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Friday, December 02, 2011

NBA THREAD DECEMBER: POST-LOCKOUT

With the lockout over, I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the NBA, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: fractional reserve banking, and Tim Tebow.

robinred Posted: December 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM | 3254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1401. Kurt Posted: December 18, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#4018960)
Does anyone want to fill the last spot in the fantasy league? If not, I'll find someone to do the draft and possibly let someone here take over the team after the draft.
   1402. Kurt Posted: December 18, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#4018976)
Not sure how 1401 got posted - sorry.

Anyway, glad you found someone else to fill that last spot.
   1403. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 18, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#4018981)
Baron Davis to the Knicks. As someone on Knickerblogger said, "I think the Knicks MVP should be the guy who came up with the amnesty provision." I think this is a significant move and I fully on board with it.
   1404. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 18, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#4018993)
Consensus BBTF Predictions
Western Conference (average order of finish / % of respondents picking to make playoffs)
1. Oklahoma City (1.07 / 100)
2T. San Antonio (3.67 / 100)
2T. Dallas (3.67 / 100)
4. Memphis (4.00 / 100)
5. LA Lakers (4.53 / 100)
6. LA Clippers (5.40 / 100)
7. Denver (6.60 / 93)
8. Portland (8.20 / 60)
--------------------
9. Houston (8.80 / 33)
10. Golden State (10.87 / 7)
11. Phoenix (11.07 / 0)
12. Minnesota (12.07 / 7)
13. Utah (12.53 / 0)
14. Sacramento (13.27 / 0)
15. New Orleans (14.27 / 0)

Most disagreement: Denver (from 2nd to 11th)
Most agreement Oklahoma City (14 of 15 picked OKC 1st)

Eastern Conference
1. Miami (1.20 / 100)
2. Chicago (1.93 / 100)
3T. Boston (3.80 / 100)
3T. New York (3.80 / 100)
5. Atlanta (5.47 / 100)
6. Orlando (6.73 / 73)
7. Philadelphia (7.20 / 87)
8. Indiana (7.67 / 73)
-------------------
9. New Jersey (8.93 / 40)
10. Milwaukee (9.53 / 13)
11. Washington (10.93 / 13)
12. Detroit (12.20 / 0)
13. Charlotte (13.00 / 0)
14. Toronto (13.53 / 0)
15. Cleveland (14.07 / 0)

Most disagreement: Orlando (largely due to different assumptions about Howard I think)
Most agreement: Charlotte (everyone between 12th and 14th)

12 of 15 posters have Miami 1st, remaining 3 have Chicago 1st and Miami 2nd, only 2 people do not have MIA-CHI as top 2 (1 BOS and 1 NYK).

Playoffs (13 people predicted):
Winner: MIA (9), CHI (3), OKC (1)
Runner-up: OKC (9), MEM (2), DAL (1), CHI (1)
ECF Loser: CHI (7), MIA (3), BOS (2), NYK (1)
WCF Loser: MEM (4,) DAL (3), LAC (2), LAL (2), SAS (1), OKC (1)
   1405. robinred Posted: December 18, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#4018994)
It is a very reasonable gamble, some upside, minimal downside, as it would have been for the Lakers or the Heat. Calling it a "significant move" is a stretch. Davis' numbers were actually pretty decent last year when he played, but his 3P% in Cleveland was out of line with his career numbers. He is 32 and while it is certainly possible that he exaggerated his back issues, it is equally possible he didn't, and that is why the Cleveland FO decided to change their minds and get rid of him.

He also has other baggage and is well past his prime. There is certainly a chance that he will play 20 MPG and help the Knicks. Lakers fans were divided about him, but I wanted them to sign him. But I don't think it changes New York's outlook very much.
   1406. GregD Posted: December 18, 2011 at 10:23 PM (#4019023)
He also has other baggage and is well past his prime. There is certainly a chance that he will play 20 MPG and help the Knicks. Lakers fans were divided about him, but I wanted them to sign him. But I don't think it changes New York's outlook very much.
I guess it wouldn't change their outlook a lot because there's so much uncertainty. If--big if--he plays well, it would change their outlook a lot, as PG is by far their weakest position. An average backcourt with their frontcourt would be a darn good team. Toney D, however, doesn't really look like he could be part of an average backcourt.
   1407. robinred Posted: December 18, 2011 at 10:39 PM (#4019026)
he plays well, it would change their outlook a lot


In spite of his rep, his numbers have actually been pretty consistent the last two years. He got a PER bump in Cleveland because he hit 41.4% of his 3s.

But even if he does the same thing he has been doing, it doesn't get them to the level of Chicago and Miami. One can make a case for New York as #3 in the East now, which, considering where they were, is a pretty big deal. But Davis isn't a game-changer. The Hamilton/Bogans upgrade is just as big or bigger as a potential Douglas/Davis upgrade, and the Knicks are not a young team at all.

I can see why New York fans are excited--getting Chandler was a big deal, and the dark ages are over. But they are going to need more than Baron Davis to take the next step.
   1408. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 18, 2011 at 10:57 PM (#4019031)
   1409. Squash Posted: December 18, 2011 at 11:04 PM (#4019033)
Warriors agreed to trade Lou Amundson to Indiana Pacers for Brandon Rush. Deal official next Monday.

I have an odd love for fringe trades in the NBA and MLB, and this is the very definition of one.

That Knicks team they're assembling is starting to seem oddly like a late-90s squad to me, when we hadn't yet figured out that volume shooters and poor defenders, and yay the combination of both, weren't actually nearly as valuable as their raw PPG numbers would indicate.
   1410. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 18, 2011 at 11:12 PM (#4019036)
I have an odd love for fringe trades in the NBA and MLB, and this is the very definition of one.
i wonder if indiana offered rush to the sixers. i would have been really happy to pull him for speights.
   1411. robinred Posted: December 18, 2011 at 11:13 PM (#4019037)
Well, that is why adding Chandler was such a good move--he is a low-volume, high-efficiency, team D anchor--he complements Anthony and Stoudemire perfectly.

As to the larger issue, that is sort of the long-standing argument--volume/efficiency, as Pelton has talked about a few times when he has been here.

To be clear, I think the Knicks have a pretty good team. The second tier in the East is a little convoluted. Baron Davis will not IMO be a trump card at that table.
   1412. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 18, 2011 at 11:33 PM (#4019043)
Mark Heisler: OH, AND IN THE WORLD AT LARGE, TROY MURPHY, ANOTHER NICE PICKUP FOR LAKES. He and Kapono should upgrade shooting, which needed one about 5 minutes ago

Ethan J. Skolnick: If u think Tim Tebow is just a media topic.... The latest Tebow debate just occurred in Heat locker room. LeBron very pro-Tebow, as u know. 4 minutes ago

Royce Young: Grizzlies' Arthur suffers "serious Achilles injury," http://tinyurl.com/bluavlc about 11 minutes ago

Zach Lowe: Love you, SVG MT@Ira Winderman Magic carry a 21-gm preseason win streak into tonight. Said Van Gundy ,"One of the great streaks in sports." about 15 minutes ago

Ira Winderman: By contrast, of the Packers' steak ending, Stan Van Gundy said, "That might have been a little more meaningful." about 33 minutes ago
   1413. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 19, 2011 at 01:19 AM (#4019061)
It is a very reasonable gamble, some upside, minimal downside, as it would have been for the Lakers or the Heat. Calling it a "significant move" is a stretch. Davis' numbers were actually pretty decent last year when he played, but his 3P% in Cleveland was out of line with his career numbers. He is 32 and while it is certainly possible that he exaggerated his back issues, it is equally possible he didn't, and that is why the Cleveland FO decided to change their minds and get rid of him.

I'd say it's significant, if only because of how bad the Knicks back court depth is right now. Even if he's not great, he's going to help them survive the regular season. He's got more left than Mike Bibby without a doubt, and Bibby was looking at 20 minutes or so a night before this. As you know, there's something to Baron's game when he's motivated, and I'd have to think this is a situation that will motivate him - much more than anywhere he's been in a while. Obviously Knicks fans shouldn't - and I'm sure the ones here don't - expect him to be peak Davis. Now if you're talking playoff matchups, I agree - he's not going to help them beat the big 3 in the East. As for whether or not his back mysteriously heals, I'd like to say I called it (but it was an easy prediction).

i was a really huge fan of daniel orton when he came out of kentucky last year. either i was wrong about his potential (which is definitely possible, considering his limited usage as a freshman at UK) or (and this would be my guess) between the knee surgery and being locked out of team facilities, he's not in anywhere near peak condition.

Nothing personal, but I'd say you were wrong about his potential. Like a lot of front office NBA types, you have a tendency to overrate centers.

----

Bulls give up 32 in the 1st quarter and then 54 the rest of the game, winning 95-84. Just a strange game, for one thing it was the most intense pre season game I've ever seen. There is def a little bad blood between Chicago and Indy lingering from their playoff series. The officials were in pre season mode as well, calling every foul possible. Just a hard game to watch. Rose had two fouls before the 10 minute mark and at one point in the 1st quarter Rose, Boozer and Noah all had 2 or more fouls.

Boozer looked like crap, again, but whatever, it's preseason, I take nothing except how rookies look and Jimmy Butler looked good. Looks like he'll have a long career in the league, won't ever be a starter probably, but as a backup 2/3 that can defend either position, knock down the open jumper, and even play off the bounce a bit.


It was oddly intense, and oddly officiated, but that just made it clear that Stacey and Neil were in mid-season form. God, they're f'in terrible. And it reminded me of how much I f'in hate Hansbrough*. Boozer looks in good shape, so that's something.

*Which reminds me, why the hell hasn't the NBA revised the charge rule? Why are they calling it like college officials. At least twice, Pyscho T jumped in front of guys who were moving away from the basket and drew the offensive foul. Disregarding the fact that he wasn't close to set on either, it's just not a foul or a good defensive play in my opinion, even if there's enough gray area in the rulebook that allows it.
   1414. andrewberg Posted: December 19, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#4019062)
Ethan J. Skolnick: If u think Tim Tebow is just a media topic.... The latest Tebow debate just occurred in Heat locker room. LeBron very pro-Tebow, as u know. 4 minutes ago


They could not have less in common
   1415. robinred Posted: December 19, 2011 at 01:36 AM (#4019071)
As for whether or not his back mysteriously heals, I'd like to say I called it (but it was an easy prediction).


I will believe that when I see him on the floor. And yes, I mostly meant playoff matchups. That is the game the Knicks are playing now.
   1416. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 01:38 AM (#4019072)
But even if he does the same thing he has been doing, it doesn't get them to the level of Chicago and Miami. One can make a case for New York as #3 in the East now, which, considering where they were, is a pretty big deal. But Davis isn't a game-changer. The Hamilton/Bogans upgrade is just as big or bigger as a potential Douglas/Davis upgrade, and the Knicks are not a young team at all.

I can see why New York fans are excited--getting Chandler was a big deal, and the dark ages are over. But they are going to need more than Baron Davis to take the next step.


For me the outlook has changed in the sense that I think Davis puts them even with or ahead of Boston. The Knicks' (new) biggest weakness was DWTDD's passing/court vision deficiencies and:

Davis had the most valuable assists in the league last season, and it wasn't even close. Among players with at least 300 assists, Davis' average assist was worth .841 points, well ahead of the league average of .667. And lest you think that was all from having Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan slamming down dunks, consider that Davis' assist value didn't change at all after the trade to Cleveland. More than half of Davis' assists were layups or dunks, according to Hoopdata.com, compared to the league average of 38 percent
-Hollinger
   1417. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 01:42 AM (#4019075)
That Knicks team they're assembling is starting to seem oddly like a late-90s squad to me, when we hadn't yet figured out that volume shooters and poor defenders, and yay the combination of both, weren't actually nearly as valuable as their raw PPG numbers would indicate.

Huh? By my count this only applies to Melo, unless I'm missing something.
   1418. andrewberg Posted: December 19, 2011 at 01:52 AM (#4019077)
Shawn Marion making a bid for a worst NBA haircut with a bright gold receding mini afro look.

Okc very out of sync early, Haywood looking semi spry.
   1419. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 02:23 AM (#4019089)
Nothing personal, but I'd say you were wrong about his potential. Like a lot of front office NBA types, you have a tendency to overrate centers.
i'd definitely agree with that. i was salivating last night watching golden state because they were playing jeremy tyler and ekpe udoh alongside each other in the 4th quarter. i'm definitely a sucker for size and a sucker for length.

and yes, i know how that sounds. i'm saying it anyway.
I think Davis puts them even with or ahead of Boston, but still 12 games behind the sixers.
FTFY
   1420. GregD Posted: December 19, 2011 at 02:44 AM (#4019098)
Daniel Orton's father joins you in over-rating Orton's potential. He was adamant that Orton was twice the player that Demarcus Cousins is and was outraged that Cousins started over Orton at UK.

My own (self-interested) two cents is that Orton would have been well served to come back for his Sophomore season, plow through the SEC, develop his offensive game by having to utilize it, learn how to control his tendency to foul, and then come into the NBA a little more ready for prime time. But obviously there's an injury risk, and I never fault people for taking the money when it's there for the taking.
   1421. Maxwn Posted: December 19, 2011 at 03:02 AM (#4019106)
#### you, Achilles.
   1422. Maxwn Posted: December 19, 2011 at 03:04 AM (#4019109)
Anyone know who to bribe to spring Kenyon Martin from his Chinese contract?
   1423. robinred Posted: December 19, 2011 at 03:11 AM (#4019112)
Davis had the most valuable assists in the league last season, and it wasn't even close. Among players with at least 300 assists, Davis' average assist was worth .841 points, well ahead of the league average of .667. And lest you think that was all from having Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan slamming down dunks, consider that Davis' assist value didn't change at all after the trade to Cleveland. More than half of Davis' assists were layups or dunks, according to Hoopdata.com, compared to the league average of 38 percent


I actually posted this myself a couple of weeks ago, so I was quite aware of it. Lakers fans have been following Baron too, remember. I think that effect will be negated a bit by playing with Stoudemire and Anthony, Anthony in particular. Davis has always been on teams where he dominated the ball. Having Davis there will probably help Chandler. But Davis is a lot slower than he used to be, and not much of a spot-up shooter.

On the bigger picture, I already said I think New York is in the mix to be #3 in the East so I agree with you there. But the gap between that and the Bulls and the Heat is substantial.
   1424. robinred Posted: December 19, 2011 at 03:13 AM (#4019113)
Sorry about Darrell Arthur, Maxwn. As soured as I am on the Lakers and Clippers, and being very anti-Dallas right now, I am interested in seeing the Grizzlies succeed and will pick them as a League Pass team.
   1425. robinred Posted: December 19, 2011 at 03:21 AM (#4019116)
Just a preseason game, but:

Howard: 2-9 from the field, 3 turnovers, 5 rebounds, 5 points in nearly 30 minutes of play.

MIA 118, ORL 85
   1426. Maxwn Posted: December 19, 2011 at 03:36 AM (#4019121)
Sorry about Darrell Arthur, Maxwn.

It's ok. Not the end of the world, though they've really got to do something smart now to fill out the big rotation. As much as I'd hate to, they might need to put O.J. back on the block. I will give Heisley a permanent pass on everything if he goes into the tax to fix this, but I will be a bit surprised if he does. Not really sure there is much left worth going into the tax for anyway. Maybe that one Kardashian guy.
   1427. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:06 AM (#4019133)
Anyone know who to bribe to spring Kenyon Martin from his Chinese contract?
It's ok. Not the end of the world, though they've really got to do something smart now to fill out the big rotation. As much as I'd hate to, they might need to put O.J. back on the block. I will give Heisley a permanent pass on everything if he goes into the tax to fix this, but I will be a bit surprised if he does. Not really sure there is much left worth going into the tax for anyway. Maybe that one Kardashian guy.


you could always trade for marreese speights.
   1428. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:11 AM (#4019138)
On the bigger picture, I already said I think New York is in the mix to be #3 in the East so I agree with you there. But the gap between that and the Bulls and the Heat is substantial.

Got it. I don't think this allows them to compete with MIA/CHI either, but it makes me more confident about their shot at grabbing the 3rd seed (and I realize this may actually not mean anything as all it does is change which one of MIA or CHI you get to lose to in the 2nd round).
   1429. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:38 AM (#4019147)
Chris Miller: Just confirmed that Nick Young will indeed sign his 3.7 million dollar offer sheet with #Wizards tomorrow. about 14 minutes ago



Mike Prada: It's now official: the #Wizards have only handed out one multi-year contract in the Ted Leonsis era. It went to Andray Blatche about 40 minutes ago
   1430. The District Attorney Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:48 AM (#4019150)
Fellow students at Bern's German-speaking Liebefeld-Steinhölzli School recall North Korean heir apparent Kim Jong-un as unremarkable and obsessed with basketball, the Washington Post said Wednesday...

"He proudly showed off photographs of himself standing with Toni Kukoc of the Chicago Bulls and Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers. It is unclear where the pictures were taken. On at least one occasion, a car from the North Korean Embassy drove Pak Un to Paris to watch an NBA exhibition game," the daily said.  

In class, Pak Un was generally shy and awkward with girls, but he became a different person on basketball court, according to his classmates. "A fiercely competitive player," said classmate Nikola Kovacevic. "He was very explosive. He could make things happen. He was the playmaker."
   1431. GregD Posted: December 19, 2011 at 05:34 AM (#4019162)
"A fiercely competitive player," said classmate Nikola Kovacevic. "He was very explosive. He could make things happen. He was the playmaker."
One on one with Barack for control of the universe! Make it happen.
   1432. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:20 PM (#4019270)
Royce Young: UNLEASH THE BIYOMBO: http://tinyurl.com/88lerl5 Freakish rookie forward agrees to buyout, will join Bobcats this year. about 40 minutes ago

Chris Palmer: Looking for Clippers season tickets? Don't bother. All sold out. about 46 minutes ago

Emiliano Carchia: FIBA will realease the transfer for Bobacts draftee Bismack Biyombo ($1.6M as buyout) and the young player will play in NBA this season about 2 hours ago

Emiliano Carchia: Michael Jordan was really interested in Bismack Biyombo situation and paid the flight for Charlotte to Fuenla management. They agreed about 2 hours ago





   1433. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#4019273)
   1434. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:34 PM (#4019277)
Toney D, however, doesn't really look like he could be part of an average backcourt.

I think DWTDD gets a bad rap. Perhaps the performance standards at G are much higher than I assumed, but this is still a guy who has posted a 14.9 then 15.2 PER through his first 2 years (league average is 15 IIRC)and by the metrics has been an average defender with the tools to be very good/excellent once he learns to pick his spots. He may not be blessed with court vision/passing ability but he's not nearly as bad as an overall player as people seem intent on making him. Of course, since he is my son, there may be some bias here, but I tried to use objective measures.
   1435. Jimmy P Posted: December 19, 2011 at 04:38 PM (#4019278)
Bismack Boyimbo negotiated a buyout, he'll be on the Bobcats this year.
   1436. The District Attorney Posted: December 19, 2011 at 05:15 PM (#4019294)
One on one with Barack for control of the universe! Make it happen.
Well, there is a big age difference, but also a very large height difference. Overall, I'd be willing to roll the dice on it.
   1437. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:00 PM (#4019329)
A fiercely competitive player," said classmate Nikola Kovacevic. "He was very explosive. He could make things happen. He was the playmaker."


He comes from a family of athletes; his father shot 11 holes-in-one during his first ever round of golf.
   1438. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#4019354)
apparently bill simmons wrote this:
Even the staunchest Kobe defender would agree the Lakers desperately need an infusion of fresh blood. But from where? That's why they should be considering a Bynum trade. What if they flipped him to a desperate-for-a-center team like Houston (Bynum, Steve Blake and Luke Walton's contract for Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Hasheem Thabeet and Patrick Patterson?), Minnesota (Bynum for Derrick Williams and Wesley Johnson?), Indiana (Bynum for Danny Granger?) or Philly (Bynum and the Metta World Peace/Walton contracts for Andre Igoudala and Elton Brand?)



now, as always, i'm gonna focus on the sixers. i am hugely optimistic about this season and about this roster, but i'm also a huge sucker for talented big men, and andrew bynum would definitely seem to be that. i think the above deal would only really happen if the lakers were desperate to get rid of artest and walton, because andre iguodala isn't really a centerpiece on a championship caliber team, and elton brand is just really not worth trading for (he's a good player, but between the age, the contract, and the injury issues, i don't think anyone would say he's got positive value in trade).

but...if this trade were to go down, it would create a really interesting dynamic for the team. the depth chart would look something like:

PG: holiday-williams
SG: meeks
SF: turner-artest
PF: young-speights/brackins/allen
C: bynum-hawes-vucevic

bynum and young could be an absolutely outstanding duo. and by clearing iguodala, turner would get more of an opportunity to play big minutes and function as a primary ballhandler. the trade would also increase speights value to the team, since his skills as a scorer would be more valuable on a 2nd unit without young and turner. and if artest has anything left in the tank, he could thrive on this team as a defensive specialist.

the trade also would give the sixers 3 legitimate centers. a potential second unit with hawes (just 23 years old) and vucevic (just 21) could wreak havoc against other teams' smaller, less athletic reserves.


i'd be very intrigued with that roster, but even so, at this point, i think the team would be better off staying the course and just going with what they currently have.
   1439. puck Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:54 PM (#4019377)
mlbtraderumors is looking to add an NBA site early next year.


And wants part time paid writers. The pay probably isn't much, but a lot of you guys are reporting this stuff here anyway.
   1440. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:03 PM (#4019382)
I don't understand how trading their only guy not currently receiving Social Security benefits is going to make the Lakers any "fresher." Particularly when they trade him for more old guys. If they want to make a move for the sake of making a move- which they shouldn't do- I'd be happier if they just shipped Gasol to Houston and got back what Houston was going to give to NOH. Martin isn't a great fit for the Lakes but Scola would be (I'd love a Scola-Bynum front court almost as much as I'd love a Scola-Howard front court.) At that point they could then use Martin and their trade exception and try to fix the point guard problems. That's not a perfect way forward but it beats either of the Simmons' scenarios.

That's not the best fit, but it's a lot better than shipping a talented 7 footer with a reasonable contract for two of the worst deals in the NBA. I like AI and Brand, but that suggestion is ridiculous. Bynum is still a very valuable player. There's plenty of reasons (two actually) that you should be weary of banking your future on him, but dumping him for good players with bad contracts makes little sense.
   1441. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:07 PM (#4019384)
That's too strong, Campy (Iggy definitely doesn't have one of the worst contracts in the league) - but I don't see LA doing that deal.

Sean Williams reportedly to sign with Dallas (having gotten of a contract w/ Haifa to do so)... Baron's deal (which I see as win-win for him and NY) was reportedly for the minimum, not the 2.5M exception as previously rumored.

Any of you guys ever see Ayon play (Mexican center a few teams are thinking about adding)? His Spanish #s are pretty decent.
   1442. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:18 PM (#4019387)
That's fair for AI I suppose (I was thinking he had missed more time recently and was a bigger injury risk than his GP numbers indicate.) But 3/45 for a guy whose offensive game is trending downwards is not a great deal. Certainly not the type of deal you would want as a return for a 7 footer in his early 20s who, despite making a lot of money, still has a team-friendly contract.
   1443. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:25 PM (#4019390)
No question, LA doesn't do that deal (and Iggy's contract is rich). Still, he has positive trade value (he's durable*, a top playmaker among wings, and one of the top 10(?) defenders in the league.)
I'll put it this way, Iggy will contribute more value to Philly next year than Bynum to LA. (And I like Bynum to, both as a player and as, er, a buy low fantasy play.)

* last season kind of notwithstanding

OKC trades Byron (don't call me BJ) Mullens + $ to CHA for a '13 2nd rd pick. Mullens' career PER (small sample size) is two.
   1444. robinred Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:38 PM (#4019401)
• My prediction: The Lakers' steadfast refusal to deal Bynum will end up being the downfall of the Kobe era Lakers. Last year's team struggled for many reasons, but mainly because L.A.'s best four players (Odom, Bynum, Gasol and Kobe) couldn't play together at the same time. They were just too slow and plodding. And also their superstar stopped playing like a superstar.


As he generally is when he writes about the Lakers, Simmons is mostly wrong here. He is right to an extent about the "slow and plodding" part, but he is wrong about the rest. As Hollinger pointed out, Kobe played as well last year as he had the year before. Whether he is a "superstar" anymore depends on how you define it. But as LAAFP and I have said many times: one of the biggest problems with hardcore Haters trying to analyze the Lakers is that they usually focus way too much on Kobe. Guys like Simmons and Abbott and Moore don't care about the Lakers, other than wanting to see them lose, so they can blame that on Kobe, and it compromises their ability to see the whole team. And, of course, last year's team didn't really "struggle." They won 57 games again and actually had better numbers than the 2010 team did in many areas. And, as in 2008, they lost to the champs. It happens.

Finally, the Lakers "mainly" "struggled" because they were pretty weak at the 3 and very weak at the 1; lacked quickness, and couldn't shoot 3s. The team was still good anyway because of Kobe at the 2 and the three-man big rotation at the 4 and the 5. The weaknesses at the 1 and 3 are more a function of bad contracts than of the four guys at the core of the roster.

As to the idea of trading Bynum for a package of players...it won't happen. Bynum will either go as part of a Howard package, or he will stay.

As to the merits of the deals themselves, and whether Jim Buss or Simmons is right about Bynum...not sure and not in an analytical mindset. I am very down on the team's prospects and management right now, and am less interested in following the Lakers, Clippers and Dallas than I would have been, due to the veto,the Odom dump,and Cuban running his mouth about the trade and the CBA while clearing cap space for his own team to make a run at Howard and/or a PG.

There is a case to be made for trading Bynum right now, due to the knee issues, but it is purely a hypothetical exercise.
   1445. Tripon Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:42 PM (#4019406)
If you're trying to trade for Elton Brand to fill a 'need', you're likely asking the wrong question.
   1446. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:50 PM (#4019412)
but mainly because L.A.'s best four players (Odom, Bynum, Gasol and Kobe) couldn't play together at the same time.

Yes, a similar dynamic crippled the team the previous two years. It was also instrumental in them finishing way back in first place in point differential in the Western Conference last year. That comment is just dumb (Simmons being Simmons?.)

The Lakers had a very good team last year that played poorly in the playoffs, largely because Kobe was average and Gasol was awful. And given the match-ups they had those things should never have occurred. The only thing worse than how they played in the playoffs, however, is the "analysis" that their playoff performance gave birth to.
   1447. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#4019491)
That's fair for AI I suppose (I was thinking he had missed more time recently and was a bigger injury risk than his GP numbers indicate.) But 3/45 for a guy whose offensive game is trending downwards is not a great deal. Certainly not the type of deal you would want as a return for a 7 footer in his early 20s who, despite making a lot of money, still has a team-friendly contract.
i agree with most of that. iguodala never developed his jumpshot, and it's just really sunk his offensive efficiency now that he's surrounded by players who are actually quality offensive players. when he was playing with willie green, reggie evans, and sam dalembert, he had a lot more freedom to work on offense and to find his shot, but now, with the talent they have on hand, he's just their 5th or 6th best scorer (behind holiday, williams, brand, young, and maybe turner), and it's just painful to see him try to create his own offense at this point.


though i probably should note that he's still very good in the open court, and he's a very good distributor in the half court (at least when he's trying to do that, as opposed to trying to beat the opposing defense 1-on-5).

also, if he were to add a reliable 3 point shot, he'd be a much, much more dangerous offensive player (if only because it'd open up space in the paint by making opponents defend him out to 23 feet). but this is his 8th year, and if it hasn't happened yet, i'm not gonna hold my breath for it happening in the future.
I'll put it this way, Iggy will contribute more value to Philly next year than Bynum to LA. (And I like Bynum to, both as a player and as, er, a buy low fantasy play.)
i don't think that's unlikely, but it's worth noting that bynum has much more of a chance to be an elite offensive player. iggy just isn't that, but with his size, bynum very well could be.
   1448. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:35 PM (#4019519)
1. Will any advanced metric friendly NBA sites be doing season projections?

2. Am I alone in thinking Noah is as good a player as Chandler (with a decent argument for being better)?

3. Are there any available studies on how much of a difference a good defensive C can be expected to make to a team?
   1449. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#4019520)
i don't think that's unlikely, but it's worth noting that bynum has much more of a chance to be an elite offensive player. iggy just isn't that, but with his size, bynum very well could be.

Sure - heck, Bynum's an all-star (or within spitting distance of it) caliber player when he's on the floor.

That aside, you do know Iggy's your best player - right? Not a great half court player, outside shot never came around. That's a big deal - but it's also his only weakness.

News and rumors:
Chuck Hayes contract voided.
Rumor is NOH offered Ayon 3/5m (yr 3 is a t-opt, Ayon faces a hefty buyout if he wants to do this).
   1450. madvillain Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#4019532)
2. Am I alone in thinking Noah is as good a player as Chandler (with a decent argument for being better)?


You could make an argument for it. The one clear advantage Noah has is his passing ability (check out their assist percentages) and he's also a slightly better offensive rebounder, with those being more important than defensive rebounds, all things considered. Chandler however grabs slightly more total rebounds and you could make an argument he's a better finisher inside than Noah, just based on their TS%. I would have to look at the 82games and Synergy data to see more about that.

Chandler had by far the best year of his career last year, in a contract year, at 28. He probably just peaked. Noah just finished his age 25 season and is entering year 2 with Boozer, which should help his offensive efficiency.

I'd have to say Noah's better. He's younger, does everything Chandler does almost as well, and is quite a bit better passer. Both guys have struggled with injuries at times.
   1451. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#4019534)
I prefer Noah, but it's real close.

Studies: Ummm, I've seen stuff - generally focused on specific players. The idea that the center is the most important defender on the team is (unsurprisingly) backed by evidence.

Projections: I'm sure we'll see some.
   1452. madvillain Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#4019537)
Studies: Ummm, I've seen stuff - generally focused on specific players. The idea that the center is the most important defender on the team is (unsurprisingly) backed by evidence.


In the NBA, perimeter defense only gets you so far. With the hand check rules, it's impossible to keep Lebron, Rose, Wade etc out of the lane. The importance of a big man to roam the paint, hedge on screens, (Joel Anthony, for all his offensive faults, is a hell of a hedge and recover defender) and generally cover up for the guards cannot be understated.

Thibs' defense and Riley's defense rely a ton on having a big man athletic enough to hedge on the perimeter and then cover the baseline as well. Chicago's defense tries to funnel everything to the sidelines where the offensive player has nowhere to go except into the wall of Noah or Asik or Gibson.
   1453. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:19 PM (#4019555)
To my eye, both Chandler and Noah are really good at that. Noah's a bit more nimble, Chandler better when he stays at home. YMMV (as may Synergy's).

Peja retired.
   1454. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:33 PM (#4019566)
Yes, a similar dynamic crippled the team the previous two years. It was also instrumental in them finishing way back in first place in point differential in the Western Conference last year. That comment is just dumb (Simmons being Simmons?.)
Seriously. The only fundamental problems with any team with the same core coming off three straight Finals runs and two straight World Championships would be age, injuries, and depth. It's not as sexy or as interesting as the team dynamics stories columnists like to write, but there you go.

I do agree that this is the end of the Kobe Era, though. My bitterness about this comes from the fact that the era will end not because some other team was better or smarter or tougher or more talented, but because an arrogant #### of a commish and a group of jealous owners conspired to take their knees out. If there's no Howard deal, I'm not sure how the Lakers can get back to being contenders until both Bryant's and Gasol's contracts are off the books.
   1455. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:54 PM (#4019580)
My bitterness about this comes from the fact that the era will end not because some other team was better or smarter or tougher or more talented, but because an arrogant #### of a commish and a group of jealous owners conspired to take their knees out.

That only kept the Lakers from getting Paul. If they aren't able to contend this year, while losing Paul almost certainly won't have helped that situation, it won't be why they can't compete.

As a Laker fan who, despite loving all that the team has done on the court, probably has more respect for what they have done on the business side, this off-season is alarming. The Odom trade, despite the public reasons offered, seems like a garden-variety salary dump from where I sit. And a really, really bad salary dump at that. Buss always ran the Lake Show as a business that should make money- not as a toy that you burn money in- but he did that by spending lots of money and insuring that the Lakers were always a premium product (didn't always work, but that was the idea.) Standing alone, the Odom move seems to be a radical departure from that approach. If the trade exception they received for Odom doesn't get used to bring in a quality player, along with some of the other odd happenings, this could very well end up being the off-season where "The Lakers" stopped being "The Lakers." It's still early, there are other moves they could make now, there are a couple of long-term strategies that might start out this way, and the franchise has definitely earned some credit as far as it goes- but the Odom trade is startling. And, in my view, cause for some concern.
   1456. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:55 PM (#4019581)
That aside, you do know Iggy's your best player - right? Not a great half court player, outside shot never came around. That's a big deal - but it's also his only weakness.
he's not a good enough offensive players to still be that. he's a very good player (despite the aforementioned weaknesses, he's great in the open court, he's very good about creating offense for other players, and the defense is still top notch), but jrue holiday has surpassed him, and elton brand is also a better player (at least for now).


but at this point, i don't think it's important to designate any 1 player as the sixers' best. the entire rotation is basically playing at the same level. on any given night, the best player on the court could be iguodala, or it could be holiday, or it could be brand, or thaddeus young or evan turner, or lou williams or even spencer hawes or jodie meeks (or marreese speights). i don't think any other team could say that about that many players, and i think that's gonna drive a major resurgence of this team, this year.
   1457. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:58 PM (#4019587)
but at this point, i don't think it's important to designate any 1 player as the sixers' best.
That'll make those Iggy final shot iso's just that much more fun to watch.

I do admit, I like tweaking Steagles right now, just because he's so excited about his team (which is great) and I'm so down on mine.
   1458. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#4019589)
I do admit, I like tweaking Steagles right now, just because he's so excited about his team (which is great) and I'm so down on mine.

I'm not sure if I'm more interested in seeing his reaction if the Sixers start 5-14 versus if they start, say, 16-3.
   1459. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:09 PM (#4019599)
I'm not sure if I'm more interested in seeing his reaction if the Sixers start 5-14 versus if they start, say, 16-3.
i said it back a few days ago--they're coming out of the gate 9-0.
That'll make those Iggy final shot iso's just that much more fun to watch.
ugh. luckily, there were fewer of those last season. not so luckily, the bulk of the shots that didn't go to iguodala went to lou williams. that's progress, i guess, but still, the ball needs to be in jrue holiday's hands.
   1460. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:23 PM (#4019609)
One last time...

BBTF fantasy basketball league; currently at 10 teams. 18-man rosters ( PG, PG, SG, SG, G, SF, SF, PF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util, Util, BN, BN, BN); scoring based on Hollinger's Game Score:
(Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)
League is #28232; PW is albright

Draft is tonight at 9 p.m. EST/6 p.m. PST.
   1461. tshipman Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:46 PM (#4019627)
Really not a fan of the lounge fantasy league spamming the thread.

Especially given:
a. This thread has its own fantasy league.
b. It would not appear that posters from the lounge participate in this thread (I might be wrong about that)
   1462. robinred Posted: December 20, 2011 at 12:24 AM (#4019639)
That only kept the Lakers from getting Paul.


Maybe. The reasoning obviously was that Paul would draw Howard--that Howard would force a trade here. Might have happened, might not have.

As I said at the time, Paul and Howard both coming here to LAL would have probably been bad for the league, and more to the point, would have made the new CBA look like a joke. With Paul on the Clippers, Stern gets what he needs three ways. As I pointed out to LAAFP in an email, it's not as if Paul is on Toronto now. Houston got screwed as part of the fallout.

As to the Odom dump, it reeks of Jimmy Buss pulling a Nuke LaLoosh--announcing his presence with authority, as the K Bros like to say. It clears time and touches for Bynum, means Bynum will finish games, sends a message about asking for trades, and takes away another piece of the Phil Jackson years. Based on some stuff I am seeing on the net, I think some of the fanbase is underrating what Odom brought between the lines. As a pure salary dump, which it may have been, it is indefensible. Odom makes 8.9 this year and is guaranteed only 2.5 next year. Cuban will use that to clear even more cap space.

And yes, this off-season may well have marked a long-term turning point.

Tonight's game is certainly the most anticipated LAL/LAC pre-season game ever.
   1463. Tripon Posted: December 20, 2011 at 12:32 AM (#4019643)
The Lakers dynasty ends because the idiot son has to get his way.
   1464. JC in DC Posted: December 20, 2011 at 01:43 AM (#4019678)
The Lakers dynasty ends because the idiot son has to get his way.


Let's hope the same happens in N. Korea.
   1465. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 02:33 AM (#4019717)
Marc Stein: Here's ALL NEW link to ESPN latest on Arron Afflalo reaching terms w/Denver on new deal worth five years, $43 million: http://es.pn/vP4rKe about 9 minutes ago

Ira Winderman: Best remaining free agents: Arenas, Bogans, Dalembert, Elson, Reggie Evans, Fesenko, Kris Humphries, Kirilenko, Posey, Redd, DeShawn, Yi. about 12 minutes ago

[Adrian Wojnarowski] Adrian Wojnarowski: Should Steve Novak clear waivers after Spurs release, New York will likely sign him to a guaranteed deal for season, sources tell Y! about 27 minutes ago

   1466. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 20, 2011 at 02:35 AM (#4019718)
Maybe. The reasoning obviously was that Paul would draw Howard--that Howard would force a trade here. Might have happened, might not have.
I've heard from three separate radio sources (one being David Aldridge, the other ESPN's Ryen Russillo, the last being a local radio guy) that once the Paul trade was consummated, Howard was a sure thing. That got smaller markets like Cleveland to rise up because the Paul deal gave the Lakers revenue relief, and Laker competitors like Dallas to rise up because they didn't want to see the Lakers get better. (Russillo essentially stated the last rumor as flat out fact.)

As to the Odom dump, it reeks of Jimmy Buss pulling a Nuke LaLoosh--announcing his presence with authority, as the K Bros like to say.
It's the beginning of the end.

My wife overheard me voicing my bitterness to my brother over dinner this weekend, and asked me, "Why do you want to waste money on the NBA cable thing if you're so angry at basketball you won't even watch the games you can see for free?" So instead of watching all the Sixers games this season I'll put the money towards a day on the slopes or something.

God, I'm so bitter.
   1467. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 20, 2011 at 02:54 AM (#4019739)
So instead of watching all the Sixers games this season I'll put the money towards a day on the slopes or something.


Bad move. How often do you get to see true greatness?
   1468. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 02:55 AM (#4019741)
So instead of watching all the Sixers games this season
there's room on the bandwagon.
Bad move. How often do you get to see true greatness?
heh.


"true greatness" isn't really the feeling i get from this team. i see them more as like a CM punk "BEST IN THE WORLD" type team.
   1469. tshipman Posted: December 20, 2011 at 03:19 AM (#4019762)
What is the difference between STEAGLES and parody at this point?
   1470. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 20, 2011 at 03:26 AM (#4019770)
I presume Humphries is unsigned to preserve the possibility of S/Ting him in an ORL deal.

but jrue holiday has surpassed him, and elton brand is also a better player (at least for now).

We've exhausted the topic but I disagree on both. (Now, Jrue in 2 years is a different story.)
   1471. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 20, 2011 at 03:35 AM (#4019784)
What is the difference between STEAGLES and parody at this point?

STEAGLES has way cooler name changes.

I like enthusiasm. Even if it may be, at times, to some minimal degree, perhaps a touch unrealistic.
   1472. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 03:50 AM (#4019798)
What is the difference between STEAGLES and parody at this point?
well, to be honest, what you see here is mostly a parody of what my personality is actually like.


We've exhausted the topic but I disagree on both. (Now, Jrue in 2 years is a different story.)
elton brand is still a hell of a player. his contract is terrible, and he's no longer a 20/10 guy, but he's very efficient on offense, and he's still really good on defense. this team is better because he's on it.

as for jrue, his numbers look similar to iguodala's, but if you look at the hoopdata numbers, jrue is a better shooter from 3-9 feet and he's better from 10-15. he's better from 16-23 and he's better from beyond the arc. iguodala is really, really good at finishing at the rim (72% FG%), but even there, 58% of those FGs are assisted. jrue shoots 61% at the rim, but only 28% of those FGs were assisted, which means that most of the times he finished at the rim, he created his own shot.

but again, i don't think it's productive to look at this team and try to put one player over another. they all produce at about the same level, and the team is better when the ball is shared equally.
   1473. tshipman Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:13 AM (#4019817)
well, to be honest, what you see here is mostly a parody of what my personality is actually like.


I figured. I don't mean anything by it. Like Dagoberto, the enthusiasm makes me laugh from time to time.


elton brand is still a hell of a player. his contract is terrible, and he's no longer a 20/10 guy, but he's very efficient on offense, and he's still really good on defense. this team is better because he's on it.


I feel like this is a really common bias that "hardcore" fans have--guys who have been around a while are sort of dismissed in terms of what they can do. I think Elton Brand is a pretty good player. Not a max guy at this point (I think the Sixers will regret not amnestying him), but still a very good player.
   1474. robinred Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:24 AM (#4019829)
Kobe Bryant's comment on Derek Fisher's role in the labor negotiations:

I don’t know how he did it," Bryant said. "I’d much rather run suicides all day than sit in that room for 12-13 hours looking at David Stern."
   1475. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:39 AM (#4019843)
(I think the Sixers will regret not amnestying him)
i think there should be two plans at this point. the first would be to get dwight howard. that would be a longshot, but he's mentioned wanting to play with iguodala, and depending on how things go early this season, the sixers have a lot of assets the magic could find attractive (evan turner, msrreese speights, jodie meeks, and nik vucevic, to name a few of the more get-able ones). i'd envision a package of maybe turner, vucevic, picks, and elton brand (but that depends on turner and vucevic raising their game this season and becoming more desirable trade targets.

if that was the deal, the starting lineup would be howard-young-iguodala-meeks-holiday, and they'd still have lou williams, marreese speights and spencer hawes off the bench.

but that's kind of a pipedream, and the scenario depends on a lot of things going just right.


plan B, and this is one i'm kind of fond of, would be to wait until after next season, when brand's contract expires, and use the amnesty on iguodala at that point. in one fell swoop, they'd clear both brand and iguodala (~32 million), giving them a significant amount of cap room along with a few select returning pieces (holiday, young, turner, vucevic).
   1476. madvillain Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:45 AM (#4019852)
Jesus Steagles, I enjoy your posts, but Evan Turner, Vucevic, Brand and picks for Howard? Yea right.
   1477. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:47 AM (#4019855)
Jesus Steagles, I enjoy your posts, but Evan Turner, Vucevic, Brand and picks for Howard? Yea right.
if you're gonna dream, dream big.
   1478. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:49 AM (#4019857)
i'd envision a package of maybe turner, vucevic, picks, and elton brand (but that depends on turner and vucevic raising their game this season and becoming more desirable trade targets.
I laughed.

EDIT: I guess I'm not the only one.
   1479. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 20, 2011 at 04:54 AM (#4019864)
Afflalo, 5/43, I like--more than the 4/50 Simmons spent an entire column trying to convince me he was gonna get. Pretty big miss on that one for the insider's insider, no?
   1480. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 20, 2011 at 05:05 AM (#4019875)
I don't think hearing "Metta World Peace for 3" will ever not be funny.

EDIT: Darius Morris making an early bid for Shump Shump's ROY.
   1481. smileyy Posted: December 20, 2011 at 05:13 AM (#4019880)
Hearing Afflalo's name pronounced somehow grates my ears.
   1482. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 20, 2011 at 06:11 AM (#4019927)
No, you're not LA(AFP)oA.

Brand is a good ballplayer, long time fan of that guy.

Holiday is a better shooter - sure. However, I'd think advantages in every other area would somehow compensate for that. Iggy has a higher PER (including when you adjust for percentage of baskets that are assisted), higher WS/48*, and way higher "simple rating" (7.3 points higher than Holiday's (and almost five points higher than any other Sixer but Williams, who was 2.2 back last year).
Not every means of looking at these questions would have such a wide spread between the men, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Iguodala is quite a bit better than Holiday at this point in time - so, yes, amnesty him please.

* I should note that, of the popular uber-measures, one I left out** - adjusted +/- number - didn't like Iguodala at all last year. That said, it's really noisy (best used over a 2/3 year span) and this was an outlier for his career ... Iggy's "$ year" RAPM tops Holiday's as well.

** simple rating does include simple +/-.
   1483. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 20, 2011 at 06:12 AM (#4019930)
While Simmons was silly on Afflalo, there were plenty of people who went way low on that one - I'll cut the BSG some slack here (though just a little).
   1484. Norcan Posted: December 20, 2011 at 10:26 AM (#4019966)
5/43 seems a little steep for Afflalo. He's a valuable player but still limited to being a role player. He and Wesley Matthews have similar size, athleticism and skillsets but the big advantage Matthews has is that he can score around the basket. He's more offensively dynamic. I would probably flip the two contracts they have.

After seeing the Lakers and Clippers game, it might be best for the Lakers if Artest starts. His strength and post game force the opposition to defend square up. No hiding someone like Billups on Barnes and letting the bigger Butler take Kobe.
   1485. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 20, 2011 at 06:51 PM (#4020238)
Count me in as someone amused (in a good way) by Steagles enthusiasm for his team. Off course I am still bitter about the enthusiasm shown torwards J. Flynn.

And if it wasn't Steagles who was silly high on Flynn several thousand posts ago, making me briefly hope he was better than In my heart of hearts I knew he was, then I am sorry for a bad memory for names.
   1486. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 07:29 PM (#4020278)

Holiday is a better shooter - sure. However, I'd think advantages in every other area would somehow compensate for that. Iggy has a higher PER (including when you adjust for percentage of baskets that are assisted), higher WS/48*, and way higher "simple rating" (7.3 points higher than Holiday's (and almost five points higher than any other Sixer but Williams, who was 2.2 back last year).
since we're asking the question of who's the best sixer, by measure of PER, elton brand, lou williams, and thad young rank ahead of iguodala (at least last year, and i'd be fairly confident in saying that brand and young will be ahead of iguodala this year, as well). and by measure of WS/48, elton brand is the best sixer by (what appears to be) a significant margin.




anyway, we're about 6 hours from the tip-off of preseason game #2. i don't think it'll be possible for the team to improve on game 1, but i'd like to see something that at least resembles that performance.

And if it wasn't Steagles who was silly high on Flynn several thousand posts ago, making me briefly hope he was better than In my heart of hearts I knew he was, then I am sorry for a bad memory for names.
yeah, that was me. i was a huge fan of flynn, but i was a fan of him in the 10-16 range where he'd have been a target of the sixers.


i don't think you can give me too much #### on that, though. after flynn, there was curry, but the rest of the draft was pretty shitty. jordan hill, brandon jennings, terrence williams, gerald henderson, tyler hansbrough. it's not like you were missing out on multiple all stars.

and flynn was really pretty decent in year 1. 36% from beyond the arc, 83 from the FT line. if he'd have built on that performance in year 2 by reducing his turnovers, he'd have been a really good player.

also, i think it should be noted that he's only 22 years old, and is going into his 3rd year. he could still be a really good player.
   1487. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 20, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#4020364)
While Simmons was silly on Afflalo, there were plenty of people who went way low on that one - I'll cut the BSG some slack here (though just a little).

To defend robin's friend Bill for a moment, I think he also predicted that someone like the Pacers would sign him. And since he was a RFA, it would have taken that type of offer to get him away from Denver. His last article also talked about his predictions, and what he called a "market crash" after the initial batch of signings.
   1488. andrewberg Posted: December 20, 2011 at 09:02 PM (#4020397)
The idea of the market crash got me thinking about when everyone told me I was way low on my free agent guesses. Some of them were low, but I wasn't as behind the market as it may have seemed at the time. I even guessed high on a couple of guys, so it seems like the market has not been as aggressive as most expected going into the offseason.
   1489. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 20, 2011 at 09:13 PM (#4020410)
from the point forward:
• It’s one preseason game, but as I predicted, Paul had a huge impact on the Clippers’ turnover differential, which was the worst in the league last season, when they coughed the ball up more often than anyone on offense. The Clippers turned the ball over just 11 times in a pretty fast-paced game and forced a whopping 21 Laker turnovers, including five Paul steals. Paul’s teams have always been low-turnover clubs on offense, and the Clips’ turnover differential should be much better this season.


and i got kind of a chuckle at this:
• Jason Kapono looked sloooowwww running around screens and trying to free himself; watch Kyle Korver in comparison and appreciate the speed differential. The Lakers are going to have to work very hard to create shots outside the post in the half court, and they are going to count a lot on Bynum and Gasol drawing extra defensive attention down low — in both pick-and-rolls and traditional post-ups.
   1490. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 20, 2011 at 10:27 PM (#4020503)
Hollinger's Western Conference Projection (Insider, so I'm only posting the order)

1. OKC
2. DEN
3. SAS
4. LAC
5. LAL
6. DAL
7. POR
8. MEM
HOU
MIN
UTH
GSW
SAC
PHX
NOH

The Schoene projected standings were done in tiers (Kevin, let me know if I'm breaking any rules posting this and I will delete)

OKC

DAL-LAC-POR-SAS

DEN-LAL

HOU-MEM-MIN

GS-NOH-PHX-SAC-UTH

EDIT: First thing that comes to mind when looking at this is that I like Memphis a lot more than the projections do.
   1491. robinred Posted: December 20, 2011 at 10:31 PM (#4020508)
Hollinger put out his West forecast today, and it reflects what has been said here: Very compressed, OKC on top. He has 8 games separating OKC at 1 and Memphis at 8, and like I have said, even the bad teams can hurt you. Notable projections:

Denver 2 at 43-23
Minnesota at 29-37
   1492. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 20, 2011 at 10:35 PM (#4020512)
From espn.com:

The process could take a bit longer with [Eddy] Curry, who says he has lost about 70 pounds since he last played a meaningful role in the league three years ago with the New York Knicks. The Heat's staff is putting Curry through twice-daily conditioning sessions to help him recover from the injury, as well as to lose more weight and hit a target range of about 300 pounds.


Doing the math here... Curry lost 70 pounds and is still trying to lose more weight to get to a target of 300? So he was at like 390 when he was with the Knicks? Yikes...
   1493. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 20, 2011 at 11:11 PM (#4020550)
Let's not forget Memphis *did* finish 8th in the West last year. Of course, as RR points out, the projected difference between 1 and 8 in the West is only 8 games, so with a little luck or an injury here or there you could easily end up switching a lot of those teams around.
   1494. Maxwn Posted: December 20, 2011 at 11:26 PM (#4020568)
Hollinger told one of the local Memphis writers on twitter that he had the Grizzlies at 4 until the Darrell Arthur news came down, which seems fair enough to me. Really hard to tell how they are going to handle that yet.

The Commercial Appeal is reporting that the Grizzlies have tendered Dante Cunningham with a 2 yr + 1 yr team option offer sheet. I know basically nothing about Dante Cunningham, so I am more or less agnostic on the idea. I have to think it is better than rush trading O.J. Mayo though, so I guess it works for me.
   1495. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 20, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#4020583)
phi ws/48: you didn't account for position. brand was 30% above the league avg for pfs (.124), iggy was 38% above the league average for sf (.094).

and, no matter how you slice it, you're not accounting for defense. add in defensive per (or whatever) and you have iguodala on top on a per minute basis.... he also plays a lot of minutes per game.
   1496. andrewberg Posted: December 20, 2011 at 11:54 PM (#4020605)
From Hollinger's section on the Wolves:

Finally, they potentially can squeeze more from the same talent just by playing small. Half the team consists of 6-foot-8 combo forwards, one of whom is currently posing as its starting shooting guard. Moving Love to center not only takes "go-to guy" Milicic off the floor, it also opens the door for Williams, Beasley, Randolph and Johnson to snag minutes as forwards. I'd argue it's better for Love too, since he can't guard the perimeter anyway.


I have been banging this drum for 2 years. I hope we are finally moving in that direction.
   1497. andrewberg Posted: December 21, 2011 at 12:01 AM (#4020610)
The Commercial Appeal is reporting that the Grizzlies have tendered Dante Cunningham with a 2 yr + 1 yr team option offer sheet. I know basically nothing about Dante Cunningham, so I am more or less agnostic on the idea. I have to think it is better than rush trading O.J. Mayo though, so I guess it works for me.


I think that's obviously true. When I saw Cunningham's name floated for them, I shrugged and thought it made enough sense. He's lanky and has a passable jump shot. I remember watching him in college and he had a lot more strength than when I saw him play in Portland. He looked skinnier, but that might have just been by comparison to those around him. He's not a great rebounder, but his hands are ok. I suppose Memphis primarily needs him on defense, and he has always struck me as a very willing defender, and the type of guy who will try to get the most out of his body even though he has to deal with bigger guys a lot of the time.

I don't know if any of that is particularly informative, but he's not really exceptional. He's undersized for the 4/5 role, but will try hard, if nothing else.
   1498. robinred Posted: December 21, 2011 at 12:04 AM (#4020612)
Basically, I think it is OKC, then a knot of teams that could swing either direction based on injuries/moves, and OKC has a couple of flaws as well.
   1499. robinred Posted: December 21, 2011 at 12:11 AM (#4020619)
It shows Heisley wants to win and will spend a little extra money to do so. Worth something, I think.
   1500. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 21, 2011 at 12:13 AM (#4020620)
If the Clippers get one more good big- and stay healthy- I don't see any reason that they can't compete with OKC for the top slot. They are not really young- except up front where they have one of the best players in the league- and they have a veteran point guard (3 of them actually) who helps to cover up for the youth issues they do have. They have six very solid rotation players (plus Foye, Gomes and Bledsoe who should give them some decent regular season minutes) and a legitimate center.

I realize its the Clippers and it's somewhat unimaginable, but other than front-court depth, nothing really sticks out to me as an obvious reason that they can't be as good as any team in the league.

EDIT- I guess people don't like VDN, so that would be one reason.
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