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Sunday, April 06, 2014

Newsday: Ike Davis could be answer for Yankees

Commenter: “they should have drafted a lot more mat harvey’s”

The Yankees and Mets haven’t made a trade since 2004 (Mike Stanton to the Yankees, Felix Heredia to the Mets).

But this is one that would make sense for both teams: Ike Davis to the Yankees. Dellin Betances to the Mets.

That’s just an idea for starters. It doesn’t have to be Betances. But he’s the hard-throwing young bullpen arm the Mets desperately need. The Yankees need a first baseman after the increasingly brittle Mark Teixeira hit the disabled list again Saturday with a hamstring injury…

This whole Davis/[Lucas] Duda thing has not been the Mets’ finest hour. It’s been clear for some time that the front office favors Duda, but the team has never committed to him… If the organization truly believes Duda is the better option, it needs to maximize Davis’ value by trading him for something more necessary than a lefty bat off the bench…

Make the call, Sandy [Alderson]. If not to the Yankees, then to another team that will give you something you truly need. That’s more important than giving Davis a chance for occasional glory.

The District Attorney Posted: April 06, 2014 at 11:48 AM | 75 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dellin betances, ike davis, mets, yankees

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   1. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 06, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4680288)
Was this written before or after Ike's pinch-hit walk-off grand slam last night?

I agree the Mets should #### or get off the pot here. Commit to one, trade the other. Ike Davis is 27. Lucas Duda is 28. As a fan of both players, I'd like to see them both have careers and right now, it just seems like the Mets are wasting a lot of people's time (including their own).
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 06, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4680305)
Not a terrible idea, but it seems like Betances is way too much for Davis. Davis isn't going to be cheap anymore, if he's any good, and Betances still has 6 years of team control.

Shawn Kelley for Davis makes more sense.
   3. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: April 06, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4680309)
I'd throw Adam LaRoche into the mix of marginal 1B the Yankees may acquire. The Nats can't play him and Zimmerman at 1B, and Zimmerman can't play 3B any more.
   4. JJ1986 Posted: April 06, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4680314)
The Mets are horrible at carrying through on anything Ike Davis-related. They announced Friday that Duda was going to be the starter and now Davis is starting today after the grand slam.
   5. JE (Jason) Posted: April 06, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4680316)
Commit to one, trade the other.

If only they had committed to neither and made a serious bid for Jose Abreu. (Sigh.)
I'd throw Adam LaRoche into the mix of marginal 1B the Yankees may acquire. The Nats can't play him and Zimmerman at 1B, and Zimmerman can't play 3B any more.

You saw that throw, huh?
   6. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: April 06, 2014 at 01:28 PM (#4680330)
You saw that throw, huh?


I hesitate to call that a "throw."
   7. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: April 06, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4680342)
I doubt the nats will trade larches before the year is done, but jeez zimmermans days at third are limited at best
   8. The District Attorney Posted: April 06, 2014 at 02:06 PM (#4680360)
Yeah, I can't see the Yankees having any interest at all in Ike for Betances. Even putting aside the (probably insurmountable) factor that neither NY team wants to risk the PR hit of getting ripped off in a big trade by the other one... who wants to trade a young flamethrowing pitcher (and quite possibly a starter) whom you don't have to pay for a 1B whom you do? I think you could only consider it if Ike were tearing up the league. Of course, to do that, he'd have to get playing time.

I thought the comment that "the front office favors Duda" was interesting. If that is true at all, I'd think it was a pretty recent development. I think that (even though Alderson didn't draft Ike) Ike has generally gotten "golden boy" treatment. Alderson described him as part of the team's "core" not all that long ago. And Duda was demoted last year for little apparent reason (unlike Ike, who was demoted for almost historically horrendous play.)

And, I mean, it makes sense; you should, all other things being equal, view a 1st round pick as having more potential upside than a slightly older 7th round pick who takes a little longer to make the majors. Whether we've seen enough now to reverse that is an open question. I don't really care which one they trade... and I know they shouldn't make a bad trade... but jeez, I do hope they find a worthwhile deal for one of them. And now I'm afraid what'll happen is that they won't want to trade the one they think is actually better, while the one they think is actually worse sees his trade value disappear because he's not playing.
   9. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 06, 2014 at 02:21 PM (#4680369)
Betances is almost exactly 1 year younger than Ike Davis. He has been with the Yankees since 2006. He's more past hype, than any sort of real prospect right now.
   10. Bug Selig Posted: April 06, 2014 at 03:25 PM (#4680437)
But you don't understand. He has thrown 9 ML innings. 9. And has given up 8 earned runs in those 9 innings. But he did it for the Yankees, so it is only a matter of time before we see a "How in the world did we allow a bum like Mariano to keep this stud in the minors?" story.

Ike Davis is worth 3 Dellin Betances.
   11. guajolote2 Posted: April 06, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4680441)
Ike Davis would look good in green and gold, as one half of the A's 1B platoon.
   12. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 06, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4680459)
Ike Davis to the Yankees. Dellin Betances to the Mets.

No thanks.
   13. Benji Posted: April 06, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4680471)
I said it in the Met room on facebook: the Yankees will bring back Joe Pepitone before they allow themselves to get stuck with Alibi Ike.
   14. billyshears Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:17 AM (#4680706)
Wait, so are people of the view that Dellin Betances has value? I mean, Ike Davis kind of sucks, but the likelihood is that he has already had more of an MLB career than Betances ever will. I'd much rather roll the dice with Davis and the remote chance that he could find a way to not completely forget how to hit a baseball for half the season every year than a 26 yr old relief pitching prospect with a middling minor league track record. Cheap doesn't matter so much when it comes along with crappy.
   15. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 07, 2014 at 07:30 AM (#4680746)
There no history of tall, power armed pitching prospects taking longer to find their control. None.
   16. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 07:34 AM (#4680748)
Dellin Betances has no value. He's a 27-year-old minor league reliever with shitty control. I wouldn't trade Ike Davis for three of him.
   17. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 07:57 AM (#4680757)
billyshears: No, it's just yet another in an endless string of "let's trade Nonprospect X for another team's useful player!" pipe dreams from Yankees fans and media, who sincerely believe that being in the Yankees system automatically qualifies anyone as a desirable prospect.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 08:25 AM (#4680762)
Dellin Betances has no value. He's a 27-year-old minor league reliever with shitty control. I wouldn't trade Ike Davis for three of him.


In which case, you're probably going to end the year with Ike Davis on your roster. The market has spoken, and it has said that Davis is worth Zach Britton. If you don't want to take an offer like that, you don't have to take it, but unless/until Davis does something to substantially increase his value, those are the kinds of offers you're going to get.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 08:27 AM (#4680765)
billyshears: No, it's just yet another in an endless string of "let's trade Nonprospect X for another team's useful player!" pipe dreams from Yankees fans and media, who sincerely believe that being in the Yankees system automatically qualifies anyone as a desirable prospect.


Well, when the Pirates traded for Justin Morneau at the deadline last year, all they gave up was an unproven hard-thrower in his mid/late 20s with command issues (Duke Welker) and an OF who's already gone onto waivers (Alex Presley).
   20. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 08:47 AM (#4680769)
Which is all Morneau was worth, right? He wasn't hitting that much and the Pirates only got two months of him. A possible future middle reliever is all I'd expect a team to get for two months of an old first baseman whose hitting is barely adequate for a first baseman.

Edit: I didn't realize Davis is already down to his last arbitration year, so yeah, he's not worth much. I think he's probably worth more than Dellin Betances, though.
   21. Lassus Posted: April 07, 2014 at 08:59 AM (#4680774)
The market has spoken, and it has said that Davis is worth Zach Britton.

Davis at the moment certainly isn't any great shakes, game-winning PH grand slam notwithstanding, but it's a little early to say that THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN, I think. I don't think the Mets should have any problem holding him for a better-than-average offer and seeing if he appreciates as they wait. It's not like depreciation is going to affect anything right now.
   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:10 AM (#4680779)
Which is all Morneau was worth, right? He wasn't hitting that much and the Pirates only got two months of him. A possible future middle reliever is all I'd expect a team to get for two months of an old first baseman whose hitting is barely adequate for a first baseman.


By that same token, the Pirates picked him up at the deadline, where everything costs more than it would at other times of the year. And while I agree that Morneau's hitting is barely adequate for first base, from 2012-2014 he's got a slightly higher OPS+ than Davis does (107 to 105 as of today).

It's also kind of silly to write off Betances as a total nonentity, as some people in this thread (not you) are doing. He's got some holes in his profile, but two years ago he was #63 in BA's top 100 prospects. There's a reason for that.
   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:15 AM (#4680780)
Davis at the moment certainly isn't any great shakes, game-winning PH grand slam notwithstanding, but it's a little early to say that THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN, I think. I don't think the Mets should have any problem holding him for a better-than-average offer and seeing if he appreciates as they wait. It's not like depreciation is going to affect anything right now.


If they want to hold him, that's fine. It's their right. But they've been ostentatiously making him available for at least six months, and he's still a Met, even though there are teams with fairly substantial holes at first base. To me, that suggests that their price is too high.

It's probably not accurate to say that depreciation is a total non-factor. If nothing else, at least all of the current offers for Davis involve the Mets offloading all of his salary and getting something back in return. If he stinks up the joint for another couple of months, they may not be able to get anything for him at all. And while an opportune injury could create another interested party, Davis's trade value is going to take a big hit in the second week of June, once Morales isn't tied to draft pick compensation anymore. So there are pluses and minuses in both directions there.
   24. Lassus Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:17 AM (#4680781)
All fair enough. I admit I hadn't followed a lot of the trade stuff off-season, so I didn't account for that.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:17 AM (#4680816)
Dellin Betances has no value. He's a 27-year-old minor league reliever with shitty control. I wouldn't trade Ike Davis for three of him.

Dellin Betances has zero MLB service time and is throwing 95-98 MPH right now. That has value. Even a mid-range short reliever at the league minimum is valuable. Given what his prospect rating was, and where the velocity is, there's certainly still a lot of upside.

Davis is already making $3.5M and has been shitty for over 2 years now, and lost his job to Lucas Duda. He might have negative value right now. Even if he turns the corner with a new team, he's going to get expensive fast, if he produces.
   26. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:25 AM (#4680824)
Okay, fine. He's of the "random live arm" sort of value. You do not get a starting 1B for random live arms.

Davis wasn't much good last year. He was fine before that. $3.5 million is nothing in today's game. He's worth more then Dellin Betances.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:25 AM (#4680825)
Even if he turns the corner with a new team, he's going to get expensive fast, if he produces.


Only expensive compared to Betances etc, not expensive compared to other 1Bmen or other Yankee players. Davis' $3.5 million salary wouldn't be much of a factor for the Yankees if they were considering trading for him.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:35 AM (#4680838)
Davis wasn't much good last year. He was fine before that. $3.5 million is nothing in today's game. He's worth more then Dellin Betances.

In 2012 he put up a 111 OPS+ and 1.0 WAR. That's not fine.

Only expensive compared to Betances etc, not expensive compared to other 1Bmen or other Yankee players. Davis' $3.5 million salary wouldn't be much of a factor for the Yankees if they were considering trading for him.

If he was any good, sure. But the evidence is he's not any good.

My point is, if he has a good 2014, you're not going to have a bargain on your hands in 2015, especially the way arb overvalues HR/RBI.
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:39 AM (#4680843)
My point is, if he has a good 2014, you're not going to have a bargain on your hands in 2015, especially the way arb overvalues HR/RBI.


Sure, but the Yankees don't prioritize getting bargains when it come to player acquisition.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4680856)
Sure, but the Yankees don't prioritize getting bargains when it come to player acquisition.

Right, but it's part of the equation.

If Betances turns into a lights out set-up man (which is not uncommon for a failed starter who can throw 98), he's a huge bargain for 3 more years.

And, it's not like the Yankees are swimming in power bullpen arms anymore than they have a surplus of IF.
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:50 AM (#4680857)
In 2012 he put up a 111 OPS+ and 1.0 WAR. That's not fine.


Well, it's fine if you're talking about a cheap player promoted from within, or a placeholder acquired externally at extremely low cost, but the Mets seem to be placing a higher value on Davis than that. Hence the disconnect, and the lack of a trade.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:51 AM (#4680860)
Well, it's fine if you're talking about a cheap player promoted from within, or a placeholder acquired externally at extremely low cost, but the Mets seem to be placing a higher value on Davis than that. Hence the disconnect.

Right. He's a guy you'll take to fill a hole. He's not a guy you'll give up anything real to get.

I mean the similar hitters over the last 3 years are guys like Duda, Jason Kubel, Andy Dirks, David Murphy, Mark Reynolds, Yonder Alonso, Seth Smith, etc.
   33. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:52 AM (#4680862)
my understanding is that the mets told doug Melvin they wanted tyler Thornburg and another minor leaguer for davis

Melvin thought a minor leaguer would be fine but not both Thornburg and a kid.

   34. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:57 AM (#4680866)
rats
   35. billyshears Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:33 AM (#4680900)
Dellin Betances has zero MLB service time and is throwing 95-98 MPH right now. That has value. Even a mid-range short reliever at the league minimum is valuable. Given what his prospect rating was, and where the velocity is, there's certainly still a lot of upside.


The Mets already have Jeurys Familia and Vic Black. Every organization has at least 1 hard throwing converted starter relief pitching prospect who could be really good if they could just harness their stuff. Sometimes it works out, but mostly it doesn't. Even when it works out a little bit (see Bobby Parnell), the pain of getting there is usually greater than the benefit.
   36. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:51 AM (#4680917)
It's also kind of silly to write off Betances as a total nonentity, as some people in this thread (not you) are doing. He's got some holes in his profile, but two years ago he was #63 in BA's top 100 prospects. There's a reason for that.

And they ranked Lars Anderson #17 in 2008. The way he is being talked about in this thread, reminds me of how Sox fans talked about LA around 2010/11, when his name was thrown into every Red Sox trade rumor. What they thought of him 2 years ago is irrelevant to what you have now.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:33 PM (#4680979)
And they ranked Lars Anderson #17 in 2008.


There's a big difference between 2008 and 2012.

What they thought of him 2 years ago is irrelevant to what you have now.


And in Betances, what you have right now is a guy with an upper 90s fastball who put up a 2.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 in AAA last year, as well as a 0.73 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 11/4 K/BB in 12 1/3 spring innings.

Unlike Anderson, that has value.
   38. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:38 PM (#4680987)
The Mets already have Jeurys Familia and Vic Black. Every organization has at least 1 hard throwing converted starter relief pitching prospect who could be really good if they could just harness their stuff. Sometimes it works out, but mostly it doesn't. Even when it works out a little bit (see Bobby Parnell), the pain of getting there is usually greater than the benefit.

But, as Vlad points out, Betances seems to have already harnessed his stuff. He was pretty close to dominant in AAA last year, and it has continued into this Spring.
   39. Nasty Nate Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4680990)
what you have right now is a guy with an upper 90s fastball who put up a 2.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 in AAA last year


I admit ignorance about Betances and his abilities, but aren't the minors littered with relievers that have stats like that?
   40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:45 PM (#4680997)
I admit ignorance about Betances and his abilities, but aren't the minors littered with relievers that have stats like that?

There are very few guys who can throw 98 MPH, even in MLB.

The minors are also littered with AAAA 1B/LF/DH's who could put up a 105-110 OPS+ if given a chance. Ike Davis just lost his job to one of them.
   41. billyshears Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4681003)
I admit ignorance about Betances and his abilities, but aren't the minors littered with relievers that have stats like that?


Funny you should ask. Vic Black has an upper 90s fastball and put up a 2.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a 12.15 K/9 in AAA last year. He was the lesser prospect received in a trade for 1/3 seasons of Marlon Byrd and John Buck.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4681009)
Funny you should ask. Vic Black has an upper 90s fastball and put up a 2.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a 12.15 K/9 in AAA last year. He was the lesser prospect received in a trade for 1/3 seasons of Marlon Byrd and John Buck.

So, all that means is Vic Black is worth more than Ike Davis too.

A guy with a 140 OPS+ and a cromulent starting catcher, are worth a lot more at the trade deadline than a recently benched Ike Davis is worth today.
   43. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 07, 2014 at 01:57 PM (#4681112)
There's a big difference between 2008 and 2012.

The difference between 2008 and 2010 is the same, as the difference between 2012 and 2014. See how that works.

And in Betances, what you have right now is a guy with an upper 90s fastball who put up a 2.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 in AAA last year

With a walk rate of 4.5 per 9 (which I guess for him is progress at least), with unsustainably low hit and HR rates. That's still not going to play in the bigs. If you can't hit the back side of a barn more often than not, you are going to get killed.


as well as a 0.73 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 11/4 K/BB in 12 1/3 spring innings.

Really? 12.1 innings of spring training?
   44. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:04 PM (#4681129)
I admit ignorance about Betances and his abilities, but aren't the minors littered with relievers that have stats like that?


Betances was in the International League last year. Among qualified pitchers in that league (by B-R's standards), there were a total of six other guys with 10 or more K/9 (to Betances's 11.6), a WHIP of 1.20 or less (to Betances's 1.12), and an ERA below 3.00 (to Betances's 2.68). In addition to Betances, you've got Victor Black, Fernando Nieve, Steve Geltz, Joel Carreno, Jose De La Torre, and Preston Guilmet. All are decent enough relief candidates, but with the exception of Black, none has anything close to Betances's size or stuff.

(Nobody in the PCL met those marks. If you bump the standard up to a 3.50 ERA, you add one pitcher - Brewers reliever Will Smith, a lefty swingman who likewise lacks Betances's raw heat. If you drop it down to 9.0+ K/9, you also add Padres SP prospect Burch Smith.)

He was the lesser prospect received in a trade for 1/3 seasons of Marlon Byrd and John Buck.


I will freely stipulate that if Ike Davis were still as good a hitter as Marlon Byrd was last year (and were able to play a position more valuable than first base, and were moved at the time of maximum leverage for selling teams), the Mets could probably get more for him in trade than they are likely to do under the current circumstances.

By fWAR, Byrd was worth more than a full win more in 2013 than Davis has been from 2011-2014 combined.
   45. Nasty Nate Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:08 PM (#4681134)
Betances was in the International League last year. Among qualified pitchers in that league (by B-R's standards), there were a total of six other guys with 10 or more K/9 (to Betances's 11.6), a WHIP of 1.20 or less (to Betances's 1.12), and an ERA below 3.00 (to Betances's 2.68). In addition to Betances, you've got Victor Black, Fernando Nieve, Steve Geltz, Joel Carreno, Jose De La Torre, and Preston Guilmet. All are decent enough relief candidates, but with the exception of Black, none has anything close to Betances's size or stuff.

(Nobody in the PCL met those marks. If you bump the standard up to a 3.50 ERA, you add one pitcher - Brewers reliever Will Smith, a lefty swingman who likewise lacks Betances's raw heat. If you drop it down to 9.0+ K/9, you also add Padres SP prospect Burch Smith.)


Thanks. There are fewer of those guys than I thought.
   46. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4681144)
A guy with a 140 OPS+ and a cromulent starting catcher, are worth a lot more at the trade deadline than a recently benched Ike Davis is worth today.

Byrd may have had a 140 OPS+ at the deadline last year but he isn't a 140 OPS+ hitter. He was really cheap though.

Ike Davis isn't going to be a free agent until 2017. I don't think he's anything more than a a guy who might be a decent stopgap at the position so I know he's not super valuable but I am certainly weary of guys who walk that many guys in AAA. The guys have multiple guys like Betances already in their system. It's not so much that I think Davis is worth way more than Betances, it's just I don't particularly find the skillset that Betances brings to the table all that appealing for the Mets.
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:26 PM (#4681154)
The difference between 2008 and 2010 is the same, as the difference between 2012 and 2014. See how that works.


So because one top-100 prospect (a first baseman, no less) ended up as a bust after looking good six years ago, Betances is a bad bet today? I don't really follow your logic.

With a walk rate of 4.5 per 9 (which I guess for him is progress at least), with unsustainably low hit and HR rates.


I can think of a few reasons why hitters might struggle to drive the ball against a 6'8" pitcher throwing in the high 90s.

Betances's BABIP at AAA last year was .269. 50 hits allowed on 186 balls in play. If you assume a .290 BABIP instead, he allows four extra hits, and his WHIP goes all the way from 1.12 to 1.14. Wheee!

(And of course, the numbers I gave for Betances were his full-year stats. If you only look at his splits after he was converted to relief, we're talking about a 2.08 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, a 12.9 K/9, and a 3.9 BB/9. Which is even more encouraging.)

Really? 12.1 innings of spring training?


It's a small sample, but it's encouraging that he was able to carry his 2013 progress forward into the season, rather than taking a step backward (like, say, Victor Black).
   48. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:30 PM (#4681159)
I have to admit that I had no idea Betances was already 26. That is almost funny. Maybe he's been associated with Banuelos so much that I figured they had to be the same age. That information also presumably makes it less likely that there's still hope for him as a starter.

And, I'm definitely not one of these mooks who thinks that if you have to pay somebody market value, he becomes worthless, so trade him for some random minor leaguer whom you can "control." I do assume, though, that the Mets continue to work on a limited budget, and spending several million dollars per year on someone for whom they have a seemingly equivalent replacement on the roster is not a great option for them. Given that... given that I no longer think Ike has star potential... and given that I do think Betances is coming along well as a reliever, I would still make that deal as the Mets. (I would, however, keep shopping for something better. Trading for a reliever is hardly ever ideal.)

It's all very hypothetical, though. Even if both teams liked what they were getting, I think the Mets still wouldn't risk a 1% chance of humiliation when Ike becomes the next great power hitter across town while Betances flops, while the Yankees wouldn't risk a 1% chance of humiliation when Betances becomes the next great closer across town while Ike flops.
   49. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4681171)
That information also presumably makes it less likely that there's still hope for him as a starter.


Oh, yeah, I wouldn't count on him starting at all at this point. He's purely a RH bullpen arm.
   50. Ravecc Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4681172)
In addition to Betances, you've got Victor Black, Fernando Nieve, Steve Geltz, Joel Carreno, Jose De La Torre, and Preston Guilmet.


The Mets have 2 of those guys: Black and Carreno.

As much as I want the three-headed 1B battle resolved, I'd rather keep Ike. I would have traded him in the offseason for Matt Joycce, if that was really on the table as Sherman reported, but not for another reliever.

   51. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:15 PM (#4681208)
So because one top-100 prospect (a first baseman, no less) ended up as a bust after looking good six years ago, Betances is a bad bet today? I don't really follow your logic.

The point is, relying on scouting reports from three years ago, is something Ruben Amraro Jr would do.
   52. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4681215)
but two years ago he was #63 in BA's top 100 prospects. There's a reason for that.


He was finally healthy enough to stay in a rotation all year (and still only threw 120 ip in 25 starts), the the next year he walked 99 guys in 130 IP and BA came to their senses and dropped him from their prospect lists.

Betances has been ineffective in AA, ineffective in AAA, and ineffective in the MLB-

Randy Johnson, who I believe someone up above alluded to, was:
A. effective in AA despite walking too many people;
B. effective in AAA despite walking too many people; and
c. effective in the MLB at age 26 despite walking too many people (though at a 108 ERA+ was nowhere hear the beast he would become)

Ike is frustrating as all hell, but he's a decent fielder with a 113 OPS+ in 1720 MLB PAs, Ike as a back-up likely has more MLB value ahead of him than Betances will- Betances may have a better chance of being REALLY GOOD in the future than Ike does- he's probably got a 5% chance and Ike's is 1%- but Ike has probably an 80% chance of being at least useful, and Betances odds are probably no more than 33.3%
   53. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:29 PM (#4681224)
really strikes me that davis would benefit from a change of scenery. (likely stating the obvious)

he hit in the minors. on a personal level I like his swing. think he's just messed up 3 feet above his backside

not saying he would turn into mike easler but he could be a decent first baseman for a few years
   54. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:29 PM (#4681225)
The point is, relying on scouting reports from three years ago, is something Ruben Amraro Jr would do.


But we aren't relying on scouting reports from three years ago. We're relying on scouting reports from right now, which say that Betances has been a killer since he was moved to the pen and could be a setup guy or closer in the not-too-distant future. The scouting report from two years ago just emphasizes that he's been well-regarded by scouts for an extended period of time.
   55. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 07, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4681311)
not saying he would turn into mike easler


he can easily be Easler for a month, trouble is he could also hit like... Betances would for a month....

   56. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 07, 2014 at 04:45 PM (#4681327)
Randy Johnson, who I believe someone up above alluded to, was:
A. effective in AA despite walking too many people;
B. effective in AAA despite walking too many people; and
c. effective in the MLB at age 26 despite walking too many people (though at a 108 ERA+ was nowhere hear the beast he would become)


And then he turned into one of the 5 greatest pitchers of the last 50 years. Betances was not effective, but the question is whether he might turn into an effective setup guy. The RJ anology is only for the proposition that ultra-tall hard throwers are often the last guys to figure it out.
   57. geonose Posted: April 07, 2014 at 04:49 PM (#4681331)
Was this written before or after Ike's pinch-hit walk-off grand slam last night?

Why don't you click the link and find out?
   58. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:22 PM (#4681379)
Ike is frustrating as all hell, but he's a decent fielder with a 113 OPS+ in 1720 MLB PAs

That guy is worth 1 WAR. That's what Davis did in 2012. No one is happy with that at 1B.

The Mets aren't, they benched him for Lucas Duda.
   59. Dale Berra of Seville (was Rennie's Tenet) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:24 PM (#4681387)
Why don't you click the link and find out?


Links? Those are links?
   60. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:39 PM (#4681407)
No one is happy with that at 1B.

the brewers would be delighted
   61. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:52 PM (#4681418)
The RJ anology is only for the proposition that ultra-tall hard throwers are often the last guys to figure it out.


the last guys to figure things out are generally the knuckle ball guys :-)

As to RJ, he's an extreme outlier who is of little or no use in projecting anyone else or any class of pitcher.


Sure there is a chance that Betances could really figure everything out and become a stud pitcher- the same is true for every single MLB or minor league pitcher who has MLB claliber stuff

   62. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:54 PM (#4681424)
That guy is worth 1 WAR. That's what Davis did in 2012. No one is happy with that at 1B.

The Mets aren't, they benched him for Lucas Duda.


No THAT guy (2012 Ike Davis) wasn't benched for Duda, the guy who put up zero WAR due to an unseemly 90 OPS+ was benched for Duda.
   63. thetailor Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:57 PM (#4681428)
Betances may have a better chance of being REALLY GOOD in the future than Ike does- he's probably got a 5% chance and Ike's is 1%- but Ike has probably an 80% chance of being at least useful, and Betances odds are probably no more than 33.3%

Johnny, I agree with your logic but I think I end up disagreeing with your conclusion. Even if Betances works out to be an extraordinarily successful reliever, his ceiling is lower than that of Davis.

Let's say EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL is a 5 WAR season. If you told me Betances or Davis did that some year in the future, my bet would be on Davis.
   64. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 07, 2014 at 06:02 PM (#4681433)
Even if Betances works out to be an extraordinarily successful reliever, his ceiling is lower than that of Davis.


I think that while Davis has a better shot of somehow posting a 5 WAR season than Betances does, Betances has a better shot of being a legitimate closer for a couple of years than Davis does of posting a 5 WAR season.

   65. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 06:06 PM (#4681435)
David Robertson to the 15-day DL with a groin strain, Betances isn't going anywhere. Just as well if he can't fetch anything more valuable than Ike Davis. He hit 99MPH last week, if you're going to count on a rookie in the bullpen you want it to be one who can hit 99MPH.
   66. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 06:15 PM (#4681440)
No THAT guy (2012 Ike Davis) wasn't benched for Duda, the guy who put up zero WAR due to an unseemly 90 OPS+ was benched for Duda.

If the Mets view Davis as worse than a 1 WAR player, it just makes my point even stronger.
   67. billyshears Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:45 PM (#4681609)
Just as well if he can't fetch anything more valuable than Ike Davis. He hit 99MPH last week, if you're going to count on a rookie in the bullpen you want it to be one who can hit 99MPH.


See also, Vic Black.
   68. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: April 08, 2014 at 09:19 AM (#4681687)
if you're going to count on a rookie in the bullpen you want it to be one who can hit 99MPH.


And / or the broad side of a barn.
   69. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 08, 2014 at 10:08 AM (#4681737)
And / or the broad side of a barn.


Good thing that Betances has made substantial improvements in his command since moving to the bullpen, then.
   70. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 08, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4681904)
I'm looking forward to seeing what Betances can do in the Yankee bullpen. It's a huge opportunity for him this season, with no real established players ahead of him except David Robertson and Robertson himself a potential free agent at the end of the season.
   71. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 08, 2014 at 12:58 PM (#4681959)
Good thing that Betances has made substantial improvements in his command since moving to the bullpen, then.

4 walks in 9 innings at the AAA level still is still pretty bad.

It does look like the Yankees might need him more than the Mets, who have their fair share of unproven relievers with good stuff.
   72. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: April 08, 2014 at 01:44 PM (#4682012)
4 walks in 9 innings at the AAA level still is still pretty bad.


Less than 4 if you look solely at his performance as a reliever, as I noted above.
   73. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:59 PM (#4682082)
Is 3.9 walks per 9 innings all that different than 4 walks per 9 innings?
   74. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: April 08, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4682100)
Is 3.9 walks per 9 innings all that different than 4 walks per 9 innings?

in AAA?

2009-2014, 100+IP, best ERA+s BB/9 between 3.75 n 4.25:

Rk Player ERA+
1 David Robertson 173
2 Brian Wilson 156
3 Jesse Crain 151
4 Jose Valverde 139
5 Tony Cingrani 135
6 Sergio Santos 134
7 Vinnie Pestano 133
8 Santiago Casilla 132
9 Aaron Crow 132
10 Jeremy Affeldt 131
75 pitchers are on the list, surprisingly the median ERA+ is 101. I say surprising because the main qualification is walking too many people- a negative.
73 pitchers have 100+ IP and BB/9 over 4.25 in that time period, the top guy is Venters at 175, the median is at 96...

   75. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 08, 2014 at 04:32 PM (#4682156)
FWIW Dellin is killing it today in the laugher against Baltimore. 1.2 IP, 3Ks, 17 out of 26 pitches for strikes and he hit 98.

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