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Friday, February 06, 2009

Nationals, LHP (Odalis) Perez agree to minor league deal

Odalis Perez and the Washington Nationals agreed to a non-guaranteed minor league contract Thursday.

The left-hander went 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA for Washington in 2008, throwing 159 2-3 innings over 30 starts. He would get $850,000 if he makes the major league club this season.

Perez signed a minor league deal last year as well. I am sure he didn’t think he’d have to do the same considering he made 30 starts last year and posted a better than average ERA+.

I’d rather have Perez than Redding.

Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 06, 2009 at 07:30 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1. Brian Oliver Posted: February 06, 2009 at 01:39 PM (#3069187)
A solid low downside risk. Best case scenario, he pitches like he did in 2008 and the Nationals flip him for a mid-level prospect or two in June/July.
   2. JoeHova Posted: February 06, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3069190)
Damn, I was hoping the Brewers would sign him to a major league deal. They really need another starter and he's been OK for a few seasons of his career. Nice move by Bowden.
   3. Arva Posted: February 06, 2009 at 01:52 PM (#3069192)
Actually, I don't see how the Nats can flip him for a mid-level prospect. He was freely available, and absolutely no one wanted him. No one wanted him last year, either. He still not a bad signing, because someone's gotta pitch, but I don't think Perez has any trade value, and that's a little strange based on the numbers.
   4. sbiel2 Posted: February 06, 2009 at 02:10 PM (#3069197)
It's a great move given the cost (and let's be clear--Perez is an upgrade from every pitcher on the team after Lannan), but I really can't understand how it's possible that NO TEAM would offer him a 1-year major league deal.
   5. Chris Needham Posted: February 06, 2009 at 02:43 PM (#3069217)
but I don't think Perez has any trade value, and that's a little strange based on the numbers.

It's possible, but you never know what's going to happen mid-season... maybe there's a surprise contender, maybe someone important blows out there arm. Needs are different at different times of the year.

Last year, I don't think there was much interest in him because he was coming off a few bad seasons. Those were outweighing the solid contributions he had been making for the first half.

Next season, assuming he pitches as well, there's a 2-year track record of success that GMs will probably be a bit more comfortable looking at.

(But you're right; you're not going to get an A+ prospect for him either way)
   6. sjberke Posted: February 06, 2009 at 02:46 PM (#3069222)
Actually, sbiel2, you may have forgotten they now have Scott Olsen. Perez is better than any starter on the Nats other than Lannan and Olsen, at the present moment. Whether that will be true on Opening Day or later (assuming no major free agent starters are signed) depends on (1) whether Shawn Hill returns to good health, (2) whether Collin Balester continues to develop, and (3) whether Jordan Zimmermann makes the rotation out of spring training.

And as for Perez' eventual trade value...remember a couple of years back Bowden got a pretty decent prospect, Shairon Martis, for Mike Stanton.
   7. Chris Needham Posted: February 06, 2009 at 02:49 PM (#3069226)
Shhhh! Don't get him going, sjberke.

He thinks that Scott Olsen is a puppy-raping sack of crap who's got less value to a major league roster than Tony Saunders' left arm.
   8. sbiel2 Posted: February 06, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3069257)
@6--Zimmermann could overtake them all, but I really hope he's not in the rotation on opening day because of the innings jump. Yes, Hill if healthy is the best of the bunch, but...

As for Perez v. Olsen, last year Perez's FIP was 4.62, and Olsen's was 5.02. Neither was any great shakes, but Olsen was more lucky than good. Also, the trendlines on Olsen's peripherals are all down--esp. K rate--his velocity is down 3 mph, and he only survived last year with a .266 BABIP.

That said, PECOTA sees Perez with a 4.44 ERA and Olsen at 4.42. A reasonable person could argue that they are similar, but I think Olsen's best days are behind him. And then there's the clubhouse cancer issue. So it's true, I'm not a fan of Olsen or the trade that brought him here.

Based purely on the present right now (not considering long-term potential) I would probably rank the rotation best to worst (leaving out Flash Jordan and assuming a healthy Hill) like this: Hill, Lannan, Perez, Bergmann, Cabrera, Olsen, Balester, Martis. Bergy, D-Cab, Olsen, and Balester are all kinda the same in my mind, so you could re-rank those however you want. Mock is another wildcard in my mind who could, if given a chance emerge as the best of the group. I'm also kinda curious to see what J.D. Martin can do, though I may be the only one.
   9. thetailor Posted: February 06, 2009 at 03:55 PM (#3069273)
Odalis Perez isn't the worst pitcher in the world, and I tend to agree with #1 that there is little downside plus the ability to flip him to a contender for something.

But... 30 starts and less than 160 innings? Holy cow. That sucks.
   10. sjberke Posted: February 06, 2009 at 03:58 PM (#3069279)
We'll just have to see who's right about Perez and Olsen (of course, the trade that brought him here also brought Willingham, and cost only Emilio Bonifacio and two decent but not great prospects).

My understanding was that Mock was going to be in the bullpen this year. I also wouldn't forget the other half of the Livan trade, Matt Chico, who was an effective starter when healthy.
   11. Chris Needham Posted: February 06, 2009 at 03:59 PM (#3069281)
Some of that's Odalis, but a lot of it's Manny. He generally yanks pitchers early and often. There are a bunch of 75-95 pitch starts in there, where they could've gotten another inning out of him.

Of course, some of that's because they were behind so much, and the PH opportunity came up.
   12. Chris Needham Posted: February 06, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3069284)
My understanding was that Mock was going to be in the bullpen this year

I think that that's where they envision him long-term. 'til this last season, his hits allowed were so consistently out of line with his strikeout totals, that he seemed like he'd be a good candidate to flame out in the majors.

When I saw him pitch, I wasn't too terribly impressed. I wonder if their scouting reports say he doesn't have enough command of all his pitches to be an effective starter.
   13. plim Posted: February 06, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3069285)
perez is a sinkerballer/gb pitcher, right?

he's got some really curious numbers:
- he has a fairly healthy 2.37 k/bb ratio (esp since a lot of gb pitchers tend to walk more people when getting behind the count, thinking they can get the gidp with the next batter)

- but as a gb pitcher, he gives up an awful lot of home runs: 14-28/year (25+ starts/season), averages 0.7 per start.

- and he still gets his GIDPs: 12-25/year (0.56/start)

- but his BA allowed on ground balls is higher than his BA allowed on fly balls by over 30 pts.

- he's also had some unlucky years. his worst (probably) was 2004 when he was the 11th unluckiest pitcher, posting a 7-6 record on 31 starts, despite an expected 13.7-7.8 record (-4.95 luck). last year was pretty unlucky too: 7-12 on 30 starts, expected 8.8-9.9 (-3.84 luck). and as luck would have it, his best year (2002), 15-10 on 32 starts, he should've gone 16-8.3 (-2.73 luck). even 03 was slightly unlucky (-1.53).

he's not a horrible pitcher (career 95 era+), and he's "only" 32 years old this year. sad that he's relegated to a minor league deal. and as a lefty, you'd think he'd have a little more desirability than this...
   14. sbiel2 Posted: February 06, 2009 at 04:09 PM (#3069295)
@11--no question the innings per start tells you more about Acta's aggressiveness with PHs than Perez's pitching. Odalis was actually incredibly consistent and on the few times he was allowed to go deeper he did fine. I think the way Manny does it is the right way to go though. Too many managers are too willing to throw away ABs on pitchers.

@10--I know the deal. Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen for Jake Smolinski, PJ Dean, and Emilio Bonifacio. To me, Olsen is a more combustible, more expensive version of Bergmann. Willingham with any luck will be on the bench watching Adam Dunn play. I'd rather start Willingham than anyone else we have right now, let's be clear that offense and defense combined he'll be worse than Willie Harris's 2008 production (not that I expect Willie to repeat his career year, but there it is). What's to be so excited about? And bottom line, the three guys we sent away would have had more of a chance to contribute to a contender in DC than the 2 guys we got back. To me that's always the bottom line. Are we getting closer to a WS. That deal arguably made us a win or 2 better in 2009, but long-term it's a wash at best.
   15. sbiel2 Posted: February 06, 2009 at 04:15 PM (#3069298)
@13--No, he isn't a sinkerballer. My read is that he throws a 4-seam fastball, a pitch that's kind of a slider/cutter, a change, and an occasional curve.
   16. Moloka'i Three-Finger Brown (Declino DeShields) Posted: February 06, 2009 at 04:20 PM (#3069306)
Odalis was actually incredibly consistent and on the few times he was allowed to go deeper he did fine.


Manny pretty much cut him off at 100 (which wasn't an Odalis-specific figure, of course). That was generally good enough to get him through six. He pitched into the eighth twice, and he did fine on both those occasions, with Manny pulling him mid-inning at 102 and 106 pitches. He had one other seven-inning start that lasted only 89 pitches.

Perez was fine, better than could've been expected last year, and I wonder if the disconnect between his W/L record and his ERA scared off potential trade suitors. I know that sounds like a beknighted thing to suggest these days, but a guy with a flip-flopped W/L record and a worse ERA would've probably been dealt to a contender at some point during the season.

(Then again, given Perez had to resort to another minor-league deal, there might be other things going on.)
   17. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: February 06, 2009 at 06:29 PM (#3069482)
Perez was fine, better than could've been expected last year, and I wonder if the disconnect between his W/L record and his ERA scared off potential trade suitors.

No, I think what probably scared teams off was his 84 ERA+ in 2007, 74 in 2006 and 90 in 2005.

Were the 2007-2005 Dodgers and Royals extremely poor defensive teams, or is there something about Perez that makes him drastically under perform his Fips?
   18. plim Posted: February 06, 2009 at 07:38 PM (#3069577)
@13--No, he isn't a sinkerballer. My read is that he throws a 4-seam fastball, a pitch that's kind of a slider/cutter, a change, and an occasional curve.

wow. seems odd that he'd have a 1.58 gb/fb ratio and all those gidps with a bunch of (normally) fly ball-inducing pitches. maybe the slider/cutter has some extra downward movement on it?

btw, i don't know if this is right, but i got that from bb-ref's hit trajectory since espn's gb/fb numbers only had his last year.

Were the 2007-2005 Dodgers and Royals extremely poor defensive teams, or is there something about Perez that makes him drastically under perform his Fips?

don't know for sure, but looking at the dodgers' error totals and defensive efficiency rating, they seem to be worst 5 in both each of those years. not that they're the best metrics, but seems to be the easiest to eyeball.
   19. sbiel2 Posted: February 06, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3069616)
Fangraphs has GB% going back a few years. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=668&position=P He was a pretty extreme GB pitcher back when he burst on with LA, but lately his GB numbers are pretty moderate. A sinkerballer's going to be over 50%.

Josh Kalk's old player cards shows that yes indeed the slutter has downward movement. I also would guess he gets a fair number of grounders off the change. http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Odalis_Perez.html
   20. CraigK Posted: February 06, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3069663)
All I remember about Odalis is how Pujols massacres him in every matchup.
   21. Pete Toms Posted: February 06, 2009 at 08:51 PM (#3069667)
Well, my team could use him. Halladay, Litsch ( #2 starter, that tells us everything we need to know about the upcoming Jays season ), Purcey and...Janssen, Richmond, Cecil, Maroth, Romero, Burres.....I think they could have found some work for Perez. Christ, I was disappointed they let Parrish go....oh I forgot, they've got the 39 year old from Japan too.
   22. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: February 06, 2009 at 09:07 PM (#3069678)
Completely off subject, but BBRef says he's 6'0'' and 150 pounds.

Seriously?!?
   23. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 06, 2009 at 09:32 PM (#3069704)
The Jays also just picked up T.J. Beam!
   24. MM1f Posted: February 07, 2009 at 08:49 AM (#3070011)

It's a great move given the cost (and let's be clear--Perez is an upgrade from every pitcher on the team after Lannan), but I really can't understand how it's possible that NO TEAM would offer him a 1-year major league deal.


Poor injury history and poor attitude/intelligence rep.
That being said, yes, someone should've given him a shot.

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