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Monday, October 01, 2012

NBA Monthly Thread, October 2012

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: making fun of sportswriters and immigration reform.

Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 01, 2012 at 10:16 AM | 882 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. BochysFingers Posted: October 01, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4250611)
With possibly no NHL this year, I may have to watch a basketball game or sixty.
   2. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: October 02, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4250627)
BBTF fantasy basketball league. 16 teams max (we're at 10 now); scoring based on Hollinger's Game Score:
(Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)
League is #17814; PW is albright
   3. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 02, 2012 at 08:33 AM (#4250750)
From July to October in a single thread. the NBA thread needs to kick it up, which we should now that the games are looming. here's hoping Ricky! and his knee function better than ever.
   4. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 02, 2012 at 09:22 AM (#4250781)
From Hollinger's 2012-13 projections - name these two guys.

Player A: 17.7 PTS, 6.6 REB, 2.5 AST, 54.9 TS%, 15.10 PER
Player B: 15.4 PTS, 6.4 REB, 2.4 AST, 54.8 TS%, 15.15 PER

A: "his two main weapons are 3s and dunks ... (but) shot (only) 33.8 percent on 2s outside the basket area, and between that and a low foul rate, he finished with a merely good true shooting percentage rather than an exceptional one. (His) ballhandling numbers also were decent, and his rebound rate put him in the top third of small forwards in that category. Athletic ... mediocre motor... play(s) passable defense"

B: "(shot) 36.0 percent on 3s and a stellar 68.4 percent at the rim, (but) missed nearly everything in between (31.6 percent between rim and 3-point line) and rarely draws fouls ... is a lousy ballhandler with a high, erratic dribble, but he knows it and rarely bounces it in traffic -- he had the fifth-lowest turnover ratio at his position as a result. He also ranked in the top third of small forwards in rebound rate. Length an asset on defense but effort inconsistent."
   5. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 02, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4250858)
Was up all night playing NBA2K13. It. Is. Awesome. The attention to detail is stunning, they even have signature player yells after contact.
   6. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: October 02, 2012 at 10:09 AM (#4250861)
The attention to detail is stunning, they even have signature player yells after contact.
For Boozer, variations on "And one!", I hope.
   7. jmurph Posted: October 02, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4250868)
For Boozer


Can you hear Thibodeau yelling at Boozer on every defensive possession?
   8. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 02, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4250916)
Questions for Moses and other Chicago fans: are you down on Reinsdorf in a big way? Or is this just a bump in the road? Doolittle, as I said, was pretty negative.

He is who he is, and it's not going to change. He's going to manage the team like they're in a small market, while pocketing more profits than any other team. Everyone's making a big deal about them finally paying the luxury tax this year - but they're barely going to pay anything and they might try to get under it (depending on Rose's rehab). It's almost a forgone conclusion they're going to amnesty Boozer after this year - which might be the right basketball move, but it'll be for the wrong reason - and not spend real money to try and replace his production (Gibson is likely to get an extension, rumors are it might be done by the 10/31 deadline).

Chicago has had a lot of bad owners - the Wirtzes*, the McCaskeys, the Tribunes, etc - that he is seen as one of the good owners, plus the 6 titles help buy him a lot of goodwill. He does have his good qualities - I've talked about loyalty before when it comes to former players. But bottom line, he runs the Bulls like a business and the Sox like his passion. Blogabull is also pretty down on him, and the part that makes it worse is that he says one thing and does another. I'm sure if he didn't constantly mislead and get people's hopes up it wouldn't seem as bad.

*Rocky is great. Dollar Bill was the worst owner of any sport team in my lifetime.
   9. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4250926)
Can you hear Thibodeau yelling at Boozer on every defensive possession?

Not sure, but I played against OKC and there was an inbounds play where Westbrook was supposed to cut to the basket and I pushed him off his spot and the coach could be heard yelling at him to get free. Seriously.
   10. tshipman Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4250933)
From Hollinger's 2012-13 projections - name these two guys.


Dorell Wright and Michael Beasley?

Total guess.
   11. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4250938)
Man, I was so wrong on Gibson - I thought he'd be like an 11th man type.

Everyone's making a big deal about them finally paying the luxury tax this year
How much attention is their hard capping themselves getting in the local press? I'd think that'd mitigate the tax willingness stuff quite a bit.
   12. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4250944)
Half right, tshipman - nice job! Dorell Wright is player B. You'll get to know player A soon enough.

(Wasn't meant to be an easy question, but I was blown away at the similarities between these two dudes.)
   13. JJ1986 Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4250946)
You'll get to know player A soon enough.


Jamison?
   14. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4250956)
(sorry - overly leading - not a laker. there's another team he and i have discussed on many occasions.)
   15. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4250959)
Man, I was so wrong on Gibson - I thought he'd be like an 11th man type.

Same here. I was really disappointed they picked him instead of Dejuan Blair. He was 23! when they drafted him, so a lot of people don't realize that he's as old as he is now. He's a physical player and he's had a lot of off and on nagging injuries, so I hope the extension isn't too long or too untradeable - and I really have no idea what it's going to look like, perhaps like Baby's 4yr/$26mil?

How much attention is their hard capping themselves getting in the local press? I'd think that'd mitigate the tax willingness stuff quite a bit.

I can't say I've seen/heard it talked about at all besides the blogs (maybe a KC Johnson tweet or two). The Bulls keep talking about flexibility, and they sold not matching on Asik as maintaining that flexibility. I assume it'll have to come out when the Bulls break camp with only 13 players (one of which is the injured Rose). A lot of people seem to take Jerry/Pax/Gar's words at face value though. Also, everyone's so distracted because they got Hinrich back.
   16. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4250973)
But bottom line, he runs the Bulls like a business and the Sox like his passion.

He admitted as much when I had a chance to meet him this summer.
   17. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4250975)
I meant to ask you, Moses, what you'd thought they'll give him. I'd take the over on 4/26 - but I don't have a good feel for it either. I share your concerns ... but 6.5/yr is sure a good deal based on his current level of production.

Hinrich. I'm not sure if I should console you or laugh. At least he's likeable, a legitimately good defender, and can complement with some of your less pass oriented lead guard options. Weird cognitive disannonce w/ that guy's career.

***

You met him, NJ?
   18. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 02, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4250985)
You met him, NJ?

Not one on one, it was in a group setting. Walked away liking/respecting him more than I thought I would. Of course, if I were a Bulls fan I'd probably feel differently.
   19. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 02, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4251297)
He admitted as much when I had a chance to meet him this summer.

And that's his choice, so I don't begrudge him that. Obviously, as a fan of the Bulls and not the Sox (like the majority of Chicagoans), it's annoying. I just don't think he cares if the Bulls win again. He wants to keep the money flowing, and if they win, it'll be in spite of him.

I meant to ask you, Moses, what you'd thought they'll give him. I'd take the over on 4/26 - but I don't have a good feel for it either. I share your concerns ... but 6.5/yr is sure a good deal based on his current level of production.

Could be. Baby has the better offensive numbers, which seem to carry more weight in these types of negotiations; Baby also has the bigger name recognition/perception of value (or did, prior to signing the deal). I'd obviously love that deal, and think that's going to be the comp the Bulls try to look at. Gibson might point more towards what Ryan Anderson got (4yr, $36mil) - but even there, he was a starter and Taj isn't. He probably falls somewhere in the middle of those deals.

Hinrich. I'm not sure if I should console you or laugh. At least he's likeable, a legitimately good defender, and can complement with some of your less pass oriented lead guard options. Weird cognitive disannonce w/ that guy's career.

He's a combo guard that can't shoot or finish. So he's atypical in that regard. I think I'll like him more in the Thibs system than the VDN one (3 guards with him covering the SFs). I'm not going to be happy if he's the starting SG once Rose comes back/next season when Rip is gone. If he played anywhere but Chicago, he'd probably be rated appropriately. But almost from day 1, the Bulls promoted him as a Bulls fan growing up who loved playing in Chicago. Also didn't hurt he followed immediately after Jay Williams' accident.
   20. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 02, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4251310)
Also, this.
   21. steagles Posted: October 02, 2012 at 07:21 PM (#4251683)
   22. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4252604)
Ummmm...is it just me or does this seem really harsh:
Any player who flops during a regular-season game will be subject to a series of penalties, beginning with a warning for first-time violators. After the warning, players will be fined in increments of $5,000 for each additional flop over the course of the season. The fines increase to $30,000 for a fifth offense.
   23. JuanGone..except1game Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4252628)
Ummmm...is it just me or does this seem really harsh:

Any player who flops during a regular-season game will be subject to a series of penalties, beginning with a warning for first-time violators. After the warning, players will be fined in increments of $5,000 for each additional flop over the course of the season. The fines increase to $30,000 for a fifth offense.


That is extremely harsh. I hope Shane Battier has been saving money or he's going to be on 30 for 30: Broke 2 under this policy.
   24. andrewberg Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4252654)
Those penalties might wash JJ Barea out of the league.
   25. rr Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4252674)
That is extremely harsh.

I am biased about it due to my Abbott issues, but yes, I think the whole thing is overdone. ISTM that the league should just give the refs some training on not calling it, as opposed to fining guys for doing it. It's not like, say, elbowing a guy in the head.
   26. andrewberg Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4252682)
It's not like, say, elbowing a guy in the head.


Or stepping on Luis Scola's face, which I still maintain should not be a penalty at all.
   27. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4252733)
Any player who flops during a regular-season game will be subject to a series of penalties, beginning with a warning for first-time violators. After the warning, players will be fined in increments of $5,000 for each additional flop over the course of the season. The fines increase to $30,000 for a fifth offense.


The tricky thing here, granting that on the surface it seems harsh, is what defines a flop that is worthy of being recognized under this system. I'd have to think it would be only the most egregious ones. Seems like it would be pretty subjective, though. Not that I have any better idea, mind you. I just can't imagine Harden/Ginobili/Barea/fill-in-the-blank actually having to pay $100k plus in fines next year, because those guys (and others) would if they fined literally every flop.

I do like that it's after the fact rather than something called on the floor, because I'd imagine a lot of these calls would be much more difficult to make on the fly (the "let's train the refs better" angle) vs. being able to slow them down and review them carefully.
   28. smileyy Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4252774)
So that flopping stuff is the league saying "We can't accurately call our own game as it happens", right? Does that...bother anyone?

Are we going to have fines for the "rip move" too?
   29. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4252788)
So that flopping stuff is the league saying "We can't accurately call our own game as it happens", right? Does that...bother anyone?

In this particular case, it doesn't bother me so much. It's not as though this is something they used to call on the floor as a foul. But, no, given the speed, level of athleticism, and amount of contact there is on any given play, no it doesn't bother me - it's impossible to get every call right, much less the ones that are judgment calls (like most flops).

The "rip move" is something that is always obvious when it happens. Flops, IMO, are not. The rip move is also not the target of ire for teams, fans, and media alike in massive numbers. Sure, no one likes it, other than the players who execute it successfully, but it's (rightfully, IMO) not viewed as an "epidemic" like flopping is.
   30. smileyy Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4252831)
I guess I'm not seeing how this isn't addressed by "Call fewer charges" -- does that give too much advantage to the LeBron/Wade pinball-players in the league?
   31. steagles Posted: October 03, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4252996)
I guess I'm not seeing how this isn't addressed by "Call fewer charges" -- does that give too much advantage to the LeBron/Wade pinball-players in the league?
i liked the idea of just getting rid of charges altogether. then, there's absolutely no subjectivity. if there's contact on a drive to the basket, it's either a blocking violation or nothing.

and as an added bonus, in addition to eliminating the subjectivity of the call itself, by removing the incentive for defenders to induce contact, you also make the game safer, for both the defensive and the offensive player.
   32. Quaker Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4253079)
Edit: Batum & Wright for players A & B?
   33. Booey Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4253080)
i liked the idea of just getting rid of charges altogether. then, there's absolutely no subjectivity. if there's contact on a drive to the basket, it's either a blocking violation or nothing.

That's pretty much my view too. I've always compared charges to HBP's in baseball - they should only happen due to recklessness on the part of the pitcher/driving player. It should NOT be a legitimate play by the hitter/defender to try and induce a HBP/charge by deliberately getting in the way of the pitch/driver. Baseball solves this problem (in theory) with the rule stating that the HBP won't be recognized if the batter doesn't make an attempt to get out of the way (though it's rarely called). IMO, the NBA should make a similar rule that no charges will be called if the defender doesn't make an attempt on the ball. They'd all either be no-calls or blocking fouls, depending on the severity.

Simply jumping in front of a driving player and falling down isn't a legitimate defensive play IMO and should never be rewarded with a call.

   34. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4253090)
This should go well:

The National Basketball Players Association said Wednesday it will file a grievance and unfair labor practices charge against the NBA over new disciplinary guidelines aimed at curtailing flopping.

"The NBA is not permitted to unilaterally impose new economic discipline against the players without first bargaining with the union," executive director Billy Hunter said in a statement.

Hunter called the new rules "without precedent in our sport or any other sport," and characterized the penalties as "a vague and arbitrary overreaction and overreach by the commissioner's office."
   35. Booey Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4253104)
Kobe, from the link above:

Shameless flopping is just a chump move.


Amen, Mamba.
   36. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4253121)
it's impossible to get every call right, much less the ones that are judgment calls (like most flops).


Not just that, but a lot of what makes flops so obvious (and allows the HoopIdea crowd to bang their drums and gnash their teeth) is slow-motion replays. I would much rather the NBA institute an after-the-fact punishment for flops than have video replay after fouls that might be flops or anything stupid like that. Word has it the NBPA will be filing a grievance, though, so this might yet not happen, at least in the current form.

Edit: Turns out I hadn't refreshed in a while. A coke to Moses re: the NBPA.
   37. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 04, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4253767)
Hunter called the new rules "without precedent in our sport or any other sport," and characterized the penalties as "a vague and arbitrary overreaction and overreach by the commissioner's office."

While I am totally on the union's side here and hope this particular plans fails, I think what the NFL does with fines for late hits - especially those that aren't flagged during the game - is probably a close-ish precedent. Obviously though, there's at least the charade of player safety to back up the NFL that doesn't exist in this flopping scenario.
   38. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 04, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4253773)
A was Chase Budinger.
Would not have linked those two together.
   39. JJ1986 Posted: October 04, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4253777)
I agree that it's almost impossible to correctly call charge/block, but refs should not be letting flops alter their judgment. The call needs to be made based upon first contact or the first contact that the official sees. If you haven't made up your mind until the defensive player falls over, then you clearly didn't see enough to make any call.
   40. andrewberg Posted: October 04, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4253928)
A was Chase Budinger.
Would not have linked those two together.


Well, there's one really obvious difference that would prevent anyone from associating them naturally. Wright is left handed.

Actually, they are fairly similar players. I hope Budinger has the season Wright had 2 years ago where he absolutely went nuts from three.

---

The NBPA might have a point that there needs to be a more accurate and predicable way to review for flops. The concern would be that if there aren't clear standards laid out, the commish could target players he doesn't like and claim they are flopping. Even if that doesn't happen, if the system would allow it to happen, it probably needs to be tightened up.
   41. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 04, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4254310)
Heck, Budinger hit 40% from that range last year - taking them about as often as Wright did that season (in less minutes per game, mind you). That said, Chase was unhappy with how McHale used him - wants to drive more.
   42. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 04, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4254336)
If I had the hops Budinger has, I'd want to drive more, too.
   43. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 04, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4254352)
I don't know if anyone posted this for the other day, but
"I got a question earlier about whose team this is," Kobe Bryant said. "It's my team."
So awesome. As Mr. Tony put it on PTI, you gotta love the rampant egomania that goes with that statement.
   44. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 04, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4254711)
Just saw a neat adidas Rose commercial (#thereturn) -- love this campaign, really well done, and I really really hope D. Rose gets back to 100%. Such a great, relatable kid and such a joy to watch.

Less than a month till the season starts!
   45. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 05, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4255228)
Just saw a neat adidas Rose commercial (#thereturn) -- love this campaign, really well done, and I really really hope D. Rose gets back to 100%. Such a great, relatable kid and such a joy to watch.

*Throws up*
   46. rr Posted: October 05, 2012 at 09:58 PM (#4256169)
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) -- NFL quarterback Peyton Manning is supporting wife Ashley's move to join the group of minority owners being assembled by prospective owner Robert J. Pera, and a person familiar with the deal says former NBA player Penny Hardaway also will be part of the group.

Manning and Hardaway join a minority group that includes singer and actor Justin Timberlake and a couple of Memphis businessmen, the person told The Associated Press on Thursday on condition of anonymity because Pera's purchase of the Grizzlies is pending approval by the NBA.



Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/football/nfl/10/04/peyton-manning-grizzlies.ap/index.html#ixzz28TotjJDH

Zach Lowe wrote his farewell column at SI.com.

By the way, in case anyone asks, this is still my thread.
   47. steagles Posted: October 05, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4256198)
this was from the previous thread:

Darko was very, very physically large, and rebounded and passed well. He'll be among the better back-up bigs in the league; no more, but a big, big upgrade over injured Stiemsma and Ryan ####### Hollins. Fab Melo had some highlight blocks and some strong rebounds, but was a net negative. Lots of talent and nowhere near ready.


oh, i absolutely cannot wait until game 7 of this year's eastern conference finals comes down to the matchup of darko milicic vs. kwame brown.
   48. steagles Posted: October 05, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4256212)
and for another installment of "Terrible writing on 76ers blogs", today, we visit libertyballers:

I imagine that professional athletes don't need to apply for positions. Like, I didn't see the Philadelphia Eagles posting a job for a center on CareerBuilder after Jason Kelce went down with an injury. But I suppose that is one of the perks - avoiding résumé updates and cover letters - of being in the top .0000001% of the most athletically-gifted people on the planet.

But what if athletes did have to write cover letters?

Dear Mr. Thorn/Mr. Collins/Mr. DiLeo/Summer Intern:

Webster Dictionary defines ‘Back-up Point Guard' as "a player in basketball, usually smaller in stature, who doesn't start the game." And it is with that clear definition of this role in mind that I express my interest in the Sixers Back-up Point Guard Position as advertised on LinkedIn and Craigslist.com (Posting ID 3325672168).

   49. tshipman Posted: October 05, 2012 at 11:29 PM (#4256326)
DK, I'm sorry I missed your response. The thread's been in and out of Hot Topics and I don't get on the site very much during the week.

I'm surprised about Budinger. Wright is a weird guy in how many 3pers he takes. If Jimmer were 6-7, he'd basically be Dorell Wright. I'm quite curious to see what happens to him on the Wolves. Does he play 30+ minutes a night? He might be exposed, he might thrive.

Minnesota is the weirdest team in the Association. I think they have more variance in my personal estimation of them than any other team. I could see anything from 20 wins (Love injury) to 45 wins.

   50. kpelton Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4256777)
For DK, the SCHOENE projection sheet is now on sale:
http://basketballprospectus.com/products/schoene2012/
   51. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4256782)
Bought it 10 min ago (if shows up in my available download list soon, I can successfully put off cleaning out my garage for a skotch longer).
   52. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4256791)
The Wolves are fascinating.

As for Budinger, I'm curious how much two he'll play.
   53. JuanGone..except1game Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4256797)
Minnesota is the weirdest team in the Association. I think they have more variance in my personal estimation of them than any other team. I could see anything from 20 wins (Love injury) to 45 wins.


I mean they have one of the weirdest GM's in the Association, what would you expect. When you combine Kahn's aggressive hit or miss style with a willingness to to overweight certain positions this is what you get. I still don't think that Minny is a playoff team, but they should be exciting.

The news that DHo is practicing is a great one for the Lakers. I don't think anyone was thinking that he would be ready for the first quarter of the year.
   54. rr Posted: October 06, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4256816)
I still don't think that Minny is a playoff team, but they should be exciting.


Perhaps, but the stathead consensus seems to be otherwise. An ESPN Roundtable question was "Which lottery team is most likely to make the playoffs" and all five guys tabbed Minnesota in the West, and as I noted, NBAPET at Baskpro has them winning 51 games and finishing 4th (with Rubio missing 30-40 games built into the projection).

I think the assumption is that the following will make post-season:

SA, OKC, LAL, DEN, LAC

And that MEM probably will.

And the following teams are unlikely or very unlikely to make post-season:

PHX, HOU, NO, GS, SAC, POR

So, that leaves Dallas, Utah, and Minnesota for two spots. In that scenario, I can see people liking Minnesota's chances. I will need to study the rosters etc. after my BaskPro book shows up, so I am not saying that I agree with this, but I think that is where it's coming from. My own skepticism about Minnesota revolves about 80% around Roy and about 20% around Rubio. I think Rubio will get back to where he was, and I hope he does, but I think it may take until 2014. And I am very skeptical that Roy will simply be back and able to play 25-28 minutes a game at a high level. Yes, I know that Kahn and Co have access to a lot of information that I don't, but I find the Roy-is-back scenario very counter-intuitive.
   55. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 06, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4256833)
i liked the idea of just getting rid of charges altogether. then, there's absolutely no subjectivity. if there's contact on a drive to the basket, it's either a blocking violation or nothing.


Oh, goodness no. There's too much basket-driving as it is. I'd even prefer declaring all movement inside the 3 point arc by a player with the ball to be an automatic traveling violation to that. (Not that I am advocating that, it's just that removing charges is so bad that it would be better).
   56. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 06, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4257407)
It would really help if Shved is ready to contribute on day one for the T-Wolves and is willing to guard people.
   57. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 07, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4258624)
Another bit of stat trivia: in the SCHOENE projections, what rookie/draftee has the highest projected points per 40 minutes? Hint-ish: I wouldn't've come up with it in 20 guesses.
(Highest REB/40 - T.Robinson, AST/40 - K.Marshall, ST:/40 - D.Waiters, BLK/40 - A.Davis ... all the folks you'd guess they'd be.)
   58. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 07, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4258628)
Anybody clued into what NOH is going to do with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson? Looks like both may get some time at the three - which is a little weird.
They should just use Davis as an undersized five, right?
   59. steagles Posted: October 07, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4258709)
Anybody clued into what NOH is going to do with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson? Looks like both may get some time at the three - which is a little weird.
They should just use Davis as an undersized five, right?
but if they did that, they might not be able to find enough minutes for solomon alabi. i mean, you've gotta have your priorities.
   60. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4258847)
Lakers not quite in mid-season form.
   61. akrasian Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4258903)
Lakers not quite in mid-season form.

Their backups - whom everybody expects to be terrible - couldn't hold a lead without help from the starters. I am almost shocked.
   62. kpelton Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4258907)
RE: 57, I wouldn't have guessed that in 20 tries either. The crazier thing is the same team has two of the top three. In terms of raw translations, without factoring in team context, they were 1-2.
   63. steagles Posted: October 08, 2012 at 07:56 AM (#4258944)
the sixers' training camp is just about wound down now, and while i haven't really kept up with everything that's gone on, this article seems to be fairly promising:

Thaddeus Young leading a two-on-one fastbreak, carrying his extra 21 pounds of muscle, taking a couple of dribbles and leaving his feet for a monstrous slam

Evan Turner's forays into the lane now all seem to end with his bigger, 6-7 frame controllably going to the rim and the ball leaving his hands just inches from the basket - different from last season when most of his drives included some kind of dipsy-do. Now, they are stop-me-if-you-can drives.

When Jrue Holiday lost his defender the other day and drove to the left of the basket, taking two strong dribbles on the baseline, he didn't slow down, even though Kwame Brown and other bigs were barreling down the lane to stop him. Instead, Holiday rose with both hands on the ball and threw down a two-handed dunk that no one was quick enough to stop.



there's some interesting things going on here. firstly, last year's frontcourt consisted of a 32 year old elton brand, a 215 lb. thaddeus yonug, two rookies the coach didn't trust -- vucevic and allen -- and half a season of spencer hawes.

this year, they're starting the season with one of the 3 best centers in the world -- someone may quibble with this, but i think the only other guys who *could* be in that conversation are tyson chandler and dwight howard -- a 25 year old andrew bynum, a 6'11, 290 lb kwame brown, a bulked up thaddeus young, a sophomore forward in lavoy allen who made a name for himself last postseason by bullying kevin garnett, and an apparently healthy spencer hawes. there isn't really anyone in the eastern conference who can match that kind of size and strength, not to mention the youth -- bynum is 25, hawes and young are 24, and allen is 23.


other interesting things of note:
the aggressiveness of holiday and turner is in pretty stark contrast to their previous performance as sixers. if that translates to games, this could be a very potent offense -- if you think about the pieces they now have, they have a true back-to-the-basket post scorer in bynum, they have multiple other forwards who can hit mid-range jumpshots in allen, hawes, and thaddeus young -- who is also a threat to score off the dribble -- and they have nick young, dorrell wright, and jason richardson who are all threats from beyond the arc. if you add holiday and turner getting points by attacking the basket, that's basically everything you need to be a top 10 offense.


and then on defense, the loss of iguodala is gonna be really tough, but they could give up 5 more PPG and still be in the top 10 in scoring defense.


one more note:
maalik wayns seems to be opening some eyes with his play in camp. apparently, he is extremely quick and capable of beating anyone off the dribble. the only issue is that, well, A) he's small, B) he's a poor finisher at the rim, C) he turns the ball over, and D) he can't shoot. at all. other than that, he seems like a good find. and in fairness, 3 of those things were also said about kyle lowry when he came out of villanova.


anyway, when the season starts, the sixers are expected to keep 13 bodies -- bynum, hawes, allen, brown, young, and moultrie up front, richardson, wright, young, and turner on the wings, and holiday, ivey, and wayns at the point. it's kind of a small quibble, but i'd like to see the sixers add a 3-D type guy on the wing prior to the season. i don't necessarily think the guy would be a meaningful addition, but i'm not sure that i trust richardson, young, and turner on the wing against a guy who can score.
   64. JJ1986 Posted: October 08, 2012 at 08:04 AM (#4258946)
Another bit of stat trivia: in the SCHOENE projections, what rookie/draftee has the highest projected points per 40 minutes? Hint-ish: I wouldn't've come up with it in 20 guesses.
(Highest REB/40 - T.Robinson, AST/40 - K.Marshall, ST:/40 - D.Waiters, BLK/40 - A.Davis ... all the folks you'd guess they'd be.)


Trying to guess someone who would not be guessed - Will Barton?
   65. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 08, 2012 at 09:50 AM (#4258978)
Nope - but you had the right round.
Given that it's non-intuitive, I'll blurt it out - Mike Scott, the pf from UVA. (Jenkins, as Pelton notes, also projected to score a relatively high number of points / 40 for a rookie). FWIW, I dislike both picks.

3D wing for Philly - you never know, Wright could turn the corner defensively - he has the tools and has said that he wants to focus on that this year.

Alabi - heh. Let's see what they do when the game count.
   66. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:07 AM (#4258988)
35-0 run, huh? Lookin' good, Laker reserves!
   67. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4258992)
3D wing for Philly

Help a lurker, 3D wing?
   68. JJ1986 Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4259001)
Help a lurker, 3D wing?


3-point shooter and (man) defender. I usually think Jared Dudley as an example.
   69. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4259007)
JJ, thanks. Sounds like a useful player. :)
   70. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4259009)
35-0 run, huh? Lookin' good, Laker reserves!


Trash talk based on the first preseason game; this is a new one on me.

The more significant news to come out of the game may be that Howard is now saying he will miss the preseason--whereas previously he was saying he would play in the last couple of games.

Hollinger said a couple of weeks ago that the Laker bench would be "terrible." At present, the top 5 reserves will be:

1-Blake
2-Meeks
3-Ebanks
4-Jamison
5-JHill

We will see how Brown uses them.



   71. JJ1986 Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:40 AM (#4259012)
JJ, thanks. Sounds like a useful player. :)


It also implies that the guy doesn't create his own shot and usually has a mediocre-at-best inside game.
   72. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4259025)
It also implies that the guy doesn't create his own shot and usually has a mediocre-at-best inside game.

So I was halfway to being a 3D player!
   73. kpelton Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4259041)
I'm assuming all five Laker reserves were out there together during the run? So while it's obviously not a good sign, that's never something you're going to see during the regular season.
   74. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4259062)
Didn't see it, but apparently parts of it involved guys who won't make the roster. Blake is hurt right now; Nash, Bryant, Gasol, and MP didn't even come out of the locker room in the second half.

kpelton is obviously right in saying that the Lakers will not use a "second unit"--my guess is that at least one of the big four will be out there at all times until games are decided. If I were looking for a takeaway, I might point the finger at Mike Brown. First preseason game with Reeves Nelson on the floor or no, a 35-0 run is unusual, and GS was using reserves as well.

The Time Warner thing is a big deal in LakerLand right now; a lot of people who want to see them don't have legal access to the games.
   75. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4259067)
Hollinger tweet suggested that four were for most of it - Hill, Meeks, Jamison, and Duhon.
Sounds reasonable, robin.
   76. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4259075)
Hill played 20:13, which was the highest total of anyone on the roster. Not sure how much he played in the 3rd--if Hollinger actually saw the game, then I will take his word for it.
   77. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4259081)
This Hollinger Tweet sort of sums up why I ditched Insider for BaskPro:

johnhollinger John Hollinger
Lakers fans Twitter-bombed me for saying the bench was an issue. Um, did that THIRTY-FIVE TO ZERO run last night change any minds?


This thing with Hollinger/Abbott and Co vs. the Laker (and other big-market fans) fans got old for me last year.
   78. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4259092)
a 35-0 run is unusual

Yeah, I know it's not really meaningful or instructive pointing things out from the first preseason game. Still, 35-0 is just nuts in any context - and besides, I'm probably not going to get many chances to tweak Lakers fans this season - have to take them as I can get them.
   79. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4259105)
Yeah, I know it's not really meaningful or instructive pointing things out from the first preseason game.


Take it up with Hollinger.
   80. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4259114)
Take it up with Hollinger.

What if you got twitter bombed by fans all the time? Your inbox was full of vitriol, the vast majority of it simply because you pointed out that one team's bench might not be so great this year. If that were me, and last night happened, I would send out a tweet about it too. I certainly wouldn't lump him (JH) in with the whole Abbott/Kobe dynamic, which even I'll admit can get a little weird.
   81. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4259118)
Heck, I had to mention it here, and all I had to read was a series of "Lakers pick and roll - greatest NBA offense ever, or greatest offense in any team sport ever" arguments this past summer.

And it's not like I'm biased or anything. ;)
   82. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4259123)
By the way, did you hear Jeff Green is going to switch from uniform #8 to #42 this year?
   83. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4259132)

What if you got twitter bombed by fans all the time?


If I were a national columnist for ESPN, I would probably welcome it. It means people are reading and listening, and I am getting page hits.


Your inbox was full of vitriol and ever so much of it came from one source, for the sole reason that you pointed out that one team's bench might not be so great this year.


Hollinger drifted more and more towards AbbottTown last year in how he writes about the Lakers and Bryant, so that is part of it, and in addition to that, this is an old story with him. He says wiseass #### about a team or its star when he is analyzing things, and then focuses on the dumbest, most reactive part of the fanbase when they of course react--he has done it with the Knicks, the Mavs, the Bulls, and of course the Lakers. My guess is the Nets fans will be next. He could have said, "There are some major questions with the Lakers bench, although Meeks and Jamison may help" and that would have reduced the blowback. And, of course, he could just have ignored the blowback entirely. Instead, he chose to make a smartass Tweet taunting Lakers fans based on a preseason game--which will lead to another round of Twitterbombs.

   84. steagles Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4259144)
Nope - but you had the right round.
Given that it's non-intuitive, I'll blurt it out - Mike Scott, the pf from UVA. (Jenkins, as Pelton notes, also projected to score a relatively high number of points / 40 for a rookie). FWIW, I dislike both picks.
if anyone was paying attention prior to the draft, scott was my guy. just a few highlights from draft-expresses situation statistics post:

-Mike Scott's 1.069 PPP ranks third best in the group, and he does so on a slightly above average 15.9 possessions per game. Scott posts above average efficiency marks nearly across the board, and stands out especially with his third-best 1.055 PPP on post-ups, while doing so on a second-best 5.7 possessions per game. Scott's 1.465 PPP on offensive rebounds also ranks first overall, and for good measure ranks third overall in both jump shot efficiency (1.015 PPS) and finishing around the basket (1.355 PPS).


   85. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4259155)
Instead, he chose to make a smartass Tweet taunting Lakers fans based on a preseason game--which will lead to another round of Twitterbombs.

If I were a national columnist for ESPN, I would probably welcome it. It means people are reading and listening, and I am getting page hits.

One hand washes the other, in this case.



   86. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4259159)
One hand washes the other, in this case.


Sure, and that is why I am not into the "All those dumb Lakers fans are forcing these classy, analytical guys to respond" meme, which you more or less repeated. Like I said, Abbott's email to me was about five times longer than the one I sent to him.

   87. andrewberg Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4259175)
kpelton is obviously right in saying that the Lakers will not use a "second unit"--my guess is that at least one of the big four will be out there at all times until games are decided. If I were looking for a takeaway, I might point the finger at Mike Brown. First preseason game with Reeves Nelson on the floor or no, a 35-0 run is unusual, and GS was using reserves as well.


When they acquired Nash, my first thought was that there would be a lot of either/or lineups with him and Kobe. I think they will learn to play together well enough, but given what each can do to improve specific types of lineups (Kobe as the heavy usage guy in an otherwise weak scoring lineup, Nash creating open shots and looks at the rim out of PNR), it would make sense to have them optimizing different supporting players. Pairing off one with Howard and one with Gasol for the middle parts of the game would seem to be optimal given their otherwise uninspired supporting cast.


I bought my SCHONE projections. Unfortunately, the league I got roped into is a 20 team league that counts Starts and Technicals (???) so I have a lot of reegineering to do. The raw data is great, and to answer the question from the other day, I will spend a lot of time looking at it for fantasy purposes, and just for fun.
   88. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4259176)
Couple things, Hollinger's team projections are starting to go up, which...holy crap is ESPN going to give him a bonus or something? The amount of content he's produced on a pretty much daily basis since the start of September is incredible. Second thing, when are we going to do our predictions?
   89. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4259184)
Pairing off one with Howard and one with Gasol for the middle parts of the game would seem to be optimal given their otherwise uninspired supporting cast.


Yeah, I said this a few weeks ago, and I think you and some other guys did as well. Kobe/Pau/Hill/Blake/Ebanks and Nash/Howard/Jamison/MWP/Meeks makes sense to me off the top of my head.

Couple of notes on Brown doing a couple of things I am a little down on:

1. He is not committing to Meeks as Bryant's backup yet--I think that would be a mistake.
2. He gave Jamison some time at the 3. I might do that on late posessions on O--spot-up Jamison with the starters and then do the O/D switch. But I wouldn't do it very often. To me, Jamison's role is 15-18 MPG stretch 4, on the floor with Nash and Howard as much as possible.
   90. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4259186)
Couple things, Hollinger's team projections are starting to go up, which...holy crap is ESPN going to give him a bonus or something


Basically, he took what used to be his book and put it online for ESPN. And a lot of it is good stuff; I have several of his books.
   91. tshipman Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4259192)
So, I'm actually a bit surprised at the huge run. The Laker reserves are old, but they shouldn't be completely terrible. In my opinion, that points to something being mismanaged--probably who's initiating the offense, as you don't get that kind of run without a ton of turnovers.

I do think it's a shame that the Laker lineup is a Ferrari, and it's being driven by the guy who normally drives a clown car.
   92. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4259193)
initiating the offense,


Nash was +12 in his brief floor time. I think the danger there lies in Brown overworking Nash and his back going out, which is one reason I agree with berg's "either/or" plan. Brown will feel more secure with both Kobe and Pau out there, so that may reduce the temptation to overplay Nash.
   93. andrewberg Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4259195)
Couple things, Hollinger's team projections are starting to go up, which...holy crap is ESPN going to give him a bonus or something?


I agree. I have been thoroughly impressed with the scope and quality of his production this fall. I do not agree with everything he writes- obviously- but the stuff that makes it into these previews is all very well-reasoned. Big hat tip.
   94. madvillain Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4259200)
I don't know if it's the tannins in my tea, the realization that Steagles' Sixers are probably going to be better than Chicago, or finally realizing the season is here and Rose is still 6 months away -- but I feel a bit under the weather.

Oh well, this thread will be fun again.
   95. rr Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4259204)
Rose

I saw an Adidas "Return" ad. Very slick and clever ad campaign.
   96. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: October 08, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4259209)
Rose

I saw an Adidas "Return" ad. Very slick and clever ad campaign.


NJ just threw up again.

Second thing, when are we going to do our predictions?

Right after we finish our NBA rank...
   97. Booey Posted: October 08, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4259245)
Second thing, when are we going to do our predictions?


Fearless Eastern Conference predictions:


1) Miami: 58-24 and a free ride to the Finals barring any catastrophic injuries.


Everyone else: significantly less than 58 wins and no shot at the Finals.


Fearless.
   98. tshipman Posted: October 08, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4259248)
We should wait until the next page, so we're all on the same page for reference's sake.

Who did the best job in last year's predictions?
   99. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 08, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4259264)
Basically, he took what used to be his book and put it online for ESPN. And a lot of it is good stuff; I have several of his books.

Me too. I remember, years ago, criticizing certain tendencies he has - overvaluing small samples, for example - he's stepped up his game over time and I particularly like his efforts to describe defensive prowess.
   100. Booey Posted: October 08, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4259271)
Flip
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