Pedro will pitch next season. I'd put money on Ned Colletti signing him.

Saturday night, he said he didn't intend to retire, vowing to pitch in 2009 "if I'm healthy."

Nevertheless, he also displayed humility -- or was it even resignation? Or, on the flip side, false modesty? -- when he spoke of not necessarily starting for the Mets in this postseason, turning into a reliever if so asked.


Time waits for no man.

Pedro's first inning problems are a huge concern. He has allowed 21 runs in 19 starts in the first inning. There has to be something to overcome that even if it means throwing a simulated inning right before the game. I'd rather he threw 5 innings and allowed 2 ER than 6 IP with 4 or 5 ER, even with this bullpen.

For $52MM, the Mets got 475 innings of 110 ERA+.

This season from Pedro has been nothing like I expected; I figured he'd either be hurt and unavailable, or dominant (in somewhat limited innings). I really thought there was little chance he'd have a season like he's having this year, with eighteen starts and a hundred innings of pretty poor pitching.

Why couldn't he get 300 if he was able to pitch well again? That's a big if, but he's 86 away, and he's 36. If he could pitch with a 100 ERA+ till he was 44 or 45, he could do it, and pitchers have certainly done that.

But I agree with Harold. I really never thought a Pedro getting his fastball above 85 mph consistently would pitch badly. Not great, sure, but not bad.

I was never sure why you guys (and you weren't alone) didn't think he could be an average pitcher. It happens to most great pitchers. If he comes back for 300, he needs to be very selective about where he signs. It needs to be a good team in a pitcher's park.

As he finishes off the memorable, four-year, $52-million contract that Omar Minaya used to establish credibility,

This seems to get passed around as gospel, but I don't see it. What did this credibility do for them?

Why couldn't he get 300 if he was able to pitch well again? That's a big if, but he's 86 away, and he's 36. If he could pitch with a 100 ERA+ till he was 44 or 45, he could do it, and pitchers have certainly done that.

Who? How many guys? Even if Pedro comes back to being a decent pitcher over the next year or two, the chance of him sticking around that long are exceedingly low.

What did this credibility do for them?

Got them Carlos Beltran.

The Mets will probably have increased their attendance from 2.2 to around 4 million since the end of the 2004 season and now. They have a successful TV network and are relevant in New York after being a distant third in importance in that city after the Yankees and Red Sox. Obviously, Pedro isn't the only reason for that but he was the first small step and that matters.

All in all, it'd be wrong to say it was a good move or to say it was a mistake.

This seems to get passed around as gospel, but I don't see it. What did this credibility do for them?

The Mets haven't been contracted yet.

If he comes back for 300, he needs to be very selective about where he signs. It needs to be a good team in a pitcher's park.

As opposed to the Mets at Shea?

This is as good a place as any -- it's pretty much a Mets' thread, right? -- to note that BA's Top 20 prospects in the NY-P League includes four (count 'em, four) Mets, more than any other team in the league. They are:

7) Brad Holt
9) Jenrry Mejia
11) Reese Havens
17) Ike Davis

Probably the most interesting capsules were about Davis, whose report wasn't pretty, and Mejia. Here's part of Davis's:

Before getting relatively hot over the final 14 games of the season, Davis was hitting .227, and he finished the summer homerless in 215 at-bats.

"He was just a flop," an American League scout said. "I don't know if anyone will have anything good to say about him. He was moping around, just not giving it to you. He wasn't very aggressive at the plate, and when he strikes out he's always shocked when he's called out."

Multiple scouts questioned Davis' toughness and attitude, but all still acknowledged the tools are there. He shows easy lefthanded power in batting practice, particularly to right field, and he can lace doubles to the opposite field. He did a better job staying back on the ball late in the season.

IOW, he needs a big-time wake up call, but they aren't ready to give up on him.

Mejia sounds totally intriguing:

[H]e throws much harder than most 6-footers, running his fastball up to 97-98 mph and sitting at 95-96 even when throwing out of the stretch in the middle innings.

"He's a power-armed guy. He's a freak," a National League scout said. "I'm not even saying he's any good right now, I'm just saying he's a freak. He could probably throw 100 mph. His delivery's fair, but it's hard to repeat. I see a hell of a lot of effort with Mejia. He's like the kid at the carnival trying to win the thing, just letting it all go. . . .

Mejia works around the plate but doesn't have a lot of command in the strike zone or feel for pitching. He does have a chance for three legitimate above-average pitches, however. . . . If Mejia can harness his stuff, his ceiling is high, but long-term durability is a major concern with his small physique and max-effort delivery.

Boy, that sounds like a potential closer in the making to me.

Got them Carlos Beltran.

I don't see it.

I never thought I'd see Pedro be mediocre. It's weird to think that there are young fans who know Pedro only as this version.

People thought Pedro had some magical ability because he was so great. But without a fastball in the 90s, he was just another guy trying to get by on junk. Throwing in the low-90s, he could still be darn good. Topping out at 85 wasn't going to cut it.

Topping out at 85 wasn't going to cut it.

But he is such a smart pitcher, like Mike Mussina, that if there were one pitcher who could do it...In any case, you're right. He did seem magical.

Why couldn't he get 300 if he was able to pitch well again? That's a big if, but he's 86 away, and he's 36. If he could pitch with a 100 ERA+ till he was 44 or 45, he could do it, and pitchers have certainly done that.

Has any pitcher lasted into his early 40's with a durability record like Pedro up to age 36?

Topping out at 85 wasn't going to cut it.

Darren, I hate to break it to you, but he's not topping out at 85. He's regularly in the high 80s, and sometimes hits 90-91. That should be good enough, with his breaking stuff, to at least be average. But he's not. And the reason he's not is not a lack of velocity. It's poor location within the strike zone.

Now, as someone pointed out in the chat last night, those two are not unrelated, in that Pedro is probably having to really rear back and go harder to get up into the high '80s, and it's hurting his command. So he's sacrificing some precision for the velocity he thinks he needs to challenge hitters, which goes back to the confidence issue his own quote talks about. A portrait of a pitcher in decline, and not knowing how to deal with it effectively. And maybe not being able to.

To me, his best chance to be average is to be the Pedro with great command, hit his spots with a dizzying array of pitches. If he tops out at 85, so be it. That won't be great, and he'll get eaten alive some nights, but it'll work OK others. What he can't live with is just so-so stuff and so-so command. But what the hell do I know? He's Pedro Martinez, and if he can't figure out a way to win with the stuff he's got at this point, then there probably isn't a way to do it.

Funny how much a 95 MPH fastball can make you look smart. I think the saga of Roger Clemens should put that belief to permanent rest.

You don't think Pedro was a smart pitcher? Also, as stupid as Roger might be off the field, he did know a thing or two about pitching, no? His last few years, for instance, Roger didn't have overwhelming velocity on his pitches.

Honestly, the reason why this season is so disappointing is how sharp he was last season coming off the surgery. He was able to be successful last season even though he was throwing a slower fastball than he is throwing right now. He is throwing about 2-3 MPH harder now but he doesn't have the command he did last season.

Last season was the aberration that we thought (or I did at least) was going to be the reality. Pedro's 2007 September was a pretty amazing feat when you consider all the factors and I just don't know how he did it considering all his struggles this year.

Pedro will pitch next season. I'd put money on Ned Colletti signing him.

There isn't one single team in baseball that's going to bust their ass to sign him to a contract, particularly if he still believes he's a starting pitcher.

If he's willing to take a one year, small money deal as a reliever, then maybe. But he's now routinely giving up six earned runs per nine and two baserunners per inning virtually every start, and he has to labor hard just to get to the sixth inning. His days as an effective starting pitcher are over.

And if the Mets are foolish enough to give him starts in the playoffs, he's going to get shelled and kill any chance they have to do anything.

If he's willing to take a one year, small money deal as a reliever, then maybe.

A great idea for someone who has trouble in his first inning of work.

And if the Mets are foolish enough to give him starts in the playoffs, he's going to get shelled and kill any chance they have to do anything.

If the Mets make the playoffs, they will need a fourth starter once in any five or seven-game series. Is your claim that not only is it impossible for Pedro to rise to the occasion, but his starts will be so disastrous that they will keep Santana, Pelfrey and Perez from pitching effectively?

FanGraphs has his fastball at around 88, consistent with his previous three seasons. He's junked his slider the last two seasons. Looking kind of done.

My mistake on the 85 number. It sounds like Sam's explanation sounds right. I'm not sure how good he can be if he drops his velocity for precision, but he does have really good breaking pitches.

Someone will sign Pedro as a starter if that's what he wants to do. Working as a reliever might work for him. Maybe he could muscle up for 1-2 IP if he didn't have to worry about pacing himself.

If I'm not mistaken, Pedro hates the Dodgers to the degree that he might refuse to sign with them. Perhaps he's forgiven them. If he did, I missed it.

I recall that too PJ. It had something to do with how Ramon was released I think, but then I'm also think it was something to do with Lasorda not giving him a chance to start.

Its possible he's lost command because he's putting everything into velocity. But, really, it's a different arm and body now, after the surgery and rehab. It's possible, though I think unlikely, that he comes back next year and can be average. My guess is he just can't do it anymore. It's sad, but, again, I have no idea why it's surprising.

Hey Russlan, tomorrow I'll be giving you names of Dbacks hall of flamers whose pages on b-ref I'd like you sponsor.

Hey Russlan, tomorrow I'll be giving you names of Dbacks hall of flamers whose pages on b-ref I'd like you sponsor.

Go Danny Klassen! Only five bucks.

Someone will sign Pedro as a starter if that's what he wants to do.

I have absolutely no idea what makes you believe this. He's a sub-replacement level pitcher with a recent history of injuries who is so obviously on the downside of his career.

I'll make you a friendly gentleman's wager that he never starts again after the Mets are done and the season is over.

I think that because someone gave Gagne $10 mil to close this year. Bartolo Colon got a rotation shot this year. Freddy Garcia did too, eventually. If Pedro wants to start, he'll get a shot somewhere.

Add Sidney Ponson, Brett Tomko, and Matt Morris to that list.

Pedro's last stand can't be any more pathetic than the lingering deaths of Scott Erickson's and Hideo Nomo's careers.

Hey Russlan, tomorrow I'll be giving you names of Dbacks hall of flamers whose pages on b-ref I'd like you sponsor.

That's cool.

I'm looking for names of scrubs who somehow had success against the Mets. It's a daunting task.

Has any pitcher lasted into his early 40's with a durability record like Pedro up to age 36?

Pedro was remarkably durable for most of his early career. With the exception of 2001 and one short stretch in 2003, he missed no significant time from the minute he became a full-time starter in 1994 until 2006.

-- MWE

"No significant time" except for X and Y is a little vague. True, Pedro pitched enough in most years to make him very valuable. But he had several stints on the DL in the 94-06 period that you're talking about. Add back in the two exceptions that you mention and he is certainly not "remarkably durable" during that time. A much fairer description would be "reasonably durable."

So to look back at the whole picture, he was reasonably durable and then had to have rotator-cuff surgery and has not been the same since (which should be of no surprise to anyone because pitchers rarely are the same after that). I think that's probably the best way to nutshell his current status. Because of that, I'd say it's extremely unlikely that he pitches into his mid-40s or even early 40s.

Yeah I have a hard time calling a starting pitcher "remarkably durable" when he's finished in the top 5 in his league in IP a grand total of one time in his career (4th place) and despite being not only a #1 but the #1, he's never been in the top 5 in GS.

In full disclosure, he has actually led his league in CG once, and finished in 6-10th place in IP 5 times and in GS 3 times. Which in all means I agree with Darren on the "reasonably durable" label, and I, too, don't see him pitching past 40. He might not pitch past 37.

I'd reserve the words "remarkably durable" for a record that looks like Maddux's.

Maddux would be more like uniquely durable. Buehrle might be more of a remarkably durable guy.

Well, if you look at how durable he was expected to be by the Dodgers, then his durability really was pretty remarkable.