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Thursday, May 18, 2017

New York Mets’ injury issues go far beyond the disabled list

“It’s the same old, same old mistakes,’’ one industry source said. “The Mets are a successful, profitable organization. But no organization, over a protracted period of time, has more significant players on the disabled list. There’s a failing across the board. And what changes have been instituted, if any?’‘

Jim Furtado Posted: May 18, 2017 at 10:42 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: injuries, mets

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   1. Adam Starblind Posted: May 18, 2017 at 11:57 AM (#5458405)
This is why you can't build a sustainable contender around pitching. Has anyone but the Braves ever sustained that over any significant period?
   2. Cargo Cultist Posted: May 18, 2017 at 01:07 PM (#5458532)
The Dodgers did it. But it requires injury-resistant pitchers, an excellent support staff, and wise management. The #LOLMets have none of these things.
   3. Cargo Cultist Posted: May 18, 2017 at 01:12 PM (#5458542)
Something everyone associated with baseball needs to remember about pitchers:

"There's a trap door under every pitcher in the world, and there's a gibbon in the control room, mashing buttons because he has nothing better to do." - Grant Brisbee
   4. Captain Supporter Posted: May 18, 2017 at 02:11 PM (#5458631)
So we have an article that shows that there are a number of teams that have worse injury problems than the Mes have had. So why is the article about the Mets? Is it because some of their better players happen to have gotten hurt rather than their worse players? And is that somehow the fault of the medical staff? The payroll lost to DL stat is misleading at best because the principal problem there is that they have kept David Wright (and his spinal stenosis which has nothing to do with the medical staff) around for sentimental reasons rather than cutting him, and because the guy who pulled a hamstring happens to have the highest salary on the team.

Everyone knows that building a team around a young, hard throwing pitching staff has risks associated with it. But those risks have nothing to do with the alleged (and totally unconvincing if you base it on what is written in the article) micromanaging of the medical staff by Jeff Wilpon.

The alleged solution (to the extent that there is one in this poorly written article) is to hire some sort of Director of Performance Sciences. However, no evidence of any type is offered to suggest that such a position would actually help solve the problem (or that it would do anything to keep Jeff Wilpon from meddling).

I think more nonsense is written about the Mets than about any other team.

   5. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 18, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5458666)
more nonsense is written about the Mets than about any other team.


You're just jealous because this is the one area where the Mets consistently beat the Yankees!
   6. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: May 18, 2017 at 03:13 PM (#5458732)
...no evidence of any type is offered to suggest that such a position would actually help solve the problem (or that it would do anything to keep Jeff Wilpon from meddling).


See, we all thought the hiring of Sandy Alderson was going to keep Jeff Wilpon from meddling. That didn't work out, either...
   7. Captain Supporter Posted: May 18, 2017 at 04:38 PM (#5458852)
I'm convinced that a large part of the problem is that in today's baseball starting pitchers throw as hard as they can all the time. It is perhaps the main reason they can't throw as many pitches asthey did say 50 years ago. I believe (but can't prove) that pitchers who pace themselves and only dial it up when they really need it can throw more pitches and yet not hurt their arms as much. I do think that if you go back and look at games played many years ago, you will see visual evidence that pitchers did precisely that.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: May 18, 2017 at 06:57 PM (#5458967)
#7 ... maybe. But there have only been two generations of pitchers who could withstand substantially heavier usage. The pre-1900s guys didn't last long in number of seasons but of course compiled insane in-season totals. The studs of the 60s-70s are the only other generation where you "regularly" see 3000+ innings, 250+ wins, etc.

From 1947-1959, only 13 pitchers debuted who made it to 3000 IP, less than one per team. One of these was Gibson who was several years away from being a stud.

From 1960-1972, 24 pitchers debuted, so a bit more than one per team.

From 1973-1985, it was just 8 with Roger Clemens the last in that group. From 1986-1998, it was 15 (Colon). Post-98 it has been just 3 so far with Hudson and Buehrle already retired. Lackey has a chance at 3000, and Felix, Verlander and Greinke are about 550-700 away.

Obviously today's bunch are babied in IP/season terms and that probably makes it harder to reach 3000 for a career. But it's never been very common.

On teams that successfully built around pitching -- their overall success has been quite limited due to being poor at other aspects of the game (and low-ish payroll) but the White Sox have had a very good track record of keeping starters healthy over the last 15 seasons and have developed some good pitchers (and finally a great one in Sale). And it's not like there is a long list of recent teams that have sustained success through the development of position players either -- the Red Sox and ???
   9. JohnQ Posted: May 19, 2017 at 11:56 AM (#5459296)
From Adam Starblind#1:

This is why you can't build a sustainable contender around pitching. Has anyone but the Braves ever sustained that over any significant period?


It's very rare. It's rare to even have a pitcher be the biggest contributor for a baseball Dynasty and the Braves had 2 (Maddux & Glavine) with Smoltz slightly behind C. Jones & A. Jones.

According to WAR, Bill James Baseball Dynasties since WW2, pitcher as biggest contributor:

1964-1983 Orioles, Jim Palmer 70.7 WAR

1963-1968 Cardinals, Bob Gibson 38.2 WAR

1984-1990 Mets, Dwight Gooden 36.0 WAR

1991-2005 Braves, Greg Maddux 67.3 WAR

According to WAR, Bill James Dynasties since WW2, pitcher as 2nd biggest contributor:

1973-1991 Dodgers, Orel Hershiser 38.0 WAR

1976-1986 Yankees, Ron Guidry 44.9 WAR

1976-1983 Phillies, Steve Carlton 45.6 WAR

1991-2005 Braves, Tom Glavine 60.1 WAR

1994-2012 Yankees, Mariano Rivera 54.6 WAR

2010-2016 Giants, Madison Bumgarner 28.9 WAR

The only other dynasty other than the Braves that was built around pitching were the 1973-1991 Dodgers. They had Hershiser, Valenzuela, B. Welch, Burt Hooten, Don Sutton, Jerry Reuss, & Andy Messersmith.

The 1946-1966 Dodger dynasty is unusual because they basically did a 180 about halfway through the dynasty. the 1946-1957 portion is dominated by position players and Ebbets Field Brooklyn: Robinson, Snider, Reese, Hodges, Furillo & Campanella but the 1958-1966 portion was dominated by two pitchers and Dodger Stadium in L.A.: Koufax & Drysdale.

The 1966-83 Orioles teams have a perception that they were pitcher dominated team but that's not really true. They were dominated by great defense: B. Robinson, Belanger, P. Blair & B. Grich and some big offensive player players like F. Robinson, B. Powell, E. Murray & K. Singleton. The pitchers benefitted from great defense, a pitcher's park and good run support.

It would seem the baseball dynasties are built on 3 or 4 position players and a pitcher:

1947-64 Yanks: Mantle, Berra, McDougald & Ford

1956-61 Braves: Aaron, Mathews, Adcock & Spahn

1963-1968 Cardinals: Brock, Flood, McCarver, Cepeda & Gibson

1988-1992 A's: R. Henderson, Canseco, McGwire, D. Henderson & D. Stewart

1991-1993 Blue Jays: White, Alomar, Olerud & Guzman

Or the dynasties with the 4 position players & 2 pitchers:

1946-1966 Dodgers: Snider, J. Robinson, Reese, Hodges & Koufax, Drysdale

1975-1985 Royals: Brett, Wilson, White, McRae & Leonard, Quisenberry

1976-1986 Yankees: Randolph, Nettles, Winfield, Mattingly & Guidry, Righetti

1971-1975 A's: Reggie, Bando, Campy, Rudi & Hunter & Blue

1984-1990 Mets: Strawberry, Hernandez, HoJo, Dykstra & Gooden, El Sid.

Then you have the Dynasties with 4-5 big position players:

1970-79 Pirates: Stargell, Parker, Oliver & Sanguillen

1970-1981 Reds: Bench, Morgan, Rose, Foster & Concepcion

1995-2001 Indians: Thome, Ramirez, Lofton, Alomar & Vizquel.

The 1976-1983 Phillies were basically just 2 big players: Schmidt & Carlton.






   10. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: May 19, 2017 at 12:13 PM (#5459318)
duplicate. nevermind. (slinks away shamefacedly...)
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: May 19, 2017 at 12:24 PM (#5459333)
This is why you can't build a sustainable contender around pitching.
I've seen this sentiment about the Mets in a few places, and something feels off about it. It almost implies that the Mets developing good young pitchers was a bad thing and is causing the team's 2017 woes. And furthermore, they have used lots of resources on position players over the last few years. The proportion of their payroll that is going toward SPs (and pitching in general) is much smaller than that of their division leader Nationals, and I would guess it's less than average.
   12. zack Posted: May 19, 2017 at 01:02 PM (#5459360)
Ignoring the medical staff which we don't have the information to evaluate, I think the only argument you can make for the Mets structural failures coming into this season is that they:

a) failed to develop hitters (Nimmo, maybe Cecchini and Plawecki stand out from their draft position and age). But see below, that's not because they were going all-in on acquiring pitchers.
b) that 7 young starting pitchers wasn't enough, given the injury history of that cohort. But given the starting pitching market this past winter, what exactly was the alternative? And a major problem has been Gsellman and Harvey being complete trash, which I don't think anyone expected both of them to be despite their histories.

deGrom, Lugo and Gsellman are (or were, in the case of Gsellman) winning lottery tickets.
Only Harvey and Matz are high draft picks.
Does anyone want to argue that there were better values as returns in the Beltran and Dickey trades than Wheeler and Syndergaard?

60% of the payroll goes to over-30 free-agent hitters (Cespedes (hurt), Walker, Granderson, Bruce, Cabrera (hurt)). The highest paid pitchers on the team are Reed, Familia and Blevins.

The real failures for Alderson were the Bruce trade and failing to find adequate fielders in CF and SS.

   13. JohnQ Posted: May 19, 2017 at 01:08 PM (#5459371)
From Nasty Nate

I've seen this sentiment about the Mets in a few places, and something feels off about it. It almost implies that the Mets developing good young pitchers was a bad thing and is causing the team's 2017 woes. And furthermore, they have used lots of resources on position players over the last few years. The proportion of their payroll that is going toward SPs (and pitching in general) is much smaller than that of their division leader Nationals, and I would guess it's less than average.


No it's not a bad thing to develop young pitching but I think the point is that there are very few sustainable contenders or dynasties based around pitching. The 1991-2005 Braves and the 1973-1991 Dodgers seem like Outliers since WW2.

More likely, dynasties seem to be built on 3-4 position players & 1 or 2 pitchers.

   14. Adam Starblind Posted: May 19, 2017 at 01:18 PM (#5459385)
Yeah, I think I'm not talking so much about intentionally concentrating the projected production on pitching. I'm thinking about looking at a team and judging it to be a contender, which so many of your projected wins are coming from pitchers. The variability has to be enormous when the roster is constructed that way. And other than Cespedes and possibly now Conforto, the offense has no stars.

Interesting point about 3-4 position players plus 1-2 pitchers. The Phils of the early aughts haven't been mentioned. They had Utley, Howard, Rollins, what's his name pitcher who carried around that effeminate dog. Didn't hurt that they were also able to field a rotating cast of Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Hayward, Burrell, Thome, etc.
   15. JohnQ Posted: May 19, 2017 at 01:43 PM (#5459414)
From Adam Starblind#14:

Interesting point about 3-4 position players plus 1-2 pitchers. The Phils of the early aughts haven't been mentioned. They had Utley, Howard, Rollins, what's his name pitcher who carried around that effeminate dog. Didn't hurt that they were also able to field a rotating cast of Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Hayward, Burrell, Thome, etc.


Yeah, I forgot to add the 2007-11 Phillies for some reason.

Those teams were really about Utley, he was the most important player. So you had Utley, Victorino, Rollins, Werth with Hamels & Halladay. Ryan Howard was massively overrated. Lee was only there for 2011 and part of 2009. The big mistake they made was trading Lee after the "09 season. Ruiz & Howard after that. Ryan Madson was the unsung hero of those teams.
   16. Adam Starblind Posted: May 19, 2017 at 02:03 PM (#5459425)
I meant Werth not Hayward!!! Ugh.
   17. bigglou115 Posted: May 19, 2017 at 02:16 PM (#5459440)
This is what worries me about the braves, who are actively concentrating on building and pitching while ignoring position player prospects.

I'm gonna ask if some of the stuff you hear is true that I feel falls into the institutional readiness.

1) This refuses an MRI, team let's him pitch on a torn lat.

2) Cespedes hurts his hamstring, team refuses to DL him, to the point that at times they have a1 man bench, eventual DL him after to much time has passed.

3) accuse Matz through the media of faking an injury.

I don't follow the Mets, so I'll readily about any of those could be conjecture or just plain BS, but if true those would worry me if I were a fan.

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