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Thursday, July 26, 2018

Neil Walker Is Worried About This Winter | FanGraphs Baseball

Interesting article with interesting comments.

DBA455
So I quickly threw some numbers together which will be a mess if I paste in here, so I will I try to summarize.

For the top ~50 FA signed last winter, if you assume their 2018 comp is just their average comp for the course of the deal (which I think is generous, since the early years of FA contracts are typically considered the ‘bargain’ portion that the players allow for to reflect an understood over-payment in the later years AND ignores the player-friendly value of options) then I see teams getting ~45 wins this year for about $433M. Slightly over $9.5M/fWin.

I don’t think I see anything terrible out of whack there.

Moustakas is a genuine outlier (although wouldn’t be if he had accepted the QO); the market turned against him in a way he/Boras didn’t anticipate. Chacin and Moreland are bargain guys generating real club value this year. Lorenzo Cain perhaps the only bargain superstar: got paid like a 2-win guy when he was expected to be a 3-win guy and is playing like a 5-win guy. Good for him (and good for the Brewers FO for hitting on two of these).

But guys like Reed and Vargas and Shaw and Swarzak and Duensing are all guys from the mid tier who aren’t looking worth the $3M-$8M they are being paid. Logan Morrison too! His 1x$6.5 deal seemed like a steal for teh Twins in March. Less so now, with a projected 0.2 wins in the offing. As noted above, those are roles fungibly filled by clubs with”AAAA” guys at 90% less. Nobody gets terribly burned by paying Jaimie Garcia $10M for a year of ~0.3 win baseball. But is there a real asymmetry in a deal like that that disadvantages the players? I don’t see it.

And of course the real potential club-killers are things like the Hosmer deal (that deal felt bad when he was supposed to be a 2-win guy. As a replacement level guy … has to make for interesting water cooler conversation for Dave Cameron). Or perhaps Darvish. Unless you think arm-injured pitchers age well.

I certainly get why the players would like to make more money. And it’s hard to argue that minor league players have anything close to a compelling economic existence. But as noted in other comments, this labor union (like others) has chosen to prioritize tenure over merit, and clubs are responding accordingly.

The narratives of “tanking” and “collusion” and “unfairness” just don’t carry water.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:04 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cba, free agency

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   1. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5716191)
expand rosters in april instead of september
create a year-round revocable waiver wire for rule 5 eligible players.
   2. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:33 AM (#5716198)
Teams are wising up. Most of these guys are marginal players who don't deserve a large amount of money.
   3. BDC Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5716200)
Neil Walker oughta be worried about where his next hit is coming from, not what he's going to do next winter. He was dumped by the New York Mets. He was dumped by the ####### ####### Milwaukee Brewers. He's coming in bases loaded striking out and like to ruin my health smoking cigarettes, and now the Yankees got Gleyber Torres back coming out there sticking the ball up their ####### ### and that's what it takes.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5716216)
it's astounding that Walker is still on the Yankees roster, with an OPS+ of 60 in 203 PA for a guy who turns 33 in September.

I think a better way to look at it is that this middle tier got rich for decades even though they didn't figure to live up to their contracts - and they're bummed because teams have now wised up.

but there may be data out there that shows otherwise.
   5. weiss-man Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:37 AM (#5716239)
Walker needs to worry about his immediate future. If the Yankees released him I doubt any other team would pick him up. Whatever happened to Hanley Ramirez?
   6. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5716246)
it's astounding that Walker is still on the Yankees roster, with an OPS+ of 60 in 203 PA for a guy who turns 33 in September.


Now that GLEYBER! is back, Walker's days may be numbered, though his last 50 PAs have resulted in a 130 OPS+, probably as a result of having more consistent playing time ...
   7. Zonk is Just the Right Amount of Wrought Posted: July 26, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5716269)
Teams are wising up. Most of these guys are marginal players who don't deserve a large amount of money.


Are they?

The contracts seem to have cratered for the star-but-not-a-superstar guy... but an awful lot of cromulence getting 3-4-5-etc million (particularly relievers who are sometimes just a season removed from waiver fodder).

Of course, teams can certainly afford to hand out those kind of contracts like candy - and just eat them if things go sour - but that feels like the place where the market is upside down at the moment.

Or hell, maybe not... 3-4-5-6 mil for a 1 WAR player is a bargain, and should that player revert or fall to replacement level, it's not a big pill to swallow. So maybe it's a smart gamble... who knows.
   8. rconn23 Posted: July 26, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5716293)
I thought Walker was a great pickup given that he's been a good hitter for his position, and it was only $4 million. But he's been unbelievably bad.
   9. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 26, 2018 at 12:32 PM (#5716322)
Now that GLEYBER! is back, Walker's days may be numbered, though his last 50 PAs have resulted in a 130 OPS+, probably as a result of having more consistent playing time ...

The forgotten Yankee seems to be Ronald Torreyes, who's been back at home attending to a sick wife rather than playing baseball. If he were in a position to return, it'd be crazy for the Yanks not to replace Walker with him. Torreyes doesn't have much power, but when he left the team he was hitting .323 with a 105 OPS+ and a 56/162 strikeout rate, a utility infielder par excellence who was also a darling of the Yankees' fan base.
   10. Rennie's Tenet Posted: July 26, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5716400)
I doubt any other team would pick him up


You figure Walker can always go to Pittsburgh for a last hurrah. Sean Rodriguez has his average up to .170, though, so they're covered.
   11. dejarouehg Posted: July 26, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5716487)
The sense of entitlement that some players have is extraordinary. Walker's earned $50 Million!!!!

If you could give me Tyler Clippard for free I wouldn't take him.

After all the moaning and whining, Alex Cobb is a disaster; Lance Lynn = ordinary; Logan Morrison - dreadful.

I feel for Moustakas. He got shafted. Would love to see him get a big contract.

I'm an anti-union person in general and don't really consider the MLBPA a union. That said, as one former player told me last week, the owners are more interested in gobbling up cheap talent from the DR, Venezuela, etc., then spending on the Neil Walkers of the world. It all comes down to dreadful leadership by Tony Clark and the players are reluctant to make to big a deal over his ineffectiveness. When I asked if it was for, what I considered, the obvious reason? He said, "Yeah, because he's black and no one wants to get painted as a racist. But he's not qualified!!"

   12. cardsfanboy Posted: July 26, 2018 at 04:45 PM (#5716516)
I feel for Moustakas. He got shafted. Would love to see him get a big contract.


Why would anyone ever give him a big contract? He's the definition of a league average player and has been over the course of his career. I just do not get the fascination with Moustakas, Cardinal fans wanted him also, and I saw zero reason to sign him. And nothing has really changed that opinion.


He's the third base equivalent of Jon Jay.
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: July 26, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5716524)
I'm an anti-union person in general and don't really consider the MLBPA a union. That said, as one former player told me last week, the owners are more interested in gobbling up cheap talent from the DR, Venezuela, etc., then spending on the Neil Walkers of the world.


MLBPA has done a horrible job for three decades of increasing the pay for DR and others, in a predictable short sighted situation that has finally started to bite them in the ass. This isn't about poor current leadership, it's about short sightedness of the past regimes, which insisted on focusing on the pay for established players and sacrificing the pay of young players. Eventually it was going to catch up to them, as many of the young players are able to produce just as good as the older players and cost 1/5th of the amount of money.

If the past leaders of the mlbpa would have thought about the future, they would have insisted on a more even paying system that makes salary more equivalent to actual value, and not wholly dependent on time of service. Blaming this on Tony Clark makes zero sense. You would almost have to fully re-write the pay system from the ground up to get back to a system where teams are willing to shell out 5-8 mil a year for multiple years for a league average player, when they can get that performance/value for 1 mil or so and just jettison the guys after 4 or so season.
   14. Chicago Joe Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:37 AM (#5717834)
When I asked if it was for, what I considered, the obvious reason? He said, "Yeah, because he's black and no one wants to get painted as a racist. But he's not qualified!!"
source?

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