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Friday, December 02, 2011

NBA THREAD DECEMBER: POST-LOCKOUT

With the lockout over, I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the NBA, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: fractional reserve banking, and Tim Tebow.

rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM | 3254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1201. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 15, 2011 at 07:25 PM (#4017154)
Re-posting after flip.

Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City
2. Memphis
3. Dallas
4. San Antonio
5. Denver
6. Clippers
7. Portland
8. Lakers

9. Houston
10. Utah
11. Golden State
12. Phoenix
13. Sacramento
14. New Orleans
15. Minnesota

Eastern Conference
1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. Boston
4. Orlando
5. New York
6. Philadelphia
7. Atlanta
8. Milwaukee

9. Indiana
10. Detroit
11. New Jersey
12. Washington
13. Charlotte
14. Toronto
15. Cleveland

Round 1
OKC over LAL | MEM over POR
DAL over LAC | SAS over DEN

CHI over MIL | MIA over ATL
BOS over NY | NY over ORL

Conference Semis
OKC over SAS | MEM over DAL
CHI over BOS | MIA over NY

Conference Finals
OKC over MEM | CHI over MIA

Finals
CHI over OKC
   1202. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 07:47 PM (#4017176)
Western Conference
1. OKC
2. SA
3. DAL
4. LAL
5. MEM
6. LAC
7. HOU
8. DEN

9. POR
10. GS
11. PHO
12. MIN
13. UTA
14. SAC
15. NO

Eastern Conference
1. CHI
2. MIA
3. NYK
4. BOS
5. ATL
6. IND
7. NJ
8. PHI

9. ORL
10. MIL
11. WAS
12. DET
13. TOR
14. CHA
15. CLE

Round 1
OKC over DEN | SA over HOU
LAC over DAL | LAL over MEM

CHI over PHI | MIA over NJ
IND over NYK | BOS over ATL

Conference Semis
OKC over LAL | LAC over SA
CHI over BOS | MIA over IND

Conference Finals
OKC over LAC | CHI over MIA

Finals
CHI over OKC

1. Yes, I'm factoring in a Howard to NJ trade during the season. It'll be enough to knock the Magic out of the playoff race, but won't get NJ high enough.
2. I don't think Boston cares that much about the regular season, and so that lets the inferior Knicks steal the division and 3 seed. But the Pacers will get the better of the Knicks in the playoffs.
3. I don't really think the Clippers are that good, but the way the West shakes out I don't see them losing those matchups. And Paul is that good, and will make Griffin look even better.
4. I think this year Houston breaks through and gets into the playoffs, and I'm not crazy about that Portland team.
5. I think Minn and Wash will be better than their records indicate, but it's a year too early for either of them to be sniffing playoffs.
6. The bottom 4 of the East can finish in any order; those 4 teams are just absolute garbage and are probably the worst 4 teams in the league.
7. This is the year Skiles flames out in Milwaukee.
8. Gun to my head, I'd pick the Heat over the Bulls and to win the title. But I can't go with that, since that's likely the consensus pick around here. Bulls would beat the Thunder though if they played in the Finals.

ROY: Rubio (not sure who else to pick here)
COY: D'Antoni (going by the logic of which team is higher than they'd probably be picked by most before the season starts)
MVP: Durant (it's his turn, and with the best record it's an easy vote for most writers)
   1203. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:05 PM (#4017197)
Jamal Crawford to Blazers, 2yr $10mil.
   1204. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:08 PM (#4017203)
I did not see that coming.
   1205. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:17 PM (#4017209)
Western Conference
1. OKC
2. LAL
3. DAL
4. LAC
5. SA
6. POR
7. MEM
8. DEN

9. HOU
10. GS
11. UTA
12. PHO
13. SAC
14. MIN
15. NO

Eastern Conference
1. MIA
2. BOS
3. CHI
4. ORL
5. ATL
6. NYK
7. IND
8. NJ

9. MIL
10. PHI
11. WAS
12. CHA
13. DET
14. TOR
15. CLE

Conference Finals
OKC over LAL, MIA over BOS

Finals
MIA over OKC
   1206. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#4017213)
jmurph, why do you see Chicago regressing so much? I like them less than most here, but your predicitions still surprised me a little.
   1207. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:26 PM (#4017215)
Western Conference
1. OKC
2. MEM
3. LAC
4. SAS
5. LAL
6. DEN
7. DAL
8. POR

9. HOU
10. GS
11. PHO
12. MIN
13. UTA
14. SAC
15. NO

Eastern Conference
1. MIA
2. CHI
3. BOS
4. NYK
5. IND
6. ORL
7. ATL
8. PHI

9. MIL
10. WAS
11. NJ
12. DET
13. TOR
14. CHA
15. CLE

Round 1
OKC over POR | LAL over SAS
MEM over DAL | LAC over DEN

CHI over ATL | MIA over PHI
NYK over IND | BOS over ORL

Conference Semis
OKC over LAL | MEM over LAC
CHI over BOS | MIA over NYK

Conference Finals
OKC over MEM | MIA over CHI

Finals
CHI over OKC

1. I'm thinking/assuming Howard stays with ORL all year.
2. Like I've said on the previous page, I don't think DAL is going to be very good sans Chandler and with Dirk and Kidd a year older.
3. I don't think the Clippers are great, but the West is really old and I think Paul is going to do wonders for Griffin and Jordan offensively and I also think people are overlooking the Chauncey addition.
4. I continue to believe that if the Knicks meet Chicago in the playoffs they can (not the same as will) beat them, but I see no way they can meet them.
5. I really like Indiana a lot, but that may just be my Paul George mancrush.
6. Gallo is going to average over 20ppg
7. The non-playoff teams in both conferences are going to be really, really terrible.
8. If the Finals doesn't feature some combination of OKC v MIA/CHI I will be absolutely shocked.

ROY: Shumpert (He's going to get a lot of minutes at the 1 and 2 in a fast paced offense and is, as of now, being asked to be THE scorer off the bench.)
DPOY: Howard (until he dies, probably)
COY: Vogel (like I said, I really like Indy and I think they're going to be surprisingly good)
MVP: Paul (Making the Clippers relevant)
   1208. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#4017219)
jmurph, why do you hate Memphis?

EDIT: [1201] Are you assuming some sort of massive Bynum injury?

[1202] What are you seeing with/in SAS?
   1209. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:31 PM (#4017222)
West:
1. OKC
2. DAL
3. SA
4. MEM
5. LAL
6. POR
7. LAC
8. MIN

9. HOU
10. GS
11. DEN
12. PHX
13. SAC
14. UTA
15. NO

Eastern Conference
1. MIA
2. CHI
3. ATL
4. NYK
5. BOS
6. ORL
7. IND
8. WAS

9. NJ
10. PHI
11. MIL
12. CLE
13. CHA
14. DET
15. TOR

W Round 1: OKC over MIN, DAL over LAC, SA over POR, MEM over LAL
E Round 1: MIA over WAS, CHI over IND, ORL over ATL, BOS over NYK

Round 2: MEM over OKC, DAL over SA, MIA over BOS, CHI over ORL

Conf finals: MEM over DAL, MIA over CHI
Finals: MIA over MEM

RoY: Derrick Williams
CoY: almost 100% correlated w/ difference in team record, prediction would be redundant
MVP: Durant

1. I think the Bulls are going to slip a little just due to regression to the mean and I think the Heat have worked out a lot of the kinks and will benefit from flying under the radar a bit more.
2. I like Odom on Dallas a lot.
3. I think good coaches are going to have a big advantage with the wonky schedule -- need to make quick adjustments, etc.. DAL, SA, MIN, MEM are ranked much higher than I would put them in a normal 82 game season. The coach to watch for me is Mike Brown, will be interesting to see how he handles having different personnel than he had in Cleveland along w/ transitioning away from the triangle.
4. I think Atlanta is a sleeper this year -- Horford has been threatening to have a true breakout year for a while (something like 22-12) and who knows, maybe it's this year. He is a really good player already. They are getting zero press, and I know the CW is that they have stagnated, but I think they have a shot -- returning basically the same team (minus Crawford) is going to be a plus in this format.
5. I can't pick a VDN-coached team to finish higher than 7th. I just can't. With CP3 he is like a 15 year old who has come home to find his Kia replaced by a Ferrari. He's gonna crash the car, the only questions are how and when.
6. Washington is also a sleeper. I think Wall's going to have a big year. I think they could even make some noise in the playoffs (by which I mean potentially extend a first-round series to 7).
   1210. Jimmy P Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4017228)
Jamal Crawford to Blazers, 2yr $10mil.


They've been talking about that out here for a few days. I think they have to amnesty Roy to do it, though. They have a glut of wings, which probably will lead them to the "small" lineup with Aldridge at 5 and Wallace at 4. They aren't attached to Wallace, and this preseason for the first time I've heard realistic questioning of Batum.

The real question here in Rip City is, who's calling the shots? Some speculate Nate, some speculate the faux GM, but most think it's Allen right-hand guy in Seattle, aka The Vulcans.
   1211. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:42 PM (#4017229)
Western Conference
1. OKC
2. MEM
3. SAS
4. LAL
5. DEN
6. DAL
7. POR
8. LAC

9. HOU
10. PHO
11. GS
12. MIN
13. SAC
14. NO
15. UTA

Eastern Conference
1. MIA
2. CHI
3. BOS
4. NYK
5. ORL (I think Dwight does stay put this season.)
6. ATL
7. PHI
8. IND

9. MIL
10. NJ
11. WAS
12. DET
13. TOR
14. CHA
15. CLE

Round 1
OKC over LAC | DEN over LAL
MEM over POR | DAL over SAS

MIA over IND | NYK over ORL
CHI over PHI | BOS over ATL

Conference Semis
OKC over DEN | MEM over DAL
MIA over NYK | BOS over CHI

Conference Finals
OKC over MEM | MIA over BOS

Finals
MIA over OKC



ROY: Rubio (I think he'll put up big assists and get a lot of highlights, though his shooting/scoring won't be amazing. This might be a bad guess, but people love point guards right now, and he'll be running a fast-paced offense, which should pad his stats a bit.)
DPOY: Howard (Is anyone else in the running if he's healthy?)
COY: Brooks (This is predicated on OKC really taking the Western Conference by storm, not on his being an amazing coach.)
MVP: Rondo (Total homer pick. I'm betting on the 3% chance he figures out a way to harness himself and be good playoff Rondo night in and night out.)
   1212. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#4017231)
2. BOS

I know it's just predictions, and everyone's got their own opinions, but I see no scenario where the Celtics finish this high in the standings. They've shown the last couple of years the regular season (and HCA) don't matter to them. They're by far the oldest contender in the East, and this compressed schedule might hurt them as much as anyone in the league. Now, the playoffs are a different story and I can't criticize picking them to win anything there. But the regular season, no way.

Are you assuming some sort of massive Bynum injury?

Ha. Are you assuming no Bynum injury? (I'm kidding, sort of.)

[1202] What are you seeing with/in SAS?

I see a semi-deep team, with minimal turnover and great coaching. Yeah, they're old, but I don't see why they won't cruise through the regular season again. They're not as good as their record will be.

I continue to believe that if the Knicks meet Chicago in the playoffs they can (not the same as will) beat them, but I see no way they can meet them.

And I say the Knicks match up so much worse against the Bulls now than they did at the start of last season. They're better this year, but have less of a chance of beating the Bulls.
   1213. Jimmy P Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#4017232)

I see a semi-deep team, with minimal turnover and great coaching. Yeah, they're old, but I don't see why they won't cruise through the regular season again. They're not as good as their record will be.


I think the opposite. I can easily envision Pop literally not playing his 3 guys at all. I can see stretches where they'll just not play Manu and Duncan at all, whole games, and basically mail it in.
   1214. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#4017234)
jmurph, why do you see Chicago regressing so much?


Because I'm a Celtics homer like you! But also: combination of massive (totally unjustified) optimism about Boston miraculously staying healthy and just a leveling for Chicago. Not so much regression. I realize they're not playing Miami every night (understatement of the day), but I thought the limits of the 1 on 5 offense were pretty apparent in that series. I see the case for an improved Chicago team (Boozer being healthy and more effective), I just don't see why that should be a given.

jmurph, why do you hate Memphis?


Randolph isn't really going to do that 2 years in a row, is he?
   1215. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:54 PM (#4017241)
And I say the Knicks match up so much worse against the Bulls now than they did at the start of last season. They're better this year, but have less of a chance of beating the Bulls.

This is a fair point. I think it's just that I'm probably being a homer, but...I think the 1 on 5 offense plays into the Knicks' defensive...abilities.

How did everyone come up with their predictions? I was in a really long meeting so I wrote down each team and then listed each player I thought was very good or better and then had a second category for players who I thought were avg to just good. This was when I realized that LAL lacked depth, BOS was better than I wanted to believe, CHI and MIA are loaded, OKC and DEN aren't as good as I'd like them to be and DAL is ######.
   1216. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:55 PM (#4017244)
By the way, when these are in I'll tally and produce consensus BBTF predictions in case anyone else was going to start wasting time doing that. Would be cool to compare ours to predictions from other sources (especially other aggregate predictions like ESPN.com's) at the end of the year, if someone wants to grab those (I am not among the most well-read on this thread).
   1217. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:56 PM (#4017245)
I see my Celtics bias may be showing; there's a lot of similarities between Boston and SA. I guess I think there's more good teams in the East (although the bottom is worse), so the Spurs have an easier path to a higher seed.
   1218. andrewberg Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#4017246)
1. OKC
2. SA
3. DAL
4. LAL
5. MEM
6. LAC
7. POR
8. DEN

9. HOU
10. UTA
11. PHX
12. GS
13. MIN
14. SAC
15. NO

1. MIA
2. CHI
3. NYK
4. BOS
5. ORL (assuming Howard until I know otherwise)
6. IND
7. ATL
8. PHI

9. MIL
10. NJ
11. WAS
12. DET
13. CHA
14. TOR
15. CLE

semis
OKC def MEM SA def LAC
MIA def BOS CHI def NYK

cf
OKC def SA
MIA def CHI

finals
MIA def OKC

MVP- James
COY- Popp
6th Man- Harden
DPOY- Howard
ROY- D Williams
   1219. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#4017247)
Randolph isn't really going to do that 2 years in a row, is he?

I've seen this sentiment a lot, but I don't get it. Last year's performance wasn't THAT out of line with what Randolph has done in the past. Any decline suffered by him could, realistically, be offset by Gasol (who was worse than he was the year prior) or a full season from Rudy Gay.
   1220. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#4017249)
I know it's just predictions, and everyone's got their own opinions, but I see no scenario where the Celtics finish this high in the standings. They've shown the last couple of years the regular season (and HCA) don't matter to them. They're by far the oldest contender in the East, and this compressed schedule might hurt them as much as anyone in the league. Now, the playoffs are a different story and I can't criticize picking them to win anything there. But the regular season, no way.


I don't think there's anything wrong with this logic at all, and I think it would be pretty easy to make the case that Garnett misses 30 games, Allen misses 20, Pierce looks even older, and they hover around .500. Unlikely, probably, but not out of the question. My hope is that the compressed schedule forces the veteran teams to stay on their game the entire way. You take a week off (mentally) in a normal year and you go 0-2, or 1-2. You do that this year in a week with 5 games and you're looking at a 3 or 4 game swing in the standings. I hope they're smarter than that.
   1221. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:59 PM (#4017250)
Because I'm a Celtics homer like you! But also: combination of massive (totally unjustified) optimism about Boston miraculously staying healthy and just a leveling for Chicago. Not so much regression. I realize they're not playing Miami every night (understatement of the day), but I thought the limits of the 1 on 5 offense were pretty apparent in that series. I see the case for an improved Chicago team (Boozer being healthy and more effective), I just don't see why that should be a given.

FWIW, I don't see them getting any better, and maybe regressing a bit in terms of regular season WPct. I don't think there's much room for improvement as currently constructed, myself. I am shocked to see three of you picking them to win it all. How do they beat Miami? I don't see that as anything more than a puncher's chance unless there's injuries or Chicago makes a big move.

Nice to see NJ and FTO throwing in major, major homer picks in the awards. Why not, I guess. Rondo being consistent? Iman Shumpert winning RotY?

I think they have to amnesty Roy to do it, though.

Didn't Roy retire?

Already said it, but Memphis is not a top two or three team in the West unless Z-Bo can somehow repeat last season and Rudy Gay fits back in seamlessly AND the rest of their young roster improves or at least hold serve. That's a lot of "unless" for me.
   1222. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:03 PM (#4017253)
Didn't Roy retire?


He did, but unless they amnesty him he doesn't come off of the books until a year after he last played, or something like that. To have that space from the beginning of the season, he'd have to be amnestied.
   1223. Maxwn Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#4017255)
Randolph isn't really going to do that 2 years in a row, is he?

He already did it 2 years in a row. He was better last year than the year before, but not by all that much.
   1224. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#4017257)
Got it, FTO. Thanks.
   1225. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:07 PM (#4017258)
realize they're not playing Miami every night (understatement of the day), but I thought the limits of the 1 on 5 offense were pretty apparent in that series. I see the case for an improved Chicago team (Boozer being healthy and more effective), I just don't see why that should be a given.

Even with those limits, it took a couple of furious comebacks and multiple hero shots. Miami was the better team, but it was a closer series than 4-1 makes it look. Boozer may not be healthy or better, so that isn't a guarantee. Rip may not be great, but he's a big upgrade from Bogans. More than anything, I still say Rose should improve this season - considering the jump he made last year, that might sound homerish, but there's a lot of specific things he can work on and get better.
   1226. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#4017260)
Already said it, but Memphis is not a top two or three team in the West unless Z-Bo can somehow repeat last season and Rudy Gay fits back in seamlessly AND the rest of their young roster improves or at least hold serve.


I started out having Memphis 7th and by the time I was done I'd moved them up to 4th and thought about moving them higher. The thing is, who are the top 2 or 3 teams in the West? Looking at last year's playoff teams other than OKC... DAL, SA, and LAL are all old teams staring down the barrel of the compressed schedule, Kobe's demonic workouts notwithstanding. Denver has a good chance of winning the Chinese Basketball Association title. Portland is an organizational mess. New Orleans has, obviously, been gutted. Of the teams just on the outside of the playoffs, Houston is just a whatever team with little apparent upside, Phoenix is similar, Utah is in the New Orleans boat (too lazy to look up their record after trading Deron but it wasn't good).

Memphis is far from a sure thing, as you note, but this is going to be the weakest West we've seen in a long time.
   1227. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:10 PM (#4017262)
Already said it, but Memphis is not a top two or three team in the West unless Z-Bo can somehow repeat last season and Rudy Gay fits back in seamlessly AND the rest of their young roster improves or at least hold serve. That's a lot of "unless" for me.

Of the 7 teams that finished above MEM last year, SAS is old, LAL lost a crucial piece and are old, DAL lost a huge piece and is old, DEN could really use Jack Bauer's assistance, POR is not better than them, and NOH might be the worst team in the conference. I think MEM's move up the standing has less to do with them and more to do with what's going on around them.

EDIT: Guess I should have hit refresh.

Iman Shumpert winning RotY?

It was a weak draft and Shump is guaranteed to play a lot of minutes. Hopefully the coaching staff does for his 3PT shot whatever they did for Landry and Shawne Williams'.
   1228. steagles Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:13 PM (#4017263)
10. PHI
8. PHI
7. PHI
8. PHI
10. PHI
8. PHI



you know, it's gonna suck a big fat ####### egg if i'm wrong about this.



but still, i'm a believer. this team's gonna kick ass.
   1229. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#4017268)
[1226] and [1227] both make good points - and I don't hate Memphis, FWIW, I think they'll make the playoffs. I also haven't thought through my predictions yet and so I suppose there's a chance I end up with them 3rd or 4th myself. Still don't see them as true contenders, but then, I probably had them 11th in the West or something entering last year.
   1230. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#4017269)
but still, i'm a believer. this team's gonna kick ass.


I really don't intend to sound like a jackass (honestly) but I was assuming you've been joking about your confidence in the Sixers this year.
   1231. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:17 PM (#4017272)
More than anything, I still say Rose should improve this season - considering the jump he made last year, that might sound homerish, but there's a lot of specific things he can work on and get better.


I am a little worried that he'll improve his 3 point shot, or at least make better decisions. That would not be good for the rest of the league.
   1232. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:22 PM (#4017277)
I read some remarks from Thibodeau about Rose's improved post game yesterday. Given what we know about the man's work ethic and ability to improve specific aspects of his game he's focused on, it's not crazy to think he'll make a significant improvement or two this season.
   1233. Squash Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#4017278)
I'll double up andrewberg's predictions. The Clippers are going to make a ton of highlight reels, but I still think they look like a pretty good rather than great (or even good) team. Blake is fun to watch, but I'm not yet sold that's he's hugely valuable from a pure on-the-court standpoint just yet. He will of course improve, but how much? I have a sneaking suspicion he's a David Wright - more or less already fully formed. Not that that's a bad thing.

As a Warriors fan, I hope they bottom out and get a good draft pick this year, and I hope we get a great bounty of scrubs for Stephen Curry when we're forced to trade him.
   1234. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#4017281)
I read some remarks from Thibodeau about Rose's improved post game yesterday.

Kyle Korver also worked on his post game; he mentioned that he ends up being guarded by PGs a lot because the bigger guards switch onto Rose. So watch out defenses, because one of the Bulls' guards is going to take you into the post whether you like it or not.

Did LeBron work on his post game?
   1235. Maxwn Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#4017283)
FWIW, I am more worried about injuries with Zach than I am about him playing significantly worse if he's healthy. The way a lot of people talk about him, you would think he just dropped a 20-10 season out of nowhere last season. He's pretty much been that guy his entire career. The main differences you can pick out of the numbers are mostly on the defensive end and I'm not really sure that has as much to do with him as it does with the Grizzlies as a team being built around him and all his strengths and weaknesses.

If I'm right, I think it shows that players can have wildly different values depending on the situation. The Grizzlies took Randolph and built their system and team around him. To the extent that they have been and continue to be successful, it is because they have effectively leveraged the things that he does at an elite level and put players around him to cover for the things he doesn't do well.

Injuries are more worrisome to me. He's missed a fair amount of time over his career, but has been pretty healthy over the last 2 seasons. Regression on that front would not help the Grizzlies cause. If you want to be optimistic here, he spent the summer here in Memphis working with the strength and conditioning coach at U.Memphis, who's supposed to be some sort of hardcore fitness guru. At least from what I've seen, he does look to be in pretty great shape. I hope so, because if he does get hurt, the Grizzlies will have a very hard time replacing him.
   1236. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:32 PM (#4017289)
Did LeBron work on his post game?


He spent some time with Hakeem. Whether that was totally earnest work on developing his post game into a true weapon or partially PR-driven and undercommitted remains to be seen, but he did at least some work.
   1237. steagles Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#4017290)
I really don't intend to sound like a jackass (honestly) but I was assuming you've been joking about your confidence in the Sixers this year.


i think they're better than the knicks, better than the celtics. i know they're better than the hawks and better than the magic. i don't think people understand how good the individual parts of this team are, and i think people are underselling the importance of having the entire team back (and healthy) to start this season.
   1238. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#4017291)
I'll jump in on this. I'm putting a high priority on teams with little roster turnover and younger players (at least for the regular season).

West:
1. OKC
2. MEM Continuity and youth helps, at least for the regular season
3. DAL a year older, but I don't see any of the other teams as obviously better
4. LAC
5. LAL (but win first round playoff matchup)
6. SA
7. DEN
8. GS

9. PHX
10. HOU
11. POR
12. MIN
13. SAC
14. NO
15. UTH

East.
1. MIA (best record in the league)
2. CHI
3. ATL (continuity has to count for something)
4. NYK
5. BOS
6. PHI
7. ORL
8. NJ (Williams and Lopez is good enough to be first round cannon fodder)

9. MIL
10. IND Not sold on them for some reason.
11. DET
12. WAS
13. CHA
14. CLE
15. Tor

Conference Finals:
Dallas over Thunder
Heat over Bulls

Finals
Rematch; but Miami beats Dallas

MVP- LeBron
COY- Rick Adelman
6th Man- Harden
DPOY- Howard
ROY- Derrick Williams

All NBA:
1. Chris Paul
2. LeBron James
3. Kevin Durant
4. Blake Griffin
5. Dwight Howard
   1239. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#4017295)
i think they're better than the knicks, better than the celtics. i know they're better than the hawks and better than the magic. i don't think people understand how good the individual parts of this team are, and i think people are underselling the importance of having the entire team back to start this season.


Fair enough. I don't think- health taken into consideration- that they're better than any of those teams, but godspeed to 'em. I'm a big Doug Collins fan, and I'd like to see them make it work.
   1240. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#4017298)
Teams I'm most looking forward to watching:

-- Clippers, obvious reasons
-- Minnesota, Rubio + new coach + Derrick Williams + black comedy that is Michael Beasley's, uh, decision-making
-- Lakers, very interested to see what this personnel looks like outside the triangle and what Brown will do
-- Memphis, curious to see how they respond to success
-- Washington (for Wall and his potential leap as before)

May actually shell out and get League Pass this season.
   1241. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:39 PM (#4017299)
i think they're better than the knicks, better than the celtics. i know they're better than the hawks and better than the magic. i don't think people understand how good the individual parts of this team are, and i think people are underselling the importance of having the entire team back (and healthy) to start this season.

So you're saying 3rd in the conference? Yes, you're alone on that one.
   1242. steagles Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#4017305)
So you're saying 3rd in the conference? Yes, you're alone on that one.
well, no. if i said that i thought they were 3rd in the conference, that would mean that i thought the heat and the bulls were better than them.
   1243. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#4017306)
Did LeBron work on his post game?

He spent some time with Hakeem. Whether that was totally earnest work on developing his post game into a true weapon or partially PR-driven and undercommitted remains to be seen, but he did at least some work.


Wasn't this whole thing put to rest in an article displaying that LeBron has actually been one of the better post players in the league in terms of PPP and has increasingly gone to the post in recent years?
   1244. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:49 PM (#4017310)
May actually shell out and get League Pass this season.


Ditto, would be my first time. Anyone seen any price estimates yet?

The only things holding me back are 1, figuring out how to lie to my wife about why all of these extra games are on and 2, more importantly, the limited HD options. Or is that last one fixed?
   1245. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:51 PM (#4017314)
Blazers amnesty Roy.
   1246. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#4017317)
[1235] I agree with pretty much everything said here. FWIW, I looked up the stats and Zach's GP totals have been pretty good from '05-'06 to present: 74, 68, 69, 50, 81, 75.
   1247. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#4017318)
Anyone seen any price estimates yet?

Full price, sucker.
   1248. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#4017323)
Ditto, would be my first time. Anyone seen any price estimates yet?

Here you go.

The only things holding me back are 1, figuring out how to lie to my wife about why all of these extra games are on and 2, more importantly, the limited HD options. Or is that last one fixed?

Extra games as a show of goodwill to the fans for the lockout. I have Cablevision, which doesn't get many games in HD on League Pass so I was planning to try and hook up my Macbook to my tv and stream games that way since the League Pass Broadband does have HD.

EDIT: [1247] The article I liked to, which was posted after yours, indicates there will be a price change.
   1249. Maxwn Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:01 PM (#4017327)
Full price, sucker.

NY Times on League Pass Price

This post from the NY Times Off The Dribble blog disagrees with the way that Ball Don't Lie is characterizing the league pass pricing. I've never bought it so I have no idea who is right, though the NY times piece seems to have more actual information than Dwyer's.

Edit: Damn, coke to NJ.
   1250. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:04 PM (#4017330)
Good to hear.

---

Nets amnesty Travis Outlaw.
   1251. APNY Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:05 PM (#4017331)
It's $169 through Directv, i assume it's the same with all providers.
   1252. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#4017332)
Yeah, the big win for me is that the league pass this year (as noted by NJ) comes w/ streaming internet and mobile as well... being on the West Coast naturally I will still be at work during a lot of games I might want to watch.

Still debating though. Could be a big time suck. And I don't have a lot of charitable feelings towards the NBA right now.
   1253. andrewberg Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:21 PM (#4017344)
I think the 5 team league pass broadband is only $109. I am leaning toward buying that. Going to get the Wolves, then probably Miami, OKC, Portland, and maybe the Clippers. Gotta tilt west since that is when I can watch the games.
   1254. andrewberg Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:22 PM (#4017345)
Anyone know if LP broadband will work on my ipad? that might clinch it for me.
   1255. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:22 PM (#4017346)
well, no. if i said that i thought they were 3rd in the conference, that would mean that i thought the heat and the bulls were better than them.

So...which of those teams are the Sixers better than?
   1256. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:36 PM (#4017358)
I think the 5 team league pass broadband is only $109.
I was thinking the same thing, since I watch almost all my non-Laker/Clipper games online and I don't want to buy the whole package this year.

Miami, OKC, Memphis... who else?

Anyone know if LP broadband will work on my ipad? that might clinch it for me.
You probably need to buy the LP Mobile package for that. It's only to be had as part of the full LP package.
   1257. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:39 PM (#4017360)
Miami, OKC, Memphis... who else?


I hear the Sixers might be going places this year.
   1258. steagles Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:45 PM (#4017369)
So...which of those teams are the Sixers better than?
this year, i'll take the sixers to beat either of them in a 7 game series. over an 82 (or a 66) game season, well, i think i'll just wait and see.
Miami, OKC, Memphis... who else?
LAC would be interesting. MIN could be fun to watch with rubio and williams. DEN has nene, gallinari, and lawson, plus george karl, so they're likely to be a good watch. golden state has curry and ellis, phoenix has nash.
I hear the Sixers might be going places this year.
hehe.
   1259. Jimmy P Posted: December 15, 2011 at 10:54 PM (#4017377)
Miami, OKC, Memphis... who else?

I'd watch the Knicks.
   1260. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:07 PM (#4017387)
I should note that I already get all the Lakers and Clipper games through my normal cable package, so I'm really getting 7 teams. Lakers, Clips, Heat, Griz, Thunder...

I'm not a Knicks fan. Being forced to choose, I'll pass on Boston. I don't want to watch any sorry-ass teams (you know, like the Sixers). Hmm.
   1261. steagles Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:11 PM (#4017390)
Conor Orr: Travis Outlaw waived by Nets via amnesty clause: 6-9 forward's $7 million annual salary comes off salary cap http://bit.ly/s9Fufa 3 minutes ago


so, that's bell, davis, billups, roy, arenas, and now outlaw.
   1262. smileyy Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:15 PM (#4017393)
FWIW, I'm loving the likely irrational positive fanboy-ism, STEAGLES.
   1263. steagles Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:16 PM (#4017397)
I don't want to watch any sorry-ass teams (you know, like the Sixers).
nah, i completely understand. you're too distracted by shiny things to comprehend the juggernaut that's been assembled under doug collins.


i'm fairly sure people will begin to take notice when they jump out of the gate and go 9-0 to open the season.
   1264. Maxwn Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:18 PM (#4017398)
I should note that I already get all the Lakers and Clipper games through my normal cable package, so I'm really getting 7 teams. Lakers, Clips, Heat, Griz, Thunder...

I'm not a Knicks fan. Being forced to choose, I'll pass on Boston. I don't want to watch any sorry-ass teams (you know, like the Sixers). Hmm.

Dallas, just for Dirk.
   1265. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:23 PM (#4017401)
FWIW, I'm loving the likely irrational positive fanboy-ism, STEAGLES.

FWIW, I am enjoying it as well, though you can take that "likely" down.
   1266. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:24 PM (#4017404)
I'm not a Knicks fan. Being forced to choose, I'll pass on Boston. I don't want to watch any sorry-ass teams (you know, like the Sixers). Hmm.


Minnesota (surely the official team of BBTF) is going to be pretty interesting to watch. A lot of people seem to be intrigued by Indiana though I personally don't see it. As long as Nash is on Phoenix they will be worth watching.

A good way to pick might be the quality of announcers, not sure what the consensus is there (I haven't watched enough local broadcast teams to really know).

And in last place, your DEEEEE-troit Pistons.
   1267. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:28 PM (#4017410)
A good way to pick might be the quality of announcers, not sure what the consensus is there (I haven't watched enough local broadcast teams to really know).

So no Spurs games for anybody, huh?
   1268. dirk Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:44 PM (#4017416)
i have a couple spots open for my yahoo fantasy basketball league, draft 12/18 at 11:15. if you're interested let me know. i'd be happy to have some primate roundball fans, so this seemed like a good place to ask.
   1269. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#4017421)
And in last place, your DEEEEE-troit Pistons.

He's just the PA guy. I still say the Bulls announcers are the worst, even worse than the Spurs. In case you need a reminder...
   1270. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 15, 2011 at 11:54 PM (#4017422)
He's just the PA guy. I still say the Bulls announcers are the worst, even worse than the Spurs. In case you need a reminder...


Oh, poor post construction, I just meant that the Pistons look to me like the worst team for your viewing pleasure this year.
   1271. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:10 AM (#4017427)
KCJHoop: Rip on last season: "I never had an issue with Coach Kuester." Hmmmm.


Look, Rip, I already don't like you. I hate your stupid face mask. I hate your stupid side dribble during FTAs. I hate your face. But we're forced to get along the next couple of years, and if everything goes right, we'll both be happy. But please, for the love of Stacey King, please stop being a #########.
   1272. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:18 AM (#4017431)
Do people think Rip is going to be much of an improvement for the Bulls? I saw an article that said the defensive drop from Bogans to Hamilton more or less outweighed the offensive improvement, though I'm sure other articles have different perspectives. (Mostly I haven't put too much thought into it.) What are opinions here on the move?
   1273. andrewberg Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#4017437)
That is a tough call. I think the team is better constructed to deal with a defensive zero. Teams just did not guard Bogans, which had a cascade effect on the offense, and i think it particularly hurt Boozer, Noah, and Gibson who often had another guy roaming around the inside. Rose could have been hurt by it, but he transcended the problems. Defensively, the Bulls are really good at rotating. Maybe there will be more issues with two guys struggling to stay with their men (Rip an Boozer), maybe Noah and Deng are good enough to keep covering that up. Either way, I think Thibs's mindset is defensive-oriented enough that he will not play those two together if it becomes defensively untenable. In other words, if his improvement on offense equals his loss on defense relative to Bogans, I think the secondary effects on his teammates are positive given the style and skills of the rest of their most common lineups. Bulls people will have a better perspective on a lot of that.
   1274. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:29 AM (#4017438)
Am I right in thinking there's a cheaper equivalent of League Pass that lets you watch all of a single team's games? I frankly find it impossible to not get bored by a basketball game if I'm not familiar with how at least one of the teams plays, so I wouldn't use the full League Pass, I would just watch my adopted favorite team the Grizzlies featuring Sam Young.
   1275. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:30 AM (#4017440)
Do people think Rip is going to be much of an improvement for the Bulls? I saw an article that said the defensive drop from Bogans to Hamilton more or less outweighed the offensive improvement, though I'm sure other articles have different perspectives. (Mostly I haven't put too much thought into it.) What are opinions here on the move?


I like Zach Lowe's take. I don't think it really is that much of a drop defensively from Bogans to Rip; I haven't seen that particular article, but Brewer was better than Bogans defensively last year (both individually and as a team defender). I don't know what Rip has left offensively; it's easy to blame his shooting struggles the last couple of years on his teammates as he's not much of an initiator either, but those declining percentages may very well be real and significant decline. He's never been a great 3pt shooter, and that more than anything is what the Bulls need and is why their offense looked so much better with Korver on the floor last year. But he's in the same ball park as Bogans in that department. The real difference will come if his mid range game will look anything like it did during his prime. It's another shooter, and another person that can help relieve pressure on Rose when traps and double teams come at him. His game is similar to Deng's, and he'll be used a lot like he was during his Detroit peak, curling off screens and dragging his defender all over the court. It's similar to how the Bulls used Korver last year and the C's use Allen, minus the range. Those limitations are why most of us preferred Jason Richardson, who may or may not have been out of the Bulls price range*. IMO, he undoubtedly helps, and I do expect him to be better here than he was the last couple in Detroit. How much better is the question. Peak Rip would probably push the Bulls ahead of Miami, IMO, so whether or not the Bulls get by Miami will be determined by how much he has left because he's the key to the Heat defense being unable to use both LBJ and Wade to trap Rose. So to sum up, yes, he's definitely an improvement - hell, just playing Brewer and Korver more would have been an improvement on Bogans' minutes - but he's not any sort of guaranteed answer.

*He signed for more than the full MLE, but the Bulls never offered him the full MLE so we'll never know whether or not he would have taken it; there were rumors for a while that he valued winning over a small monetary difference - then again, the extra $5mil plus the lack of income tax in FL may have been more than enough to change his mind. I understand why the Bulls wouldn't want to offer him the full MLE (4 years is a long time for a guy on the wrong side of 30 and for a team that values flexibility), but we all know that was just Reinsdorf being cheap and worrying about the tax in 2 years.
   1276. andrewberg Posted: December 16, 2011 at 12:36 AM (#4017442)
Oh also- to piggyback on what Moses said, the difference in activity between Bogans and Rip is so enormous that it will have an impact on both ends. You can't stop chasing him off of those screens, so if Lebron or Wade has to guard him (or even Battier, putting Lebron on Deng), that probably increases their defensive activity by a pretty meaningful margin, which anyone will say has an effect on offense too.
   1277. madvillain Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#4017452)
Look, Rip, I already don't like you. I hate your stupid face mask. I hate your stupid side dribble during FTAs. I hate your face. But we're forced to get along the next couple of years, and if everything goes right, we'll both be happy. But please, for the love of Stacey King, please stop being a #########.


I hated Rip as much as anyone when he was a member of the over-entitled whiny Pistons teams, but he was in a no win situation last year. The team basically mutinied under Kuester, and for good reason -- the guy isn't a legit NBA coach. I compare it to the situation under The Black in Chicago when Noah was labelled a bit of a troublemaker. Guys respect coaches that can actually coach (for the most part), and Thibs can certainly do that.

Rip said today that he was "just here to have Derrick's back" and that "he would do whatever role the coach wants", including playing reduced minutes if needed. He said he was in great shape and was looking forward to making guys work on the defensive end.

_______________

I don't think it's the greatest move in the world, and I think Jamal Crawford probably would have been a slightly better fit, but I don't think it can be overstated how different Chicago will be with a legit 2 guard out there. Rip isn't the greatest 3 point shooter, but he can certainly drain the open corner 3, and unlike Bogans, his man will actually guard him out there. Bogans was left unguarded, even when he was in the corner for the short 3. This will open things up, not even just for Rose, but for Boozer and Noah as well.

As for defense, I don't think we will notice any dropoff. Boozer is actually in basketball shape this year (really, in the media day photos, he looked quite fit) and will be able to help and recover better. Bogans was constantly fouling and playing "body check" style defense, which was effective for the most part but I can do without the constant fouling.

I am excited. Chicago should cruise to around 50 wins and once again meet Miami in the ECF. This time though they are a year older and have a better team to matchup against Miami. Wade has always been bothered by Rip and Boozer and Noah were both battling injuries in that series that limited them.

Assuming the nuclear bomb of a derrick rose serious injury doesn't go off, I can see Chicago knocking off the Heat in 6 or 7, or at least giving them a better series than last year.

___________________

Meanwhile you've got some idiots online complaining about the Bulls probably keeping John Lucas III and Scalabrine as the last guys on the roster. Really? The 12th and 13th guys are meaningless. You just want good lock room guys that practice hard. If you are in a situation where the 12th and 13th men are actually seeing meaningful minutes your roster is so decimated by injuries it wouldn't matter who they are, you're screwed anyways.
   1278. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:17 AM (#4017460)
Sebastian Pruiti is going to be writing for Grantland.
   1279. steagles Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:36 AM (#4017467)
Jorge Sierra: Source tells HoopsHype Josh Howard has indeed agreed in principal to a deal with the Jazz. Broussard reported first. about 5 minutes ago

Alan Hahn: Nets officially announce signing of Shawne Williams to a multi-year deal. #Knicks made a second run at Shawne today but couldn't match. #fb about 9 minutes ago

Emiliano Carchia: Fuenlabrada informed that FIBA didn't give the transfer to Bobcats Draftee Bismack Biyombo about 2 hours ago
   1280. madvillain Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:37 AM (#4017469)
Wojo has his usual well stated but slightly hyperbolic writeup about the league's conflict of interest in the Billups amnesty bidding.

The league has a credibility problem because it owns the Hornets. When it sells them, it won't.
   1281. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 01:51 AM (#4017471)
[1278] Really happy for Pruiti. Feel like I learned more about NBA basketball reading his stuff than I have ever before.
   1282. steagles Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:56 AM (#4017493)
Sean Meagher: New on OregonLive: Free agent forward Craig Smith says on Twitter that he's headed to the Trail Blazers http://bit.ly/w49D6R now

Tom Haberstroh: Just now setting in that Mario Chalmers got paid $12 million to backup Norris Cole for the next three years. about 12 minutes ago

Chris Perkins: If Norris Cole is most impressive non Big 3 player tonite, Dexter Pittman is most unimpressive. He's got work to do. about 13 minutes ago

Brian Windhorst: Norris Cole has 19 points, 3 asst, 5 rebs, 3 steals and his team has trounced 1st unit with Wade, LeBron & Bosh so far. about 14 minutes ago

   1283. Jimmy P Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:32 AM (#4017502)
so, that's bell, davis, billups, roy, arenas, and now outlaw.

James Posey was supposedly anmestied by Indiana.

Bismack Boyimbo lost his court case and will not be able to play in the NBA this year.

And, supposedly, Mike Brown has told Metta World Peace he will be the 6th man on the Lakers. I guess Barnes is starting, then?

In the totally ridiculous, Stephen A and Bucher say that they don't it'd be too farfetched if Kobe asked for a trade. I'll believe that when I see it.
   1284. steagles Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:54 AM (#4017509)
Sam Amick: Troubling news for Kings F Chuck Hayes: team announces " stress echo test...revealed an abnormality which will require further testing." 4 minutes ago
   1285. GregD Posted: December 16, 2011 at 03:58 AM (#4017511)
Sam Amick: Troubling news for Kings F Chuck Hayes: team announces " stress echo test...revealed an abnormality which will require further testing." 4 minutes ago
Wow. Is his contract official? It must be if he's playing. That's a $20 million piece of timing for him if it turns out to be a significant health program.
   1286. madvillain Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:13 AM (#4017517)
Wow. Is his contract official? It must be if he's playing. That's a $20 million piece of timing for him if it turns out to be a significant health program.


I am absolutely shocked a great ownership group like the Maloofs wouldn't give him a full battery of heart, cardio, neuro, etc tests before signing him to a big contract.

I guess his contract is insured so they are just going to lose his services, not the money, right?
   1287. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:16 AM (#4017519)
Really happy for Pruiti. Feel like I learned more about NBA basketball reading his stuff than I have ever before.

QFT.

SCHOENE's out ... (for winter?)
A *bunch* of guys are missing from the first batch (mostly scrubs, mind you) though. Like >100.

Posey was amnestied and cleared waivers, as I understand it.
   1288. Norcan Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:21 AM (#4017523)
What is going on with NBA players and heart troubles? Not just Hayes but Jeff Green also showed something troubling during his stress test and failed his physical. The rumor is that it's heart-related. Ainge's comments that the nature of the news depends on perspective didn't brighten things up. Chris Forsberg speculated that the immediate signing of Sasha Pavlovic after the stress test to a guaranteed one year contract was related to their concerns with Green. Pavlovic played on three separate ten day contacts last season and didn't exactly impress as a Celtic so giving him an one-year deal was fairly odd.
   1289. kpelton Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:25 AM (#4017526)
You mean the end-of-bench guys, Der K 2? Those players are not projected to play any minutes within SCHOENE, so thus no fantasy projection whatsoever.
   1290. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:35 AM (#4017529)
Basically. Some of these are higher profile scrubs (Speights, Bogans, D.Stevenson, etc... - many (not all) of these bigger minute guys are still free agents). [the >100 # was the # of people in the schoene tab, not in the projection tab. i don't care about fantasy rankings, i just like to see patterns in who has a better/worse projection than i'd first expect.]
Accordingly, I'd like to see projections for everybody (giving those guys some small number of minutes), but it's your show... you know what you're doing.

Hayes: he's not retiring yet, let's slow down a bit.

Heart and basketball.
   1291. tshipman Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:40 AM (#4017530)
I'd like to point out that people predicting the Clippers to make the playoffs seem to be forgetting that Vinny Del Negro is the head coach.

Eastern Conference:
1. MIA
2. CHI
3. ORL
4. NYK
5. BOS
6. PHI
7. MIL
8. ATL

Western Conference:
1. OKC
2. LAL
3. SAS
4. DEN
5. DAL
6. HOU
7. MEM
8. LAC

Some general things I think about the NBA:

1. I don't see how people think that Memphis is going to improve from last year.
2. San Antonio could easily finish anywhere along the ladder in the West. They strike me as a really volatile team.
3. VDN will cost the Clippers at least 10 wins. No one on that team plays defense besides Paul.
4. I think the shortened schedule really helps Miami. LeBron/Wade can trade off games in ways that other teams can't.
5. I don't know what to think about Orlando/New Jersey.
6. Golden State might be good next year.
   1292. Norcan Posted: December 16, 2011 at 04:55 AM (#4017533)
I'd like to point out that people predicting the Clippers to make the playoffs seem to be forgetting that Vinny Del Negro is the head coach.


Can I point out that Vinny Del Negro made the playoffs his first year as the Bulls coach? Can I also point out that Paul and the Hornets made the playoffs last year with a vastly inferior roster to the one that Paul is currently on? I think they're a shoo-in for the playoffs but unlikely to win the championship. If they disappoint I think it's going to be because of defense. I don't think DeAndre's shown the basketball IQ to be a great all around defensive center, Blake's defense is still a work in progress, Chauncey doesn't profile well as a fulltime 2-guard and Caron's defense was never great and had slipped before his knee injury. Paul I think is great. He's super feisty, makes it nearly impossible to dribble near him and is as good a flopper in the league. One thing that could make them play better defense than their talent is that their turnovers are going to be low.
   1293. kpelton Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:11 AM (#4017539)
Bogans got zeroed out until they figure out whether they're going to waive him or not. I had a tough time deciding what to do with the number of mid-tier FAs this year. I eventually settled on leaving in everyone unsigned projected to 1,000 minutes based on last year's MPG. That's why D-Steve didn't make the cut.

Everyone will, of course, be in the book.
   1294. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:31 AM (#4017546)
I can wait for the book. :)

Think the Butler pickup was a mistake but the Clips look like a playoff team to me.
   1295. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 05:50 AM (#4017554)
People doubting LAC and MEM seem, to me, to be overrating the quality of the West as a whole.
   1296. tshipman Posted: December 16, 2011 at 06:47 AM (#4017574)
People doubting LAC and MEM seem, to me, to be overrating the quality of the West as a whole.


The West has:

The last 3 NBA champs, four of the last 5, 5 of the last 7 and 10 out of the last 14.
The 9 seeds the last three years in the West would have been the 6, 8 and 5 seeds in the East respectively
Had a winning record vs. the East in 10 of the last 11 years
   1297. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 16, 2011 at 08:04 AM (#4017582)
I'll try the tier-based approach:

East
1. MIA
2. CHI

3. BOS

4. PHI
5. NYK
6. ATL
7. IND
8. ORL

9. MIL
10. NJ
11. WAS

12. DET
13. CHA
14. CLE
15. TOR

West
1. OKC

2. MEM
3. DAL
4. SA
5. LAL
6. LAC

7. DEN
8. HOU
9. POR
10. PHO

11. GS
12. UTA
13. MIN

14. SAC
15. NO

I'm clearly drinking the Kool-Aid on the Grizzlies and Sixers. I agree with those who've said that some combination of continuity, depth, and age/fitness will be major factors this year. The Grizzlies have their top 9 players returning, and none of them is over 30 (with the possible exception of Sam Young). They also lose Thabeet's unfathomably bad contributions from last year, which is the ultimate addition by subtraction. The Sixers are returning everyone from last year's rotation, they're young and deep, and hopefully Doug Collins has learned not to give Nocioni 1000 minutes again.

Also, I think that Dwight Howard will be traded to the Lakers at some point, which is why Orlando is down in the #8 spot. The Lakers simply have more to offer than the Nets, and the Magic won't want to risk losing Dwight for nothing. My idea is a trade centered around Pau to Minnesota, Bynum and Derrick Williams to Orlando, and Dwight plus a couple big men and some contract filler to LA. For example, adding Beasley, Pekovic/Miller, Duhon, and Q to the Lakers would work salary-wise. Pau would be a natural fit in Minnesota with Rubio, Love, and Adelman, and it's hard to imagine Orlando getting a better combination of performance and potential than Bynum and Derrick Williams. In addition, Beasley has actually been a fairly good PF (and a subpar SF) throughout his career according to the net production stats at 82games. The Wolves can't realistically play him at PF without having terrible defensive lineup, but the Lakers with Howard certainly could. After the trade, the Lakers would still have the Odom TPE to add a significant player before the deadline, the Wolves would have a shot at the playoffs for the first time since KG, and Orlando would still have a marketable team even without Howard.
   1298. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 16, 2011 at 10:54 AM (#4017597)
The West has:

The last 3 NBA champs, four of the last 5, 5 of the last 7 and 10 out of the last 14.
The 9 seeds the last three years in the West would have been the 6, 8 and 5 seeds in the East respectively
Had a winning record vs. the East in 10 of the last 11 years


This would be mean more to me if we were just replaying past seasons.
   1299. King Mekong Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:32 PM (#4017632)
I want to get this in before the flip.

West

1. OKC

2. DEN
3. MEM
4. SAS
5. DAL
6. LAC
7. LAL

8. HOU
9. POR
10. MIN
11. UTA

12. GS
13. PHO
14. SAC
15. NO


East
1. MIA
2. CHI

3. NYK
4. BOS

5. ATL
6. PHI

7. IND
8. NJ
9. MIL

10. ORL

11. WAS

12. DET
13. CHA
14. CLE
15. TOR

I think Nash gets traded to NYK, Dwight to NJ/BRK, I think Portland gets nothing from Oden, Kobe gets injured; I think Denver gets all its players back from China and Gallo goes gangbusters

COY George Karl
ROY Kawhi Leonard
DPOY Dwight
MVP LeBron

RD 1

1. OKC over HOU (4 - 0)
2. DEN over LAL (4 - 1)
3. MEM loses LAC (4-3)
4. SAS over DAL (4-2)

1. MIA over NJ (4 - 2)
2. CHI over IND (4 - 0)
3. NYK over PHI (4 - 1)
4. BOS over ATL (4 - 3)

RD 2

OKC over SAS (4 - 2)
DEN loses LAC (4 - 3)

MIA over NYK (4 - 2)
CHI over BOS (4 - 1)

SEMIS

OKC over LAC (4 - 1)

MIA over CHI (4 - 3)

MIA over OKC (4 - 2)
   1300. Spivey Posted: December 16, 2011 at 02:56 PM (#4017642)
Just to break up the long line of OKC being ranked #1...

West

1. DAL
2. OKC
3. LAL
4. SAS
5. MEM
6. DEN
7. LAC
8. POR


East

1. MIA
2. CHI
3. NYK
4. BOS
5. ATL
6. NJ
7. IND
8. PHI



DAL over POR
OKC over LAC
LAL over DEN
SAS over MEM

MIA over PHI
CHI over IND
NJ over NYK
BOS over ATL

DAL over SAS
OKC over LAL

MIA over BOS
CHI over NJ

OKC over DAL
MIA over CHI

MIA over OKC

Also, I didn't realize it when I was doing the seeding, but my seeding leads to a ton of rematches from last year's playoffs.
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