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Friday, December 02, 2011

NBA THREAD DECEMBER: POST-LOCKOUT

With the lockout over, I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the NBA, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: fractional reserve banking, and Tim Tebow.

rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM | 3254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 01:15 AM (#4004781)
Bump.
   2. Tripon Posted: December 02, 2011 at 01:17 AM (#4004783)
Lion of the Senate would argue that Tim Tebow could play in the NBA.
   3. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 02, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#4004790)
#2 - You made me laugh. You are bad. Very bad.
   4. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 01:40 AM (#4004799)
Continuing in the tradition of close threads while discussing mediocre to below-replacement players, I'll count Otis Smith, even though he was better than our average thread-closer and was discussed in his role as GM.
   5. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 02:52 AM (#4004847)
Following up on this post I made in the lockout thread:

Also just read on Twitter that Deron Williams will not re-sign with the Nets at this time. He will wait until the offseason and become a free agent.

Which appears to be a formality, and a weird part of the new CBA. According to some tweets earlier, the best extension the Nets can offer him now is 4yr/$74mil; a FA deal from anyone else max is 4yr/$78mil. However, the Nets can resign him later with his bird rights for 5yr/$100mil. That's still the best bet, IMO.


with this tweet from the man himself:

Deron Williams: Don't know why people are tripping just bc I'm opting out doesn't mean that I won't resign with the nets! W/ new CBA it makes sense
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 03:54 AM (#4004874)
So which teams are contracting?
   7. Norcan Posted: December 02, 2011 at 04:26 AM (#4004892)
Lion of the Senate would argue that Tim Tebow could play in the NBA.


A Tim Tebow led offense would only try to score by taking 2-point shots. Its semi-hidden value would be that it gets to the line a lot.
   8. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:39 AM (#4004930)
Reports say that CP's agent says he wants to play with the Knicks.
   9. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:49 AM (#4004939)
Deron Williams: Don't know why people are tripping just bc I'm opting out doesn't mean that I won't resign with the nets! W/ new CBA it makes sense


Williams will obviously stay if the Nets get Howard. If they don't, I'd say it's 50-50 or so.
   10. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:01 AM (#4004967)
Zach Lowe explains how Chris Paul can get a max contract as a Knick:

But Paul could still force his way to New York and secure that five-year, $100 million contract, according to a draft of the league’s new CBA and a few cap experts I consulted. How? The steps:

• Force the Hornets to trade him to the Knicks without signing a contract extension in the process. This is the tricky part. The Hornets don’t have to trade Paul, and if they decide to, they don’t have to trade him to New York. Other teams have better assets, and Paul will be counting on those teams to bow out of the bidding if they think he will not re-sign there. Does this sound familiar?

• If the Hornets eventually surrender and deal him to New York, Paul’s Bird Rights go with him. He must then become a free agent, either by declining his player option for 2012-13, or accepting that option, playing that season and becoming a free agent in the summer of 2013. By entering free agency as a Knick, Paul would escape the limitations in years and money that would come with engaging in a Carmelo-type extend-and-trade deal under this new collective bargaining agreement.

• The last step is easy: Sign a five-year, $100 million extension with New York. The Knicks would have his Bird Rights, so they could exceed the cap as much as they wish to retain Paul.


http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/12/01/loophole-could-get-chris-paul-to-n-y/?sct=nba_t11_a0
   11. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 04:13 PM (#4005059)
My thoughts on the 5 on 5 for the Knicks from ESPN:

1. For which Knicks player is the 2011-12 season most important?

Landry Fields. He was terrific in the first half as a spot up shooter and garbage basket guy but disappeared once Melo arrived. Since he was a 2nd round draft pick, and an unexpected one at that, he's going to have to continue to prove himself. The fact that the Knicks have also been connected to a few 2/3s would also indicate they may not have all the faith in the world in his ability (or maybe it's just asset gathering for a potential trade.) Either way, I really like Fields and I hope he's able to figure it out.

2. Who is the most intriguing player on the Knicks' roster?

Iman Shumpert. If Shumpert gets off to a great start his emergence could increase the likelihood of a CP3 trade. Even outside of any potential trade, all of the reviews on Shumpert since he was drafted have been strong. Based on his twitter/social media stuff he seems to be a hard working guy with a good head on his shoulders and I'm definitely drinking the Kool-Aid. I'm hoping to see a lot of him and DWTDD playing together so we can apply some serious pressure on the wings.

3. What's the most surprising take in Hollinger's Knicks profiles?

Nothing really jumped out at me, though I think he went too easy on Jared Jeffries'...worth...as a player/human being.

4. Based on Hollinger's profiles, what do the Knicks need most?

A defensive-minded, board-crashing big. This is why despite the fact that Chris Paul is probably my second favorite active player I really wish Howard was interested in coming to NY. I think a Paul-Melo-Stat Knick team would be fun and competitive, probably reach the Conference Finals a couple times, but I just don't see enough there to win it all. I think a Howard-Melo-Stat Knick team would be terrifyingly good.

5. Will a shortened season help or hurt the Knicks?

Hurt. The one thing Mike D'antoni hates more than Nate Robinson and Anthony Randolph is playing more than 8 guys in a night. STAT isn't the picture of health, Billups is old and Melo usually misses games with minor injuries and we don't have much behind them so...I expect the compressed schedule to hurt the team.
   12. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:12 PM (#4005113)
3. What's the most surprising take in Hollinger's Knicks profiles?

Nothing really jumped out at me, though I think he went too easy on Jared Jeffries'...worth...as a player/human being.


He's the kind of guy that Hollinger's formula really favors - big guys who rebound ok, get blocks, and play a low amount of minutes. Their rate and efficiency stats look great, but there may be a reason they play low minutes.
   13. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:18 PM (#4005122)
Zach Lowe explains how Chris Paul can get a max contract as a Knick:

I can't believe Hollinger missed this
   14. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:48 PM (#4005146)
Paul better be careful, because if he demands a trade then waits to sign an extension, he's playing a dangerous game where his best teammate is an extremely volatile injury risk.
   15. APNY Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:50 PM (#4005148)
Zach Lowe explains how Chris Paul can get a max contract as a Knick:

Or any other team. So it's not that Paul is willing to take less from the Knicks, just that he's willing to risk his knee lasting the year. Any other team can still get him and then make him choose between their max offer and fifty something mil from the Knicks.
   16. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:05 PM (#4005164)
Paul better be careful, because if he demands a trade then waits to sign an extension, he's playing a dangerous game where his best teammate is an extremely volatile injury risk.

Huh?
   17. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:06 PM (#4005167)
The Hornets are run by the nba. Paul will be a Knick by February.
   18. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:08 PM (#4005171)
Huh?

I think he means Stoudemire.
   19. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:13 PM (#4005178)
I think he means Stoudemire.

What risk would Paul be running in that scenario?
   20. APNY Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:18 PM (#4005182)
If Paul were worried about Stot's health it would seem to be less risky to wait till after the season to commit to the Knicks. Plus, from what i've read the Knicks won't be using the amnesty on Balkman this year in case Stot breaks down.
   21. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:22 PM (#4005184)
If Paul were worried about Stot's health it would seem to be less risky to wait till after the season to commit to the Knicks. Plus, from what i've read the Knicks won't be using the amnesty on Balkman this year in case Stot breaks down.


Yes, this. Going to a young team with a wide open window and waiting to sign an extension to max out money is one thing, but the Knicks aren't exactly that. Their window might be about 4 years, but it just as easily might be THIS year.
   22. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:22 PM (#4005185)
The Hornets are run by the nba. Paul will be a Knick by February.


Right, because the thing that the other owners are all going to allow is Chris Paul dictating that he go to the Knicks AND get all his money. It's not like they just eliminated about a third of the season to prevent this sort of behavior.
   23. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:24 PM (#4005186)
Force the Hornets to trade him to the Knicks without signing a contract extension in the process. This is the tricky part. The Hornets don’t have to trade Paul, and if they decide to, they don’t have to trade him to New York. Other teams have better assets, and Paul will be counting on those teams to bow out of the bidding if they think he will not re-sign there. Does this sound familiar?

That's the hard part, and the obvious parallel is the Melo trade. However, the stat-head consensus is that the Knicks overpaid though, right, considering the Nuggets had little leverage? And everyone agrees the entire Knicks roster/picks available to trade (less STAT and MELO) isn't as good of a package as what they gave up for Melo, right? Whether or not it matters, the consensus here also is that CP3 is a better player than Melo (though it could be argued he might have a lower trade value due to injury concerns, however minor), right? That doesn't take into account the impact the league owning the Hornets has either (I can see arguments that the league owning the Hornets makes it more* or less** likely they'd trade CP3 to the Knicks).

Having said all that, and while still believing Paul will not be traded to the Knicks, how good is a Knicks team with STAT/Melo/Paul/filler? Are they ever better - or would be favored - than Miami? Chicago? Adding Paul still leaves the Knicks with huge defensive deficiencies (though it is probably easier to get a cheap player that specialized in defense), but they would potentially be a great offensive team, especially under D'Antoni.

*The Knicks as a great team is better for the league as a whole than having Paul in NO or somewhere else like Boston or Orlando or GS.
**The league doesn't want to be seen as supporting the "superteams" right after the lockout and the negative publicity Miami drew (counter: that attention was still good for the league, as a whole).
   24. APNY Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:25 PM (#4005187)
Well, they could get Paul, amnesty Stot and sign Howard. That would be fun.

Edit: If Stot broke down.
   25. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:26 PM (#4005188)
Yes, this. Going to a young team with a wide open window and waiting to sign an extension to max out money is one thing, but the Knicks aren't exactly that. Their window might be about 4 years, but it just as easily might be THIS year.

But why does this mean Paul would have to be careful as far as waiting to sign an extension. Don't you just mean he has to be careful about wanting to be a Knick at all?
   26. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#4005189)
It's not like they just eliminated about a third of the season to prevent this sort of behavior.


I was thinking the same thing when I first read about Paul's "demand." Having the first post-lockout powerplay from a player come from the team that is owned by the league is a bizarre and interesting test case. It would be pretty lousy stewardship to let him play out the year and force him to take the big pay cut. Then again, the collective ownership might be into that sort of schadenfreude. I have no idea how they'll handle it or how much autonomy Dell Demps will have in making a deal. Is his mandate for short term success to drive up the value? Selling tickets? Collecting assets? Cutting costs? All would seem plausible, and the collection of unknowns will have an awful lot to do with what he wants in a trade.
   27. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#4005190)
Forget Oklahoma-OK State: the NBA free agency period is going to be true bedlam. I've seen rankings of the top free agents (Nene, Marc Gasol (restricted), Shane Battier, Jason Richardson, etc.)-is there a comprehensive list somewhere?
   28. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:32 PM (#4005195)
Christmas Games, aka NBA Opening Day:

They are: Celtics at Knicks at 11 a.m. Central on TNT; Heat at Mavericks in a rematch of the NBA Finals at 1:30 p.m. Central on ABC; the Bulls-Lakers matchup (4pm Central on ABC); Magic at Thunder at 7 p.m. Central on ESPN; and the Clippers at Warriors in Mark Jackson's coaching debut at 9:30 p.m. Central on ESPN.
   29. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#4005196)
So every reporter has their own source "close" to Chris Paul, and they all say different things, huh?

@RicBucher: Source says CP3 knows NYK have nothing to trade to NOH and won't force his way there. Link coming.
   30. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:38 PM (#4005199)
@27,

Try this
   31. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:38 PM (#4005200)
So every reporter has their own source "close" to Chris Paul, and they all say different things, huh?

This reminds me. Has anyone here read the Shaq book? I'm almost done and he had an interesting bit on reporter coverage/anonymous sources.
   32. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#4005212)
But why does this mean Paul would have to be careful as far as waiting to sign an extension. Don't you just mean he has to be careful about wanting to be a Knick at all?


Well, yes, but the new rule that you have to wait until the end of the year to sign a max extension adds a wrinkle that didn't exist before. Before this CBA, there was never a chance that he gets traded, STAT ruins his knee(s), then Paul has to decide whether he wants to sign his max extension in NY knowing the team is not a title contender. That scenario only became a possibility in the last week.
   33. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:52 PM (#4005222)
I agree with Ian O'Connor. (Knicks should try and deal either Amar'e or Melo for Howard)

Well, yes, but the new rule that you have to wait until the end of the year to sign a max extension adds a wrinkle that didn't exist before. Before this CBA, there was never a chance that he gets traded, STAT ruins his knee(s), then Paul has to decide whether he wants to sign his max extension in NY knowing the team is not a title contender. That scenario only became a possibility in the last week.

But isn't that better for Paul than if he were to sign a max extension immediately and be locked into a far less appealing situation?
   34. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:55 PM (#4005229)
I agree with Ian O'Connor. (Knicks should try and deal either Amar'e or Melo for Howard)


Totally. But if Orlando hasn't been able to win with Howard in the middle, why would they be able to win with STAT? Maybe Smith just thinks he needs a little more time to assemble the supporting cast.
   35. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 06:57 PM (#4005233)
But isn't that better for Paul than if he were to sign a max extension immediately and be locked into a far less appealing situation?


Sure, and I'm just pointing out that this would be an odd situation, but his options aren't "force a trade to the Knicks, sign extension" or "force a trade to the Knicks, become a free agent." He could also get traded somewhere else, or take the pay cut to make sure the Knicks are going to be viable.
   36. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:02 PM (#4005240)
I agree with Ian O'Connor. (Knicks should try and deal either Amar'e or Melo for Howard)

Hollinger said to trade Melo for Paul. That would be amazing yet totally heartless by the Knicks. I'd like to see it happen for the entertainment.

But isn't that better for Paul than if he were to sign a max extension immediately and be locked into a far less appealing situation?

The bigger risk is what if Paul rips up his knee? Then he's out $70+ million.

Which is probably why I think Hollinger discounted this. I assume he's expecting the players to act totally rational (it's better to get something than risk getting nothing at all), but the players are talking about not doing that.
   37. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:04 PM (#4005241)
4. Based on Hollinger's profiles, what do the Knicks need most?

A defensive-minded, board-crashing big.


Chuck Hayes? Chris Wilcox? Shelden Williams? Or can the Knicks afford somebody better?
   38. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:05 PM (#4005242)
I'm just pointing out that this would be an odd situation, but his options aren't "force a trade to the Knicks, sign extension" or "force a trade to the Knicks, become a free agent." He could also get traded somewhere else, or take the pay cut to make sure the Knicks are going to be viable.


We're probably just arguing over semantics at this point, but Paul better be careful, because if he demands a trade then waits to sign an extension, he's playing a dangerous game where his best teammate is an extremely volatile injury risk. reads as though the danger is in waiting to sign the extension, which I don't think is your point based on your last few posts.

EDIT: Hollinger said to trade Melo for Paul. That would be amazing yet totally heartless by the Knicks. I'd like to see it happen for the entertainment.

I would sign up for this as well. I know there is no chance the Knicks will trade Amar'e or Melo, but I really believe that a team with one of the two and either Paul or Howard and then filling out the roster is better than an Amar'e, Paul, Melo + nothing team.
   39. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:15 PM (#4005259)
Hollinger said to trade Melo for Paul. That would be amazing yet totally heartless by the Knicks. I'd like to see it happen for the entertainment.


I don't follow NBA analysis but is Hollinger like the Dave Cameron of basketball? This suggestion is not interesting because it's obvious (Paul is better than Melo) and not realistic (it will never happen). It's pseudo-provocative.
   40. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:17 PM (#4005264)
I really believe that a team with one of the two and either Paul or Howard and then filling out the roster is better than an Amar'e, Paul, Melo + nothing team.

I agree. I think ideally I'd pair Paul and Stat (7 secs or less, part 2, with a better PG and an owner trying to win*) or Howard and Melo (not that Howard and Stat couldn't work, but I'd want Howard to have more room in the paint and Melo can score is ways that better compliment Howard). I'll go further and say any of the pairs that involve either Howard or Paul with either of the current Knicks is going to be better than Amare and Melo.

*I assume Dolan would be trying to win more than Sarver, it's not like he's going to be selling draft picks for cash.
   41. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:21 PM (#4005270)
I don't follow NBA analysis but is Hollinger like the Dave Cameron of basketball?

No at all, and I don't see how knowing only that suggestion out of context even implies that*. And it's part of a larger article of 10 possible trades that involve Howard and Paul. (LINK - Insider).

The relevant excerpt:

Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza and Aaron Gray to New York for Carmelo Anthony, Toney Douglas, Iman Shumpert and Chauncey Billups.

I continue to believe this is the only plausible way in which Paul can land with the Knicks. The nice thing from the Hornets' perspective is they get a centerpiece star, some young-ish assets and a chance to start over in return. While I made this a two-team deal and included Billups, he'd almost certainly be flipped to a third squad for expiring contracts and/or additional assets -- say, for instance, to Indiana for Darren Collison. The Hornets could take their time with that part, though, and hang on to Billups until the trade deadline.

(Random side note: There's one little free-agency tidbit everyone in Gotham seems to be glossing over in the CP mania -- while the Knicks don't have enough projected cap room for Paul or Deron Williams, New York absolutely has enough cap space to sign 2012 free agent and part-time Big Apple resident Steve Nash.)

As for Paul, one presumes he'd still agree to go to New York even without his fellow wedding toastee, Anthony, especially since he could opt out after the season and sign for the full Bird Rights deal of five years, $99 million with his first-choice destination ... and the Knicks would have enough room to sign another free agent to a large (although not a max) contract.


*If anyone is the Cameron of basketball is the good Dr. Berri.
   42. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#4005272)
Off Moses' point, wouldn't it be better for the Knicks to just go after Nash? It'd be a lot easier and wouldn't cost as much.
   43. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:23 PM (#4005273)
I don't follow NBA analysis but is Hollinger like the Dave Cameron of basketball?

No; Hollinger would, if pressed, admit that's not a realistic scenario, where as Cameron (or at least his stereotype) would defend the poorly thought out idea to the bitter end.
   44. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:34 PM (#4005279)
Off Moses' point, wouldn't it be better for the Knicks to just go after Nash? It'd be a lot easier and wouldn't cost as much.

That would be an awfully narrow window to win with, right? Probably the consolation prize is somehow some toher team manages to get CP3 and convince him to sign an extension.

CP3/Amare/Melo looks like an exciting team that scores in bunches and loses to the Heat (or Bulls?) in the Conference Finals every year. Am I underrating them? I suppose it also depends on the marginal moves they make. The right rebounder/shot blocker/rim protector could make a big difference, for example.
   45. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:42 PM (#4005284)
CP3/Amare/Melo looks like an exciting team that scores in bunches and loses to the Heat (or Bulls?) in the Conference Finals every year. Am I underrating them? I suppose it also depends on the marginal moves they make. The right rebounder/shot blocker/rim protector could make a big difference, for example.

I think you're rating them exactly right and with the new CBA limitations as well as no draft picks until 2023 I don't see any other conclusion.
   46. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:44 PM (#4005290)
That would be an awfully narrow window to win with, right? Probably the consolation prize is somehow some toher team manages to get CP3 and convince him to sign an extension.


Gives you two years. We've seen no shortage of players that want to play in New York and also want to play with top players. The Knicks have those, so it's not like they won't be able to find more.
   47. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:48 PM (#4005295)
Gives you two years. We've seen no shortage of players that want to play in New York and also want to play with top players. The Knicks have those, so it's not like they won't be able to find more.

The difference is Nash/Fields/Shumpert/Williams/etc vs Paul & what?
   48. steagles Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:52 PM (#4005299)
Off Moses' point, wouldn't it be better for the Knicks to just go after Nash? It'd be a lot easier and wouldn't cost as much.
nash, melo, amare.

that defense would be something to see.
   49. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:53 PM (#4005300)
We're probably just arguing over semantics at this point, but Paul better be careful, because if he demands a trade then waits to sign an extension, he's playing a dangerous game where his best teammate is an extremely volatile injury risk. reads as though the danger is in waiting to sign the extension, which I don't think is your point based on your last few posts.


You're right. I was referring to the reality that he almost has to wait to make it worthwhile financially, but what I said doesn't make that very clear.

I'll go further and say any of the pairs that involve either Howard or Paul with either of the current Knicks is going to be better than Amare and Melo.


That's almost the same as saying that both Paul and Howard are better than either Amare or Melo, which most people would agree with.

While I made this a two-team deal and included Billups, he'd almost certainly be flipped to a third squad for expiring contracts and/or additional assets -- say, for instance, to Indiana for Darren Collison


Am I missing something? Why on earth would Indy want to trade Darren Collison for even more cap space that they'll have trouble filling?

Also, I like the Chuck Hayes suggestion. He fits there wonderfully with his ability to guard the 4 and 5 as necessary, willingness to never shoot, and skill on the boards to compensate for STAT.
   50. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 07:57 PM (#4005304)
nash, melo, amare.

that defense would be something to see.


Hey, if you're going to do it, go all in.

Am I missing something? Why on earth would Indy want to trade Darren Collison for even more cap space that they'll have trouble filling?

Got me. He's one of the three guys on that team they should really be keeping around.
   51. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:07 PM (#4005310)
Off Moses' point, wouldn't it be better for the Knicks to just go after Nash? It'd be a lot easier and wouldn't cost as much.


Nash is ancient and would blow something out about 2 seconds after getting off the plane in NYC.

#SteveorKevin?
   52. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:07 PM (#4005311)
But if Orlando hasn't been able to win with Howard in the middle,


Right. If Smith decides he needs to move Howard, I think his best bet is to get back a young 5 with some talent/track record (Noah, Lopez, Bynum), get some future assets, get the other team to take Turkoglu in the deal, and amnesty Arenas. History shows pretty clearly that when you trade a top big, you can't really come out ahead. Your best call is get back a young big with some skills, clear the decks, and re-structure. The offer New Jersey supposedly made is not a bad one at all, in that context. But you don't ever "win" IMO when you have to trade a guy like Dwight Howard.

Having said all that, and while still believing Paul will not be traded to the Knicks, how good is a Knicks team with STAT/Melo/Paul/filler? Are they ever better - or would be favored - than Miami? Chicago


No. That is why I said that I think that in the very simple terms of "How can I put myself in position to hoist the O'Brien Trophy ASAP?" OKC makes the most sense for Paul. I also think that Russell Westbrook, for all the crap he takes and with his faults, is about the best guy the Hornets can get back if they have to move Paul.
   53. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:15 PM (#4005315)
Just read that the Wolves (and NJ) are deciding whether to offer Afflalo a big money contract. Chicago and LAL interested in S&T, but that seems like a stretch given Denver's position. I think they will match almost no matter what. I had a dream last night that Minnesota signed him, cuz for all the players on the roster, there isn't a true SG and his ability to play solidly at both ends would be a good fit with what they have now. Plus, if you sign him to a 4-year deal, it runs out at the same time you'd have to start paying Rubio and Williams for real. The only real financial constraint it might create is on Beasley, who is not a necessary piece of the team if they are going to be successful.
   54. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:15 PM (#4005316)
No. That is why I said that I think that in the very simple terms of "How can I put myself in position to hoist the O'Brien Trophy ASAP?" OKC makes the most sense for Paul. I also think that Russell Westbrook, for all the crap he takes and with his faults, is about the best guy the Hornets can get back if they have to move Paul.

Absolutely, right down to Westbrook's destiny as a "26 points, 8 assists per game for a 34-48 team" guy.
   55. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:19 PM (#4005324)
Sure glad Dolan Dumb and Dumber took over the 'Melo negotiations so he could give away all the assets the Knicks could have used to get CP3.
   56. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#4005326)
Sure glad Dolan Dumb and Dumber took over the 'Melo negotiations so he could give away all the assets the Knicks could have used to get CP3.

They never had enough assets to trade for both guys. It's not like Felton or Mozgov would make or break a trade for Paul.
   57. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#4005336)
Didn't they change the rules about including cash in trades? I assume it'll be tougher to buy 1st rounders now. And with revenue sharing maybe teams won't be as eager to sell the 28th pick anyway.
   58. AROM Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#4005345)
*If anyone is the Cameron of basketball is the good Dr. Berri.


No, Berri is the JC Bradbury of basketball.
   59. AROM Posted: December 02, 2011 at 08:56 PM (#4005347)
Berri's model of player evaluation would have been worth considering before 1954. Otherwise, as laughable as Bradbury's playing time based value system that said Jeff Francoeur was worth 12 million dollars the year he had a .653 OPS but got 652 PA anyway.
   60. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 02, 2011 at 09:01 PM (#4005350)
Didn't they change the rules about including cash in trades? I assume it'll be tougher to buy 1st rounders now. And with revenue sharing maybe teams won't be as eager to sell the 28th pick anyway.

Yes. $3mil max incoming per year per team. So if they get $3mil in one deal, no more cash.
   61. Jimmy P Posted: December 02, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#4005356)
Yes. $3mil max incoming per year per team. So if they get $3mil in one deal, no more cash.

That kills Dallas and Portland
   62. smileyy Posted: December 02, 2011 at 09:42 PM (#4005372)

He's the kind of guy that Hollinger's formula really favors - big guys who rebound ok, get blocks, and play a low amount of minutes. Their rate and efficiency stats look great, but there may be a reason they play low minutes.


Do any systems like PER or Win Shares take into account assisted field goals vs. unassisted field goals?
   63. kpelton Posted: December 02, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#4005375)
Hollinger has to be the Rob Neyer of basketball, right?

Do any systems like PER or Win Shares take into account assisted field goals vs. unassisted field goals?

WARP includes an estimate of assisted field goal percentage, and I think Basketball-Reference.com's Win Shares does something similar. Hoopdata.com has an adjusted PER that uses the actual number.
   64. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 09:51 PM (#4005382)
Hollinger has to be the Rob Neyer of basketball, right?


Good call. I was thinking that Cameron is more like Henry Abbott in that they defend things they probably believe in 51% to the bitter end because it makes good copy.
   65. madvillain Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:05 PM (#4005387)
WTF do the knicks have to trade for Paul? They already have traded their 1st round pick this year and in 2014. They also have a number of 2nd round picks traded out. I guess Billups and Landry fields are their assets, but those assets suck if you're trading Chris Paul. I don't really understand what leverage Paul has to force a trade to NYC. Is he going to sit out? Is he not going to show up to work if he gets traded to the Clippers?

Sorry, I'm not quite in full NBA mode yet, with the lockout pushing my interest in CFB and the NFL. I haven't been following closely enough to follow this whole "NYC or bust" thing for Paul and judge it with any sort of discerning eye.

EDIT: I see Robin's post quoting Zach Lowe above raises the issue: The Hornet's could be forced into a 'Melo situation if Paul refuses to suit up for a potential trade parnter. That certainly seems like a long shot to me, especially if the difference is between getting the Knicks' ish back or real assets.
   66. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:07 PM (#4005389)
holiinger = neyer w/ a bit more quant, yup.
too bad there's no bill james (that's no knock on dean oliver or others, mind you)
   67. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:08 PM (#4005390)
No, Berri is the JC Bradbury of basketball.
The mark of a truly great burn is that you can't tell which of the two parties should be more insulted.
   68. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:12 PM (#4005395)
paul knows he's not getting traded to nyk (not because reports are saying that today, but because he's not stupid). his agents are, in part, feeling out the new process of forcing trades. which, i guess, will be get dealt early -or- take less money later on / stay.

67: indeed, i thought that was a good one. (for my money, jc should be.)
   69. steagles Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#4005398)
i have some questions about the amnesty waiver wire:

if miami waives mike miller, what does it mean for a team to bid on him? is that bid a one-time fee made payable to the heat, with the heat still on the hook for the rest of his contract? or is the bid a new yearly salary that's deducted from the heat's annual payment to miller?

and if a team bids, do they get the player for a single year, or for the length of miller's remaining contract, or for some other length decided by some other mechanism?
   70. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:19 PM (#4005401)
Absolutely, right down to Westbrook's destiny as a "26 points, 8 assists per game for a 34-48 team" guy.


Like I suggested, I think Westbrook takes too much crap, partly because so many people have mancrushes on Durant. Hollinger raised a point about Durant that I think gets overlooked:

The one weakness for Durant is his court vision. He was only 55th among the league's 67 small forwards in assist rate; improving in that area might deflect some of the attention he's now given and make him even more effective.


Westbrook, as I said last spring, seems to me to have only adequate court vision, particularly for a 1, (he played the 2 at UCLA, remember--the NBA has been OJT for him) and he is definitely not Nash or Paul in that area. The two of them together as your key guys, combined with Westbrook's lack of a midrange game, and Durant's diffculty getting open, and some questionable tactics by Brooks...well, these things may need to be addressed to get them over the top.

But OTOH, they won 56 games and made the conference finals, and neither of these guys is 25 years old. Westbrook takes bad shots sometimes, but I think the "Westbrook is a selfish punk" card is overplayed. Hollinger on Westbrook:

The difference is that, aesthetically, Westbrook leaves a lot more to be desired. The end result may be the same, but Westbrook's mistakes are more visibly frustrating -- his shot selection is questionable, he has no in-between game (he was the third-worst shooter in the league from 3 to 9 feet, at just 26.6 percent), and his game comes across as more selfish


Hollinger has to be the Rob Neyer of basketball, right?


I actually discussed this with Backlasher awhile back. Hollinger has created some analytical formulas and was one of the guys who popularized stathead hoopswriting on the net. He has been called the "Bill James of Basketball", which he is not. I think that would have been Dean Oliver, if Oliver had started writing an annual back in the day. But Hollinger is different than Neyer. Hollinger would be more like Neyer if he wrote the same stuff but used Pelton's, Oliver's et al formulas.

That is not meant to put either JH or RN down; I like both guys as writers.
   71. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:21 PM (#4005402)
or is the bid a new yearly salary that's deducted from the heat's annual payment to miller


They pay Miller whatever they bid, and Miami pays the rest. IIRC they are buying the whole contract, not just this year.
   72. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:27 PM (#4005406)
As far as the Paul-to-NY situation, I don't know what it going to happen, but I still think Hollinger is being too linear about it.

Also, if Paul is worried about branding, he needs to stop talking about this and try, if he can, to reduce the leaks and rumors if they are in fact emanating from people around him. The "my heart is in New Orleans" quote followed by successive days of "Paul demands trade" and "Paul won't force trade" are already making him look bad. People will be pissed off at him anyway, of course, if he becomes a Knick, but if he cares about his image (and I think a lot of these guys do) he needs to play the rest of this a little differently.
   73. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:40 PM (#4005419)
CP3 isn't coming to NY. The Knicks don't have enough to get him and the NBA owners aren't going to sign off on another guy talking his way out of his current team, and onto a team of his choosing.

Not that it will matter to Dolan and whoever has his ear, but the better basketball move for the Knicks is trying to get Dwight Howard. They could -- and should -- include Stoudemire or Anthony in the deal.
   74. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:45 PM (#4005422)
Like I suggested, I think Westbrook takes too much crap, partly because so many people have mancrushes on Durant.

You pegged me, and I will admit to that being only a semi-serious, somewhat flippant comment about Westbroook's future.
   75. madvillain Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:49 PM (#4005427)
Not that it will matter to Dolan and whoever has his ear, but the better basketball move for the Knicks is trying to get Dwight Howard. They could -- and should -- include Stoudemire or Anthony in the deal.


The Knicks have had issues insuring Amare's contract. I'm not sure how much trade value he has. There are pretty serious concerns about his knees going forward.
   76. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#4005429)
Basketball Prospectus simulated the '11-'12 season (I believe this was just one season) and here are the regular season results. The first round of the EC playoffs can be found here. Thoughts?
   77. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 10:52 PM (#4005434)
The Knicks don't have enough to get him and the NBA owners aren't going to sign off on another guy talking his way out of his current team, and onto a team of his choosing.


Perhaps not, but I think that assumption is, again, too linear. Paul landing on the Knicks would:

a) Make the league a lot of money/get it a lot of buzz.
b) Stoke the WE NEED A HARD CAP AND A FRANCHISE TAG TO STOP THESE SELFISH AHOLES FROM RUINING THE LEAGUE WITH THEIR SUPERTEAMS fire.
(Look, even the NBA-run team couldn't stop it)

Like I said, I think this CBA is only Phase I of what Stern, and Silver, (and the small-market owners), who I think may be commish by 2017, want to do.

If you're Michael Jordan or Herb Kohl or Robert Sarver, there is no reason for you to really give a damn about whether Paul plays for the Thunder or the Knicks or the Clippers. Paul isn't coming to YOUR team in any scenario. But if he goes to New York, that might help you get the hard cap down the line.

I may be wrong, of course. I am very cynical about the owners, perhaps excessively so.
   78. rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:06 PM (#4005446)
Thoughts?


If the Lakers WPCT approaches what it was in the SIM, Mike Brown is a genius.
   79. smileyy Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:06 PM (#4005447)
Re: Westbrook, most of the crap I shovel out is (1) not wanting to see him turn into Steve Francis or Starbury and (2) wanting coaches/management to leverage his unique talents to their maximum.
   80. madvillain Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:08 PM (#4005448)
Basketball Prospectus simulated the '11-'12 season (I believe this was just one season) and here are the regular season results. The first round of the EC playoffs can be found here. Thoughts?


As a Bulls fan, that's encouraging. Rose with a 26.5 PER, a 10.8 point win margin, 59 wins (obviously they simmed 82 game season) -- and that's without adding any help at SG.
   81. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:13 PM (#4005455)
Thoughts?

Andrea Bargnani dropped 61 on the Celtics?

Standings-wise, assuming no major trades, there's nothing that looks wildly off to me. The Nuggets probably aren't that good. Lakers and Celtics might be a little high but not egregiously so. Fun stuff.
   82. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:20 PM (#4005460)
Like I said, I think this CBA is only Phase I of what Stern, and Silver, (and the small-market owners), who I think may be commish by 2017, want to do...I may be wrong, of course. I am very cynical about the owners, perhaps excessively so.


My read is a bit less cynical, in that I don't think the owners are nearly that united. I think there is a spectrum with no real quorum, so that Stern's hands were somewhat tied in negotiation. He had to placate (to some extent) on both sides of the hawk/dove divide. In terms of Paul, I don't think his landing on the Knicks would do much to stoke the hard cap momentum, mostly because we're six years away from any possible CBA shifts, by which point it would be ancient news. The Decision was perfect for the hawks because of who it was, but also because it happened right before the old CBA expired. In the meantime, I would expect (without any more info than you have, of course) owners to be more resistant to CP3-to-the-Knicks movement than strategic stoking of public opinion.
   83. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#4005464)
Like I said, I think this CBA is only Phase I of what Stern, and Silver, (and the small-market owners), who I think may be commish by 2017, want to do.


That makes sense, but it's too far away, I think. It would almost be like the owners trying to use Gary Payton and Karl Malone ring chasing in LA as a motivating factor this year.
   84. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:37 PM (#4005474)
Those sim results just look too much like last year. I don't know what will change, but I doubt it will be exactly the same.
   85. smileyy Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:38 PM (#4005477)
The first round of the (BaskPro Sim) EC playoffs can be found here. Thoughts?


I don't think I can express how much sim-schadenfreude I took out of the Knicks blowing the 3-1 series lead.
   86. steagles Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:40 PM (#4005481)
Thoughts?

if the sixers season resembles that sim in any way (other than jodie meeks shooting 49% from beyond the arc), this year will be a bloodbath.

considering the potential improvements that can be made by young, holiday, and turner, and with the hole in the middle plugged by (crossing my fingers) an actual NBA caliber center, i'm gonna take the over on wins--even after considering that this is a 66 game season.
   87. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#4005488)
if the sixers season resembles that sim in any way (other than jodie meeks shooting 49% from beyond the arc), this year will be a bloodbath.


Yeah, they stood out as the low outlier to me. On the other hand, Minnesota finishing 3 games out of the playoffs seems too rosy.
   88. madvillain Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:54 PM (#4005489)
Simmons has a new piece up, it's his typical inane owner-sided drivel:

Throwing in the first year's BRI (51.2 percent for the players, not a 50/50 split), the players will probably be giving back as little as $225 million and as much as $300 million for each of these next six years, except for the part where they didn't actually "give back" anything. Their deal had expired. The new deal was renewed for less money. Sorry, that's life. If the fourth Mission Impossible movie doesn't make as much money as everyone expects, Tom Cruise isn't "giving back" his salary quote to make his next movie. He's just making less money, because he's worth less. That's what happened here.


It's been brought up countless times: nobody knows if the NBA was really losing that "300 million a year" figure that Stern threw out there. And there is no monolithic enterprise that's losing 300 million (assuming that's even close to accurate): it's certain markets. How do you solve that? Well, the obvious solution is revenue sharing. Except you have a solid block of profitable owners that don't want any part of increase revenue sharing.

Collectively, they [the players] were overpaid — repeat: overpaid — and now, they're a little less overpaid. They worked for a group of owners who were dissatisfied enough with their current business that, eventually, they didn't care if that business stopped or not.


Again, this is a rash oversimplification. There were plenty of owners that DID NOT WANT to lose a season and that's a large part of why a deal got done. Guess why they didn't want to lose a season -- they are making big profits.

_____________

The rest of it is entertaining, typical light-weight style Simmons analysis.
   89. andrewberg Posted: December 02, 2011 at 11:58 PM (#4005491)
Let's go back to the concept of the players "giving back" $225 million to $300 million for each of the next six years. The owners "give back" at least $300 million of absurd contracts every single year. Could we finally be even???


Another unflattering excerpt from the Simmons piece. I guess he doesn't understand BRI.
   90. rr Posted: December 03, 2011 at 12:13 AM (#4005500)
Throwing in the first year's BRI (51.2 percent for the players, not a 50/50 split), the players will probably be giving back as little as $225 million and as much as $300 million for each of these next six years, except for the part where they didn't actually "give back" anything. Their deal had expired. The new deal was renewed for less money. Sorry, that's life. If the fourth Mission Impossible movie doesn't make as much money as everyone expects, Tom Cruise isn't "giving back" his salary quote to make his next movie. He's just making less money, because he's worth less. That's what happened here.


Simmons is, again, mirroring ownerhawk internet trolls here, combining faulty reasoning with arrogance and stupidity.

In general, negotiations use the previous contract as a starting point for talks. A cut or a giveback may be needed or reasonable--but it is still a cut or a giveback, if your side is the one getting less. Simmons, if his momentum ever slacks off at ESPN and he is still working for them on a contractual basis, may one day discover this for himself.

Essentially, my read on Simmons on this is that his own enterpreneurial success and the company he now keeps in his chosen field have badly compromised his objectivity on this issue. There is no metric that determines whether the players are "overpaid" collectively; the relationship between thenm and the league as an entity, if not any individual owner, is symbiotic, as the behavior of the two sides shows.

The owners had some leverage and they used it; the players were willing to take less, decided to take a sub-optimal but acceptable deal to start getting paid again and get back on the court. Nothing much else happened, no matter what narrative Simmons sells himself. Sorry, that's life.

____

There is going to be some increased revenue sharing--no one knows exactly how much or how it wil be set up yet, though.
   91. andrewberg Posted: December 03, 2011 at 12:47 AM (#4005522)
Essentially, my read on Simmons on this is that his own enterpreneurial success and the company he now keeps in his chosen field have badly compromised his objectivity on this issue. There is no metric that determines whether the players are "overpaid" collectively; the relationship between thenm and the league as an entity, if not any individual owner, is symbiotic, as the behavior of the two sides shows.


There are at least two parts to it. For one, there's the part whereby he became part of the "winners" club (both through luck and talent/hard work), which has positioned him, subjectively, closer to ownership interests. You and others have made this point and I think it is worth repeating. Still, there is another part of it, which is that he seems to have a fundamental misunderstanding of the contractual relationship under the CBA. The players and owners negotiated that the players would get 57% of the BRI. Nobody held a gun to the owners' heads. In fact, it was quite the opposite. To treat the players with scorn and the owners with pity over their previous contract obscures the fact that both parties had agency in the process. Additionally, when he defaults to the "that's life, that's just how good businessmen do their job" meme, he's condescendingly insulting the union's business sense- the same union that negotiated such a good deal last time around that it nearly crushed the owners! It's not about idiot GMs overpaying free agents on a microlevel, it's about an entire league agreeing that 57% was a sustainable level, then choking on its own bad business sense.
   92. smileyy Posted: December 03, 2011 at 12:51 AM (#4005524)
It's not about idiot GMs overpaying free agents on a microlevel, it's about an entire league agreeing that 57% was a sustainable level, then choking on its own bad business sense.


Or it could be about the NBA as a collective funneling money into business ventures (at a current loss) to create pressure to drive down the BRI split by the time to ventures pay off.
   93. andrewberg Posted: December 03, 2011 at 12:59 AM (#4005528)
Or it could be about the NBA as a collective funneling money into business ventures (at a current loss) to create pressure to drive down the BRI split by the time to ventures pay off.


Very true, an even more cynical view than mine, but I'll take it!
   94. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 03, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#4005531)
I'm with everyone else; I want to see Bargnani's 61 in Boston. I suspect the Raptors lose that.
   95. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 03, 2011 at 01:07 AM (#4005533)
I suspect the Raptors lose that.

In the sim not only did they lose, but Bargnani had the worst +/- on the team!
   96. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 03, 2011 at 03:13 AM (#4005580)
That is not meant to put either JH or RN down; I like both guys as writers.

indeed, i own stuff by both of 'em - and was reading hollinger back in his alleyoop days.
   97. rr Posted: December 03, 2011 at 04:30 AM (#4005606)
I guess he doesn't understand BRI.


Correct. When the lockout started, he made a list of bad NBA contracts (Rashard Lewis, Eddy Curry, Andris Biedrins) etc--that totalled over 300M. Someone here--maybe it was you, actually
--pointed out then that Simmons seemingly doesn't grasp BRI.

That makes sense, but it's too far away, I think. It would almost be like the owners trying to use Gary Payton and Karl Malone ring chasing in LA as a motivating factor this year.


2017 is a long way off, but I am looking at it like this:

1. Paul goes to NY or LA Clippers.
2. Howard goes to Brooklyn or LA (Lakers or Clippers). Williams goes with Howard.
3. Rose of course stays in Chicago.
4. Griffin stays with the Clippers.
5. And we have the Three MiEgos in Miami.

That puts a tremendous concentration of the top stars in NY, LA, CHI, and Miami. Durant will still be in OKC, ("the exception that proves the rule") but it is easy to picture that group of teams dividing up the trophies over the next 4-5 years, and the lead-up rhetoric in 2015-16 being "We didn't go far enough."

Also, of all the guys in that group of players, the oldest is Dwyane Wade, who is almost 30 but is certainly not an "old" player yet. No one else is even 28. And, of course, this scenario mostly ignores the Lakers. Like most Laker fans, I am not sure where the team is headed, but there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. Even so, they still have Kobe, Pau, Odom, and Bynum. I don't see them winning again with this group, but they still have the big payroll and will be in the mix, both conversationally and on the floor. The same goes for the Celtics, who will have cap space next year.

And, of course, if the Lakers actually land Dwight Howard (I seriously doubt it will happen, but the possibility is there) that will lead to immediate calls from all over the place for a franchise tag and a hard cap, and Bill Simmons may be leading the charge. Paul going to NY would create a lot of the same noise.

So, put that all together, and I think Stern may welcome this set of possible developments. It is not as if Paul's people making noise about NY or the Nets chasing Howard are out-of-left-field surprises.
   98. Maxwn Posted: December 03, 2011 at 05:11 AM (#4005616)
Someone here--maybe it was you, actually--pointed out then that Simmons seemingly doesn't grasp BRI.

This was on display in his last podcast with House. There's a section at the beginning where they are attempting to discuss the salary cap room for some team and Simmons says something about the cap being lower because the BRI split was lower. House then says that he thought the cap number was the same, which is more or less correct if I'm not mistaken. Either way, it's a totally separate issue from the BRI split. The ensuring discussion makes it very clear that Simmons has no real understanding of BRI, the cap, the tax or really anything about the NBA's economic system, which is why he continually conflates all the issues and makes arguments that have nothing to do with anything. I have enjoyed his work in the past, I have the Book of Basketball and liked it quite a bit, but I have really soured on him during this lockout. It's not even that he's a flack for the owners, it's that he's a flack for the owners who doesn't even know why.

In a way, I guess it sort of fits with his whole Joe AverageFan persona, because Joe AverageFan doesn't understand #### about these issues either. I don't think that's what Simmons had in mind though.
   99. rr Posted: December 03, 2011 at 06:33 AM (#4005634)
Haberstroh on Rajon Rondo:

Consider this: When Ray Allen was on the court, Rondo tallied 11.4 assists per 36 minutes. When Ray Allen left the court? 8.0 assists per 36 minutes -- the equivalent of Devin Harris' rate last season.


There was a similar effect with Pierce.

Rondo represents a small group of fine players who shine brightest next to superstars. No one would call Rondo a role player because of the pejorative connotation, but non-scorers like Tyson Chandler


This is Insider, so I can't quote much, but the conclusion is basically that Rondo is not as good as Rose or Westbrook--that Rondo is more like Tony Parker.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7306324/rajon-rondo-player-build-team-nba
   100. Maxwn Posted: December 03, 2011 at 07:10 AM (#4005636)
it's that he's a flack for the owners who doesn't even know why.

Upon reflection, I have decided that this is not really what I mean. Simmons obviously has reasons that he is more or less sided with the owners, and I don't doubt that they are more or less honestly held. The problem is none of his thoughts, solutions or arguments on this issue show much engagement with the actual details of the NBA's business situation and economic system. Mostly he seems to be going off of what feels like the right answer to him. Fans tend to be like this on these issues because there's no real reason for them to spend much time learning details about BRI, salary caps, CBAs etc. They tend to identify with their team first, and that seems to transfer to the owners. Also a lot of the stuff the fans say they care about, like competitive balance, is a lot easier for the owners to play to rhetorically than the players. Simmons still seems stuck in this mode to me, although Robin's points about Simmons basically being management now are also well taken.

All of that would be fine if he was just a fan, but he's one of the biggest sportswriters in the world, and possibly the most-read NBA writer. For him to put no more effort into understanding the issues than he appears to have done is just inexcusable.
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