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Friday, December 02, 2011

NBA THREAD DECEMBER: POST-LOCKOUT

With the lockout over, I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the NBA, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: fractional reserve banking, and Tim Tebow.

robinred Posted: December 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM | 3254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   1801. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:49 AM (#4025600)
Of course the Pacers won't be scared to stand toe-to-toe with the Heat; after all, Lance Stephenson loves hitting girls.
   1802. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 30, 2011 at 06:29 AM (#4025625)
I've never seen Amare play so poorly.
   1803. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 06:32 AM (#4025628)
Tough loss for the Nuggets as they let the game go by taking terrible, contested shots down the stretch and missing tons of wide open ones. Gallinari should take most of the blame as he had at least 3 wide open 3 pointers that he came nowhere close to hitting.

What's the logic behind Karl starting Mosgov? Are coaches that wed to the idea of having a "true" C that they're willing to start a guy they have no intention of actually playing just to say they started the game with a C?

EDIT: On the Blazers side, Felton had one of those games where you think "Man...this guy is fat, but he can really play." Great job by him pushing the pace, creating fast breaks after Nugget makes but it was a bit of a fool's gold situation as he was knocking down jumpers Ray Felton has no business knocking down.

Jamal Crawford also had a perfect Jamal Crawford game.
   1804. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 06:49 AM (#4025645)
Not sure how the Knicks are only down by 8 heading into the 4th.

EDIT: At this point...I think Amar'e is throwing the game.
   1805. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:03 AM (#4025654)
i think part of the pitch to get nene to stay was to play him at the four more often.
   1806. Spivey Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:06 AM (#4025656)
Durant had a pretty sick fade away three at the buzzer to beat Dallas. It's early, but Dallas did not get off to a good start. Looks like Westbrook played well in the 4th after struggling early based on the highlights.
   1807. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:07 AM (#4025657)
Not sure how the Knicks are only down by 8 heading into the 4th.

35 free throws through three quarters.
   1808. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:08 AM (#4025659)
Looks like Westbrook played well in the 4th after struggling early based on the highlights.

He was 2/3 in the last 2 or so minutes, but I thought all 3 shots were bad attempts (contested long 2s).

EDIT: 35 free throws through three quarters.

Yeah, just remembered that.
   1809. Squash Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:30 AM (#4025667)
I'm loving the pace of this compressed schedule. The season is five days old and the Lakers have already played four games? Fantastic. I hate those long three day stretches between games in the regular schedule. It should be this way all the time - cut the number of games and compress it.
   1810. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:52 AM (#4025671)
I'm loving the pace of this compressed schedule. The season is five days old and the Lakers have already played four games? Fantastic. I hate those long three day stretches between games in the regular schedule. It should be this way all the time - cut the number of games and compress it.
you might want to hold your opinion on that until you see the quality of play on the back end of a 7 game in 11 day stretch in mid-march.
After watching them for 6 minutes, I feel safe saying the Blazers were hugely underrated by almost everyone.
i definitely agree with that. their bigs can play some tremendous D.


the biggest question i see for them is whether they can nurse a 39 year old kurt thomas and a 37 year old marcus camby through a compressed schedule and keep them on top of their game going into the playoffs.


Forget it, he's on a roll.
the sixers play their first back-to-back today and tomorrow against utah and golden state. i'll try to keep any grand pronouncements of the sixers dominance to myself until after they sweep it.
   1811. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:04 AM (#4025672)
i'll try to keep any grand pronouncements of the sixers dominance to myself until after they sweep it.
You won't be able to help yourself! You know it!

I had not realizes just how cake the Sixers' early schedule is. After Game #1, they don't play anyone that's really good for another three weeks.
   1812. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:40 AM (#4025675)
I had not realizes just how cake the Sixers' early schedule is. After Game #1, they don't play anyone that's really good for another three weeks.
their first 5 games are on the road (POR, PHX, UTA, GS, NOH), and then after that, i believe 14 of their next 17 games are at home.


the schedule should set up really well for them, at least going into february.


they do pay for that later in the season, though. 9 of their last 11 games are on the road (though, even looking at that, they finish the season on a 5 game road trip (@CLE, IND, NJ, MIL, DET) and that doesn't exactly look like a meatgrinder.
   1813. jmurph Posted: December 30, 2011 at 03:05 PM (#4025694)
No HD games on League Pass on Comcast tonight. Thanks for the free preview, NBA, to help me decide against giving you my money.
   1814. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 30, 2011 at 04:25 PM (#4025723)
Knicks were putrid again. But, hey, we have some things to look forward to. Next comes the "let's blame our suckitude on the coach" phase, and the persistent rumors of D'Antoni's demise, with Melo's passive-aggressive tabloid-ready quotes. Then another Isiah puppet, Mike Woodson, becomes the new coach, solidifying the smiley charlatan's hold on the team' hierarchy and giving us a Dolan/Grunwald/Woodson management triumvirate, all loyal to Isiah, with Isiah pulling the strings -- this time with no formal title and, therefore, no accountability. Soon to be followed by Isiah's return to formal power -- after all, the Knicks aren't any good anyway, so how was it Isiah's fault to begin with?

Oh, happy days.
   1815. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 30, 2011 at 04:38 PM (#4025736)
Sentences unlikely to be used to describe a title-contending team: "[Jeremy Lin] will serve as an insurance policy, backing up Toney Douglas and Mike Bibby at point guard."
   1816. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 30, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#4025749)
Sentences unlikely to be used to describe a title-contending team: "[Jeremy Lin] will serve as an insurance policy, backing up Toney Douglas and Mike Bibby at point guard."

The ship be sinking.
   1817. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:28 PM (#4025780)
Sentences unlikely to be used to describe a title-contending team: "[Jeremy Lin] will serve as an insurance policy, backing up Toney Douglas and Mike Bibby at point guard."
that's better than not actually having a backup guard and having your starting PG bang his knee against the hardwood with 3 minutes left in a game you're leading by 20 because you don't have anyone else to put in the game.
   1818. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:36 PM (#4025788)
you might want to hold your opinion on that until you see the quality of play on the back end of a 7 game in 11 day stretch in mid-march.


Yeah, true. I think we saw a bit of that last night with the stinker San Antonio put up in Houston. Scola came out and made 4 buckets on Timmy in the first 3 minutes and Duncan just had this look on his face like "can someone tell this guy it's not the playoffs yet and he can calm down?"

I had not realizes just how cake the Sixers' early schedule is


I'm really fretting this with the Wolves. Opened with OKC, then played Milwaukee. Played both of those teams tough but came up just short both times. Now the schedule goes Miami, Dallas, San Antonio, Memphis. It's like the schedule makers were daring them to lose to the Bucks.
   1819. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:50 PM (#4025802)

Sentences unlikely to be used to describe a title-contending team: "[Jeremy Lin] will serve as an insurance policy, backing up Toney Douglas and Mike Bibby at point guard."


The Knicks remind me of a fantasy team. They seem to have been built without thought to how to get healthy production out of the whole roster.
   1820. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:55 PM (#4025806)
Sentences unlikely to be used to describe a title-contending team: "[Jeremy Lin] will serve as an insurance policy, backing up Toney Douglas and Mike Bibby at point guard."
Hey! Easy there! ... I'd rather play Lin than Bibby.
   1821. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 30, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#4025839)
Hey! Easy there! ... I'd rather play Lin than Bibby.

Micheal Ray has more left in the tank than Bibby.
   1822. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:12 PM (#4025858)
The Knicks remind me of a fantasy team. They seem to have been built without thought to how to get healthy production out of the whole roster.


Not only that, but a fantasy team drafted by someone who has had a tenuous relationship with the NBA for several years, and only intersects with players through outside means.

Now that I have Carmelo and Amare, my team is pretty much set!

Baron Davis and Mike Bibby available? Those guys are good!

Jeremy Lin? Isn't that the guy who went to Harvard? And Landry Fields went to Stanford; it's always good to have smart guys. They don't make dumb mistakes.

I think I saw Tyson Chandler on youtube during the lockout. He's good.

Iman Shumpert is a cool name.

Toney Douglas... didn't he play on that really good team at Memphis? No? Oh well, I need another guard.
   1823. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:23 PM (#4025865)
[1822] Not sure if my sarcasm-meter is broken but I think the NYK plan in building the team and putting its pieces together was pretty obvious. Just because (through 3 games) it hasn't worked out doesn't mean there wasn't a coherent plan.
   1824. madvillain Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#4025879)
Signing Amare was an obvious, solid move by Walsh. Once it was clear Lebron and Bosh were headed to South Beach they made him the priority and it was a good priority.

The 'Melo trade however was just pure lunacy. There were rumors at the time that IT had been in contact with Dolan and in turn, Dolan was pressuring Walsh to get the deal done. Giving up Chandler, Gallo, Mozgov, Felton, the 2014 1st rounder and two 2nd rounders was a King's ransom.

They could have just waited until the offseason and got him for nothing except money, of which they have plenty.

______________________

Caught the 2nd half of the Bulls game. Fairly easy victory with Boozer finally playing well. Rose still looks a bit off. His playmaking is nice to see, but he just doesn't look as sharp overall as he did for the 2nd half last year. Working in Rip has been a bit of a headache, but it's clear Thibs wants Chicago to run more teams out of the gym this year and the chemistry isn't quite there yet. I like what I've seen so far though, it's a style that suits Noah, Gibson, Brewer and Watson nicely and allows them to score when Rose is out of the game.

I don't like Korver. Sure he brings 3 point shooting, but he's such a liability in every other facet at this point.

It's also obvious that Thibs has told Ronnie Brewer to launch at will from the corner when he's open. So far so good as Brewer has connected on a few corner three balls off of Rose drive and kicks.
   1825. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:43 PM (#4025882)
Celtics home opener tonight against the Pistons; I will be in attendance.

If this one starts like the last three, you'll be able to hear me pressing the panic button from wherever you are.
   1826. JJ1986 Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:47 PM (#4025883)
If the Knicks had just kept Felton they'd be a much more complete team now and it seems like Denver didn't really want him.
   1827. Spivey Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:00 PM (#4025893)
The Knicks would be a much more complete team if they had signed a bag of peanut sweepings instead of Mike ####### Bibby. I still generally like how the Knicks were built - yeah, it's a poor man's version of the Heat, but let's not act like that was ever an option. I think Toney Douglas is a nice player. Balkman actually looked like he was playing good defense on Kobe during the highlights I saw, Kobe was just making ridiculous shots. The team probably should have dealt Fields instead of Gallo though.

They got worse with giving up everything they gave to get Melo last year, but IIRC someone in here pointed out a lot of those guys were about to get expensive (or were already). I think it was a solid long term deal.

I don't think we have any reason to think they had the assets for Paul or Howard, given how the Paul situation went down. They made the best of a not-great situation IMO.
   1828. JC in DC Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:09 PM (#4025897)
I'm not a fan of Carmelo, but of all that stuff traded for him, what do we actually expect to pan out or be better than him? I see a lot of chaff. Maybe Gallo gets good? But of what I saw of him, good outside shooter, horrible defender and rebounder, limited ability to create own shot. Chandler is stuck in China and while he's got talent, there's no fire in his belly and sometimes he just gets lost. Felton's meh, second rounders are crapshoots. Maybe the first round pick will be something, more likely more chaff. The trade was utterly defensible. The Chandler signing was a good one. They have a very weak backcourt right now. Shumpert's gonna get some play. Let's give this a month before we pass judgment.
   1829. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:12 PM (#4025898)
I actually see nothing to read into Boston's record. Their outlook is unchanged. The NO game was a "schedule loss" (there will be some of those for most teams this year)and they looked OK against New York and Miami. I also don't think Boston cares where they are seeded.

IIRC No one else mentioned this, so I thought I would. Hollinger flatly asserted that the first two games showed, in and of themselves, that Dallas is not a serious contender. Using several examples,he showed that teams that are:

a) Healthy
b) Headed for a title

Simply do not get blown away at home like that, particularly twice in a row.

There are obvious caveats--Miami's stars, Miami's desire to make a statement, Denver's depth/speed, the short camp.

My own observations are that Chandler was hugely important to everything that team did. People knew that, but might have underestimated it. Also, it looked to me like several players--notably Odom--are just not in basketball shape right now. There were concerns about Odom's conditioning all summer and fall in Lakerland. There may also be some "1965 Yankees" stuff going on--"everybody got old at the same time."

They did of course play better vs. OKC--a better matchup for them than Denver is, actually.
   1830. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:17 PM (#4025902)
The Knicks will look a lot different if/when they have Davis and Shumpert. The problem is that Davis may not be back for a long time, may not be in shape, etc.

The worry I see with the Knicks is Stoudemire. He has to be a top-30-35 guy for this to work. Right now, he isn't.

I agree about Bibby. He is about like Fisher now, and may actually be worse. Fisher at least is physically strong. Bibby can still shoot a little, but I don't think Bibby belongs in the league any more.
   1831. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:28 PM (#4025906)
Hollinger disagrees with me about Boston:

Through three games, the Celtics are 27th in Defensive Efficiency, and when you dig deeper it's an ugly 27th. Boston's opponents are shooting 49.6 percent from the floor; only Houston is worse, and the Rockets have only played one game.


He says that Boston is giving up a lot more easy baskets, and suggests that the fact that they couldn't stop NO (without Gordon, BTW--Jack and Landry had big nights) shows that there may be a real problem. Didn't write them off but doesn't see 0-3 as meaningless. Not sure I agree with him, but we'll see.

Seems to me that either way, this is yet another mark against the Perkins deal, conceding that Perkins was not himself last year and Miami was almost certainly going to beat them anyway.
   1832. The Essex Snead Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:34 PM (#4025909)
I actually see nothing to read into Boston's record. Their outlook is unchanged. The NO game was a "schedule loss" (there will be some of those for most teams this year)and they looked OK against New York and Miami. I also don't think Boston cares where they are seeded.

Cosign. They lost 2 close games w/out their (2nd?) best player, and then got blasted on their 3rd game in 4 nights when they were even more short-handed. If Pierce is around, they probably handle NYK and don't get down 16+ against MIA. I'd also like to think that they could handle a Gordon-less Hornets team, but who knows.

Question: why do some folks (talking heads, mostly) (maybe just Barkley?) always mention Stevenson w/ Chandler in discussing the Mavs' losses this off-season, but don't make any mention of Caron Butler? Granted, Stevenson (mostly) played well in Butler's absence, but I'm pretty sure Dallas would be in the same boat they're currently in if DS stayed in town.
   1833. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 08:37 PM (#4025910)
Well, basically because Butler missed the post-season. I got into a mild disagreement about that here last spring, saying that I didn't think Dallas would miss Butler very much. One can argue that they would have been even better with him, of course, but that would seem to be a moot point.

As expected, some Boston fans are really on Hollinger's case in the comments section for his piece. One note about Boston D: Lawrence Frank, who took over for Thibodeau, is now the Detroit coach. Might be something to watch as the season continues.
   1834. madvillain Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:43 PM (#4025951)
I'm not a fan of Carmelo, but of all that stuff traded for him, what do we actually expect to pan out or be better than him? I see a lot of chaff. Maybe Gallo gets good? But of what I saw of him, good outside shooter, horrible defender and rebounder, limited ability to create own shot. Chandler is stuck in China and while he's got talent, there's no fire in his belly and sometimes he just gets lost. Felton's meh, second rounders are crapshoots. Maybe the first round pick will be something, more likely more chaff. The trade was utterly defensible. The Chandler signing was a good one. They have a very weak backcourt right now. Shumpert's gonna get some play. Let's give this a month before we pass judgment.


It's not an exact correlation, but the Knicks had a worse record after the trade last year, and this year is just continuing that trend. It's super early, I agree.

As for the "chaff", Gallo is a high upside player for a number of reasons. He's a stretch 4 that can put it on the floor. He battled injuries that hampered his mobility in his first two years. He's young (23) and proven a decent starter (~16 per). He's an asset and IMO he'll make a few all-star teams, top out around a 21 PER guy, and be a good 3rd option on a contender. Those guys are valuable.

Chandler was a RFA if I recall correctly, so his value was limited, but he's a solid rotation player who can guard multiple positions. Felton, same story, not a great contract but a solid starter. Mozgov, probably never anything more than a 9th man, but a big body, useful to have at the end of the bench. The picks are what they are and that's assets the Knicks no longer have.

Taken together I think that's a hell of a lot to give up for a player in 'Melo that's just outside the top 10. If Melo was a two way, certified top 5 player, sure, but he's just not.
   1835. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:48 PM (#4025954)
[1822] Not sure if my sarcasm-meter is broken but I think the NYK plan in building the team and putting its pieces together was pretty obvious. Just because (through 3 games) it hasn't worked out doesn't mean there wasn't a coherent plan.


I was defending the Knicks at length the other day. I think they will be good, probably about the 4th seed. I'm just making a joke that they have a surprising number of guys who are either overrated or oddly recognizable to casual fans.

My own observations are that Chandler was hugely important to everything that team did. People knew that, but might have underestimated it


He was, but they were extremely successful before he got there too. If they are 12-15 or something down the road, I suspect that we'll be focusing more on the age thing. Kidd and VC look like toast in the small bit we've seen.
   1836. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#4025960)
Chandler was a RFA if I recall correctly, so his value was limited, but he's a solid rotation player who can guard multiple positions. Felton, same story, not a great contract but a solid starter.


Plus, there's always the chance that the RFA leverage allows you to sign the guy for a decent, below-market value, either through the QO or just because other teams are afraid you'll match.
   1837. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#4025961)
Taken together I think that's a hell of a lot to give up for a player in 'Melo that's just outside the top 10.

Heh.
   1838. madvillain Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:11 PM (#4025965)
NJ, I'm not so sure I'm right on that so I know this is pedantic but

Lebron
Dwight
Paul
Durant
Wade
Rose
Dirk
Kobe
Williams
Melo

He's right there for sure and after the top 6 I can see any number of permutations. It's alot to give up though given that with some back channel planning and patience they probably could have gotten him in the offseason. I know it's a pointless hypothetical, and fortune favors the bold, but in hindsight, I just don't like the deal.
   1839. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:15 PM (#4025967)
Lebron
Dwight
76ers
Paul
Durant
Wade
Rose
Dirk
Rubio
Kobe
Williams
Melo


FTFY
   1840. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:35 PM (#4025978)
[1838] You think a lot more highly of Melo than I do. POOMA he's somewhere around 20.
   1841. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:40 PM (#4025980)
They were certainly successful before Chandler, but they didn't win--and I think you can ask how good they would have been last year without him. Agile, 7' defensive anchors have a cascade effect, so to speak, on both ends, particularly when they are surrounded by scorers.
   1842. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 30, 2011 at 11:07 PM (#4025998)
FTFY
dwight howard's PER is 22.1
spencer hawes' is 21.9.

both players are free agents at the end of the year. i'm thinking sign and trade.
   1843. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 11:32 PM (#4026009)
They were certainly successful before Chandler, but they didn't win--and I think you can ask how good they would have been last year without him. Agile, 7' defensive anchors have a cascade effect, so to speak, on both ends, particularly when they are surrounded by scorers.


Sure, and I think it makes a difference. They won 50+ regular season games like clockwork and didn't win in the playoffs. Without him, they have lost a few regular season games and are far from even starting the playoffs. All I mean is that there's more at play than just him.
   1844. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 11:46 PM (#4026014)
All I mean is that there's more at play than just him.


Yeah, but I think over the course of the year, if Dallas is really in fact in trouble, not having Chandler will be the main thing. The other problem is how completely awful Odom has looked--his PER is actually a negative number at the moment.
   1845. robinred Posted: December 30, 2011 at 11:59 PM (#4026016)
BrianCardinalBrian Cardinal
“@AustinLeach: Where can I buy a @BrianCardinal Mavs jersey?
#thecustodian”(save your money bro get a couple extra brews at the game instead
   1846. mike f Posted: December 31, 2011 at 02:50 AM (#4026066)
Glen Davis is just brutally awful.
   1847. madvillain Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:19 AM (#4026075)
Glen Davis is just brutally awful.


Yes he is. The Celtics were smart to dump him ASAP. His game should be based on hustle and garbage points, but he seems to fancy himself something of a scoring playmaker. He's not. At all.
   1848. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:55 AM (#4026096)
Okay. I'm a believer in Ricky Rubio now.
   1849. Into the Void Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:05 AM (#4026097)
Okay. I'm a believer in Ricky Rubio now.


Was just about to post something similar. Currently at 11 assists in 24 minutes in his third game.
   1850. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:07 AM (#4026099)
Jeez, what a pass. Rubio has eyes in the back of his head. It's only been a few games, but that guys got video game court vision.
   1851. JuanGone..except1game Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:08 AM (#4026100)
Glen Davis is just brutally awful.


Just a terrible, terrible trade. I've heard that he's friends with Howard and so he was set to replace Arenas as team bff.

Okay. I'm a believer in Ricky Rubio now.


Just made just an unbelievable pass to Tolliver. Vision is the one skill that I'd rather have in a PG, and he's the only young guy in a few years who has it.
   1852. JuanGone..except1game Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:12 AM (#4026101)
Coke to LA
   1853. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:28 AM (#4026106)
So close and yet so far for Minny, again.
   1854. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:38 AM (#4026111)
Sigh... Is it possible to have 3 straight encouraging losses? We may be up to 6 soon with the schedule.

Rubio ws just a revelation for those who didn't watch. I know, I know, that is an overreaction. If you compare him to the PG play in MN the last few years, though, it might be an understatement. He controlled the whole game going both ways (not that he's a great defender, but he turns from D to O so freaking fast that you have to keep guys back a bit) and moves the ball so creatively that it is really hard to set a defense. He had 5 TOs to go with 12 ASTs, but a couple of those turnovers were just teammates not expecting a pass and losing it. He even shot the ball quite well and did a very good job with shot selection.

Love played well. Anthony Tolliver (who looks a lot like Leon from Curb- JB Smoove) finished over Beasley since Beas CANNOT guard Lebron (hence 16-26 from the field). He played ok though he missed 2 FTs down the stretch. Anthony Randolph is a totally different player with Rubio finding him cutting and moving.

There were also some tough breaks down the stretch. Randolph got called for a charge on Battier that could have gone either way; savvy play by Battier though. Then Lebron got an and-1 after putting his shoulder into Leon and knocking him over. Very questionable (not necessarily wrong, it is a judgment call, but certainly questionable). The most frustrating was a possession where they defended for 22 seconds, then Wade made a step back 22 footer with a hand in his face. Losing him on the in bound alley oop hurts too, youthful defensive lapse.

So, again, encouraging loss. Would have been nice to get a W though. MN is probably the only team in the league who can have its biggest win in 4 years in December.
   1855. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:38 AM (#4026112)
You have to figure that one is going to keep Adelman awake tonight. The Wolves are going to be fun this season, but I don't know that they'll get too many shots to beat teams like the Heat in that dramatic a fashion. Rubio has been living up to the hype about as well as possible so far.
   1856. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:02 AM (#4026119)
   1857. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:42 AM (#4026129)
Jazz beat the 76ers! I'm going to have to rethink their chances this year if they can beat that juggernaut.

Anyway, Favors was headed to the bench, but Jefferson was a late scratch so Favors started at the 5. Only 3 fouls in 38 minutes and he scored 20, grabbed 11 boards, and came up huge late in the game with a tip in and great help defense at the rim. I know I should not draw too much from one game, but Jazz' defense looked a lot better than the previous two games when Jefferson was at the 5.

Hayward added 15 and looked like he did at the end of last season (when I stopped hating his selection). Kanter didn't play much still, but had two great post moves (converted on one) and a nice putback dunk.

The win was nice, but much more important was how these three played. The Jazz are a bad team, but if Favors, Kanter, and Hayward develop it should still be an exciting season.
   1858. madvillain Posted: December 31, 2011 at 07:08 AM (#4026143)
Derrick Rose against Paul tonight: 29 pts on 14 shots with 16 assists, 8 boards, 1 stl against 4 TO.

What a great basketball game all around tonight. Clippers are so exciting. Deanndre Jordan plays like the hoop is a nurf one. Griffin is Griffin. Paul has vision and sense of geometry like few ever.

Chicago put on a championship level performance tonight. Starting from Rose down, it was high level.
   1859. PJ Martinez Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:18 AM (#4026151)
1858: Agreed. Fun game. Bulls were excellent, Rose in particular.

Paul-Griffin-Jordan is great, and Butler looks okay. LAC needs to round out that roster, though.
   1860. robinred Posted: December 31, 2011 at 10:19 AM (#4026158)
The best line about Rubio that I have heard is still the one attributed anonymously to a scout: "He is a combination of Justin Bieber and Pete Maravich." They were chanting his name in Minnesota tonight--just like he was The Bieber.

And that's not a putdown; I would suggest that all the RubioRooters check out some of the youtube videos of Maravich's craziest passes. The similarities are uncanny.

LAAFP--just sent you an email.
   1861. JuanGone..except1game Posted: December 31, 2011 at 10:45 AM (#4026159)
Paul-Griffin-Jordan is great, and Butler looks okay. LAC needs to round out that roster, though.


Jordan is a great shot blocker, but he just doesn't look like he knows how to play basketball. He's great for highlights, but I'd rather have Hibbert, Gortat or even McGee than him

And that's not a putdown; I would suggest that all the RubioRooters check out some of the youtube videos of Maravich's craziest passes. The similarities are uncanny.


I take a measure of pride in never getting off of the Rubio bandwagon. People overrate shooting for PGs. Magic would have been one of the greatest, even if he never developed his shooting mid career. If you have great vision like Rubio has shown at every stop, you'll make your team better both offensively and defensively. It's to bad that he couldn't have wiggled his way out of Minny, as I think Kahn is going to limit that team's potential.
   1862. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:06 PM (#4026209)
Catching up after a couple of days away...

The Celtics are older, the Bulls will regress, the Knicks are the Knicks (not a compliment), Orlando has worse personnel. There's plenty of room for the Pacers to play well.

This bolded part is presented as fact - not just here, but elsewhere - but I'm not convinced it's true. I mean, going through the Bulls roster there aren't many candidates for regression (Rose, sure, but as talked about many times he's not at his peak yet, etc...) and in fact, I see more arguments for why they should be better than last year than for reasons why they'll regress. I understand the statistical definition here. Now, as to the Pacers and Bulls (not that this post is saying the Pacers have a shot at the Bulls, but Whitlock is saying it), the Bulls finished 25 games ahead of them last season; does anyone see a combo of a 25 game improvement for Ind and regression for the Bulls? I thought I was the one highest on the Pacers coming into the season (at least here; I have them going to the 2nd round), but they've underwhelmed me so far (both preseason losses to the Bulls and their 3 close games against 3 of the worst teams in the league.

After watching them for 6 minutes, I feel safe saying the Blazers were hugely underrated by almost everyone.

Guilty. I think I was the only one here to not predict them in the playoffs. I may have missed badly on that.

Caught the 2nd half of the Bulls game. Fairly easy victory with Boozer finally playing well. Rose still looks a bit off. His playmaking is nice to see, but he just doesn't look as sharp overall as he did for the 2nd half last year. Working in Rip has been a bit of a headache, but it's clear Thibs wants Chicago to run more teams out of the gym this year and the chemistry isn't quite there yet. I like what I've seen so far though, it's a style that suits Noah, Gibson, Brewer and Watson nicely and allows them to score when Rose is out of the game.

I don't like Korver. Sure he brings 3 point shooting, but he's such a liability in every other facet at this point.

It's also obvious that Thibs has told Ronnie Brewer to launch at will from the corner when he's open. So far so good as Brewer has connected on a few corner three balls off of Rose drive and kicks.


This post was after the Sacremento game and before the Clippers game. That Sac game was terribly officiated, which got me wondering how the schedule might effect the officials - same things that will get the players: less preseason, more games, less rest, etc. I'm with you on Korver though, Matt. The Bulls need shooters, but I'm thinking he's a net negative right about now.

The Bulls defense played better last night that all season, but only in stretches. I've been surprised in the regression there (to go back to my first part of this post; the team defense and help/rotation has been poor so far). I thought Rose played great individual defense on Paul (much better than Paul on him), but the team let him down on a number of easy alley oop passes off the pick and roll (which, by the way, the Clippers are really over-reliant on, and have few options off that play if it's stopped, but that's VDN for you). However, the last 2 games have helped with my fears about the offense - they do go through stretches where the plays run focus too hard on getting one specific guy a shot (be it Boozer or Hamilton), but I can see how there are secondary options and the big key is the Bulls are running a lot more and harder off turnovers, misses, and makes. They should be more of a transition team with a guy like Rose leading the break.
   1863. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:23 PM (#4026219)
This bolded part is presented as fact - not just here, but elsewhere - but I'm not convinced it's true. I mean, going through the Bulls roster there aren't many candidates for regression (Rose, sure, but as talked about many times he's not at his peak yet, etc...) and in fact, I see more arguments for why they should be better than last year than for reasons why they'll regress.
...
The Bulls defense played better last night that all season, but only in stretches. I've been surprised in the regression there (to go back to my first part of this post; the team defense and help/rotation has been poor so far)
I mean, they improved by over 5 points of defensive efficiency in one year. That seems like the sort of thing that should be projected to regress to the mean.
   1864. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:41 PM (#4026250)
Jazz beat the 76ers!
they had a 13 point lead about 2 minutes into the 2nd quarter, and then the game just poofed.


i'll take the loss (it's a terrible loss, but there's 63 more games in the season (and ####### hell i hope i don't have to say that again for a long time)), but it's just incredibly frustrating when iguodala gets to the line for 2 FTs when the team's down 1 with about 3 minutes left in the game, and then misses both FTs like he's deandre jordan. the guy is 9/13 from beyond the arc this year, so i'm gonna give him a whole lot of slack, but 2/5 from the FT is unacceptable from anyone, let alone someone who expects to be the primary facilitator in late game situations.


also, i believe spencer hawes went off for 15 and 13, and added another 3 blocks.
   1865. madvillain Posted: December 31, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#4026306)
I mean, they improved by over 5 points of defensive efficiency in one year. That seems like the sort of thing that should be projected to regress to the mean.


Maybe, but they also went from arguably the worst defensive coach (VDN) in the league to the bet (Thibs). That's the sort of thing in basketball that has no direct analogue to baseball: coaching matters, big time.
   1866. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 31, 2011 at 07:51 PM (#4026313)
That's the sort of thing in basketball that has no direct analogue to baseball: coaching matters, big time.
Coaching matters in baseball, too - see the career of Billy Martin, for one. I think betting on regression to the mean, after a massive team-wide spike in defensive quality, is still a smart decision. It's very unusual for a team in any sport to suddenly become the best in the world at offense or defense and then maintain that level of play into the next season.
   1867. madvillain Posted: December 31, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#4026317)
I think betting on regression to the mean, after a massive team-wide spike in defensive quality, is still a smart decision. It's very unusual for a team in any sport to suddenly become the best in the world at offense or defense and then maintain that level of play into the next season.


Are you seriously arguing that the head coach matters as much in baseball as basketball? As for the regression point, sure, all numbers regress to the mean. If Chicago does regress in ppp it's going to be partly because this year they are trying to run more.

I don't think we can reduce something this complex to "regression to the mean" and call it a day. The beauty of basketball, and it differs from easily demarcated sports like baseball (and to an extent football), is in the organic, "black box" outcomes.

With the synergy data and 82games and Hollinger we can begin to understand the what and how of it, but we are a long way from the why.
   1868. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:19 PM (#4026323)
I don't think we can reduce something this complex to "regression to the mean" and call it a day.
I'm not "calling it a day". I'm utterly fascinated by the how and the why.

I could say that I don't think it's sufficient to say "they have a new coach" and call it a day, either. If there is a complete and systematic explanation of both (a) how the Bulls improved their defense and (b) why that improvement is entirely sustainable, I'd be fascinated to see it. I think we're all working from a position of relative ignorance - though admittedly you've surely watched more Bulls games than I have - and when I don't have the level of expert knowledge and analysis to discard regression to the mean as a null hypothesis, I'd still bet on regression.
   1869. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#4026327)
I'm pretty sure it's both those things in this case.

***

Let's slow down with the Rubiogasms - his NBA career is 85 min old. Going into the year, he looks like a savvy kid, great playmaker, solid rebounder, useful defender, and lousy shooter/finisher. Is today so different? - the only "surprise" is that he's 8-for-13 from the field.
   1870. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#4026336)
I'm pretty sure it's both those things in this case.
Oh, certainly. But unless you argue that it's almost entirely coaching, you need to expect some level of decline.
Let's slow down with the Rubiogasms - his NBA career is 85 min old. Going into the year, he looks like a savvy kid, great playmaker, solid rebounder, useful defender, and lousy shooter/finisher. Is today so different? - the only "surprise" is that he's 8-for-13 from the field.
I think going from the hope that he's a "great playmaker" to watching him make great plays against some of the best teams in the NBA is a pretty substantial change. The reports of Rubio's recent Euro career didn't offer any certainty about his playmaking skills.

Plus, I've always found playmakers to be the most fun players to watch. I think that there may be outsize love for his particular skills because you see the beauty of the game when you watch someone do what Rubio can do.
   1871. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#4026348)
To be clear - I *really* like watching Rubio play and was a proponent of his on draft day.

The reports of Rubio's recent Euro career didn't offer any certainty about his playmaking skills.

The reports I recall all centered on his jumper and ability to finish (where I initially expected he'd clear up the first issue (becoming average) and improve the latter from atrocious to subpar); his ability to create for others has never been in doubt. Whether he'd improve from where he was on draft day (and indeed, his stats had declined - how much of that was moving from Joventut to a Barcelona club that didn't showcase him) was unknown.

Reminder: he shot 31% from the floor for Barcelona in Euroleague play last season and 33% in ACB action. He's better than that but yeesh.
   1872. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#4026351)
Going into the year, he looks like a savvy kid, great playmaker, solid rebounder, useful defender, and lousy shooter/finisher.


I think the enthusiasm is in response to the people who said he'd be a huge bust and never survive in the NBA. I think 20-30% of predictions I read essentially said that he was incapable of ever playing a game as good as his third one ever.
   1873. robinred Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#4026354)
I think going from the hope that he's a "great playmaker" to watching him make great plays against some of the best teams in the NBA is a pretty substantial change


___

Conceding that I don't follow Euroball, I don't really think of Rubio as a rookie, in the sense that he has been playing professionally since he was about 16, and has played on big international stages, etc. I expected him to start off well, and like DK I don't see his early performance as a huge deal either way. We are in a PG era; Rubio is a PG with some obvious gifts, particularly his court vision. His doing well with the strengths and weaknesses that were clear going in is not some basketball miracle. A lot of Wolves' fans are touchy about him; getting one of your guys and your GM in Simmons' cross-hairs does that to a fanbase, as I have shown myself with my own behavior. Zach Harper, a Wolves' fan and blogger, wrote a very defensive screed about Rubio after one game, about how he has been defending Rubio the last two years, etc saying more or less See? SEE? We were right--he WOULD sign here and he IS going to be a good player. So that's part of it.

His passing is a lot of fun to watch.

The Wolves, incidentally, have six top 5 lottery picks on their current roster and either 8 or 9 (have seen diff numbers--too lazy to check) lottery picks total. Looking at top teams to compare, OKC has three top 5 guys and so does Miami. All top 5 guys are of course not created equal (Darko, anyone?) but Minnesota SHOULD be a competitive team at this point. And they are. BaskPro metrics have them being about as good as the Lakers and the last time I looked, with a shot at the 8th seed.
   1874. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:21 PM (#4026355)
And they now have Adelman.

Serious question: who doubted Rubio to the extent cited in 1872 - anyone we should take seriously? I see his floor as a smarter, taller Bassy Telfair. (and i don't like telfair)
   1875. madvillain Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:22 PM (#4026358)
Luol Deng quietly off to a great start: 18.5/8/2.5 on 49% from the floor with some steals and blocks as well. His defense, with his long arms and solid lateral quickness, is lockdown at times on the perimeter. He's the quintessential 3rd option on a championship level team. The question is if Boozer and or Rose's greatness can offset the lack of a championship level sidekick.
   1876. robinred Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#4026362)
I think 20-30% of predictions I read essentially said that he was incapable of ever playing a game as good as his third one ever.


See below and above. Rubio's flashy play and teen idol status made a lot of people say weird things about him, and I think there is a Simmons effect--the guy has millions of readers.

I agree with DK. The knocks against Rubio are that he can't shoot and can't finish. But there was no reason to believe that Rubio was going to show up tripping over his shoelaces and dribbling with two hands. The guy was on the court with the Gasol brothers for Spain at age 18, holding his own against the 2008 US Olympic team. His shooting will cool off, and we will see how defenses adjust.

But his passing--the guy has a wonderful gift, simple as that, and as Kahn envsioned, Minnesota's crop of young tweener forwards with some ups make a great set of targets.

Incidentally, Simmons promised a year or so ago to go to a Wolves game wearing a Rubio jersey if Rubio actually signed in Minnesota.
   1877. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#4026363)
I wish there was a better way to track down sources but there were absolutely "expert" predictions of that type. I admit I'm overly defensive, but as rr said, it's a reaction to many attacks.
   1878. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#4026366)
I found a couple of old espn polls from this fall. 66% said it was a wasted pick in one, 33% said he'd be a bust in another.
   1879. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#4026368)
@ 1803
The Nuggets think Mosgov can be a serviceable center, in the 10/10 range. Karl is untied to doing the conventional as any coach in the league, so I don't think they are starting the Russkie just because he looks like a center.
However, what Karl loves to do, and has the personnel to do, is set lineups that force bad match-ups. So, playing Mosgov for first 4 minutes of a period gives him a chance to change the pace and put out a lineup with 3 or 4 players that are too fast or too athletic for the man guarding him.
This worked really well v. Dallas and Utah, and I think should work great this weekend against the Lakers, who don't have the point guards or small forwards to guard the Nuggets.
Besides the fact that Denver shot 4-20 in 3-pointers v. Portland, the other thing that hurt them was that the Blazers are athletic enough (and were fresh enough) to hang with Denver.
   1880. robinred Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#4026372)
Those are the same polls that say Kobe is better than LeBron.

I get where you are coming from here--I am the guy who has been chastised for biatching too much about Simmons and Abbott--but I think if you step back and look at Rubio's history, skills, background, etc. some early success is not that surprising. I am not surprised at all.

And while I know it is just one game in unique circumstances, in looking at Rubio, I always flash on the 2008 Gold Medal game. Any guy who can play in that game at 18 and not look stupid...well, he's got something.
   1881. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#4026374)
Okay, I wasn't necessarily looking for documentation - but, yeah, I meant something more credible than ESPN polls. :)

For those who caught last night's LAC/CHI game (where Deng did look pretty good) - I liked how callers responding to WGN's question of "who will have the most assists tonight", picked (making up #s here): Rose 50%, Billups 30%, Paul 15%, CJ Watson 5%. By the way, this was after noting that Billups would not play.
   1882. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 31, 2011 at 10:47 PM (#4026396)
Serious question: who doubted Rubio to the extent cited in 1872 - anyone we should take seriously? I see his floor as a smarter, taller Bassy Telfair. (and i don't like telfair)
i don't think it would have been an unreasonable opinion to say he would never amount to anything in the NBA.

he just wasn't good when he was playing with his club team in spain, and while there were reasons (excuses) for that being the case (most notably that he was forced to play off the ball because he was playing alongside a well-respected veteran guard (i want to say juan carlos navarro)), it was still a fact that he did not play well over there. there were flashes of greatness, and he had the whole A/R/L thing going for him, but still, his success, even his success through only these 3 games, was not a given.
   1883. robinred Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:05 PM (#4026398)
Hollinger compared Rubio to Darrell Walker in his preseason stuff
--I am sure that he has already gotten a few notes about that in his inbox. I thought the comp odd because of Rubio's passing ability.

I think while it is fair to note Rubio's troubles in Europe, that should be balanced a bit by his professional experience, etc. He is used to playing with guys older than he is, playing for money, etc. Also, Minnesota is a good situation for him in many ways.

If I were a Minnesota fan, I would be concerned that Rubio will have trouble after opponents get him scouted, have some video etc. He does have weaknesses. Rubio will adjust too of course, but I don't see it as a straight climb from here to greatness.

Note to DK:

Bynum getting a lot of touches in his first game back; already has an 18/6 halfway through the 3rd. Kobe has 8 AST.
   1884. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:49 PM (#4026414)
Bynum is dominating the game. He is going to be tough to stop when he remains healthy because Brown seems intent on getting him very involved, even when other guys are dominating the ball (seemingly to Pau's detriment, but that's a close call right now).

Denver has made a lot of mistakes down the stretch. Nene missed a dunk and got another close shot blocked, Lawson missed 2 FTs, and Gallinari just can't shoot right now. Looks like they're going to blow this game, but it's not the end of the world for them.
   1885. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#4026415)
As soon as I said that, Gallo whiffed on a fastbreak layup that was almost uncontested (or as Lakers guy said, unmolested).
   1886. Davo Dozier Posted: January 01, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4026424)
That was tough to watch. Feel bad for that guy.
   1887. robinred Posted: January 01, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4026432)
Like I have said: Kobe's hand injuries are a much bigger problem than his knees. The wrist/fingers mean they need to go all Abbotty and bail on the Kobe dribbling and launching off isos in crunch time. I would like to see Kobe posting up or coming off picks late if he is going to take the shot. That will be a tough one for Brown.

Lakers did a good job of keeping the pace down; Denver made mistakes down the stretch. Blog action tonight in Lakerland before the New Year's Eve parties start will include people demanding Howard for Bynum straight up, people saying Bynum should not be traded at all, people saying that Kobe's shot selection will wreck the team and people saying those people are full of it.
   1888. Spivey Posted: January 01, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4026443)
I agree with the Rubiogasm crowd. It's kind of how I feel about the Rangers signing Yu Darvish. I think he's going to be good. I expect him to be good. But if he *is* as good as I'm thinking/expecting, it will still be an accomplishment. Adjusting to the NBA is not something that's easy. Is the Spanish league really much better than top level college basketball play? Maybe it is, but it's also nowhere near the NBA. Adjusting to the top level of competition in sports has made busts of many a prospect.
   1889. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 01, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4026449)
Quite a line for World Peace vs. DEN: No points on 0-for-8 shooting, four turnovers, two defensive boards and an assist. Hollinger Game Score: -8.3.
   1890. robinred Posted: January 01, 2012 at 01:42 AM (#4026458)
"When he got on the court and played, you were like, 'This kid can be good,' " Wade said of that gold medal game at the 2008 Beijing Games. "At 17, I couldn't have played in that kind of [game]. I wasn't that advanced at that age to play in the Olympic Games and be effective, as he was. Obviously, he's still young and he has a very, very bright future."

Rubio, at that young age, started at point guard for injured Jose Calderon that day for Spain alongside Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro against a U.S. team that also featured Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard.

"Yes, long time ago, right?" Rubio said Friday when asked about that game. "Almost four years already. I grow up as a player and learn more things. It was great. One of the best games ever, because we played good and they really played good, too. I watch that again sometimes. It's fun to watch again because it was a great game."

He played more than 28 minutes and delivered six points, three assists, six rebounds, three steals and two turnovers, a game that further embellished a reputation that began when he first played professionally at age 14.


http://www.startribune.com/sports/wolves/136481423.html

Rubio didn't come to the NBA from a prep school in Barcelona. I think people sometimes forget that.
   1891. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 01, 2012 at 02:39 AM (#4026480)
Oh, I followed Bynum today. Probably snatched me victory from the jaws of fantasy defeat.

Rubio played pretty well w/ Barcelona, apart from the shooting, and was at minimum an average Euro even w/ it. Part of his deal is that his game always looked better suited to the states than Euroball, in every possible sense of the phrase (rules on hand checks, how assists are recorded, tempo, and so on).

As for role, how would a young (lesser) Kidd or, to invoke Hollinger, Darrell Walker type do spotting up in the corner?

(Darrell Walker was a fave of mine at peak, btw. I used to underrate the ability to spread the floor... Regardless, nowhere near this good a passer.)
   1892. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: January 01, 2012 at 04:29 AM (#4026509)
so, the sixers opened the 3rd quarter with a 13-1 run, and are now up 20, after having previously been down 13.

still can't shoot a ####### FT, though. 8/19 so far today. that's really beyond unacceptable.
   1893. JC in DC Posted: January 01, 2012 at 04:38 AM (#4026512)
I liked Darrell Walker as well. The next Moncrief.

Quick hits from NYK-Sac game:
- a bad harbinger for Fredette: he couldn't guard Landry Fields;
- Jeremy Lin is not a pro-level PG: I'm surprised how poorly he handles the ball;
- I kinda like Josh Harrelson;
- Sacramento is pretty damned horrible. Blown out at home by NYK with no Amare, no Shumpert, and no Davis. They looked quit.
   1894. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 01, 2012 at 04:56 AM (#4026518)
Oooooh Moncrief.
For me with Walker, it was the year he was a 9.6/8.9/8.1 w/ great D for DC that really grabbed me. Career 5.9% (6-102) shooter from three, which is kind of amazing. I wonder if that's a record, given at least 100 attempts (yeah, I'm setting the threshold selectively).

Watching the MAI/RGV d-league game (don't ask), there was a weird moment where the Vipers were only allowed to check in four players - Lee Humphrey sat at the scorers table while Dom Calegari scored for Maine. Eventually, there was a lengthy timeout and Humphrey was allowed in the game but the bucket stood. Not sure why that happened yet, nor was anyone associated with the broadcast.

I like Lin, but he's not a point guard and he can't shoot like a two should - he's just an energy guy. That said, he's really good at being an energy guy - if you can use that sort of thing.

I don't believe in him, but ...JORTS!
   1895. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 01, 2012 at 05:02 AM (#4026521)
My Walker question... it is. Otis Thorpe has the next most 3PA with as low of a career percentage (3-64), Kelvin Ramsey had the worst percentage given at least 100 attempts (20-152, 13.2%).
   1896. andrewberg Posted: January 01, 2012 at 05:11 AM (#4026523)
Jeremy Tyler just got his first NBA bucket on a goal tend . Gstate is pretty abysmal. No monta highlights their atrocious depth.
   1897. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: January 01, 2012 at 05:14 AM (#4026524)
- I kinda like Josh Harrelson;
i was a fan of his before the draft.


i'm just curious, but is it usual for an NBA game to end after 2:13. that seems a bit short.
   1898. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 01, 2012 at 05:31 AM (#4026526)
Building on @1895 - this is indulgent, forgive me - here's a chain of the "worst" three point shooters in NBA history. By this, I mean that no player shot a lower percentage in more attempts than the guys listed here.
Michael Cage (0-25), Franklin Edwards (1-33 3.0%), Gene Banks (2-46 4.3%), Thorpe, Walker, Ramsey, Avery Johnson (27-186 14.5%), Dennis Johnson (80-464 17.2%), Andre Miller (141-683 20.6%), Theus (238-945 25.2%), Barkley (538-2020 26.6%), Stackhouse (945-3076 30.7%), Iverson (1059-3383 31.3%), Payton (1132-3570 31.7%), Vernon Maxwell (1256-3931 32.0%), Baron Davis (1306-4074 32.1%), Antoine Walker (1386-4264 32.5%), Kidd (1805-5176 34.9% - Kidd's third all time in 3PA, so I thought I'd stop there).

2:13 is a bit short - normally around 2:30 or so.
   1899. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: January 01, 2012 at 06:07 AM (#4026528)
that game really could have turned out differently.

hawes had another double-double-14 and 12.

brand and iguodala filled the statsheet. brand with 7 and 6, with 4 assists and 5 steals. iguodala had 14, 8, and 7.

the bench (lou, thad, ET, and vucevic) scored 55 points on 18/33 shooting.

the team as a whole shot 11/20 from beyond the arc, and iguodala actually had his seasonal percentage drop as he went 3/5 from that range.

let's just not talk about the FT shooting.


anyway, things i'd like to see:
-collins being more willing to utilize his personnel. in 3 of the 4 games on this road trip, the team has fallen behind by double-digits as his first unit gets run off the floor. with how much the organization talks up their bench, saying they really have 8 starters, collins really has to be much more willing to go outside of his usual substitution patterns when the opposition is in the middle of a big run. they have the depth, they need to use it.

-the team use something other than a man-to-man defense. the team really has been very good on that end of the floor (aside from stretches where the opponents hit multiple consecutive jump shots), but i don't think they've zoned up or pressed or trapped a single time this season. their base defense is very good, but i think they could be great* (or at least as great as is possible in the absence of an elite rim defender) if they'd focus at least a little more on trying to disrupt the flow of the opponent's offense.

-hawes and vucevic on the floor together. i'm not actually sure if that would be successful, but if they could make it work, it'd be a completely different look for the team.

-jodie meeks not play like ####. he's there to do 1 thing--shoot--and he's only hit 3/12 shots from beyond the arc. he needs to be significantly better than that.


*i'm not sure great is the right word. maybe elite would be better, but i don't think that's right, either.
   1900. smileyy Posted: January 01, 2012 at 08:27 AM (#4026536)
Well, that has to take some of the shine off the Pacers. David West's efficiency thus far has to be a little worrisome. To go back about 50 posts or so, I wasn't in any way suggesting that the Pacers would be better than the Bulls. And now that I think about it, I think the Bulls could look just as good this season even with my expected "regression", as I think a lot of the East (Celtics, Magic) will be worse this year. It's the Heat and the Bulls and a mish-mash of uncertainty and mediocrity. And, IMO, putting the Bulls in the same class as the Heat is a stretch.
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