Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Murphy: These Phillies not worth watching

Unless you’re on some really heavy duty shiit.

vb

The Phillies must also operate on faith alone when it comes to their lineup, which was no match for young Mets righthander Matt Harvey’s mid-to-high-90s fastball. They managed four hits, one of them for extra bases, and struck out 10 times in 30 at-bats. The biggest piece, naturally, is Ryan Howard, who went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a sacrifice fly and is now 4-for-27 with 10 strikeouts and no extra-base hits. But they also need more out of the man who prompted them to trade away a piece of their starting rotation: Ben Revere went 0-for-3 with a walk and has now reached base in only nine of his 31 plate appearances. Carlos Ruiz will be back in 3 weeks, and Delmon Young might be back sooner. Otherwise, what you see is what you will get.

The Phillies say that it is early, that Howard’s slump is just the way baseball works, and that Halladay’s stuff looks better, and that the front of the bullpen is filled with slow starters. And, really, they do not have a choice but to believe that all of that is true. But if the Phillies really are a good baseball team, they have not yet come close to showing it.

“It’s early, but I’m concerned about our pitching,” Manuel said. “I still think we are going to score some runs. The guy tonight threw a good game. Their guy, he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy. He threw a heck of a game. But at the same time, we’re going to score some runs . . . Right now, we’ve got to work through the problem we have with our pitching, and things will work for us.”

Until then, you might want to find something else to watch.

Repoz Posted: April 09, 2013 at 04:31 AM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 09, 2013 at 07:07 AM (#4408205)
It's pretty rough. Revere looks like a perfect LaRussian 9 hole hitter. Howard looked good in ST vs. just getting started going ML pitchers and MiL pitchers but against a steady stream of ML pitchers he's been abominable. Halladay looks cooked. Durbin is 7 for 7 in inherited runners; the rest of the bullpen is 5 for 6. As in letting them score. Raul Valdes' pumpkin coach is nowhere to be seen. Laynce Nix hasn't had a good at bat that I've seen in the last two years. But other than that, the team has been mediocre. (Oh, I exaggerate a bit on the mediocre).
   2. depletion Posted: April 09, 2013 at 07:23 AM (#4408207)
The Phillies say that it is early, that Howard’s slump is just the way baseball works, and that Halladay’s stuff looks better,

I can believe that Ryan will be hitting well before long, but how can he say Halladay's stuff looks better when his ERA has emerged from the middle ages and is now in the renaissance (1473?). When you enter a game with a 12.xx and it gets worse...
   3. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 09, 2013 at 07:31 AM (#4408210)
Halladay’s stuff looks better TO THE HITTERS. FTFY.
   4. Rants Mulliniks Posted: April 09, 2013 at 09:11 AM (#4408246)
Before the season started I considered picking Matt Harvey for the Cy. He's been pretty impressive so far.

Halladay's numbers cause me pain.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 09, 2013 at 09:20 AM (#4408249)
It's pretty rough. Revere looks like a perfect LaRussian 9 hole hitter


I still can't believe the Twins got Vance Worley AND Trevor May for him. That's going to be a terrible deal for Philly in the long run.
   6. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: April 09, 2013 at 09:28 AM (#4408257)
Utley and Rollins are playing well...

Brown had a few disciplined ABs...

Cliff Lee got a win before July...

Adams looks healthy and filthy...

That's all I got.
   7. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 09, 2013 at 09:45 AM (#4408268)
AG#1F, I think that the Vanimal is a #4 starter at best, so Revere for him is a reasonable trade. May may not amount to anything, but he is a hard throwing lottery ticket and kudos to the Twins for getting that little bit extra.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 09, 2013 at 09:53 AM (#4408275)
Revere's a ~85-90 wRC+ guy. It shouldn't be shocking if he has a bad 30 PAs. He'll be very valuable b/c of his D, but he's not going to be the engine of your offense.
   9. zack Posted: April 09, 2013 at 09:58 AM (#4408281)
Getting whupped by Matt Harvey is nothing to be embarassed about, Harvey is awesome. What is embarassing is your "ace" giving up 7 runs to the Mets.

But hey, at least they kept Harvey off-base.

   10. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 09, 2013 at 11:15 AM (#4408374)
Really strange numbers for Halladay through 7.1 innings as his hits, home runs, walks, strikeouts, HBP, and wild pitches are way the hell up. It's only 7 innings so I think there's almost no point in looking too closely at the numbers, but peripherals for pitchers _do_ tend to stabilize fairly quickly. How many innings before there's a RED FLAG? 25? 30? It's not that many.

If he were coming off another vintage Halladay season there wouldn't be much of a story here, but his 2012 was subpar. It's worth noting that his 2012 was ok relative to the league, but relative to what he had done before, there was a strong downturn.

This is one of the most interesting stories of the year. The one thing I will say about a horrid performance in a small sample: while the sample is small, it can be indicative of an injury. It's too early to tell, but it bears close watching.

Plus, you don't get manhandled by the Mets.
   11. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: April 09, 2013 at 11:33 AM (#4408391)
You have to go beyond treating Halladay as an abstract pitcher who has only 7.1 IP in a small sample. Look at his stuff during the Spring Training and the way his ball moves. Velocity is down a touch, but no command and no hard sink on the ball.

Rosenthal quoted scouts who pointed these problems out last season. If you only looked at his numbers, you would have had no idea what was coming the past two years. If you watched him throw and knew what you were talking about, 2012/13 is no surprise.
   12. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: April 09, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4408409)
If he were coming off another vintage Halladay season there wouldn't be much of a story here


After watching his last game, he looks like a guy on the verge of another vintage Halladay season. The only problem is that vintage is 2000.
   13. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 09, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4408467)
If he were coming off another vintage Halladay season there wouldn't be much of a story here


Rosenthal quoted scouts who pointed these problems out last season. If you only looked at his numbers, you would have had no idea what was coming the past two years. If you watched him throw and knew what you were talking about, 2012/13 is no surprise.


Both of these are true. Halladay was in slow-leak mode the first half of 2012. The second half, the tire blew out, and he hasn't found a patch. His stuff is simply not impressive any more. He's pitching backwards, nibbling and hoping and trying to slop it by. If he doesn't find a fix soon, he's done. (And the 2013 K numbers are meaningless, as he racked up most of them against a Braves lineup that is going to K 7000 times or so this year (in the process of getting his brains bashed in and losing the game handily to the same team that was K'ing that night.))
   14. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: April 09, 2013 at 12:36 PM (#4408472)
All baseball is worth watching. Sometimes it's poorly played, but it's still baseball.
   15. mathesond Posted: April 09, 2013 at 01:11 PM (#4408510)
All baseball is worth watching


Well, except for the WBC :)
   16. philphan Posted: April 09, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4408574)
Ugly game last night. The Mets broadcasters pointed out that just two seasons ago, Halladay pitched a game against the Mets in which he threw 19 straight strikes to start the game. That was someone who was fearless. Last night, he threw first-pitch balls to the majority of hitters. It could be that his command is just off, but I think he knows that if he throws strikes, they will get hit... hard.

Last night, he never topped 91 mph, and many of the balls that were hit hard were around 88-89. Two years before, when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Mets on April 7, it looks like he sat at 90-91 and fairly often got to 92-93. Not that much of a difference, but perhaps enough?

Also worth noting that Revere had no play at home on a ball that the Mets broadcasters thought was going to be a close play. But they concluded from that play that he apparently has a very weak arm. Which is absolutely correct.
   17. zonk Posted: April 09, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4408595)

Both of these are true. Halladay was in slow-leak mode the first half of 2012. The second half, the tire blew out, and he hasn't found a patch. His stuff is simply not impressive any more. He's pitching backwards, nibbling and hoping and trying to slop it by. If he doesn't find a fix soon, he's done. (And the 2013 K numbers are meaningless, as he racked up most of them against a Braves lineup that is going to K 7000 times or so this year (in the process of getting his brains bashed in and losing the game handily to the same team that was K'ing that night.))


That's really an odd thing to me -- maybe it was just the whole 'Doc' mystique, but at least I always thought of Hallady as a "pitcher's pitcher".... good stuff, yes -- but also a smart pitcher that could compensate around not having his best stuff.

If he IS cooked-- then he wasn't what I thought he was...
   18. SG Posted: April 09, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4408601)
Last night, he never topped 91 mph, and many of the balls that were hit hard were around 88-89. Two years before, when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Mets on April 7, it looks like he sat at 90-91 and fairly often got to 92-93. Not that much of a difference, but perhaps enough?


I wonder if he is expending more effort to reach his velocity now which may be affecting his command? So maybe he's only down 1 or 2 mph but if he doesn't have the same precision then he's suffering for it?
   19. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 09, 2013 at 02:48 PM (#4408606)
zonk, this has been far worse than not having his "best stuff". This has been not having "#5 starter stuff".

Now maybe there's hardheaded macho crap going on in his head and he can't bring himself to do slower, not to throw as hard as he possibly can. It's hard to tell, but I still think it's injury of some sort.
   20. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: April 09, 2013 at 03:37 PM (#4408665)
Ben Revere went 0-for-3 with a walk and has now reached base in only nine of his 31 plate appearances.

Stop the presses - a guy with a career .318 OBP has a .281 OBP through 32 PAs (9/32 per bbref). What's the confidence interval* on that? 95%? The idea that he was going to be a good leadoff hitter was absurd on its face the day they made the trade.

*If this question doesn't make sense it's because I don't know what a 'confidence interval' actually is.
   21. Good cripple hitter Posted: April 09, 2013 at 03:47 PM (#4408673)
I wonder if he is expending more effort to reach his velocity now which may be affecting his command? So maybe he's only down 1 or 2 mph but if he doesn't have the same precision then he's suffering for it?


The ESPN commentators were speculating that Halladay was overthrowing and it was hurting both his command and the movement on his sinker/cutter. They also compared his previous mechanics from the no hitter and with his present mechanics, and he looked like he was getting nothing out of his lower body.
   22. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: April 09, 2013 at 03:52 PM (#4408679)
The ESPN commentators were speculating that Halladay was overthrowing and it was hurting both his command and the movement on his sinker/cutter.

I didn't WTFG (no time for that with my Masters less than a month from being finished), but I'm relieved they didn't trot out the old "tipping his pitches" line.
   23. SG Posted: April 09, 2013 at 04:13 PM (#4408693)
Stop the presses - a guy with a career .318 OBP has a .281 OBP through 32 PAs (9/32 per bbref). What's the confidence interval* on that? 95%?


If Span's .318 OBP is his current true talent, after 32 PA you'd expect him to have an OBP between .230 - .406 two-thirds of the time, and between .142 and .494 95% of the time.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: April 09, 2013 at 04:44 PM (#4408733)
Confidence interval (without getting very stats-y)

Y'know when reading political poll results they'll say "56% support X, +/- 3%". The +/- 3% is the 95% confidence interval -- or more precisely the confidence interval is 53% to 59%. There are various ways (and some debate) about the best way to interpret the confidence interval but I like "there's a 95% chance that this confidence interval contains the true value." So the 95% refers to the level of confidence you have in that estimate. If you are willing to live with less than 95% confidence (say 80%) then the CI gets narrower; if you want more confidence, it gets wider. As the sample size increases, the confidence interval gets narrower.

Now more geeky:

The confidence interval (in most cases) is just a simple function of the standard error of an estimator (e.g. the proportion of time a batter will reach base). There are formulas for figuring out the standard error for particular situations. Generally, once the sample size gets reasonably large, the distribution of almost any estimator starts to approximate the normal distribution (the bell curve) and that has an easy formula for the 95% confidence interval which is +/- 1.96*SE (standard error) which for quick and dirty uses you just round to 2 SE.

For 40 PA, the CI on an OBP is about +/- 150 points if I did the math in my head right.
   25. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: April 09, 2013 at 05:04 PM (#4408762)
If he IS cooked-- then he wasn't what I thought he was...

This is going a bit too far. We attach mental attributes to physical skills way to often. Doc had as nasty and hard a fastball as there was in the game due to his physical skills, and so he basically looked dominant and "fearless" when he was on. Now that the physical skills are declining (due to age or injury or both) the ball simply does not go in the directions it used to go. It's got nothing to do with guts or heart or intelligence, but rather the kinetic action of the ball that comes from the motion of his body. That body is either old or hurt, and so the ball aint gonna do the same things it used to.
   26. Rants Mulliniks Posted: April 09, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4408841)
Hallady as a "pitcher's pitcher".... good stuff, yes -- but also a smart pitcher that could compensate around not having his best stuff.


I never thought he could do much when he didn't have good stuff. I may be wrong, but it seems to me he's had way more meltdown games (i.e. giving up 6 or 7 runs) over his career than the other top-flight pitchers. As good as he's been, he's never had a truly dominant season. I was always hoping he'd ring up a 2.00-ish ERA some season, but he always has two or three games in which he really sucks (as opposed to have 6-8 starts giving up 4-5 runs). This says to me that when he has his stuff going good, he's basically unbeatable, but when he doesn't, he's nothing special. And based on the last 172 games, he doesn't look like he's going to adapt well to losing a few ticks off his fastball.
   27. Joey B. Posted: April 09, 2013 at 06:52 PM (#4408847)
The most laughable thing to me is everyone trying to trot out this claptrap that his problem is "mental". Nobody who knows anything at all about baseball is going to believe that rubbish; his problems are clearly 100% physical.
   28. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 09, 2013 at 08:03 PM (#4408898)
I was going to write up a big thing about his release point and how it's changed post shoulder injury, but turns out Bleacher Report already did that for me.
   29. Dale Sams Posted: April 09, 2013 at 10:50 PM (#4409311)
and Delmon Young might be back sooner


This is a good thing?

Edit: $455 to sponsor Delmon Young's Baseball Ref Page???? You should be paying me!
   30. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: April 10, 2013 at 03:55 PM (#4410083)
I may be wrong, but it seems to me he's had way more meltdown games (i.e. giving up 6 or 7 runs) over his career than the other top-flight pitchers.
you're missing what made roy halladay roy halladay.

what made halladay special, really special, was that even when he had a bad start, he still ate 6, 7, 8+ innings in that start. back in 2010 (and 2010 wasn't even his peak, in terms of "stuff"), he gave up 5+ runs in 5 games, but in those 5 games, he threw 7 innings twice, and in the other 3, he threw 6, 6 and 5.2 innings.


anyway, i think halladay will be fine. probably not 250 IP, 2.25 ERA fine, but i don't really have much doubt that he'll find a groove at some point this year. i think there's some truth to the idea that he only looked as confident as he did because he had the stuff to back him up, but i also think if he can stay healthy and continue to work out his kinks, he'll be able to find a way to get back to being effective.


You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
tshipman
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogThe 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!
(155 - 4:58am, Dec 21)
Last: toratoratora

NewsblogAngels, Red Sox discontinue pension plans for non-uniformed personnel - LA Times
(23 - 4:00am, Dec 21)
Last: The TVerik of Lordly Might

NewsblogAP sources: Umpires, MLB reach 5-year agreement
(2 - 3:21am, Dec 21)
Last: still hunting for a halo-red october (in Delphi)

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - December 2014
(762 - 3:19am, Dec 21)
Last: Win Big Stein's Money

NewsblogThe Jeff Jacobs HOF Ballot: Keep The Voting Serious And Fair
(18 - 3:12am, Dec 21)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(9189 - 1:38am, Dec 21)
Last: AuntBea

NewsblogThe right — and wrong — way for Mets to get Tulowitzki | New York Post
(12 - 1:09am, Dec 21)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogOT: Politics - December 2014: Baseball & Politics Collide in New Thriller
(5140 - 1:05am, Dec 21)
Last: GordonShumway

NewsblogGiants acquire McGehee to fill third-base spot
(4 - 1:03am, Dec 21)
Last: Cargo Cultist

Newsblog2014 Disabled List Information and So Much More – The Hardball Times
(4 - 12:59am, Dec 21)
Last: Batman

NewsblogDodgers biggest spenders in payroll
(7 - 12:42am, Dec 21)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogRuben Amaro Jr. says it would be best if Phillies move on from Ryan Howard
(35 - 12:16am, Dec 21)
Last: John Northey

Hall of Merit2015 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(105 - 11:14pm, Dec 20)
Last: Dr. Chaleeko

NewsblogTrading Justin Upton means the Braves are in full rebuilding mode | Mark Bradley blog
(94 - 10:35pm, Dec 20)
Last: greenback calls it soccer

NewsblogThe Yankees’ plan in case A-Rod can’t play at all
(11 - 9:31pm, Dec 20)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.3356 seconds
50 querie(s) executed