No, what I’m going to point out is so shocking, you might question everything you thought you knew about baseball:
DEREK JETER IS NOT SUCH A BAD DEFENDER ANYMORE.
That’s right, he’s not. In fact, at the age of 34 (35 in 9 days, don’t forget to send a card), Jeter is putting together his finest defensive season since they’ve been keeping advanced defensive metrics.
Looking at two fielding stats, range runs and UZR, Jeter has improved immensely since 2005, when he contributed to one of the worst defensive teams to ever make the playoffs.
-snip—
The improvement clearly started last season, when Jeter rededicated himself to defense, employing “exercises designed to improve his lateral quickness and first-step explosiveness.”
So how has Jeter gone from being among the worst defensive shortstops in baseball to a slightly above-average one?
Is it something simple like these exercises he’s doing? His diet? The fact that no one wants to hit the ball on the ground at the new Yankee Stadium?
Normal statistical fluctuation? Dumb luck?
Seriously, nobody would be more thrilled than I were Jeter to finish this season with decent defensive stats. I love to be surprised. But it’s just too early to get worked up over this stuff. I really don’t think it’s the ballpark, or Jeter’s diet. I might be inclined to think he’s benefited from those new exercises, but considering that he’ll turn 35 next week, and he’s been so awful with the glove for so long, I think a healthy dose of skepticism is in order.
happysky
Posted: June 20, 2009 at 03:18 PM |
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1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 20, 2009 at 04:25 PM (#3225970)I'm going to guess that with all of his conquests, there isn't a positioning that he hasn't mastered.
Mark Teixeira?
Yeah, it is, but the guy is new to BTF so he might not know any better.
So if you're reading this happysky, I think a good rule of thumb is 3 full paragraphs max (not including any quote that the author is responding to), maybe 4-5 paragraphs if it's a really long article. But quoting over 75% or whatever of the article constitutes abuse of fair-use and may expose this site to legal problems if the owners of the content want to make an issue of it.
Wouldn't that hurt his advanced defensive stats?
He's a big part of it. Jeter has a .988 fielding percentage and his low error rate is a big reason why his UZR looks so good. The only reason it's even close to that is because Teixeira has made some fantastic plays to save him a few throwing errors.
Jeter is having a big time season right now. It's pretty cool to see a 35 year old play this well at SS.
Playing well at an age when most are in decline is a mark of an all-time great. Early this season Neyer rated Jeter as within the top 5 shortstops in MLB history (as have others), and I'm beginning to think he has a good chance to move up higher. Honus Wagner probably has a lock on #1, but after that it may become a matter of opinion (and definition).
:)
I'm joshing, of course. Jeter is and has been awesome and, I agree, it is cool to see him having a good year.
So how do you get keys?
Everybody, including you, can submit items.
Weirdly, Miguel Tejada (126, 7th) is also having a great year. Good time to be a 35 year-old SS apparently.
These are OPS+ in seasons of 100 or more games, primary SS:
162, 145, 144, 128, 124, 123, 115, 114, 107, 105, 105, 102. 097, 092, 091 - Ripken
190, 149, 148, 146, 140, 140, 134, 132, 126, 119, 113 - Vaughan
153, 132, 128, 127, 125, 125, 123, 121, 114, 111, 103, 102, 101 - Jeter
Even without accounting for defense, he's running behind.
It's quite a bit closer between Jeter and Ripken if you use EQA:
Ripken: .334, .321, .317, .296, .295, .283, .283, .274, .278, .274, .271, .270, .260, .256, .255
Jeter: .333, .315, .309, .304, .304, .302, .301, .293, .293, .289, .279, .276, .275 and he's got a .291 so far this year.
Ripken still edges Jeter on the best 3 years but after that it is all Jeter all the time. Which is not to say Jeter was better than Ripken. I don't think Jeter can catch Vaughan and I don't think he can catch Ripken either. But the fourth best SS (fifth if you think A-rod played enough there) of all time is an amazing accomplishment. Considering how often I read here that Jeter was done during the 02-04 seasons, I will be completely satisfied with his standing among the greats when all is said and done.
Not if I can help it!
Well right now, he's probably just passing Alan Trammel. But it looks like the end is a long way off for Jeter. He'll be clear of Trammel this year and probably pass Larkin next year. It's very likely he'll be in a position to catch Yount too (all based on WAR, which has Jeter at 62.4 before this year, Trammel at 66.8, Larkin at 70.1, and Yount at 75.9). I'm not all that familiar with many of the older great shortstops, but it doesn't see like any of the modern guys ahead of him now are going to stay out in front. Who else do you think he needs to pass?
Well, I think they are better than that considering that Todd isn't a catcher and Foxx is dead
Dan also has Jeter rated much worse defensively than he should due to outdated UZR numbers, at least he did the last time he posted on the subject. He had Jeter sitting around -15 or so defensively a year, which is off and probably cost Jeter somewhere between 7 and 15 wins for his career.
He also ranks Negro Leaguers, which I don't consider because I don't think it can be done accurately for this kind of a conversation.
Looking over the guys AROM rates and a quick and dirty look at shortstops, here are the guys I get who Jeter is comparable with or clearly behind:
Appling, Cronin, Davis, Ripken, Smith, Vaughan, Wagner and Yount. Add Yount and Larkin to the list. That's 10, Jeter makes 11. I think a fair argument could be made that Jeter isn't the worst of these guys and if he is, he's certainly in a position to pass a few of them before he retires. It's possible I missed a guy or two, so if I did please let me know.
If you accept that, then Jeter doesn't have much of a chance of catching even Trammell. I am not sure which is the correct way of doing things, and it obviously matters a fair bit for this sort of thing.
I personally don't agree with that sort of measurement. I will simply agree to disagree rather than hash out that argument again.
The other thing is that Ripken accumulated a lot of value by putting up average seasons, and then there's a question of the value of average in discussions of greatness.
Here are the CHONE WAR numbers:
8.1, 7.4, 6.6, 5.7, 5.5, 4.6, 4.6, 4.3, 4.0, 3.7, 3.3, 2.7, 2.4 - Jeter (62.4 total)
10.8, 9.4, 8.5, 6.8, 6.7, 6.0, 5.9, 4.4, 4.4, 4.4, 4.1, 3.5, 3.3, 3.2 ... - Ripken (91.2 total)
Total Zone adores Ripken (+180 on defense, with several +20 seasons). The system has a pretty standard vision of Jeter's defense, with several -20 seasons in the 2000-2003 era, and mostly between average and -10 the rest of the time. -125 overall. Which I guess is pretty damn bad. So with those numbers, it's not close.
So, how much difference does the defense make? Here's some of the better shortstops that are in the CHONE database:
8.1, 7.4, 6.6, 5.7, 5.5, 4.6, 4.6, 4.3, 4.0, 3.7, 3.3, 2.7, 2.4 - Jeter (62.4 total)
7.4, 6.6, 5.8, 5.7, 5.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.3, 4.1, 3.2, 3.1, 2.9, 2.7, 2.4, 2.1 ... - Ozzie Smith (67.6 total)
7.3, 6.5, 6.3, 5.9, 5.8, 5.4, 5.4, 4.9, 4.1, 4.0, 3.7, 3.0, 2.5 ... Barry Larkin (70.1 total)
8.4, 6.9, 6.8, 5.7, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 4.4, 4.0, 3.4, 2.9, 2.8, 2.4, 2.3 ... Alan Trammell (66.8 total)
In this measure, Jeter looks about even with Trammell (who has somewhat above average defense by TZ, +75 for his career with a couple +15 seasons) and slightly in front of Larkin and Ozzie.
It's hard for me to see Jeter as #4 with a bullet - no way he's ahead of George Davis with these numbers, for instance, or Pop Lloyd. Luke Appling probably tops him. And then you've got the split careers of Robin Yount, Ernie Banks, and Alex Rodriguez.
Wow. I wish I could see some UZR numbers for Ripken, but I guess that's not possible.
I will say, I don't buy that Jeter was that bad on defense. He wasn't good, but outside of the years he's played with injuries I don't think he's been a -15 or -20 fielder.
On offense, BP has him pretty close to Ripken on RAR (offense only). He'll probably pass him next year there. If Ripken really was as good as total zone has him, I don't think there's much chance of Jeter catching him, even not buying Jeter's defensive rankings.
Per Batting runs, which I've been using for the guys who played before AROM's data kicked in, Jeter's got a 3.4 win advantage (24.5 to 21.1). Baseball Almanac's biography says this about Appling's fielding:
He responded to the advice and guidance of White Sox Manager Jimmy Dykes and despite his shortcomings in the field, (he had a strong but inaccurate throwing arm and struggled at times with routine plays), went on to become a steady shortstop.
So I don't think it's likely that Appling is going to gain much ground on Jeter in the field. I think if Jeter hasn't passed Appling yet, he's going to soon.
And then you've got the split careers of Robin Yount, Ernie Banks, and Alex Rodriguez.
Banks only played 8 mostly full seasons at SS. Great peak and all, but I don't think he's got enough peak to outweigh Jeter's 14+ and counting years there. Per WAR, Jeter has already surpassed him in career value so you'd have to put a lot of weight on Banks' peak to rate him over Jeter.
11.4, 7.7, 6.4, 6.1, 5.4, 4.2, 2.3, 2.3... total 47.9
And ARod just at SS:
11.0, 9.6, 8.5, 8.1, 8.1, 8.0, 4.7, 4.6... total 61.9
I'd say there's absolutely no way for Jeter to pass ARod, and whether he can pass Yount depends on how you define greatness.
I'd agree with that.
and whether he can pass Yount depends on how you define greatness.
No doubt Yount had one of the greatest seasons ever at SS. But he also moved off the position and outside of that great season (which is not to say that it isn't a big deal), his numbers aren't especially better than Jeter's (Jeter's best 8 seasons at SS per WAR add up to 46.8, of course they are not all in a row if that's a big deal). I'd say, in my extremely biased opinion, that Jeter's 6 going on 7 extra seasons of roughly All-Star level play at SS makes up for Yount's absurd 1982.
EDIT: I see we've agreed on the above. And, yeah, on Yount, I think you've probably got the best of the case there, though Yount's also got two All-Star seasons in CF (~12 WAR in 88-89).
Absolutely, but the difference isn't that dramatic in this case, so it's a bit of a harder choice than that. Banks doesn't get to 60 in 9 like A-rod does. He does get to 51 in 8 though. Again, it's better than Jeter's best 8 seasons (and Yount's), but it's not SO much (4.2 wins over 8 seasons) better that you give Banks the peak credit that makes up for Jeter's career.
EDIT: I see that we're in agreement about this already. Didn't see that before I posted.
9.9, 9.3, 8.3, 6.9, 6.8, 5.8, 4.0 - total 51, add in +3 in 1954
8.1, 7.4, 6.6, 5.7, 5.5, 4.6, 4.6, 4.3, 4.0, 3.7, 3.3, 2.7, 2.4 - Jeter (62.4 total)
I definitely prefer Banks to Jeter on this. There's much no way for Jeter to beat Banks in best 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 seasons, however you want to measure peak/prime. A bunch of above average but not All-Star seasons aren't enough for me, but I can see the case for someone who wanted to count value that way.
The rest of Banks' career doesn't add much - he's basically just accumulating at 1B. Somehow I didn't quite realize that until tonight.
Oh, there's absolutely no way he beats Banks, I just don't think he's that far behind him. And if you add that last year for Banks, Jeter closes the gap a bit more over the best 9 years each played SS.
And there's always the chance that Jeter adds another 5-6 win season or two before he's done. He's on pace for one this year.
But if Banks has enough peak for you to close the argument, I can respect that.
I know the improvement started the last half of the year, but maybe that was noise? Maybe last year and this year are just noise or a fluke.
If Banks had been run over by a bus in 1963, would that allow him to be in the discussion?
By UZR, A-Rod hasn't really been an above-average 3B, save for 2004. Rodriguez/Ransom/et al have been worse, but the difference in less than half of a season between a slightly-below average and a well-below average 3B is only ~10 plays. And of those, it's conceivable that a SS would be able to make a play on only a small fraction (like less than 3). I just don't see how that could be what's driving Jeter's improved UZR (on a ball that gets past a 3B, if a SS can stop it from going into LF, he'll be getting to the ball so deep in the hole that he will almost never have a play at 1B--the only thing it does is possibly prevent a runner scoring from 2B, but I don't believe that's captured by UZR's methodology).
On the other hand, it's easier to envision where a 2B with limited range to his right might help make a SS look better (since the SS would have a better chance at recording an out on a ball he fields on the other side of 2B). Cano has been a below-average 2B in every season save 2007. But if that's a factor, I'm sure it's pretty small.
The more likely explanation is Teixeira (as you mentioned) and random chance.
Let's assume that Banks had died (or retired, if you want to be less morbid) right after the 1963 season.
His career stats would have been:
- 1500 G (1125 at SS)
- .283/.344/.535 (132 OPS+)
- 271 wRAA (25.6 per 600 PA)
- 353 HR and 1026 RBI in 6346 PA
- 2 MVP's and 8 ASG's in 10+ seasons
Still a HOFer (overwhelming peak), but how does he compare to Jeter (excluding post-season):
- 2048 G (2035 at SS)
- .316/.386/.458 (120 OPS+)
- 341 wRAA (21.8 per 600 PA)
- 215 HR and 1032 RBI in 9387 PA
- 0 MVP's and 9 ASG's in 13+ seasons
Basically leads us to the conclusion that Banks had a higher peak-value, Jeter had more career-value... exactly where one would expect to conclude. I see it as a coin-flip at this point with regards to whether Jeter ranks higher all-time or if Banks does. I consider myself more of a peak-voter, so I'd still lean toward Banks. But I certainly appreciate the argument for Jeter (particularly what he's done in the post-season) and he's still looks to have a couple more above-average seasons (although he should probably be moved from SS as he approaches 40).
EDIT: Neglected to include the best 5yr sum of wRAA:
Banks: 206 (1955-1959)
Jeter: 172 (1998-2002)
By the way, when the Hall of Merit voters ranked their shortstops last year, there was some discussion of where contemporary shortstops would rank. Links are
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/ranking_the_hall_of_merit_shortstops_discussion/
and
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/election_results_wagnerlloyd_ripken_vaughan_davis_dahlen_and_yount_get_at_l/
In particular, Dan's numbers (converted to "dollars" by 1.2M * WARP^1.5 +.38M, in order to more heavily weight peak) are post 9 of the discussion thread. Of course, at that point he was only considering statistics through 2007, so Jeter has another $9M or so from last year and is probably going to get more than that this year.
Depends. Greyhound or Trailways?
But didn't the article say that he has been an awful defensive SS for years till he decided to work at excrsizes that would help him improve.
That is not what i would cal a great work ethic.
ahead of GWright-Cronin-Banks-Wells-HRJohnson-OSmith-Trammell etc
So right in the middle of the top 15 if he quits today, or immediately falls off so badly that the rest of his playing doesn't add value (not bloody likely)
Jeter's has a 845 OPS in the regular season and 846 in the postseason, btw
I'm not trying to discount time at other positions, I count Yount as a shortstop, I even guess at how long it will take him to catch Yount in post 21, but I do think that when you're measuring individual seasons, you can't really stack up Yount's years as a CFer vs. Jeter's time at SS. I also count Banks as a SS, but Banks' time at first is irrelevant so it just got left out.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/ranking_the_hall_of_merit_shortstops_discussion/
Interesting list. And it highlights why I don't buy into this Dan R's argument. I have a hard time believing Reese makes up the 24 wins he's giving up to Jeter offensively with his glove and yet Dan has him at nearly 40 million more than Jeter as of last year. A lot of that has to be replacement level at SS (which as far as I can tell is only adjusted offensively which I don't think is right if you're going to adjust replacement level constantly, I bet defensive replacements at SS were better in certain eras than others) and it doesn't jive with me. Jeter was a better player relative to the entire Major League population at the time he played and I think that should count regardless of how good the other shortstops were at the time. Some of those numbers just do not jive with me. I do not believe either Trammel or Smith was as good as one and half of Jeter's career up until 2007. We have tons of data from many different sources that say as of right now they all had similar value in their careers and then when Dan tweaks the replacement level it makes a massive difference. I respect the work Dan did which took a lot of effort and I respect the concept, but for me personally this is why I'm not buying into his system, it's an extreme outlier here.
agreed, if you don't then these discussions will have a limited pool of players, and in some ways a few of the greatest players of all time won't be allowed to participate in these discussions (Stan Musial, Yount, Arod, Banks, Rose, etc)
But didn't the article say that he has been an awful defensive SS for years till he decided to work at excrsizes that would help him improve.
That is not what i would cal a great work ethic.
it's also just as likely that he didn't realize his defense was that bad so was just doing his normal workout routine until he heard grumblings not just from the stat community but scouts and decided there may just be something to the stuff that the stat heads have been saying, and then concentrated on his defense a little better.
1. My defensive numbers for post-1987 seasons are calculated by using the weighted average of defensive statistics (such as Chris Dial's Zone Rating-based RSpt, AROM's TotalZone, Dan Fox's SFR, etc., plus regression to the mean, that best matches an average of modern play-by-play metrics (MGL's UZR, John Dewan's Plus/Minus, and David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range). As those statistics themselves become available (UZR in 2000, Dewan in 2003, Pinto in 2004) they replace the figures used to estimate them.
2. I don't know what outdated version of UZR is being referred to here--I am using stats provided to me by MGL in 2008.
3. My replacement level calculations take into account defense as well as offense. The methodology is, to repeat:
a. Determine the wins above average per full season played (calculated as batting wins above league average, plus baserunning wins above league average, plus fielding wins above positional average per 162 games) for the worst 3/8 of MLB regulars at a position over a nine-year period centered on the year in question.
b. Determine the wins above average per full season played for the worst 3/8 of MLB regulars at the same position from 1987-2005.
c. Subtract the result of b from the wins above average per full season played of Freely Available players at the same position from 1987-2005 (defined as players over age 27 making less than twice the league minimum salary).
d. Add the result of c to a.
e. Repeat the process for all positions, and multiply the resulting replacement levels by a constant to keep the overall replacement level for position players the same from year to year.
4. Cowboy Popup, if you don't apply these adjustments, you will find that what, half of MLB starting shortstops in the 1970's and 80's were below replacement level. That seems like a contradiction in terms to me.
Yeah, that's my impression too, and I think Jeter deserves a lot of credit for taking these criticisms seriously. I wonder how aware Jeter was of the stat head view before the last two seasons. I assume he doesn't visit sites like this and is not into advanced metrics, etc, so I wonder who would have told him about the stat head criticisms besides beat writers who it seems only recently became aware of them. Meanwhile, Jeter was getting gold gloves and had the Tim McCarvers of the world talking about how great he was out there. He must have thought he was a great fielder, so I am impressed that he was willing to change his approach after he heard that he actually sucked out there.
If Banks had been run over by a bus in 1963, would that allow him to be in the discussion?
Whatever the reason, as noted in post # 39 Banks played so few games at SS that he doesn't measure up in career value when compared to those that had lengthy careers there. Jeter will almost certainly end up with more than twice as many games at SS than Banks. There's more than one way to look at it, but IMHO the case for Banks is too close to arguing that Babe Ruth belongs on the list of greatest left-handed pitchers.
Well, he may or may not, depending on to whom he's being compared and exactly how one chooses to weigh the data. But what I'm taking issue with is the blanket statement that simply because Banks played most of his ML games at 1B, he should be dismissed from the shortstop discussion.
Obviously Banks's relatively short career as a SS will count against him. But whether he spent the rest of his life playing 1B or playing bass fiddle isn't relevant to the consideration of what he accomplished when he was playing SS.
Every couple years there used to be an article where some jackoff interviewed Jeter and told him the stats said he sucked, and what was his response? and he would say he doesn't agree, and the stats don't account for this and that.
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