But opposing hitters could not intentionally hit the ball his way, as they could if he were at third

This could make Cabrera the most valuable defender in history. Imagine if instead of trying to drive the ball somewhere, all the batters tried to hit grounders to third. Pure genius by Dombrowski.

What do you think the OBP would be on bunt attempts to Cabrera? I wouldn't be at all surprised if speedy good bunters reached 55-60% of the time, counting both singles and errors.

I like him a lot more in right than at third.

What do you think the OBP would be on bunt attempts to Cabrera? I wouldn't be at all surprised if speedy good bunters reached 55-60% of the time, counting both singles and errors.

As with the logic behind #1, I think the real numbers would back up the assertion of "Every single batter in baseball, including 'speedy good bunters' are more than welcome to get up there and try and bunt to third, everytime.'

Besides This guy?? has no range or speed?

That guy should let the second baseman handle routine grounders to second base.

This stuff is comically overblown. Yes, corner defense is going to sink the Tigers. Good grief.

This stuff is comically overblown. Yes, corner defense is going to sink the Tigers. Good grief.

You really think the potential of giving away 30 runs, 3 wins, at 1B and 3B on defense is no big thing?

-30 at 1B/3B is no different than -30 at SS/CF. In fact, it's a lot less excusable. It's hard to find SS/CFs with the bat to play in MLB.

If Fielder is adding 40-60 runs with bat (over an avg. scrap heap DH) it is significant that they may be handing 20-25 of those right back with a stupid defensive lineup.

Cabrera's debut in right field was during the 2003 NLCS - he started Game 3 at third, and moved to right field during a double-switch in the seventh. He then started the remaining four games of the NLCS and three World Series games in right. It's not exactly Mickey Stanley taking over the shortstop job for the Tigers in 1968, but how many managers would be willing to go through the playoffs and World Series with a player at a position they'd never played before in the majors?

You really think the potential of giving away 30 runs, 3 wins, at 1B and 3B on defense is no big thing?

It's not ideal. Upgrading from Inge to Fielder in the lineup is easily worth it. The faith in defensive stats, especially -laugh- first base fielding stats (that neglect scoops and stretch) is silly.

It's possible that Cabrera and/or Fielder lose weight and become better fielders.

Fielder will be in the lineup no matter what. The question is whether you play Inge at 3B, Cabrera at 1B, and Fielder at DH, or Cabrera at 3B, Fielder at 1B, and sign a cheap free agent to DH, benching Inge. If the defensive difference between the two configurations is about 25 runs as I speculate--Cabrera being say -20, Inge say +3 and Fielder say 2 runs worse than Cabrera at 1B--then you'd need to sign a DH who hits 25 runs better than Inge to make the tradeoff worth it. ZiPS projects Inge for a 76 OPS+, so you'd need a 105 OPS+ bat. Maybe Matsui projects around there, but maybe he doesn't, and he wouldn't be free. Moreover, you're also increasing Cabrera's risk of injury, so you'd need an even better replacement DH to compensate for that drawback.

I think flat out stating that Cabrera is a -20 3B full stop is pretty hard to support.

and sign a cheap free agent to DH

Dan: Young/Raburn/Santiago can be the DH, with Young/Raburn in LF and Santiago/Raburn at 2B.

In the thread about Martinez going down, I said this:

They don't need a DH. They need a third baseman. If I were Dombrowski, I'd think about signing Pena, telling Cabrera to be ready to play third base, and signing Wilson Betemit.

Everyone laughed at me, but I didn't see anyone else on the internet proposing this, so I will take credit for the fact that Cabrera is now moving to third.

I don't know whether he'll play a capable 3B. But like I said, there's no reason why he can't.

What do you think the OBP would be on bunt attempts to Cabrera? I wouldn't be at all surprised if speedy good bunters reached 55-60% of the time, counting both singles and errors.

Just curious, who are the historically awful fielding third basemen, and is there any data on whether opposing teams bunted a lot against them and how much difference that made?

I think flat out stating that Cabrera is a -20 3B full stop is pretty hard to support.

So a few years ago there was this 28 year-old +10 SS who moved to 3B. A year later he was a -10 3B. Now we're talking about a 29 year-old -5 1B moving over to 3B and it's hard to support penciling him in for -20 defense? Sure, maybe he won't be that bad. Maybe he'll take Ray's advice and be even better than not that bad. But -20 actually seems like a perfectly reasonable thumbnail guesstimate.

I think flat out stating that Cabrera is a -20 3B full stop is pretty hard to support.

This guy was something like a -12 3B five years ago.

He was so bad in 116 innings in 2008, they moved him to 1B.

Since then, he's been a below avg. 1B. The positional adjustment is 15 runs.

-20 is exactly what we'd expect a below avg. 1B to be.

tshipman--I tried to "show my work" in the article. Cabrera was -12 in 2006-07. Just from the aging curve, we'd expect him to be -18 by now. Then you add on five years of rust, and it's hard to imagine him being better than -20. Now, if he's really -20, you can probably juust about live with that--as snapper notes, a -20 3B has the same value as a -5 1B. But that's before factoring in the injury risk. And of course, given how long he's been away from the position, there's a significant chance he's far worse than -20, and goes rookie-year-Ryan-Braun on us. And that's just too grim to contemplate.

[15] Just curious, who are the historically awful fielding third basemen

For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, Played 100 games at 3B, (requiring runs_fielding<=-15 and onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=130), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

                                                                                          
Rk           Player WAR/pos Rfield OPS+ Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS   Pos
1         Joe Torre     6.8    -25  171 1971  30 STL NL 161 707 .363 .421 .555  .976    *5
2        Dick Allen     5.9    -15  174 1967  25 PHI NL 122 540 .307 .404 .566  .970 *5/64
3    Howard Johnson     4.1    -15  145 1991  30 NYM NL 156 658 .259 .342 .535  .877  *596
4        Eddie Yost     3.7    -16  131 1951  24 WSH AL 154 716 .283 .423 .424  .847  *5/7
5    Fernando Tatis     3.2    -22  139 1999  24 STL NL 149 639 .298 .404 .553  .957    *5
6        Ryan Braun     1.5    -35  154 2007  23 MIL NL 113 492 .324 .370 .634 1.004    *5

Source: BB-REF PI

[18] And of course, given how long he's been away from the position, there's a significant chance he's far worse than -20, and goes rookie-year-Ryan-Braun on us. And that's just too grim to contemplate.

Maybe Cabrera goes from being a 7-8 WAR player to a 4-5 WAR player, if the fielding doesn't affect his hitting.

Miguel Cabrera Player Value

                                                   
Year   Age  Tm  Lg   PA Rfield  WAR oWAR dWAR   Pos
2003    20 FLA  NL  346     -3  0.5  0.8 -0.3    75
2004    21 FLA  NL  685    -10  3.1  4.0 -0.9 *97/D
2005    22 FLA  NL  685    -13  4.6  5.7 -1.1   *75
2006    23 FLA  NL  676     -6  6.6  7.2 -0.6  *5/D
2007    24 FLA  NL  680    -11  3.9  5.0 -1.1  *5/D

2008    25 DET  AL  684     -2  3.1  3.4 -0.3 *35/D
2009    26 DET  AL  685     -2  4.1  4.3 -0.2  *3/D
2010    27 DET  AL  648     -3  7.2  7.4 -0.2  *3/D
2011    28 DET  AL  688     -8  7.1  7.8 -0.7  *3/D

Source BB-REF

[15] Just curious, who are the historically awful fielding third basemen, and is there any data on whether opposing teams bunted a lot against them and how much difference that made?

From his B-R fielding page, Ryan Braun's 2007 BIS Bunts Fielded Runs Above Average was -1. (2007 NL 3B Gold Glove winner) David Wright's was +3.

If I am reading the "Advanced Fielding -- 3B" tables right:
* David Wright fielded 23 bunts in 159 games at 3B (1418 innings, 6149 PA) that year and 74% of those plays resulted in outs.

* Ryan Braun fielded 19 bunts in 112 games at 3B (945 innings, 4179 PA) and 53% of those plays resulted in outs. That 19 bunts translates to 27-28 bunts for Wright's playing time.

* In 2007 Braun fielded 273 balls and 78% resulted in outs, versus an MLB average of 87%.

Maybe Cabrera goes from being a 7-8 WAR player to a 4-5 WAR player, if the fielding doesn't affect his hitting.

As Snapper and Dan R note above, the positional adjustment will compensate for a lot of terrible defense. In theory, his oWAR goes up while dWAR plummets. Cabrera's 181 OPS+ last year would be the third highest by a 3B (min 100 games) ever, behind Brett's 203 and Schmidt's 199. That will make up for a few muffed bunts.

Not that I think this is a good move, I expect it to be a disaster (at least defensively) and for the experiment to end quickly.

Holy crap! The Giants moved Mel Ott to 3B at age 29 -- I never knew that.

Bobm: Do you have figures for Mark Reynolds? IIRC his problem was more reflexive and less ability to come in on a grounder, but he's pretty darn bad. I can't believe the Orioles used him at 3B so much last year.

tshipman--I tried to "show my work" in the article. Cabrera was -12 in 2006-07. Just from the aging curve, we'd expect him to be -18 by now. Then you add on five years of rust, and it's hard to imagine him being better than -20. Now, if he's really -20, you can probably juust about live with that--as snapper notes, a -20 3B has the same value as a -5 1B. But that's before factoring in the injury risk. And of course, given how long he's been away from the position, there's a significant chance he's far worse than -20, and goes rookie-year-Ryan-Braun on us. And that's just too grim to contemplate.

I am somewhat skeptical that Cabrera's defensive history should be treated as written. A large part of Cabrera's decline was related to his alcoholism. Cabrera as an alcoholic was -12. His hitting has bounced back in a big way since 2008. Should we not expect his fielding? Some parts of Cabrera's game seem more suited to 3rd than first base--I think it's quite possible that he's only around -10, and I wouldn't be shocked if he were a scratch 3b. A motivated Hall of Fame caliber player is a tough thing to bet against.

I'm not a Tigers fan, so I don't watch a ton of their games, but some Tigers fans have pointed out that he moved in 2008 because of how bad Guillen was at 1st, not due to his performance solely.

#21 As Bill James noted, in the 60s and 70s the Giants tried pretty much everybody who could hit and was right-handed at third (Orlando Cepeda only lasted 4 games there. He made 3 errors in 8 chances before they gave up.). And in the late 70s to early 80s some of their experiments were just plain weird. Like Evans. We don't think he can handle third any longer. Let's try him at shortstop. They were also playing third-basemen (Madlock for instance) at second.

[22] Bobm: Do you have figures for Mark Reynolds? IIRC his problem was more reflexive and less ability to come in on a grounder, but he's pretty darn bad. I can't believe the Orioles used him at 3B so much last year.

It seems Reynolds' play at 3B fell off a cliff last year.

From Mark Reynolds' fielding page at BB-REF:

                           
Year    Tm  Lg Age Pos Rbnt
2007   ARI  NL  23  3B    1
2007   ARI  NL  23  2B    0
2007   ARI  NL  23  RF    0

2008   ARI  NL  24  3B   -1
2008   ARI  NL  24  1B    0

2009   ARI  NL  25  3B   -1
2009   ARI  NL  25  1B    0

2010   ARI  NL  26  3B    1
2010   ARI  NL  26  1B    0

2011   BAL  AL  27  3B   -4
2011   BAL  AL  27  1B   -1

         5 Seasons  3B   -4
         4 Seasons  1B   -1

Rbnt = "BIS Bunts Fielded Runs Above Average"

Advanced Fielding - 3B

                                             
                                             
Year    Tm  Lg Age    PA  Fld F2O% bFld bF2O%
2007   ARI  NL  23  3615  228  86%   12   75%
2008   ARI  NL  24  5480  374  82%   19   58%
2009   ARI  NL  25  4872  367  83%   21   67%
2010   ARI  NL  26  5346  375  87%   18   78%
2011   BAL  AL  27  4336  273  77%   12   33%

         5 Seasons 23649 1617  83%   82   63%

         MLB Averages          87%        65%

Fld - Number of balls fielded
F2O% - Percentage of balls fielded that resulted in outs
bFld - Number of balls fielded
bF2O% - Percentage of balls fielded that resulted in outs

#21 As Bill James noted, in the 60s and 70s the Giants tried pretty much everybody who could hit and was right-handed at third (Orlando Cepeda only lasted 4 games there. He made 3 errors in 8 chances before they gave up.). And in the late 70s to early 80s some of their experiments were just plain weird. Like Evans. We don't think he can handle third any longer. Let's try him at shortstop. They were also playing third-basemen (Madlock for instance) at second.

Ugh. Those Giant teams rivaled the Minaya Mets for their stars and scrubs (mis)approach and bedrock belief that anyone could play any position on the diamond if they just really, really wanted to.

Holy crap! The Giants moved Mel Ott to 3B at age 29 -- I never knew that.

#21 As Bill James noted, in the 60s and 70s the Giants tried pretty much everybody who could hit and was right-handed at third (Orlando Cepeda only lasted 4 games there. He made 3 errors in 8 chances before they gave up.). And in the late 70s to early 80s some of their experiments were just plain weird. Like Evans. We don't think he can handle third any longer. Let's try him at shortstop. They were also playing third-basemen (Madlock for instance) at second.

I assume this comment wasn't in response to the quoted part of #21, but it makes for a much weirder mental picture if it is, since Ott died in 1958.

tshipman--Cabrera's stopped drinking? He's had a DUI in the past year, no? And I was under the impression his on-field issues had more to do with how much he ate (and/or didn't exercise) than how much he drank.

#27 Well the idea was to show that the notion that anybody could play third didn't end with the Ott experiment. Of course with Jim Ray Hart and Dave Kingman (who grades out surprisingly well in TotalZone given his huge error rate) the Giants of the 60s and 70s were taking it to a new level.

On another related note, James offers up a simple rule for evaluating how good somebody was defensively. If he spent substantial time at a more demanding position he was likely good at his primary position. If he spent substantial at a less demanding position he likely wasn't. James says to ignore this rule if the guy played for the Giants.

I guess you can fault the Giants for sticking with Hart too long but I think trying was obviously right in his situation. I mean a 22-year-old kid comes up who can post a 130 OPS+ year after year and you've got a pretty fair center fielder, plus two fairly good guys to handle the 1B/LF spots, and then for your other outfield spot you've got two Alous, plus a still useful Harvey Kuenn plus Duke Snider. The harder part to understand is sticking with it once injuries started to run through that outfield, and you had years where Len Gabrielson and Ty Cline are holding down left. How did Hart get hurt? Was that related to playing third?

Cabrera's stopped drinking? He's had a DUI in the past year, no?

Last offseason, yes. By all accounts the Tigers keep him pretty well locked down during the season, which isn't at all surprising. During their champagne ceremony this past season, for example, Cabrera sat with Leyland in Leyland's office while the party was going on. Probably not ideal, but it shows how seriously they're taking this.

Anecdotally, he looks and acts quite a bit different since he reportedly got on the wagon.

I remember Hart started having shoulder problems starting in 1968.

The Giants basically started to move him off 3B in 1967 - he started putting in more time in LF, after the Giants had gotten rid of Cepeda and the two good Alous.

No mention in the article that if Cabrera misses a ball at 3B there's a good chance Delmon Young misplays it into a triple.

He was so bad in 116 innings in 2008, they moved him to 1B.

That move was more about getting Guillen off of first than it was about getting Cabrera off of third.

Looking over the fans scouting report (2011 only), he profiles similarly to a very slow David Freese or Kevin Youkilis or Ryan Roberts, or a Micheal Young or Aramis Ramirez with a better arm.

Which is better than I thought, actually. The only thing spectacularly awful thing for a 3B would be his sprint speed, which is equaled by only Aramis, Miggy Tejada and Casey McGahee. The other tools are about average for a bad 3B.

Of course, while the ratings are meant to be position nonspecific, there's probably a bias that Cabrera is being compared to 1B while these guys are compared to 3B. But other than coming in on bunts, he looks like a perfectly fine poor 3B by this data.

Looking over the fans scouting report (2011 only), he profiles similarly to a very slow David Freese or Kevin Youkilis or Ryan Roberts, or a Micheal Young or Aramis Ramirez with a better arm.

Which is better than I thought, actually. The only thing spectacularly awful thing for a 3B would be his sprint speed, which is equaled by only Aramis, Miggy Tejada and Casey McGahee. The other tools are about average for a bad 3B.

Are those tools rated on an absolute basis, or relative to position?

I'm assuming relative, b/c how do you compare a SS arm to a CF?

Are those tools rated on an absolute basis, or relative to position?

I'm assuming relative, b/c how do you compare a SS arm to a CF?

The instructions are very explicit that they should be absolute, but who knows how possible that is or how well the respondents have followed the directions.

It's possible that Cabrera and/or Fielder lose weight and become better fielders.


It's possible that Ray votes for Obama in 2012.

The instructions are very explicit that they should be absolute, but who knows how possible that is or how well the respondents have followed the directions.

OK. I'd have a really hard time comparing across position.

I have no idea how an arm that looks great at 3B compares to an arm that looks great in RF.

A motivated Hall of Fame caliber player is a tough thing to bet against.

I find this a somewhat odd comment. The HoF is full of lousy fielders who, presumably, were fully motivated to be great hitters. I don't think that what kept Ted Williams from being a great CF or 3B was his lack of motivation. Cabrera is possibly an HoF-caliber player (let's see his decline phase first please) but that's only because he's a great hitter. He's big, he's slow and he's never had a single season with positive Rfield (which is pretty rare even for lousy fielders). I don't question his motivation, I simply question his non-hitting talent

... as everyone did for Williams and Stargell and Manny and McCovey and ...

By the way, the worst Rfield in the HoF is Dave Winfield at -89. Cabrera is already at -56. He's got a good shot at passing Stargell at -70 and maybe McCovey at -78 if they play him at 3B all year. Killebrew is at -77 and, like Cabrera, some of that is due to playing a good chunk of 3B and so isn't really as bad as McCovey's -78. (I wish P-I had a wider range of things you could do with these WAR categories ... doesn't even let you select/sort by oWAR.)

Here are some other reasonable Cabrera hitting/fielding comps through age 28: Thomas, Horner, Madlock, Allen, Sheffield. He's probably better than Thomas and Sheffield* and maybe Allen in the field.

Hey, remember early this offseason when somebody raised the possibility of the Cubs signing both Pujols and Fielder and we all laughed and laughed and laughed. Well, the Tigers nearly did it ... difference being they at least have the fall-back of putting one of these guys at DH where they belong.

*Sheffield's Rfield is so bad that even Sheffield wasn't that bad.

By the way, the worst Rfield in the HoF is Dave Winfield at -89.

For now. Jeter is at -141 and counting.

tshipman--Cabrera's stopped drinking? He's had a DUI in the past year, no? And I was under the impression his on-field issues had more to do with how much he ate (and/or didn't exercise) than how much he drank.

The DUI is worrisome. The word is that if one is "slipping", something's not working. That's a generalization, of course, that may have no bearing on Carbrera's life and play. It's just been my experience that for problem drinkers (never mind alcoholics) a slip is often more than just an isolated rough patch.