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Meh. I'm not so sure about this theory. Amar'e's knees were ticking time bombs from the jump. I think it takes a leap to say D'Antoni having him play 36.8 MPG (not completely out of line with his established playing time) is necessarily what lead to this. He was fine that entire season until he hurt his back doing a trick dunk in warmups against the Celtics in the playoffs. Then last year he's fine (Added weight and all) until the bulging disc in the back issue crops. Then the fire extinguisher. Then this year an actual knee problem crops up.
Here are Marc Stein's pre-season power rankings, which look a little nutty (SAS #2? OKC #5?).
Interesting. Not saying he was right or wrong, but I do wonder if OKC could have gotten a better deal.
I can't speak for them, but I have no problem predicting/thinking/assuming he'll be a top 20 guy this year for sure. With more minutes he probably was last year (depending on how you rate his defense, I guess).
The Knicks did play better last year when Melo was at the four (I believe I saw a stat somewhere that the Knicks were outscored with both Melo/Amare on the court last year). Obviously the best solution would have been just to bring Amare off the bench, but we'll see what the deal is whenever he comes back. I'm just not totally sure who they play at the 3; Brewer I guess but you'd like a little more shooting out there.
I didn't realize the season started tonight; I'm pretty pumped now. I wonder if the Knicks-Nets game on Thursday gets postponed.
EAST: MIA BOS PHI IND BKN CHI ATL NYK | MIL TOR CLE DET WAS ORL CHAWEST: LAL OKC SAS DEN LAC MIN MEM UTA | DAL POR GSW NWO HOU SAC PHO
I'm not sure what to make out of the top of the west - you could reorder 1-4 in any number of ways and I'd likely agree. Same for 3-8 in the east - basically, I find my picks kind of useless this year.
MVP: LBJ
MIP: Asik
ROTY: Lillard. Torn b/w he and the superior Davis.
NBA finals: MIA over LAL
I wouldn't think so. Two firsts, a decent rookie prospect, and a good veteran on an expiring is a nice haul. It's more than Orlando got for Howard.
The Howard deal is a terrible comp for any trade, it was that bad. If nothing else, maybe they could have gotten more from Houston if they had to bid against other teams. In his article on the deal, Lowe speculates other teams were involved, but doesn't get into specifics (outside of showing how GS's previous mistakes likely kept them out of the running).
EAST
1. Miami
2. Boston
3. Indiana
4. Brooklyn
5. Atlanta
6. Philadelphia
7. Chicago
8. Toronto
MIA, BOS, IND and ATL in 1st round
MIA and BOS
MIA
WEST
1. LAL
2. DEN
3. OKC
4. LAC
5. SAS
6. MEM
7. MIN
8. UTA
LAL, DEN, OKC and SAS
LAL and OKC
LAL
Heat over Lakers in 5
Step 1: Get a ring.
Step 2: Win back a starting job.
Step 3: Buy all the food? Triumphant return to the Knicks? China?
I think the Harden deal may open the door for another team to move in there--San Antonio and Denver being the most likely candidates.
I like what Minnesota has done, but I am not seeing them as a 55-win team now like some projection systems are. I do think they will make the playoffs.
As to the deal, OKC got a nice haul for Harden; I am simply opposed to the trade on principle, since I do not believe that it moves them closer to the championship and probably moves them further away from it short-term.
It is tough to sell 50 wins with Love missing time and the persistent uncertainty about Rubio and Roy. Games that Love misses don't become automatic L's, and the slate is surprisingly easy, but it's not like they're going to go 12-3 without him.
Jalen Rose guaranteed on his podcast this week that Love would not finish his contract in Minnesota. I bawled instantly.
On Simmons' over/under podcast, they had the biggest difference between the stathead projection systems and his picks on Minnesota. I think Simmons said he expected something like 38-39 wins, IIRC, and made fun of ESPN the Magazine picking them to finish as the 4 seed. FWTW (not much).
Yeah, I listened to that. He did not give much explanation for his opinion. I know that we're talking about a big leap, but the team that was on pace for so few wins last year was largely made up of bench players who are no longer there. They were solid with their core relatively healthy early in the year, and they have made big improvements to that group (even though that is just going from morbidly hilariously bad to decent at some positions).
They'd better get really good, really fast then...
I haven't looked at it, but I think there will be very few automatic Ws in the West. NO has Davis, Gordon and Anderson now; HOU just added Harden, although according to BASKPro, they still project as the worst team (26 wins as opposed to 21). The other teams people have in the lottery are not bereft of talent.
IMO the NBA is entering a period in which we will see very few 60-win teams--more parity.
This may be crazy, but I think Cleveland has a shot at the playoffs.
Lin and Asik are media/stathead and League Pass darlings and can do some things very, very well, but they both have limitations. HOU has a lot of young forwards who look OK, but no one who looks like a true foundational player.
Also, someone has to be the worst team. SAC has Cousins and Evans, POR has Aldridge. GS has Curry and Bogut. NO should be better and may be much better. BaskPro has PHX at 28-54, so HOU might project better than they will in some systems.
It's not that crazy. Some marginally terrible team like Cleveland, the Wiz, or Toronto is going to either come very close to the 8 seed or actually make the 8 seed.
Probably has a lot to do with how the projection systems handle rookies. FWIW, Hollinger has them at 37 wins post-Harden.
I think Sacramento is the leader so far for worst team in the west, mostly out of mismatches with their talented players and overall dysfunction. You could convince me that Phoenix (no defense, relying on Beasley) or Portland (they could fall off of a cliff if Aldridge gets hurt, probably the worst depth north of LA) has a shot to displace them. Among others, the Wolves play Sacto twice, Toronto, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Dirk-less Dallas, and Orlando in the first month.
They're pretty bad after Irving. I guess a reasonable person could be way more optimistic about Thompson and Waiters than I am, but I don't think they're very close to .500.
Sure -- but 21 _projected_ wins pre-Harden trade is epically bad -- projections rightfully regress to the mean. And if they are stathead darlings, well, aren't the statheads the ones making the projections? I'm not saying they should be projected into the playoffs or anything but how could this team with some legitimately good players and plenty of upside be projected for only 21 wins? That seems crazy to me.
I think I am mostly basing this on: a surprisingly decent, pretty young team with a guy with superstar potential. I do have a soft spot for Thompson.
The issue with Houston is: who's an average or better NBA player on this team besides Harden and probably Asik (who can't score) / Lin (unproven / turnover prone / not a good defender)? Maybe Parsons? Then a lot of maybes and nos.
*IF* everything breaks right for Minnesota, man, that's an interesting team. Pekovic/Love/Kirilenko/Roy/Rubio - backed up by Stiemsma/Williams/Budinger/Shved/Ridnour and Barea and Cunningham. And with a good coach in Adelman.
So... I guess they're due for more injuries.
Statheads like them, particularly Asik--but that doesn't mean that they are foundational players. Prior to the Harden deal, those two guys were probably Houston's two best players and as DK points out again, they both have serious limitations. It is sort of as if you had Ben Wallace and the 12th-15th or so best PG as your two best guys--those guys are pretty good, but if your team is those two and a bunch of young guys and rookies in a tough conference, you are going to lose a lot. Maybe not 61 games, but a lot. That's why Morey wanted Harden.
Another way to look at it: prior to the Harden deal, which team in the West was demonstrably worse than Houston? BaskPro--and they like Morey and thought getting Harden was smart--still has them as the worst team in the West.
I think we should do a better job separating what (I assume are) unbiased projection systems say/show and what the analysts who employ/rely on those systems say.
But I would definitely say encouragement about the Rockets' direction is more about 2-3 years down the road than this year.
They have former #2 and #4 overall picks in the draft.
Don't worry, I can tell you from experience that when you finally realize that your franchise player isn't going to push you over the top and you mercy trade him to a contender for 25 cents on the dollar, the rebuilding project only takes about 6 years to start showing any progress.
Lawson- seems like a good deal for both sides, maybe slightly favoring the team. They're paying him a little more than what the market for an almost AS PG is, but that premium can be seen as a payment toward his possible further development. If he gets much better at all, he could look like a very good deal. It seems like teams often pay more of a premium for potential, although that may not be true at PG as much as it is with big men.
For your sake and for the sake of all other long suffering Wolves fans, I hope you're talking about Garnett and not predicting Love's future.
Rondo- 5 years, $55m. Generally seen as a good deal. New CBA makes Lawson's shorter. $1m per year more likely offset by longer commitment.
Deron Williams- 5 years, $98m. Higher profile, superior reputation, but probably not wildly better than Lawson over next 4 years at twice the price.
Rose- 5 years, $94m. Clearly superior player when healthy.
Stuckey- 3 years, $25.5m. Inferior player, not a bad deal.
Lin- 3 years, $25m. If he stays healthy, that is probably a bargain.
G. Hill- 5 years, $40m. Cheaper AAV than Lawson, but Lawson is already better and healthier with chance to improve. Probably used as a comp in negotiations.
Paul- 4 years, $63m. Older contract (in last year). Not a very comparable player.
Conley- 5 years, $40m. Same deal as Hill, probably a slightly better player. I'd prefer Lawson, but Conley's D makes it close.
Westbrook- 5 years, $79m. Same evaluation as Rose. Even a better deal.
Jameer Nelson- 3 years, $25m. Stuckey/Lin contract. I'll take Lin again.
Dragic- 4 years, $30m. Still want to see him as starter for full season. Seems like a good contract for team.
Parker- 4 years, $50m. Roughly similar player but without chance to improve at time he signed.
Lowry- 4 years, $23m. Signed before breakout.
I would say Parker is the closest comp and Lawson is slightly cheaper and younger at time of deal.
When those guys say "I think the system may be wrong here" I have done that, and I did in fact note that Pelton did say, in the BaskPro Boston essay, that SCHOENE has been off at times on older teams.
Also, you need to remember WRT Hollinger and Pelton that about 95% of what they write is behind paywalls. Quoting extensively is out of the question. The point of the comment was that it is quite possible to simultaneously
a) Like what Houston is doing.
b) Think they are going to lose a hell of a lot games this year.
Also, I am not sure it is possible to design a totally "unbiased" projection system (this has been a big thing on the politics thread WRT Nate Silver and 538).
To flip out and have heart issues.
The other thing I'd point out in the spirit of this discussion is that I only write half the chapters, and Bradford and I don't always agree about where SCHOENE might be wrong. For example, he seems to buy SCHOENE on the Nuggets a little more than I do.
And also, I hate being on the east coast for sports. West coast games starting at 10 p.m.? Are you serious? TURRIBLE.
Go sizzlers, we goin' sixers
;)
You must be forgetting Mike "Let's just let Lebron go 1 on 5" Brown and Eddie "Forget fast breaks, Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala need to be in a midrange shooting offense" Jordan.
The Lakers are so frustrated that I am wondering when Bynum will show up to clothesline someone.
We're operating in different realities here. I am just hoping for a playoff berth.
Isn't it enough that you have Howard and gasoline? Now you need to take Bujumbura too?
Doesn't appear to be at this point; they just lost to Dallas with Nowitzki out. In the preseason, I pointed out that a lot of internet guys, including Hollinger, were talking about "Kobe needing to adjust" but they didn't talk about Nash, assuming that he would require no adjustment period, etc. Kobe was 11/14 in this game. And, of course, I talked a lot about defense.
So, yes, they need to run more PnR and let Nash be Nash more.
I like the new phone autocorrect STEAGLES, though the question is, why is STEAGLES' phone autocorrecting to words with caps?
Yes and no. Nash isn't always going to be as ball-dominant as he was and his USG will go down, and he needs to do better than 3/9 while Collison goes 8/12 in any case, no matter how dumb Mike Brown may be.
But, yes, like I said, and everybody else said, they need to play more to Nash's strengths, starting by running more PnR and, again, using him with Howard when Bryant and Gasol rest. I said a couple of weeks ago that I had doubts about Nash in the Princeton offense.
I think he's good to have for the Cavs for now. He's not making that much ($8.3mil this year, $9mil next, then an unguaranteed $9.7mil - $4mil guaranteed). I think there's probably monetary reasons for the Cavs to aim for the playoffs (not sure how what their season ticket base/attendance looks like for this year*), and those odds are better with him than with the likely asset they'd get. However, they need to get another star to pair with Irving, and the most likely way is getting lucky in the lottery (and I don't think Thompson or Waiters are going to be stars). But I'm not sure which contender - even loosely using that term - would have the right deal to get him. He'd look good in Brooklyn especially.
*Last night appears it was a sellout, they averaged a hair under 16k/game last season and over 20k/game the first year post-LeBron.
Worst case is probably a first round loss, maybe as the 3 or 4 seed, to a team like the Grizzlies or Clippers (just from a location standpoint, losing to the Clips might be worse). I don't see any way they miss the playoffs, and it's hard to see them falling below the 4 seed.
I'd say no. I think their absolute worst possible scenario is 50 wins and a 2nd round exit (see 2003, 2011, 2012). They just have too much talent in their starting lineup to drop any further than that, IMO.
I'd probably put Minnesota as the team with the largest range of possibilities. I could see them winning 50 if they stay healthy and their gambles (Roy, AK) have something left in the tank. I could also see them LOSING 50 if none of the above happens.
I tried to use some levity to speak to people's perspective but I guess its not working. It's one game. People forget that the Heattles started out 9-7 with people wondering if it would ever work because Lebron and Wade are alpha dogs and their coach sucked, etc., etc. I still think the Lakers need a lot of work, but ONE GAME.
I have no idea where the Celtics are going to end up, either. Garnett going down could leave them short, literally and figuratively. And who the heck is Courtney Lee? Well, he's their new starting 2 guard!
782 - yes
783 - pelton mentioned something i was thinking of in that boston could use another rim protector behind garnett.
now, as for lee - i think he's overrated - but he's hardly an unknown or unrespected commodity.
Uhhhh, Courtney Lee is pretty good.
besides, he can defend all three guard spots.
Golden St, too. Bogut and Curry could play and help them make the playoffs, or they could be picking top 5 again.
He struggles when you match him up with a 4-guard.
This was my thinking. We clearly see the ceiling, but they are an old team with an awful bench and high injury-risk.
Really? You've got a center in his athletic prime (yes, he had surgery, but he seems ok now). You've got a power forward who's played a full season 3 of the last 4 years. A point guard that never misses games. I think high is overselling it. They have injury risk, but not more than most teams.
And the best deal I heard, which is admittedly a longshot rumor, was the rest of their draft (24, 33, 34, which they used to get #17) and Varejao for Golden State's #7. I have to believe there was no way the Cavs would pass up a chance to get the upside of Barnes or Drummond though.
I love many of the Celtics, like KG, because they bring everything to the game. I never feel cheated by their effort. And no I am not a big Celtics fan, but as a fan when I am paying good money I want them to give their all and they do. I want tough defense and everything else effort brings. WOuld I want to be best buds with them? Nope, so if that is what you mean then I guess so.
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