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Friday, December 02, 2011

NBA THREAD DECEMBER: POST-LOCKOUT

With the lockout over, I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the NBA, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: fractional reserve banking, and Tim Tebow.

rr Posted: December 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM | 3254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: general

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   3201. rr Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:08 PM (#4051707)
deleted
   3202. Into the Void Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4051712)
I sometimes feel that if a certain player is starting on a team, there is no way that team will win a championship- Vince Carter would be a great example. I'm starting to feel that way about Carlos Boozer.
   3203. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:25 PM (#4051714)
To follow up on my Hawes comment... I just saw his Hollinger profile, which I must've subliminally set to memory:


What do you suppose it would take for this guy to draw a foul? Hawes only averaged 0.15 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, which was the fifth-worst among centers, but even that sells short the rarity of his achievement. For a young 7-footer to be this contact-averse is truly remarkable.

Consider this: Only three times since the NBA/ABA merger has a 7-footer aged 24 or younger played at least 20 minutes a game while averaging fewer than 0.17 free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

The three times?

• Spencer Hawes, 2008-09
• Spencer Hawes, 2009-10
• Spencer Hawes, 2010-11

Hawes at least improved his rebound rate last season, but he's essentially turning into the new Rasho Nesterovic -- an otherwise moderately effective midrange shooting big man whose offensive impact suffers from a comically low free throw rate. As a result, Hawes' true shooting percentage was just 48.1 last season and annually ranks among the worst at the center position.

When I wrote my other bit, I looked in bb-ref to see if any post player in NBA history took as many twos and as few free throws as Hawes in a career of his length. None had (though Rasho had a worse ratio with fewer attempts from each) - hence that mention.
   3204. steagles Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4051717)
2 things:

bulls: 17 turnovers
sixers: 10 turnovers

bulls: 37 rebounds
sixers: 43 rebounds


also, lavoy allen: 15 points on 7/10 shooting. 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, +16 in 26 minutes. i really could not have been more wrong about him.
   3205. smileyy Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4051719)
Andre the Giant pranked Haystack (650 lbs) by spiking his food with ex-lax on a flight so he had to do his business in the stewardess area because he couldn't fit in the bathroom. Metta World Peace went into the wrong business.


That makes me wish Rick Majerus could have managed the two as a tag team.
   3206. steagles Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4051720)
didn't rasho have really short arms?

Marreese Speights @Mospeights16
Good win tonight sixers boys


   3207. steagles Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:50 PM (#4051725)
Rick Kamla: Very impressive win for the sixers tonight. No matter no rip or deng, Philly is legit and they proved it with their best win of the year 2 minutes ago

Bill Ingram: Looks like the Sixers are serving notice tonight, blowing out the Bulls - don't know, you better ask somebody! Sixers are for real! about 17 minutes ago

Tas Melas: Looking forward to talking about how impressive the Sixers were tonight on #TBJ tomorrow. Deng, the Bulls miss Luol, but all Philly tonight. about 23 minutes ago

Nick Friedell: Only in Philly: Sixers' fans booing after their team wins because they didn't score enough to get a Big Mac. about 25 minutes ago

Tzvi Twersky: Thad Young (17), Lavoy Allen (15) and Lou Williams (14) have 46 points off the #sixers bench -- 2 more than all 5 #bulls starters combined. about 26 minutes ago

Martin Frank: #Sixers have 29 points off 17 Chicago turnovers. Outscoring Bulls 44-26 in the paint. about 31 minutes ago

Tom Moore: Here's a strange stat: Brand has scored below 10 points seven times this year and #Sixers have won every time. He has 7 tonight. about 29 minutes ago
   3208. rr Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4051729)
An exchange between Kobe Bryant and Timberwolves rook Ricky Rubio has been making the viral rounds. After the Laker victory in Minnesota on Saturday, Bryant spotted Rubio and Pau Gasol talking and congratulated the kid on a game well played. From there, the following chatter, as seen on Tuesday's "Around the Horn" commenced.

Kobe: "You talking about London (where the 2012 Olympics will be played)?"

Rubio: "You gonna be there?"

Kobe: "[Expletive] yeah, I'm gonna be there."

Rubio: You're gonna get that silver medal.

Kobe: "[Looooooong drawn out expletive.] I'm taking bets. I'm taking bets."

Rubio: "I bet you won't."

Kobe: "If I win, I get the key to Barcelona."

Rubio: "I bet what you want."

Kobe: "I'll take it."


Fom Andy Kamenetzky at Land O Lakers.
   3209. rr Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4051732)
Know the Bulls were short-handed, but score one for STEAGLES. I won't make any wiseass remarks about the 76ers for at least a week.
   3210. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4051736)
Out of curiosity - and a desire to avoid a project I ought to be working on, I looked at teams' winning percentages before and after 12/5/10 last season (around 20-21 games in - or about where we are now). Teams are listed in order of their finish last year, first column is ther wpct as of that date, subsequent is their wpct afterwards.

chi .556 .797 sas .850 .710
mia .619 .738 lal .700 .694
bos .800 .645 dal .800 .661
rol .750 .597 okc .667 .672
atl .619 .508 den .684 .587
nyk .571 .492 por .450 .629
phi .300 .565 noh .650 .532
ind .500 .438 mem .381 .623
mil .368 .444 hou .350 .581
cha .350 .429 pho .550 .468
det .333 .344 uta .714 .393
njn .286 .295 gsw .400 .452
was .316 .270 lac .190 .459
tor .400 .226 sac .222 .313
cle .350 .194 min .250 .194 
   3211. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4051744)
By my back of the envelope calculations, based on Der K's post and this year's numbers, we should anticipate the Sixers having a winning percentage of about 1.350 going forward.

Who here thinks STEAGLES would still bet the over?
   3212. Maxwn Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:28 PM (#4051748)
Clearly the EC finalists are going to be the Sixers and Milwaukee.
   3213. steagles Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:29 PM (#4051749)
By my back of the envelope calculations, based on Der K's post and this year's numbers, we should anticipate the Sixers having a winning percentage of about 1.350 going forward.

Who here thinks STEAGLES would still bet the over?
one game at a time. next one is friday against the heat.

looking forward to it.
Know the Bulls were short-handed, but score one for STEAGLES. I won't make any wiseass remarks about the 76ers for at least a week.
much appreciated. i'll hold you to it, though.
   3214. JJ1986 Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4051751)
Serge Ibaka with a double-double. Redbounds and Blocks.
   3215. rr Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4051753)
Milwaukee.

LEAGUE PASS BABY FEAR THE DEER
   3216. steagles Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4051757)
one last one:

there are 5 teams in the eastern conference that have 6 losses. the sixers have beaten 3 of them, and are playing the 4th on friday.
   3217. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:53 PM (#4051760)
Clippers first 5 FG have been dunks (3 oops).
   3218. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 02, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4051765)
Ahearn missed a free throw tonight. Entering the night, he was shooting 96.9% from the line this year and 95.8% on his d league career (just under a thousand attempts).
   3219. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: February 02, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4051766)
Kobe: "[Looooooong drawn out expletive.]

I'm going to read this as Clay Davis's favorite word.
   3220. kpelton Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:28 AM (#4051806)
Immediate Primer retweet:

@SportsGuy33: Who is everyone picking in the Clippers-76ers Finals? I have the Clips in 6.
   3221. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:36 AM (#4051808)
Steagles has the Sixers in 3.
   3222. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 02, 2012 at 08:25 AM (#4051826)
Seriously though, steagles can be annoying, but you have to give the guy credit. He's been mostly right about his team thus far. Imagine how lopsided last night's game would have been had Jodie Meeks gone off?

EDIT: Also, building off something I mentioned yesterday, Blake with 3 more blocks last night. Have there been any stories about him making more of an effort to block shots/play defense?
   3223. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 02, 2012 at 12:49 PM (#4051980)
A couple of my thoughts on last night, before I catch up on the thread:

1. Ronnie Brewer is not a SF. It was obvious in the Miami game and it was obvious again last night. Against good SFs, he just isn't big enough to slow them down at all. Lot easier said that done against someone like LeBron, but Iggy got by him at will and Brewer couldn't really slow him down. Brewer's been pretty good in Chicago at defending SGs, but is stretched at SF against starters. Don't be surprised if Melo busts out of his slump tonight. Unfortunately, anything that has "shooting" in the title also isn't ideal for Ronnie.
2. I ####### hate Carlos Boozer. He shows very little interest in playing in the low post and would much rather shoot 15ft rainbow jumpers. That can be useful in a PnR game, but he's just not that good at it. He shows zero interest in playing team defense. Virtually every layup or basket the Sixers had in the paint last night was because Boozer didn't rotate. It hurts doubly so in a game where the perimeter defenders (last night that was Brewer overmatched at SF and Korver overmatched at every position) can't keep anyone out of the lane. This is where a healthy Deng and Rip would help, but that doesn't make me hate Boozer any less. I'm ready for them to amnesty him; he's not the answer at PF and if they win it will be in spite of him.
3. I'm disappointed in the overall effort of the Bulls, but especially after halftime. Thibs was right to keep the starters out the last 15 minutes, because they weren't doing anything anyway.
4. The only positive to take out of a bad loss is hearing it shut up Neil Funk and Stacey King. They couldn't really say anything bad about Philly last night, and while they resort to cliches to describe why the Bulls are losing it's better than hearing them make up bullshit about how the Bulls are so close to coming back and getting anything they want even when they're losing.
   3224. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 02, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4051990)
His original flat-top fade will be a permanent stain on his career.

What!? I don't really have a strong opinion on him as a player, but that 'do was magnificent!


Agreed. I'm glad it's gone, so it's even easier to hate him now.

Nick Friedell: Only in Philly: Sixers' fans booing after their team wins because they didn't score enough to get a Big Mac. about 25 minutes ago

He actually should know better. It happens (happened) in Chicago too (for years, mostly when they sucked; although it might have come up once last year too).
   3225. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4052004)
Surya Fernandez: From yesterday: Through the first 34 games of the regular season, NBA TV is averaging 391,000 total viewers & 306,000 total households.... about 32 minutes ago

Surya Fernandez: ...up 74% and 78% respectively, compared to the same time last year. about 32 minutes ago

   3226. Into the Void Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4052175)
Adrian Wojnarowski @WojYahooNBA
Kenyon Martin is on visit to Atlanta today, intrigued w/ significant role he could play w/ Hawks, sources say. Clips, Heat high on list too.
   3227. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4052200)
EDIT: Also, building off something I mentioned yesterday, Blake with 3 more blocks last night. Have there been any stories about him making more of an effort to block shots/play defense?


He played zero defense in the 1st half, though did get a block on Hayward in transition. I thought he played more physical in the 2nd half and got one block on a Millsap post up. He also pulled off a great flop to get a charge on Millsap late in the game. It was Millsap's fault for lowering his shoulder, but Griffin was falling down before any contact. Kudos to him for pulling it off, but I would love to see the NBA come up with something to punishing flopping.

Last night was probably the most exciting Jazz game of the season. Close pretty much the whole way through, lots of fastbreaks, tons of Clipper dunks early, and in the 2nd half Paul just took off. Surprisingly Hayward probably did the best job guarding him, but he had to give him space and Paul kept draining jumpers. It would have been nice for the Jazz to take this, but I can't get too upset when they barely lose to a superior team because Chris Paul goes off.
   3228. Ebessan Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4052203)
Nick Friedell: Only in Philly: Sixers' fans booing after their team wins because they didn't score enough to get a Big Mac. about 25 minutes ago

He actually should know better. It happens (happened) in Chicago too (for years, mostly when they sucked; although it might have come up once last year too).

Yeah, and doesn't everyone know about the Lakers fans' obsession with 100, because it means free tacos? I mean, tacos are tacos, but that's just unnecessary piling. Leave it for when we do something really stupid, which will happen soon enough.
   3229. Maxwn Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4052204)
Word in the Memphis papers is that the MRI that Zach Randolph had this week looked good and he is on track for a possible return in early March. I can only hope that turns out to be true. The Grizzlies February schedule is fairly tough, although it is at least home heavy. There is a good chance that they will have some ground to make up in the last two months. However, even if he makes it back, it remains to be seen if he can get back to form.

The defense has continued to be strong, but the offense has been mediocre at best. I hope he gets healthy, because they make a hell of a lot more sense as a team with Z-Bo in the lineup. All due respect to Mo Speights, I like him a lot more as a Darrell Arthur replacement than as a starter.
   3230. rr Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4052208)
He actually should know better

Is Friedell a good writer/analyst? I have never read him, mostly because I get my Bulls' news here.
   3231. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4052209)
so, this was on grantland. if there's a single more unreadable article on the entire internet than this piece of ####, i have not yet come across it. it made my brain bleed.
   3232. JJ1986 Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4052212)
so, this was on grantland. if there's a single more unreadable article on the entire internet than this piece of ####, i have not yet come across it. it made my brain bleed.


I think it's sweet that they are letting the mentally challenged publish articles for them.
   3233. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4052214)
Seriously though, steagles can be annoying, but you have to give the guy credit. He's been mostly right about his team thus far.
hell, i've been saying it since they were in the middle of that 3-13 start last season. it's pretty nice for everyone else (in philly and elsewhere) to be jumping on board the bandwagon.
   3234. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 02, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4052233)
so, this was on grantland. if there's a single more unreadable article on the entire internet than this piece of ####, i have not yet come across it. it made my brain bleed.

The only difference between that article and your posts is capitalization.
   3235. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4052239)
The only difference between that article and your posts is capitalization.
i don't even know how to respond to that.


i'm just insulted. if you were in this room, i'd slap you in the face, and one of us would be dead at sunup.
   3236. andrewberg Posted: February 02, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4052245)
i'm just insulted. if you were in this room, i'd slap you in the face, and one of us would be dead at sunup.


You're misunderstanding. He's saying that they use capitalization.
   3237. Ebessan Posted: February 02, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4052248)
God, that was awful. How dare you try to ruin this team with your insufferable faux-irreverence, Grantland.
   3238. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4052285)
if i'm not mistaken, there's been at least 4 feature articles on the sixers from the point forward in the last ~24 hours.


   3239. Famous Original Joe C Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4052291)
You're misunderstanding. He's saying that they use capitalization.

!!
   3240. rr Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4052298)
Steagles,

Abbott also did a long post about the 76ers at True Hoop.
   3241. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 07:25 PM (#4052317)
Steagles,

Abbott also did a long post about the 76ers at True Hoop.
i saw that.


honestly, as much as this will probably shock the people who read this thread, i still feel about the same about this team as i did before the season started. 16-6 puts them on a pace to win 48, and that's pretty much exactly what i pegged them at.

now, my expectations were wildly optimistic (as a comparison, this was written by one of the best sixers beat-writers before the season), and it's absolutely thrilling to see the team progress in the way they have, but my outlook for the season is still the same as it was at the start.

i think they should be favored against atlanta or orlando or boston or indiana or milwaukee. i think they have a puncher's chance against miami in a 7 game series.

but there are two things that are a little different.

the sixers have now beaten chicago in 3 straight games. deng or no deng, that's looking like more of an even-money type of series than it was previously.

and they have a shot at the 1 seed. if they get it, and if chicago upsets miami in the eastern semis, they could be a finals team. they could be a finals team that is favored in every postseason series they play.


that's kind of getting ahead of a few things, though. they're .500 on the road (with losses against portland (home opener), utah (home opener) new york (third game of a b2b2b), and miami), and they still have a lot of (specifically, they still have 25) road games on the schedule. but of those 25, only 2 come against miami or chicago, and only 4 are against the western conference (@SAS, @MIN, @MEM, @HOU; none of their remaining western conference road games are on the west coast). so, there are a lot of road games, but also, there are a lot of winnable road games.


and also, there's still the little elephant in the room w/r/t being able to close out close games. that's a bit more of a worry than the schedule, but honestly, if the team keeps winning by 25, i'm not gonna get blown of shape by it.

   3242. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 02, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4052342)
and if chicago upsets miami in the eastern semis, they could be a finals team. they could be a finals team that is favored in every postseason series they play.

Just like last season with the Bulls and Heat, even if the Sixers sweep the Bulls this regular season (they won't) and are the one seed (they won't be), the Bulls will be favored. Last year, the Bulls swept the Heat and had HCA; Miami was rightfully favored.
   3243. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4052389)
Just like last season with the Bulls and Heat, even if the Sixers sweep the Bulls this regular season (they won't) and are the one seed (they won't be), the Bulls will be favored. Last year, the Bulls swept the Heat and had HCA; Miami was rightfully favored.
i don't think you're right. miami had 3 guys who could go off for 35 on any given night, but chicago is (not quite, but just about) a one man offense. miami had 3 of the 4 best players on the court versus chicago, but if the matchup is chicago v. philadelphia, the gap in talent is just not nearly as pronounced.

if we go by PER (which, admittedly, is a bit lazy), philly has 6** guys in the rotation who are over 18 and 9*** who are over 15. chicago has 4 and 7, but both numbers include jimmy butler and cj watson, and they rank 12th and 10th in minutes for chicago, respectively.


if philly finishes 1st in the eastern conference, and if they go through the first two rounds showing anywhere near the continuity that they've shown to this point in the season, i don't think it's at all far-fetched to think they could be favored against chicago.****

**those 6 include both lavoy allen and nik vucevic, but the odds are that only 1 of them is going to get significant run when everyone is healthy.

***this includes evan turner, who's at 14.9.

****i don't think that's actually the main takeaway from this. i think the main takeaway is that there's a very good case to be made that the sixers are just a better team than chicago is. or at least that they've been the better team so far this season (in fact, philly is 3-1 against the 4 other eastern conference teams (miami, chicago, indiana, atlanta) that are tied at 6 in the loss column, while the bulls are just 1-4).
   3244. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4052400)
your 2012 NBA all star game starters:

rose, wade, james, anthony, howard
paul, bryant, durant, griffin, bynum
   3245. Maxwn Posted: February 02, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4052417)
Lionel Hollins is really trying my patience playing Marc Gasol in the 4th quarter of a 25 pt blowout of Atlanta. They've got OKC in OKC tomorrow. Rest the starters, Lionel.
   3246. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 10:46 PM (#4052423)
from henry abbot's new article:

ABC has had just three games, so it's hard to say anything conclusive, but the audience is up five percent compared to a year ago.
ESPN viewership is up 23 percent.
TNT viewership is up 50 percent.
NBA TV viewership is up an insane 66 percent.
NBA on regional cable sports networks are up 12 percent.
Local over-the-airwaves broadcasts are up 36 percent.
   3247. Zipperholes Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4052432)
Pistons/Blazers Finals game 2 on NBA TV. This style of play is so much fun to watch.
   3248. steagles Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4052454)
i really do not like that play from the knicks at the end of this game. even if amar''''e made the 3 and tied the game, there'd still be 9 seconds left on the clock for CHI to come back and get the game winner.

it's just a losing play by a losing team.
   3249. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4052456)
I was going to post something to the same effect. It was a "what the heck, let's put it up, maybe we'll get lucky, we're not supposed to win this anyways" type of play.
   3250. Zipperholes Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4052459)
Frontcourt of Jerome Kersey, Kevin Duckworth, Buck Williams, Cliff Robinson, Mark Bryant. That is some rebounding.
   3251. Zipperholes Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:54 PM (#4052471)
Laimbeer is hitting everything. This has to be one of the greatest 4Q/OT performances in Finals history.
   3252. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4052472)
I'm fighting the urge to post spoilers.
   3253. steagles Posted: February 03, 2012 at 12:41 AM (#4052491)
David Locke: scary thought - Millsap and Jefferson look worn out and we haven't hit our tough part of the season yet #UTAatGSW 1 minute ago

Nick Friedell: Interesting visitor in Bulls' postgame locker room in both Miami and NYC: Worldwide Wes. 1 minute ago

KC Johnson: DRose: "I finally hit a damn free throw. That’s what I’m happy about. I hit one. So hopefully next time I’ll hit both." #Bulls 4 minutes ago

Joseph Goodman: Barkley thinks Bosh should be a starter for East All-Stars. In other words, 3/5 of the East's All-Stars would be 0-2 against the Bucks. about 13 minutes ago

John Schuhmann: Thibodeau said it was NOT the intended strategy to foul up 4 & not foul up 3, but took blame for a "miscommunication" between him & Brewer. about 23 minutes ago

\
   3254. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 03, 2012 at 05:41 AM (#4052594)
   3255. tshipman Posted: February 03, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4052764)
if we go by PER (which, admittedly, is a bit lazy), philly has 6** guys in the rotation who are over 18 and 9*** who are over 15. chicago has 4 and 7, but both numbers include jimmy butler and cj watson, and they rank 12th and 10th in minutes for chicago, respectively.


Both of your numbers include Spencer Hawes, about whom there is much skepticism, and Lou Williams, who plays 25 minutes per game. Those are the Sixers' best players by PER.

What happens when Spencer Hawes wakes up and Joakim Noah remembers he's pretty good?
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