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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

National Baseball Writers: Your Tampa Bay Rays Hot Takes are Bad - DRaysBay

A smart take.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 21, 2018 at 09:15 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rays

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: February 22, 2018 at 12:26 AM (#5628469)
Not buying it. Not that this article is really selling anything, I don't find anything in there convincing. It's mostly "hey player X could be as good as player Y". Wow.

But just don't buy it overall. Rays payroll stands (according to b-r) at a measly $80 M with Gomez. It's really not even clear how it's that high -- OK, they're still including arb estimated for 3 guys no longer on the 40-man so it's really about $71.

So fine, maybe Cron at $2.3 M and 3 years of control total is better than Dickerson at 1/$6; maybe Gomez at 1/$4 is better than 3 years of Souza starting at 1/$3.6. But c'mon, they could have all 4 players for a measly $9 M more. You could have an OF of Gomez, Kiermaier, Souza, Cron at 1B, Dickerson at DH and do whatever at the other 4 positions.

Sure, folks aren't clamoring for the guys Tampa has walked away from. But nobody was exactly clamoring for Cron or Gomez either. And in particular, unless there's some personality issue or something, I see no reason to just walk away from Dickerson. This is all just stuff around the margins, practically derivatives trading of "we can get 1.5 WAR for $2.3 M from Cron and 1.5 WAR for $4 M from Gomez and that's a better deal than 3.5 WAR for $9.5 M from Souza and Dickerson" variety. At best, wheels spun with $3 M in savings -- hooray for their bean counters!

You never know. These are the sort of trades that Beane used to make reasonably successfully -- cheap guys with control left for some middling prospects and one of those prospects turns into a cheap guy with control left that you trade for some middling prospects ... And like those A's teams, I don't see how they'll score runs but those A's teams were usually decent and even occasionally good. One of the kids they got could easily turn into Souza.
   2. eddieot Posted: February 22, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5628528)
Meanwhile the Phillies, sitting in the 3rd largest media market in the US, are going to come in with a payroll under $70M this year and nobody is saying boo about it. Given what's happening in the market they could sign Arrieta and Lynn and still have enough to pursue Harper or Machado next year. It's not like the division is a gimme. The Marlins have given up, the Braves are about equal in terms of young unproven talent that needs to step up, the Mets are, well, the Mets. So why not make a run at the Nats? If the union should have any complaints about a team that can compete but is choosing not to its the Phils.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 22, 2018 at 09:05 AM (#5628530)
But just don't buy it overall. Rays payroll stands (according to b-r) at a measly $80 M with Gomez. It's really not even clear how it's that high -- OK, they're still including arb estimated for 3 guys no longer on the 40-man so it's really about $71.

So fine, maybe Cron at $2.3 M and 3 years of control total is better than Dickerson at 1/$6; maybe Gomez at 1/$4 is better than 3 years of Souza starting at 1/$3.6. But c'mon, they could have all 4 players for a measly $9 M more. You could have an OF of Gomez, Kiermaier, Souza, Cron at 1B, Dickerson at DH and do whatever at the other 4 positions.

Sure, folks aren't clamoring for the guys Tampa has walked away from. But nobody was exactly clamoring for Cron or Gomez either. And in particular, unless there's some personality issue or something, I see no reason to just walk away from Dickerson. This is all just stuff around the margins, practically derivatives trading of "we can get 1.5 WAR for $2.3 M from Cron and 1.5 WAR for $4 M from Gomez and that's a better deal than 3.5 WAR for $9.5 M from Souza and Dickerson" variety. At best, wheels spun with $3 M in savings -- hooray for their bean counters!


Agree 100%

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