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Shaquille O'Neal 41166 8087 49253
Jason Kidd 44036 4953 48989
Kevin Garnett 41695 3755 45450
Kobe Bryant 37366 7811 45177
he's 4th among active players in total minutes ...
(Coon, for those who aren't familiar, runs the very popular/awesome NBA Salary Cap FAQ site)
That's what the guy meant. Should have checked before posting.
Yes, I'm aware. It still needs a lot of work. The main writer is not a writer, and it shows. Their projections did have the Blackhawks as the top team last year before the season started, so they got something right. They also contribute a few pieces to ESPN now and then.
The blue line is the the line on the ice (technically, under the ice, but you can see through the ice) that is blue. Behind the line is each teams' defensive zone. Offensive players can't pass the blue line before the puck. When people refer to "blue liners" they're talking about defenseman.
songaila is a turd, but brackins has some upside, and moving willie green means more minutes for jodie meeks.
i kinda like jason smith, but 5 years of brackins vs. 1 of smith is kind of a no brainer. if taking on songaila is the cost of doing business, eh, i'm fine with it.
Well, at some point doesn't opponents respect have to come into it? Sure, Carmelo's not as great as everyone says, but if most of the players are saying he's really good and they'd want him on their team, shouldn't we at least consider that he's really really good?
NELLIE HAS BEEN FIRED!!! Is Golden St. going to actually try to win games now?
A guy coming off the bench for the Timberwolves could be part of a "new big three?"
As far as Love and Anthony, not to bag on Love, but I think players, like a lot of people, go in part in on Q rating/public image. Anthony is part of the in crowd--remember the "next generation" SI cover with James, Wade and Anthony from several years back? He is an NCAA and Olympic Champion, has the one name thing going (Kobe, LeBron, Melo), has ties to NY. While he is clearly an excellent player, I think all of these things combine to make him a little overrated--like people have him #5 when he should be #14 or whatever. The same thing happens with Kobe Bryant, at a higher-profile level. I think at the level of the MSM, Bryant is probably the most respected, if not best-liked, player/competitor in the league at this moment, so I think people in the media and some players will put him ahead of James in their minds right now because of last year's playoffs and the massive partly self-inflicted PR hit James just took.
No.
Anybody read/remember from one the BJBAs where he talking about inside v. outside baseball, using a forest as metaphor? Well, players are trees - their vantage point offers them tremendous insight that we don't and sometimes can't have, but it's not ideal to answer every question.
In addition to agreeing with robinred (per usual) in 17635, I think Carmelo also gets points w/ the players for having a very well-rounded game in terms of how he gets shots (post, mid-range, distance, etc...) - he's not necessarily efficient, but he can beat you a LOT of ways.
you know, i liked this talk much more when it was favors coming to philly for iguodala. i'm still holding out hope for that, and doubly so since the sixers were able to pull craig brackins earlier this week.
also, there's this:
The melo news of the morning is that there is some traction to a trade where den gets kirilenko, favors, and two number ones; nj gets melo; Utah gets Diaw; cha gets Harris. Without knowing all the details, I'll guess that cha also gives up a one. That's a good haul for den if you are high on favors (ak47 is another good chip) and nj would get the marketable guy they want while keeping lopez. They need to work out an extension, but I can see why there was some progress.
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I wonder what Sam M. will have to say if Anthony winds up in New Jersey, and if that does occur, I wonder if that perhaps puts Chris Paul there at some point down the line.
Eh, just be glad for the Brackins deal. (I'm not keen on Brackins, but that was still a great trade. Dell Demps - unless Jason Smith is Chris Paul best friend or something, you're off to a rough start.)
Supposedly, Carmelo doesn't want to sign an extension w/ NJ, but that would be kinda crazy, imo (should it get to that point).
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if they can't pluck favors from the nets for iguodala, i'd hope plan B would be to shop iggy to the bombers, and play up the team USA mentor thing for durant and westbrook.
but, as i said earlier in this thread, i'm completely off iguodala's back until december. i don't really like the way he's played the last few years for the sixers, but he was a great role player for team USA, and i'm gonna cut him slack with the sixers because of it.
Come on!
No, seriously: Come on. This is dumb.
Well, it's not going to last. After all the marquee players start getting huge amounts of T's quickly (relatively), it'll slow down. And in a year or two, they'll be back to where they are now.
The Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs are going to get themselves all ejected in the first 10 minutes of the game if the refs hold to this, though.
Anthony still has heart set on the New York Knicks, but a case is being made to him the Nets are a compromise he’ll have to accept to get his $65 million extension and get into the metropolitan N.Y. market.
Boy, Donnie Walsh went a little too far in trying to woo Lebron. They have to be kicking themselves now.
Not to mention - who will the Bulls get to play Center?
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Also, the buzz is that the Anthony-to-Nets thing is getting closer and will actually happen if Anthony agrees to the extension. I'm skeptical. But maybe Prokhorov can convince him that the Newark-Brooklyn route will be better long-term than playing in MSG.
Also, Kevin Ding of the OC Register on Kobe Bryant's finger via BDL:
http://www.ocregister.com/sports/finger-267943-bryant-index.html
I don't know about "crazy", but, yes, I agree they should definitely be the favorites. If Kobe Bryant were 28 and 100% healthy, and Pau Gasol were 26, I might pick the Lakers over the Heat. But they're not and he isn't. My money would be on the Heat.
Well as long as we're on the subject, how does this team look in 2002?
PG Anyone with Two Legs
SG Ray Allen (age 26, 22 ppg, 43% 3FG)
SG Paul Pierce (age 24, 26/7/3, 40% 3FG)
PF Jermaine O'Neal (age 23, 19/11/2.3 blk)
C Shaq (age 29, 27/11/3/2.0 blk, 58% FG, Finals MVP)
Yikes. By the way, those four guys have made a combined $725 million in salary in their careers. Are the 2010-11 Celtics the "richest" team in NBA history?
Obviously, the Heat are the favorites, the Lakers are clearly second, and then there's a small group of teams with a puncher's chance if they catch (or perhaps avoid) some breaks.
It actually sounds like he's backpedalling a bit; Simmons' original reaction to LeBronapalooza was that the Uberheat had no chance to win 50 games this year.
Marc Normandin, a Boston fan who writes for Prospectus, ran a story a few weeks ago on what the current Celtics would have been like in 2001. I linked it here and it would be easy to find on their site.
NJ from our crew here linked a Simmons podcast in which Simmons was talking with Dan LeBatard of the Miami Herald, a few days after LeDecision. In that conversation, Simmons was:
a) a little defensive about his "alpha dog" theory vis-a-vis the Three MiEgos, saying that "no team has ever won with two perimeter alpha dogs." LeBatard dismissed this as bullcrap, and I am with LeBatard on that.
b) saying that the Heat would not be able to get enough other guys on the team (this was before Miller signed and Haslem came back) to win it this year.
In the link I posted above, Simmons says he thinks the Heat are "one mid-level guy away." My own opinion is that they are one mid-level guy away from being able to try for 70 wins. But I think they have enough additional talent on the team right now to win 60-65 and to win the championship.
___________________
"I actually like the whole thing,” said center Andrew Bynum, who revealed he’s unlikely to play until late November while recovering from offseason knee surgery. “I kind of like that a player has that kind of power. A couple of guys can get together and say they want to play together, even guys like that. I think it’s great for the game.”
Lamar Odom sees the Heat juggernaut from a similar perspective, figuring the Miami circus will stoke overall fan interest in basketball this fall.
“I think it’s good for the league,” said Odom, who spent the past two weeks resting after winning a world championship with the U.S. team in Istanbul. “With the new collective bargaining agreement coming up, I think it’ll help. It makes things a little more competitive, which you want. It helps the story line of the season. We don’t want them to be too good, though. We want them to be good enough.”
Bryant had nothing but praise for the Miami superstars’ decision, and he even jumped to the defense of James, his teammate on the U.S. team at the Beijing Olympics.
“I’m just excited for him, because he seems to be happy with his decision,” Bryant said. “My sentiments don’t go beyond that. … All the other stuff, I didn’t like, because everybody was coming down on him."
______________
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AkDQi3lmm9YkN94ijc0w5NO8vLYF?slug=ap-lakersbegin
Why, that's never happened with Andrew Bynum!
1. Heat 66-16
2. Magic 55-27
3. Celtics 51-31
4. Bucks 49-33
5. Bulls 48-34
6. Hawks 46-36
7. Sixers 43-39
8. Knicks 37-45
9. Pacers 34-48
10. Pistons 32-50
11. Bobcats 30-52
12. Wizards 30-52
13. Cavs 29-53
14. Nets 26-56
15. Raptors 22-60
1. Lakers 56-26
2. Blazers 55-27
3. Spurs 54-28
4. Thunder 49-33
5. Mavs 48-34
6. Jazz 47-35
7. Rockets 46-36
8. Nuggets 46-36
9. Hornets 45-37
10. Suns 38-44
11. Grizzlies 36-46
12. Warriors 32-50
13. Kings 28-54
14. Clippers 27-55
15. Wolves 27-55
Quick thoughts: Low on Knicks W total, but agreed on playoff slot. Surprised by the Sixers love and Bobcats hate, but thinking about it...the Bobcats did lose a lot this offseason and had a lot of guys have surprise years last year. Out West, I'm surprised by the Blazers and Spurs placement and I think the Jazz should be higher.
Altogether, these rankings seem to assign static injury risks to a lot of players. The Blazers would probably win more than 55 if Roy and Oden were fully healthy all year. That's absolutely not going to happen; they're probably going to miss enough time that they won't even win 55. Same with the Spurs- it seems like 54 wins reflects something like 85% health from their starting 5, but I don't think that's likely.
TWolves go from 2nd worst record to 3rd worst- is that the progress Kahn promised?
Another odd thing about it: before the playoffs last year, Hollinger, as some may recall, picked Phoenix to win the Western Conference.
Do you really dislike Al Jefferson or did you forget about him?
Forgot actually. I'm still not sure they;re better than Phoenix or Houston.
Let's see if Turk decides to show up first - he's been sleepwalking ever since he signed that contract (FIBA time too).
17669: Cousins may have significant foul problems in year one- Pelton projected some insanely high number there + Dalembert is around.
Otherwise, the Kings are certainly interesting, but their defense is worrysome.
(Perhaps a little background info is of use. I'm doing an econometrics project where I plan to create an equivalency or translation model for hockey -- i.e., .5 goals per game in the AHL should translate to .25 GPG in the NHL. The plan is for this to not be overly complicated, and I'm in search of similar studies done for other sports.)
Apologies for cluttering up the thread.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=hollinger_john&action=login&appRedirect=http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=hollinger_john
link
Scroll down to third entry--it is archived Insider stuff, now free for promotional purposes.
Neil Paine at BaskRef might have one--I'd search their site. Also check out HoopData.
DK or berg might know some stuff about this.
I actually did see a Spanish League formula somewhere, but never bookmarked it / I forget where it was.
The D-League and Eurloeague things are your best bets, though.
The Bobcats just aren't good, and they lost Felton. Felton's not an All-Star by any stretch, but he was one of the top 3 players on that team. I'm not sure there's a franchise in a worse state than the Bobcats right now.
berg touched on this above, but I really like the Kings going forward.
The only thing I worry about with the Kings is the headcase factor. Evans is a solid player, but what if he's just a good numbers on a bad team guy? This season, with Cousins, Landry, Dalembert, and Caspi, he's going to be expected to share the ball more. Can he do that? Can Cousins stay on the court? There's a possibility that this team could be all ballhogs and it could really stall their development.
I'll have to read them and get all the rosters straight before I chime in more, but like andrew said, the one that makes me say "Uhhh..." right now is Phoenix.
Who's going to rebound on that team, though? They were tiny up front before they lost Amare, now they're even smaller.
Amare was their token big guy, but he's a crappy rebounder. His numbers are bad per possession, per minute, and per observation. Losing Amundsun probably hurts them as much as losing Amare in terms of rebounding. Lopez is a very solid offensive rebounder and may get more defensive rebounds with the opportunity. Hill and Richardson aren't great, but they're better than average at the 3 and 4. Frye is better statistically than his skinny frame would indicate. The only real issue is that their starting 4 (if it is Turk) has not rebounded well while playing the 3 in recent years. That might be a real problem, but not a -20 wins problem.
Also, as follow-up on the Suns point: Earl Clark could see more minutes this year, and he was a very solid rebounder at L'ville. Warrick isn't terrible, and Turk, bad as he was in Toronto, saw his D-reb rate tick upwards over the previous few years.
His jersey change to 9 is hilarious.
?
Some kind of context I'm missing?
Field of Schemes seems to think that KC's arena owner has an incentive to NOT have a pro sports team. I don't know if this is true, but is KC really big enough?
SEATTLESEATTLESEATTLESEATTLE
Arena situation unchanged. Not happening.
What about St. Louis? They have the arena the Blues play in.
Stern has pretty much said Key Arena in Seattle is unusable.
St. Louis has never shown any desire to have an NBA franchise. They're pretty clearly a baseball/hockey town with football as a slight diversion til the next Cards or Blues game.
I seem to recall Henry Samueli wanting to bring an NBA team to San Jose pretty badly although I wonder how they would resolve territorial rights with the Warriors (does the NBA have territorial rights like baseball?). And Vegas seems pretty determined to get a team. I'd imagine any team flirting with relocation is going to deal with San Jose, Vegas and KC.
Here ya go.
Okay. I laughed. I can't hate you, Gil.
Some kind of context I'm missing?
I'm assuming he means the slang term for "9" - as in 9 mm - as in a gun.
He also cites expected downturn in defense (with Amar'e better than Warrick and co.) and offense (Amar'e is really good on O in that system) as reasons for their decline.
**********
17676: That's simply awful. Why did Roland put that on his site?
Sac arena: Nobody thought that was going through though, right? Wasn't that always a Hail Mary?
Gilbert: I hadn't picked up on that; funny.
Is this a euphemism for firing Don Nelson?
____
Maybe it's nothing.
As Der-K points out in 17691, Amare's not great shakes, but he's as good as they have on Phoenix.
Is this a euphemism for firing Don Nelson?
Yes, but didn't they finally bring in some size? I'm curious to see what Golden St does this season, and I'm curious to see how fast they try and unload Ellis.
I guess what I was getting at was that Amare didn't do much to get them marginal rebounds. He got rebounds that were there for the taking, and he had long arms, so there were a fair number of those. He never really fought for rebounds that would have gone the other way. That makes me think that a lot of the rebounds he had will just go to someone else on the team by default. If somebody else is standing under the basket not guarding anyone, then he will get Amare's boards. I guess we will get a chance to see if that plays out.
I was kidding before, but the biggest problem the Warriors had was playing with 5 shooting guards on the floor.
That tends to kill your rebounding.
Relevant excerpt:
Chicago's five projected starters hit 56 3-pointers as a team last season....
If everyone matches last year's totals, the Bulls will make only 245 3-pointers this season, which would put them nearly a hundred behind every other team and barely half of the league average. Somehow, the Bulls will have to make up what projects to be a giant 3-point deficit.
He does say that Bogans, Watson, and Korver will help, of course. He has CHI at 48-34.
No kidding. That's almost an absurd projection that tests the limits of coach usage. If he has 4 fouls going into halftime of every game, he's going to have to change his style or not play. Al Jefferson is another big, slow, bulky defender, but he was only prone to fouls when he tried to play defense. It became standard for him to get a second foul in the first quarter then quit trying. I'm not even sure it was a bad idea.
But he won't have 4 fouls going into halftime. By the coaches' book, 2 in the first quarter is an automatic benching, as is picking up your third before the half. He won't get to 435 because no coach will ever allow it. Unless they're adding his T's in, because that's 20+ added right there.
Instead, a few notes on single season PF leaders:
Darryl Dawkins has the top two spots (386 in 29.8 mpg, 384 in 25.8 mpg). The only guy to top 350 in the last quarter century was Shawn Kemp (371, in 30.4 mpg), though Kurt Thomas made runs at it twice. The trend to not let guys play in foul trouble has accelerated in recent years, culminating in the amazing (to me) 'feat' of Dwight Howard becoming the first man in modern NBA history to lead the league in fouls (non-strike season) with less than 300 (287). That's Beamon-esque, in its way.
I agree with Thonus's take on Hollinger's Bulls/Bucks projections. I think the Bulls will win the Central division by a comfortable margin, save a significant injury to Rose (they can handle big injuries to the other positions).
---
Some brief Melo to Bulls thoughts.
Here's a Simmons tweet on the situation:
If true, I'm fully in agreement. I've kinda softened my stance some on the Noah part of the deal (initially, I was completely against it; now, I'm coming around thinking it's dumb to make him untouchable), especially if he's already turned down 5/$57mil and wants at least $70mil. Adding in the 2 picks is just overkill at this point. If NJ really has pulled out (and it can be just as much a negotiation tactic as a stance to wait until during the season), once again the Bulls would just be competing against themselves. There's going to be a ton of pressure on Denver to do something, especially if they struggle at all. Obviously we know the Bulls are keeping Noah no matter what if he signs an extension; so Melo can hold out hope for the Bulls to acquire him.
Apart from any Melo stuff, the Bulls and Nuggets should discuss something here.
I think Chicago will win the division, but not comfortably - I'm somewhere between Hollinger and Thonus. I've harped on it here before, but the lack of outside shooting could be a big problem unless Rose's supposed gains are real.
(Oh - and most of the comments on the Thonus article are stupid.)
The Bulls had JR Smith, they got rid of him before he even played one game. I can't imagine Paxson would just bring him back. (As Der K just posted)
If true, I'm fully in agreement. I've kinda softened my stance some on the Noah part of the deal (initially, I was completely against it; now, I'm coming around thinking it's dumb to make him untouchable), especially if he's already turned down 5/$57mil and wants at least $70mil.
Agree. Rose is the only untouchable. You aren't building a title contender around Noah. He can easily be a part of one, but not around him. We saw how that works last year.
I just can't say I'd be excited about the ole' defense that a front line of Melo and Boozer would be. Of course, that's a problem to solve when you have it. But, I also agree, the Bulls should play a month with this team to see what they have before they go trading.
I think the Bulls will win the Central division by a comfortable margin, save a significant injury to Rose (they can handle big injuries to the other positions).
I'm curious to see what the Bucks do. Bogut can't be 100% after that arm injury, can he? He may be in 6 months, but right away?
Bogut's not 100% - it's one reason they're looking at Dampier. (BTW, did people forget he's still a solid player?)
Are we going to do a fantasy basketball league this year? I know some of us did last year and it was a lot of fun.
* Race definitely appears to have played a role in how people have interpreted his actions
* Talking about this is not going to help him.
EDIT: See this Henry Abbott post.
Promo photo of Shaq in a Boston uni up at yahoo.com. Shouldn't seem werird with all the stops he's made, but it was still an odd image for me.
Promo photo of Shaq in a Boston uni up at yahoo.com. Shouldn't seem weird with all the stops he's made, but it was still an odd image for me.
And that is who we used.
* Race definitely appears to have played a role in how people have interpreted his actions
* Talking about this is not going to help him.
Yup.
I'm convinced that Lebron's agent/management group/handlers are a dumb bunch of sycophants. Seriously, after you totally got wrong how the public/media/sponsors would react to "The Decision" you come out with this? When has playing the race card in the media ever worked? It's just one mistake after another with this group, which is odd, because up until July they had pretty much done everything right.
It worked pretty well running for President.
...be taken elsewhere. I think "Karl from NY" is just a drive-by poster on this thread, though.
http://basketball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/nba/46495
league name: NBA Playoffs Thread
Password: primer
Thanks, andrew. I feel like I will get seriously schooled competing with this crowd.
ADD:
"They got a great 1-2,” says Shaq, who disdains Chris Bosh so much he refuses to make it three. And then he started listing the Celtics, the long list of young stars and old champions fighting the fade into twilight. “Everyone is young this, young that. I’ve been in [the NBA Finals] six times in the last [16 years] years, and I haven’t seen a young team make it all the way and win it. They may look better, but they don’t do what we do."
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This might be the awesomest thing in the history of awesomeness.
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