill Bruton   15.6 3789  934  310  13  50 103  44 .274 .335 .399  .734
30        Stan Javier   15.3 2467  610  262  11  43  91  21 .284 .362 .384  .746
31        Sam Jethroe   15.2 1974  460  177  25  23  98  14 .261 .337 .418  .755
32        Maury Wills   14.7 4778 1206  309   9  56 297 129 .276 .324 .324  .648
33        Robin Yount   14.6 3783  925  355  27  71  86  27 .277 .347 .421  .768
34         Larry Bowa   14.5 4030  961  250   6  54 114  38 .260 .306 .324  .631
35       Larry Walker   14.4 3286  895  438  70  67  51  24 .325 .427 .586 1.013
36   Roberto Clemente   13.8 3180  971  241   9  88  19   7 .334 .384 .521  .905
37        Tony Womack   13.7 2053  509  111  11  29  96  28 .269 .311 .341  .652
38       Honus Wagner   13.3 6678 1844  583      60 354  26 .314 .382 .445  .826
39        Derek Jeter   12.9 5606 1529  446  67 150 143  40 .304 .367 .413  .780
40       Mike Cameron   12.5 3213  704  338  31  47  81  24 .250 .335 .450  .784
41      Mookie Wilson   12.4 1806  448   79  10  31  68  16 .264 .299 .364  .663
42        Kirk Gibson   11.9 2352  511  265  21  29  87  23 .250 .339 .430  .769
43     Jim Eisenreich   11.8 2843  774  218   6  54  54  12 .300 .353 .406  .758
44       Steve Finley   11.2 6011 1418  526  33  84 113  46 .264 .330 .463  .793
45         Coco Crisp   11.0 2265  491  231   0  28  91  19 .245 .321 .395  .716
46     Gary Sheffield   10.8 4787 1181  617  59 116  93  27 .290 .388 .513  .901
47       Brian Jordan   10.4 3140  783  214  35  67  33  17 .274 .329 .439  .768
48      Lance Johnson   10.3 1917  534  138   1  28  95  33 .303 .353 .415  .767
49          Al Bumbry   10.2 3321  837  279   8  49 136  53 .280 .342 .365  .707
50          Amos Otis   10.2 2543  614  209  10  56  76  20 .270 .330 .400  .730
51       Dave Philley   10.1 3874  942  331  10 130  39  24 .271 .335 .386  .721 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/14/2017.
   51. Baldrick Posted: November 14, 2017 at 01:55 PM (#5576033)
I'm with Hank G in #40. Beltran is the kind of player who should go in with no team on his cap. I think of him as the young Royal (perhaps mostly because I keep reading Poz writing about those years) and his first brief stay in Houston (the way he dominated the post season) but he didn't stay any one place long enough to have become part of the fabric of that team.

Hmm, I disagree. He's certainly not definitively associated with one team, such that it's obvious which is the 'correct' choice. But I think either a Mets or Royals cap would be absolutely appropriate. I associate him very strongly with both of those teams. It would feel weird to see him without anything on the cap.
   52. shoewizard Posted: November 14, 2017 at 02:20 PM (#5576066)
Most PA's, HR, WAR, highest OPS/OPS+ all as a Met.

Would be easier if it were over 50% of his playing time instead of just 33%. But I think he should go in as a Met based on that.

I wonder what HIS preference is.
   53. SoSH U at work Posted: November 14, 2017 at 02:23 PM (#5576069)
Have they ever done that with a HOF plaque?


Catfish has no logo on his cap on his HoF plaque.
   54. Captain Supporter Posted: November 14, 2017 at 02:30 PM (#5576079)
Hmm, I disagree. He's certainly not definitively associated with one team, such that it's obvious which is the 'correct' choice. But I think either a Mets or Royals cap would be absolutely appropriate. I associate him very strongly with both of those teams. It would feel weird to see him without anything on the cap.


To me, he is a Hall of Famer. And I hope he is not inducted wearing a Met cap, as I live in NYC and spent most of the time he was a Met listening to numerous Met fans booing him and disparaging both his ability to hit in the clutch and his unwillingness to play through what they decided were minor injuries.
   55. ajnrules Posted: November 14, 2017 at 02:31 PM (#5576080)
Catfish has no logo on his cap on his HoF plaque.

Greg Maddux as well, much to the consternation of fans in Atlanta
   56. Rally Posted: November 14, 2017 at 03:11 PM (#5576119)
Holy Crap, Davey Lopes practically laps the field


His 1985 season was something else. He was 40 years old, no longer a regular but a utility player. He played 99 games with 325 PA, and stole 47 bases in 51 attempts.

Since his retirement he's been a great first base coach around a short stint as a manager, and it seems like every team he coaches winds up with some incredible SB% numbers.
   57. yo la tengo Posted: November 14, 2017 at 03:56 PM (#5576190)
I am a Mets fan for as long as I can remember. I spent most of my life in the south and watched the Braves regularly for years. I moved north in 2007 and immediately fell into the habit of having the Mets on everyday. I have such fond memories of Beltran manning centerfield from 2007 until he left. He was a joy to watch and he certainly feels like the kind of player who belongs in the Hall but in an era of eye popping offensive stats he might have a harder time
   58. Zach Posted: November 14, 2017 at 04:33 PM (#5576220)
I always thought of him as a Royal. He was just a Royal who was playing for other teams.

It may seem odd, but for a long time that's just what happened to Royals stars. They played in KC for a little while, then went out to seek their fortunes elsewhere.
   59. dlf Posted: November 14, 2017 at 04:39 PM (#5576228)
Catfish has no logo on his cap on his HoF plaque.

Greg Maddux as well, much to the consternation of fans in Atlanta


Yogi Berra, Tony LaRussa, and a bunch of NeL stars also have no logos.
   60. Zach Posted: November 14, 2017 at 05:23 PM (#5576256)
Having played for many teams is usually seen as an anchor on a player's chances, but Beltran has the interesting attribute of being pretty good for every team he played for:
Team / OPS+ by year

KC -- 100, 99, 69, 123, 114, 132
HOU -- 135
NYM -- 97, 150, 125, 130, 144, 109, 151
SFG -- 159
STL -- 128, 127
NYY -- 98, 119, 133
TEX -- 102
HOU -- 84

So basically everybody that saw Beltran play regularly got at least one pretty good year from him. The exception was this year's Houston team, where he was a respected elder statesman. Plus, Houston has his amazing 2004 postseason to look back on.

   61. Booey Posted: November 14, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5576270)
Yogi Berra, Tony LaRussa, and a bunch of NeL stars also have no logos.


Berra couldn't decide between the Yankees and Mets?
   62. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2017 at 06:27 PM (#5576294)
Not sure how someone could vote for Dawson but not Beltran.

Ahh, that way lies madness. I'm not sure how someone could vote for Beltran but not Edmonds ... OK, I can see how but how could 75% vote Beltran while less than 5% vote Edmonds. I certainly can't see how someone can vote Beltran but not Walker ... I can't see how anybody can vote Edgar but not Walker. And Mike Crudale.

Viewed against the entirety of the BBWAA voting history, you'd think there's a good chance Beltran would have a tough time (Dawson's wait, the early dismissals, Santo, Rolen, Murphy, etc.) But of course that's not how the BBWAA will be judging him, he'll get judged against his own ballot contemporaries. And #47 is exactly right, there are very weak ballots on the horizon, partly due to the 10-year limit.

It's going to be interesting to see what the BBWAA does. The number of votes is going to plummet. Even so, if they impose anything close to the current standard for making even 5%, we may see ballots with no more than 3-4 names on them ... or very long stretches when nobody is elected. Certainly if Buehrle and Hudson hit the ballot now, they don't get 5%. Here is a reasonably likely 2023 ballot (year on ballot, current %age)

Manny (7th, 24)
Kent (10th, 17)
Sheffield (9th, 13)
Wagner (8th, 10)
Rolen (6th, NA)
Halladay (5th, NA)
Andruw (6th)
Helton (5th)
Pettitte (5th)

I'm far from convinced that Rolen, Andruw, Helton will even make 5% to begin with. I find it hard to see Manny and Sheff rising given roids and bad attitudes. Halladay is probably off already. Kent and Wagner probably make it given these ballots -- who else will there be to vote for other than the obvious 1st ballot guys?

Look at that list ... I don't know who comes on in 2022 besides Ortiz (who probably won't be around for 2023) but based on the 2021 list, there is nobody with less than 5 years in that backlog. Other than first balloters, it's not clear to me that anybody who debuts from 2020-22 will get 5%. If Buehrle, Hudson, Abreu can't get it (and I don't think they will), who can? It may take a while before the HoF cares -- they have a nice string of highly popular easy choices over the next 4-5 years, it may take a non-election with no legit backlog candidates ca 2024 to wake them up to the issue.

On that 2013 ballot, if you can't get excited about Beltran, you can't get excited about anybody. OK, there's a good chance this will be Ichiro's ballot as well so Beltran might have to wait a year.

I'll leave it to a real HoF historian but I think we might be headed to the weakest HoF ballots since, what, 1975-6? Ever? At least 1996-8. The 96 ballot is the sort of thing we're going to be seeing, only I think it will be worse. Nobody was elected in 1996 but the ballot still had 5 eventually elected HoFers plus Santo. Those elected HoFers were Niekro, Sutton, Perez, Rice and Sutter. Perez, Rice and Sutter are some of the worst selections of all-time (Niekro and Sutton probably deserved it) and they probably only made it because they established decent vote counts on weak ballots then rose on other weak ballots.

2001 might be the Beltran example. The strongest carry-over from 2000 was Rice at 50% and the horribly under-appreciated Carter just behind him. In waltzed Winfield with his 3000 hits and 400 HRs as an easy first-ballot choice (esp under those circumstance) ... and Kirby Puckett who should have been a very borderline, long-serving back-logger who might get over the line but when the choice is "vote Winfield and nobody" or "vote Winfield and at least one of this sorry bunch", Puckett probably is the 3rd best player on that ballot (the under-appreciated Carter). Add a bit of narrative and voila.

So faced with "vote Ichiro only" and "vote Ichiro and ... hmmm.... Beltran or Kent ...", that should be a pretty easy choice.
   63. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 14, 2017 at 06:44 PM (#5576300)
Greg Maddux as well, much to the consternation of fans in Atlanta


I really had no idea about this. That really surprises me that he didn't opt for a Braves cap. Did he give an explanation why?
   64. dlf Posted: November 14, 2017 at 07:10 PM (#5576308)
#63 -

"My wife Kathy and I grew up in baseball in Chicago, and then we had just an amazing experience in Atlanta with the Braves. It's impossible for me to choose one of those teams for my Hall of Fame plaque, as the fans of both clubs in each of those cities were so wonderful. I can't think of having my Hall of Fame induction without support of both of those fan bases, so, for that reason, the cap on my Hall of Fame plaque will not feature a logo."

Link
   65. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 14, 2017 at 07:32 PM (#5576318)
Without knowing anything about it, I assume Yogi's HoF cap is blank because he was the Mets' manager at the time of his induction.
   66. cardsfanboy Posted: November 14, 2017 at 07:46 PM (#5576330)
I'd love to see him get in as a Royal, but I think he gets in as a Met. He played seven seasons with both teams and put up more value with the Mets. His best individual seasons were as a Met as well.


I don't see how he goes in as anything other than a Royal, as Greg Maddux pointed out, the team that drafts you and develops you, has a large claim to your success beyond just the years you played for them in the majors. I've been a Beltran fan for years, and I've never identified him as a Met, more as a team he played for, he's always been a Royal in my head, even when he was a Met/Astros/Cardinal(and I barely noticed his Yankee years)
   67. cardsfanboy Posted: November 14, 2017 at 07:53 PM (#5576334)
Holy Crap, Davey Lopes practically laps the field, and in no where near the most PA's on this list either


Davey Lopes was a legend baserunner when he played. (Probably my favorite non-Cardinal as of 1982 of my life....tied with Joe Rudi---but I owned a Davey Lopes glove---)

Imagine if he could have made it to the majors before his age 27 season.
   68. cardsfanboy Posted: November 14, 2017 at 07:59 PM (#5576338)
I really had no idea about this. That really surprises me that he didn't opt for a Braves cap. Did he give an explanation why?


He played more years for the Cubs organization, everyone seems to forget about the fact that these guys play in the minors for the same organization, that they were drafted by these organizations, their first organization is the one that told these guys "we believe in you." and then helped them become major leaguers.
   69. dlf Posted: November 14, 2017 at 08:10 PM (#5576344)
he's always been a Royal in my head, even when he was a Met/Astros/Cardinal(and I barely noticed his Yankee years)


The Rangers were sufficiently recent that I could remember his time there, but for the recent news about him, I would never been able to tell you that he also played for the Giants.

...

As a Braves fan who can clearly remember watching the 2004 playoffs against Houston, I can assure you that bb-ref has his post-season stats wrong. There is no way that the good guys got him out half the time.
   70. John DiFool2 Posted: November 14, 2017 at 08:39 PM (#5576358)
People here really think Rolen will be one and done? Combo of crowded ballot, the jack of all trades master of none effect (see Santo), the 3B have to hit like a 1B to get in effect, and no major milestones?
   71. dlf Posted: November 14, 2017 at 08:51 PM (#5576363)
People here really think Rolen will be one and done? Combo of crowded ballot, the jack of all trades master of none effect (see Santo), the 3B have to hit like a 1B to get in effect, and no major milestones?


Wouldn't surprise me in the least. He is an accumulator candidate without great accumulation in any traditional stats. His peak, as seen by the voters, had but a single season in the top 10 in MVP and only four years garnering *any* votes. Even looking at the peak via the advanced stats only shows one year in the top five of bWAR and two others right at #10 in the league.

And as a saber-friendly fan, I am not overly thrilled with a case that relies on nearly 1/3 of the player's total value coming from the defensiveWAR side of the ball - Rolen has 52.1 career oWAR and 20.6 dWAR. I could be convinced that is real, but I worry that we are still close to the infancy of defensive metrics and Rolen's career spans the transition between the various adjusted range factor numbers and the more precise (in my opinion) play-by-play leading to more uncertainty. Said differently, he is a smidge better as a hitter than his contemporary Aramis Ramirez; is his defense at the same position so much better that Rolen is clearly over the line when Ramirez will likely get zero votes?
   72. eric Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:13 PM (#5576367)
While I suspect Rolen won't get into the HOF nearly as easily as he will be a HOMer, I think he'll at least get 5% to stay on the ballot. I see him as a 10-20% debut. He's the Larry Walker of 3B in terms of in-season durability, career length, defensive prowess, offense relative to position, and counting numbers.
   73. Sunday silence Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:14 PM (#5576368)
Hey if we can't measure it it probably doesn't exist.
   74. cardsfanboy Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:16 PM (#5576370)
Said differently, he is a smidge better as a hitter than his contemporary Aramis Ramirez; is his defense at the same position so much better that Rolen is clearly over the line when Ramirez will likely get zero votes?


Yes.

Edit: to clarify though, it's not a smidge better hitter, 122 vs 115 ops+, 234 vs 170 rbat, is not a smidge. (add in the -31 rbase vs 13, and -23 rdp vs -4, and they aren't in the same class offensive or defensively)

When Rolen played he was viewed as someone who was the heir apparent defensively to Brooks Robinson, and hit better than that. (through 8400 pa, Rolen had 175 rfield, Brooks 204) Everything being said about Arenado or Machado today, were things being said about Rolen when he played)

put it this way, imagine if Manny Machado goes another decade playing at his current level defensively, and improves his hitting...... that is Scott Rolen.
   75. cardsfanboy Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:33 PM (#5576376)
He's the Larry Walker of 3B in terms of in-season durability, career length, defensive prowess, offense relative to position, and counting numbers.


He's significantly better than Larry Walker in durability to start his career. (Remember, when looking at bb-ref to click 'hide partial seasons') He hit over 150 games played 5 of his first 7 full seasons, and 140 in 7 of his first ten.
   76. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:35 PM (#5576379)
In game one of the 2013 World Series he banged into the wall and had to leave early. As a Red Sox fan I was happy but I felt genuinely bad for him. He always struck me as a good guy and he deserved that opportunity to show his stuff in a World Series.
   77. SoSH U at work Posted: November 14, 2017 at 09:44 PM (#5576383)

People here really think Rolen will be one and done?


I don't, and I have a bet with Booey on that very subject.
   78. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 14, 2017 at 10:36 PM (#5576399)
When Rolen played he was viewed as someone who was the heir apparent defensively to Brooks Robinson,


Maybe you viewed him that way, but I'm not sure other people did. He might not even be the best fielder of his generation -- that probably goes to Beltre.
   79. Howie Menckel Posted: November 14, 2017 at 10:57 PM (#5576404)
I can't imagine Rolen being viewed, at this point, as even a half-likely HOF guy.

one and done vs not might be the opening line. he's better than that, of course, but look how many as good suffered the same fate.

"He's significantly better than Larry Walker in durability to start his career. (Remember, when looking at bb-ref to click 'hide partial seasons') He hit over 150 games played 5 of his first 7 full seasons, and 140 in 7 of his first ten."

Walker only played in 103 of the Expos' 114 games in 1994, and in only 131 of the Rockies' 144 in 1995.

some stellar cherry picking there, unless you tie Walker directly to the labor unrest.
   80. SoSH U at work Posted: November 14, 2017 at 11:00 PM (#5576405)
Maybe you viewed him that way, but I'm not sure other people did. He might not even be the best fielder of his generation -- that probably goes to Beltre.


When the two were together in the National League, Rolen won six Gold Gloves to none for Beltre (overall Rolen has eight to Beltre's five - Rolen's total is third-most behind Robinson and Schmidt).

I don't know if he was ever the heir apparent to Brooks, but it's not just CFB who would see him as the best defensive third baseman of his era.
   81. SoSH U at work Posted: November 14, 2017 at 11:07 PM (#5576408)
but look how many as good suffered the same fate.


Three, maybe four with Lofton (the seventh-best player on the 2013 ballot, before the voters started using all their slots). There really aren't a whole lot of players as good as Rolen who have gone one and done.

I don't think he gets significant support, but I don't see him getting less than 5 percent.
   82. greenback wears sandals on his head Posted: November 14, 2017 at 11:33 PM (#5576416)
Holy Crap, Davey Lopes practically laps the field, and in no where near the most PA's on this list either

Lopes said at one point he wasn't going to dive for groundballs. Apparently that was a good idea.
   83. Rob_Wood Posted: November 14, 2017 at 11:51 PM (#5576424)
It would be a shame if Rolen doesn't reach 5% and falls off the ballot.

By the way, when do ballots hit the mail? They still mail them, don't they?

Do we need a 2018 HOF discussion thread with a separate mock ballot thread to follow??
   84. QLE Posted: November 15, 2017 at 01:29 AM (#5576440)
People here really think Rolen will be one and done?


In my case, it's less a matter of "think in a guaranteed sense" and more "the BBWAA isn't always predictable in terms of who or what they support"- there are several players on the upcoming ballot who are in that category for me, and it will probably take a certain segment of the vote coming in before we have an idea where their support lies.

To a substantial degree, I suspect that the question with Rolen (and, for that matter, Andruw Jones) is dependent on the large number of folk who have three or four ballot slots opened after the last ballot- I wonder who quite a few of those folk will have as their tenth (or ninth) pick, especially among those who already were supporting the likes of Guerrero, Hoffman, Martinez, Bonds, Clemens, and Mussina.
   85. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 15, 2017 at 09:02 AM (#5576463)
Rolen was really, really good at 3B based on the Edmundo eye test. I don't think his dWAR is off by that much, if it is at all.
I don't know if I would rather have Schmidt or Rolen at 3B on a Phillies all time defensive team.
   86. Ithaca2323 Posted: November 15, 2017 at 10:48 AM (#5576535)
People here really think Rolen will be one and done? Combo of crowded ballot, the jack of all trades master of none effect (see Santo), the 3B have to hit like a 1B to get in effect, and no major milestones?


I do. (And Sosh, I'll take a bet from you on it, if you're feeling lucky)

There are six guys who appeared on at least half the ballots last year returning, plus Schilling at 45%. Jones and Thome are easily stronger candidates among 1st year guys. (Jones is obvious, and Thome has Rolen's WAR and a bunch of great traditional stats)

The thing that will probably determine his fate is how voters view Vizquel and A. Jones. If Vizquel gets a lot of support in the vein of "He was basically Ozzie Smith", and Jones pulls in peak voters (5 seasons of 6+ WAR), Rolen's going to have a really hard time sneaking on a ballot.
   87. Hysterical & Useless Posted: November 15, 2017 at 11:45 AM (#5576583)
Captain Supporter, I obviously don't know the Met "fans" you refer to in your post, but they sound like over-privileged but ignorant ######## rather than even casual baseball fans. In 2005, anybody who was paying attention at all to the Mets knew that he was playing on achy knees all year. And after the incident Dave mentioned:

Beltran's collision with Mike Cameron in 2005 was probably the scariest thing I've seen on a baseball field.
(which totally freaked me out too!)

Cameron was done for the year; Carlos missed 4 games. And then the next 3 years he was as good as anybody the Mets have ever had. (low bar, I know.)

I'm indifferent re: hall cap, I just hate hearing about Met fans dissing Carlos. If they're that ignorant, they're not really fans, just blowhards.
   88. SoSH U at work Posted: November 15, 2017 at 12:24 PM (#5576608)
There are six guys who appeared on at least half the ballots last year returning, plus Schilling at 45%.


More important, there were three guys who got elected from last year's ballot, plus the removal of another guy with almost 35 percent support. Rolen is the third-best newcomer (by value) and possibly fourth-best by BBWAA standards (behind Omar). He's also among the Top 10 by value among the candidates.

Yes, it's a defense-heavy case, but not an entirely defense-based on like Andruw (where some of the skepticism about the extent of his greatness is understandable). Moreover, his defensive value is entirely consistent with his reputation (third among third sackers in GGs).

I'm not taking on another bet, but I'm very comfortable with the one I have.
   89. Srul Itza Posted: November 15, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5576612)
It was only four games, but it’s hard to top Babe Ruth’s 1928 batting line: .625/.647/1.375 2.022 OPS.



Lou Gehrig, same post season:

.545/.706/1.727/2.433


   90. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2017 at 02:46 PM (#5576697)
It's hard to know exactly how the voters will treat Rolen, but any reasonable objective measure would have him no higher than 7th and no lower than 13th on any list of all time 3rd basemen who played majority of their time at 3rd.


When I look at this table I can't find any way to rank him lower than 12 & 13, and in my book he is about 8th to 10th at worst.

But as we all know, 3rd base is the position where the candidacy of guys that are not "slam dunk" 1st ballot guys go to die. Half the electorate still have the triple crown stats as their starting point, and so he just doesn't "feel" like a HOF'er to that crew.

One and Done ? I guess it's possible. The scenarios where that could happen have been laid out. Although I'll be truly shocked if that happens.

It's pretty strange really. The guy made 8 all star teams and won 9 GG, , and he is still in the top 12 of 3rd basemen in HR & RBI with that Glove, so you would think that kind of "popular" support would have helped his perception, even without glancing at advanced metrics.


   91. cardsfanboy Posted: November 15, 2017 at 03:04 PM (#5576712)

Maybe you viewed him that way, but I'm not sure other people did. He might not even be the best fielder of his generation -- that probably goes to Beltre.


That was the way he was portrayed before coming to St Louis, basically he was thought of as a guy who hit nearly as good as Schmidt but played better defense. The Press for him, was he was the best defensive third baseman since Brooks, better than Schmidt.


"He's significantly better than Larry Walker in durability to start his career. (Remember, when looking at bb-ref to click 'hide partial seasons') He hit over 150 games played 5 of his first 7 full seasons, and 140 in 7 of his first ten."

Walker only played in 103 of the Expos' 114 games in 1994, and in only 131 of the Rockies' 144 in 1995.

some stellar cherry picking there, unless you tie Walker directly to the labor unrest.


Wasn't trying to cherry pick, was pointing out that Rolen wasn't a guy that was injury prone as a youngster. If we give Walker 1994 and 1995, that means in his first 7 years, he reached 150 games played twice(1994 and 1995) While Rolen did it 5 of his first 7 seasons. (and that also gives Walker 3 out of his first 10 seasons where he reached 140 games compared to 7 for Rolen...again, not really comparable in the durability department for the first decade of their career. (although 103 out of 114 would mean he would have had to play the remaining 48 games of the season and only miss two to have reached a 150 game cutoff, and the 131 out of 144 is already below 150 game threshold if he played every game remaining for the season)
   92. The Good Face Posted: November 15, 2017 at 03:33 PM (#5576740)
It's pretty strange really. The guy made 8 all star teams and won 9 GG, , and he is still in the top 12 of 3rd basemen in HR & RBI with that Glove, so you would think that kind of "popular" support would have helped his perception, even without glancing at advanced metrics.


Rolen's peak is pretty meh though. He had that one great season in 2004, but otherwise it's kind of underwhelming. Just 3 other seasons over 5 WAR and a lot of 3 or 4 WAR campaigns. Plus he missed a lot of games in the second half of his career, never playing in more than 142 in any season following his age 28 year. His value is what it is, but I think the limited playing time helped create a perception that he was little better than "just a guy" for the last 8 years of his career, rather than a HOFer. Kind of the Tim Raines thing all over again.
   93. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2017 at 04:04 PM (#5576776)
Rolen's peak is pretty meh though.


Compared to who, and for how long ? 14th in WAR 7 among 3rd basemen, FWIW


He had that one great season in 2004, but otherwise it's kind of underwhelming. Just 3 other seasons over 5 WAR and a lot of 3 or 4 WAR campaigns. Plus he missed a lot of games in the second half of his career, never playing in more than 142 in any season following his age 28 year.


This is a kind of weird data point. He had 2 seasons after age 28 where he played exactly 142 games, and he put up seasons of 9 and 6 WAR respectively in those seasons.

His value is what it is, but I think the limited playing time helped create a perception that he was little better than "just a guy" for the last 8 years of his career, rather than a HOFer. Kind of the Tim Raines thing all over again.


For ages 29 to Any, 75% or more time at 3rd base, (True 3rd basemen, not guys that got shifted to 1b or dh), he ranks 6th in WAA, behind only Schmidt, Beltre, Boggs, Arod * Brooks

Rk            Player WAA/pos
1       Mike Schmidt    43.0
2      Adrian Beltre    37.5
3         Wade Boggs    31.7
4     Alex Rodriguez    26.3
5    Brooks Robinson    24.5
6        Scott Rolen    20.8
7      Eddie Mathews    19.3
8      Graig Nettles    19.1
9          Ken Boyer    18.6
10         Stan Hack    16.7 



full report link

I mean, if I am interpreting your comment correctly, which I may not be, after age 28 he didn't play enough to create enough value to be perceived as a HOF'er ?

I don't see that as a valid argument.

I think it just still boils down to the same old problem for 3rd base, which is he doesn't have eye popping power stats of a first baseman, and he doesn't have 3000 hits.

Voters have failed to understand 3rd base, and may continue to do so.



   94. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: November 15, 2017 at 04:05 PM (#5576781)
There's skepticism about Rolen's defense, but there's even more skepticism about Jones'. Jones might end up getting ignored by voters because his defense was even better than Rolen's. I suspect that if defensive metrics had said that he was a better fielder than Willie Mays, instead of a much better fielder, his HOF case might actually have been stronger.

By TZ Runs as OF Jones is 1st, Mays is 5th. Jones' lead over Mays is about the same as Mays' lead over #17 Sammy Sosa. (Admittedly Mays loses a year since TZ only goes back to 1953.) By TZ as CF he has a big lead over Mays, but Jones, Mays, and Blair are in a pack by themselves, and his lead over Mays is only as big as Mays' lead over #4 Jim Piersall. By dWAR it's catchers and MI above Jones. He's the highest rated OF at #20. Paul Blair is the next highest OF at #60. His lead over Blair is the same as Blair's lead over #141 Mike Scioscia.

I suspect that voters are going to be suspicious of this and overreact.
   95. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2017 at 04:09 PM (#5576786)
Rolen won 8 GG. Why would voters who are skeptical of defensive stats be skeptical of his defense ?

His defense should be embraced by any traditionalist, and analytics inclined individual, and ANYONE who actually saw him play.

   96. The Good Face Posted: November 15, 2017 at 05:11 PM (#5576822)
Compared to who, and for how long ? 14th in WAR 7 among 3rd basemen, FWIW


One monstrous season (9 WAR), one 6 WAR season, and a couple of 5 WAR seasons. Then a bunch of 3 or 4 WAR seasons. That's better than, say, Jim Rice, but a lot of Rolen's value was wrapped up in defense, which isn't readily apparent (or convincing) to many voters.

I mean, if I am interpreting your comment correctly, which I may not be, after age 28 he didn't play enough to create enough value to be perceived as a HOF'er ?


I'm saying that after his huge 2004 season, he didn't play enough/well enough to create the perception that he was a HOFer. He was still a good player, and he even managed one more 5+ WAR season, but he didn't do much that screamed HOFer. His career post 30 was a bit of a dud compared to what he did in his 20s, which isn't unusual for most players, but as we saw with Tim Raines, it colors the perceptions of voters. People stop thinking of you as a big star and start thinking of you as just another MLB regular (or worse).

I'm not making an argument about his worthiness, only about why so many people don't perceive him as a strong candidate.
   97. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2017 at 06:55 PM (#5576887)
One monstrous season (9 WAR), one 6 WAR season, and a couple of 5 WAR seasons. Then a bunch of 3 or 4 WAR seasons. That's better than, say, Jim Rice, but a lot of Rolen's value was wrapped up in defense, which isn't readily apparent (or convincing) to many voters.


We are back to square one. Comparing 3rd basemen to corner outfielders, or first basemen.

Also, already mentioned the 8 Gold Gloves numerous times. It should mean something to the traditionalists who poo poo advanced metrics.



I'm saying that after his huge 2004 season, he didn't play enough/well enough to create the perception that he was a HOFer.


actually you also wrote:


Plus he missed a lot of games in the second half of his career, never playing in more than 142 in any season following his age 28 year.


So thats why I used age 29 or older as the cutoff for table above. And he comes in with the 7th most production among 3rd basemen there too.

But if now I'm not allowed to include his age 29 season in evaluating his value, then the goal posts have moved again and I can't keep up ;)


Again.....if you want to compare him to corner outfielders or first basemen, you can easily punch holes in his case. If you compare him to 3rd basemen, you can't.

It's really just that simple.

   98. Walt Davis Posted: November 15, 2017 at 08:57 PM (#5576929)
Huh, didn't mean to sidetrack us into a Rolen discussion, not that it's a bad thing.

I do expect him to clear 5% but I do think there's a reasonable chance he won't. I know it doesn't make sense but it didn't make sense that Edmonds, Lofton, Whitaker, Grich and some others didn't make it and it doesn't make sense that Walker is stuck at 20%, so it could happen.

This is partly what I meant with my snide comment that "who could vote for Dawson and not Beltran" is a path to madness. There's not much that separates Beltran from the guys I mentioned except (in most cases) number of PAs. And in general, those extra PAs tend not to have a lot of value other than to push a candidate past benchmarks but Beltran didn't make it past either the H or HR benchmark (but has attractive H, HR, RBI, R totals that have generally been enough).

CB 279/350/486, 119 OPS+, 70 WAR, 1 dWAR, >11,000 PA (Beltran)
SR 281/364/490, 122 OPS+, 70 WAR, 21 dWAR, >8,500 PA (Rolen)
LW 313/400/565, 141 OPS+, 73 WAR, 1.5 dWAR, >8,000 PA (Walker)
LW 276/363/426, 117 OPS+, 75 WAR, 15 dWAR, >9,900 PA (Whitaker)
BG 266/371/424, 125 OPS+, 71 WAR, 16 dWAR, >8,200 PA (Grich)
AT 285/352/415, 110 OPS+, 70 WAR, 22 dWAR, >9,300 PA (Trammell)
AD 279/323/482, 119 OPS+, 65 WAR, 1 dWAR, >10,700 PA (Dawson)
AB 287/340/482, 117 OPS+, 94 WAR, 28 dWAR, >11,600 PA (Beltre)

Beltre of course blows out the WAR totals but about 23 wins are Rfield ... with 5 dWAR he'd look a lot like Beltran, Walker and Dawson. Note also that Rolen's "questionable" defensive numbers mainly are, from a dWAR perspective, interpretable as "Alan Trammell playing 3B his entire career." (Similar for Beltre) ... and Walker is "Beltran playing RF his entire career." Phrased that way, neither strikes me as unrealistic at all.

Anyway, there's not a lot there to justify why some have or will make the HoF while Walker and Trammel got stuck around 20% (and Rolen will probably join them) while Whitaker and Grich couldn't get 5% (and can't get on VC ballots). I'm not saying there's no difference nor trying to start that debate, just that there's not enough difference to justify <5% vs. 80% (or whatever Dawson eventually got). Mainly there's just career length. Walker easily wins the BA and OPS+ battles but had the shortest career. Rolen is pretty much Beltre with a shorter career. Beltran really is Dawson almost down to a tee with an edge to Beltran due to OBP and actually being a better baserunner than Dawson (no easy feat) but will probably have a much easier time (at least partially due to ballots).

None of those guys has a huge amount of narrative either. Beltran's postseason gives him some but he never won an MVP. Walker did but it's not doing him any good. Beltre has become a lovable figure but wouldn't need narrative to make it anyway. (I don't think I've ever heard anybody point out that Beltre has never won a ring -- his rare postseason teams have only made it out of the first round once.)

Before I get criticized for something I point out in others' posts, it's of course unfair to compare Beltran's rate stats over 11,000 PA to Walker's or Rolen's over 2,500-3000 fewer PAs. But given the equal career WAR totals, we know that (by WAR), Walker and Rolen will look at least as good and almost certainly better over those 8,000-8,500 PAs. But his offensive rate stats do pull ahead of Rolen and equal to Grich over Beltran's best 8,000-8,500ish PA period (ages 24-37, 126 OPS+) but overall it comes to 62 WAR. That's also pretty much Dawson (22-35, 125 OPS+, 62 WAR) and Whitaker (24-38, 122 OPS+, 65 WAR). Kinda Beltre too -- 25-38, 124 OPS+, 80 WAR (with about 19 from Rfield, 60 oWAR). ("Best 8000-8500" based on a quick eyeballing of OPS+.)

By the way, in my earlier list I forgot about Vizquel (B-R HoF ballots sort by JAWS or WAR by default and I forgot to keep looking below 55 WAR or so). He will pass 5% and I expected to have a Concepcion-like career on the ballot. And given those weak ballots, I have to raise his chances of making it ... at the very least, I bet his highest vote %age is better than whatever Walker ends up with. Vizquel could introduce a smidgen of "crowding" to the 2023 and further ballots ... stlll not enough to matter.

#94 ... I agree no HoF voter will agree but there is reason to believe Jones was better than Mays defensively (at least in their youth). CF was in transition from "just another OF" to "best defensive OF" for at least the early part of Mays' career. Even if his TZ gap to Jones should be smaller, Mays was very likely being measured against a worse defensive average CF.
   99. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 15, 2017 at 09:40 PM (#5576954)
CF was in transition from "just another OF" to "best defensive OF" for at least the early part of Mays' career


It was? I didn't know that.
   100. SoSH U at work Posted: November 15, 2017 at 10:39 PM (#5576983)
I agree no HoF voter will agree but there is reason to believe Jones was better than Mays defensively (at least in their youth).


I have no problem believing he was better than Mays. I could also believe he was much better than Mays. What I find hard to believe is he was much better than every centerfielder who ever played.
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